bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
Bowl Record Update
forthcoming
Summary of plays
Nevada* +10 -120 vs Arizona U 110/100 Win
Nevada/Arizona U* Over 75 -110 110/100 Win
Utah State* -10 -110 vs Toledo 220/200 Win
Toledo/Utah State* Over 58 -120 220/200loss
BYU*-2.5 -115 vs San Diego State 115/100 Win
BYU/San Diego State* Under 49 -110 110/100 Win
Ball State* +7½ -110 vs Central Florida 220/200 Loss
Ball State/Central Florida* Over 61 -110 220/200 Loss
Ball State* +240 vs Central Florida 50/112 Loss
BAllSt 2nd half Over 28 -110 for three U loss
UL Lafayette* -6 -110 vs East Carolina 55/50 Win
East Carolina/UL Lafayette* Over 64 -110 220/200 Win
Boise State* -5 -110 vs Washington U 110/100 Loss
Washington U/Boise State* Under 47 -120 120/100 Loss
Fresno State* -12 -110 vs SMU 440/400Loss
SMU/Fresno State* Over 59 -120 480/400Loss
Teaser -100 loss
Parlay -100 loss
Western Kentucky -6 -110 110/100 Loss
Under 60 -110 110/100 Win
San Jose State -7 -115 115/100 Win
Under 44 -110 110/100 loss
added 2nd half plays
SJSt -2.5 -115 115/100 Win
Under 24 -127 127/100loss
Duke +10 -110 55/50loss
Over 59 -115 115/100 Win
UCLA -1 -115 115/110Loss
Over 81 -110 110/100Loss
UL Monroe* -6 -125 500/400loss
Ohio/UL Monroe* Over 59 -110 440/400push
parlay Louisiana Monroe -7/Over 60 - 100/269loss
Louisiana Monroe team total over 34 -115 115/100loss
ingame LA MON +7.0 -110 110/100loss
ingame Over 64−115 115/100loss
ingame Over 60−115 230/200loss
ingame LAMON +24 -110 220/200loss
Virginia Tech*-2 -105 vs Rutgers 210/200Win
Rutgers/Virginia Tech* Under -110 220/200Win
Texas Tech* -12.5 -110 vs Minnesota U 330/300loss
Minnesota U/Texas Tech* Over 55 -110 110/100Win
Texas Tech* TT Over 34 -110 vs Minnesota U 220/200push
Air Force*-1 -110 vs Rice 110/100loss
Air Force/Rice* Over 61 -110 220/200loss
Air Force* +½ -120 vs Rice for 2nd Halfloss
Air Force/Rice* Under 35½ -240 for 2nd Half 240/100Win
West Virginia* -3 -130 vs Syracuse 130/100loss
West Virginia/Syracuse* Over 70 -110 220/200loss
West Virginia vs Syracuse Under 65.5 -120 120/100 Win
Navy* +14 -127 vs Arizona State 110/100loss
Navy/Arizona State* Under 54 -110 110/100loss
Oregon State* -3 -115 vs Texas 230/200loss
Oregon State/Texas* Over 56 -115 115/100Win
TCU* -2 -110 vs Michigan State 110/100loss
TCU/Michigan State* Under 41 -115 230/200Win
Vanderbilt*-7 -120 vs NC State 360/300Win
NC State/Vanderbilt* Over 52 -110 220/200Win
NC State/Vanderbilt* Over 27 -120 for 2nd Half 120/100loss
USC* -7 -115 vs Georgia Tech 345/300loss
Georgia Tech/USC* Over 61 -110 220/200loss
Iowa State* ML +115 vs Tulsa 50/57loss
Over 50 -110 55/50loss
Clemson* ML +173 vs LSU 100/173 Win
Clemson/LSU* Over 58-115 115/100loss
Oklahoma State -16 -130 330/300win
Over68 -110 220/200Win
Mississippi St +1 -105 105/100loss
Over 54 -115 115/100push
South Carolina -3 -130 260/200win
Under 49 -140 140/100loss
parlay South Carolina +3.5/Under 55 -130 260/200Win
Georgia -7 -130 650/500Win
Under 64 -130 260/200loss
Parlay Georgia* -6 -180/Under 70 -275 400/442loss
Parlay
Oklahoma State* -7 -650
Georgia* -340
Florida State* -570
400/301Win
parlay
Georgia -380
Nebraska/Georgia Under 72 -390
200/137 loss
Live In-Play Georgia* -210 1008 To Win 480Win
ingame Uga −8.5+100 200/200Win
ingame Nebraska/Georgia* Under 78 -110 110/100Win
Stanford* -3 -120 vs Wisconsin 240/200Win
Wisconsin/Stanford* Under 49 -140 140/100Win
Wisconsin/Stanford* Under 47 -110 110/100Win
parlay
Stanford -180*
Wisconsin/Stanford Under 55 -300
100/107 Win
Florida State* -13 -130 vs Northern Illinois 130/100Win
Florida State* -14 -110 vs Northern Illinois 110/100Win
Northern Illinois/Florida State* Over59 -110 110/100loss
Florida* -13 -130 vs Louisville 390/300loss
Louisville/Florida* Under 49 -130 260/200loss
parlay
Florida* -7 -350
Louisville/Florida* Under 57 -350
200/135 loss
Florida TT Under 31½ -120* 240/200 Win
Louisville Under 17 -110* <small>vs</small> Florida 110/100loss
parlay
Florida* -630 loss
Oregon* -320
Texas A&M* +7 -660
Alabama* -355
600/755
Oregon* -7 -128 vs Kansas State 640/500Win
Kansas State/Oregon* Over 73-117 117/100loss
ingame Oregon -9 -115 605/500Win
Texas A&M -3 -110* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma 550/500Win
Over 72 -117 117/100loss
ingame TexasA&M -6.5 -110 550/500Win
Mississippi* -3 -120 vs Pittsburgh U 330/300Win
Pittsburgh U/Mississippi* Under 54 -110 110/100loss
added Mississippi* -3 -127 254/200win
Sam Houston State* +105 vs North Dakota State 100/105loss
Arkansas State* -3 -127 vs Kent State 254/200Win
Arkansas State/Kent State* Over 62 -120 240/200loss
added Arkansas State* -2½ -115 vs Kent State 230/200Win
Alabama* -9 -120 vs Notre Dame dime
Alabama/Notre Dame* Over 40 -115 230/200
2 team parlay Alabama-6/Over 6 200/175
Alabama* -3 -168 vs Notre Dame for 1st Half 168/100
Alabama* -6 -110 vs Notre Dame for 1st Half 220/200
Alabama* -3 +100 vs Notre Dame for 1st Quarter 100/100
Alabama* -3 -120 vs Notre Dame for 2nd Quarter 220/200
Alabama* -3 +100 vs Notre Dame for 3rd Quarter 200/200
Alabama* -½ -120 vs Notre Dame for 4th Quarter 120/100
Alabama* -6 -120 vs Notre Dame for 2nd Half 240/200l
Alabama* Over 13 -140 vs Notre Dame for 2nd Half TT 280/200
A.Cooper pass receptions over 5 +120*
A.Cooper pass receiving yards over 76½ +105*
A.Cooper scores a TD* +120 all x1
============================================================
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Bowl plays and thoughts.I'll will post these as I have time in order of game dates...please bear with me as time is a big thing right now.
I have said before the bowl games are the hardest and most time consuming to capp. A lot more things that one should consider like emotion, bowl experience, talent matchups, momentum, special teams, coaching and many times the intangibles in bowls outweigh the pure statistical #s.
So, some random thoughts and some plays, most of which will be small, a few medium and very few large. Comments, disagreements and general discussion welcome
GLTA
Nevada* +10 -120 vs Arizona U 110/100
Nevada/Arizona U* Over 75 -110 110/100 ....impressive big stats of the featured running backs – Nevada’s Jefferson and Arizona’s Carey, are similar. Neither defense will win any awards.Both the Wolf Pack of Nevada, & Wildcats of Arizona, finished among the nation's leaders across the offensive board, but also near the rear of the pack, defensively. So the Over stands a good chance. Now, does one want to lay points with Arizona at the end of the first Rich Rodriguez season, against a former WAC, now Mountain West foe probably which doesn’t qualify as something to measure the program by? Or, take points with Nevada at the end of another long Chris Ault season, where the systems have been in place longer. Arizona managed a 7-5 SU record because enough of the holdover personnel fit Rodriguez’ spread offense and 3-3-5 defensive schemes. But when they were playing opposing offenses that were strong in the rushing department, the Wildcats didn’t fare very well unless their defense engineered a lot of turnovers. Arizona’s last four wins were against opponents whose coordinators were more familiar with game-planning and containing pro-style offenses (Washington, USC), and then against haplessly overmatched offenses (Colorado, Utah). Nevada played its share of patsies, for sure, but each of their five losses was to a bowl team except for South Florida,Since head coach Ault installed Nevada’s Pistol offense in 2005, Nevada’s average rushing yards per game for the seasons have been: 199, 170, 214, 278, 344, 292, 247, and finally 260 yards per game this season. Arizona got 230 yards per game this season, a big jump from 131 and 94 yards per game the last two seasons. Arizona’s run/pass spit this season has been about a 50-50 ratio. Nevada, on the other hand, runs the ball 50 times per game (61.6% of the snaps), and their QB Fajardo has 500 more rushing yards than Arizona QB Scott. Speaking of Scott, his two worst games of the season were his last two, post-concussion that caused him to miss a game, with completion percentages of only 44% and 48%.
As many know, I play a low % of dogs in cf and with many factors such as Nev bowl record and schedule power rankings this yr that say go with the fav here also.....But there seems to be enough evidence to also suggest the Wolf Pack can hang around and scrape out a win or get in the backdoor
Utah State* -10 -110 vs Toledo 220/200
Toledo/Utah State* Over 58 -120 220/200..... I like this game and total.The dual-threat qb for Utah St is Keeton and a team that has a long list of impressive statistics and rankings it can wave in front of Toledo on the cold blue turf? Utah State has outscored opponents 131-6 in the first quarter.hint, hint. That makes Utah State look dominantly awesome when you stop right there. But the games are four quarters long. From the second quarter on, the differential was 283-179, still favorable, but not end-of-the-world supreme dominance. Against Wisconsin and BYU, Utah State led 7-0 and 3-0 at the end of the first quarter and eventually lost each game. At the time the games were played, neither Wisconsin nor BYU could get out of their own way on offense, and each team lost 5 games this season, so not talking giants here, which must mean that most of the rest of Utah State’s opponents were pretty lousy to have fallen behind by so much, and too stressed to come back after having such large holes dug against them. Toledo isn’t the type of team to fall behind by a bunch early, and if they do, the Rockets have an offense that has averaged 456 yards per game while the team has scored 33 points per game. Utah State’s defense has high, single-digit and Top 15 and Top 20 rankings in a lot of categories. But you can throw them all out the window for this match-up against a stranger that has a proven, productive system in place. The Rockets haven’t trailed by more than 7 points at halftime this season, and they won a bunch of the games in which they faced slim halftime deficits. In the last two seasons, Toledo hasn’t lost a game by more than 7 points, so saying that their defense has a lot to prove because it allows 464 yards per game (140 more per game than Utah State has allowed) probably overlooks that the team generally makes it work for them, and that the Rockets’ defense is often loaded with turnovers that foil big yardage by opposing offenses. They’ve got two quarterbacks who are comfortable operating the offense, and since the #1 guy is the very mobile Owens, Utah State’s sacking prowess may be limited. The big question for Toledo is the status of RB Fluellen’s high ankle sprain. ?? He had three 200+ yard rushing games this season and accounted for 32% of the offense’s touches. Biggest worry about Toledo? A Red-Zone touchdown percentage of only 49%, ranking among the nation’s lowest. If you trade three field goals for three touchdowns, your bet will be losing.
One must stop to consider that DD dogs have been money in the bank in minor bowl games, something like 30-22-1 ATS since 1998 with sixteen outright upsets....So play the early favorites carefully. And since this has been UtahSt best season ever, will the players be up for this lower bowl. I like their chance but I'm just a football capper
Check the weather forecast for Boise!!
:shake:
forthcoming
Summary of plays
Nevada* +10 -120 vs Arizona U 110/100 Win
Nevada/Arizona U* Over 75 -110 110/100 Win
Utah State* -10 -110 vs Toledo 220/200 Win
Toledo/Utah State* Over 58 -120 220/200loss
BYU*-2.5 -115 vs San Diego State 115/100 Win
BYU/San Diego State* Under 49 -110 110/100 Win
Ball State* +7½ -110 vs Central Florida 220/200 Loss
Ball State/Central Florida* Over 61 -110 220/200 Loss
Ball State* +240 vs Central Florida 50/112 Loss
BAllSt 2nd half Over 28 -110 for three U loss
UL Lafayette* -6 -110 vs East Carolina 55/50 Win
East Carolina/UL Lafayette* Over 64 -110 220/200 Win
Boise State* -5 -110 vs Washington U 110/100 Loss
Washington U/Boise State* Under 47 -120 120/100 Loss
Fresno State* -12 -110 vs SMU 440/400Loss
SMU/Fresno State* Over 59 -120 480/400Loss
Teaser -100 loss
Parlay -100 loss
Western Kentucky -6 -110 110/100 Loss
Under 60 -110 110/100 Win
San Jose State -7 -115 115/100 Win
Under 44 -110 110/100 loss
added 2nd half plays
SJSt -2.5 -115 115/100 Win
Under 24 -127 127/100loss
Duke +10 -110 55/50loss
Over 59 -115 115/100 Win
UCLA -1 -115 115/110Loss
Over 81 -110 110/100Loss
UL Monroe* -6 -125 500/400loss
Ohio/UL Monroe* Over 59 -110 440/400push
parlay Louisiana Monroe -7/Over 60 - 100/269loss
Louisiana Monroe team total over 34 -115 115/100loss
ingame LA MON +7.0 -110 110/100loss
ingame Over 64−115 115/100loss
ingame Over 60−115 230/200loss
ingame LAMON +24 -110 220/200loss
Virginia Tech*-2 -105 vs Rutgers 210/200Win
Rutgers/Virginia Tech* Under -110 220/200Win
Texas Tech* -12.5 -110 vs Minnesota U 330/300loss
Minnesota U/Texas Tech* Over 55 -110 110/100Win
Texas Tech* TT Over 34 -110 vs Minnesota U 220/200push
Air Force*-1 -110 vs Rice 110/100loss
Air Force/Rice* Over 61 -110 220/200loss
Air Force* +½ -120 vs Rice for 2nd Halfloss
Air Force/Rice* Under 35½ -240 for 2nd Half 240/100Win
West Virginia* -3 -130 vs Syracuse 130/100loss
West Virginia/Syracuse* Over 70 -110 220/200loss
West Virginia vs Syracuse Under 65.5 -120 120/100 Win
Navy* +14 -127 vs Arizona State 110/100loss
Navy/Arizona State* Under 54 -110 110/100loss
Oregon State* -3 -115 vs Texas 230/200loss
Oregon State/Texas* Over 56 -115 115/100Win
TCU* -2 -110 vs Michigan State 110/100loss
TCU/Michigan State* Under 41 -115 230/200Win
Vanderbilt*-7 -120 vs NC State 360/300Win
NC State/Vanderbilt* Over 52 -110 220/200Win
NC State/Vanderbilt* Over 27 -120 for 2nd Half 120/100loss
USC* -7 -115 vs Georgia Tech 345/300loss
Georgia Tech/USC* Over 61 -110 220/200loss
Iowa State* ML +115 vs Tulsa 50/57loss
Over 50 -110 55/50loss
Clemson* ML +173 vs LSU 100/173 Win
Clemson/LSU* Over 58-115 115/100loss
Oklahoma State -16 -130 330/300win
Over68 -110 220/200Win
Mississippi St +1 -105 105/100loss
Over 54 -115 115/100push
South Carolina -3 -130 260/200win
Under 49 -140 140/100loss
parlay South Carolina +3.5/Under 55 -130 260/200Win
Georgia -7 -130 650/500Win
Under 64 -130 260/200loss
Parlay Georgia* -6 -180/Under 70 -275 400/442loss
Parlay
Oklahoma State* -7 -650
Georgia* -340
Florida State* -570
400/301Win
parlay
Georgia -380
Nebraska/Georgia Under 72 -390
200/137 loss
Live In-Play Georgia* -210 1008 To Win 480Win
ingame Uga −8.5+100 200/200Win
ingame Nebraska/Georgia* Under 78 -110 110/100Win
Stanford* -3 -120 vs Wisconsin 240/200Win
Wisconsin/Stanford* Under 49 -140 140/100Win
Wisconsin/Stanford* Under 47 -110 110/100Win
parlay
Stanford -180*
Wisconsin/Stanford Under 55 -300
100/107 Win
Florida State* -13 -130 vs Northern Illinois 130/100Win
Florida State* -14 -110 vs Northern Illinois 110/100Win
Northern Illinois/Florida State* Over59 -110 110/100loss
Florida* -13 -130 vs Louisville 390/300loss
Louisville/Florida* Under 49 -130 260/200loss
parlay
Florida* -7 -350
Louisville/Florida* Under 57 -350
200/135 loss
Florida TT Under 31½ -120* 240/200 Win
Louisville Under 17 -110* <small>vs</small> Florida 110/100loss
parlay
Florida* -630 loss
Oregon* -320
Texas A&M* +7 -660
Alabama* -355
600/755
Oregon* -7 -128 vs Kansas State 640/500Win
Kansas State/Oregon* Over 73-117 117/100loss
ingame Oregon -9 -115 605/500Win
Texas A&M -3 -110* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma 550/500Win
Over 72 -117 117/100loss
ingame TexasA&M -6.5 -110 550/500Win
Mississippi* -3 -120 vs Pittsburgh U 330/300Win
Pittsburgh U/Mississippi* Under 54 -110 110/100loss
added Mississippi* -3 -127 254/200win
Sam Houston State* +105 vs North Dakota State 100/105loss
Arkansas State* -3 -127 vs Kent State 254/200Win
Arkansas State/Kent State* Over 62 -120 240/200loss
added Arkansas State* -2½ -115 vs Kent State 230/200Win
Alabama* -9 -120 vs Notre Dame dime
Alabama/Notre Dame* Over 40 -115 230/200
2 team parlay Alabama-6/Over 6 200/175
Alabama* -3 -168 vs Notre Dame for 1st Half 168/100
Alabama* -6 -110 vs Notre Dame for 1st Half 220/200
Alabama* -3 +100 vs Notre Dame for 1st Quarter 100/100
Alabama* -3 -120 vs Notre Dame for 2nd Quarter 220/200
Alabama* -3 +100 vs Notre Dame for 3rd Quarter 200/200
Alabama* -½ -120 vs Notre Dame for 4th Quarter 120/100
Alabama* -6 -120 vs Notre Dame for 2nd Half 240/200l
Alabama* Over 13 -140 vs Notre Dame for 2nd Half TT 280/200
A.Cooper pass receptions over 5 +120*
A.Cooper pass receiving yards over 76½ +105*
A.Cooper scores a TD* +120 all x1
============================================================
===============================================================
Bowl plays and thoughts.I'll will post these as I have time in order of game dates...please bear with me as time is a big thing right now.
I have said before the bowl games are the hardest and most time consuming to capp. A lot more things that one should consider like emotion, bowl experience, talent matchups, momentum, special teams, coaching and many times the intangibles in bowls outweigh the pure statistical #s.
So, some random thoughts and some plays, most of which will be small, a few medium and very few large. Comments, disagreements and general discussion welcome
GLTA
Nevada* +10 -120 vs Arizona U 110/100
Nevada/Arizona U* Over 75 -110 110/100 ....impressive big stats of the featured running backs – Nevada’s Jefferson and Arizona’s Carey, are similar. Neither defense will win any awards.Both the Wolf Pack of Nevada, & Wildcats of Arizona, finished among the nation's leaders across the offensive board, but also near the rear of the pack, defensively. So the Over stands a good chance. Now, does one want to lay points with Arizona at the end of the first Rich Rodriguez season, against a former WAC, now Mountain West foe probably which doesn’t qualify as something to measure the program by? Or, take points with Nevada at the end of another long Chris Ault season, where the systems have been in place longer. Arizona managed a 7-5 SU record because enough of the holdover personnel fit Rodriguez’ spread offense and 3-3-5 defensive schemes. But when they were playing opposing offenses that were strong in the rushing department, the Wildcats didn’t fare very well unless their defense engineered a lot of turnovers. Arizona’s last four wins were against opponents whose coordinators were more familiar with game-planning and containing pro-style offenses (Washington, USC), and then against haplessly overmatched offenses (Colorado, Utah). Nevada played its share of patsies, for sure, but each of their five losses was to a bowl team except for South Florida,Since head coach Ault installed Nevada’s Pistol offense in 2005, Nevada’s average rushing yards per game for the seasons have been: 199, 170, 214, 278, 344, 292, 247, and finally 260 yards per game this season. Arizona got 230 yards per game this season, a big jump from 131 and 94 yards per game the last two seasons. Arizona’s run/pass spit this season has been about a 50-50 ratio. Nevada, on the other hand, runs the ball 50 times per game (61.6% of the snaps), and their QB Fajardo has 500 more rushing yards than Arizona QB Scott. Speaking of Scott, his two worst games of the season were his last two, post-concussion that caused him to miss a game, with completion percentages of only 44% and 48%.
As many know, I play a low % of dogs in cf and with many factors such as Nev bowl record and schedule power rankings this yr that say go with the fav here also.....But there seems to be enough evidence to also suggest the Wolf Pack can hang around and scrape out a win or get in the backdoor
Utah State* -10 -110 vs Toledo 220/200
Toledo/Utah State* Over 58 -120 220/200..... I like this game and total.The dual-threat qb for Utah St is Keeton and a team that has a long list of impressive statistics and rankings it can wave in front of Toledo on the cold blue turf? Utah State has outscored opponents 131-6 in the first quarter.hint, hint. That makes Utah State look dominantly awesome when you stop right there. But the games are four quarters long. From the second quarter on, the differential was 283-179, still favorable, but not end-of-the-world supreme dominance. Against Wisconsin and BYU, Utah State led 7-0 and 3-0 at the end of the first quarter and eventually lost each game. At the time the games were played, neither Wisconsin nor BYU could get out of their own way on offense, and each team lost 5 games this season, so not talking giants here, which must mean that most of the rest of Utah State’s opponents were pretty lousy to have fallen behind by so much, and too stressed to come back after having such large holes dug against them. Toledo isn’t the type of team to fall behind by a bunch early, and if they do, the Rockets have an offense that has averaged 456 yards per game while the team has scored 33 points per game. Utah State’s defense has high, single-digit and Top 15 and Top 20 rankings in a lot of categories. But you can throw them all out the window for this match-up against a stranger that has a proven, productive system in place. The Rockets haven’t trailed by more than 7 points at halftime this season, and they won a bunch of the games in which they faced slim halftime deficits. In the last two seasons, Toledo hasn’t lost a game by more than 7 points, so saying that their defense has a lot to prove because it allows 464 yards per game (140 more per game than Utah State has allowed) probably overlooks that the team generally makes it work for them, and that the Rockets’ defense is often loaded with turnovers that foil big yardage by opposing offenses. They’ve got two quarterbacks who are comfortable operating the offense, and since the #1 guy is the very mobile Owens, Utah State’s sacking prowess may be limited. The big question for Toledo is the status of RB Fluellen’s high ankle sprain. ?? He had three 200+ yard rushing games this season and accounted for 32% of the offense’s touches. Biggest worry about Toledo? A Red-Zone touchdown percentage of only 49%, ranking among the nation’s lowest. If you trade three field goals for three touchdowns, your bet will be losing.
One must stop to consider that DD dogs have been money in the bank in minor bowl games, something like 30-22-1 ATS since 1998 with sixteen outright upsets....So play the early favorites carefully. And since this has been UtahSt best season ever, will the players be up for this lower bowl. I like their chance but I'm just a football capper
Check the weather forecast for Boise!!
:shake:
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