El Cap 24 CFB

[EL CAPO]

natty - buckeyes +403.

Odds to make playoff - safest bet without paying insane juice tax ?- i think penn state -140. don't hate clemson or kansas at +200 and 600 and if you like latter better to put your exposure next

heisman - jalon daniels +3000. IMO this is the year for a guy like him with blue bloods moved out of the conference. Besides dillon gabriel, what blue bloods have prolific qbs ? I think Nussmeier and daniels are the best "talents". barring health with this kid; i think kansas has a shot at making the playoff and if he pulls that off that is all he needs.

B10
Indiana o 5.5
Wisconsin o 6.5
Ucla u 5.5
Sparty o 5.5
Maryland u 7.5
Penn state o 9.5
Ohio state o 10.5

B12
Cincy o 5.5
Ucf o 7.5
Kansas o 8.5
Texas tech o 7.5
Arizona state u 4.5
Houston u 4.5
Leans
Tcu o 7.5
Utah u 9.5
K state u 9.5
West virginia u 6.5

ACC
clemson +325
va tech o 8.5
Clemson o 9.5
Florida state u 9.5

SEC
oklahoma o 7.5
Missouri u 9.5
Lean
lsu u 9.5
auburn o 7.5


non power 5
uab o 6.5

win totals matchups
texas tech -180 west virginia
tcu -140 washington
clemson -120 missouri
oh state -145 georgia
va tech -190 iowa state

edit: see the new rules - all these futures are for 3 units minus jalon daniels (1 unit)......for juice not listed i will use -130

add:
oh state to win big ten (+135)
oregon state u 7.5 (-155)
sam houston o 4.5 (-150)
duke u 5.5 (-190)

 

[EL CAPO]

does anyone know if jalon daniels is soft ? been thinking i dabbled on this guy last few years and he always gets injured mysteriously. Dude probably will go down week 3.

big 12 is a very exciting conference - and most underrated conference to me this year. The Big 12 brother conference the ACC - I think the big 12 is much deeper and better.

Big 12 is putting out kansas texas tech ucf and tcu as the 7-10th best teams. Thats 10 teams that can beat each other on any given day and a model of parity as a conference should be. Big ten putting out teams like rutgers and maryland in that tier and i would probably take the big 12 as deepest conference besides sec.

 

[EL CAPO]

Adding Missouri u 9.5 (-150) for regular season..that operation is a not a perennial contender and their coach is a classic fade after a good year. That said the schedule is relatively easy, and the realignment has caused imbalanced schedules within conference too much imo when you compare to Florida and Oklahoma.

Some week 1 bets so far ( have no idea why I shouldn't just bet against all the non power 5s aka the have nots week 1 and 2. Blindly doing it I think has been profitable. Their rosters are in more flux transition and shambles and the big boys just steal their guys. Betting the non power 5 feels very much like a wait and see approach)

Wisconsin -24 vs western Michigan.
Oklahoma -41.5 vs temple.
Notre dame /Texas am u 49
Miami oh/NW u 43.5
Hawaii 13.5
Hawaii/UCLA o 55.5
Wyoming 7 @ Arizona state
Bama -30 vs western Kentucky
Bama western Kentucky o 59
Indiana -19 vs fiu
Va tech -13 @ vandy
Charlotte 10 vs James madison

Considering
Clemson 13.5 vs Georgia
Usc 6.5 vs LSU
Tcu.-8.5 @ Stanford
Sparty -11 vs fau
Nevada 15 @ troy

 

[carolinablue]

Thanks for posting El Capo! Definitely on the same page with more than a few as I haven't funded my accounts yet for cfb but most likely will also be on Okla, Bama, Wyom, UNCC and a bunch of other big favs as I have done very well laying the heavy chalk in week 1 even though I acknowledge it isn't everyone's cup of tea. Best of luck this year man!

 

[B.A.R.]

does anyone know if jalon daniels is soft ? been thinking i dabbled on this guy last few years and he always gets injured mysteriously. Dude probably will go down week 3.

big 12 is a very exciting conference - and most underrated conference to me this year. The Big 12 brother conference the ACC - I think the big 12 is much deeper and better.

Big 12 is putting out kansas texas tech ucf and tcu as the 7-10th best teams. Thats 10 teams that can beat each other on any given day and a model of parity as a conference should be. Big ten putting out teams like rutgers and maryland in that tier and i would probably take the big 12 as deepest conference besides sec.

Who knows with Daniels?

I'd love to see him full season and is worth a very small bet on the Heisman imo with that schedule.

Again, small.

I'll agree, a lot of intrigue with the B12 this year. Simply put, will be a pretty competitive conference from top to bottom.

 

[twinkie13]

GL Capo

 

[HUNT]

I like this capo. Good stuff

 

[EL CAPO]

Adding Missouri u 9.5 (-150) for regular season..that operation is a not a perennial contender and their coach is a classic fade after a good year. That said the schedule is relatively easy, and the realignment has caused imbalanced schedules within conference too much imo when you compare to Florida and Oklahoma.

Some week 1 bets so far ( have no idea why I shouldn't just bet against all the non power 5s aka the have nots week 1 and 2. Blindly doing it I think has been profitable. Their rosters are in more flux transition and shambles and the big boys just steal their guys. Betting the non power 5 feels very much like a wait and see approach)

Wisconsin -24 vs western Michigan.
Oklahoma -41.5 vs temple.
Notre dame /Texas am u 49
Miami oh/NW u 43.5
Hawaii 13.5
Hawaii/UCLA o 55.5
Wyoming 7 @ Arizona state
Bama -30 vs western Kentucky
Bama western Kentucky o 59
Indiana -19 vs fiu
Va tech -13 @ vandy
Charlotte 10 vs James madison

Considering
Clemson 13.5 vs Georgia
Usc 6.5 vs LSU
Tcu.-8.5 @ Stanford
Sparty -11 vs fau
Nevada 15 @ troy

updating card

all previous bets at -110 for 1 unit

thursday
jacksonville state -2.5 (-118) 1 unit
colorado -9.5 (3 units)
friday
Wisconsin -24 vs western Michigan (1u). +3 units at -23 -110
tcu -9.5 @ stanford (3 units)
sparty -14 vs fau (1 unit)
Oklahoma -41.5 vs temple (1u)
saturday
Notre dame /Texas am u 49 (1u)+ 2u at 46.5
Miami oh/NW u 43.5 (1u)
Hawaii 13.5 (1u)
Hawaii/UCLA o 55.5 (1u)
Wyoming 7 @ Arizona state(1u) +1u at +7 (-125)
Bama -30 vs western Kentucky (1u)
Bama western Kentucky o 59 (1u)
Indiana -19 vs fiu (1u) +3u at -21 (120)
Va tech -13 @ vandy (1u)
Charlotte 10 vs James madison - bought off (-.2 u)
clemson +14 vs georgia (-117) 2u
sam houston +10 @ rice (1u)
rice/sam houston u 49 (1u)
syracuse -17 vs ohio (1u)
ohio cust o 47 (1u)
usc 4.5 vs lsu (1 u)

lookaheads
oh state 1.5 @ oregon (3u)
clemson 3.5 @ florida state (3u)
oh st -9 vs michigan (1u)

included bc - fsu side

week 1 sides 7-8
week 1 totals 6-1
overall 13-9

 

[twinkie13]

Hitting that Bama well early baw!!!

 

[EL CAPO]

Add:
Rutgers -10.5 second half -150 (1 unit)
Boston college 17 vs Florida state 1 unit -110

 

[EL CAPO]

Nc st western car u 54.5 -120

 

[EL CAPO]

week 2
heisman add (half units) cam ward 900, travis hunter 1200, shedeur 2500, carson beck 1000
all -110
3 u
tennessee -7 vs nc state
georgia tech -2.5 @ syracuse
colorado 7 @ nebraska
2 u
utah -17 vs baylor
1u
texas -6 @ michigan
kansas -5.5 @ illinois
east carolina 1 @ old dominion
sparty 9 @ maryland
totals
mw/duke u 40
fau/army u 44
georgia tech/cus o 58
utah/baylor u 53

 

[B.A.R.]

Talk to me about the Colorado adds for Heisman.

You see this squad winning 8-9 or more games to even let them sniff NYC?

 

[B.A.R.]

Like the other two adds fwiw.

 

[EL CAPO]

Talk to me about the Colorado adds for Heisman.

You see this squad winning 8-9 or more games to even let them sniff NYC?

you can count on one hand the players as dynamic as these two especially hunter and his 2 way ability

i think they can get to 8

Just see it differently then everyone else i guess - i think they upgraded on the trenches - and now have a serviceable middle of pack oline instead of a bottom 5 percent power 5 oline. The issues against north dakota state were far more about communication on othe backend and confusion. If they clean it up they can win alot of games imo.

 

[EL CAPO]

add byu 12 -110, will be updating card quite a bit here

 

[EL CAPO]

week 2
heisman add (half units) cam ward 900, travis hunter 1200, shedeur 2500, carson beck 1000
all -110
3 u
tennessee -7 vs nc state
georgia tech -2.5 @ syracuse
colorado 7 @ nebraska
2 u
utah -17 vs baylor
1u
texas -6 @ michigan
kansas -5.5 @ illinois
east carolina 1 @ old dominion
sparty 9 @ maryland
totals
mw/duke u 40
fau/army u 44
georgia tech/cus o 58
utah/baylor u 53

updated
3
tennessee -7 vs nc state
georgia tech -2.5 vs nc state
colorado 7 @ nebraska
liberty -22.5 @ new mex state
1
utah -17 (2), baylor 15 (1u)
kansas -5.5 @ illinois
auburn -11.5 vs california
louisville -30 vs jax state
ucf -21 (-120) vs sam houston
sparty 9 @ maryland
texas -6 @ michigan
byu 12 @ smu
navy -13 vs temple
byu 12 @ smu

temple/navy u 43
mw/duke u 40
fau/army u 44
georgia tech/cus o 58
utah/baylor u 53
tennessee o 34.5 team total
liberty/new mex state u 54
k state tulane u 47
charlotte/unc u 48

leans
k state -9.5 @ tulane
clemson -17 vs app
va tech -20.5 vs marshall

week 2
sides 9-6
totals 4-4
overall 13-10

 

[EL CAPO]

3
indiana -3 vs ucla
wisconsin 16 vs alabama
nc state -21 vs la tech
boston college 16.5 @ missouri
tulane 14 @ oklahoma -120

1
kennessaw state 19.5 @ san jose state
new mexico 28 @ auburn
oregon -17 @ oregon state
fresno -19.5 vs new mex state
western kentucky -7 @ middle tennessee
coastal -17 vs temple
baylor -17 vs air force
lsu -7 @ south carolina
eastern michigan -2 vs jax state
umass 3.5 @ buffalo
memphis 7 @ florida state -115
3
indiana ucla u 46
ucf/tcu u 63
kennessaw/san jose state o 44
hawaii/sam houston u 48.5
1
La tech nc state o 48
Missouri Boston college u 54
arizona/kansas state o 60
san diego state/cal u 48
ball state miami fl o 55
utah/utah state u 44 -120
north texas/texas tech o 69
uab arkansas o 60
nevada/minnesota u 44
iowa/troy u 39.5
umass/buffalo u 45
oklahoma/tulane u 45.5
wyoming byu u 40.5
baylor/air force u 41

9-7 sides
9-5 totals
18-12 overall

 

[B.A.R.]

GL thks week Capo

 

[HUNT]

Good luck amigo

 

[EL CAPO]

week 4
3.25u -125 6 point teaser nebraska -1.5, wash state -7
5.5u
usc - 4 vs michigan
3.3u
tcu -2 vs smu
washington state -13 vs san jose state
duke -14.5 vs middle tennessee
arkansas 3 @ auburn
1.1u
texas tech -3 vs arizona state
florida -6.5 vs mississippi state
iowa -2.5 @ minnesota
lsu - 21 vs ucla
clemson -18 vs nc state
Lville -9 vs gt
ohio state -39.5 vs marshall
buffalo 14 @ northern illinois
army -7 @ rice
virginia -3 @ coastal
rutgers 3.5 @ va tech
sparty 7 @ boston college -130

ucla/lsu o 56.5
rice/army u 43.5
boston college/michigan state u 45.5
byu/kansas state u 49
cal/fsu u 44.5
washington state/san jose state o 55
duke/middle tennessee o 51
florida/miss state o 58.5
ole miss/georgia southern o 67.5
oklahoma/tennessee u 57
toledo/western kentucky o 59
akron/south carolina u 42.5
stanford/syracuse o 56.5
sam houston/nmstu u 44.5
add:
vandy/missouri o 52
houston/cincy u 48

week 4
sides 12-5
totals 11-5
overall 23-10

 

[UTSUX]

BOL this week

 

[EL CAPO]

great week 23-10 last week, 67-41 ,62% year to date - full game sides and totals
obviously - assigning confidence levels/units to my picks is much worse then the flat betting record

Week 5
3 laying 3.3
georgia -2 vs bama
nebraska -10 vs purdue
new mexico -7 @ new mexico state
central michigan -1 vs san diego state'
illinois 17.5 @ penn state
wisconsin 14.5 @ usc
texas -38 vs mississippi state
east carolina -3 vs utsa (-120)
charlotte 6.5 @ rice
1
ohio state -24 @ michigan state
memphis -24 vs middle tennessee state
unlv -3 vs fresno -120
lsu -20.5 vs south alabama
akron 12.5 @ ohio
louisiana monroe 8.5 @ troy
western michigan 5.5 @ marshall
unc 3 @ duke
iowa state -12 @ houston
3
oklahoma/auburn u 47.5
air fore wyoming u 36.5
byu/baylor u 45
michigan/minnesota u 39
umass/miami oh u 47.5
buffalo/uconn u 45.5
utsa/east carolina u 54.5
central michigan/san diego state u 55
1
ball state/james madison o 56.5
arkansas/texas am u 52
houston/iowa state u 43.5
memphis/middle tennessee state o 61.5
ADD:
boise state/washington state o 65
duke/unc u 55.5
lville/notre dame u 45.5
ucf -14 vs colorado
colorado/ucf o 62

considering
usf/tulane o 63.5
ucla 24 vs oregon
lville/notre dame u 48
troy/ul monroe u 46.5
georgia/alabama o 49.5

 

[EL CAPO]

week 5 results
10-7 sides
9-7 totals
19-14 overall
+35 units -34.1 units

86-55 ytd

 

[EL CAPO]

Week 6
6u , to win amount
Wisconsin -13.5 vs Purdue
3
Kansas +3 @arizona state
Nevada 7.5 @ San jose
Ohio state -21 vs iowa
Navy -8.5 vs air force
1
Stanford 9 vs va tech
Ucf 1 @ florida
Michigan state 24.5 @ oregon
Virginia -3 vs Boston college
UConn -14 vs temple
Colorado state 14 @ Oregon state
Miami oh 7 @ Toledo
Hawaii San Diego state u 47
Stanford/Virginia tech o 54
Iowa oh state o 44.5
Texas tech Arizona o 62
cuse/unlv o 58.5
Florida ucf o 61.5
add:
western michigan -9 vs ball state
jacksonville state -17 vs kennessaw state