CFL Syndicate 2025

DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I read the headline of a piece the other day , made me sick to my stomach so I didn't open it ..From the sounds of it I should of ..

Love the CFL, my grandfather and dad used to take me to Hamilton games as a kid , we had a distant relative who played for 6 or 7 seasons ...

HATE what the NFL has become in so many ways , the CFL is so refreshing.
Click to expand...
I feel the same. I mean where I grew up all we had was CFL. I never saw my first NFL game until I was about 13.

The NFL is obviously played by the world's greatest athletes but its become so slick and overproduced its hard to take. The draft alone has gotten so over-the-top silly its hard not to laugh at it.

CFL players you can identify with. They are making about $100k on average. Working men that play for the love of the game. After the 99 Grey Cup that Hamilton won in Vancouver we went to the team hotel and partied with the players late into the night. What other pro league could you do that?
 
Hulu said:
1* MTL / HAM over 48.5 -110

This total has dropped due to the forecast but I actually am willing to take a chance here that the rain holds off until the end or doesn't come down heavy. Both these teams can score and I think the right number is about 52.

Good luck to all.
Click to expand...
The overs have been so strong and lines increasing so a total under 50 is going to be rare going forward

I’m hope for early scoring so I can under in game late.

Best wishes I’m rooting for all of us

Dogs 4-9 ats so I’m going to be disappointed if I lose but that’s life.
 
Last edited:
BC Saskatchewan

BC will be a dog again the next week and Saskatchewan has a bye.

I’ve made a bunch the last 2 games and with the favorites still Turnt up I’m not chancing it in the dark. If the in-game line is good I’ll play it.
I’m don’t like teams that are dogs a lot. Last few years it’s not fruitful.

Sunday

I don’t like Ottawa as a chalk and the Argos I do t know if they will find the right bus. They are lost. It’s best to keep my money. I love to play but I hate losing on teams that keep showing up as dogs. BC and Toronto seem to be trending that way so far. BC I have hope for but the Argos ? Not at the moment.

One other note BC is still at the top of the bad teams in terms of odds to win it so that’s why I hesitate.

Seems like low scoring 1st trend for 2nd half overs. Some teams like Ottawa can score but can’t get stops.

There is opportunity in these games so I will be watching.

With the overs at 2-0 and the overs still trending I wouldn’t be shocked to see all overs this week

I’m basically saying stay away until the trend turns, I love unders but that ship has sailed. Until I see 55.5 totals and higher like before 2020 that’s when the undersROI trended hard.
 
Weather in Sask today...small chance of rain and t-storms but some major winds. Mosaic field seems to be the least wind affected stadium in the league though with its design.

1751120119376.png
 
Can't get involved in today's game. No idea how Jake Maier will look. He's a decent QB and probably better coming off the bench than being a full-time starter but its anybody's guess. And on the other side Rourke is a GTD. Of he plays and looks healthy BC should be able to take this game but it will be high scoring because their defence is awful. If Rourke doesn't start or has aggrivates his oblique and has to leave early, then its up to a washed up Masoli or Chase Bryce.

No idea how to play this one so I'll sit it out and watch for live opportunities.
 
2nd H overs 9-5

4th Q points= 266 thru 14 games average 19 per game
I am in support of the overs but the first half second half scoring currently is lopsided
 
BC's last 2 games both 2nd Half unders

BC combined last 2 games only, below:
half 26 and 21 points
4th Q :
6 week 2
15 week 3
21 points

BC game 1 was very low scoring until the (second half 35 points) 10 in first half vs elks
 
Seeing that Toronto has ruled out Chad Kelly until at least week 7. That means their first matchup with Hamilton in week 5 will have Arbuckle or someone else starting. I love my Hamilton season series bet more now. I got it at +200 but I'd be curious to see what number they put up now. Maybe -110?
 
Found a bet I really like for tomorrow. I'll post it after the game tonight. My bankroll is a bit on the low side so I want to reserve funds in case a live number looks good tonight.
 
I just bet under 24 first half. I don’t see both halves over but anything is possible. If scoring is strong early i believe the 4thQ might slow.

If the trend continues tonight it wins if not a late under at a bigger line is very possible. I go small on pregame plays as the better lines are late.

If the better line never happens I have a stronger chance of a win


Over betting thoughts is wait until after kickoff these first halves start slow. Even if the first drive is a TD it’s not like the First halves start on fire most often.
 
Rourke out, Masoli starting. Whatever he may have once been, he's washed up now and I'll take Maier and the Riders defence at home. Without Rourke, BC is a well below average team.

1* Saskatchewan ML -135
 
Finally having a decent week. I'll go with one more tomorrow. The theme this year has been 1H under, 2H over which is a switcharoo from previous years and I don't think it holds long term. But in tomorrow's game we have 2 teams that have been the poster children for this. Through 3 games Toronto games have averaged 19.3 pts in the 1H while Ottawa games have averaged 17.7 pts. Only once have either of these teams eclipsed 26.5 in a 1H this season. Its Dustin Crum vs Nick Arbuckle. I'll pay to see them put up 27 points in a half.

1* TOR / OTT 1H under 26.5 -120
 
Getting down an early bet for week 5 because I think this number moves.

1* Winnipeg -3 -115

I made this -5.5 and even though Calgary is off a bye, the disparity between these 2 teams is huge. Winnipeg looks like an absolute force again and Calgary, while looking somewhat better than expected, is still a well below average team. I think the Bombers win this one handily.
 
0.5* Live Ottawa +8 -107

Taken in 2Q with Ottawa down 11-0 after Toronto's 100 yard scoop and score
 
Results through Week 4

Sides 3-6 -4.00*
Totals 2-3 -2.00*
Parlays 3-1 +2.75*
Live 1-6 -3.37*

Overall 9-16 -6.62*

Went 0-2 in week 3 and 4-1 in week 4 to climb back a little. Slowly but surely I'll get there.

Already down for week 5...
1* Winnipeg -3 -115


Futures
0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200 - first game in wk5. Toronto still without Kelly, on a 5 day week and missing several players.
0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104 - 1-3 after week 4
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards - 213 yards through week 4 - on pace for 959
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards - 55 yards through week 4 - on pace for 330
 
I just saw you are also on WPG next week. I am leaning the other side but before I commit I’m thinking in-game with a better line, we might have enough room to both get the win.


Some things that I don’t know if you thought about.

Calgary home game loss to Zottawa only scoring 12 points

Calgary bye week

Now again Calgary home off a bye week

Calgary :
No travel for 3rd week
Tons of rest
Off a terrible loss. Line only -3?

I’m not confident betting against WPG so we’ll see.

VAJ issues:
Many many and I think I’ll ask you how is the Calgary offensive line? Only scoring 12 last week certainly some sort of issue..

I know VAJ is a turnover Machine but he also can make things happen. Certainly after Meier last year the mistakes are still showing up but the higher upside is with VAJ.

WPG in away games at Calgary 2-12 Straight up last 14 games in Cowtown.

Now I will say these games all too place in the regular season before week19. I’ll show the photo.

Also of note WPG has only been an away favorite in Calgary 5 times and both of their 2 wins were as favorites. 2-3 as favorites is a little better of course but still when laying points to have a losing record is an issue.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_4100.jpeg
    IMG_4100.jpeg
    156.8 KB · Views: 3
My analysis on the game and line so far is at some point and most likely in game I’ll stab a bet on Calgary but only +3 ? No not when I can most likely do better.

At 2-1 Calgary can be 3-1 ? Maybe but I’d be surprised. Especially after A 20-12 loss to Ottawa.
 
spottie2935 said:
I just saw you are also on WPG next week. I am leaning the other side but before I commit I’m thinking in-game with a better line, we might have enough room to both get the win.


Some things that I don’t know if you thought about.

Calgary home game loss to Zottawa only scoring 12 points

Calgary bye week

Now again Calgary home off a bye week

Calgary :
No travel for 3rd week
Tons of rest
Off a terrible loss. Line only -3?

I’m not confident betting against WPG so we’ll see.

VAJ issues:
Many many and I think I’ll ask you how is the Calgary offensive line? Only scoring 12 last week certainly some sort of issue..

I know VAJ is a turnover Machine but he also can make things happen. Certainly after Meier last year the mistakes are still showing up but the higher upside is with VAJ.

WPG in away games at Calgary 2-12 Straight up last 14 games in Cowtown.

Now I will say these games all too place in the regular season before week19. I’ll show the photo.

Also of note WPG has only been an away favorite in Calgary 5 times and both of their 2 wins were as favorites. 2-3 as favorites is a little better of course but still when laying points to have a losing record is an issue.
Click to expand...

Its definitely a good spot for Calgary and traditionally they are strong at home off a bye but a lot of that record goes back to when they were good. To me the bottom line is that these 2 teams are in completely different leagues and Calgary is very overrated right now.

So far if you look at Calgary's schedule, they beat a Hamilton team that shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in week 1. In week 2 they won on the road against an Argos team with Arbuckle at QB and multiple defensive starters out. Then in week 3 they lost at home to Ottawa and Dustin Crum. Sure this team is 2-1 but I don't think they are very good.

VAj has looked better than Maier did last year but he hasn't exactly looked good. He's hitting <65% of his attempts and has no TDs to 3 INTs. That kind of play won't fly against a Bombers team that looks league best right now.

Calgary, already coming into the year with a thin and young receiving corps is without their best receiver Reggie Begelton as well as Malik Henry leaving them with a very inexperienced group. Last week they lost their MLB Gary Johnson jr who has been the centrepiece of their defence. They signed Adam Bighill off the scrap heap but he will not be suiting up in this game so they have a big hole to fill there.

Winnipeg is mostly healthy and looks to be getting Brady Oliveira back this week. Collaros looks to be in mid-season form and once again has a great receiving corps. The defence is solid, especially the secondary.

All in all, I just think Winnipeg is a better team on every level and the disparity is enough to override the situational advantages Calgary has here. Strictly by the numbers, I would have made this Winnipeg -7.5 on a neutral. With HFA and the bye, I made it -5.5. I think -3 has value but I doubt I would take it at -3.5.
 
My current power rankings after week 4. This is with several backup QBs. Its the have vs the have-nots. 3 teams at the top and then everyone else well below them.

Rourke would be a 6pt upgrade in BC.
Brown would be a 4.5pt upgrade in Ottawa.
Kelly would be a 4 point upgrade in Toronto.
Harris would be a 2.5pt upgrade in Sask.
Alexander would be a 3.5pt upgrade in Montreal.

Already 5/9 teams starting backup QBs. Lets hope its not another one of those years.

Winnipeg +5.5
Montreal +2.5
Saskatchewan +2.0
Calgary -2.0
Hamilton -2.0
Edmonton -3.0
Toronto -3.5
Ottawa -3.5
BC Lions -5.0

eta: re-evaluated and made some minor adjustments. Power rankings are always in flux.
 
Last edited:
Through 4 weeks overs lead the way 9-7.

Average total is 49.6 to an average score of 52.3, a 2.7pt difference.

Overs will continue to cash IMO until the market adjusts and I have one I like this week but need more info on player availability before I hit it.

The number of starting QBs currently out is hurting things but as they come back we will have some great value on overs.
 
Last edited:
I don’t think you’re going to get a better number than -3 and not only do I respect that number not to touch it. I respect your mind on all of this.

I made my points so no need to be redundant.

What I am looking for? I want this line to sky rocket up. Then I want Winnipeg to start the game with a Collaros score.

I’m not betting +3 even if I am right that Winnipeg might look better than they appear all the Calgary appearances as you say make me hesitate at +3. Not only what you say but A loss to Ottawa tags Calgary poorly. Not only a loss but a home loss and only 12 points.

I think Calgary has a lot of advantages and I think Winnipeg COULD be overrated but looking at the QB position to date Collaros is one of the best.

I poured over all the data and the first half should be close. That’s the bottom line for me. If WPG gets up early at the half I have a better line and an indication on the teams head to head. If it’s close the I still have an opportunity with a half of information and if Calgary has the lead I missed it and won’t play it.

With all the QB injuries so far that does move VAJ up on the quality list. On the flip side the quality is very poor at the moment.

The WR’s issue? A lot of time off iand no travel creates an opportunity for them to get congruent. They need to step up. This is certainly info that’s in the dark.

Winnipegs last 2 games in Calgary were wins but that was with Maier at QB. Is that anything. Again in the dark.

+3 isn’t enough but there might be a Calgary opportunity.

Thanks for your thoughts and time.
 
spottie2935 said:
I don’t think you’re going to get a better number than -3 and not only do I respect that number not to touch it. I respect your mind on all of this.

I made my points so no need to be redundant.

What I am looking for? I want this line to sky rocket up. Then I want Winnipeg to start the game with a Collaros score.

I’m not betting +3 even if I am right that Winnipeg might look better than they appear all the Calgary appearances as you say make me hesitate at +3. Not only what you say but A loss to Ottawa tags Calgary poorly. Not only a loss but a home loss and only 12 points.

I think Calgary has a lot of advantages and I think Winnipeg COULD be overrated but looking at the QB position to date Collaros is one of the best.

I poured over all the data and the first half should be close. That’s the bottom line for me. If WPG gets up early at the half I have a better line and an indication on the teams head to head. If it’s close the I still have an opportunity with a half of information and if Calgary has the lead I missed it and won’t play it.

With all the QB injuries so far that does move VAJ up on the quality list. On the flip side the quality is very poor at the moment.

The WR’s issue? A lot of time off iand no travel creates an opportunity for them to get congruent. They need to step up. This is certainly info that’s in the dark.

Winnipegs last 2 games in Calgary were wins but that was with Maier at QB. Is that anything. Again in the dark.

+3 isn’t enough but there might be a Calgary opportunity.

Thanks for your thoughts and time.
Click to expand...
All good thoughts. I think this number will move Winnipeg's way and you might be able to get a +4.5 or even better on Calgary by gameday
 
This line will be -5 or by kickoff in my opinion and part of my opinion is very wishful

What if it’s -6 and Winnipeg starts 7-0? I get +13 what if I dabble +13 and Winnipeg scores again 10-0 14-0 ? Then I can add to make a full unit. I mean at this point the +3 isn’t trash and I still have a decent opportunity at +10 and another bet higher than +10. The score usntvwhat I want but increasing odds and the craziness in the CFL is sitting in a better position.

Even if the game starts 3-0 Winnipeg I can get +7.5

Okok enough on this just sharing my thoughts. It not only helps me but I am giving you clarity on my thoughts.
 
Toronto as A favorite? I really don’t need to dig too much on this one.

One thing of note here do the dogs start 2-0 because that I don’t think is possible the way flits trending. I also need to search the status on home favorites season records.

This might be a dog spot. Of note the line is small so a line switch is possible here. I could lock in now I guess that’s the move. Bo Levi is in place as the starter is Kelly back?
 
I don’t need to lock in on BC yet. +5.5 appears nice. The other games need to close out before I get involved here. I was peeking into the data earlier but I got busy. Early looks was Against Montreal but now I’m on 3 dogs. Montreals schedule has been daily soft but that’s why Montreal is a favorite every week. Individual and past team data is useless on the because for a long while Montreal has been a doormat.
 
Hamilton scheduled previous opponents 2025 record, 9-2 that’s something eh?

We all know the Argos problems but these teams both have faced these teams :
SSK 4-0
MTL 3-1
CGY 2-1
The difference is Agos extra game against Ott to get their first win.

That win has made the Argos relevant in the linesmakers eye giving them a tag if -1.5 here and of course the Rivalry on the holiday week.

I think part of this line relates back to last season.
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
Toronto as A favorite? I really don’t need to dig too much on this one.

One thing of note here do the dogs start 2-0 because that I don’t think is possible the way flits trending. I also need to search the status on home favorites season records.

This might be a dog spot. Of note the line is small so a line switch is possible here. I could lock in now I guess that’s the move. Bo Levi is in place as the starter is Kelly back?
Click to expand...
Kelly is out until at least week 7. Mitchell is starting for Hamilton.

I lean Hamilton in this one but I already have a season series bet at +200 and this is the key game I was hoping Hamilton could win + the labour day game to get me that series win so I doubt I'll play it unless the line gets more favourable.
 
spottie2935 said:
I don’t need to lock in on BC yet. +5.5 appears nice. The other games need to close out before I get involved here. I was peeking into the data earlier but I got busy. Early looks was Against Montreal but now I’m on 3 dogs. Montreals schedule has been daily soft but that’s why Montreal is a favorite every week. Individual and past team data is useless on the because for a long while Montreal has been a doormat.
Click to expand...
Hard to bet on this game until we have QB clarity. I suspect Rourke will be back for BC but not sure about who is going for Montreal. We will have at least some idea tomorrow evening when the initial practice reports come out.

If its Rourke vs MBT, then I would lean BC at anything over 3. But I like the over even more. MBT wasn't able to show anything vs Hamilton last week but Hamilton's defence played much better than they had to start the season. BC has no defence. They can't stop the run or pass. So I think MBT will have a better time against them. And with Rourke back, BC will have no choice but to try and win in a track meet. I could see a 30-27 type game.
 
There is some strong data on the Montreal under so your analysis on the over is good info. There is more to this than just numbers.

Additionally Montreal is supported by the data but these teams both data list is very small. Good teams after a loss find a way back to get wins.

In the back of my mind is the weak Montreal past opponents. Like you said though the Qb issues.
in-game opportunities here in this one will provide better rationale and possibly a better line.

I’d like to see what has transpired in the other games this week, before chunking down in this one. The home favorites and away favorites are both 5-3 ats. Add to this the overs at 9-7. I would guess, the books are not getting killed but I assume they are losing money on the games so far.

I am with you on Hamilton. Historically on data: both these 1-3 teams with the regression team off a great season is the Argos. The other thing about this game is Hamilton just beat Montreal and a dog again here and their next is a home game to Ottawa. That alone makes this a very strong data play.

It appears that Hamilton will be my best bet this week. When we agree it’s most often something great. ✅
 
The Elks are home dogs and home dogs next week. The data is 12-27 ats for the dog here so that means Ottawa. I’m going to get ahead of myself a minute here but a dig after being sn away favorite is pretty strong so next week could be the Hamilton failure to Ottawa. Maybe only ATS though. Away favorites are great dogs.
 
Last edited:
One last though the Lions lead the league in failed teaser covers dating back to the beginning of last year. 13 failures. The next teams have 8 (Bombers, Argos, Redblacks)

With so many failures the lines should start becoming more generous, especially after and consecutive ATS failure(s).
 
According to the data the 2nd best dog bet is BC. If WPG covers in the first game of the week that increases my thinking that one if not both dogs cover in the next to games. Hamilton and BC would become more valued dogs. In my opinion of course.
 
Alright, injury reports are out and Toronto looks to be as banged up as last week with the exception of Parrish coming back at DE. I think this is Hamilton's game.

.5*/.5* Hamilton +2 / ML -111 / +113
 
According to Farhan Lalji, Rourke was taking the majority of 1st team snaps at practice today and had no restrictions. That's what I wanted to hear. I paid an extra .02 to take this at a book where I can cash out if the situation changes.

1* BC / MON over 49.5 -110
 
All indications are that Hamilton will finally have Reggie Stubblefield in the lineup for the first time this season. He was one of their key offseason signings and is expected to lock down the SAM position. He was coming off a serious knee injury LY but is finally practising fully this week. We'll know by Thursday when the depth charts come out.
 
Lions have been out scored in the first half 23-58.

Lions have scored 3 1st qtr points on the season

In game 1 vs the Elks (in the first qtr) they got stuffed at the 1 yard line on 3rd down.
 
The current Lions ats status is the worst in the league at 5-12 ats, yes I manipulated the data to a certain date. The key here for this is the Average Lions spread in these last 17 games is 3rd at an average of -1.4 per game.
 
spottie2935 said:
The current Lions ats status is the worst in the league at 5-12 ats, yes I manipulated the data to a certain date. The key here for this is the Average Lions spread in these last 17 games is 3rd at an average of -1.4 per game.
Click to expand...
Yeah not surprising that the lions were massively overrated last year when Rourke came back from the NFL but didn't return to his 2022 form.
 
Hulu said:
All indications are that Hamilton will finally have Reggie Stubblefield in the lineup for the first time this season. He was one of their key offseason signings and is expected to lock down the SAM position. He was coming off a serious knee injury LY but is finally practising fully this week. We'll know by Thursday when the depth charts come out.
Click to expand...
Further to this, the ti-cats dumped DB Siriman Bagayogo which is a good indication that Stubblefield will be added to the roster. Only question now is whether he starts in place of Brenden Dozier (a substantial upgrade at SAM) or is a depth piece for another week.
 
Hulu said:
Yeah not surprising that the lions were massively overrated last year when Rourke came back from the NFL but didn't return to his 2022 form.
Click to expand...
and +5 in this game should be a reversal to that. In my opinion With Rourke back its a minimum fair value
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top