ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 1

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
As you know, I've put a lot of hard work in this summer to try and make some money in the fall. Last year was my first full season, and I was around even until overbetting in the bowls and losing my ass.

I'll start this thread each week by posting the lines my power ratings produced, so you can get an idea of what I'll be looking at.

Buffalo (+28) at Rutgers
Miami OH (+1.5) at Ball State
Tulsa (-2) at UL Monroe
Kent State (+4.5) at Iowa State
UNLV (-6.5) at Utah State
LSU (-14.5) at Mississippi State
Utah (+11) at Oregon State
Navy (-15) at Temple
Washington (-0.5) at Syracuse
Colorado State (-2.5) vs. Colorado
UAB (+19.5) at Michigan State
Florida International (+37.5) at Penn State
Arkansas State (+34.5) at Texas
East Carolina (+28) at Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (+19.5) at West Virginia
Middle Tennessee (+3) at Florida Atlantic
Central Michigan (+6) at Kansas
Marshall (+19) at Miami
UL Lafayette (+31) at South Carolina
Connecticut (-5) at Duke
Virginia (-3.5) at Wyoming
UCLA (-13.5) at Stanford
Georgia Tech (+1) at Notre Dame
Wake Forest (+4.5) at Boston College
Nevada (+19.5) at Nebraska
Ole Miss (+1.5) at Memphis
Washington State (+15) at Wisconsin
Illinois (+6) vs. Missouri
Iowa (-13.5) vs. Northern Illinois
Houston (+16.5) at Oregon
Arizona (+4) at BYU
Central Florida (+8) at NC State
Eastern Michigan (+19) at Pittsburgh
Army (+4.5) vs. Akron
Baylor (+18.5) at TCU
Oklahoma State (+8) at Georgia
Troy (+19) at Arkansas
North Texas (+40) at Oklahoma
Purdue (-6.5) at Toledo
Kansas State (+9.5) at Auburn
Tennessee (+5.5) at California
Bowling Green (+7.5) at Minnesota
San Jose State (+10.5) at Arizona State
New Mexico (-1.5) at UTEP
Idaho (+42.5) at USC
Texas Tech (-6.5) at SMU
Florida State (-3) at Clemson
 
Official plays in bold

Florida State -2
Syracuse +4
Troy +26

Took Florida State when I got the chance last week, as I expected the line to move a little bit and wanted to catch a good number. I'm a big fan of the upgrades on the coaching staff, which I think will ultimately be the difference between last year's FSU team and this year's FSU team. Fisher's offenses at LSU averaged 28 PPG or more in 5 of the his 6 years there, showing he is a major upgrade over Bowden at OC. I love backing a Mickey Andrews defense when he has time to prepare, and his D was excellent in the last two openers against Miami. Clemson's offense has weaknesses everywhere on offense other than RB, and should be one-dimensional in this game with a new QB and a weak WR corps. FSU's offense hasn't been great, but has some experience everywhere and has the ability to shine with a far better OC. I think the Noles avenge two consecutive losses to Clemson as they clearly have the better team. Giving the under a look in this one as well.

Syracuse really isn't that good, but was great ATS at home last year going 5-1. They get a nationally televised Friday night home game in the season opener, facing a UW team who's laying points despite having some serious holes and is flying across the country for this game. With the loss of Russo and Shackelford at WR, the Huskies don't have much of a chance to expose Syracuse's weakness at CB. Syracuse's run D was pathetic last year, but they bring back the whole OL and two safeties who were near the top in tackles last year; McClain is excellent at DE as well. Andrew Robinson has a grasp of the offense and should be more of a threat in the passing game than Patterson was, and returns all his WRs - Taj Smith is back after having 227 yards and 3 TDs before getting injured 4 games into the season. They lose Carter, but Brinkley is a capable back. I like how this Cuse team played at home last year and I think considering the circumstances, they are a great play at +4. This team played well to start last year and I don't see any reason to believe they won't improve in Robinson's 3rd year.

We all saw how Troy played at Florida State and Georgia Tech last year, hanging tough and covering both times. They improved as the season went on, ending on a high note by thrashing Rice in the bowl game. All their weapons are back on offense, a spread attack which should be interesting for Arkansas. The Trojans return 8 guys on defense, and won't be as much of a liability against an SEC team as one might think. The Hogs have had an offseason full of turmoil, and their downfall appears inevitable after a great run last year. They've gotta replace 3 guys on the OL, bring in an OC who was a quality-control coach in the NFL (huh?), and lose their best players at each level on D. DT Marcus Richardson may also be out, which would be a big loss for the DL. I think Troy could expose their CBs, which I'm not impressed with just yet. This should be closer than expected and the line is certainly moving in the right direction.
 
Also looking at:

Miami OH +6
LSU -17
Utah +6.5
Connecticut -5.5
Virginia/Wyoming u40
Georgia Tech/Notre Dame u43.5
Wake Forest +6.5
Oklahoma State +7
Colorado State +2.5
Bowling Green +16.5
Cal -5.5
South Carolina -29.5
Florida State/Clemson u43.5
 
As far as your leans go I already have the FSU under and really like the GT-ND under. I just cannot se either team exploding offensively even though ND's defense is pretty bad.

First real mention of Syracuse with reasoning on the forums. Interesting take. I look forward to seeing what they can do. Gotta love under the radar ATS teams.

FSU-love it.

Troy-hoping for a little better line closer to gametime.
 
confused why your leaning at Utah st-- i'd love to hear your reasoning, as I was considering UNLV a strong play
 
California -5.5

I don't think I'm gonna get a better line on this one. As you all know, Tennessee hammered the Bears last year, setting this up as a major revenge situation. To make matters worse, the Vols have some serious holes that could kill them here. They return only 1 starter in the secondary, and must replace both CBs; the projected starters are either JUCO transfers or true freshman. This is a serious issue against the Cal WR corps, which is arguably the best in the country. The DL is a major concern for me as well, as the Vols lose an All-SEC DT in Turk McBride and a 1st round draft pick in Justin Harrell. While Mitchell and Reynolds are both back at DE, note they are seniors who hardly even saw the field before last year. Cal's OL was excellent last year, only allowing 13 sacks; they should have no problem controlling the LOS and giving Longshore and the WRs time to make some big plays in the passing game. While I am a big fan of Erik Ainge and a healthy Arian Foster, I am very concerned with the WRs, who are apparently struggling in practice. The OL also loses an All-American in Arron Sears at LT. Having Tedford on your sidelines is always an advantage, and I have a tough time seeing him get outcoached by Fulmer and Co. once again. This is a BIG game for the program and the Pac 10, who both got a little embarrassed by the thrashing in Knoxville last year. I'm anticipating a blowout, and I think the Tennessee WRs and secondary would have to really progress in the next few weeks of practice to help the Vols keep this one close.
 
Linde, interesting writeups and picks. The only one I really have a problem with is Cuse but you got a home dog there vs. a team traveling across the country. I like Troy and I am on FSU. The Cal play, I agree with but I am staying away from this game. Maybe I was a yr to early on the Bears, I thought they could get it done last yr.
 
nevermind. I read that a few weeks ago when you put it up but had a cuse question for another thread but cannot remember who it is...:hang:
 
Bowling Green +16

Whoever had this offer out on Matchbook really wasn't paying much attention to the line. I got it at -102 when the line is +14.5 at Pinnacle and +15 at 5Dimes.

This is the largest difference between my PR line and the actual line of any Week 1 game, as I have this at BGSU +7.5. Minnesota was a covering machine against non-conference patsies under Mason, but things are a little different this time around with a new HC and new coordinators. Brewster has never even been a coordinator, and is now making his debut as a coach at the collegiate level, where he hasn't coached since 2001. His OC will be implementing a spread attack which they don't have the personnel for, with hardly no experience at QB or WR. Their defense was horrendous last year, and recently lost one of their best players in CB Dominic Jones, who was also a threat in ST. While Bowling Green did lose 8 games last year, they started out the season 4-3 and actually played decent at Ohio State as 36-point dogs. They have a respectable 13-12 road record under Brandon, and also played well at Oklahoma as 32-point dogs back in 2004. They return everyone in the running game, along with their top WR, and 3 OL; it appears they will probably start Sheehan at QB in hopes of running a more pass-oriented offense. They return 8 starters on defense, including 6 of their top 7 tacklers, and everyone in a secondary that ranked 22nd in pass D. This is simply a situation where I think the line is way off base, mostly due to Minnesota crushing their non-conference opponents in the past and it being a Big 10/MAC matchup.
 
Final leans:

Miami OH +6
LSU/Mississippi State Under
Oregon State -7
Nebraska -19
Kansas State/Auburn Under 45.5

That KSU/Auburn Under continues to rise, so I will wait until it stops. I would really love to see that get up to 47 or so, considering I was planning on playing it at 44.5 a few weeks ago.
 
lindetrain said:
As you know, I've put a lot of hard work in this summer to try and make some money in the fall. Last year was my first full season, and I was around even until overbetting in the bowls and losing my ass.

I'll start this thread each week by posting the lines my power ratings produced, so you can get an idea of what I'll be looking at.

Buffalo (+28) at Rutgers
Miami OH (+1.5) at Ball State
Tulsa (-2) at UL Monroe
Kent State (+4.5) at Iowa State
UNLV (-6.5) at Utah State
LSU (-14.5) at Mississippi State
Utah (+11) at Oregon State
Navy (-15) at Temple
Washington (-0.5) at Syracuse
Colorado State (-2.5) vs. Colorado
UAB (+19.5) at Michigan State
Florida International (+37.5) at Penn State
Arkansas State (+34.5) at Texas
East Carolina (+28) at Virginia Tech
Western Michigan (+19.5) at West Virginia
Middle Tennessee (+3) at Florida Atlantic
Central Michigan (+6) at Kansas
Marshall (+19) at Miami
UL Lafayette (+31) at South Carolina
Connecticut (-5) at Duke
Virginia (-3.5) at Wyoming
UCLA (-13.5) at Stanford
Georgia Tech (+1) at Notre Dame
Wake Forest (+4.5) at Boston College
Nevada (+19.5) at Nebraska
Ole Miss (+1.5) at Memphis
Washington State (+15) at Wisconsin
Illinois (+6) vs. Missouri
Iowa (-13.5) vs. Northern Illinois
Houston (+16.5) at Oregon
Arizona (+4) at BYU
Central Florida (+8) at NC State
Eastern Michigan (+19) at Pittsburgh
Army (+4.5) vs. Akron
Baylor (+18.5) at TCU
Oklahoma State (+8) at Georgia
Troy (+19) at Arkansas
North Texas (+40) at Oklahoma
Purdue (-6.5) at Toledo
Kansas State (+9.5) at Auburn
Tennessee (+5.5) at California
Bowling Green (+7.5) at Minnesota
San Jose State (+10.5) at Arizona State
New Mexico (-1.5) at UTEP
Idaho (+42.5) at USC
Texas Tech (-6.5) at SMU
Florida State (-3) at Clemson
Click to expand...

Just curious if I wanted to do my own, how do you go about formulating the power rankings and then how do you use that to come up with a predicted line?
 
lindetrain said:
California -5.5

I don't think I'm gonna get a better line on this one. As you all know, Tennessee hammered the Bears last year, setting this up as a major revenge situation. To make matters worse, the Vols have some serious holes that could kill them here. They return only 1 starter in the secondary, and must replace both CBs; the projected starters are either JUCO transfers or true freshman. This is a serious issue against the Cal WR corps, which is arguably the best in the country. The DL is a major concern for me as well, as the Vols lose an All-SEC DT in Turk McBride and a 1st round draft pick in Justin Harrell. While Mitchell and Reynolds are both back at DE, note they are seniors who hardly even saw the field before last year. Cal's OL was excellent last year, only allowing 13 sacks; they should have no problem controlling the LOS and giving Longshore and the WRs time to make some big plays in the passing game. While I am a big fan of Erik Ainge and a healthy Arian Foster, I am very concerned with the WRs, who are apparently struggling in practice. The OL also loses an All-American in Arron Sears at LT. Having Tedford on your sidelines is always an advantage, and I have a tough time seeing him get outcoached by Fulmer and Co. once again. This is a BIG game for the program and the Pac 10, who both got a little embarrassed by the thrashing in Knoxville last year. I'm anticipating a blowout, and I think the Tennessee WRs and secondary would have to really progress in the next few weeks of practice to help the Vols keep this one close.
Click to expand...

The secondary has been playing really well in fall practice, granted that's against UT's wideouts and not Cal's but they have been a positive so far. There will be no JUCO transfers starting, it will be Hefney (Preseason 1st Team All SEC), Jarrod Parish (Not incredibly athletic, but heady senior who is in the right place at right time), Marsalous Johnson (Sophomore who played a lot last year after he returned from suspension), and either Antonio Gaines (Senior, who has played a little bit the last two years) or Eric Berry (He has been whole talk of camp, secondary coach says he is the best freshmen he has coached in his 34 years of coaching, Fulmer stated he has the most ready freshmen he has seen, Rivals number 3 player in the country). Not an unbelivable group, but they shouldn't get absolutely lit up by Longshore. The receivers on the other hand have not produced as hoped, UT will be playing guys that are going to be in the right place at the right time, not as explosive as usual UT receivers. Either way, maybe I'm being a homer, but I just don't see how Cal blows UT out. They might win and they might cover, but it's not going to be a blow out. The most Cal wins by, imo, is 14. I'm staying from the line because I really don't have feeling either way. I actually like the Over 52 more than anything. Cal's defense lost their three best players (Mebane, Bishop, and Hughes) from last years defense which finsihed 8th in the Pac-10 in total defense. I think UT pounds the ball right at Cal and look for the offensive line to improve mightly this year, which opens up the passing game for Ainge. As you stated only one returning starter for UT in the secondary facing one of the better WR units in the country. Forsett gets a chance to avenge an awful game from last year 5 carries for 1 yard. I see a game that's a complete toss up, so I might be on UT ML for 2:1 juice, but I look for the score to be around 31-27 whoever wins.
 
orange&white said:
Just curious if I wanted to do my own, how do you go about formulating the power rankings and then how do you use that to come up with a predicted line?
Click to expand...

There are literally hundreds of power rankings and spread predictors...doing your own would probably prove daunting. Research one of the many out there or average several of the ones you like the best. Here is a great site for spreads through power rankings:

http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

He has tracked their success over many years and you can research the methods the more common power rankers use.

GL....sorry for the hijack
 
3wiggler said:
There are literally hundreds of power rankings and spread predictors...doing your own would probably prove daunting. Research one of the many out there or average several of the ones you like the best. Here is a great site for spreads through power rankings:

http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

He has tracked their success over many years and you can research the methods the more common power rankers use.

GL....sorry for the hijack
Click to expand...

Appreciate it.
 
Nebraska -19.5

I really liked this game from the start, and gave it a hard look today once I saw the line start to rise on Pinnacle. Then I discovered it was rising due to Nevada LB star Ezra Butler getting suspended, and I went ahead and grabbed it at -116 juice on Matchbook.

Afer last season, I'm convinced Bill Callahan is one of those coaches who loves to run it up on his weak competition. They won 3 of their non-conference games by scores of 49-10, 56-7, and 56-0, covering the two lined games. Now they host Nevada in the opener with very high expectations for the season, and I don't anticipate Callahan taking his foot off the pedal; he will certainly want to impress everyone when he gets the chance. There is experience all over the place on offense and Keller should have a solid debut against a Nevada defense who will be hurting without Butler; this defense got torched by Washington State and Arizona State early on the last two seasons, giving up 50+ each time. The Wolf Pack have to break in new guys at QB, RB, and both tackles; they also lose their top WR in Spencer. This should be a long day for Nevada as I fully expect Nebraska to try and run this one up.
 
I'm going to be riding a few of you guys in the early season until I can get into my groove. Thanks again for all the insight you've provided this summer.
 
As I've mentioned before, I'm going to splash around a little bit on I-AA ball this year...if it goes bad, I'll drop it and won't bother with it again.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff -1 (0.5 units)
Portland State -1 (0.5 units)

Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost this meeting 10-0 in the opener last year, but went on to finish 8-4 and had one of the SWAC's best offenses. They return their QB, who threw for 19 TDs and 7 INTs, along with a RB who rushed for 1104 yards and 14 TDs; their top WR, who had 867 yards and 11 TDs, is also back. Mississippi Valley State has been very mediocre the last couple years and must replace their QB and All-SWAC WR. I think this is a situation where the better team avenges last year's loss, as they had a great year after their 1-3 start.

Jerry Glanville takes over at Portland State, which is certainly an upgrade and brings some excitement to the program. He inherits a team that won 7 games last year, and even won at New Mexico. They have Colorado transfer Brian White coming in at QB, along with New Mexico State transfer Mu'Ammar Ali at RB, who ran for 589 yards and 3 TDs despite missing 5 games. The D only brings back 4 guys, but should be fine as Glanville was the DC at Hawaii. McNeese State finished 7-5 last year and does return 17 starters, but it's evident their talent level is a step below Portland State's, as they were crushed by another Big Sky team in Montana 31-6 in last year's playoffs. They went 2-4 in non-conference play (with one win over West Virginia Tech) and I see no reason to believe they can hang here.
 
thanks for the d1aa look. might try this myself at 1/20 of anormal unit. lind, what is your major source for info on these games?

bol, hope all your hard work this offseason translates to money for you
 
Nice add on Nebraska.

I hate the MAC so I haven't looked into the BG game but I think Minny will be horrid this year.

GL this weekend playa
 
vegaskyle said:
thanks for the d1aa look. might try this myself at 1/20 of anormal unit. lind, what is your major source for info on these games?

bol, hope all your hard work this offseason translates to money for you
Click to expand...

I bought Phil Steele's Pac 10 regional magazine, which has a preview on all the I-AA teams...
 
LT - I am still leanin GW at +32.5. Had Pine Bluff and McNeese on the short list but both are off now. Any thoughts on GWebb as the big dog? Have a few initial thoughts in Bull's thread and also higher up in mine when I first posted it as a strong lean a few weeks ago. Just tryin to make sure I am not missin something as we hit the home stretch, thanks.
 
It does not look like I'll be adding any of my remaining leans. While I like them, I just get a weird feeling about them, and I'm not interested in betting anything I feel uneasy about. I want to be as selective as possible this year.

Here's the final card, unless something comes up unexpectedly:

Syracuse +4
Nebraska -19.5
Troy +26
Bowling Green +16
California -5.5
Florida State -2
Arkansas Pine-Bluff -1 (0.5 units)
Portland State -1 (0.5 units)

GL everyone...
 
GL sat linde...

your a true young cappa in the rising..multiple books...and good ones at that and the small schools..maybe CB's apprentice...

thanks for all your work here this offseason..and obviously at Covers as well...
 
Thanks B.A.R...that's what I like to hear from fellow cappers. I want to be the best of the best, not just now, but later on...I'd love to retire early because I'm making tons of money in this.

Clearly I wouldn't be where I'm at without Covers, CTG, etc...these sites have definitely helped my development. There are good people everywhere...

I don't want to be CB's apprentice though - I hate chalk! Haha...
 
LMAO

Your pretty good for your age..which is a credit for your discipline and finding sports forums early....some of us took a while longer
 
lindetrain said:
Thanks B.A.R...that's what I like to hear from fellow cappers. I want to be the best of the best, not just now, but later on...I'd love to retire early because I'm making tons of money in this.

Clearly I wouldn't be where I'm at without Covers, CTG, etc...these sites have definitely helped my development. There are good people everywhere...

I don't want to be CB's apprentice though - I hate chalk! Haha...
Click to expand...

Hey bro, the money is still green at the end of the day, even if it does have a little chalky residue on it haha.

Notice what happens when I play dogs by the way (see SEMO). The key is to focus on your strengths, and mine is definitely nailing the big favs (see LSU), so more than likely you will see me on very few dogs the rest of the way as they just aren't my specialty. At that end of the day, profit's profit, so focus on what you best. Go get em this weekend!
 
Yikes Syracuse...

Virginia -3

I didn't expect to add anything, but this one has really grown on me. I do realize this is a bad spot for UVA as they must fly across the country to the middle of nowhere to face a Wyoming team who has sold out this game - but I just can't get past the major advantages Virginia has in the trenches. The Cowboys allowed 40 sacks last year (3.3 per game), and returns only 2 starters; both the LG and RG are freshman, and the LT is a sophomore who has played one half in his collegiate career. Virginia's strength is up front on defense, as they return all 4 guys, including an All-ACC selection and a Freshman All-American. While the Cavs look a little short at the skill positions, they return all 5 starters on the OL, while Wyoming brings in 4 new starters on the DL. This is a major advantage, as UVA should have some success on the ground despite having a new starter back there, and Sewell should have plenty of time to find receivers. I hate playing the conference card as I don't believe in betting teams just because they're in a better conference - but it's clear Virginia has a huge talent advantage here and I expect them to control the game. They let Wyoming outplay them in Charlottesville last year and I don't expect them to sleep on the Cowboys again.
 
Nice-write-up.

I basically have like this game all along and never thought I would see a three again...so It came up today and had to hit it.
 
Okay, I'm pathetic...

Georgia PK & Kansas State/Auburn Under 52

I'm convinced teams with inferior coaching AND inferior talent simply don't win games in Week 1 - especially on the road. That is certainly the case here, as Oklahoma State travels to Athens for a night game between the hedges. Some people are really questioning Georgia's defense, but forget how these SEC defenses just reload - last year they allowed only 17.6 PPG despite returning just 5 starters. The offense should be much better and won't have any problems against this soft Pokes defense, who is relatively inexperienced up front. The Cowboys are simply not a good road team (as evidenced by their 3-8 road record the last 2 years), and I just see no way they walk into Athens and catch this UGA team off guard in a nationally televised season opener. Do NOT compare this to Colorado, as it is not a month into the season and is not an early game. I certainly get the feeling Georgia is going to make a run at the SEC East title this year, and that should start with a win here.

I can't figure out how Kansas State is going to score on Auburn. The Tigers have a major advantage up front with a couple talented ends, and have plenty of experience in the secondary. Can Josh Freeman really lead KSU down the field with no major weapons and a mediocre OL? We all know I'm not a fan of the Auburn offense, and I think KSU has the advantage up front with a new OL coming in. I also like the Wildcat secondary, who brings back 3 guys and an All-Big 12 performer in Marcus Watts. Auburn RB Brad Lester is also out for this game (academic problems), who was probably going to get some carries. This was a major lean of mine at 46 and I decided to give it a shot here after teasing it.
 
So here's what I've got for tomorrow:

Virginia -3
Nebraska -19.5
Troy +26
Bowling Green +16
California -5.5
Georgia PK & KSU/Auburn Under 52
Arkansas Pine-Bluff -1 (0.5 units)
Portland State -1 (0.5 units)
 
I think you were nice calling the Cowboys defense "inexpereienced"....their defense just plain sucks. The offense is sick but the UGA QB should gain some confidence in this game. I did intially like OSU at +9(the opener) but even at that number now its a no play. I would pick UGA at -6 if I had to in all honesty.

Good points on that Auburn total.
 
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