2020 Arkansas Derby

[Ryno14]

Oaklawn Park Splits Arkansas Derby Into Two Divisions

Oaklawn Park will run two divisions of the Arkansas Derby (G1) May 2, with each division awarding 170 points toward starting eligibility in the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) at Churchill Downs.

www.bloodhorse.com

Can’t wait for this one on Saturday. Discuss away

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice!

 

[RBTrojan]

What are your guys thoughts on the race being split into two divisions?

Personally, I’m not a fan. There will be plenty of other opportunities for horses who don’t qualify for the Derby to do so. I hope this doesn’t set a precedent to begin splitting all major preps in order to have every hopeful to get in the starting gate. if one division runs five lengths faster than another, and the top 3 run a faster time than the other division’s winner, now you’ll get people complaining how certain horses “got screwed” in points.

just my two cents... that said, I’ll be watching!

 

[Gandolf]

You gotta run’em if they’re right. And unfortunately this is the only game in town so I can understand the large numbers showing up for this race.

My preference would’ve been to sneak that new 20 horse gate down from Churchill and make it a true Derby style race, but I’ll take whatever is handed out these days.

Hopefully other racing jurisdictions can learn from the tracks that have never stopped running and push some reopening plans past their risk averse politicians soon. I’m talking to you Cal, NY, KY and Illinios.

 

[RBTrojan]

My understanding is Santa Anita wants to open May 1 (Friday) but has not been approved yet to do so as of yet. When the track does open up I am certain they will be looking at setting up a time frame for the SA Derby. There should be plenty of opportunities for these 3 year olds to run in additional preps...

 

[Gandolf]

This could end up being a throwback year were the big horses run in multiple major preps. Spectacular Bid ran in the Florida Derby and the Blue Grass.

 

[aplous]

Love this. Considering all these other states are too chicken shit to run I give props to Oaklawn for finding a way to get them in and even more so gives me something to watch and bet on this Saturday.

Can anyone beat Nadal or Charlatan?

 

[CPA-hole]

Charlatan looks like the real effing deal. He's a freak. Not crazy about him drawing the rail. Need to study the others more.

 

[wiseplayer]

What's the best site to stream these daily horse races? I've got sites asking for credit card information when the site is supposed to be free.

 

[aplous]

NBC Sports and FS1 are doing coverage every Saturday and Sunday. Both of their apps also have the shows. Pretty good whip around coverage from all tracks, though the FS1 show does not show Gulfstream for some reason. NBC Sports is using the TVG set and hosts.

If you want to watch all races all day and night long like a true degenerate you need the TVG Channel (602 on DTV) or pay on their website.

 

[Gandolf]

Charlatan looks like he'll be in great position to fire out from the rail. Only horse I see challenging him for the first half mile is Shooters Shoot, who is also the only horse with a win at Oaklawn. He could put Charlatan to the test early, but I worry about his distance ability. He chased Charlatan around the track in the favorites maiden voyage.

If somehow those two duel then it could open things up for the still improving Gouverneur Morris and Anneau d'Or who's BC Juvenile speed number is the only one in the neighborhood of Charlatan's.

Basin hasn't seen a fast track since last July but ran well back then and would be an interesting price play. Wrecking Crew is a longshot with a dirtied up record since his surprise third in the BC Juvenile.

First thought is to take each of the three pairs and basically box the pairs ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CBA, CAB. At 50 cent tri that would be $4 x 6 = $24.

 

[Gandolf]

Just saw that Shooter's Shoot will be scratched due to a fever. That's a huge scratch as now Charlatan looks to have it all his way from the front. He figures to cruise to a win now.

 

[Gandolf]

The other division with Nadal as the 5/2 favorite looks loaded with early speed. Storm the Court, King Guillermo and Nadal are all fast and lined up 3-4-5. Taishan and Wells Bayou can also attack from the outside post. Unless one of the 3-4-5 or Wells Bayou ends up being a super horse I tend to think this race sets up well for Farmington Road and Silver Prospector to grind them down in the stretch. It depends on which one of the two can get the ground saving trip. Farmington Road has really suffered from numerous wide trips, to the point where you wonder if he needs to be that wide because he hates kickback. So Silver Prospector seems like the better option. He has a win at the track and has won 2 of 3 on a fast track, assuming we get one.

I'll probably play Silver Prospector in exactas over and under the four best speed horses (3-4-5-11).

 

[CPA-hole]

Baffert couldn't have asked for a better spot now for Charlatan. Yes the rail isn't great, but there is absolutely no speed in there now to challenge him. Shooters Shoot chased him futilely in a maiden race and now he's scratched.

Also this division is so weak compared to the other. Only one graded stakes winner in this one compared to 5 in the second division, the 13th race.

 

[CPA-hole]

The 13th looks like a free for all. I'll be playing against King Guillermo. I wasnt on him in the Tampa Bay Derby at 49-1 so won't be on him at 3-1 in the Arkansas Derby. Seems like that morning line is way too low. Still working on this race.

Anyway the 11th race I'll try to hammer a Charlatan/Basin straight exacta. Basin gets off the mud and rail and should plod along long enough to get up for 2nd.

Exacta 1 with 11
Trifecta 1 with 11 with 4,7,8,9
1 with 4,7,8,9 with 11

 

[Gandolf]

Now that we're down to 20 I really wish they could push it back another 1/16th, drop in the 20 horse gate from Churchill and let us have some real fun.

 

[B.A.R.]

The other division with Nadal as the 5/2 favorite looks loaded with early speed. Storm the Court, King Guillermo and Nadal are all fast and lined up 3-4-5. Taishan and Wells Bayou can also attack from the outside post. Unless one of the 3-4-5 or Wells Bayou ends up being a super horse I tend to think this race sets up well for Farmington Road and Silver Prospector to grind them down in the stretch. It depends on which one of the two can get the ground saving trip. Farmington Road has really suffered from numerous wide trips, to the point where you wonder if he needs to be that wide because he hates kickback. So Silver Prospector seems like the better option. He has a win at the track and has won 2 of 3 on a fast track, assuming we get one.

I'll probably play Silver Prospector in exactas over and under the four best speed horses (3-4-5-11).

A former member says that Silver Prospector is solid value.

 

[aplous]

Race 12 is a helluva field as well

 

[CPA-hole]

Wrecking Crew is now scratched out of the 11th and Saratogian is out of the 13th. Leaves 9 in each now.