Bowl Thread 2008-2009.. Big play on SGU
- Thread starter tee*dub
- Start date
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Regarding the side-
I think we'll know very early which is the right side but very difficult for me to evaluate the matchups in the trenches beforehand- trenches which will be a key in this game.. Comfortable with this much-- Boise will not run on TCU. Okie couldn't as well as all the others who tried. This will make Boise very predictable IMO.. Big Advantage to TCU defense.. On the other side TCU is going to find it very difficult also. This Boise defense is pretty good and TCU is just OK on offense... I will look for a side at half but the under is pretty solid IMO..
Having said that, if a middle jumps out OR if I see a side I really like-- very likely to hedge the total..
Just saying-- game like this will have my dvr's rewind feature very active throughout the first half.. Just have a feeling the 2H side will be very easy..We'll see..
Like most, really looking forward to watching this game.. Its like a puzzle that needs solving.
I think we'll know very early which is the right side but very difficult for me to evaluate the matchups in the trenches beforehand- trenches which will be a key in this game.. Comfortable with this much-- Boise will not run on TCU. Okie couldn't as well as all the others who tried. This will make Boise very predictable IMO.. Big Advantage to TCU defense.. On the other side TCU is going to find it very difficult also. This Boise defense is pretty good and TCU is just OK on offense... I will look for a side at half but the under is pretty solid IMO..
Having said that, if a middle jumps out OR if I see a side I really like-- very likely to hedge the total..
Just saying-- game like this will have my dvr's rewind feature very active throughout the first half.. Just have a feeling the 2H side will be very easy..We'll see..
Like most, really looking forward to watching this game.. Its like a puzzle that needs solving.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
i agree totally tee. probably greater value at the half. its 1 of those games to bet small and enjoy until then. gl!
parisnovella
Pretty much a regular
GOOD JOB TEE*!
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
thanks Paris.. Nice 2-0 night, +6 uni's.
Came in almost exactly as I capped it.. Wish they were all that easy.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
It's hard to believe Boise St didn't let TCU score. It would have been their best chance to be down 8pts with almost 2 minutes and a timeout. I'm shocked because Boise St's coaching staff is pretty darn good at knowing this stuff. It was a no brainer. The only thing that could have gone wrong is if TCU had the presents of mind to stop short of the goal line. Either way its worth a shot.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Drinking the Vanzak coolaid I see... Agree it was the right strategy but 99.9% of all college coaches would never employ it.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
add:
Hawaii +2, -110; 4 units
Nice start to the Bowl season. 5-2 so far overall and 5-1 ATS. Going back to last bowl season, now 17-5 ATS on last 22 plays.. That is due to correct itself at some point so buyer beware.
I'll writeup some of my notes on this game in a few.
Hawaii +2, -110; 4 units
Nice start to the Bowl season. 5-2 so far overall and 5-1 ATS. Going back to last bowl season, now 17-5 ATS on last 22 plays.. That is due to correct itself at some point so buyer beware.
I'll writeup some of my notes on this game in a few.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
This game is in Hawaii, right?
Had a small lean on ND actually when the matchup was first released but upon further review actually made this a decent sized Hawaii play.
Throw out both teams first 4 games and you get a more accurate reflection IMO of how these teams will matchup:
Hawaii-
- 6-3 during the stretch with two of the three losses at Boise in a game that was much more competitive than the final score. Hawaii was down only 10-7 at HT and actually out firstdowned Boise 20-18 for the game. Another loss to a very good Cincy squad..
- Hawaii has a huge home field advantage as we all know but this team really balled well on the road this year also.. Have to have talent and discipline to get it done on the road and even some of the best Hawaii teams of the past struggled with that aspect.
- This is the second best team in the WAC IMO. At home one could make an argument, this is the best team in the WAC. Again, Hawaii's performance at Boise was very telling to me.
- 3-5 in the stretch with some bad losses against good competition but also some bad losses against very bad competition.
- Not scoring with consistency is going to be a problem tonight.. Fat-ass Weis calling plays is going to help? Nah, don't buy that at all. Historically that bullshit usually makes things worse. Now the players are even more tight because the big man is sending in "perfect" plays every down. Also, calling plays from field level is very different than from the booth, especially in a foreign enviroment.. Just don't buy into this helping ND dramatically, if anything I think it might hurt them..
- ND would have lost 4 or 5 games in the WAC this year.
Yep, go RB warriors..
J-Dog
Pretty much a regular
Tee would you buy a point to make it +3? Or do you like it as is?
I kind of want the extra protection.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
I would not buy a full point.. That will cost you -130, maybe -140... It might get to 2.5 on its own but I doubt it will get to 3.. It also could go back to a pick.. So not much help for you.. I think +2 is pretty good value as it protects against 1 point loss--- I am not willing to pay the extra vig to get 3 in this situation..:cheers:
parisnovella
Pretty much a regular
Gl tee*
i love over 48.5 today BUT NOT SURE YET ! What do you think?
i love over 48.5 today BUT NOT SURE YET ! What do you think?
J-Dog
Pretty much a regular
Just moved to 2.5. I bought the half. Hopefully we won't need it. Lets get this one. I've been in a slump the last week. I want to break out bad. I'm starting to question my picks. Never good.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
I think ND could have trouble scoring.. They have all year. I watched Hawaii hold Boise to 10 points in the first half on the blue turf.. That would concern me if I was considering the over..
If anything I lean slightly to the under.. GL in whatever you play..
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Nice play:cheers:
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
fuck it. Just chatted with HG a bit and he put me over the top.. Going top unit with this biatch..
Add two more units on Hawaii +3, -120
Also, please take out a Sharpie pen and correct your local newspaper.. In the TV listing section the following will be printed:
8:05 pm Notre Dame vs. Hawaii, ESPN
SHOULD READ
8:05 pm Notre Dame at Hawaii, ESPN
opcorn::drinking:
Add two more units on Hawaii +3, -120
Also, please take out a Sharpie pen and correct your local newspaper.. In the TV listing section the following will be printed:
8:05 pm Notre Dame vs. Hawaii, ESPN
SHOULD READ
8:05 pm Notre Dame at Hawaii, ESPN
opcorn::drinking:
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
A few guys have asked-- Don't think HG will mind if a cut and paste some excellent info he shared with me in a PM this afternoon..
From HG:
ND is coming into an extremely hostile environment today....
Charlie Weiss is making his third appearance in Hawaii in the last MONTH and has been recruiting at our high school games.....
Primarily, the #1 LB in the Country, #9 RIvals Recruit, and 5 Star Player Manti Teo.....(google this kid, Pete Carroll was just here and Teo is listed as USC's #1 Recruit).....
ND accepted this game for one purpose and Hawaii knows it.....recruiting.
Physically, Hawaii can match up with anyone.......penalties and our offensive line is the huge problem......(49 sacks)
ND has only 18 sacks for the year......it may be against better competition, but i think it is some indication of their pass rush abilities......
Hawaii will score at home......and the defense will get pressure and some turnovers....
I honestly think Hawaii will win by Double Digits......
parisnovella
Pretty much a regular
Over48.5
and over 24 2nd
... Gl tee*
and over 24 2nd
... Gl tee*
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Ya thanks.. totally missed the game pick but 2nd Half total was pretty easy.. Have hit several of those in a row.. Should probably just play em solely... Lost some units tonight but not real disappointed.. Live to play another day.
Feel bad for HG. Having to sit through this nightmare.. Bet he is in the parking lot at a post-tailgate by now.. Hope so..
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
6-3 so far in bowls..
add:
CMU -6.5, -120; 2 units
I rarely play this much chalk but about everything I looked at points to CMU.
Have several unposted tease and ML parlay combos with CMU at a pick so pretty invested in this game.
Plenty in the discussion thread on this one. Can't add much that hasn't already been said other than I think CMU defense will have a much easier time than FAU's defense. CMU very comfortable at this venue, 4-0 with all ATS winners recently.. Lefev now 100% for the first time in a long time. FAU beat no one of significance in recent late season run and Howard S. should win an award for his ability to talk the Motor City bowl commitee into placing this piece of shit team in the game..
FAU's offensive line was horseshit before the losses. Everyone thinks CMU's defense is bad. They are but I give them a chance to keep this game well in hand.. I would blitz every play and will not be surprised if that comes pretty close to happening.. Couple turnovers, many incompletions (QB completes only mid 50's) and a few long TDs will work fine..
Actually pretty good lean on the under, but no play..
Having said all this-- I'm the same guy who thought Hawaii defense could shut ND offense down:seeya:
add:
CMU -6.5, -120; 2 units
I rarely play this much chalk but about everything I looked at points to CMU.
Have several unposted tease and ML parlay combos with CMU at a pick so pretty invested in this game.
Plenty in the discussion thread on this one. Can't add much that hasn't already been said other than I think CMU defense will have a much easier time than FAU's defense. CMU very comfortable at this venue, 4-0 with all ATS winners recently.. Lefev now 100% for the first time in a long time. FAU beat no one of significance in recent late season run and Howard S. should win an award for his ability to talk the Motor City bowl commitee into placing this piece of shit team in the game..
FAU's offensive line was horseshit before the losses. Everyone thinks CMU's defense is bad. They are but I give them a chance to keep this game well in hand.. I would blitz every play and will not be surprised if that comes pretty close to happening.. Couple turnovers, many incompletions (QB completes only mid 50's) and a few long TDs will work fine..
Actually pretty good lean on the under, but no play..
Having said all this-- I'm the same guy who thought Hawaii defense could shut ND offense down:seeya:
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
Was thinking the same thing. One or two possesions ending w/o a score can probably put this under. So if FAU is playing w/o their kicker, does anybody know if they have a backup kicker?
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
FAU kicker from Jupiter finally gets his chance - and it's in a bowl game
By TOM D'ANGELO
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
DETROIT — Playing at Ford Field is a long way from Palm Beach Gardens High School.
But if the Florida Atlantic offense stalls within, say, the 30-yard line in the Motor City Bowl, Jupiter's Ross Gornall - who has not attempted a field goal since high school - could make that leap.
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DETROIT _ Those who have questioned why FAU would even accept a bowl bid should have had the ...
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Gornall, a junior, will replace kicker Warley Leroy for Friday's game against Central Michigan. Leroy was one of four Owls declared ineligible.
Gornall said getting his chance is "a dream come true. I'm here and I'm loving it."
Gornall's only action since graduating from Gardens in 2005 has been on kickoffs; he wrested that job from Leroy midway through the season.
After high school, Gornall spent one year at Auburn as a walk-on before transferring, first to Palm Beach Community College and then to FAU.
At Gardens, Gornall played soccer before starting to pay attention to the kicking of Brian Monroe, who went on to the University of Miami.
"That kind of got me into kicking," Gornall said of watching Monroe.
Gornall, who connected on a 49-yard field goal in high school, was hoping for a shot at a scholarship at Auburn, but saw that chance dwindle during his freshman year when the Tigers signed Wes Byrum from St. Thomas Aquinas in Fort Lauderdale.
Gornall made 10 of 12 attempts against a rush (one was blocked) at the end of Tuesday's practice, the team's first in Detroit. His final kick, from 52 yards, was good.
The Owls also will be depending on linebacker Edward Bradwell and offensive linemen Ryan Wischnefski and Vinnie Henderson to step in for ineligible players.
The three players have three combined starts, two by Henderson.
They will replace linebacker Andre Clark and offensive linemen Brandon Jackson and Kevin Miller.
"Losing two staring offensive linemen is big for us," quarterback Rusty Smith said. "A lot of our protections are built on chemistry with the offensive line."
Smith, though, is confident that Wischnefski and Henderson will fill the void.
Bradwell had 35 tackles and a sack.
"That's the nature of the game," leading tackler Frantz Joseph said about the losses. "Edward is a physical player, fast. He's had a great week of practice."
Mags
The Magsnificent One
This is exactly what I was talking about! FUCK, hate routing for under's but this might be the time to do it!
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
good luck dude, I own a -6 ticket for CMU...an 8 popped up and I'm doing the same...every way I look at this its a 7pt game.
Hit the under as well.
Sorry about the Vikes last week man, would make that bet 10/10 again.
Glad you see what I see in that game this wkd.
:cheers:
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
Thanks for the link on the kicker t-dub. So this kicker hasn't attempted a fg since high school, hell yeah! I hope they give him chances, haha. Don't be surprised if this guy misses an extra point. CMU knows he's a backup and will be probably coming hard for this guy up the middle.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Ya, turnovers, as they often do, totally changed the complex of that game.. Also, I was real disappointed in Metrodome crowd.. Very spotty at best.. Do the Vikes (and the fans) show up this week or do they they take the unmotivated Giants for granted? That is a question that needs answering.
Rough week in the NFL last week for me.. Wasn't even close on any game actually.. Humbling but I don't sweat it.. 1 play in 10,000..
GL this week Marlo.. Vikes will get some money from me in some manner.. Line getting away from me a bit though now .
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
my 3 dimes had no effect on the total.. Staying steady at 70.
I middled my game side mostly to keep things simple tonight as I really fell in love with the under.. FWIW, I still think CMU is the right side but I am off it.... 37-30 CMU victory would work swell for me..:cheers:
I middled my game side mostly to keep things simple tonight as I really fell in love with the under.. FWIW, I still think CMU is the right side but I am off it.... 37-30 CMU victory would work swell for me..:cheers:
RambleOn
The Law of Winning
RambleOn
The Law of Winning
Sorry, quoted the wrong post.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Yeah I noticed the tough week, but quite a few of those plays you had I would make again in a heartbeat, you have had plenty of success so days like that you just swollow your pride and move on to the next day.
Been kinda outta the loop this week with sports, cuz of the holidays...but what I have been hearing is that...AP took the loss on himself...they have been working on fitting him with a special glove...as well as working with him non stop this week to enable him to continue to run the way he runs, but to help him protect the ball...The crowd sucked last week...there was the elephant in the room that has caused us to think we will find a way to screw this up as we do every year....but me thinks with the line set the way it is...no way we see any Giants starters for more than a quarter....There was some talk that Childress was going to remove the Bears/Houston game from the scoreboard so they don't let up at all.
I guess we will see, will be making a play at -7
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I think its a classic early bird gets the worm in this one and we see a 35-28game.
S
signalcaller
Guest
Wish I would have saw this. congrats Tee
