BAW Nation 2019 Majors Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Dechambeau to win Masters +2200


Much more to come but wanted to post with a current price now. I will most likely have 2 more pre-tourney 'to win' bets and then will add 1-2 as the tournament progresses.

We'll see if they put out a soft number on the hole-in-one prop again. I'll also be looking at some different groupings (low senior etc).

Can-Not-Wait- for next week...
 
Any thoughts on Johnny Rahm? I hate that man baby but he was damn close last year. I see +1700, was hoping for +2000
 
aplous said:
Any thoughts on Johnny Rahm? I hate that man baby but he was damn close last year. I see +1700, was hoping for +2000
Click to expand...
I took him last year and he teased us for sure. He is one I am looking at during the tourney at a better number. I feel he's a guy that can go 67-66 or so on the weekend. So, basically hoping for an uneven start.
 
I think the biggest issue with Rahm is his temper. Augusta is one of those places where you can hit a good shot and get a horrible result. How he manages those situations will determine how successful he can be there
 
B.A.R. said:
Dechambeau to win Masters +2200


Much more to come but wanted to post with a current price now. I will most likely have 2 more pre-tourney 'to win' bets and then will add 1-2 as the tournament progresses.

We'll see if they put out a soft number on the hole-in-one prop again. I'll also be looking at some different groupings (low senior etc).

Can-Not-Wait- for next week...
Click to expand...

Love Bryson this week. Pedigree to me is huge here and his price drifted up enough to take a stab. Let’s get it unless Eldrick comes home ;)
 
That is it.

I cam counting on the CH3 bet to cover most of these futures. I did not play top Asian like used to be clockwork and the Top Senior bet is no longer a gimme. I also stayed away from my Hole In One prop this year.

All good though.

I will say, I have like 3 matches that I LOVE but I know better. Every time I bet too many matches on my own I regret it. The thing is, two of them are stinking plus money. Hmmm... might add for smaller still before the morning.

I will add 1-2 more by the weekend. The only way this is a bad week is if Danny Willett has a pulse. I do not think he does and that number is well above 200 now.
 
Well, I think we need Willett to shoot a few over at least tomorrow. He was free falling after the triple at 10 but recovered a bit. CH3 really butchered 15 and 18 coming home.
 
Dayum, if DeShampoo hadn't been a bitch today we'd really be cooking right now. The sick part is I had Scott and Sergio as late leans. I added the wrong one. Oh well, got 2 guys in position.
 
Both a bit smaller. I added two guys I think can make a move tomorrow and are capable of -8-10 over the last two rounds. This leaderboard is so bunched it's like throwing darts. This basically puts me around even for the tournament with the H2H matchup in the books.
 
I need Bryson to stay in it to keep the top 10 trio bet alive. It's definitely doable.
 
Heck of a start BAR! Bryson is by no means out of this or really just about anyone else. Should be a fun and wild ride this weekend!
 
Well, lets go low X and Brooks. Mole gonna be real tough to beat... Tony...and then Tiger lurking.
 
Never posted but played small piece on DJ too Saturday night around 5am

I was able to get Tiger +275 when mole went in the water. I was working and looked at my phone and got the text he was in. I blindly bet it. So, nothing big but made me a very small winner for tourney.

I will say though...I am DAYUM good on picking every guy that finished 2nd!! #CurseOfDeki

Amazing stuff, finally watched in full this evening. Remember the moment.
 
Alright, time for the 2nd major of the year.

My favorite for the tournament is Koepka. He is the best majors player in the world currently and this course is long and tough. It fits in with what he can do. Now, my worry is that is is not a big fan of Poa but he won at Shinnecock so it isn't like it cannot be done.

I have several guys circled to look at as possible plays during the tournament.

Pre-tourney Plays:


Winning Score Over 271.5 -140
Hole in One = NO -110
Fritelli -115 vs Champ (tail)
Spieth to MISS cut +175
Rose +1750
Fleetwood +2800
Woodland +5000
Kisner +9000

These are not all staked the same, do as you wish if you play any of these.

Now, since the magical majors run of 2017 I am DAMN good at picking guys that finish 2nd or 3rd so maybe I should be doing top 5's/top 10's, right?

I'll add as the week goes on.... if need be.

As far as Tiger... he has a win here and the t-6 on the bad side of the draw. He knows the place. If his driver is on point, he will be right there. I do not like the 5 week break.

Why Fleetwood? This should play like a U.S. Open. I think that is his style.

Kisner is grits baby, so yeah a small play on that, why not?

Gary is long and if he gets hot can definitely make a move towards a major.

Mole should have a hangover, imo.

X is my guy and I love to bet him but I need to wait a bit into this tournament.

Justin is an afterthought after the Masters. I think he is primed to win this as well this week, he will be right there. His short game will be HUGE this week.

More to come...
 
Well, I didn't even think it was in play today but the scoring prop hit. I don't feel bad about the Woodland or Cantlay investments. On to Pebble...should be much more wide open.
 
Pebble should be exciting!
I think behind Augusta National & Sawgrass it’s the most recognizable golf course to the masses (US courses and thanks to EA Sports)
I can’t wait to watch this Open.
 
Okay, some more fun this week...

The Cantlay win @ Memorial got me up for golf season (lol) so I'll trudge out a few more outrights.

There are some solid match ups but going to leave alone.

Sneaky pick -- Bernd Weisberger Top Austrian -250


My outrights:

Justin Thomas +2500
Xander +2500
Stenson +6000
Jason Day +3000
Martin Kaymer +10000

(one is much smaller than the others and was played awhile back)
 
Few additions as the week goes, perhaps.

I think this is wide-open but a Brooks-DJ Sunday duel again would be no surprise.

If Tiger can putt well, he is right there.

I think this is gonna be a doozy overall.
 
X, Stenson, Kaymer and Day all under par. Only JT is a problem so far. Rose was on my list too. Lotta golf left.
 
Good shape I’d say other than my JT flop but I think he has a good shot at making the weekend still. I think it will be wide open for anyone to win come the weekend
 
Lets put out a few for the weekend.... why not....


Koepka +765
DJ +2000
Louis +1200
Kuch +2500
 
I have huge respect for Justin Rose and he will be in the mix. He is simply one of the best and he has won one of these before. I do think the stellar putting will regress slightly.

Woodland WUD win this week with me having no futures on him. I looked at him briefly but wasn't about it. The 2nd round 65 is simply the best round of the week being in the afternoon wave.

Aaron Wise is a good player but he needs to lick his chops once in one of these -- pass

Love Rory but it feels like he could do something dumb one of the weekend days -- pass

Reavie and Chesson both are solid players. I do not trust either though if they get into a final round pairing with a big gun -- pass

Matt Wallace is sneaky good. He is becoming more and more of a fixture on leaderboards. I will be tracking him tomorrow...

Sergio having success is only surprising due to recent form. He is still a premier ball-striker.


Now, the picks....

Louis will be right there, he just has to watch the bogies. He is a factor all weekend.

Kuch is just sitting there idly. He had a bad double today but hopefully that is his big mistake for the week (as he noted). He is a vet that in all honesty is due and been there before. He can easily sneak up on Sunday.

I think DJ has a low round tomorrow. I watched a lot of him today and nothing was special but he knows how to play this place and I think he gets hot. He knows how to make moves and his 69 today was pretty damn good even without his best stuff.

BROOKS -- I think he wins it. I really do. He is hitting the ball great. Now, it is time to make some putts. He is simply putting himself in position to make a run and no one is more confident right now. I love his attitude and like in the prime-Tiger days he is simply plotting his way through a week. I think we see 4-6 under on Saturday which puts him right in the hunt on Sunday. He is the last player you want in front of you on Sunday...
 
Of course the live prices on Brooks and DJ are better now... Odd... I played as fast as I could to avoid getting worse numbers. Oh well...let's hope to muck things up today!
 
Eh, some more fun this week...

The match ups I played have lost their value...

Bubba MC I played...

Outrights:

Stenson +2500
Day +3500
Thomas +3500
Simpson
Scott +2500
Wallace +5000
Xander +2000
Kuchar +3000
DJ +1530


These are weighted differently.

I just added DJ, it is good value for him...


FRL

X +3000
Simpson +3000
Stenson +5000
Hoffman +7500

I played these capping the weather basically. If one of these guys can post a number early, they have a chance to keep it. Dead Heat rules apply.
 
Oh so close to a piece with Webb on FRL... he bogied the last two...

Scott bet is done...

My big matchup bet looks good...

Faded Tiger tomorrow...

I want to fade Bubba but not liking my options..


Value out there.... I do have Brooks at +1000/+405 as well

Deki +6600 added
 
Last edited:
Not buying Bubba at all...

Just max bet him at BOL Over 70.5 2nd Round...

GL tomorrow, Reno...
 
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