2023-24 BOWL GUIDE

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
Last 8 bowl seasons 183-105
* one unit plays 73-29
* smaller 110-76

2023 reg season 130-112
* one unit 46-42
* smaller 84-70
> 1H 16-16
> 2H/live 15-4



one unit

Wyoming -1'
Boise +2/3
Auburn -1'
NW +7'
Hokies -4'
Fla St +14'
UTSA -8'
SJSU -9
OU +3'
AF +3'
Okie St +3
Rice +5
Iowa St -5 live

smaller

Iowa +7'
Wisky +10'
WVirg -3
Rutgers +3'
Ga St -2'
USF +3'
Miami, O +7
Boise / UCLA 1H under 24
A Jeanty over 25.5 receiving
J Ott over 104 rushing
D Pavia over 47.5 rushing
R Amos over 85 rushing
NMSU -1/2 2H
Byrum Brown over 45 rushing
Cuse/ USF 1H under 28
GT +6'
Jamal Haynes over 86' rushing
NIU +3
SJSU -3' 2H
Kansas -7 1H
Darius Taylor over 106 rushing
Minny -1
USC +7
SMU / BC 1H under 24
Mizzou +6
Ray Davis over 64' rushing
Silas Bolden over 58 receiving
PSU / Ole Miss 1H under 25
Bama ML
T Mordecai over 28' rushing
JJ McCarthy over 13' rushing
Washington +4
R Odunze over 98 receiving
M Penix over 37' attempts
Iowa TT over 13'
Michigan -2' 1H
M Penix OVER rushing (if it pops up)
B Corum OVER 2TD's (+120)
Polk OVER 53' receiving
Westover OVER 28' receiving
JJ over 201' passing
Penix TD (+350)
Washington +6

ML

1.0
Bama

0.75
AF
OU

0.50
GASO
Okie St
Rutgers
RICE

0.25
Miami, O
Boise
Wash
GT
USF
NW
NIU

010
BG
NCST
Beavs
Fla St ha
Iowa haha


* to simplify - I'll list as if I didn't make a side play already - meaning say I've already played Miami, O +7 for 1 unit - I think they win SU so I might also play them small on the ML. I'll list a bit higher here, as if it were a standing alone play. NOTE some are favorites, that I like to win - maybe not cover



leans/waiting

LOUISVILLE
Boston College
*Oregon State*
Penn St
Liberty 1H? >
Ducks live/2H
GASO?
NIU



Irish / Beavs a great example of profitable bowl strategy ....
>> Irish are the obvious choice right? - BUT you're telling me the SUN BOWL is where the Irish wanted to be? What this means is that their bowl prep will be total, absolute shit. Beav situation is chaotic sure - but they're playing NOTRE DAME. They should be at a serious athletic disadvantage but will play their ass off, and getting (13/14 probably) in a meaningless bowl.

What I try and do - is restrict one unit plays to those with the motivational edge - the team that is clearly there to win. This game is HUGE for them, not so much for their opponent. I may like a play a lot, but if I don't see a strong motivational edge, I make it a smaller play. Looking back, my losses have been when I stray from this strategy.


Will have much more later, but for now recall;
>> pick the SU winner, esp. in early games - spread matters more in later games - so don't get in a hurry to grab early lines - unless you're confident who is gonna coach and play! Note I like to guess myself - but this is not recommended ha. Play the shorter dog, and a few big ones on the ML, esp in the early games. Don't have the updated numbers, but typically dogs win about 25% during the regular season / 35-40% in bowls.


All the best this holiday season boys ........ :shake: :shake:
 
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BIG PICTURE


Where did this team want to be, when the season began?
* have their goals been met?
* or, is their more work to be done?
>> has their story, been written?

KEY : is the quality of their PREPARATION > you play like you practice


FACTORS TO CONSIDER

1) State / direction of the program-
* getting better or worse?
* does this game matter?

2) HC's bowl history?
* FACT - some don't care about winning - they like the extra work
* some use it as a vacation/reward

3) who will be available?
* is the HC likely to leave?

4) What happened in their last bowl game?
* a huge W, or get blown out?
>> imagine your friends/family travel to see you play and you get embarrassed ...
* I like to use Steele - recent bowl history is right there, along with big picture stuff.

5) Travel / crowd edge
* weather issues too - eg, warm weather school to cold
* actual number of practice days - finals interfering?
* LONG bus ride to save money?

6) MATCHUP issues
* defense has the edge after a long layoff
* watch out for teams that have turned the ball over
* ST / FP edges can make a big difference


IDEAS / STRATEGY


1) JUST PICK THE WINNER
* SU winner usually covers in bowls - esp. in the early games
>> play the dog on the ML

2) FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
* in bowls it is more profitable to follow - not fade

3) BE AWARE OF A TEAM'S HIGHS/LOWS
* often a team that finished strong IS DONE - their goals have been met
* while a team that struggled late - may use the bowl to save their season (Air Force?)
* fade or avoid the BURST BUBBLE TEAM

4) A TEAM IS READY TO PLAY OR IT AIN'T
* almost never - does a team 'find it' once the game begins
>> especially in the early games
$$ unless a dominant QB - playing his last game

5) INTERIM COACHES HAVEN'T MATTERED MUCH
* even become a 'play on' team as of late

6) PLAY TEAMS THAT WON THEIR 6TH THE LAST GAME
* about a 70% play recently - 74% is stunk the year before

7) FADE THE BOWL VIRGIN
* 1st bowl ever, or in a long while, usually means it's a reward - vacation

8) "WHO WANTS IT MORE?"
>> don't get bogged down with all this crap - they are just tools in your toolbox
$ always go back to this
 
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WHO NEEDS A BOWL W?
>> without regard to matchup

REALLY IMPORTANT

Mizzou - HC no BW
Ga Tech- 2016 LBW
Va Tech - 2016 LBW
RICE - 2014 LBW
SMU - 2012 LBW
Auburn - lost L3
Miami, F - 2016 LBW
SJSU - 0-2 under great HC
MICHIGAN - they have stunk under JH in bowls
WVirg - off a great year - can't lose
Iowa St - improving - must win
OU - need a W
Ark St- BJ fine bowl coach - need to win here
TT- BAD year - need W
S ALA- off horrible BL - need a good showing



WIN WOULD BE A NICE BOOST
* loss wouldn't make a ton of difference

BCollege
ZONA - keep MO going
Rutgers
NW
USC
Clemson - need to keep MO going
Kansas - no BW under great HC
UCF
Texas St =- great year - need W
Wisky - need W off horrible year
Ga St - flaky team needs to finish strong (vs WEAK D in USU)
UNLV - off bad loss - need to keep MO going



WIN WOULDN'T HURT

Ole Miss - LK has stunk in bowls
N Caro - Mack has lost L3
NCST - DD stinks in bowls
N Illinois - horrible in bowls
UTAH WTF - great bowl team has stunk - lost L4
Kentucky -bad year / finished well - lost 21-0 to Iowa LY
Kan St - smoked by Bama LY
GASO



SOLID BOWL TEAMS

Wyoming
Miami,O
TROY
WKU
Ga St
FRESNO
NMSU
Memphis




EMBARRASSED IN LAST YEAR'S BOWL

Wazzu
S Ala
CCaro
UCF
Ole Miss
Clemson
Michigan
Kentucky


DISAPPOINTING / CLOSE LOSS LAST YEAR

UTSA
Miami,O
RICE
SMU
Liberty
ULL
Mizzou
BGreen
Okie St
N Caro
Kansas
Texas
OU
Utah
WYO


FAT / HAPPY W's LAST YEAR

TROY
Oreg St
Fresno
EMU !!!
TTech
Terps
WKU
Duke



** all extremely subjective of course - just notes that suit my regression style - feel free to add your own ideas
>> huge W LY - might relax TY - got killed - might play harder TY.
eg. my team EMU (largest bet LY) - finally won a bowl game, after several years of tough close losses -I would expect a letdown this year....
 
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This is great stuff BA!

I'm biased when I say that though because I'm shaking my head in agreement with basically everything you say from a strategy standpoint. Not sure if this is good news for you or not, but I believe we think very much alike on this stuff.
 
Br@ssknux said:
This is great stuff BA!

I'm biased when I say that though because I'm shaking my head in agreement with basically everything you say from a strategy standpoint. Not sure if this is good news for you or not, but I believe we think very much alike on this stuff.
Click to expand...
thanks man BOL :shake:

The key to capping bowls is moving away from - asking yourself how much a team 'cares' - to 'is this where they wanted to be' ......

A BINARY way of thinking is the culprit - as it is in understanding most any issue.
eg, "So you're telling me that Georgia doesn't care about playing in the Orange Bowl!!!!!?"
> the quality of their preparation will be much different, than what if would be if they made the playoffs. FACT. It is literally impossible for the human brain to flip a switch - and 'overrule' our subconscious... :cool:
 
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I've talked myself into this one - probably should be a smaller play only....

Georgia will get minimal quality practice time, if ANY. They might be able to just show up and win sure. But by more than 14, in a low scoring game?

Fla St +14'
 
bumping up UTSA....

Deeper dive on THE HERD - really stunk on the road this year - thought they were a better bowl team (recently nope) - great spot with nice crowd edge (+ me)
 
bookieassassin said:
WHO NEEDS A BOWL W?
>> without regard to matchup

REALLY IMPORTANT

Mizzou - HC no BW
Ga Tech- 2016 LBW
Va Tech - 2016 LBW
RICE - 2014 LBW
SMU - 2012 LBW
Auburn - lost L3
Miami, F - 2016 LBW
SJSU - 0-2 under great HC
MICHIGAN - they have stunk under JH in bowls
WVirg - off a great year - can't lose
Iowa St - improving - must win
OU - need a W
Ark St- BJ fine bowl coach - need to win here
TT- BAD year - need W
S ALA- off horrible BL - need a good showing



WIN WOULD BE A NICE BOOST
* loss wouldn't make a ton of difference

BCollege
ZONA - keep MO going
Rutgers
NW
USC
Clemson - need to keep MO going
Kansas - no BW under great HC
UCF
Texas St =- great year - need W
Wisky - need W off horrible year
Ga St - flaky team needs to finish strong (vs WEAK D in USU)
UNLV - off bad loss - need to keep MO going



WIN WOULDN'T HURT

Ole Miss - LF has stunk in bowls
N Caro - Mack has lost L3
NCST - DD stinks in bowls
N Illinois - horrible in bowls
UTAH WTF - great bowl team has stunk - lost L4
Kentucky -bad year / finished well - lost 21-0 to Iowa LY
Kan St - smoked by Bama LY
GASO



SOLID BOWL TEAMS

Wyoming
Miami,O
TROY
WKU
Ga St
FRESNO
NMSU
Memphis




EMBARRASSED IN LAST YEAR'S BOWL

Wazzu
S Ala
CCaro
UCF
Ole Miss
Clemson
Michigan
Kentucky


DISAPPOINTING / CLOSE LOSS LAST YEAR

UTSA
Miami,O
RICE
SMU
Liberty
ULL
Mizzou
BGreen
Okie St
N Caro
Kansas
Texas
OU
Utah
WYO


FAT / HAPPY W's LAST YEAR

TROY
Oreg St
Fresno
EMU !!!
TTech
Terps
WKU
Duke



** all extremely subjective of course - just notes that suit my regression style - feel free to add your own ideas
>> huge W LY - might relax TY - got killed - might play harder TY.
eg. my team EMU (largest bet LY) - finally won a bowl game, after several years of tough close losses -I would expect a letdown this year....
Click to expand...
Good Lord buddy….this is awesome thank you.
 
large play

WYOMING -1'

* Wyoming HC Bohl announced his retirement (after game) - great coach that prepares his team well for postseason vs one of the worst coaches that does not (1-4/0-5).
Toledo did win LY vs Liberty (interim HC) - but tried to lose, only to come back and win late - largely due to Flame mistakes. AND Rocket's best player (QB Finn) is in the portal, likely to be followed by more. Rockets are the most talented here (SP+ -8') - but should get hammered. Even better - Cowboys played in this same bowl last year and lost to Zona (played well).
>> this one should close at a TD or so - 2 most spots - 1' at Heritage.

WINNERS - play it now before it hits 3 - you crazy Eyetalian bastard ......:cowboy:
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
BA- Still like Boise with their QB Green hitting the portal? He said he might stay at Boise though.....
Click to expand...

sure - betcha he plays anyway - he would need a strong showing here to build interest I would think? .... probably would hold off until I could get 3 at this point tho - I don't think UCLA even gets off the bus here.
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
ny K St/NCSt thoughts? Wildcats losing lots of random pieces from coaching....off.....def....
Click to expand...

Not allowed thoughts on this one I'm afraid > love KSU, can't stand flaky NCST (a terrible away dog) ....

BUT - UNDER would make a lot of sense - NCST getting 3+ would maybe as well
>> what I wouldn't like about fading KSU here? - they got destroyed LY vs Bama - and lost their last game this year vs Iowa St - QB and RB were gonna lose their jobs anyway, a few of their great players may/may not play. I would play the under if anything, or just play NCST on the ML if you like 'em before line drops.
 
smaller

Air Force +3

I think JMU has achieved their goal - now they're in the ARMED FORCES BOWL laying points to Air Force? Best players in the portal - HC gone - but all portal guys will still play - wut?

Off a terrible finish - GUESSING AF gets their QB back here - would be surprised if they lost this one, but I've not had much luck fading JMU for sure.....
 
I haven’t read each post but has anyone mentioned SMU is going to Fenway as an 11pt favorite to play BC with an 8AM kickoff? Can’t see how I won’t be dabbling on the ML. Also, Miami Criminal U goes to the frigid tundra of Yankee Stadium as a 2.5pt favorite vs Rutgers.
It would seem that both dogs can win outright.
 
wiseplayer said:
I haven’t read each post but has anyone mentioned SMU is going to Fenway as an 11pt favorite to play BC with an 8AM kickoff? Can’t see how I won’t be dabbling on the ML. Also, Miami Criminal U goes to the frigid tundra of Yankee Stadium as a 2.5pt favorite vs Rutgers.
It would seem that both dogs can win outright.
Click to expand...

On Rutgers myself - strong lean BC for sure, they need a strong bowl game here / waiting on opt outs and how high line goes
>> Ponies have to be disappointed - they deserved much better than this - can't see a big effort here - plus they haven't done well in bowls...
 
bookieassassin said:
On Rutgers myself - strong lean BC for sure, they need a strong bowl game here / waiting on opt outs and how high line goes
>> Ponies have to be disappointed - they deserved much better than this - can't see a big effort here - plus they haven't done well in bowls...
Click to expand...
I’m hearing Miami could have a few key players out. We’ll see.
 
“> pick the SU winner, esp. in early games - spread matters more in later games - so don't get in a hurry to grab early lines - unless you're confident who is gonna coach and play! Note I like to guess myself - but this is not recommended ha. Play the shorter dog, and a few big ones on the ML, esp in the early games. Don't have the updated numbers, but typically dogs win about 25% during the regular season / 35-40% in bowls. ”
:shake: I read this 3 times… wise
 
bookieassassin said:
Not allowed thoughts on this one I'm afraid > love KSU, can't stand flaky NCST (a terrible away dog) ....

BUT - UNDER would make a lot of sense - NCST getting 3+ would maybe as well
>> what I wouldn't like about fading KSU here? - they got destroyed LY vs Bama - and lost their last game this year vs Iowa St - QB and RB were gonna lose their jobs anyway, a few of their great players may/may not play. I would play the under if anything, or just play NCST on the ML if you like 'em before line drops.
Click to expand...
First ever K-State bowl game in the state of Florida. Should have our usual strong traveling support.

Entire fan base is fired up to finally hand the keys to the offense to true frosh #5 Avery Johnson. Kid is electric. NC St defense will be a good challenge.
 
aplous said:
First ever K-State bowl game in the state of Florida. Should have our usual strong traveling support.

Entire fan base is fired up to finally hand the keys to the offense to true frosh #5 Avery Johnson. Kid is electric. NC St defense will be a good challenge.
Click to expand...

I would expect NCST money - I might hit KSU at <3
 
bookieassassin said:
smaller

UTSA -8'

* It appears HC will stay, Uncle Frank will play his final game finally for UTSA - who has never won a bowl game. Might add to it, depending on Herd opt outs (RB Ali)
Click to expand...

Was it Marshall against UConn last year? Man they didn’t look good or into that bowl. Felt lucky to cover!
 
bookieassassin said:
smaller

Air Force +3

I think JMU has achieved their goal - now they're in the ARMED FORCES BOWL laying points to Air Force? Best players in the portal - HC gone - but all portal guys will still play - wut?

Off a terrible finish - GUESSING AF gets their QB back here - would be surprised if they lost this one, but I've not had much luck fading JMU for sure.....
Click to expand...

Is Zach is back at QB this team will be fired up!
 
bookieassassin said:
large play

WYOMING -1'

* Wyoming HC Bohl announced his retirement (after game) - great coach that prepares his team well for postseason vs one of the worst coaches that does not (1-4/0-5).
Toledo did win LY vs Liberty (interim HC) - but tried to lose, only to come back and win late - largely due to Flame mistakes. AND Rocket's best player (QB Finn) is in the portal, likely to be followed by more. Rockets are the most talented here (SP+ -8') - but should get hammered. Even better - Cowboys played in this same bowl last year and lost to Zona (played well).
>> this one should close at a TD or so - 2 most spots - 1' at Heritage.

WINNERS - play it now before it hits 3 - you crazy Eyetalian bastard ......:cowboy:
Click to expand...

Toledo will lose this game!
 
Out of the one unit plays, which do you feel most strong about? In a confidence bowl pool and would love you know your tops.
 
Baylor over UNC 2015. My favorite BA bowl play of all time! 645 rushing yards for the Bears. What a great call!

Thanks for the insights, and best of luck this year
 
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bookieassassin said:
large play

WYOMING -1'

* Wyoming HC Bohl announced his retirement (after game) - great coach that prepares his team well for postseason vs one of the worst coaches that does not (1-4/0-5).
Toledo did win LY vs Liberty (interim HC) - but tried to lose, only to come back and win late - largely due to Flame mistakes. AND Rocket's best player (QB Finn) is in the portal, likely to be followed by more. Rockets are the most talented here (SP+ -8') - but should get hammered. Even better - Cowboys played in this same bowl last year and lost to Zona (played well).
>> this one should close at a TD or so - 2 most spots - 1' at Heritage.

WINNERS - play it now before it hits 3 - you crazy Eyetalian bastard ......:cowboy:
Click to expand...

Probably one of my favorite bowl bets, I'll be on the ML. Gl BA
 
wiseplayer said:
Looks like Ohio Bobcats offense is in a world of hurt for their Bowl. Enough to take them off the board.
Click to expand...

No doubt - but the only problem here is the OTHER SIDE ha >> Ga Southern ..... a turnover machine that plays no D. Ohio is tough as hell in bowls - Clay Helton teams ? poor so far.

GS did destroy Ball State on the road - but they were off Georgia and Kentucky - probably beat up.

I leaned GS initially as a dog (Sun Belt vs MAC) - and would have to still - they really need a W here. But I couldn't lay 3+ right now. I would wait to see what the line does - and get a better feel for which team will come to play. Who TF knows, maybe GS QB sits out too.....

Still - I wouldn't play GS anything but small at <3 .....or a live play as dog maybe. Can definitely see Ohio getting up early.
 
bookieassassin said:
No doubt - but the only problem here is the OTHER SIDE ha >> Ga Southern ..... a turnover machine that plays no D. Ohio is tough as hell in bowls - Clay Helton teams ? poor so far.

GS did destroy Ball State on the road - but they were off Georgia and Kentucky - probably beat up.

I leaned GS initially as a dog (Sun Belt vs MAC) - and would have to still - they really need a W here. But I couldn't lay 3+ right now. I would wait to see what the line does - and get a better feel for which team will come to play. Who TF knows, maybe GS QB sits out too.....

Still - I wouldn't play GS anything but small at <3 .....or a live play as dog maybe. Can definitely see Ohio getting up early.
Click to expand...
Teasing this one 13pts is what I’m thinking.
 
wiseplayer said:
Teasing this one 13pts is what I’m thinking.
Click to expand...

Nothing wrong with a small / degenerate / perverted teaser just for laughs - but never tease a high variance team that plays no D ...... and if you do - never admit it publicly ha - if you've got a strong hunch, just play 'em ML, maybe combine with another in a parlay

this one is + money

Georgia Southern
-167

UTSA
-345

or ++ money with another(s) same type line
NMSU - Jax St .....
 
Jhoss003 said:
Out of the one unit plays, which do you feel most strong about? In a confidence bowl pool and would love you know your tops.
Click to expand...

man you always ax the tough questions ha

GTTH

Auburn > Wyoming > SJSU > UTSA > Hokies > NW > Boise > FSU


ESPN type confidence
* man that type is tough this year

No way in hell
* Ducks

Extremely slim
* SJSU - UTSA - KU - S ALA -Irish - Georgia -

Doubtful
* Iowa St - SMU - LSU - Clemson - Louisville - VTech

Might lose sure, but I don't think so
* Wyoming - Auburn - NMSU - Boise - TTech - AIR FORCE -Troy - WV - Jax St

55/45
* ODU - GASO - Kan St - Penn St - UCF - Vols

51/50
* Mizzou - Rice - Bama - Penn St

Who TF knows
* Ga St - NW - OU - BG - Wash - USF - Rutgers - Okie St - NIU? - Mia, O?

Haven't finalized - just a very rough draft
 
bookieassassin said:
man you always ax the tough questions ha

GTTH

Auburn > Wyoming > SJSU > UTSA > Hokies > NW > Boise > FSU


ESPN type confidence
* man that type is tough this year

No way in hell
* Ducks

Extremely slim
* SJSU - UTSA - KU - S ALA -Irish - Georgia -

Doubtful
* Iowa St - SMU - LSU - Clemson - Louisville - VTech

Might lose sure, but I don't think so
* Wyoming - Auburn - NMSU - Boise - TTech - AIR FORCE -Troy - WV - Jax St

55/45
* ODU - GASO - Kan St - Penn St - UCF - Vols

51/50
* Mizzou - Rice - Bama - Penn St

Who TF knows
* Ga St - NW - OU - BG - Wash - USF - Rutgers - Okie St - NIU? - Mia, O?

Haven't finalized - just a very rough draft
Click to expand...
Greatly appreciate the response! Always over delivering! God bless , BA. Happy holidays to you and yours. Hope you sweep the board.
 
I think Bachmeier is the one to WF - so TG is still jacking around ....

I think the KEY here will be UCLA's willingness to tackle that Ashton Jeanty for 4Q ..... I'll be on his rushing/ receiving props. Supposedly true Fr QB Tiller can play, shouldn't have to do much here.
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Whats the scoop? Was leaning Zona.....I assume they are the squad excited to be there.....OU obviously with Gabriel out as well as some other offensive pieces.
Click to expand...


Go back to the 'rules' ..........:cool:

'Excited' ain't really how you look at it - Zona's season (really) ended with the blow out W over their rival ASU - there is nothing left to prove / no more work to do. This one is anticlimactic.....a reward for an unbelievable season > time to get drunk / chase ass, enjoy that overrated Riverwalk ..... (not bad at XMas really ha)

OU? - in the 2nd year under Venables - this one is a MUST WIN - practices will be intense - crowd will be 90/10 OU. Venables knows how to prepare a team for bowls - recall almost beat Fla St LY with a crap team. A loss here would be crushing, off a 10-2 season. Players might not care much - COACHES WILL FORCE THEM TO CARE. They know they give a crap effort here - they're gonna get punished in the off-season ha.

Small play only probably - depends on Zona opt outs. Plus who TF knows, maybe that Fisch has 'em ready to play
 
With the news that LB Stutsman and DB Bowman are returning - bumping up OU ...... talked myself into 'em

Probably will Air Force too - QB returning is huge for them - loss of line value when he's announced as playing won't mean much IMO
>> my HUNCH is he plays, and many of JMU's portal players change their minds - all they wanted to do is make a bowl, and should be in a better one - they would kill Liberty
 
bookieassassin said:
I think Bachmeier is the one to WF - so TG is still jacking around ....

I think the KEY here will be UCLA's willingness to tackle that Ashton Jeanty for 4Q ..... I'll be on his rushing/ receiving props. Supposedly true Fr QB Tiller can play, shouldn't have to do much here.
Click to expand...
Looks like Green has committed to Arkansas now. I'm not sure how that game is going to play out at this point. UCLA staying in LA can't be really thrilled, not even sure if they care that it could be Chip's final game there.
 
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