Hesnotmypres
Pretty much a regular
Belmont Day thoughts:
Race 1: #1 Stanford got a rest after a game effort finishing 2nd in LA Derby, seems to be the class of the race especially with early scratch of #5 Donworth, but will be a short price in this short field. Has been working in the mornings with Materiality and has been more than holding his own against that possible Belmont winner. #3 Japan comes in after breaking maiden in 3rd try, ran 2nd to a pretty good horse in Wisecracker 2 back, might be able to get a nice setup if the 2 Pletchers battle each other early.. #4 Nonna's Boy stretching out from sprint distances for first time but pedigree suggests he shouldn't mind and might even relish the extra distance, work tab is not as impressive as stable mate Stanford but Johnny V may try to steal this on the front end and make them run him down, appears to be the value in the race as the 2nd Pletcher. #5 Donworth, if he stays in, appears to be a major threat. Making only 4th start so has every right to still improve and speed figure wise is already right there with Stanford.
Not a great betting race with only 4 or 5 running, #4 intrigues me if near the 6-1ML for some value. Pick 5 play 1,3,4/7,8/3/4,8,13/2,4 ;1/2,4,7,8/3,4,6/4,8/2,4
Race 2: #4 Tiz Shea D drops down in class and cuts back half a panel after trying the Derby trail and Peter Pan, would probably appreciate it if there was a little more early speed signed on here, class relief only makes him a contender. #2 Wisecracker ran into a couple of tough runners in first 2 attempts in Khozan and Unbridled Juan down in Florida before breaking maiden against Easy Goer entrant Japan in last has shown some versatility and will be a contender. #1 Gold Shield seems to always run decent and is a nice option to underneath in exotics. Will look to the outside for top 2 choices, #7 Tommy Macho was switched to Pletcher barn after debut and won next out, stretches out here after showing a nice turn of foot sprinting and would expect to be a little closer to the lead early on here, might catch a nice price with an improving young horse. Cal shipper #8 Smart Transition has shown steady progression in first 3 starts, although he has had a tendency to find some trouble, gets a top local jock and sports a few works over the surface.
Win #7; EXB 7,8; Tri 7,8/1,2,4,7,8/1,2,4,7,8; Pick 4 2,4,7,8/3,6/4,8,10/2,4
Race 3: #3 Competitive Edge is a perfect 4-4 and hasn't seen a rival come with 4 lengths at the wire, which while obviously impressive may say something of the competition he has faced. Will have to avoid getting in a speed duel with #5 Cinco Charlie. Will be a short price and the obvious single in multi race bets. #1 Ready for Rye, may have bounced in last across town at Aqueduct after running a huge race in the Swale, got a freshening after last but comes in with a steady work tab, rail draw may put him up against it with plenty of other speed signed in here. #4 Two Weeks Off should appreciate the cut back to 7F, distance of both wins including a Keeneland track record 2 back. #6 Classy Class is another cutting back in distance and has the versatile and post position to sit off what may be an early speed duel, trainer has been hot as anyone not named Pletcher and a definite contender at what might be a juicy price.
WP #6; Ex 3/4,6; 6/3,4; Tri 3,6/3,4,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 4: Chad Brown is best at taking Euro imports and winning first time over here and will try to do so in this spot with France bred #8 Helwan, first time Lasix and drops 14 pounds off last effort. #4 Ageless is a mare taking on boys, something she did last in the BC Turf Sprint where she missed by 3/4 length, retains jockey Leparoux who had other options, offers value for bottom of exotics. #1 Power Alert is an accomplished turf sprinter who will be gunning it early from the rail and make the field catch him, think he prefers a shorter trip though and would limit to underneath. #6 Something Extra should be providing the early pressure on #1 but doesn't need the lead and has a bit more stamina than Power Alert. #10 Channel Marker will be coming late and with enough early speed signed on here could very well hit the board at a nice price. #13 Mosler is a horse I have been following since before his first start, has only 2 turf start but is bred for the footing and has been steadily improving has some early speed but also the stamina to stay on, will need to work out a trip and probably won't be saving any ground from this outside post, but another contender in a deep race.
WPS #8; Ex 8/4,6,10,13; 4,13/4,8,10,13; Tri 8/4,10,13/1,4,6,10,13; 4,10/8/1,4,6,10,13; Pick 3 8,10/2,4/5,8
Race 5: #4 Untapable has never done anything wrong and is the one to beat in this short field but the fields she has beaten as a 4yo have not been exemplary and will have to close into a race lacking early speed. #2 Wedding Toast looms the main threat and should be closer to the front and get the jump on the favorite. #5 Princess Violet loves the Belmont and appears to be the logical 3rd choice who could challenge if either of top 2 don't fire.
Pick 3: 2,4/5,8/1,6,8,10,12
Good Luck Lloyd
