CFL Syndicate 2021

guaranteeed said:
I saw Naylor talking about how passes over 30 yards were up around 40% last week on the season average so far

I wonder if the offenses are finally catching up to the defenses and we see a bit of an over run
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That's fantastic. Watching the games I really thought that as well. Even the WPG/SSK game, though finishing well under, looked wide open enough that I hit the over again live. Turned out to be a loser but I wasn't imagining it...offenses are starting to open up.

I would say Edmonton, Sask, Hamilton, & Montreal are all looking like they are finding their way. BC too if they can get their OL healthy again and receivers back.
 
guaranteeed said:
First glance but bc number seems high
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I thought the opposite. I made it 9.

Ottawa is like the Cleveland Browns of a few years back...just so tempting to bet them at a big + number every week but in reality they just suck. Other than their fluke win in Edmonton, they haven't kept a game within 10 yet and now the only thing they have going for them, their defense, is getting dinged and was eaten alive by VAj last week. I think that game broke their backs so to speak. They suck...they always knew it but now they really know it and a trip across the country to face a BC team off a bye is not the place they are going to get any better I'm afraid.

Now they do have Dominique Davis starting but he is inconsistent at best. They might be able to put up a few more points than with Nichols at the helm but they'll almost certainly give up a couple of turnovers. No way I can bet this team.

I can't see betting BC either though because I don't know the status of their OL and without Figeroa and Matthews it looked really bad. And they really need Lamar Durant in the offense, he is a bread and butter guy that is really missed.
 
Hulu said:
I thought the opposite. I made it 9.

Ottawa is like the Cleveland Browns of a few years back...just so tempting to bet them at a big + number every week but in reality they just suck. Other than their fluke win in Edmonton, they haven't kept a game within 10 yet and now the only thing they have going for them, their defense, is getting dinged and was eaten alive by VAj last week. I think that game broke their backs so to speak. They suck...they always knew it but now they really know it and a trip across the country to face a BC team off a bye is not the place they are going to get any better I'm afraid.

Now they do have Dominique Davis starting but he is inconsistent at best. They might be able to put up a few more points than with Nichols at the helm but they'll almost certainly give up a couple of turnovers. No way I can bet this team.

I can't see betting BC either though because I don't know the status of their OL and without Figeroa and Matthews it looked really bad. And they really need Lamar Durant in the offense, he is a bread and butter guy that is really missed.
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Oline issues was what I was thinking, not a huge fan of davis but anything is an upgrade on nichols, who looked like drew brees from last year, no zip.

I wouldnt take Ottawa, like you said they are trying to reel people in on what is a real bad team, just dont see trusting bc at that number right now
 
guaranteeed said:
Oline issues was what I was thinking, not a huge fan of davis but anything is an upgrade on nichols, who looked like drew brees from last year, no zip.

I wouldnt take Ottawa, like you said they are trying to reel people in on what is a real bad team, just dont see trusting bc at that number right now
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Over might be worth a sniff if Davis can open up the offense a bit against BC's average defense. And he might be good for a pick-6 in there too.

In fact every over might be worth a look this week with these historically low totals. Before this year their had been maybe 5 or 6 totals under 45 in the last 12 seasons and now they're all down there. This has to change. I think it started last week with overs going 3-1 and I see it happening again this week.

Maybe I should parlay all the overs.
 
Major books should be releasing lines this morning. I took small, max bets on some early numbers at regal. CGY/EDM over 40.5 and SSK/WPG over 38.5.

38.5 is like an live line when the score is 7-0 at the end of a first quarter. These numbers are absolutely insane.
 
Hulu said:
Major books should be releasing lines this morning. I took small, max bets on some early numbers at regal. CGY/EDM over 40.5 and SSK/WPG over 38.5.

38.5 is like an live line when the score is 7-0 at the end of a first quarter. These numbers are absolutely insane.
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I cant remember a number under 40, I'm sure theres been a few but wow, I think I'm gonna go over in all 4 and I would be surprised if 3 of these games dont hit at least mid 40s, which with where the lines are is a win

We may look back in october and think it's crazy when we are back to low 50s on some games
 
Hulu said:
Over might be worth a sniff if Davis can open up the offense a bit against BC's average defense. And he might be good for a pick-6 in there too.

In fact every over might be worth a look this week with these historically low totals. Before this year their had been maybe 5 or 6 totals under 45 in the last 12 seasons and now they're all down there. This has to change. I think it started last week with overs going 3-1 and I see it happening again this week.

Maybe I should parlay all the overs.
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Very average d for the Lions, davis is a bit like VAj where hes streaky and when hes off hes really off, but turnovers in this league usually means points, all he needs though isnto be on for 3 or 4 drives and we get Ottawa into the high teens which may be all it takes for the over

No Durant hurts for bc, all OL except Broxton at least practiced this week, burnham and Whitehead should get a lot of looks this weekend and I dont think Ottawa has the talent back there to contain em
 
guaranteeed said:
Very average d for the Lions, davis is a bit like VAj where hes streaky and when hes off hes really off, but turnovers in this league usually means points, all he needs though isnto be on for 3 or 4 drives and we get Ottawa into the high teens which may be all it takes for the over

No Durant hurts for bc, all OL except Broxton at least practiced this week, burnham and Whitehead should get a lot of looks this weekend and I dont think Ottawa has the talent back there to contain em
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I heard a stat that Davis has had 9 starts and thrown 14 or 16 picks so he’s good for 1 a game at least. And BC leads the league in INTs right now.

We’ll have to see the status of Ottawa’s secondary but if Kanneh and Baltimore are out again, they have no chance of containing Reilly and co.
 
1* Hamilton +3 -115

Cats were -3.5 on the early lines and that is probably about right. Can't imagine how anyone thinks the Argos are 3 points better...even at home
 
And a trio of overs.

1* HAM / TOR o47 -108
1* CGY / EDM o46 -110
1* OTT / BC o46 -110

Can't bring myself to take an over in Winnipeg. They are an under team through and through. I think I can go at least 2-1 with these.
 
Hulu said:
1* Hamilton +3 -115

Cats were -3.5 on the early lines and that is probably about right. Can't imagine how anyone thinks the Argos are 3 points better...even at home
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Adding another half unit to this. Toronto still with a weak DL and injuries in the secondary, at receiver and on the OL. Peter Nicastro, a 2021 draft pick will be starting at C.

The Argos might eek out a win here but Hamilton will be in it to the end. 10 out of the last 16 contests between these 2 have been decided in the final 3 mins.

Full bet now as follows...

1.5* Hamilton +3 -114
 
SportsInteraction is asleep at the switch still holding Hamilton -3.5 even as every other book I have has them dogged. So I grabbed a half unit on the Toronto ML for a possible middle.

0.5* Toronto ML +142
 
Hulu said:
SportsInteraction is asleep at the switch still holding Hamilton -3.5 even as every other book I have has them dogged. So I grabbed a half unit on the Toronto ML for a possible middle.

0.5* Toronto ML +142
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Hah they realized their mistake overnight but I got a nice middle opp out of it.

Meanwhile the line has dropped to 1.5 which is probably about right. I have no idea who was betting Toronto up to 3 but thats just wrong.

Finally injury reports are in and Hamilton without Banks as well as CB Ciante Evans but I think Channing Stribling will fill in just fine there. Banks has not been the major force of their offence like he was in 2019 and looks to have lost a step so him being out is not as big a deal as it would've been LY.
 
0.25* Prop Tim White (Ham) over 55.5 Rec yds -120

I think Timmy will be the biggest beneficiary of Banks absence and he can make YAC yards as good as anyone.
 
With a half hour to kickoff I can get Sask +3 again and boy its tempting. Everyone talking about the 2 DBs they are missing but WPG has a whole slate of guys listed as questionable and with Micah Johnson back in the middle, Sask should have a better chance of shutting down the run game which is where the Bombers begin their offense.

Still thinking on this one.
 
Results after week 6

Sides 10-5 +5.11*
Totals 9-3 +5.75*
Live/2H 5-5 -0.735*
Tease/Parlay 0-2 -1.50*
Player Props 0-2 -0.875*

Overall 24-17 +7.75*

Advantage over Close
Sides +21.5
Totals +8.0

Much better week. 6-3 for 3.78*. But it took a couple of miracles to get iot done and my capping was not as good as it needs to be. I'm going to be cautious this week until I understand things better.
 
Here's what I see for week 7 early lines...

CGY @ HAM no line 39.5
TOR @ SSK -5.5 43.5
BC @ MTL -0.5?? 48.5
WPG @ EDM +6.5 38.5

No line in Hamilton presumably because we don't know who will be starting at QB. I have it on pretty good authority that Masoli is fine and will be available. After watching Calgary devour the Elks OL today, I think they have a field day with Hamilton's. Right now, Calgary as a dog would be very tempting but then again, Hamilton plays so good at home usually.

Who will be QB for Sask. If it turns out to be Isaac Harker, I think -5.5 is way too high. Both teams defenses riddled with injuries too so that could be a sneaky over play.

Montreal is -0.5? Not sure I've ever seen that before. Maybe an error? Anyway, that could be a good over game but when the big boys release it, the number could be way higher. It has been in most cases this year.
 
well done Hulu I split this week and on Paper this week looks to suit me a bit better.

18-15 on the year is sub par. I got tangled in the overs too much and that is holding me back. My sides are keeping pace with you.
 
spottie2935 said:
well done Hulu I split this week and on Paper this week looks to suit me a bit better.

18-15 on the year is sub par. I got tangled in the overs too much and that is holding me back. My sides are keeping pace with you.
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AGreed my friuend. I think totals are a crap shoot right now. Better to stick to sides where motivation is more in play.
 
Here's what Regal has up for week 7

CGY @ HAM -2.5 40.5
TOR @ SSK -3.5 43.5
BC @ MTL +1.5 49.5
WPG @ EDM +8.5 38.5

From that MTL +1.5, EDM +8.5 and the overs in Hamilton and Sask look to have value.
 
Hulu said:
Here's what Regal has up for week 7

CGY @ HAM -2.5 40.5
TOR @ SSK -3.5 43.5
BC @ MTL +1.5 49.5
WPG @ EDM +8.5 38.5

From that MTL +1.5, EDM +8.5 and the overs in Hamilton and Sask look to have value.
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And here are the early numbers from SI

CGY @ HAM off the board
TOR @ SSK -5 42.5
BC @ MTL pk 48.5
WPG @ EDM +6.5 41.5
 
Some thoughts while we wait for lines. Not surprised to not see them today with 2 teams having QB questions and another having covid questions.

CGY@HAM
To me this is a classic situation of one team getting its shit together (Calgary) vs a team who is suddenly is disarray (Hamilton). We still don't know who will be starting for the cats and although it will likely be Masoli, that is not determined yet as he has been dealing with elbow stifness as well as some sort of abdominal injury and has been limited in practice this week. So even if he starts, he will not be 100%. And where is his head at after losing his starting job to Evans and then getting it back via injury? If its David Watford, he can play a little but is not going to keep up with the stamps, especially with this horrible OL. Speaking of the OL, as if it wasn't bad enough, LT Kay 'the pylon' Okafor has been limited in practice all week with a hand injury. Also not practicing this week...Brandon Banks, Ted Laurent, Sean-Thomas Erlington and punter Joel Whitford, a tidbit I missed last week but it definitely hurt them as Domagala was not stellar at punting (or converts for that matter). There are some bright spots for Hamilton...Devier Posey and Bralon Addison are off the DL but still limited in practice. Hard to say if either of them goes and they would help the receiving corps but not the offensive chemistry as neither have played a snap this season. They may also get Ciante Evans back at CB this week but if not, Channing Stribling filled in well with Williams moving to DHB.

Meanwhile the whole Stamps team got a lift whem BLM came back and even though his play was only average, he showed why he consistently wins because he commands the game and knows when to step it up. Their defence also looked rerally f'n good against a porous Edmonton OL (which is still a notch above Hamiltons) while the defensive backfield really stepped it up after a bad outing the previous week. Richard Leonard showed why he is considered one of the league's premier corners and should be fired up to play his old team. One concern for the stumps is a couple of receivers dinged with Josh Huff and Hergy Mayala not practicing today so that will have to be watched.

The early lines have Calgary as a 2.5pt dog and I already max bet both that and the ML at +118. If I can get +2 or better when the major books open, I'll be all over it.
 
TOR@SSK
Lots of question marks here and I doubt we see a line on this one for a bit. The latest on Fajardo is he had a light practice today and took some first team reps but not the majority. He is still officially in concussion protocol and not yet cleared to play. Based on what Dikenson said today I'm thinking its 60/40 he plays. If not, it will be Harker getting the start and Paxton Lynch finally dressing as backup. In that scenario, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lynch get some playing time, especially if Harker falters. Beyond that Sask is still pretty dinged on the defensive side with AC Leonard serving the second game of his suspension. That whole situation is weird. The official reason is "failing to provide a sample" during a random test. The rumor is that he just couldn't manage to pee in the alotted time but seriously...with an automatic 2 game suspension, you find a way to piss. Purifoy might be back in the defensive backfield but now Mike Edam is sporting a cast and will be out for some time. Gainey is still not practicing.

Meanwhile, what to make of Toronto's sudden defensive coaching changes? The DC and DBs coaches are on leave and Chris Jones is being airlifted in. Is it really as simple as MLSE booting them for violating their policy? And they just call up Chris Jones and he agrees to leave his job on the spot? Something about this combination is fishy. Apparently Rich Stubler will be acting DC for this game and while he is a legendary defensive mind, is also in his mid 80s and probably wasn;t expecting this when he signed on to be a defensive consultant this season. The Argos DL is still a mess with 4/5 top linemen on the 6gm and Chaleston Hughes nursing an ankle problem. Though he will likely play, he hasn't registered a sack all season which is concerning. This could be Charleston's last hurrah. They do get S Crezdon Butler back which is a shame because Haggerty was clearly not ready and could have been easily exploited by Sask this week for a cheap score. Toronto gets Darius Bladek back on the OL this week which should help shore it up. Even though C Philip Blake is on the 6gm, rookie Peter Nicastro (from the UC Dinos OL factory) filled in very well last week.

The early numbers have the total at 42.5/43.5. The major books probably open higher, QB dependent of course. Depending on the circumstances and the number, I might be playing this one over.
 
Hulu said:
Some thoughts while we wait for lines. Not surprised to not see them today with 2 teams having QB questions and another having covid questions.

CGY@HAM
To me this is a classic situation of one team getting its shit together (Calgary) vs a team who is suddenly is disarray (Hamilton). We still don't know who will be starting for the cats and although it will likely be Masoli, that is not determined yet as he has been dealing with elbow stifness as well as some sort of abdominal injury and has been limited in practice this week. So even if he starts, he will not be 100%. And where is his head at after losing his starting job to Evans and then getting it back via injury? If its David Watford, he can play a little but is not going to keep up with the stamps, especially with this horrible OL. Speaking of the OL, as if it wasn't bad enough, LT Kay 'the pylon' Okafor has been limited in practice all week with a hand injury. Also not practicing this week...Brandon Banks, Ted Laurent, Sean-Thomas Erlington and punter Joel Whitford, a tidbit I missed last week but it definitely hurt them as Domagala was not stellar at punting (or converts for that matter). There are some bright spots for Hamilton...Devier Posey and Bralon Addison are off the DL but still limited in practice. Hard to say if either of them goes and they would help the receiving corps but not the offensive chemistry as neither have played a snap this season. They may also get Ciante Evans back at CB this week but if not, Channing Stribling filled in well with Williams moving to DHB.

Meanwhile the whole Stamps team got a lift whem BLM came back and even though his play was only average, he showed why he consistently wins because he commands the game and knows when to step it up. Their defence also looked rerally f'n good against a porous Edmonton OL (which is still a notch above Hamiltons) while the defensive backfield really stepped it up after a bad outing the previous week. Richard Leonard showed why he is considered one of the league's premier corners and should be fired up to play his old team. One concern for the stumps is a couple of receivers dinged with Josh Huff and Hergy Mayala not practicing today so that will have to be watched.

The early lines have Calgary as a 2.5pt dog and I already max bet both that and the ML at +118. If I can get +2 or better when the major books open, I'll be all over it.
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I dont know how ticats move the ball at all if its watford, he was missing everything, and career numbers hes below 50% I think? In the cfl that's just unacceptable, that means you're 2 and out way too often. I have to think line gets to Calgary-3 pretty quick if its watford

Which makes me expect masoli, who if healthy gives best chance behind that line too, still heavy lean stamps
 
Hulu said:
TOR@SSK
Lots of question marks here and I doubt we see a line on this one for a bit. The latest on Fajardo is he had a light practice today and took some first team reps but not the majority. He is still officially in concussion protocol and not yet cleared to play. Based on what Dikenson said today I'm thinking its 60/40 he plays. If not, it will be Harker getting the start and Paxton Lynch finally dressing as backup. In that scenario, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lynch get some playing time, especially if Harker falters. Beyond that Sask is still pretty dinged on the defensive side with AC Leonard serving the second game of his suspension. That whole situation is weird. The official reason is "failing to provide a sample" during a random test. The rumor is that he just couldn't manage to pee in the alotted time but seriously...with an automatic 2 game suspension, you find a way to piss. Purifoy might be back in the defensive backfield but now Mike Edam is sporting a cast and will be out for some time. Gainey is still not practicing.

Meanwhile, what to make of Toronto's sudden defensive coaching changes? The DC and DBs coaches are on leave and Chris Jones is being airlifted in. Is it really as simple as MLSE booting them for violating their policy? And they just call up Chris Jones and he agrees to leave his job on the spot? Something about this combination is fishy. Apparently Rich Stubler will be acting DC for this game and while he is a legendary defensive mind, is also in his mid 80s and probably wasn;t expecting this when he signed on to be a defensive consultant this season. The Argos DL is still a mess with 4/5 top linemen on the 6gm and Chaleston Hughes nursing an ankle problem. Though he will likely play, he hasn't registered a sack all season which is concerning. This could be Charleston's last hurrah. They do get S Crezdon Butler back which is a shame because Haggerty was clearly not ready and could have been easily exploited by Sask this week for a cheap score. Toronto gets Darius Bladek back on the OL this week which should help shore it up. Even though C Philip Blake is on the 6gm, rookie Peter Nicastro (from the UC Dinos OL factory) filled in very well last week.

The early numbers have the total at 42.5/43.5. The major books probably open higher, QB dependent of course. Depending on the circumstances and the number, I might be playing this one over.
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I hadn't heard the failing to provide a sample part

Just start chugging water, seems fishy, just like the coaching stuff

Agreed on over, nothing to even add, game just screams defensive errors on both sides
 
BC @ MTL
I like looking at peoples power rankings because it gives a good idea of what the public is thinking. I look at about a dozen and I can't believe the number that have BC at either #3 or #4. That's insane. They beat up on a really bad Ottawa team B2B and somehow that makes them awesome? They are decent and improved over 2019 but I have them at 6. 1pt better than Montreal as a matter of fact. And now they have to make the most difficult road trip to Montreal to face an ALs team off a bye who really looked to be putting it together 2 weeks ago.

Still need to do some roster vwork here but if the ALs are dogged at home it will be hard not to take them. Also, this is the highest total we have seen in a while and with good reason. Both these QBs have played very aggressively in the past few weeks while both these defenses are average at best. This game has 28-27 written all over it. Anything under 51 and I'm taking the over.
 
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