Carolinablue Week 9 Plays and Discussion

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
After going through my analysis, I really don't see a lot of matchups that I like this week. As a result, I expect this to be a lighter card than usual for me, but all that really depends on where the lines open at of course. Needless to say I will be focused against the under the radar games as usual, but I also have my eye on a few Big 12 matchups this week as well.

All plays will be at the Greek unless otherwise noted.

36-25 Confirmed Posted YTD Record

WMU -4 120
KANSAS -2.5 110
FAU -5.5 120
CMU -2.5 110
TROY -3.5 120
 
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Unfortunately the Greek has most of the favs shaded up by .5 so slim pickins for me right now. Waiting to see the 5dimes openers as there may be more value for me there on the other 3 to 4 plays I am looking at.
 
CB, you got any thoughts on FAU this week. I already hit it at -6.5 but wondering your thoughts.

Good luck this week. Keep working it.
 
i ahd the line @ -7 for what its worth and i like it i'm just a little undecided as of now if CB likes it that will push me over the top been riding them all year
 
RJ Esq said:
CB, you got any thoughts on FAU this week. I already hit it at -6.5 but wondering your thoughts.

Good luck this week. Keep working it.
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If 5dimes releases it at 6 then I will be on it. I hate 6.5 with the Sunbelt for some reason, can't explain it, just do.

I am debating Troy back and forth as year after year they can't seem to beat Arkie State for some reason but if they are ever gonna do it, this would be the year. The 4 sure is enticing...a little more reading to do on it first though as it is almost too enticing haha.
 
FAU was the only Sun Belt that really jumped out to me, CB. Troy was interesting but I hate Sun Belt road favs. I think you went through that earlier.

Sun Belt seems a little more predictable to me this year.
 
TroyStacks said:
yeah i won;t get the -4 but i'll ettle for -5
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I think the line will be at 5.5 soon and may even reach 6. That's why I figured I would jump on that one now.

The other games I am looking at aren't seeing much movement so just playing a wait and see right now.
 
RJ Esq said:
FAU was the only Sun Belt that really jumped out to me, CB. Troy was interesting but I hate Sun Belt road favs. I think you went through that earlier.

Sun Belt seems a little more predictable to me this year.
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Yeah, that is the big thing that caused me not to jump on the 4 as soon as I saw it. Troy is the cream of the crop and if anyone is gonna go on the road and win as a fav it should be them, but Arkie State just seems to have their number every year so I am a little hesitant. If the line starts moving towards 5 then I might just bite the bullet and take a chance as I wouldn't be mad at myself for that one if it doesn't happen to cash b/c it does fit my analysis to a tee.
 
Actually about half the lines just moved at the Greek, wow. WMU now up to 5.5 110 and tons of others also moved up to 1pt in the last few mins.
 
KANSAS -2.5 110 (GREEK)


Finally my patience paid off for once as I just had a feeling this one was gonna drop back down under a FG for some reason. It is currently back down to 2.5 110 everywhere right now. At Pinny it is actually -3 +126 which is kinda wild.
 
Still eyeing a couple of MAC and Sunbelt plays, but may end up waiting until tomorrow as it appears as though there won't be much more movement on the lines tonight. 5Dimes still doesn't have their lines up but if they come out on a few games with .5 to 1 variation at open like they have the past few weeks, I will jump on a play or two there instead of waiting out the Greek.
 
cubsker said:
what about md tn st? n. texas really sucks balls, but do they play better at home?
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Even though I am 11-2-1 with road favs >3 on the year, I am not a big fan of playing road favs in the Sunbelt, especially DD road favs, so that one will be a no play for me.
 
curious to see a write up for the fau pick,, monroe seems to be an ok team. thanks for your time.
 
Like WMU. Also strongly leaning CMU. Kent's QB Edelman broke his arm late in the BG game and I think their 2nd stringer is hurting, too.

Can Barfalo get a win at home against the Zips?

Thinking about Vandy giving less than two touchdowns to Miami (OH), too...

Thoughts?
 
counselor said:
Like WMU. Also strongly leaning CMU. Kent's QB Edelman broke his arm late in the BG game and I think their 2nd stringer is hurting, too.

Can Barfalo get a win at home against the Zips?

Thinking about Vandy giving less than two touchdowns to Miami (OH), too...

Thoughts?
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CMU is also on my list and that is one of many reasons why. Starter with broken arm, backup with bum ankle. I know they were debating taking the RS off the frosh 3rd stringer, which would suck for them since they are already 8 games in. Only reason I didn't hit it last night is b/c I was waiting for the ML as I don't like 1.5. Haven't looked at the line tonight, so have no idea what it is right now. Will check in a little while to see if it still qualifies as a play or not.
 
CMU -2.5 110 (Greek)

Well, so much for that theory. Totally my fault for not locking it in when I could have last night, no excuses. Just hope they don't win by 2 or else....
 
TROY -3.5 120 (Greek)

Figure this one will go up to 4.5 soon, so might as well lock it in now. Not gonna outthink myself on this one as I had Troy as a play if the line opened at 4. It did and I still didn't lock it in, but decided not to doubt my initial instincts here.
 
All done for week 9, but may play a handful of 1-AA games this week for fun, not sure yet as it depends on when 5dimes releases the lines.
 
counselor said:
Like WMU. Also strongly leaning CMU. Kent's QB Edelman broke his arm late in the BG game and I think their 2nd stringer is hurting, too.

Can Barfalo get a win at home against the Zips?

Thinking about Vandy giving less than two touchdowns to Miami (OH), too...

Thoughts?
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CMU is already added to my list. I should have jumped on it at 1.5 but I was thinking I could get ML 120 today, but I missed my shot, so now stuck with 2.5 110 but it shouldn't matter.

I had a slight lean on Buffalo as I think they are the better team and the game is basically a PK at this point. Just couldn't pull the trigger on em though as their red zone performance on Saturday turned me off to em for this week.

Not opinion Vandy as that one came out where I thought it would.
 
Hey CB! Nice job thus far on the season!

Glad to see you're also on Kansas, and I'm riding the FAU train until it derails. FAU is 4-1 ATS in their last five games (only non cover against Kentucky by 4 points), and the Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home. Not to mention ULM QB Lancaster is Questionable for the game this Saturday.

GL this week bud!

:cheers:
 
A Few Quick Thoughts...

The main reason I like FAU is because they are at home facing a team has struggled to put together a full game this season. ULM is an okay team, but I have actually seen them play a few times this year and they just aren't the same on the road as they are at home. Both teams have poor defenses so points will be scored in this one. ULM runs pretty well, while FAU relies on the arm of Rusty Smith, and both teams will have trouble stopping the other's strengths in my opinion. The main reason I like FAU is because I think turnovers will be the difference in this one, and with the Owls being #1 in turnover margin, I expect them to capitalize on a few timely takeaways to win this one at home.

The main reason I like Troy, even though they are on the road, is because of turnovers (Arkie State #109) and pass rush. Arkie State is vulnerable to Troy's pass rush, and I expect the Trojans to get a lot of pressure on the QB leading to a few turnovers, which of course will lead to short fields for the explosive Troy pass attack that is #19 in the country. I know Troy isn't great against the run, and I know they have lost something like 7 of 9 against Arkie State, but this is a Troy team that is head and shoulders above the rest of the Sunbelt and they will prove that this weekend.
 
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More Initial Thoughts...

Western's passing attack will be too much for the overmatched Eagles as they are scrappy, but they don't have the offensive weapons to keep up with WMU. The fact that it is homecoming is irrelevant as the stadium will be less than half full just like it always is.

Kent has all sorts of issues at QB right now as they are going to start the freshman vs CMU. Here is an interesting set of quotes from the Kent coach...It seems like he is more focused against the final three games as he is using this game moreso to get his frosh QB ready for the home stretch. I expect lots of blitz schemes and the like by CMU to confuse the frosh, leading to a few turnovers, as Kent comes in ranked #114 in turnover margin as it is. CMU is going to dare Kent to throw the ball in this one, so even though Kent is 11th in the nation in rushing, they will need to have a more balanced attack to have a chance in this one, and I don't think they will be able to accomplish this with an inexperienced QB under center...

Quotes from Kent Coach...

We got a chance to win every one of them if we play the way we are capable of. That will be a tremendous feet and a tremendous season to get that done. But that’s going to be a daunting task this week. This is the best team I have seen in the MAC that’s coming in here this weekend as an overall team. I am talking about offense, defense, and the whole gamut. They are a very impressive, impressive group so we’ll definitely be tested.

On the thought process on which quarterback to start:
“The big thing to me was that we still got a lot to play for this season. We got four games left: we can still be a seven-win football team. We’ve got this game and then an open date which gives me time to get [Giorgio Morgan] ready, especially for the last three [games].
 
Some thoughts on KU vs A&M...

When one actually takes the time to look at who each team has beaten, there isn't a large discrepancy in the quality of victories if you are really objective about it. I mean A&M's best win was at home vs a decent Okie State team, while Kansas' best win was on the road vs a decent KSU team. A&M's other home wins were Fresno, Monroe, Baylor and Montana State. Not exactly top level competition as they were at least 17 point or more favs in every single one of those games.

We all know that KU hasn't beaten anyone of note at home, but I have no problem giving them credit for beating both Colorado and KSU on the road, because those were tough games against tough teams. I consider those wins much more impressive than A&M's road win against Nebraska and their home win vs Okie State.

Just want to put the whole schedule thing in perspective because I hear people talk about it a lot but they aren't taking A&M's schedule into account at the same time.

Not saying this will be a slam dunk by any means (what game is?) but I used a ton of stats, trends, and psychological stuff when I played KSU at home vs KU and we all know how that worked out for me (and tons of others). Should be a fun one to watch, but just wanted to point out that KU may or may not be a fraud, but until someone proves differently, I am done trying to predict when they will be exposed.
 
We are on the same page this week, CB, and thats a good thing. I'm loving Kansas and Troy as well. BOL, and nice job on Troy last week!
 
Thanks CB, your insight on the troy line made me more comfortable, i think they are head and shoulders ahead of the other sun belt teams and expect them to keep winning.
 
Just as a heads up, I am doing 3 small fraction of a unit plays on 1-AA this week. They are all posted in hoopstar's thread so I don't clutter my thread with em since they they aren't close to being a meaningful fraction of a unit, but I wanted to keep track of them nonetheless. Hoopstar has some great info his in thread that you guys should check out if you are looking for some under the radar gems, as he is hitting at almost 80% on the season playing the 1-AA card each week.

Missouri State, Jackson State, and Delaware are my plays for the week.
 
Hi Carolina, solid season thus far, keep up the good work.

Respectfully disagree with you on the KU/TAMU game, though I will need at least 3 to play Aggie. While I agree with your analysis that KU's wins are a bit more impressive, fact is, they were outgained in both Manhattan and Boulder. When they played K-St, they were off a bye while the "Cats were off their huge UT win.

I think TAMU is in the class of K-St and Colorado and Kansas is likely to be outgained yet again this week in College Station. Asking this team to win two straight roadies against decent teams is a bit of a stretch IMO...

Again...still not on it as I want at least 3.

GL, CB.
 
horses said:
Hi Carolina, solid season thus far, keep up the good work.

Respectfully disagree with you on the KU/TAMU game, though I will need at least 3 to play Aggie. While I agree with your analysis that KU's wins are a bit more impressive, fact is, they were outgained in both Manhattan and Boulder. When they played K-St, they were off a bye while the "Cats were off their huge UT win.

I think TAMU is in the class of K-St and Colorado and Kansas is likely to be outgained yet again this week in College Station. Asking this team to win two straight roadies against decent teams is a bit of a stretch IMO...

Again...still not on it as I want at least 3.

GL, CB.
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Solid counterpoints horses, always enjoy reading your thoughts, whether we agree or disagree, I can always count on you to know your stuff. Best of luck to you as well this weekend!
 
Cb I like that slate. All of it.
I also like Missouri St and possibly Delaware.
Best of luck
 
bull said:
Cb I like that slate. All of it.
I also like Missouri St and possibly Delaware.
Best of luck
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Thanks Bull. I got decent value on each of the lines, so I feel pretty good about the card this week. Looking forward to seeing your 1-AA thoughts on the weekend.
 
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