BAR 2017-2018 NBA Thread...

B.A.R.

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Staff member
Hello everyone. I know it is early but the season starts much earlier this year. Heck, camps open next week. This feels like such a quick turnaround, well, because it is. The game has changed and now scheduling has changed. They have eliminated so many of my favorite situational stuff or come close to it. With that being said, everything is about adjustments and I(we) will do so.

A lot of my betting last year was live plays/creating middles and trading a bit. I absolutely love it when I can put the time towards it. It is almost as satisfying as when you map out plays in the summer that win months later. Obviously I won't be able to post live bets etc but would love to discuss possible angles and whatnot before the games on evenings when I know I will be able to be active in the market. I hope that to be 2-3 evenings on average per week. Some may be less but anymore and I would burn out anyways. That is where having a supplement of situational plays helps. I'll also look to attack some player props in the middle of the season only(for the most part). As far as TT's, I will mostly look at good opportunities for 2nd halves this year.

As always, it is all about good discussion and sharing thoughts first and foremost to help each other. I think the NBA Forum made a nice comeback last year and would like to continue to see the growth return this year.

I'll start the thread by highlighting my initial schedule observations I went through a month ago for situational spots...

(there is still plenty to do on these--this is just a base to get the juices flowing a bit)

NOTES:

-Denver and Utah are obvious altitude plays
-I have many more trips circled that end at one venue or the other
-I have looked at most of the 'other side' of Utah/Denver plays so far and will note as we go
-Some games are shown at the end of the trip back home due to their start-time
-Obviously we the new schedule, road trips will have stops at home. That is our own due diligence to research
 
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Denver and Utah Situations:

Detroit 6 game road trip(legs 1-3 of 6 game trip)

Mar 13 @ Utah Jazz 9:00 PM
Mar 15 @ Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM
Mar 17 @ Portland Trail Blazers 10:00 PM


Houston 3 game road trip


Feb 25 @ Denver Nuggets 8:00 PM
Feb 26 @ Utah Jazz 9:00 PM
Feb 28 @ Los Angeles Clippers 10:30 PM


Toronto 6 game road trip

Oct 23 @ San Antonio Spurs 8:30 PM
Oct 25 @ Golden State Warriors 10:30 PM
Oct 27 @ Los Angeles Lakers 10:30 PM
Oct 30 @ Portland Trail Blazers 10:00 PM
Nov 1 @ Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM
Nov 3 @ Utah Jazz 9:00 PM

San Antonio in and out of the All-Star Break


Feb 10 @ Golden State Warriors 8:30 PM
Feb 12 @ Utah Jazz 9:00 PM
Feb 13 @ Denver Nuggets 10:30 PM
Feb 23 @ Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM
Feb 25 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3:30 PM
 
LA Clippers Road Heavy

Nov 7 @ San Antonio Spurs 8:30 PM
Nov 10 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 9:00 PM
Nov 11 @ New Orleans Pelicans 7:00 PM
Nov 13 Philadelphia 76ers 10:30 PM
Nov 17 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 7:30 PM
Nov 18 @ Charlotte Hornets 7:00 PM
Nov 20 @ New York Knicks 7:30 PM
Nov 22 @ Atlanta Hawks 7:30 PM
Nov 25 @ Sacramento Kings 10:00 PM


Dec 13 @ Orlando Magic 7:00 PM
Dec 15 @ Washington Wizards 7:00 PM
Dec 16 @ Miami Heat 8:00 PM
Dec 18 @ San Antonio Spurs 8:30 PM
Dec 20 Phoenix Suns 10:30 PM
Dec 22 @ Houston Rockets 8:00 PM
Dec 23 @ Memphis Grizzlies 8:00 PM


Feb 9 @ Detroit Pistons 7:00 PM
Feb 10 @ Philadelphia 76ers 7:00 PM
Feb 12 @ Brooklyn Nets 7:30 PM
Feb 14 @ Boston Celtics 8:00 PM
BREAK
Feb 22 @ Golden State Warriors 10:30 PM
Feb 23 @ Phoenix Suns 9:00 PM
Feb 27 @ Denver Nuggets 10:30 PM


Mar 20 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 8:00 PM
Mar 21 @ Milwaukee Bucks 8:00 PM
Mar 23 @ Indiana Pacers 7:00 PM
Mar 25 @ Toronto Raptors 6:00 PM
Mar 27 Milwaukee Bucks 10:30 PM
Mar 28 @ Phoenix Suns 10:00 PM
Mar 30 @ Portland Trail Blazers 10:30 PM
Apr 1 Indiana Pacers 3:30 PM
 
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Good luck this season brother.

The league is shook, will be a very interesting season.

Gonna sit down next week and find my spots as well.

No more gimme games unfortunately with all Silver's tweaks.
 
Thank you sir, looking forward to it. It is nothing but entertaining, this league, these days.

(to follow and bet -- not for the pure love of hoops).
 
Just watching tonight...

But to track and remember....

Jimmy Harden plays awful against the Warriors. I think total prop is at 45...those were obviously in the low to mid fifties at the end off last year....
 
Fun opening night, sans the Hayward injury. It felt good to have it back.

Surprise for me?

The Cavaliers were not bombing away from deep.

The Harden prop went under. He had to work for his 27 points pretty hard. I obviously had no cajones to bet that number in the first game of the season but I do expect it to be much tougher on his 'all' props. It will never help when he goes to the line that limited amount of times.

Sticking with my LIVE betting philosophy on totals...I was able to get the under in last night at 252 in the late game. Simply stated, the original number was 231. I set a goal early on of getting something at least 20 points off the original game total. It is all feel too and never fun in a close Warriors game where all heck can break loose. I honestly thought of middling at least half of the stake to start the 4th at 244 and did not, kinda waited it out luckily. As we see, the game landed on 243 after the last bucket was waved off.

Tonight, pure box-score recapping at 4 am after I get home.

Teams I will be most interested in tonight:

Denver
Detroit
Minnesota
Milwaukee

I can already tell ya for Thursday if you want to pick a side in OKC-NYK, take the 14.5 points right now. That number is ASININE.

Okay, enjoy the full opening night tonight. Should be a doooozy!
 
Ish vs Reggie...



AUBURN HILLS - Detroit Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy has a few more days to decide whether Reggie Jackson or Ish Smith will start at point guard for the season opener. He is preparing for both scenarios.

"They're both going to play with both units," Van Gundy said after Sunday's practice. "Even in practice today, we switched them from segment to segment so they're both playing with everybody. We haven't locked either one of them into one unit or the other."

Van Gundy said that while some players and fans get "really concerned" about who starts, the pair will play 48 minutes total.

"If it's 26 and 22 or 28 and 20, 24 and 24, I think the biggest split it might get to if one of them were having a great night would be 30 and 18," Van Gundy said.
 
GL Bar. Your take on Cavs is significant and I think it hurts them this year, at least early on. The Celtics were just completely thrown off mentally with the Hayward injury and it showed for the entire first half. Without that, I really think Cavs would’ve gotten exposed. Think there will be plenty of spots to fade them. Cycling their most playable floor spacers in Love and JR with negatives in Wade and Tristan will probably come and bite them until they change something
 
I didn't get to see much last night. I felt like I would have hit a few sides and lost a few...hence a good night to watch and see. The Bucks was a good spot that makes me kick myself a bit though.

The 'Stons won their opener. Tobias will have a very good year methinks. Stanley Johnson with a nice little 0-13 start. Looks like both PG's played solid.

Tonight,

I noted in discussion thread that the amount of points the Knicks were getting as of then (14.5) was ridiculous. I did not play it early and it is 12.5 as of this moment. I would still side with the Knicks here if I were to pick a side. I will wait and see though...

I'll definitely be involved in something totals-wise in the late game out at Staples weather beforehand or playing it LIVE.
 
Had to get a terrible pick out of the way, right away. I knew it was bad but I talked myself into it.

This was an odd game if you look at the boxscore in relative total moreso to the Clippers numbers...


LAC got off 107 FGA's but made just 42

LAL got off 91 but made just 37.

Only 19 fastbreak points total. I expected many more from the Lakers...more like double what they had...

Yeah, I am sticking with what I said in the in-game, these rims are tight. It has nothing to do with losing the bet but they have literally no give at all.

--------------------------------------------------

I was chatting with someone the other day about possible players to look at for props and I mentioned Blake early in the year and will continue to monitor. And dayum, if DeAndre is gonna make FT's that changes everything.
 
Quick thoughts...

-Tobias Harris gonna have a real big year, He looks phenomenal early.

-The Knicks are really bad

-The Thunder had the type of game tonight I expect to see many times with this group of 3 guys together. Just not pretty. Hopefully for them they gel but I stand by that Melo trade being a negative

-Nikola is dirty

-Golden State will go through the motions at times this year

-Phoenix is really really bad

-Blake props

-Greek might be early front-runner for MVP out of the gate 5 days in (lol).

-Here is an example of a WTF moment in betting but is highly probable in today's league...

58-44 Clippers at halftime.

I take the under 113 for 2h for the explicit reason of creating a middle in live betting with a goal of 7+ points. I actually get a middle of 13 points and go for it. This half started 6-0 Clippers at the 7:59 mark. Yes, four minutes in and 6 total points. The rest of the half would go 66-44 in an absolute blowout. It gets worse...the Clippers put up 12 points in the last 2:28 of the game. Somehow between getting a rebound with 53 seconds left on the defensive end and the 28 second mark the Clippers scored 6 points without the aid of a 3 pt shot or play. To top it off, a foul was committed with 3 seconds left for FT's as well.

So, somehow lost that but finding that value will be very good to us more times than not throughout the year.


-Jimmy Harden still shoots way too many threes.

-Sacto is very bad as well. Brewers mentioned their pace, keep an eye there.


Alright, we are well underway now...let the marathon continue... :cheers3:
 
Weird start to the year...

Just some odd games...

Definitely some gem prop bets out there with some bad numbers...if you have the time to do the work you can find a few a week early on...

Really seems like there are a lot of injuries as well...even more than usual (and the real/fake/etc have gotten much bigger the last several years)...

It feels good to have it back though...

By the way, if you are in town, plenty of good seats at the Hot n Ready Arena to see the Stons (and Wings). They were letting people move from 2nd deck down to first last night before the game even started. What a disaster that place is for attendance so far unless it is a concert.
 
Just remember capping 101...

Don't be betting on teams with a bunch of new players or meshing stars...

OKC-Hou are hit and miss and both very over valued right now. Memphis obviously was a great spot last night but in general. It does help Hou short-term not having CP3.

On another note... the Bulls are awful...obviously. They are one of a few teams where the game totals are just laughable to begin with. It literally makes ZERO sense why that game was 203.5 last night. An up and down OKC team vs a Bulls team that couldn't score on an AAU team. Late push got this one to 170 points total...

Just from last night some notable total differences on unders...

33.5 points
19 points
25 points
24 points
 
Bulls payroll 65 million. Obviously must be terrible. This is kind of terrible spot for GS with Clipps the next day and then Spurs
 
How 'bout dem Pistons?

If this keeps up I might have to see if I can catch a game at the new arena this season when I'm in the area.
 
How 'bout dem Pistons?

If this keeps up I might have to see if I can catch a game at the new arena this season when I'm in the area.
Yeah imma being going down in December for both teams it looks like.
 
Remember for the next few nights....Utah/Denver excursion to end the trip...



Toronto 6 game road trip

Oct 23 @ San Antonio Spurs 8:30 PM
Oct 25 @ Golden State Warriors 10:30 PM
Oct 27 @ Los Angeles Lakers 10:30 PM
Oct 30 @ Portland Trail Blazers 10:00 PM
Nov 1 @ Denver Nuggets 9:00 PM
Nov 3 @ Utah Jazz 9:00 PM



The Nuggets are coming home after a 4 game trip...

Utah will be on 4th home game in a row...all with a day break in between...

We will look at Utah as a possible play, as well as monitor the game as it goes...
 
Okay, looks like the opener is Utah -2.

I'll take it and re-evaluate at halftime as well for perhaps more action


I'll be on it once it is available to me.

I was expecting something more like 3.5-4 to be honest and am just fine with those numbers as well.
 
Utah -1.5 -110 2 units
Toronto dominated the shooting in 1st half yet Utah led by 1...I almost added for 2h but glad I did not..

The Raptors have not gotten tired at all, it seems. They still may but are taking it to them this qtr.

I am hoping for a Utah run here and I will most likely buy off the game if afforded the opportunity.
 
Well, down to the last 6 minutes with hopefully a run here to get off this before live betting shuts off...

Raps scored 36 in 3rd hitting 7 three's... what can you do...Jazz could never get the lead in that qtr...came close a few times...
 
The Utah Jazz...can't bet 'em, can't fade 'em. I am so completely done with that team.
 
Might have to just concentrate on the Denver leg of these spots, lol.

Credit where due to the Rapturds. They looked fresh as can be.

Utah already back on the 'do not bet' list.

Utah 3 point defense seems to have went missing at the most inopportune time.
 
One thing the Raps recent injuries has revealed is that Pascal Siakam has some talent.
 


I will look at each and every angle to play it first, though.

Ideally, it will be ats at not to bad of a number.

Definitely a game to assess again at halftime as well.

Once Miami gets down, they are going to be thinking of home. Their bodies are already gonna be off with the time difference and odd tip time after a gritty game at Utah.
 
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