CTG TRIPLE CROWN HORSE RACING CONTEST--FREE!!—PRIZES!!

Gandolf said:
Betting horses is not much different than other sports betting....you can put as much or as little time into research as you want. You can bet hunches, you can run mostly favorites or look for those live dogs. Instead of parlays we have Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc., where you string multiple bets together. Instead of same game parlays we have exactas, trifectas and superfectas where you're picking the top 2, 3 or 4 finishers.

If you're talking about reviewing past performances, first you need to pick a type of past performance sheet. The four most popular are Daily Racing Form (by far the most popular), Timeform, Brisnet and Equibase. They all offer the same basic info (Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Horse's record, speed ratings (all 3 have different numbers), running line for each of the last 10 races, etc.) and then a few things special to their sheets.

I prefer Brisnet for a few reasons:
1) you can find them online for free. Go to Cindy Pierson Dulay's website, she has past performances sorted by trainers, some sires, and some larger stables. Sometimes you need to click, go back, click again to get to the info, depending on your operating system. I guess they do that to discourage the lazy.

Finding specific races is not as easy as it used to be. In the past WhoBet used to curate all the public pps and sort them by track. Now I go to Equibase, go to their entries page and look at trainers and sires to figure out where to find the races on Cindy's list. Luckily many of the big trainers (Chad, Todd, Cox, Baffert, O'Neil, Mott, Rice, Romans, Ward) allow direct access for the races they've entered. The big track races are usually easy enough to find.

2) they have a library at http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=library where they tell you everything they have on their pps and what it means from a racing standpoint. It is an invaluable resource.

3) I really like their measures on running styles (great for visualizing how a race will unfold), race pace (great for 2 turn races) and class (great for turf races) as something to consider in addition to speed numbers.

As far as how to pick horses, there have been dozens of books written on the subject. Very briefly, what you're trying to do is two things: 1) measuring the potential of each horse and 2) figuring out how likely it is that the best half of those horses can run to their potential in that race.

There are countless tips and rules of thumb to consider. Among my favorites:

1) Pace makes the race - to me that means if their are too many early speed horses in the race, the closers come into play. Otherwise its highly likely the winner will spend the whole race within 3 or so lengths of the lead.
2) Turf races are about class and closing - turf races often run slow early with everyone waiting to make moves on the far turn and stretch. Horses with proven class and late running ability tend to do well.
3) Be wary of favorites trying to do something for the first time - new equipment, new jockey, stretching out, switching surfaces, etc. all question marks that can make the favorite (who only wins about a third of the time anyway) vulnerable
4) Claiming races are as much about angles as they are potential - find horses in the top half of the field that have changes that could raise their effort (new trainer, cutback in distance, sharp work, blinkers on or off, new to lasix, etc.)
5) When nothing looks special, go with the unknown - especially true with maidens and maiden claimers, shippers, surface switchers. If what you see on paper doesn't appeal, then the unknown horses are worth an extra look

I like to budget 15 to 30 minutes on race analysis. Some don't like to spend that kind of time. To each their own.
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This post should be pinned for inquiring minds
 
Posts drawn on Tuesday

1. Epicenter (sire Not This Time) 164 points (Asmussen/Rosario)
2. Zandon (Upstart) 114 (C. Brown/Prat)
3. White Abarrio (Race Day) 112 (Joseph/Gallalione)
4. Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) 112 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
5. Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) 110 (McPeek/B. Hernandez)
6. Cyberknife (Gun Runner) 100 (Cox/Geroux)
7. Crown Pride-JPN (Reach the Crown) 100 (Shintani/Lemaire)
8. Taiba (Gun Runner) 100 (Yakteen/Smith)
9. Simplification (Not This Time) 74 (Sano/J. Ortiz)
10. Smile Happy (Runhappy) 70 (McPeek/Lanerie)
11. Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) 66 (Lynch/Leparoux)
12. Tawny Port (Pioneerof The Nile) 60 (Cox/Santana)
13. Barber Road (Race Day) 58 (J. Ortiz/R. Gutierrez)
14. Un Ojo (Laoban) 54 (Courville/R. Vasquez)
15. Messier (Empire Maker) 40 (Yakteen/J. Velazquez)
16. Zozos (Munnings) 40 (Cox/M. Franco)
17. Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front) 40 (Seemar/Barzalona)
18. Charge It (Tapit) 40 (Pletcher/Saez)
19. Happy Jack (Oxbow) 30 (O'Neill/Cedillo)
20. Pioneer of Medina 25 (Pletcher/TBA)
----------------------------------------
AE/21. Rich Strike 21 (Reed/Leon)
AE/22. Rattle N Roll 20 (McPeek/Graham)
 
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Not sure it’s something to be sad about. Wet track has meant big prices in recent years. The favorites have been dominating the fast track. It makes for a tougher handicapping puzzle tho.
 
Gandolf said:
Not sure it’s something to be sad about. Wet track has meant big prices in recent years. The favorites have been dominating the fast track. It makes for a tougher handicapping puzzle tho.
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I had 4 in mind and now have zero, thus upset

Prolly need a separate thread for the Derby than the contest thread but slop races when you have the elite out there is simply not the thing when you're hoping for a classic which I think a dry track would provide
 
Hearing that Un Ojo is out, and Ethereal Road is entering and will be in the field of 20.
 
Epicenter and Yafferts are must use for me. I think Oaks is Kathleen O or Pletcher’s horse. A lot riding on this draw though…
 
So far I've narrowed to Zandon, Caiba, Cyber and Messier

Guessing none of their odds will be enticing and on mud it's a tosser
 
From what I saw, Saturday looked better. That track can take alot of water. We shall see

Taiba is the total x-factor. Probably the biggest talent in the field. I still think Messier may beat him Saturday though. Just don't know where to rank those two vs Epicenter and Zandon.
 
CPA-hole said:
From what I saw, Saturday looked better. That track can take alot of water. We shall see

Taiba is the total x-factor. Probably the biggest talent in the field. I still think Messier may beat him Saturday though. Just don't know where to rank those two vs Epicenter and Zandon.
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Agree with this. Hoping Zandon gets a bad draw because I'd like to toss him.
 
KJ said:
So far I've narrowed to Zandon, Caiba, Cyber and Messier

Guessing none of their odds will be enticing and on mud it's a tosser
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Arkansas horses don’t win shit at Keeneland this spring. I’m tossing them all for KyD purposes.
 
Marsski said:
Cyber and Barber Road are out of Arky. I do like the filly that came in third a little bit.
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Of the 4 I mentioned Cyber is 4th for sure

Doesn't really matter for me until we see track conditions anyway
 
Great draws for my whorses

Something about this race has a Summer liveliness about it. Been 90s lately, but this is like the official beginning of either ending up in a hospital or jail, or just acting like a bachelor.

Messier draw is sublime
 
Tough draw for MO Donegal. Can't see him working out a trip with his lack of early speed on the rail. Expect Zozos and Classic Causeway to gun it from the outside and try to get the lead.
 
KJ said:
Great draws for my whorses

Something about this race has a Summer liveliness about it. Been 90s lately, but this is like the official beginning of either ending up in a hospital or jail, or just acting like a bachelor.

Messier draw is sublime
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Exactly where Messier wanted...and outside of Epicenter...
 
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With the new single 20 gate structure the rail isn't as deadly as it used to be, and Mo Donegal will be taking back in the run to the turn. I don't think he'll have trouble at the beginning. His problems will be a) will the pace be fast enough to wilt the leaders and b) will he find a good trip as he passes tired horses.

I'm still not sure who wants the lead in this group. The horses less than a length from the lead after six furlongs in their last race were Cyberknife, Simplification, Messier, Summer is Tomorrow, Pioneer of Medina and Zozos. Out of those the speediest were Simplification and Messier. Messier probably gets the front and then Johnny V can see how far he'll go.
 
Bad morning line on Taiba. I think he'll be closer to 6 or 7-1. If any of you like him and have books doing fixed odds now, it'll be 12-1 now or 6-1 on Sarurday.

I like Modonegal the horse, but I think he's more trip dependent of any horse in here. He doesn't have the turn of foot if he gets stopped at any point to catch up. If they did have a Belmont future right now, he'd be my pick.

Hopefully Summer is Tomorrow just guns it and everyone else can adjust accordingly and let him go.
 
Recapping the standings to date:

OVERALL STANDINGS
Bench Coach $56.20
Gandolf $49.40
KJ $35.40
jpfeck $26.60
aplous $26.00
SIGO $23.60
jimbo1311 $22.60
oakas $19.40
RetroVK $15.20
madshooter $13.40
Colin Wynner $12.20
slaptron $9.60
CPA-hole $9.40
chipnotized $7.40
Play2win $7.40
$0 - Augie, Vap's Back, The Farm

Remember to get your pick in before post time tomorrow. The selection will be calculated as a $4 win/place wager. New contestants can still play!
 
Ok @Gandolf this is it, for all the marbles. I just cashed in all my change and have 77 bucks I can put on the Derby.

I need you to give me a lock
 
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King Slap said:
Ok @Gandolf this is it, for all the marbles. I just cashed in all my change and have 77 bucks I can put on the Derby.

I need you to give me a lock
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There are no locks on Derby day, that's what makes if fun.

My win/place candidates
Running style - front or stalkers
3,6,12
Running style - mid-pack or closers
1,10

In the money (2nd-4th) candidates
Running style - front or stalkers
8,13,15
Running style - mid-pack or closers
5,14,18

I'm tossing the rest. Mix and match at your pleasure. Like for a trifecta, if you like a fast pace go with two spots for mid-pack/closers and one spot for early/stalkers. For a moderate pace use more early/stalkers.
 
Apparently Mo Donegal is an Iowa horse, not really sure if one has ever run in the Derby before
 
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