August Bases

YTD [1063-940 +5.79u] (15-9 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [10-8 +1.71] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -139
  • 954 Miami Marlins +1½ -140
  • 954 Miami Marlins +114
  • 956 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -160
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 -110
  • 957 Arizona Diamondbacks +113
  • 959 Atlanta Braves +1½ -200
  • 959 Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Under 8½ -110
  • 962 St. Louis Cardinals* -175
  • 961 Colorado Rockies/St. Louis Cardinals Under 9 -110
  • 968 Minnesota Twins -1½ -145
  • 968 Minnesota Twins -310
  • 971 Texas Rangers +115
  • 975 New York Yankees/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9½ +100
  • 978 San Diego Padres +100
  • 977 Boston Red Sox/San Diego Padres Under 9 -105
  • 979 San Francisco Giants +1½ -155
  • 979 San Francisco Giants +131
  • 979 San Francisco Giants/Oakland Athletics Under 8½ -110
randoms...
View attachment 42338
View attachment 42335

el2ww9yee8i31.jpg
m7wrqt4mg7i31.jpg
 
Crazy angle...

Teams that lost as -280 or more favorites and come back to play same team as -200 or more ar 27-17 BUT that results in +23.8% ROI by fading them! 31.2% on RL.

Twinks are in that boat today :cowboy:

View attachment 42350
 
YTD [1075-949 +6.19u] (15-9 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-9-1 +0.4] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 901 Philadelphia Phillies -187
  • 901 Philadelphia Phillies/Miami Marlins Under 8 -105
  • 904 New York Mets -1½ +185
  • 904 New York Mets -110
  • 903 Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Under 8½ -105
  • 907 Arizona Diamondbacks/Milwaukee Brewers Under 9½ -115
  • 911 Washington Nationals -117
  • 916 Cleveland Indians -318 (2u)
  • 917 Texas Rangers +109
  • 917 Texas Rangers/Chicago White Sox Under 9 +100
  • 920 Houston Astros -200
  • 926 Oakland Athletics -1½ +130
  • 930 Los Angeles Dodgers -160
  • 929 New York Yankees/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8½ -105
randoms
LAD 38-8 @home vs righties / 12-0 in day games vs RHP @homeView attachment 42378
View attachment 42382
View attachment 42383
View attachment 42384
View attachment 42387
 
Last edited:
I ran across a theory on lines today and thought it was pretty strong. When bookies want you to bet a certain way, they move the odds the other way...no secret. This theory says you take teams when playing same opponent and the line goes up over 20 cents, they want you to play the other side obviously. If its a dog it would drop from say +180 to +150 or so while the favorite would rise from -150 to -180, therefore steering you to the other side. Over the last 8 years this has won 58.6% over 535u and 7% ROI with only 1 losing season. Clipping 60.5% this year with over 600 plays.
View attachment 42395

With dogs, it's when the line drops..like ROX were +180 yesterday and only +145. Of course you need to factor in starters as that can have a huge effect, but there was no starter today or yesterday in COL game that merits that big a move. The system wins big irregardless of starters but you could certainly factor some games out. I always say the SDQL can lead you to the game(s) but not necessarily the bets.

Anyways, I just came across this today and will be monitoring it closely, but the history has been great. Any worm can turn, but this makes a lot of sense if you consider the book trying to steer you to a loser.

Edit: If I wasn't clear you want to play the side the lays bigger chalk when a fav or receives less when a dog :cool:

Also I played all the games that qualified and I wasn't already on or against and they are the 5 in my previous post.

Record this year and all todays indicated sides
View attachment 42402
 
Last edited:
Model went 3-0 on value yesterday and it has become quite apparent them are the plays that work, returnin over 13% ROI on the year while overall, all the plays still profit but only 1.6% ROI

Value today to TEX and TB

View attachment 42403
 
BenchCoach said:
Are you using closing lines or openers from the previous day when evaluating the 20 point line move?
Click to expand...

For back testing I've used SDQL. It's inconclusive exactly where there lines come from of how often they are updated. I would guess the historical lines are close to closing lines, but for my purpose, I use current line at time I run query. For instance COL qualified earlier but not now as current line has pushed out to +155. I don't sweat the lines, figuring some give and take will equal out in the end. At least that's my perceived conclusion. lol
 
Last edited:
Oh and one other this, on the line move if a different team is favored...no action. Cant cross zero. Also even in series game one it applies and long as the last time they played was at same site and the line moved

Here's last 8 years broken down by series game number. Works in game 1 or game 5 in playoffs and even works for September

View attachment 42408
 
YTD [1082-961 +1.08u] (15-10 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-12 -5.11] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 954 Philadelphia Phillies -124
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds -152
  • 960 San Francisco Giants*-105
  • 961 Los Angeles Dodgers -142
  • 963 Oakland Athletics -155
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -105
  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +155
  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks/San Francisco Giants Under 9 -110
  • 961 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Under 9 -110
  • 963 Oakland Athletics -1½ +100
 
Of course I jumped onboard at a bad time yesterday with the moving line angle. However, I think the best way to use this is with the late to closing lines. At the end of the day the angle only went 2-3 with a +270 winner in KC and finished close to even. I played 5 games earlier and went 1-4. So I guess you need to wait for the lines to settle in. That's what the historical data is based off anyhoo.

Here's record since 2012 and it shows last 4 days which have went only 10-11.

View attachment 42425

Not ready to give up on it yet and no plays today. Actually there could be if the team had their most recent series with today's opponent at the same site and the line difference applied.

This same scenario works with totals as well. If the total moves by at least 1 run, you play it in other direction.
Here's the unders record sice 2012 showing last 4 days which unders cashed 6 or 8
View attachment 42426

Here's the record for over in same time frame with last 4 days showing at 3-3-1
The record for the overs shows the lowest ROI over the 8 year test, but for the last 2 years it's at +11.8% ROI
View attachment 42427

Once again with totals it today's total is at least 1 run higher than last game vs same opponent at same site, then you bet it over.

Same with the under but when today's today is at least 1 run lower, bet the under.

8 year record assumes all totals are -110 and that's not always the case, but it is what it is.

Betting ML - 3077-2168 58.7% +535.2u 6.9% ROI
Betting ML - 3007-2221 57.5% +351.8u 5.0% ROI
Betting Over - 1150-950-75 54.8% +123.3u 9.9% ROI
Betting Under - 1095-918-94 57.5% +216.9u 5.2% ROI
Total for 8 years playing them all +1227.2u or an average 153.4u per year

That's like a pipe dream...

View attachment 42428
 
talking to myself

Braves/Rox U13.5 - ATL has been banking on their pitching that has been absolutely lights out recently. Almost all of their pitchers are ground balls pitchers that will help make the thin air negligible for the Over Under. Unless the braves score 9+ runs this should stay well under. Thing is Rockies gassed out their bully in last night, so even if Melville gets slammed he may have to stay in longer than normal, which just may up the score. Also Julio’s last time in Denver he gave up 6 runs in 5 innings. So I want to play the under, but there's arguments both way. Still with 13.5 it's either under or stand aside.

Rox are 4-11 this year as a home dog vs teams over 55% 5-10 on RL. link

ATL is on a 8 game winning streak. They are 16-5 as an away favorite vs teams with a losing record link


PIT has went over the total 24-9(14-4 on road) this year vs LHP and are only 13-20 RL and 12-22 ML

team = Pirates and o:STL and season = 2019
SU:12-22 (-1.32, 35.3%) avg line: 129.8 / -141.3 on / against: -$778 / +$649 ROI: -22.0% / +13.3%
RL:13-20 (-0.47, 39.4%) avg line: -122.1 / 101.6 on / against: -$1,080 / +$750 ROI: -24.6% / +19.1%
OU:24-9-0 (1.05, 72.7%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: +$1,422 / -$1,690 ROI: +38.8% / -47.0%
 
Oh and PIT on Monday this year
3-11 ML, 4-10 RL and 12-1-1 on total
team = Pirates and day = Monday and season = 2019
SU:3-11 (-3.00, 21.4%) avg line: 130.2 / -142.2 on / against: -$736 / +$671 ROI: -50.7% / +32.9%
RL:4-10 (-1.93, 28.6%) avg line: -124.3 / 104.7 on / against: -$890 / +$735 ROI: -48.2% / +45.5%
OU:12-1-1 (4.32, 92.3%) avg total: 9.2 over / under: +$1,080 / -$1,215 ROI: +69.2% / -79.9%
 
I'm switching off the MIA under I played earlier today, going with the over

MIA @home vs RHP 29-13-5 on total this year
team = Marlins and NGT and season = 2019 and H
SU:18-29 (-1.28, 38.3%) avg line: 145.8 / -158.6 on / against: -$463 / +$276 ROI: -9.7% / +3.7%
RL:21-26 (-0.10, 44.7%) avg line: -110.4 / -108.8 on / against: -$720 / +$265 ROI: -12.5% / +4.7%
OU:29-13-5 (2.07, 69.0%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: +$1,498 / -$1,832 ROI: +28.8% / -35.7%
 
add this for 2 units to reverse earlier play on under
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds/Miami Marlins Over 7½ +100
 
YTD [1091-965 +5.47u] (15-10 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-4 +4.39] (0-1 on 2u plays)
Had a good night despite clicking in SF ML by mistake, should have been 10-3 :riphair:
  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 -103
  • 902 Philadelphia Phillies -140
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds -141
  • 906 New York Mets -105
  • 905 Chicago Cubs/New York Mets Under 8½ -110
  • 907 St. Louis Cardinals +135
  • 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -178
  • 913 Cleveland Indians -1½ +115
  • 913 Cleveland Indians -137
  • 916 Chicago White Sox +107
  • 915 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Under 9 -105
  • 919 Oakland Athletics -168
  • 921 Texas Rangers/Los Angeles Angels Under 8½ -110
  • 923 New York Yankees -1½ -110
  • 923 New York Yankees -173
  • 925 Baltimore Orioles +300
randoms....
YANKS on roadView attachment 42456
YANKS on road vs leftiesView attachment 42455
YANKS vs leftiesView attachment 42457
CHISOX at home at nightView attachment 42458
 
musing..

  • Braves went cold yesterday as they finish up a snowed out game from April and then head back to Toronto today. I'm going to stay away from the Braves for a minute until I see how their travel fatigue plays out. Too bad I didn't have the sac to roll with Rox yesterday..I had them capped but passed.
  • Last 10 games, the Astros have decided every game in the F5. With JV on the bump vs recently inconsistent Morton, I have a good feeling the Astros are going to win today. Chalk has pushed out quick and it wont come cheap.
  • I'm also considering adding OAK RL while riding Fiers 3-0 record and 3.07 ERA over L7 starts. If you remove the Astros game, it would be 2.37 ERA. Meanwhile, Montgomery has been highly inconsistent with a 4.46 ERA although he only gave up 1 run total in his 2 recent wins.
  • I took SL but they're only 6-18 on the road vs teams over 500View attachment 42463
  • MIA 30-13 over total in night games at home this yearView attachment 42464
  • Tigs are easy fade material vs righties at home bringing back 27% ROI on both ML & RLView attachment 42466
 
Lets see how this chasing the line goes today.
Quick recap:
If the line has u paying over 20 cents extra juice...lay it
If the line has you getting over 20 cents less on a dog...take it
If today's total is at least 1 run higher..bet it over
If today's total is at least 1 run lower...bet the under
(All comparisons are to last game and it has to be vs same team, same home and same favorite.


2 sides: LAD & OAK
View attachment 42473

1 under: FISH
View attachment 42474

1 over: PHI
View attachment 42475
 
adds
  • 928 Toronto Blue Jays +176
  • 930 Colorado Rockies +123
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds/Miami Marlins Under 7 +100
1508184691517.jpg
 
here's another interesting angle, there are so many

Fade a road team following a game when they had a 5 or more game win streak broken up, like the braves did yesterday, maybe some lingering letdown?

It has been profitable either way, but the returns are higher on the RL

View attachment 42478
 
adding 2 more
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays +184
  • 928 Toronto Blue Jays +1½ +108
Already liked Jays and had played earlier before the starter even announced. Also good chance I'll lose with rays but they are a very solid option catching this kinda chalk, and Verlander has not been profitable at all over the last 2 years...although he had had won 5 straight before losing last 3 plus TB did beat him last time they faced albeit last year

I'm thinking Charlie gives his best effort vs his old team
View attachment 42479
 
YTD [1105-972 +13.66u] (15-10 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-7 +8.19] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 951 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +130
  • 951 St. Louis Cardinals -126
  • 951 St. Louis Cardinals/Milwaukee Brewers Under 8½ -110 (2u)
  • 953 Pittsburgh Pirates/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 +105
  • 954 Philadelphia Phillies -134
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds -141
  • 955 Cincinnati Reds/Miami Marlins Over 8½ +105
  • 961 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 961 New York Yankees -220
  • 963 Cleveland Indians -180 (2u)
  • 965 Minnesota Twins -1½ -120
  • 965 Minnesota Twins -183
  • 965 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Over 10½ +100
  • 973 Baltimore Orioles/Washington Nationals Under 9 -115
  • 977 Boston Red Sox -172
  • 977 Boston Red Sox/Colorado Rockies Over 14 +100
Randoms

 
Here's a pretty stout angle that has produced near 7% ROI over the last 7 years and has won the last 21 straight!

Simply play a 200 or more favorite when opposing starter is coming off a loss.

View attachment 42496
 
Lots of stuff to digest, especially will all the girls looking at me (As I try to study...) But looks like a nice day yesterday for ya. GL today, as I try and figure out all your stats and shit.
 
adds
  • 967 Tampa Bay Rays +200
  • 976 Toronto Blue Jays +139
  • 975 Atlanta Braves/Toronto Blue Jays Under 10 -112
 
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