BenchCoach Bowl Games Part I

[BenchCoach]

Part I will run from December 20th-24th. Unit size will be $300 for Part I. I will be running a simulation of each match up during Part I. Each game will be simulated 7 times. All plays are one unit unless otherwise stated...gl guys

Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo -6.5 -110

* I may add a unit to this play. Buffalo has a slight edge in points allowed over its last 5 games. Buffalo has the edge in strength of schedule. Buffalo has the a significant advantage in Run Defense. These initial factors make it an easy pull of the trigger for me. Still looking into this matchup. Will most likely be adding plays in some form or fashion.

 

[BenchCoach]

Simulation Results

Buffalo	28	Charlotte	13	(1-0-0)
Buffalo	45	Charlotte	20	(2-0-0)
Buffalo	38	Charlotte	29	(3-0-0)
Buffalo	35	Charlotte	14	(4-0-0)
Buffalo	29	Charlotte	14	(5-0-0)
Buffalo	38	Charlotte	29	(6-0-0)
Buffalo	21	Charlotte	14	(7-0-0)

 

[BenchCoach]

Will only have one unit on Buffalo on account of their conference...In fact it looks like my only play from this conference...have what looks like a pretty good sized play on Saturday in the New Mexico Bowl...probably won't put it in till later this week....will be back with some thoughts on the Frisco bowl later tonight or tomorrow, could be a shit ton of points in that game as both defenses are Swiss cheese as of late

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL Coach

 

[BenchCoach]

New Mexico Bowl
208 San Diego State -3 -115 (2*)
207 Central Michigan Under 17½ -115
207 Central Michigan/San Diego State 1st Half Under 20 -115

Simulation Results

San Diego St	28	C Michigan	7	(1-0-0)
San Diego St	23	C Michigan	3	(2-0-0)
San Diego St	14	C Michigan	17	(2-1-0)
San Diego St	10	C Michigan	4	(3-1-0)
San Diego St	39	C Michigan	34	(4-1-0)
San Diego St	3	C Michigan	0	(5-1-0)
San Diego St	9	C Michigan	6	(6-1-0)

 

[BenchCoach]

Cure Bowl
209 Liberty/Georgia Southern Over 58 -105 (dime)
210 Georgia Southern -5½ -105

Simulation Results

Liberty	23	Ga Southern	27	(0-1-0)
Liberty	26	Ga Southern	27	(0-2-0)
Liberty	17	Ga Southern	39	(0-3-0)
Liberty	37	Ga Southern	34	(1-3-0)
Liberty	48	Ga Southern	41	(2-3-0)
Liberty	14	Ga Southern	15	(2-4-0)
Liberty	24	Ga Southern	44	(2-5-0)

 

[Park Ranger]

GL Coach
Thanks for the work

 

[B.A.R.]

Nothing wrong with that beginning card.

 

[sportcap]

Coach why did you play the Over in Ga/Liberty when you simulations had OU 2-5?

 

[BenchCoach]

Coach why did you play the Over in Ga/Liberty when you simulations had OU 2-5?

simulations are just one of a bunch of factors I incorporate. I use the simulation more for the spread than the total. Sometimes the sim totals are whacked out...My favorite totals in bowl games have much more to do with the last 5 games defensive numbers for each team

 

[BenchCoach]

Camellia Bowl
213 Florida International/Arkansas State Over 60 -105

In the truck, just wanted to get it posted...I will edit and post sims for this match when I get home

 

[inZane]

It's raining and will continue for a while it looks like.

 

[BenchCoach]

Simulation Results

Arkansas St	38	Florida Intl	28	(1-0-0)
Arkansas St	24	Florida Intl	53	(1-1-0)
Arkansas St	38	Florida Intl	35	(2-1-0)
Arkansas St	24	Florida Intl	21	(3-1-0)
Arkansas St	28	Florida Intl	17	(4-1-0)
Arkansas St	32	Florida Intl	31	(5-1-0)
Arkansas St	41	Florida Intl	21	(6-1-0)

 

[BenchCoach]

Las Vegas Bowl
216 Boise State +158
216 Boise State +3½ -105

Simulation Results

Boise St	38	Washington	31	(1-0-0)
Boise St	23	Washington	24	(1-1-0)
Boise St	7	Washington	52	(1-2-0)
Boise St	21	Washington	19	(2-2-0)
Boise St	27	Washington	30	(2-3-0)
Boise St	26	Washington	10	(3-3-0)
Boise St	16	Washington	21	(3-4-0)

 

[BenchCoach]

New Orleans Bowl
217 UAB/Appalachian State Over 47½ -108
218 Appalachian State 1st Half -9½ -105
218 Appalachian State Over 33½ -106
218 Appalachian State -17 -108 (2*)

Simulation Results

Appalachian St	34	UAB	6	(1-0-0)
Appalachian St	41	UAB	3	(2-0-0)
Appalachian St	45	UAB	10	(3-0-0)
Appalachian St	44	UAB	0	(4-0-0)
Appalachian St	45	UAB	13	(5-0-0)
Appalachian St	24	UAB	3	(6-0-0)
Appalachian St	35	UAB	12	(7-0-0)