WEEK 10

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit


smaller

PITT +7'
Vandy +7 W
Penn St +3' L
Hogs +8 L
UTSA +7' W

small

New Mexico -6'
UConn -7 T
Sparty +7'
Indy / Sparty UNDER 51'
Tulane -4 3Q W
Okie St +5

tiny

Indy -1 4Q W
Va Tech -0.5 2Q L
ULL/TXST 4Q UNDER 14' W
La Tech +3' 2Q W
SH -3 3Q W
NMSU +4 1Q W
TXST ML 3Q W
Jax St ML 3Q W
Liberty -0.5 4Q (+117) L
WKU -4 4Q L
ULM +3' 2Q W
Cuse ML 3Q W
Army -6 3Q W
USF ML 4Q W
Mich/Ducks UNDER 10 3Q T
SCaro +0.5 1Q W
Cuse -0.5 2H W



leans
*updated Fri

OU
SCaro >3/ML
Duke >20' / 1H
GASO >6'
App St?
TTech
Army<21
Wash >3
Buffalo
OSU/PSU under
Okie St ??
EMU >10 / 1H-Q
 
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Haven't studied enough, or larger play - but Ponies will be lucky to survive this one (bye next). Really beat up at WR and RB....recall best player TE Maryland is OFY. what;s killed them in the past is TO / mistakes / poor ST play. They reverted back to their old ways last week - Pitt is a good team to take advantage :
#6 ST - #19 havoc - #22 sack % - #7 TFL - #2 passes defended. Pitt #20 RZ O vs SMU #121 RZ D.
>> note Pitt QB left game LW (THURS extra rest) - is supposedly OK ????? (Narduzzi said he just had dirt in his eye haha)

At this point Vandy as a dog has to be auto play right? - man they're unbelievable.

I love New Mexico for some reason - have been waiting for a chance to play those dogs - check their box scores - they move the ball like crazy - Problem? - D doesn't bother to even go on the field ....... but how does Wyoming keep up?

UConn on the last game of a SIX GAME HOMESTAND - Friday nite game should roll here? - Ga St in weird spot - @ App St / @ JMU - line should probably be > 8/9 (SP+ -18)

As a regression style / spot capper - gotta fade Indy off THAT win (small at least). Sparty run D is solid - a major issue here tho is finishing drives for Sparty (O and D). Sparty D and ST should/could keep them in this one (#29 - #15 / SP+). Sparty D is solid at preventing explosive plays (#18 rush/#55 pass). Should be low scoring game , so 7' is a lot .........
 
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Don't think Indy is in a bad spot....they were down a man and were still supposed to win....they handled business wire to wire....Sparty on the other hand was in a dogfight with their biggest rival and choked at the end/2nd H....I see no reason Hoosiers don't win by dd again
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Don't think Indy is in a bad spot....they were down a man and were still supposed to win....they handled business wire to wire....Sparty on the other hand was in a dogfight with their biggest rival and choked at the end/2nd H....I see no reason Hoosiers don't win by dd again
Click to expand...
If Rourke plays- can’t play Sparty

But IU was pretty fortunate vs Washington. Pick 6. Wash had 4 trips inside IU 40 with 0 points. Was outgained too.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Don't think Indy is in a bad spot....they were down a man and were still supposed to win....they handled business wire to wire....Sparty on the other hand was in a dogfight with their biggest rival and choked at the end/2nd H....I see no reason Hoosiers don't win by dd again
Click to expand...

Don't think Indy is (necessarily) in a bad spot
>> fixed it for ya < always annoying when people do that ha

REGRESSION / human nature - the SPOT is tough. GAMEDAY crowd - one of the biggest games in school history - team gave great effort to make up for the loss of their QB (hence my PLAY ON Indy). NOW on the road FAVORED vs a team building an identity under a new great HC - that so happens matches up well with what they do offensively - they're a heavy running team (with backup QB).

Plus that's what you do when a key player is out - play ON the first game - look to fade the next (based on spot). Sparty has a BYE on deck (Indy has MICHIGAN), so should give great effort here. In 'building' mode - so letdown off Michigan is minimal.

Problem is - the spot/situation is already baked into the line, should be 8/9' probably. Another is that Sparty O matches up poorly vs Indy D (otherwise larger play).
>> Is Indy superhuman? > maybe so, just a smaller play for me to make them prove it, (again ha). BOL this week RT.
 
added

Sparty/Indy UNDER 51'
Indy -1 4Q


Quarter lines seem to be based on scoring splits mostly - I like to look at rushing - supported by passing numbers (or passing first if passing teams).
>> 4Q - Indy O solid as usual / D gives up nothing on the ground (1.2/rush - ZERO TD's) ...... Sparty rush O weakens as game progresses (4Q 2.5/rush - 3 TD's)
 
Talk to me about the Orange catching 4 in the Dome after that disaster last week. Feels generous. VT very average. McCord big bounce back at home?
 
bookieassassin said:
Haven't studied enough, or larger play - but Ponies will be lucky to survive this one (bye next). Really beat up at WR and RB....recall best player TE Maryland is OFY. what;s killed them in the past is TO / mistakes / poor ST play. They reverted back to their old ways last week - Pitt is a good team to take advantage :
#6 ST - #19 havoc - #22 sack % - #7 TFL - #2 passes defended. Pitt #20 RZ O vs SMU #121 RZ D.
>> note Pitt QB left game LW (THURS extra rest) - is supposedly OK ????? (Narduzzi said he just had dirt in his eye haha)

At this point Vandy as a dog has to be auto play right? - man they're unbelievable.

I love New Mexico for some reason - have been waiting for a chance to play those dogs - check their box scores - they move the ball like crazy - Problem? - D doesn't bother to even go on the field ....... but how does Wyoming keep up?

UConn on the last game of a SIX GAME HOMESTAND - Friday nite game should roll here? - Ga St in weird spot - @ App St / @ JMU - line should probably be > 8/9 (SP+ -18)

As a regression style / spot capper - gotta fade Indy off THAT win (small at least). Sparty run D is solid - a major issue here tho is finishing drives for Sparty (O and D). Sparty D and ST should/could keep them in this one (#29 - #15 / SP+). Sparty D is solid at preventing explosive plays (#18 rush/#55 pass). Should be low scoring game , so 7' is a lot .........
Click to expand...
Thanks for the thoughts.
 
Indy lol. You guys kill me. Indiana Hoosiers are not "Indy". Not today, not yesterday or tomorrow. Now, back to the betting...if you want to take Indiana in any quarter as a bet, the first quarter has been a gold mine. Haven't given up a point yet.
 
satnightfever05 said:
Talk to me about the Orange catching 4 in the Dome after that disaster last week. Feels generous. VT very average. McCord big bounce back at home?
Click to expand...


Tough one ......lean Cuse for sure. How seriously will the Hokies take the Cuse here? Hokies with CLEMSON on deck - Cuse with +1 day rest / BC next. Note the home team usually wins and covers in this series.

Cuse is too inconsistent for any solid play probably - gave up way too much to a really bad NCST, lost at home to a weak TREE - look at that Pitt box score - dayum.

Will say this, they match-up well vs VT - especially in finishing drives (O and D) - and making/preventing explosive plays (huge).

Hokies O - explosive rushing is key (#10) - Cuse D #34 in stopping.
Cuse O - explosive passing is what they do (#11) - Hokies D #82 in stopping

Cuse D tough on 3rd (#12) and in RZ (#16/TD). Offense is #6 on 3rd vs Hokie D #72. Note Hokies have a HUGE ST edge (#21 > #106)

Line is probably about right, I think I would need 5/6 to get involved - SP+ is 6, so might head that way?? Cuse ML is an option for sure, seems like the SU winner covers here - a probable high variance game - TO will be key most likely.
>> after that deep dive you forced me into (bastard ha) - I'll play VT 2Q / Cuse 3Q - can't get a good number on 3Q so waiting
 
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bookieassassin said:
Haven't studied enough, or larger play - but Ponies will be lucky to survive this one (bye next). Really beat up at WR and RB....recall best player TE Maryland is OFY. what;s killed them in the past is TO / mistakes / poor ST play. They reverted back to their old ways last week - Pitt is a good team to take advantage :
#6 ST - #19 havoc - #22 sack % - #7 TFL - #2 passes defended. Pitt #20 RZ O vs SMU #121 RZ D.
>> note Pitt QB left game LW (THURS extra rest) - is supposedly OK ????? (Narduzzi said he just had dirt in his eye haha)

At this point Vandy as a dog has to be auto play right? - man they're unbelievable.

I love New Mexico for some reason - have been waiting for a chance to play those dogs - check their box scores - they move the ball like crazy - Problem? - D doesn't bother to even go on the field ....... but how does Wyoming keep up?

UConn on the last game of a SIX GAME HOMESTAND - Friday nite game should roll here? - Ga St in weird spot - @ App St / @ JMU - line should probably be > 8/9 (SP+ -18)

As a regression style / spot capper - gotta fade Indy off THAT win (small at least). Sparty run D is solid - a major issue here tho is finishing drives for Sparty (O and D). Sparty D and ST should/could keep them in this one (#29 - #15 / SP+). Sparty D is solid at preventing explosive plays (#18 rush/#55 pass). Should be low scoring game , so 7' is a lot .........
Click to expand...
If you don’t mind, where are you laying quarter lines (on Monday?) I need to find a new outfit I can trust.

How can they give Vandy 7? Cmon man
Pittsburgh line is fantastic will ML
Sparty, thanks buddy! Will tail you in that spot. Great looks. Stay hot BA. I’ve finally broke through 53% on the year….best is yet to come.

Aloha
 
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A genius at work…..

“REGRESSION / human nature - the SPOT is tough. GAMEDAY crowd - one of the biggest games in school history - team gave great effort to make up for the loss of their QB (hence my PLAY ON Indy). NOW on the road FAVORED vs a team building an identity under a new great HC - that so happens matches up well with what they do offensively - they're a heavy running team (with backup QB).

Plus that's what you do when a key player is out - play ON the first game - look to fade the next (based on spot). Sparty has a BYE on deck (Indy has MICHIGAN), so should give great effort here. In 'building' mode - so letdown off Michigan is minimal.

Problem is - the spot/situation is already baked into the line, should be 8/9' probably. Another is that Sparty O matches up poorly vs Indy D (otherwise larger play).
>> Is Indy superhuman? > maybe so, just a smaller play for me to make them prove it, (again ha). BOL this week”
 
Husker, Hogs, & Cocks? Sounds like a Thai Porn Title….where’s Hunt?
I like these 3, no need for a write up, lol. Just your hat tip or no.

Good man BA
 
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Wolfeman said:
If you don’t mind, where are you laying quarter lines (on Monday?) I need to find a new outfit I can trust.

How can they give Vandy 7? Cmon man
Pittsburgh line is fantastic will ML
Sparty, thanks buddy! Will tail you in that spot. Great looks. Stay hot BA. I’ve finally broke through 53% on the year….best is yet to come.

Aloha
Click to expand...

Heritage with shaky early lines - they REALLY are discouraging me from playing the Cuse 3Q ha. Bookmaker closer to kick-off, or live.

Season is roughly half way thru - I like to view it as a round of golf - with bowls about 18 weeks......
>> one hole = one week ...... don't let ONE bad hole discourage you, or one great hole make you over confident ..... don't worry about your score, until you're finished FFS ....FOCUS on the next hole / task at hand. These highs/lows I see guys go thru each week (not here really) is totally ridiculous. Wins/losses come don't come in any neat, orderly fashion....... especially this year yikes.
 
added tiny / dumb action play

ULL / TX St 4Q under 14'

* at Heritage -115- not much here quarter wise - one constant is both O's are weakest / both D's strongest in the 4Q (ULL has scored (#27) / TSU doesn't score at all (#123)
 
added

NMSU +4 1Q

* these dogs are actually a decent 1Q team - FIU a slow starter / decent closer, so looking for a live/2H play on FIU ....1H maybe OK, 1Q seems better
 
Wolfeman said:
Husker, Hogs, & Cocks? Sounds like a Thai Porn Title….where’s Hunt?
I like these 3, no need for a write up, lol. Just your hat tip or no.

Good man BA
Click to expand...

will check out each later .....

just looking at the lines/movement

NEB - I would take the 6/6' now if you like 'em - SP+ is 15 or so probably only going up. Definitely like Huskers at <6', but over 7 I would lean Bruins maybe. Man they're quietly becoming a solid team. Out-rushed and played an even game (mostly) with Penn St on the road. Outgained Minny - shut down their running game and shoulda won (3 TO's). Whipped Rutgers on the road (solid at home). Check that schedule - HORRIBLE - off a bye / Huskers off tough game with Buckeyes, they might compete hard here.

SCARO - small play on ML - maybe wait for 3/3' - SP+ says 6 here, so might go up - Aggies are tough, bye on deck.

ARK - I would wait for sure - see where this goes - SP+ says 15 or so. Hogs match up poorly here, but always tough in this spot - I might take 7' and ML small ......

BOL this week buddy - where TF is WINNERS?
 
tiny play at BM

Texas State ML 3Q

ULL D stinks 3Q / 4 Q much better - Bobcats D tightens up a bit - O about the same - much worse 4Q, so 3Q is huge if they're gonna win this one
 
WKU -4 4Q

* -115 at BM -no clear quarter edges here - in this type game as a favorite, WKU closes well - D allows nothing 4Q - 5 (similar) games allowed 7 points
 
Tulane is the much stronger team tonite - CLT might compete for awhile, but O is too weak to sustain anything. 3Q is where Tulane is most dominant / CLT the weakest

Tulane -4 3Q

at Heritage

edit; adding to 3Q play (BM)
 
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added

Penn St +3'
UTSA +7'
ULM +3' 2Q
Cuse ML 3Q
Arkansas +8



PSU - more of a HUNCH than anything - NL seem to have more of an EDGE - match up great in the trenches - like what backup QB brings - Ohio State just seems beatable this year to me? Plus 3' is a good deal - too many points / low scoring game..

UTSA - Memphis stinks in this spot - RR have won 21 of last 23 SU at home, and should stay close or win outright

ULM - I like ULM here / hate the Herd in this spot ...... BUT the sorry Herd can run like crazy - playing really well (even at home), and ULM is much better at home. For some odd reason ( gotta be great adjustments early) ULM is great 2Q (Herd fades a bit)

ARK- great spot for the Hogs - match-up not so great ...Hogs have covered 10/11 in series. Posting now at 8, but will wait to see how high this goes

CUSE - kinda like them getting 4 (might add) - they have clear edges in the 3Q here
 
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wanna get involved in Army / AF - don't understand the line movement ..... either way Army comes out huge in 3Q - AF stinks even worse. If you like AF - take them 2Q

Army -6 3Q
 
hard to tell - USF is getting killed ITS (in the stats) - but FAU is a HORRIBLE 4Q team - wassup Tom H?

USF ML 4Q

#134 in scoring (1.7) - #123 scoring D (10.3) - rush O/D fall off the map
 
looking at sorry Michigan (uh-oh back to Blankets ha) ....

For now

3Q UNDER 10

* both are terrible offensively - both great on D - Ducks are #105 in scoring (3.7/huh) - have scored ONE rushing TD / ONE passing TD - depending on flow of game - looking for Michigan 1Q/1H/3Q - Ducks 2Q/2H/4Q
 
bookieassassin said:
looking at sorry Michigan (uh-oh back to Blankets ha) ....

For now

3Q UNDER 10

* both are terrible offensively - both great on D - Ducks are #105 in scoring (3.7/huh) - have scored ONE rushing TD / ONE passing TD - depending on flow of game - looking for Michigan 1Q/1H/3Q - Ducks 2Q/2H/4Q
Click to expand...
Had no idea on the Oregon end. Wowie.
 
added

S Caro 1H +0.5

*at Heritage - run D gives up nothing (0.9/rush) - Rush O by far their best Q - Aggie run D weakest......

Will probably stay away from game play - look to play Aggs 3Q or 2H - love the spot but don't wanna fade A&M, plus their D has a massive HAVOC edge over SC O (#10 vs #130)
 
bookieassassin said:
Major regret in my life ha ........

No man cave / cinema room - huge Idiocracy type chair with at least 10 TV's
>> you probably have one right?
Click to expand...

I have 2 and. A Laptop and 3 dudes on couches

Rough start for me! Hogs look lost, Penn st too, Orange are behind …. Time to turn this around.

Almost bailed on PennSt and hedge live Buckeyes. Much better prepared
 
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