aplous
Donkey Hater
Hardman didn’t practice last week at all. Near zero chance he plays this week imo.
AFC Championship: Bengals vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
As someone backing the Bengals, I’m really not liking all the Burrowhead talk. That’s the sorta bulletin board material a team will rally around.
Hey, Cincy is the reigning conference champs.
You have to beat the champs, they can talk the talk for now.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Yeah. I know they have the right, I just don’t think it’s the greatest idea. Why give teams more bulletin board material. I get that they’ve owned them lately, it just makes me start questioning my Bengals bet. Then again, anything can get me to question any bet usually so there’s that.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Btw, I’ve always wanted to ask but for whatever reason feel like I should know even though I have no clue. What does B.A.R stand for?
Back in my early 20s (early 2000s) myself and a few buddies used to really harass touts. One of them was Big Al Reno and his son Big Al Junior. I actually was just talking about this earlier. Anyways, in Jan 2003 I made up 3 different names at Covers for us to post under. They were all tout names or variations. So, the name was Big Al Reno. When we came here, I turned that into an abbreviation since I have no actual affiliation with them. Ironically, I was a pretty decent bar fly from 23-33 so that fit as well.
Oh, I get it.
That plays with fire. They had their own motivation last week via the tickets sold to Atlanta. Is what it is.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Oh yeah. I remember him. When I first started here I remember wondering if he was actually you.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Exactly
Yeah, hence why I wanted to abbreviate it.
Another one was Tony Salinas, the Texas high roller! I used to get rotation books with his ad in it all the time.
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Ah, the good ol’ tout days. I remember one of those guys calling my house around dinner time (this was early 90’s, before cell phones. I was probably around 18 years old) telling my dad I owed him money for him giving me picks. Of course it was all bullshit. He and my dad got into a yelling match when the guy threatened him. I wish I remember which one it was.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
And there was (and is? Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie - Big Al ) also Big Al McMordie. I worked at the same firm with him for exactly one day (7/7/90) when we were summer associates. I don't recall how I connected him to the tout when I started betting 6 years later since he was operating under a fake last name. (First name actually is Alec.) He went to law school at U of M and apparently is still licensed to practice in Texas.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I had a sports pager in the late 90's that gave me updated scores and odds while I was out drinking or on dates.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I won the CFB capping contest run by the Las Vegas Sporting News in 1997 and tried to parlay that into a career as a tout. 1998 wasn't as good, though, and I went back to law. One of my clients was the brother of a famous Buckeye/Bronco, which was kind of fun.
The guys who won the NFL contest in 1997 were an astonishing 51-15-2, and that record was absolutely legit.
The guys who won the NFL contest in 1997 were an astonishing 51-15-2, and that record was absolutely legit.
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
1-800-555-tell was like 15-20 yrs ago - Sports Phone in 70-80's ...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Really? I read he was practicing this week, I dunno to what extent but the fact he out there seems to me gives him at least some chance. I dunno how big a difference he is but he def more scary than mvs. Tony was only other guy I recall getting multiple targets besides kelce last week, I think we can all agree there little to no chance cincy let’s kelce control the game so having another weapon they trust probably be a big deal. All I’ve read is he limited in practices and feels better than the previous weeks, I feel like he has some kinda chance to play, how likely it is I have no clue.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I mean, I don’t love it, it probably being blown out of proportion tho. End of the day can ya really say anything that makes either one these teams play better? If it was some meaningless game in week 8 sure, you can always use some extra motivation. When you playing to go to the SB that all the motivation needed, anything extra they talk bout is just talk imo. After it over if kc wins of course they will bring it up, if cincy wins they will still claim they felt disrespected in one way or another.
Should you give the other team bulletin board material? Probably not. Does it really effect how hard they practice, play, or how focused they are in this game? Probably not, they all can take anything and use it to motivate themselves. Long as cincy backs it up they can jaw as much they want, I could argue running their mouths helps them motivate themselves. Nobody wants to get that thrown back in their faces! Talk the talk; walk the walk.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Randy Gradishar
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Wait, the Bengals are 19-1 ATS in their last 20 when not laying 7 or more?
These guys on ESPN wager may be smoking something. Maybe not.
These guys on ESPN wager may be smoking something. Maybe not.
When did the happen?
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
T avis Kelce (back) is questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship against the Bengals.
He practiced in full all week but was added to the injury report and the questionable line on Friday in a somewhat ominous sign. He also did not talk to the media in a scheduled Friday availability per James Palmer because he was undergoing treatment. This is an interesting last-minute wrench for the Chiefs, but we'd lean on expecting Kelce to play despite the status until we hear more detailed reports.
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Cincy will win if: Chiefs don’t get pressure, Andy abandons the run.
KC will win if: they get pressure, Andy full on commits to the run.
Pressure to me is hurries, knockdowns and at least 2 or 3 sacks.
KC sat back in a weak zone last meeting and let Cincy tear it apart. Spags catches strays from lots of people, but this 2nd half of the season D is eerily similar to the 2019 2nd half. And if they send pressure regularly and hit the QB enough, I see this being a Chiefs 7-10 point win/will Andy take his foot of the gas and make it interesting type finish.
No pressure? Cincy drops minimum 30.
I see long deliberate drives by both teams. If only even a couple of those end in FG or punt, under is very much in play.
Burrowhead should be rocking.
As a fan, I don’t know how you can confidently play any of these guys in props. Don’t force it. Just been there enough where you play Pacheco and it’s McKinnon. You play Toney and it’s Hardman.
KC will win if: they get pressure, Andy full on commits to the run.
Pressure to me is hurries, knockdowns and at least 2 or 3 sacks.
KC sat back in a weak zone last meeting and let Cincy tear it apart. Spags catches strays from lots of people, but this 2nd half of the season D is eerily similar to the 2019 2nd half. And if they send pressure regularly and hit the QB enough, I see this being a Chiefs 7-10 point win/will Andy take his foot of the gas and make it interesting type finish.
No pressure? Cincy drops minimum 30.
I see long deliberate drives by both teams. If only even a couple of those end in FG or punt, under is very much in play.
Burrowhead should be rocking.
As a fan, I don’t know how you can confidently play any of these guys in props. Don’t force it. Just been there enough where you play Pacheco and it’s McKinnon. You play Toney and it’s Hardman.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Six covers by 1.5 or less, but the stat is correct. Only loser was at Browns on Halloween this season -- lost 32-13 as -3.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Yes. Does anyone remember which station started with the "ticker?"
I remember...and it was not a sports station. I'm curious if anyone else will remember. This was 1996 or 1997. At the time, SWOMO St. (that is SW Missouri St, now just Missouri St.) was absolutely killing it beating the spread in college hoops, and Auburn was the team just murking teams by like 30+ every game.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
it would come on like Tell Meeeee!!!!!!
Nothing better than slurring into that and having to repeat yourself several times.
The adjectives were hilarious too...
CBB
"Southern Illinois is VAPORIZING Bradley 76-52"
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Welcome to the last few years about Mahomes lol
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Maybe. It was warranted. Nobody wants to talk about Joe Burrow not even having as good of a season as Jared Goff though. Let’s just anoint him tho because he’s super cool and smokes cigars. He has a limited resume and no resume when compared to Mahomes. Win tomorrow and win a Super Bowl, then you get that treatment.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Not arguing how good Mahomes is. Just media dick sucking. All started with Lebron imo.
The Bears front office accepts your thanks
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I just heard somebody on radio the other day mention neither mahomes or kelce was 100%, had no idea he was dealing w something?
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Yeah if this is true then the oddsmakers just think that Jones and Clark will eat this oline apart. Maybe they will. Buffalo’s dline was atrocious without Miller.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Wow core memory. Vaporizing! I can hear the inflection on the voice and everything. You knew you were covering if you were Vaporizing hahah
I'd say 2000-2005 we'd absolutely wreck that number weeknights at work for CBB scores.
VAPORIZING
Demoralizing
Ambushing
Many more...
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
It's a bit different with Joey b
Hes getting into almost pop culture with how popular he is with girls
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Mahomes sounds like Kermit the frog, so he was never gonna have that sort of crossover appeal
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Dick suckin comes in all shapes and sizes!
Coolslaw1
Pretty much a regular
There was a yr when Clev St covered like every spread too I seem to remember
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
The answer was Headline News, by the way. Was a CNN station at the time, and they were the first to put a “ticker” along the bottom of the screen. You’d have to watch their news as the sports scores scrolled along the bottom.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Joe Burrow - Wikipedia
Guy is a bum, you didn’t know?
Short term memory with me…
Number 1 pick in the draft, Heisman, National Championship and Super Bowl attended at the QB position.
We should temper the accolades. Totally agree.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
They are BOTH legit. No doubt. Should be a great one.
Fwiw, Goff had one of the more underrated seasons you'll see for a QB.
I didn't realize till afterwards how good it was.
Burrow is the QB of the defending AFC champions. He owns Kansas City, so far in his career.
No one gets "slurped" on more than Mahomes, and deservedly so. He's amazing.
I didn't realize till afterwards how good it was.
Burrow is the QB of the defending AFC champions. He owns Kansas City, so far in his career.
No one gets "slurped" on more than Mahomes, and deservedly so. He's amazing.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
And Mahomes should. I’ll leave it like this and we can get back to capping the game and Capping The Game.
Mahomes is the guy. No doubt. All I ever said was I think it’s not a slam dunk every team starts with him as their choice. To be fair, I’d say it’s slanted Mahomes way.
Burrow gets alotta love, but for good reason. As far as perception, he smokes cigars yea, goes on “edgier” platforms I would say. He’s from the Midwest, playing for his home state, brought his buddy Chase from college with him….it’s an easy like.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
@MiserableBengalsFan what are your thoughts on this matchup? Can you provide any worthwhile insight before the game starts?
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Pasting from my 'ol thread...
Bengals...I think
Mentioned above I jumped on them +2.5 and teaser as I thought it could move plus unknown on Mahomes. It is safe to say Mahomes is not 100% but his 80% is still a top 5 QB so its just a distraction.
Getting into where I'm at with this is I started looking at strength of schedule. Chiefs bottom 5, Bengals top 5. I do factor this in when trying to weight the data I'm looking at. It is very easy to look at data in aggregate and say this team is great in the pass, this team is bad at stopping the run, etc. The Chiefs schedule v. defenses is ranked 21st meaning they got to face softer defenses. Bengals, 3rd hardest. Again, not to say the Chiefs have a bad offense but I do consider this when understanding the data. Chiefs ranked 1st v. 21st schedule, Bengals ranked 4th v. 3rd hardest. Defensively Bengals are 11th in dvoa, Chiefs 17th (14th weighted). Bengals 5th hardest schedule, Chiefs 30th. What is the takeaway for me here? The Bengals have simply played more consistent, tougher competition than the Chiefs so naturally components of their metrics will appear lower. DVOA and other advanced analytics is meant to account for this but there is something to be said in it all.
Burrow v. injured Mahomes - wash
Head Coach - Chiefs
Run game - edge to Bengals. Mixon & Perine are a better duo
Bengals OL. They got away with it v. Bills because the Bills suck at getting to the QB with the front 4. The Chiefs are top 5 in ASR and this does worry me a bit. That said, Burrow has a high rating v. the blitz and pressure in general.... I do think this is going to be the largest factor that is really hard to cap against. Who knows how this OL will hold up but it is why I would play the Chiefs and I'm still thinking on it.
Beyond sack rate... The Bengals have surrendered the lowest QBR in NFL and the Chiefs are 24th. What I'd need to really dig into is what I mention above, in aggregate data is misleading. What QBs did the Bengals face? Tua and Lamar...and of course the game v. Mahomes. Flip side, the Chiefs did play better QBs but it is not night and day beyond Herbert. Some comparable QBs like Allen, Brady mixed in.
I don't like looking at past games or performances and say "Bengals won 3 so advantage". Alot changes always. These are two good head coaches. What I am very curious to see is without Tyreek Hill, in a game of this magnitude...how do the Chiefs perform? He is easily a top 3 WR in the NFL and while the Chiefs offense is still top 3 because of Mahomes... at some point not having that type of talent matters. How woudl the Bengals be without Chase? Clearly a drop off and even if you fill in with the likes of Toney, JuJu, etc.... still not a top 3 WR. Just something I keep thinking about.
Overall, who is going to win this game? Truly a coin flip to me and I may buy off the 6u opener a bit to land on 3u and let the teasers ride. Props I'm considering is alt lines for Higgins, Kelce, and Burrow rush yards.
Bengals...I think
Mentioned above I jumped on them +2.5 and teaser as I thought it could move plus unknown on Mahomes. It is safe to say Mahomes is not 100% but his 80% is still a top 5 QB so its just a distraction.
Getting into where I'm at with this is I started looking at strength of schedule. Chiefs bottom 5, Bengals top 5. I do factor this in when trying to weight the data I'm looking at. It is very easy to look at data in aggregate and say this team is great in the pass, this team is bad at stopping the run, etc. The Chiefs schedule v. defenses is ranked 21st meaning they got to face softer defenses. Bengals, 3rd hardest. Again, not to say the Chiefs have a bad offense but I do consider this when understanding the data. Chiefs ranked 1st v. 21st schedule, Bengals ranked 4th v. 3rd hardest. Defensively Bengals are 11th in dvoa, Chiefs 17th (14th weighted). Bengals 5th hardest schedule, Chiefs 30th. What is the takeaway for me here? The Bengals have simply played more consistent, tougher competition than the Chiefs so naturally components of their metrics will appear lower. DVOA and other advanced analytics is meant to account for this but there is something to be said in it all.
Burrow v. injured Mahomes - wash
Head Coach - Chiefs
Run game - edge to Bengals. Mixon & Perine are a better duo
Bengals OL. They got away with it v. Bills because the Bills suck at getting to the QB with the front 4. The Chiefs are top 5 in ASR and this does worry me a bit. That said, Burrow has a high rating v. the blitz and pressure in general.... I do think this is going to be the largest factor that is really hard to cap against. Who knows how this OL will hold up but it is why I would play the Chiefs and I'm still thinking on it.
Beyond sack rate... The Bengals have surrendered the lowest QBR in NFL and the Chiefs are 24th. What I'd need to really dig into is what I mention above, in aggregate data is misleading. What QBs did the Bengals face? Tua and Lamar...and of course the game v. Mahomes. Flip side, the Chiefs did play better QBs but it is not night and day beyond Herbert. Some comparable QBs like Allen, Brady mixed in.
I don't like looking at past games or performances and say "Bengals won 3 so advantage". Alot changes always. These are two good head coaches. What I am very curious to see is without Tyreek Hill, in a game of this magnitude...how do the Chiefs perform? He is easily a top 3 WR in the NFL and while the Chiefs offense is still top 3 because of Mahomes... at some point not having that type of talent matters. How woudl the Bengals be without Chase? Clearly a drop off and even if you fill in with the likes of Toney, JuJu, etc.... still not a top 3 WR. Just something I keep thinking about.
Overall, who is going to win this game? Truly a coin flip to me and I may buy off the 6u opener a bit to land on 3u and let the teasers ride. Props I'm considering is alt lines for Higgins, Kelce, and Burrow rush yards.
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