C-MAN NHL 2025-26

Initial leans were Minny, Cal, Sea and over, SJ/Ducks over. Will likely trim it down to three pics. Thought about fading Columbus after the travel fiasco today, but line is too steep and Ott goaltending situation not good. LAK TT under also a possibility. They scored 6 last game so should revert to 1 or 2 this game.
 
Monday

Min -110
Cal -130
Van/Sea o5.5 -120
SJ/Ducks o6.5 -125

Don’t love all the chalk but gotta play them how I see them. Might jump on the Col under. Like that one as well.

Season 57-49 +8.79
 
Im glad i didnt play all my initial leans...cause ive flipped on a couple after digging in.

Cbus/ott over 6.5 -116
Buff -116. I believe i still had in my mind that buffalo was terrible.
Wash/fla ov 5.5. Didnt realize wash was like 2-8 over their last 10. I think florida is neatable. Think this is the better route.
Minn -107...this, the columbus ov, and sj ov prob my 3 favorite plays today.
Sj 150. I cant pass this price.
Sj ov 6.5 -125. The odds favor this play. I dont think we will see a 2 to 1 game here at all.
 
I think buffalo is going to roll into Dallas on a nine game win streak and that should be a heck of a game. I like the strong defensive game they’re playing right now and they have enough skill guys that can fill the net.
 
Man, so many games I like today. Wash getting Fla after that TB game looks like another good spot.
 
When betting on the MLB, i will take a favorite less than 15% of the time. Overall, i tend to look at dogs first. For me, betting on David is much more profitable than betting on Goliath.
Hockey is so very similar to baseball , but very different strategies must be implored to attack any given card. Sometimes chalk rules the day, sometimes the dogs bite. Its a delicate balance of trying yo be in the right place at the right time.

Nice nights we had last time out. Damn ottawa not chipping in. Cbus did their part. I actually stayed up to watch some of the sharks game. What an entertaining game (made moreso by hitting both side and total). That celebrini kid was really fun to watch.

when i used to follow hockey more religiously, tje west coast teams, generally were more free flowing offensive teams, goalies that were ok, and defenses that were way more offensively minded and less so punishing hitters. The east coast was very blue collar, big physical teams, with some offensive prowess. This was just a general characterization.

It seems you can still find these storylines evident throughout the league
 
Montreal/fla ov 6 -120. As posted in cavs thread, i am making this play based on my assumption tarasov goes for florida. Montreal should have a spirited effort here with florida who has a couple tough games upcimng versus rangers and avs. Montereal has montembeault going tonighy who has exhibited some challenges stopping pucks. Montreal has been scoring of late, which helps. As long as florida stays motivated they should contribute as well. I like my chances.

Migjt take a page outta cavs book and parlay pitt +1.5 with vancouver +1.5 or may find a modestly priced home fav in cbb or nba to pair it with for plus money. Like the spot for competitiveness with pens here. I think vancouver stole one last night with lank in net. With demko going tinight i think the positive momentum could carry over. The flyers thumped the canucks on the 22nd, so they could be revenge minded to some extent. Projected errson in net tonight which helps with vancouver off back to back.

Prob be on isles and reg win here split 60/40. Wanna see what fallout was from late penalties vs cbus on saturday. Very sloppy game from them. Roy was not happy. They have to close out against weaker foes which is where they find themselves in chi-town.
 
Pitt +1.5 with creighton ml +100. Anderson looks to be in net. Really think over 6 is worth a look here also, but that alt line is about -140. I still think pitt defensively might fail to hold a lead if they get out early. Makea sense to save bussi since kotch is likely out for the season. Carolina has a good record on back end of back2backs

Jersey has steamed up about 20 cents or so overnight. Ive seemed to have got more wrong on them than right lately. Markstrom looks to be in net vs woll who i like better than hildeby. Hughes was supposed to give devils a lift but has posted one goal and a -4 rating since his return from dinnergate. Im beginning to get interested in toronto
 
Leafs a mess right now. They may put it together here and there (especially at home) but can’t string anything together. They are a stay away for me until I see more consistency from them.
 
Yeah...and with mattjews and nyland out...that doesnt help things much. Maybe the jersey hype is warranted. Ive got 3 plays on a 5 game card. Although, if i can get pitt over at 6....ill jump in there. The montreal over is my favorite play, followed by the isles.
 
Juice loss on day. If ida nit messed with the regulatiin split with the isles, i would have been on the plus side. Tough sledding on that over. Although they got to 5...it was never close to going over. I sid find a 6 on pens, but that pushed. Good effort by them.

Nice hit with the habs last night!

Going to keep it brief today. Really would have liked to add buff, but wiyh lyon out, ill watch and root for the upset.

Anaheim +128 right the ship kinda game for the ducks here. Looking at recent play, doesnt look like there is much here. Ducks outshot the sharks 42 to 13. Lightening dealing with a few dinged up folks. My numbers show some value here on the ducks. So im going to hold my nose and trust it.

Det -114. I seem to be getting a discount on the team playing much better, at home, with a better home record than that of the opponet on the road, with the home team playing recently against bettet competition. Feel like a sucker, but it wont be the last time.

Sj +151. I do see minnesota playing a defenaive heavy game to try and slow the sharks pace. They have beat minn earleir in the year both times. Can they make it 3? Wild have upgraded defensively since those meetings. The last was a 2-1 sharks victory. So they can hang in both a quick and slow paced game.

Cbus -116 putrid effort from the devils last night. Surely they get a rebound effort here. But bluejackets have quietly been playimg some good hockey. Not super confident in this one as the main basis for the play is the devils getting worked by a depleated leafs team yesterday. Markstrom was in net and allen looks to go today. Ill take a shot here with the small home fav.

Nashville +162. Value play here and vegas SHOULD be the favorite, but this is a little steep. Vegas netminders have been shaky of late although achmid did come in relief vs minn and stopped all he faced vs wild. Nashville has won 4 of their last 5 and 7 of their last 10 (3-2 on the road in that span).

Best of luck on the action today and have a safe new year!
 
Nice Vap. Have fun. I’m leaning over in that game. Sharks have taken the first two meetings this season, so I don’t feel comfortable backing them for the sweep. I can definitely see both teams scoring though. Nash a must play even though Vegas may get Eichel back. Will try to get a split out of Preds and ducks today.
 
May go back to the well with Calgary today. I didn’t love how they squeaked out the last game but looks like Philly is starting Ersson. May also consider the over here as Philly has been a decent road team. I looked hard at Detroit, but Jets played pretty well last few games and I expect them to get over the hump shortly.
 
Big game in Dallas tonight. Too bad Lyon is out but UPL has been playing well. Will probably just watch this one, but I’m sure Buffalo would love to get the win for Lindy and to keep the streak going.
 
I too think the sj game has many plusses to get to the over. Im kinda gun shy with my totals as i missed more than ive made. Im better at sides i think.

The markwt agrees with your winnipeg take. And i too think they are on the cusp of turning the corner.

Philly i just cant get a read on. Well...i can, but i tend to be wrong more than im right. I could only look calgary here.

That buffalo game should be fire. It will be 2 to 1 or 4 to 3. No in between.
 
Terrible 3rd period in columbus and an ot loss for anaheim. What could have been. But, picked up close to 2 units in a 3-2 night. Dont want to anger the gambling gods. My night leans went 3-0 and buff put a whoppin on dallas. Impressive game and streak for the sabres.

I imagine buffalo will be a decent fav on the 3rd in columbus both having rest since their respective games yesterday. Ill probably be looking at columbus. We shall see what the oddsmakers say. Prelim numbers say buff will be a small dog. Wr know that wont happen.

I like too much today. 2025 me woulda played all 8. 2026 me isnt. We will see how ling that lasts.

I like both wash and detroit today and botj the overs. Merlinian and silvos appear to be going for ott and pitt, respectively. I dont like both road teams coming off b2bs with the home teams on a day of rest. Old me would played all 4 of those. New me says to just go against both weaker netminders with teams fully capable of reaching 3 goals.

Det ov 2.5 goals parlayed with wash over 2.5 goals +177

Nyi -107. My numbers say isles should be favored by more. Vanecek vs rittich. Ill take the home team playing who is playing better against a atill struggling utah team who is 9-12 away.

Tor -133. Close to not making it because my numbers show a bit of value of toronto. Nit much, but enough to give it consideratiin. Looks like leafs will get matthews back which is a plus. Comerie slated in net vs woll. I like that matchup. Winnipeg 1-9 last 10 on the road and toronto 6-4 lst 10 at home although they are 5 and 2 their last 7. Much better efforts for a depleated leaf team simce the management shakeup. Ill bite.

Lak-120. Risk here is kings dont score enough to keep up. When looking at the recent efforts, dont really understand why kings are favored. It doesnt make sense why kings are favorites, so im going to go against what appears to be a line enticing me to take the road team. My numbers marginally support a kings play. Kings have been getting good amount of offensive chances, at some point, those efforts shall translate.

chicago +148. Perhaps dallas has a bounceback spot now? I hope not. Bedard not listed on the injury report, so he might get back on the ice. That could be quite the boost. Ill stab at this big home dog against the stars here.

Im happy i whittled this down to 5 plays. We will see how long this discipline lasts.
 
Mintreal would be the only side i could play. I disnt even look at that game at all. Nashville or nothing in the nightcap. I too liked washington alot. Decided for the tt parlay instead
 
I like the Wash TT over as well. That might be the better play. Not doing much but betting on sports today so will probably play too many games than I should.
 
I think the fan in me wants to see ole miss come out on top. I know they have the offensive firepower to score. If ole miss is up at half...no better coach than kirby smart to get his teoops ready for 2nd half
 
Imo, there arent many games i feel one should unload on. Will they win this game...as Cman said, if they need a "get right game" this is the type of foe you want to see.

Take the names off the shirts. Would you take an almost $2 favorite with how they have played recently against a team who is playing bwtter than their average? Regression says the road team will improve because they are a really good team. But, how much do they have to improve to meet the level of the team on the other bench.

Chicago has their own unique set of challenges, i actually played them today. Not necessairily because i think they will win ( other than the last 5 games for each there are few statistical categories they have the edge in). I do hope to win my bet, but i undstand i took an inferior statistical team based on the price offered.

All that to say, tough to unload on the stars in this tilt. There will be many better oppprtunities in future games.

Just my 2 cents. Best of luck on whatever you decide. Sorry for the novel :)
 
Initial leans: Fla, Minny, Sea and Vegas/Stl under. NYR are undefeated in outdoor games (5-0) but think that streak ends tonight. Might go a little smaller on this game because of the spectacle. Ducks are really struggling right now and Minny has owned the h2h lately and are playing off a loss. Van has so many injuries and Sea is scoring a bit winning 5 of last 6. Vegas and Stl both want to tighten up defensively so expected both teams to focus on that today.
 
I liked seattle today when looming at card last night. Somewhat as a balue play, but also in recent form. Really pissed i disnt trust myself last night when i coulda got the kracken at 160 or better. Ugh. Ill prob still be on it, just hate losing so much value.
 
Stl +130
Sea +123
Minn -123

Vegas is 1 and 6 since eichel last played. Their offense is getting 26 shots and averaging 3.6 goals whike the defense is allowing 26 shots and 4.2 goals per game. Blues over the last 5 habe averaged 21 shots per game scoring 2.4 while allowing 31 shots and 3.1 goals.

Hart has a 3.19 gaa in december since his debut which is a little elevated since je game up 5 goals in 46 minutes last time out. Hofer had a 5.31 gaa in oct, 2.53 in nov, and 2.20 in december.

I think this number is a little high.
 
Really wanted to find a way to back anaheim here as a home dog, but cant. They have some defensive and goaltending issues they need to solve, and minnesota is not the best team to try and do so against.

Minn offensive has averaged 26 shots a gm scoring 3 over their last 5 while the defense has faced 28 shots a gm allowing 2.4. Anaheim has tallied 33 spg over the same span whilst allowing 24 shots and 4.2 goals. It should be noted that goals for and against were adjusted to eliminate shootout goals,empty net goals, and minor other tweaks in the event of lopsided games (-1 goal adjustment for lak against the ducks on 12/27 for example)

Gustavsons gaa has improved from oct throu decemeber starting at 3.37, then 2.06 and in december he posted a 1.89 figure over 8 games, 6 of which were wins. Dostal by comparison is going the other way beginning with a 2.74 gaa in october, 2.88 in nov, and 3.99 in dec while going 2-6 in the final month of 2025.

In terms of save percentages gustavsson has shown percentages of 92.6 and 92.3 in dec and nov, respectively while dostal tallied 84% and 90% in the same time frame.

My numbers show that i am getting a slight discount on the road favorite, more than likely because anaheim seems to be a team that is due for a win. I dont know. If i could better predict why lines are inflated or discounted, i could pay off my house in 2026.

if minnesota plays close to their averages and anaheim improves a bit, i still believe i have edges in offense, defense, and goaltending. Minnesota has a better pp success rate scoring on 22.6% of their chances versus 17.1% for the ducks. Minnesota is the least penalized team in the nhl while anaheim has logged the 9th most minutes.

Considered the over, but 4 of the last 5 games for each team have landed on 6 or more. I believe that it could be close to that here, however if minnesota goes up early by a couple, then they can play the lockdown defense game to limit anaheims scoring chances.

Not going to write up anytbing quite so lengthy on seattle. The number was probably steamed down for a couple reasons. The kracken handled the preds pretty easily ofter nashville scored the big upset over vegas the previous night. Additionally the canucks have a slew of injuries, some of which occurred the game prior when philly took them to the woodshed.

The kracken at the current number is still outside of my high range for where this shoulda been priced based on the number i made.

Rangers and florida is lined pretty tightly. I can find edges for both teams, but id rather just tune in and enjoy what should be a good game. If forced to make a play...id be on dog or over, i guess.
 
When Ducks are involved I always look at the over (never the under) first, but I didn’t like it and this feels like a 4-1 or 3-2 type game. Agree Minny is cheap here. Not sure why either, and sometimes that scares me off a play, but I decided to roll with it.

Yeah, I may have forced the Fla play b/c I wanted action on it. I never play the total in these outdoor games - Just too many variables - so I ended up on Fla. If this were a normal game and not some spectacle, I would have liked the play more. I’ve been on Rags plenty and still think they can make a move. Just hope it doesn’t start tonight!
 
Vegas game played out how I expected, 24 shots for Vegas, 19 for StL - both well below their averages - but I didn’t expect there to be 7 goals scored on 43 shots! WTF goalies?!
 
First time through, these look like things that will intest me. Still have some work to do before locking anything in.

Pitt...maybe side...1st period...or 3rd period.
Columbus low chqnce ill be on this. But this is the only side id consider
Mammoth.
Flyers...based on price
Sharks maybe...160 or so home dogs? Over as usual in consideration
Islanders...bounce back off that horrible effort last...toronto playing much better
Winnipeg. If merlinian goes, ill look to fade
Carolina/avs. What a matchup. Canea as a home dog could get me involved

Before lines came out, i was interested in kings. Not at -140 or so im seeing. Id have to consider wild on principal. Ibfeel like books are begging me to take wild, which is a concern
 
Just going to start off with these 5 Feel like there are some landmines out there today. Hopefully these arent any of them. Still considering a couple more.

Pitt +115. Better goaltender in net for pitt than when they faced last time. Pitt should be dogged here. Their effort lately has been quite good. Wish there wasnt the immediate revenge.

San jose +187. Tb with a home date vs colorado on deck. I just think this is way too expensive. It is outside of my top range for what i made this. Should be a good barometer for the sharks to see what they are capable of.

Canes +119. Coinflip game. The goalies today will earn their paychecks for sure as i think they will be facing a ton of shots. I feel if they played this game 10 times they would win 5 of them. Ill take my estimated 5% value here and hope carolina can get it done. Ill be watching this game.

Situationally, if tb lays an egg today and colorado does earn victory, i will likely look to back tb when they face off next. Subject to price and injuries of course.

WIld +106. I dont expect the kings will blow up like last time versus tb...but they will have yheir work cut out for them against a wild team that i would rate as better than tb. At some point the kings will get their offense on track, i just hope its not today.

70/30 ml and reg win -130/+133. I feel like i am gettimg the better team at a fair fav price. Not only is boston playing much better than the nucks, currently, the home team is also plagued by some injuries that are limiting their potential. They did take seattle to a shootout victory yesterday, but seattle was comimg off day 2 of a back to back so maybe tired legs played a part of it being closer than i had hoped backing seattle last night. Hope vancouver was worn out a bit coming into today.
 
Pitt has not been good at closing out games and Det scored late to force OT in the last meeting, so like the odds of Det coming back here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top