buying pts in the NBA

H

handy

Pretty much a regular
Hi there,

Well I'm not here to post picks or anything like that but I want to raise the question as to why many of you think it's profitable in the long term to buy pts. in the NBA?

All I will tell you is you have to be a complete schmuck to purchase pts. in an NBA game. The odds of the pts. you purchase being the difference of winning and losing your bet(s) is very slim. Yes, you can very well be a hero tonight but over the long haul you're killing yourself financially. Why would you buy a game at -3 and not 3.5 in the NBA? Why? Tell me? I read this crap all the time how I didn't want to lay 6.5 so I bought the hook and now own it at -6 -120. Brilliant. So if the 6 doesn't come into play then you either lose more @ -120 or win less because you spent -120. People always argue the point I don't know what I'm talking about. Bull shit. You don't know what you're talking about. IT's all about the math my friend. I can at least follow the logic in the NFL but barely agree with it. You better be buying onto the key numbers and only key numbers.

I WILL GUARANTEE THAT ANYONE HERE ON THIS SITE WHO CLAIMS TO MAKE ADDITIONAL MONEY BUYING PTS. IN THE NBA (over the long haul) IS FULL OF SHIT.

Good luck and as always life is dandy being an educated capper named Handy!!
 
handy said:
Hi there,

Well I'm not here to post picks or anything like that but I want to raise the question as to why many of you think it's profitable in the long term to buy pts. in the NBA?

All I will tell you is you have to be a complete schmuck to purchase pts. in an NBA game. The odds of the pts. you purchase being the difference of winning and losing your bet(s) is very slim. Yes, you can very well be a hero tonight but over the long haul you're killing yourself financially. Why would you buy a game at -3 and not 3.5 in the NBA? Why? Tell me? I read this crap all the time how I didn't want to lay 6.5 so I bought the hook and now own it at -6 -120. Brilliant. So if the 6 doesn't come into play then you either lose more @ -120 or win less because you spent -120. People always argue the point I don't know what I'm talking about. Bull shit. You don't know what you're talking about. IT's all about the math my friend. I can at least follow the logic in the NFL but barely agree with it. You better be buying onto the key numbers and only key numbers.

I WILL GUARANTEE THAT ANYONE HERE ON THIS SITE WHO CLAIMS TO MAKE ADDITIONAL MONEY BUYING PTS. IN THE NBA (over the long haul) IS FULL OF SHIT.

Good luck and as always life is dandy being an educated capper named Handy!!
Click to expand...

Why don't you post plays anymore ?
 
Spiderman,

Posting plays is nothing more than tail and fail. Unless one mirrors every single bet I or someone else post then it's pointless for anyone to know what I'm playing. Plus, there are too many people interested in someone keeping 100% records, and all other kinds of BS. I have no desire to prove to anyone but my online books that I know how to make money betting the NBA. They're already down big time to the Handy man in 2007.
 
handy said:
Spiderman,

Posting plays is nothing more than tail and fail. Unless one mirrors every single bet I or someone else post then it's pointless for anyone to know what I'm playing. Plus, there are too many people interested in someone keeping 100% records, and all other kinds of BS. I have no desire to prove to anyone but my online books that I know how to make money betting the NBA. They're already down big time to the Handy man in 2007.
Click to expand...

Understand, but I always have enjoyed reading your quick thoughts on NBA games.
 
an_popcorn.gif
 
there isn't a calculator in the world that will argue your thoughts here handy. buying points in the NBA is a losing proposition. ecspecially with totals.

Unless of course it's your GOY and you like DENVER -15.5 but are nervous about the hook. Then you should buy it to 15. :tiphat:
 
Agree JP. In situations like that, better safe than sorry.

:tiphat:
 
I believe most of the better cappers sold points to get plus money for that exact reason. No Pinnacle meant I could no longer do that but buying spreads down is not on the agenda.
 
If it's a GOY I would think one would believe a team wins by 30 :D

laying 15.5 in a GOY? :D I remember doing something similar with Sacto against the Lakers when Malone was in LA.
 
handy said:
Hi there,

Well I'm not here to post picks or anything like that but I want to raise the question as to why many of you think it's profitable in the long term to buy pts. in the NBA?
Click to expand...

there have been many smartass comments recently about it. I don't think many folks actually do it.

:cheers:
 
Selling pts. is clearly the way to go. Yeah, any sharp mind knows if the book posted a line like Utah +9 -170 they wouldn't get much action. Think about that for a minute. They let you buy 3 pts. and instead of getting the Jazz tonight at +6 -110 you would've had a winner at +9 -170. Yeah, congrats, you would've won. However, look at the rest of the games on the board from tonights NBA. Had you chose to move the line in any of those games you would've lost money whether you had won your bet or not. It's just a losing bet all around. The house has that bet out their for one reason. Their benefit.

Life is dandy living the life of Handy!!
 
Satyr said:
If it's a GOY I would think one would believe a team wins by 30 :D

laying 15.5 in a GOY? :D I remember doing something similar with Sacto against the Lakers when Malone was in LA.
Click to expand...

GL with Sacto Moo :tiphat:
 
Yeah buying points in the nba is dumb because it's too easy to score. Points come in bunches in the nba, and it's even more stupid to do it on a total. I only buy pts in football where it's harder to score, and only do so say if a line is -3.5, buy it to 3. Or if it's -7.5, buy it to 7.
 
cogenman said:
Yeah buying points in the nba is dumb because it's too easy to score. Points come in bunches in the nba, and it's even more stupid to do it on a total. I only buy pts in football where it's harder to score, and only do so say if a line is -3.5, buy it to 3. Or if it's -7.5, buy it to 7.
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Sharp-RD-CX300-e-dictionary.jpg
 
Ok, I will be the devil's advocate.
I believe both on buying and selling points.
Let's see, you are losing 0.06 or 0.7 on the half point you bought. Instead of 1.95, you will get 1.89 or 1.88. I will go even with the worse case scenario, that it is always 0.07. Let's add to that, that you are good tipster, not great, but good (because if you bad, you lose money no matter what you do). You don't buy the hook all the time, just when you feel that it is important (sometimes you feel that the line is way off and some times you feel that it is incorrect by 3 - 4 points only and that is the case you usually buy the hook).
You play 350 plays a season (that is roughly 2 picks a night) and let's say you bought the hook on half of them. that means that you bought the hook on 175 games. 175 X 0.07 = 12.25. Out of those 175 you caught 60% and that means, you got 105 catches. The juice you lost because you bought the hook is 7.35 units. That means that from 175 games, if 8 times only, it happened that because of the hook that was bought, you got your money back, than it was worth it. you can play with those numbers, but you will see that in a course of a season, the juice lost isn't too high and you might not even remember all the times that the half point did all the deferance, but if you were right by nuying the hook on only 2.2% of all your bets, you made more by doing so than you lost on the juice.
 
this thread is useless w/o picks

Handy:

thanks for the fyi

thanks for letting us all now how smart you are

If someone wants to by .5pt- 15 pts so be it, its there choice.

Any smart capper knows that buying pts, or "buying the hook" is not smart EV in poker terms over the long term value.

But honestly why post this hear? If your so dying to to say something about how bad everyone is because they want to buy the .5 or the full pt. why not post your picks? Seriously, I know your rep, and your a good capper, but this is complete bullshit you calling out peeps because they wish to buy a half or full pt, to protect themselves in a bet.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
this thread is useless w/o picks

Handy:

thanks for the fyi

thanks for letting us all now how smart you are

If someone wants to by .5pt- 15 pts so be it, its there choice.

Any smart capper knows that buying pts, or "buying the hook" is not smart EV in poker terms over the long term value.

But honestly why post this hear? If your so dying to to say something about how bad everyone is because they want to buy the .5 or the full pt. why not post your picks? Seriously, I know your rep, and your a good capper, but this is complete bullshit you calling out peeps because they wish to buy a half or full pt, to protect themselves in a bet.
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that's too much dude. Handy's saying, even teaching, that buying the point is bad mathematically. Many people come here to learn about handicapping. This is kinda a discussion thread too. He's probably referring to Amachi nation's comments about buying points not knowing they were kidding. I think its good that he started this thread. I remember vanzack started a thread like this about hedging out in parleys in c'vers and lotta people gave him shit. He was basically saying that hedging shouldn't be done unless there's something new to the bet that changes your mind on it. Lotta people gave him shit, but he wasn't starting shit. He was inforiming those and teaching people. It actually taught me and he showed the math that proved it and everything. These threads are imo the most helpful and useful threads. even more helpful than posting plays. NO disrespect Marlo, but siding with Handy on this one. Not every1 agrees that its best not to buy points, so its good for a respected capper to say so in a new thread
 
divol,

I think what you're argument is missing is the fact that you're not accounting for the amount of money you're not winning (or losing) when you buy the 1/2 pt. and don't need it. For example, if you bet team x at -4 -120 instead of -4.5 -110 and win then here is what happened. Based on $120 to make $100. Had you taken the Vegas posted line you would've made $109.09 on your $120. Instead you buy a half and pay -120 to make $100. As result of not needing the half pt. you lost $9.09 even though you still earned $100. So Vegas takes your 10% when you lose a posted line, another ten percent when you win buying a half pt. you don't need and the knife they shove in your back gets deeper. That's the point I think your argument is missing. You have to account for the amount of money you don't earn when you don't need the points.

Trust me, buying pts. is out there to benefit the book not the player. Yes, we all think we can come up with scenarios which buying pts. look attractive but the bottom line is you're relying on the slightest line change to make your bet a winner. If you're that concerned you probably shouldn't be making that bet.
 
I've had both good and bad experiences posting plays in sports forums. I've just come to the conclusion that posting picks isn't worth my time. From time to time I get the urge to drop some insight on the sports gambling world but I try to keep most of my sharp bets to myself. It's all about tail and fail so why get involved. I don't pay attention to anyone's plays. It's not that I don't care or am self centered. I just believe I have no reason to turn to help when I simply bet on or against teams in good and bad spots on the schedule. I can pick my games weeks in advance and most of you have no understanding as to how I do it. It's just a skill I picked up many years ago and it works like clock work. I don't bet on most teams in the NBA. I have no reason to, I make my money primarily betting on the above average to good teams in this league.

Good luck and as always life is dandy being an educated capper named Handy!!
 
handy said:
I've had both good and bad experiences posting plays in sports forums. I've just come to the conclusion that posting picks isn't worth my time. From time to time I get the urge to drop some insight on the sports gambling world but I try to keep most of my sharp bets to myself. It's all about tail and fail so why get involved. I don't pay attention to anyone's plays. It's not that I don't care or am self centered. I just believe I have no reason to turn to help when I simply bet on or against teams in good and bad spots on the schedule. I can pick my games weeks in advance and most of you have no understanding as to how I do it. It's just a skill I picked up many years ago and it works like clock work. I don't bet on most teams in the NBA. I have no reason to, I make my money primarily betting on the above average to good teams in this league.

Good luck and as always life is dandy being an educated capper named Handy!!
Click to expand...

Handy,
I feel if you post your stuff here, you would not be chastised as to your picks. You will always have some cats who do but for the most part, this site is awesome. Between BAR, KILLA, Ivy , JPicks and the rest of the awesome cappers here, you would be an asset with your forethought. I for one enjoyed reading your stuff and wish you were back.
 
Handy

Please excuse my post from above, as it wasn't very appropriate.

Basically what I was trying to say was that obviously buying pts. isnt a great strategy in the long haul, but if someone wants to do that its completely there choice.
 
Last edited:
SF_capper said:
This is kinda a discussion thread too. He's probably referring to Amachi nation's comments about buying points not knowing they were kidding.
Click to expand...

We are not kidding, being able to win long-term by laying -150 and -160's builds confidence and we feed off confidence. We like buying points and laying heavy juice, because we need a challenge :11_12_13:
 
Marlo is right this post is bullshit. Everyone knows Handy is a good capper. Gamblers do stupid things and they hardly ever think long run. If everyone thought weeks in advance, we wouldnt half the shit we bet. Everyone has a different angle. Im of the firm belief its the guys who are selective in their plays who are winning in the long run. They DONT have to do stupid shit like buying points. Even if you dont post a play, give some insight. You can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink.
 
Anytime a book gives you options it is going to be for their benefit, not yours. It can be buying points, parlays, teasers..whatever, in the long run if you actually do beat them you will do it on straight plays.
 
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