Play2win
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Here's my pk4
Belmont Stakes Weekend discussion thread
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Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 7 Pick 3: 1,4,8,14/7,8/1,4,5
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
I think 10 got it
Hesnotmypres
Pretty much a regular
Play race was over in first 1/4 for the 8, he just fought him...took all the spirit from him...
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Agree guys, Lezcano is a good turf rider, but should have let him go.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
agree
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R8: top choice is #7 Clearly Now, always have been a huge fan of, has lost a step now at 5 years old but his last race was encouraging, #5 only grade 1 winner in field and he is a multiple G1 winner, changed tactics in last and is a player in here off layoff, #8 could win but this is by far the toughest field he has faced.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 8 Pick 3: 1,7,8/1,4,5/2,3,9
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
R10 Special Double, Bel Gold Cup/Belmont DD
Played it pretty good
Fri Gold Cup: #2 Innovation Economy, #9 Manchurian High
Sat Belmont Stakes: #6 Frosted, #8 Materiality
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Bel R10:
#9 (8-1) is very interesting, raced in G1 two back and only beaten 11/4 lengths..then in last was off layoff with impossible trip, in tight start and swung super wide
#2 has great connections and has drastically improved being stretched to longer distances
#3 could win but I don't want 3 favs to win pk3, ran a big race 2 back winning at today's 2 mile distance
#1 should handle distance no problem
#5 I'm against and will take $
#11 is live at a price, 2 decent races at this distance..beaten 1 length this race last yr
#6 off the claim, likely claimed with this race in mind, very nice 2 mile race back in Jan at Gulfstream
#9 (8-1) is very interesting, raced in G1 two back and only beaten 11/4 lengths..then in last was off layoff with impossible trip, in tight start and swung super wide
#2 has great connections and has drastically improved being stretched to longer distances
#3 could win but I don't want 3 favs to win pk3, ran a big race 2 back winning at today's 2 mile distance
#1 should handle distance no problem
#5 I'm against and will take $
#11 is live at a price, 2 decent races at this distance..beaten 1 length this race last yr
#6 off the claim, likely claimed with this race in mind, very nice 2 mile race back in Jan at Gulfstream
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Got a big price, now lets get 2,3 or 9 home in the finale
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Thanks kj
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
:shake:
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Added smaller DD's #6,11/6,8
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Horse he beat in last came back to win G3 in his next start
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Hedged a little with win bets on 5 and 11
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Crazy long race, and there are some horses in here with a little early zip
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Nice way to finish the day, a $450 Pick 3
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
:cheers3:
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Between this and my score in R4 it was a good day
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
:cheers3:
G
Gyno
Guest
my longshot is # 3 madefromlucky.
Recent win @ track, good works, should relish distance. This horse is legit.
Recent win @ track, good works, should relish distance. This horse is legit.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
[h=2]Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes $2 daily double will pays[/h]Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes $2 daily double will pays:
Pool: $756,482
No. 2 Innovation Economy ($7) in the Gold Cup with/
1) Mubtaahij, $87.50
2) Tale of Verve, $214.50
3) Madefromlucky, $123
4) Frammento, $266
5) American Pharoah, $15
6) Frosted, 44.80
7) Keen Ice, $178.50
8) Materiality, $51
Pool: $756,482
No. 2 Innovation Economy ($7) in the Gold Cup with/
1) Mubtaahij, $87.50
2) Tale of Verve, $214.50
3) Madefromlucky, $123
4) Frammento, $266
5) American Pharoah, $15
6) Frosted, 44.80
7) Keen Ice, $178.50
8) Materiality, $51
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Dwight
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Belmont Day thoughts:
Race 1: #1 Stanford got a rest after a game effort finishing 2nd in LA Derby, seems to be the class of the race especially with early scratch of #5 Donworth, but will be a short price in this short field. Has been working in the mornings with Materiality and has been more than holding his own against that possible Belmont winner. #3 Japan comes in after breaking maiden in 3rd try, ran 2nd to a pretty good horse in Wisecracker 2 back, might be able to get a nice setup if the 2 Pletchers battle each other early.. #4 Nonna's Boy stretching out from sprint distances for first time but pedigree suggests he shouldn't mind and might even relish the extra distance, work tab is not as impressive as stable mate Stanford but Johnny V may try to steal this on the front end and make them run him down, appears to be the value in the race as the 2nd Pletcher. #5 Donworth, if he stays in, appears to be a major threat. Making only 4th start so has every right to still improve and speed figure wise is already right there with Stanford.
Not a great betting race with only 4 or 5 running, #4 intrigues me if near the 6-1ML for some value. Pick 5 play 1,3,4/7,8/3/4,8,13/2,4 ;1/2,4,7,8/3,4,6/4,8/2,4
Race 2: #4 Tiz Shea D drops down in class and cuts back half a panel after trying the Derby trail and Peter Pan, would probably appreciate it if there was a little more early speed signed on here, class relief only makes him a contender. #2 Wisecracker ran into a couple of tough runners in first 2 attempts in Khozan and Unbridled Juan down in Florida before breaking maiden against Easy Goer entrant Japan in last has shown some versatility and will be a contender. #1 Gold Shield seems to always run decent and is a nice option to underneath in exotics. Will look to the outside for top 2 choices, #7 Tommy Macho was switched to Pletcher barn after debut and won next out, stretches out here after showing a nice turn of foot sprinting and would expect to be a little closer to the lead early on here, might catch a nice price with an improving young horse. Cal shipper #8 Smart Transition has shown steady progression in first 3 starts, although he has had a tendency to find some trouble, gets a top local jock and sports a few works over the surface.
Win #7; EXB 7,8; Tri 7,8/1,2,4,7,8/1,2,4,7,8; Pick 4 2,4,7,8/3,6/4,8,10/2,4
Race 3: #3 Competitive Edge is a perfect 4-4 and hasn't seen a rival come with 4 lengths at the wire, which while obviously impressive may say something of the competition he has faced. Will have to avoid getting in a speed duel with #5 Cinco Charlie. Will be a short price and the obvious single in multi race bets. #1 Ready for Rye, may have bounced in last across town at Aqueduct after running a huge race in the Swale, got a freshening after last but comes in with a steady work tab, rail draw may put him up against it with plenty of other speed signed in here. #4 Two Weeks Off should appreciate the cut back to 7F, distance of both wins including a Keeneland track record 2 back. #6 Classy Class is another cutting back in distance and has the versatile and post position to sit off what may be an early speed duel, trainer has been hot as anyone not named Pletcher and a definite contender at what might be a juicy price.
WP #6; Ex 3/4,6; 6/3,4; Tri 3,6/3,4,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 4: Chad Brown is best at taking Euro imports and winning first time over here and will try to do so in this spot with France bred #8 Helwan, first time Lasix and drops 14 pounds off last effort. #4 Ageless is a mare taking on boys, something she did last in the BC Turf Sprint where she missed by 3/4 length, retains jockey Leparoux who had other options, offers value for bottom of exotics. #1 Power Alert is an accomplished turf sprinter who will be gunning it early from the rail and make the field catch him, think he prefers a shorter trip though and would limit to underneath. #6 Something Extra should be providing the early pressure on #1 but doesn't need the lead and has a bit more stamina than Power Alert. #10 Channel Marker will be coming late and with enough early speed signed on here could very well hit the board at a nice price. #13 Mosler is a horse I have been following since before his first start, has only 2 turf start but is bred for the footing and has been steadily improving has some early speed but also the stamina to stay on, will need to work out a trip and probably won't be saving any ground from this outside post, but another contender in a deep race.
WPS #8; Ex 8/4,6,10,13; 4,13/4,8,10,13; Tri 8/4,10,13/1,4,6,10,13; 4,10/8/1,4,6,10,13; Pick 3 8,10/2,4/5,8
Race 5: #4 Untapable has never done anything wrong and is the one to beat in this short field but the fields she has beaten as a 4yo have not been exemplary and will have to close into a race lacking early speed. #2 Wedding Toast looms the main threat and should be closer to the front and get the jump on the favorite. #5 Princess Violet loves the Belmont and appears to be the logical 3rd choice who could challenge if either of top 2 don't fire.
Pick 3: 2,4/5,8/1,6,8,10,12
Race 1: #1 Stanford got a rest after a game effort finishing 2nd in LA Derby, seems to be the class of the race especially with early scratch of #5 Donworth, but will be a short price in this short field. Has been working in the mornings with Materiality and has been more than holding his own against that possible Belmont winner. #3 Japan comes in after breaking maiden in 3rd try, ran 2nd to a pretty good horse in Wisecracker 2 back, might be able to get a nice setup if the 2 Pletchers battle each other early.. #4 Nonna's Boy stretching out from sprint distances for first time but pedigree suggests he shouldn't mind and might even relish the extra distance, work tab is not as impressive as stable mate Stanford but Johnny V may try to steal this on the front end and make them run him down, appears to be the value in the race as the 2nd Pletcher. #5 Donworth, if he stays in, appears to be a major threat. Making only 4th start so has every right to still improve and speed figure wise is already right there with Stanford.
Not a great betting race with only 4 or 5 running, #4 intrigues me if near the 6-1ML for some value. Pick 5 play 1,3,4/7,8/3/4,8,13/2,4 ;1/2,4,7,8/3,4,6/4,8/2,4
Race 2: #4 Tiz Shea D drops down in class and cuts back half a panel after trying the Derby trail and Peter Pan, would probably appreciate it if there was a little more early speed signed on here, class relief only makes him a contender. #2 Wisecracker ran into a couple of tough runners in first 2 attempts in Khozan and Unbridled Juan down in Florida before breaking maiden against Easy Goer entrant Japan in last has shown some versatility and will be a contender. #1 Gold Shield seems to always run decent and is a nice option to underneath in exotics. Will look to the outside for top 2 choices, #7 Tommy Macho was switched to Pletcher barn after debut and won next out, stretches out here after showing a nice turn of foot sprinting and would expect to be a little closer to the lead early on here, might catch a nice price with an improving young horse. Cal shipper #8 Smart Transition has shown steady progression in first 3 starts, although he has had a tendency to find some trouble, gets a top local jock and sports a few works over the surface.
Win #7; EXB 7,8; Tri 7,8/1,2,4,7,8/1,2,4,7,8; Pick 4 2,4,7,8/3,6/4,8,10/2,4
Race 3: #3 Competitive Edge is a perfect 4-4 and hasn't seen a rival come with 4 lengths at the wire, which while obviously impressive may say something of the competition he has faced. Will have to avoid getting in a speed duel with #5 Cinco Charlie. Will be a short price and the obvious single in multi race bets. #1 Ready for Rye, may have bounced in last across town at Aqueduct after running a huge race in the Swale, got a freshening after last but comes in with a steady work tab, rail draw may put him up against it with plenty of other speed signed in here. #4 Two Weeks Off should appreciate the cut back to 7F, distance of both wins including a Keeneland track record 2 back. #6 Classy Class is another cutting back in distance and has the versatile and post position to sit off what may be an early speed duel, trainer has been hot as anyone not named Pletcher and a definite contender at what might be a juicy price.
WP #6; Ex 3/4,6; 6/3,4; Tri 3,6/3,4,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 4: Chad Brown is best at taking Euro imports and winning first time over here and will try to do so in this spot with France bred #8 Helwan, first time Lasix and drops 14 pounds off last effort. #4 Ageless is a mare taking on boys, something she did last in the BC Turf Sprint where she missed by 3/4 length, retains jockey Leparoux who had other options, offers value for bottom of exotics. #1 Power Alert is an accomplished turf sprinter who will be gunning it early from the rail and make the field catch him, think he prefers a shorter trip though and would limit to underneath. #6 Something Extra should be providing the early pressure on #1 but doesn't need the lead and has a bit more stamina than Power Alert. #10 Channel Marker will be coming late and with enough early speed signed on here could very well hit the board at a nice price. #13 Mosler is a horse I have been following since before his first start, has only 2 turf start but is bred for the footing and has been steadily improving has some early speed but also the stamina to stay on, will need to work out a trip and probably won't be saving any ground from this outside post, but another contender in a deep race.
WPS #8; Ex 8/4,6,10,13; 4,13/4,8,10,13; Tri 8/4,10,13/1,4,6,10,13; 4,10/8/1,4,6,10,13; Pick 3 8,10/2,4/5,8
Race 5: #4 Untapable has never done anything wrong and is the one to beat in this short field but the fields she has beaten as a 4yo have not been exemplary and will have to close into a race lacking early speed. #2 Wedding Toast looms the main threat and should be closer to the front and get the jump on the favorite. #5 Princess Violet loves the Belmont and appears to be the logical 3rd choice who could challenge if either of top 2 don't fire.
Pick 3: 2,4/5,8/1,6,8,10,12
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Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Race 6: #5 Effinex just keeps improving and is 3 for 5 since adding blinkers, contender. Stable mate and Travers winner, #8 VE Day is bred to relish this 12F distance and trainer Jerkens excels going turf to dirt, with 7 wins in 15 attempts for a $7.86 ROI, the top selection. #10 Sky Kingdom is 2 for 2 at the distance over dirt and will be the one they have to catch with the scratch of Red Rifle. Will use the Pletcher entry underneath.
WP #8; Ex 8/1,5,10; 5,10/1,5,8,10; Tri 8/1,5,10/1,5,10 Pick 3: 8/1,6,8,10,12/4,7,8
Race 8: #8 Ball Dancing is the top selection for Brown and Castellano, has done nothing wrong in 4 US starts. #4 Coffee Clique is always tough and should be right there at the finish but doesn't offer much value. #7 J Wonder should, however, stumbled at the start of last and was running in Group races in GB, has some tactical speed and can close.
WPS #7; Ex 7,8/4,7,8; Tri 7,8/4,7,8/2,3,4,7,8 Pick 4 4,7,8/4,6/2,4,9/1,6,8
Race 9: #4 Tonalist loves Belmont and is 4-4 over the surface, will be tough to beat in a great edition of the Met Mile. #1 Private Zone will be gunning early and if #7 Bayern repeats his no show effort from last could get loose on the lead, but I see this one being worn down by this field. #6 Wicked Strong has been burning up track in the morning after racing like he needed a race in last, should get a nice stalking trip and be right there at the finish. The aforementioned Bayern appears to need the lead and probably won't get it here, will try to beat. #9 Honor Code has always shown talent and should appreciate the return back to 1 turn, which he seems to thrive at. #5 Tamarkuz is a bit of a wild card and one who can add value to the exotics.
Race 10: #3 Finnegans Wake beat me Derby day and he will have to again today. #2 Twilight Eclipse finally broke through with a G1 victory in the Man O War and should once again appreciate the lack of Main Sequence in here. #4 War Dancer just missed against Twilight Eclipse and may be ready for another step forward 3 off he layoff and in the Mott barn. #5 Big Blue Kitten will be closing strong and should be ready 2nd off a layoff for Brown and Ramsey. #7 Slumber may offer some value underneath. Going to take a swing with multiple Group winner and Euro invader, #9 Magic Artist, whose connections thought enough to be the jock with them.
WPS #9; Ex 9/2,4,5,7; 2,4/2,4,7,9 Tri 9/2,4,7/2,4,5,7
Race 11: Do we see history? I think American Pharoah is the best horse in here but this is where we have seen some just as good not get it done. 3 race in 5 weeks, 4th in 8 weeks, a jockey who is 2 for 67 at Belmont (I forget where I read that this week so I may be off a little, but Espinoza does have awful numbers here), 12F for a horse not really bred for this distance and a really short price means I will try to beat him. #8 Materiality lost all shot when he hesitated coming out of the gate in the Derby, has top Beyer figure in the race from his FL Derby win and comes in rested. Has the early speed to either pressure AP or make that one catch him and has the pedigree to last the distance, top selection. #6 Frosted closed pretty well in the Derby and comes in for a red hot trainer in McLaughlin, should get fractions to close into without the traffic of a big field and has a shot. #1 Mubtaahij had to ship from Dubai and quarantine in Arlington to prep for the Derby, he has been able to settle in at the track and work over the surface, he may just not be fast enough but is in a much better spot here than his last for a great trainer in de Kock and gets a top local jockey. #3 Madefromlucky will look to follow the path Tonalist did last year in taking the local prep the Peter Pan, should be able to sit off the early pace and be involved at the end.
Win #8; WPS #1; EXB 1,6,8; Tri 1,6,8/1,3,6,8/1,3,5,6,8
BOL to all. I'm heading out early to try to beat the crowd to the Park. If I hear anything interesting by the barns in the morning I will try to post it here.
WP #8; Ex 8/1,5,10; 5,10/1,5,8,10; Tri 8/1,5,10/1,5,10 Pick 3: 8/1,6,8,10,12/4,7,8
Race 8: #8 Ball Dancing is the top selection for Brown and Castellano, has done nothing wrong in 4 US starts. #4 Coffee Clique is always tough and should be right there at the finish but doesn't offer much value. #7 J Wonder should, however, stumbled at the start of last and was running in Group races in GB, has some tactical speed and can close.
WPS #7; Ex 7,8/4,7,8; Tri 7,8/4,7,8/2,3,4,7,8 Pick 4 4,7,8/4,6/2,4,9/1,6,8
Race 9: #4 Tonalist loves Belmont and is 4-4 over the surface, will be tough to beat in a great edition of the Met Mile. #1 Private Zone will be gunning early and if #7 Bayern repeats his no show effort from last could get loose on the lead, but I see this one being worn down by this field. #6 Wicked Strong has been burning up track in the morning after racing like he needed a race in last, should get a nice stalking trip and be right there at the finish. The aforementioned Bayern appears to need the lead and probably won't get it here, will try to beat. #9 Honor Code has always shown talent and should appreciate the return back to 1 turn, which he seems to thrive at. #5 Tamarkuz is a bit of a wild card and one who can add value to the exotics.
Race 10: #3 Finnegans Wake beat me Derby day and he will have to again today. #2 Twilight Eclipse finally broke through with a G1 victory in the Man O War and should once again appreciate the lack of Main Sequence in here. #4 War Dancer just missed against Twilight Eclipse and may be ready for another step forward 3 off he layoff and in the Mott barn. #5 Big Blue Kitten will be closing strong and should be ready 2nd off a layoff for Brown and Ramsey. #7 Slumber may offer some value underneath. Going to take a swing with multiple Group winner and Euro invader, #9 Magic Artist, whose connections thought enough to be the jock with them.
WPS #9; Ex 9/2,4,5,7; 2,4/2,4,7,9 Tri 9/2,4,7/2,4,5,7
Race 11: Do we see history? I think American Pharoah is the best horse in here but this is where we have seen some just as good not get it done. 3 race in 5 weeks, 4th in 8 weeks, a jockey who is 2 for 67 at Belmont (I forget where I read that this week so I may be off a little, but Espinoza does have awful numbers here), 12F for a horse not really bred for this distance and a really short price means I will try to beat him. #8 Materiality lost all shot when he hesitated coming out of the gate in the Derby, has top Beyer figure in the race from his FL Derby win and comes in rested. Has the early speed to either pressure AP or make that one catch him and has the pedigree to last the distance, top selection. #6 Frosted closed pretty well in the Derby and comes in for a red hot trainer in McLaughlin, should get fractions to close into without the traffic of a big field and has a shot. #1 Mubtaahij had to ship from Dubai and quarantine in Arlington to prep for the Derby, he has been able to settle in at the track and work over the surface, he may just not be fast enough but is in a much better spot here than his last for a great trainer in de Kock and gets a top local jockey. #3 Madefromlucky will look to follow the path Tonalist did last year in taking the local prep the Peter Pan, should be able to sit off the early pace and be involved at the end.
Win #8; WPS #1; EXB 1,6,8; Tri 1,6,8/1,3,6,8/1,3,5,6,8
BOL to all. I'm heading out early to try to beat the crowd to the Park. If I hear anything interesting by the barns in the morning I will try to post it here.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Dwight, hopefully there's a couple of winners there.
