The Wannabe Wagerer: Between Southern Cal and the Ball Coach, Week 12's picks are feeling a little nostalgic
from
Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Doug Gillett
Hey Jenny Slater's Doug Gillett offers betting advice without bias, malice, or credibility. Or, you know, money. The picks giveth, and the picks taketh away. I went 3-1 last week, which is fine by any measure, but the one whiff was the Iowa-Penn State game, where I was confident enough in a Nittany Lion cover to
wager a classic Cadillac de Ville. Whoops! Guess I can
kiss Nikki Meyer’s Mercury Mountaineer goodbye, or start Googling "organ transplants" to see how much a kidney goes for these days. Thanks a heap, Daniel Murray.
Still, I’m in front by a fairly comfortable margin so far this year -- comfortable enough that I should have plenty of breathing room on a football-related vacation later this month. Here, I’ll explain.
The Pick: Southern California (-22.5) at Stanford
I’m Willing to Bet: Six-nights in an Koko Head Ocean Front King room at
the Kahala Hotel & Resort in Hawaii
Approximate Value: $4,730 , including champagne and chocolate-covered strawberries
Two of my best friends from college and I have started a tradition whereby each year we go to one big tradition-steeped rivalry game in which our alma mater is
not involved, just to say we’ve done it. Our first game was Ohio State-Michigan last year, and this year it’s USC-Notre Dame the Saturday after Thanksgiving. The other day one my friends e-mailed me to ask, “What would you like to do in L.A. while we’re out there?” and, as someone who’s never been to California before, all I could come up with was Legoland in Carlsbad and finding Tom Selleck’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
From very early on The Selleck (or, rather, Thomas Magnum) was pretty much my model for what an adult male’s life should be like: Living free and easy on a Hawaiian island, driving a Ferrari, solving crimes, and bedding an outstanding parade of female talent. So when I determined that
USC is going to cover twenty-two and a half on Stanford this weekend -- they’ve got revenge on their mind after getting punked in the Mother of All Upsets last year, plus Pete Carroll knows he needs some major style points to move up in the BCS -- it's only natural that I’d put some
Magnum-related item on the line. I would wager a 1979 Ferrari 308 GTS, if its purr didn't contrast so starkly with USC's sputtering offense. But I’m still confident enough in a Trojan cover (heh) to wager a week’s stay at The Kahala in Honolulu, whose bar once served as the setting for Rick Wright’s King Kamehameha Club during
Magnum's fifth season. (Handicapping advice
and outrageously obscure TV trivia: Don’t ever say I never gave you nothin’.)
The Pick: Connecticut (-10) at Syracuse
I’m Willing to Bet: AKC-registered
Siberian husky puppy
Approximate Value: $500
Quite conspicuously
not my model for strong, suave manhood: Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson. With all due respect to the Robinson family, who I’m sure are a wonderful group of people, G-Rob is as good as done at the end of this season. Yeah, I know, the SU administration hasn’t officially announced anything yet, but neither has Barack Obama officially announced that he
won’t be nominating Sarah Palin as secretary of state. Robinson is 9-35 at ’Cuse, he has yet to win more than one Big East game in a season, end of story. The only puzzler is why Syracuse hasn’t pulled the trigger yet, given the hot trend for firing coaches early to get a jump on the hot prospects.
Maybe it’s because the Powers That Be made the mistake of watching Wyoming-Tennessee and found out just how apathetic and unmotivated players can be when their beloved coach is officially fired. But is there any evidence Robinson is beloved by his players? And even if they did go lazy and apathetic down the stretch this year, would anyone even be able to tell? UConn has hardly been a model of consistency the past few weeks, but they did drop a 24-point hurtin’ on current league leader Cincinnati last month, and
they’ll easily cover a ten-spot on a team with precisely nothing left to play for. To the extent that any UConn fans care about that achievement, they’ll be able to show their pride with their very own Siberian husky puppy, who, in just a few short months, will start to look like the insouciant, tongue-wagging doggie in UConn’s logo.
Awwww!
The Pick: South Carolina (+21) at Florida
I’m Willing to Bet: 1973 Topps Steve Spurrier
San Francisco 49ers card
Approximate Value: $4
If the Southeastern Conference were a baseball league, it’d be in the midst of one of the most boring pennant races in history right now, and it’s reasonable to wonder if the Gators can maintain their focus through the next few weeks -- partly because they haven’t been remotely challenged at any point in the past month, partly because none of the three opponents between them and the SEC title game look like all that big a challenge on paper.
Losing focus against the Gamecocks, though, would be a big mistake. They’ve got the
third-ranked defense in the country, they’ve been playing with more and more discipline over the last few weeks, and Steve Spurrier is always itching to show his old team he hasn’t lost a step since his Gainesville days. Just two years ago, you’ll recall, the same Gators that went on to win the national title needed a blocked extra point to escape Spurrier’s 'Cocks in the Swamp, and 2005 was Carolina's only win in the series since it joined the SEC. Florida won’t let USC dash its reinvigorated title hopes, but
UF won’t cover three touchdowns on the Ol’ Ball Coach, either. In the long run, a closer-than-expected loss to the ’08 Gators is probably more impressive than anything Steve did when he was a 49er.
The Pick: Kentucky (+4) vs. Vanderbilt
I’m Willing to Bet: Two lower-level
tickets to the 2008 Music City Bowl
Approximate Value: $90
Oh, Vanderbilt. You had it within your grasp, didn’t you? A little over a month ago, you were 5-0, the world was your oyster, a Music City Bowl bid (or better) was right there in front of you, ready to be snatched up. And then everything started to fall apart. A layup against hopeless Mississippi State: Missed. Multiple opportunities against Georgia: Squandered. Another layup, at home, against Duke: Another L. Vandy's down to three chances to get that critical sixth win -- at Kentucky, at home against Tennessee, at Wake Forest -- and the way Vandy’s played over the last month, even lining up across from Randall Cobb doesn't qualify as a gimme.
In fact, if their performance last week is a sign of things to come, Kentucky may be the most formidable of the bunch. If Rich Brooks keeps the triple-optiony look with Cobb, it spells bad news for a Vandy run defense that’s given up more than 600 yards in its last three SEC games. Once Duke pulls the straight upset in Nashville, I'm
taking Kentucky plus four on the scouting trip for the Cats' inevitable return to the Music City on New Year's Eve. That makes it three in a row!