4.15

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
#42 Jackie Robinson

Lots and lots of rain here in NY. We all hate rainouts but there was zero chance of these games being played . Just a few early starts at 1 now.....

+8.33units
-0.57units
-24.80units
+17.00units
+15.90units(-0.75u)
-6.63units
+16.35units (-1.50u)
-3.75 units
+16.90units
+2.93 units (-1.00 u)
-2.92 units
+3.05 units
-4.65 units (-1.00u)
+35.55 units

1PM starts:

Blue Jays +115 {2.5units} ARL +190 {1/2unit} +2.38
Under 9 -140 Cle {1.5units} +1.50
White Sox +155 {2units} +1.5 RL -140 {2units} PUSH
Sox +150/ Under 9-140{1unit parlay} -1.00
Marlins +162 {1unit} +1.5RL -135 {2units} -3.70
Under 8.5 -120 ATL [2units} -2.40

Net -2.22 / -1.00 parlay

Notes:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>38</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>215.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>243</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>150</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>136</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>38</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>78</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>155</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.69</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.49</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.282</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>76</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>71</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>453.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>456</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>217</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>198</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>59</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>150</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>304</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.93</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.265</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Well the difference in Roberston in his career when pitching in day games and nite is WIDE. Less then 4ERA at nite and almost in 6 day starts. Well he did pitch well in his season opener vs TOR in the day but my opinion would be till we some significant change in this trend is that I would expect him to regress to these numbers. It also benefits TOR to see him twice in such a short period especially since his career starts have been avg vs tor. Key game for both as DET tries to win all 3 road series and Tor plays for the split with 2 tough losses already. Towers clearly one of my least favored pitchers how yo have to make decisions based on the now and not only past numbers especially with pitchers. Towers was okay vs KC he ran into a tough 6th inning but was decent through 5 innnings. There is no denying he will get hit. Lind can hit but he is facing a tough LH. DET only 229 vs RHP away....

Personally I havent been overly impressed with Sabathia so far. Contreras was awful the 1st time and I expect much closer to his 2nd start. Especially vs a watered down Tribe lineup. Look for low scoring affair here and the wind is strong there....just not putting such a high premium on Sabathia should be closer to -125 here IMO......


Down in ATL all based on SP. Hudson appears to be back and Olsen was at his best away last season where ATL is struggling vs LHs now.

BOL:cheers:
 
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BOL SportsNut :cheers:

Hate rainouts too. I really wanted to see the Mets kill the Nats and then change the channel to the Yanks when its all over. Guess I have to watch hockey until then. GRRRR
 
Sparky1019 said:
BOL SportsNut :cheers:

Hate rainouts too. I really wanted to see the Mets kill the Nats and then change the channel to the Yanks when its all over. Guess I have to watch hockey until then. GRRRR
Click to expand...

Not a big hockey fan so I might look at some hoops....though I kinda wished the Mets game happened but I was looking at Chico at the Nats..

Good Luck today!:cheers:
 
2 PM's

Add:

Cards +103 {3units} +3.09

Notes:

Probably a sucker taking the home dog here. Sheets has dropped 9 f his past 10 starts vs STL though. Neither team is hitting and I would argue Looper has been the better of the two SP early. Milw managed 5 hits yesterday and won...nothing in depth just when a team is 0-4 at home there is a definite feeling of needing to get that first W...

BOL:cheers:
 
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If the first innings are any indication I will be kicking myself for not playing the UND 10 @ Minny and Ov 7.5 @ Milw.....both have 5-3 written all over them.....big difference bewteen ponson vs Jackson and Bonser vs Seo....no balls today....
 
4 Pm starts

Add:

Under 8.5 -105 NYY {5units} -5.25
NYY -103 {5units} -5.15

Notes:

Basically the UND is a continuation play in the sense that after a long game where the bats where quiet expect that spill over into this game. Factor in two very good SP in Harden and Pettitte and its very logical as well. The A's have struggled vs LHP so far .218 and Bradley's absence is tough to overcome. Yanks ahve the momentum and tied at 1-1 they look to take the series. Harden has been so-so in his previous outings vs NY. Looking for another 4-3 game.....


BOL:cheers: Working on the TEX game still
 
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Seattle vs Texas

Add:

Rangers +100 {2.5units} ARL -1.5 +160 {1/2unit}-2.5RL +240{1/2unit} -3.50
Under 4.5 -120 Sea team {2.5units} -3.00
Under 9 +100 {2units} -2.00

Wow..what a waste....not even close but I will happily admit to being wrong by backing McCarthy on the road as basically road chalk...unwise move.


Short on time much like the fade of nate Roberston here. Ramirez was awful in his Sea debit vs Bryrd that was snowed out. Granted it was on teh road but his career DAY era is 5.50 vs 3.71.....

Looking at 5-3 hoping for 5-2

BOL:cheers:
 
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Shit slips my mind so much.....I had a great prop ...1st Inning score @ Oakland -105...hit it for 2 units...they were telling you they felt strongly about that with that price...
 
The Desert

Add:

Rockies +140 {2.5units} ARL +200 {1unit} -3.50
Over 9.5 +100 {4units} +4.00
Over 4.5 -105 Col team {2units} -2.10

Notes:

Kim gets the spot start vs Zona thanks to Francis suspension. I think there will be runs scored at best Kim goes 6 innings and allows 3 runs. he however is asking to be traded so this an audition and he wants to start. His track record as a visitor in Zona has been shaky but his last outing was his best at the end of 2006. Dvais has struggled with command and escaped jams. The Rockies were OVER team last year on the road facing a LHP. Love getting Jeff Baker in the lineup. Basicaly not expecting much from either SP here but think Kims chances are better....

BOL:cheers:
 
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WTF...Under *** oh well Guess Riveras not what he used to be that guy that hit the homer had a .51 average.
 
Wow....the worst beat I took all season....Mo giving up a 3run HR to the bum Scutaro...just keep the ball down he can only get it out if its up ....so silly...thats just an awful beat OAK's offense stinks and again rewarded for taking a team based on SP...irks the shit out of me......maybe I get lucky with Harden getting knocked out but I still split with UND.....that just took the heart out of me like I said Good Luck would be scary for my P&L.......I had that game at 4-3 and its 4-2 with 1 strike to go....and my writeup for LADwell whose in the mood now...awful feeling to be so right and not rewarded.....:moose:


LAD +108 {5units}+5.40
Young streak is a big exaggeration IMO. The Pods much like OAK just dont have much offense and with Bard down they lose there best bat vs LH. Which was already weakened with Barfields and Piazza depature in the offseason. There 2 best hitters are both LH Gonzo and B.Giles. While Gonzo hit 312 we saw Giles at just 217. Wolf has been solid so far nothing spectular just respectable...Naturally you have LAD on Jackie Robinson Day you would help that serves as further motivation. Ethier hit well vs Young last year in limited atbats. Young doesnt hold runners on at all and if he walks guys at the same rate vs LAD this tear 16 in 30 innings he will be in trouble here. Difference last nite was Schimdt was hurt so I understand with a guy throwing excellent that SD was favored...here not so high on Young in this particular situation cause speed kills and it could be hige tonite Furcal/Pierre....I owuld expect SD at 3 runs or less....

BOL:cheers:
 
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Troutman said:
WTF...Under *** oh well Guess Riveras not what he used to be that guy that hit the homer had a .51 average.
Click to expand...

Its one pitch bro....how could you say Mo's not the same..he allowed 1 hit in 4 innings before today.....he wasnt sharp and made a mistake its still just 2 weeks into the season...it sucked but knocking Rivera is just an overreaction....
 
Yeah, I guess, but he singlehandly put those two guys and then threw some meat down the pipe for a walk off from a guy hitting ninth with a .51 avg...Thats all, single, walk, homerun, it just cost me a four unit shift, to me its just frustrating but thats how it goes sometimes..won a few times like that too..:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Shit slips my mind so much.....I had a great prop ...1st Inning score @ Oakland -105...hit it for 2 units...they were telling you they felt strongly about that with that price...
Click to expand...

SN,
Do you play these often? Is there anything you look for in particular when playing these?

Also, curious if you ever play, or find value in playing 1st 5 inning lines? I don't recall you ever posting any? For example, if that KC v. BAlt. game would have been played today, I would have been more comfortable playing the 1st 5 innings due to KC's crap bullpen. Just my thoughts. Thanks and GL.
 
He was definetly not on today. Which is why Posada should not being calling a pitch up and in ..yeah it sucks....just one of these things...its April though and this shit happens..just never positively for me....destroyed my afternoon....it was all he could do hit a HR down the leftfield line...though I agree he should literally just laid it over the middle to Kendall wonder if he had some back issues cause he was so stiff......
 
JRose5 said:
SN,
Do you play these often? Is there anything you look for in particular when playing these?

Also, curious if you ever play, or find value in playing 1st 5 inning lines? I don't recall you ever posting any? For example, if that KC v. BAlt. game would have been played today, I would have been more comfortable playing the 1st 5 innings due to KC's crap bullpen. Just my thoughts. Thanks and GL.
Click to expand...

Not really was looking at some things @ BoDog and it stuck out. With how Pettitte is throwing and Harden on the hill had expected closer to -140 Under not -120. I wont say Props have more traps( dont believe the trap theory) but they definetly are looking to entice a certain bet IMO on most of them.

I used to do the 1st 5 Inning thing. Now I would only do it for a huge dog. Really its just pure gambling. I dont bet based on SP alone so I no longer see the value in them longterm. I basically have some sort of game plan for how the game will go. How many runs each side will score and such, how long the SP is around....with Grienke you know he is probably going 7 innings on most nites so the pen wouldnt be a huge concern. You have to look at like its not the pen that so much the concern as its what your asking it to do. In yesterdays Perez struggled he left the game I believe he jams in the 2nd ,3rd and 5th. Walking the tight rope so to speak the better team given repated chances will eventual succeed in all sports. The 6th the 1st two guys reached so he was pulled. When the pen is weak you have to ask it do less. Not come in with no out 2 MOB and succeed then get 9 more outs...over the long haul it wont happen. So if you cut it down to getting 6 outs and maybe favorable matchups. They have some guys who have done well. Riske blew that one game but he was solid b4 them..Soria is a sleeper now.. You just have to weigh the whole equation...you can say the pen lost it yesterday or you could say that 4 runs wasnt gonna win them the game..I didnt think KC would crack 4 runs and was comfortable O's did...to me just stick to the game wagers and start mapping out what will happen...get comfortable making numbers of runs the teams involved will score...
 
I am seeing the Anaheim Boston game now at 7.00 am tomorrow. We are talking super early so day splits become massive. Any early thooughts on the effects of this?
 
Thanks Believe..after the Yankee game I dont even care to be honest....I hope they win so I am right and For Jackie but otherwise its of no interest now...
 
tuck321 said:
I am seeing the Anaheim Boston game now at 7.00 am tomorrow. We are talking super early so day splits become massive. Any early thooughts on the effects of this?
Click to expand...

Boston Marathon tmrw....the weather is so shaky right now its not even worth the effort....clearly a bad spot for LAA though....

Monday's contest is scheduled for a 10:05 a.m. local start because of the Boston Marathon, but since the forecast looks just as poor for Monday, that time was being reconsidered Sunday night.
 
Thanks a lot. Good stuff, as always. Yes, from what I have seen of Soria so far, he has looked good. Peralta is hit and miss. Gobble, I don't trust much. Wellemyer and Duckworth (I know he's a starter), but has anybody seen these two in the same place at the same time? Etc. GL .
 
With pitchers especially when they are going good give them the benefit of the doubt in two ways. If they have proven over the long term to be certain type of pitcher but are exceeding expectations dont guess when they will regress just ride them when they are hot and fade them once they get cold. With the Gobble's and Duckworth guys who were supposed to be and have become never beens...give them a clear slate. Gobble maybe can do the situational LH thing rather then starting. Duckworth as mentioned is supposedly throwing mid 90-. Jis whole carer has been the same storty solid at home but awful. Still young enough maybe he can be come a dependable pitcher. Though he wasnt bad at Camden still not good enough though. Like yesterday I backed Schilling believing that Carrasaco would pitch well... Wellenmeyer doesnt seem ML ready and Peralta is back end of the pen guy.

add..
Over 3.5 -130 LAD {2units} +2.00
Under 4 -115 SD [2units} +2.00
LAD -1.5 +175 {1unit} +1.75

BOL:cheers:
 
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Hmmm 19 LOB on through 5 innings can you see the writing on the wall....the momentum slowy continues to sway to SD with each rally that falls short.....this game should be in the books already instead SD is hanging around and that is always dangerous and never good news....

how bout Youngs command those SB's..
 
After all the BS today to be down -8.48 units & -1. ML parlay is acceptable I guess....had that LAD game on lock down... Lose 20.40 units on one swing on all things Jackie Robinson day to the last guy wearing it, Col cant muster 1 more run after the 3rd inning cost me about a 4.10 unit swing and Tribe gets 1 hit and loses that cost me a bunch and I fucked up the SEA game...
 
A lot of the good cappers I read across boards were on Texas today, as well. Crap Yankees game. That Royals/Tigers under looks pretty good. Detroit is pretty expensive, though. Royals +1.5 might be worth a look. Good luck tomorrow.
 
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