2014 NCAA Football Misleading Finals/Box Score Analysis

[ebemiss]

I’ve put together a program taking a look at each NCAA Football box score to see if a team’s, actual stats, met their pre-game (line) expectation and the final score (margin).

Every game from the weekend, (FBS vs FBS, FBS vs FCS), is listed on the attached sheet in this thread. (minus 2 games Sunday and Miami/Louisville. I'll add them below)

So if a team meets or exceeds pre-game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However.... if they win or lose and are statistically dominated, this program will show that.

I also adjust the totals based on actual yards compared to actual points. For example two teams may score 35 points but their offense’s total yardage for the game only amounted to an estimated 20 points based on their yardage stats. They may have benefited from turnovers, kick returns and short fields.

People may have different opinions on why this happens. I just ran the numbers through my program to get a “statistical opinion” on what should have happened based on yardage stats and taking away turnovers.

I’ve used something similar to this in the past to find teams that may be overlooked or overvalued based on the prior weeks games.

Here are a couple of games that had misleading stats from week 1. You'll see Minnesota and Purdue covered the number last week but probably shouldn't have based on the yards/t.o stats.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

E Illinois​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

22.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-1.28​

[/TD]
[TD]

62​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Minnesota​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-22.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

1.28​

[/TD]
[TD]

62​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

E Illinois​

[/TD]
[TD]

51.43​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

1.28​

[/TD]
[TD]

409.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

26.35​

[/TD]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[TD]

PLAY​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Minnesota​

[/TD]
[TD]

51.43​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

1.28​

[/TD]
[TD]

338.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

25.07​

[/TD]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]
[TD]

FADE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

W Michigan​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

9.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-0.16​

[/TD]
[TD]

77​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Purdue​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-9.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

0.16​

[/TD]
[TD]

77​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

W Michigan​

[/TD]
[TD]

59.47​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

0.16​

[/TD]
[TD]

456.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

29.81​

[/TD]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]
[TD]

PLAY​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Purdue​

[/TD]
[TD]

59.47​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

0.16​

[/TD]
[TD]

407.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

29.66​

[/TD]
[TD]

0​

[/TD]
[TD]

FADE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



Here's the key to the numbers you'll see. It's not earth shattering it's essentially projecting a final score using the actual stats and comparing that result to the point spread result.

The chart below is taking a look at the previous week's box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats.
The program generates an "expected" margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the:

1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction)

2. Actual margin of victory

So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that.
Key:
1. ATS-- Against the spread.
2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread --How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers.
3. Game should've been.. -- A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point.
4. Win Margin—Final game margin.
5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers.
6. Game tot—Acutal game total.
7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards.
8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin.
9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by.
10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense.
11. Score should've been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers.
12. TO—Actual game turnovers.
13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade)
Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.
Bad—Played below expectations for the game.
Fade—Played well below expectations for the game.
Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week.

 

[ebemiss]

Here are the other 3 games that weren't listed on the spreadsheet. It looks like the Tennessee game should have been closer as a +3 turnover margin helped them. They also had 2 scoring drives that were 12 yds and 11 yds TOTAL.

Like I mentioned above everyone looks at the numbers in their own way. I just use them as part of the selection process for an upcoming game, not the only reason to pick a team.

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<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Utah State​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

31.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.62​

[/TD]
[TD]

45​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Tennessee​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-31.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-8.62​

[/TD]
[TD]

45​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Utah State​

[/TD]
[TD]

43.37​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.62​

[/TD]
[TD]

244.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

17.37​

[/TD]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[TD]

BAD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Tennessee​

[/TD]
[TD]

43.37​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.62​

[/TD]
[TD]

383.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

26.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

0​

[/TD]
[TD]

GOOD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

SMU​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Higher Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

45.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

43.05​

[/TD]
[TD]

45​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Baylor​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Higher Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-45.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-43.05​

[/TD]
[TD]

45​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

SMU​

[/TD]
[TD]

49.71​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

43.05​

[/TD]
[TD]

67.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

3.33​

[/TD]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[TD]

BAD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Baylor​

[/TD]
[TD]

49.71​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

43.05​

[/TD]
[TD]

574.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

46.38​

[/TD]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[TD]

GOOD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Miami (FL)​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

18.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.59​

[/TD]
[TD]

44​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Louisville​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-18.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-8.59​

[/TD]
[TD]

44​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Miami (FL)​

[/TD]
[TD]

40.13​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.59​

[/TD]
[TD]

244.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

15.77​

[/TD]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[TD]

BAD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Louisville​

[/TD]
[TD]

40.13​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.59​

[/TD]
[TD]

336.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

24.36​

[/TD]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[TD]

GOOD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Schrute]

Great info man

Thanks for sharing

 

[ebemiss]

No problem. Thanks for helping me out with the tech issue. I appreciate it.

 

[B.A.R.]

No problem. Thanks for helping me out with the tech issue. I appreciate it.

It was weird indeed. Glad we got you going again, GREAT post. Thanks for sharing.

 

[ebemiss]

It was weird indeed. Glad we got you going again, GREAT post. Thanks for sharing.

Thanks for the help.

If anyone has a question about the info above let me know. Sometimes you can go blind on the numbers.

I just have found when factoring this into my handicapping it's been helpful.

If my number on the game has value, I like the situation on the upcoming game, and the team I am leaning towards has a favorable box score from the week before it's been good combo for me.

 

[P-Unit]

awesome stuff.

I'm really curious on your numbers on the LSU game and the UCLA game and if anything stood out to you.

 

[ebemiss]

awesome stuff.

I'm really curious on your numbers on the LSU game and the UCLA game and if anything stood out to you.

Thanks. UCLA was abysmal by the numbers. Should have lost the game. Were out-gained and had benefit of 3 Defensive TD's. My number for them against Memphis is -25 which is right around the current spread. Memphis looked great week 1 but there's not enough value for me on them even with UCLA's awful performance at Virginia.


<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

UCLA​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Higher Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-8.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

2.49​

[/TD]
[TD]

48​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Virginia​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Higher Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

8.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-2.49​

[/TD]
[TD]

48​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

UCLA​

[/TD]
[TD]

51.46​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

2.49​

[/TD]
[TD]

358.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

24.49​

[/TD]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[TD]

BAD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Virginia​

[/TD]
[TD]

51.46​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

2.49​

[/TD]
[TD]

386.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

26.98​

[/TD]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[TD]

GOOD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The LSU game played out as it should have by the numbers. I had LSU winning by about 5 (using actual game numbers) they won by 4. Nothing overwhelming stands out. They won the TO battle.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Wisconsin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

4.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

5.70​

[/TD]
[TD]

52​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

LSU​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-4.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-5.70​

[/TD]
[TD]

52​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Wisconsin​

[/TD]
[TD]

47.44​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

5.70​

[/TD]
[TD]

318.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

20.87​

[/TD]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[TD]

BAD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

LSU​

[/TD]
[TD]

47.44​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

5.70​

[/TD]
[TD]

369.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

26.57​

[/TD]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]
[TD]

GOOD​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Elbutre88]

very cool. thanks for doing all this and posting.

 

[ebemiss]

very cool. thanks for doing all this and posting.

Thanks.

Here are 3 games that I played based on some of the information I posted above and other factors that I liked about the games.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> 317 Central Michigan +3.5
342 Penn St –14
313 Ball St +17.5

 

[ebemiss]

Couple more

310 Iowa St +12.5
323 Navy -3 -115

 

[Schrute]

Thanks for sharing your plays man and good luck today

 

[ebemiss]

Thanks for sharing your plays man and good luck today

Thanks Schrute. Good luck on plays this season as well.

 

[ebemiss]

Late night

387 Oregon State -9
389 Texas Tech -21

 

[Gordon gekko]

Ed,
nice job finding winners today

 

[ebemiss]

Ed,
nice job finding winners today

Thanks. Hopefully we catch a couple late.

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers3:

 

[CollegeKingRex]

great work this week, :shake:

 

[ebemiss]

great work this week, :shake:

Thanks and Thanks for the thread you run with the line moves. It was great info for either getting my bet in now, before a line moved too far, or possibly wait until later in the week. The information is solid.

 

[ebemiss]

Week 2 misleading box scores are updated. I've attached a sheet with all of last week's games.

Here are a couple of samples from last week.

First game is Oregon/Michigan St. Looks like this game should have been a 1 score game by the numbers.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7Michigan State​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

19.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

5.57​

[/TD]
[TD]

73​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3Oregon​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-19.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-5.57​

[/TD]
[TD]

73​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7Michigan State​

[/TD]
[TD]

66.32​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

5.57​

[/TD]
[TD]

466.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

30.38​

[/TD]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[TD]

PLAY​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3Oregon​

[/TD]
[TD]

66.32​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

5.57​

[/TD]
[TD]

491.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

35.94​

[/TD]
[TD]

0​

[/TD]
[TD]

FADE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

2nd game is just ridiculous. By the numbers Miami OH should have won the game by double digits. Somehow they managed to lose by a touchdown.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->


[TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

E Kentucky​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Higher Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-7.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.52​

[/TD]
[TD]

27​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Miami (OH)​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Higher Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

7.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-21.52​

[/TD]
[TD]

27​

[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

E Kentucky​

[/TD]
[TD]

50.29​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.52​

[/TD]
[TD]

280.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

14.38​

[/TD]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]
[TD]

FADE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Miami (OH)​

[/TD]
[TD]

50.29​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.52​

[/TD]
[TD]

445.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

35.90​

[/TD]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]
[TD]

PLAY​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[RetroVK]

This is an interesting thread. good luck

 

[ebemiss]

This is an interesting thread. good luck

Thanks.

A couple I played so far.

Record in this thread 5-2 (+2.80)

105 Houston +18.5
168 Stanford -28

 

[ebemiss]

add

191 Penn St –3
171 Wake Forest +15

 

[ebemiss]

add

195 Rice +32
150 Duke -14
127 Syracuse -5.5

 

[Schrute]

Thanks for posting

GL this week Ed

 

[ebemiss]

Thanks for posting

GL this week Ed

Thanks Schrute. Good luck as well with your plays.

Adding another unit to Syracuse (2 units total) 1 at -5.5, 1 at -4.5

127 Syracuse -4.5

 

[RaiderVap]

This is all very intresting eb. Ever try with the pros?! A lot of the system plays I've used in the past, I've done with pencil and scratch paper, haha. Most of them pretty simple, like for the NBA, Points scored for and against, Def on the road and home, etc. Really, anyone can do it, just takes time I don't have. I'll share it with you sometime if you like. Good Luck This Weekend! :shake:

 

[ebemiss]

This is all very intresting eb. Ever try with the pros?! A lot of the system plays I've used in the past, I've done with pencil and scratch paper, haha. Most of them pretty simple, like for the NBA, Points scored for and against, Def on the road and home, etc. Really, anyone can do it, just takes time I don't have. I'll share it with you sometime if you like. Good Luck This Weekend! :shake:

Thanks. Yes. I run the numbers through this in the Pro's as well. (Box Score analysis and power rankings).

You're right, like I mentioned above.....none of the analysis is earth shattering it's just breaking down the box score a litter further. I use all of the information along with my power rankings, injuries, etc....to help make a pick.

I'm always looking to share information and feedback. Good luck this weekend.

 

[ebemiss]

Record in this thread 11-2 (+9.80)

 

[CollegeKingRex]

another great week, sir. Keep 'em coming...

 

[ebemiss]

another great week, sir. Keep 'em coming...

Thanks.

 

[ebemiss]

Updated box scores from week 3 are attached below.

 

[ebemiss]

played

393 UL Lafayette +17

 

[Reds4]

This is some really great information. Thanks for sharing it, and good luck this week

 

[ebemiss]

This is some really great information. Thanks for sharing it, and good luck this week

Thanks and good luck to you as well!

 

[ebemiss]

add these

303 Auburn -7
319 Idaho +14
352 South Alabama +3
359 UNLV +22

 

[ebemiss]

add

331 North Carolina +3

 

[Maineroad]

I beleive there's an obscure Nevada statute that requires anyone who bets Idaho, South Alabama and UNLV on the same day to attend a Gamblers Anonymous meeting within the ensuing 24 hour period.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

that's the quote of the year in a CFB thread, maine, i almost fell out of my chair

GL this week bemiss

 

[Frank Costanza]

played

393 UL Lafayette +17

I'm not sure what is going on with Terrance Broadway. But BOL and thanks for this info.

 

[ebemiss]

I beleive there's an obscure Nevada statute that requires anyone who bets Idaho, South Alabama and UNLV on the same day to attend a Gamblers Anonymous meeting within the ensuing 24 hour period.

I know. Looks horrible when you look at it, doesn't it!!! Sometimes the value/situation makes me hold my nose on some of these teams. I'm waiting on 1 more team like this to get bet up some more as well.

Last week I had Rice and Wake Forest. Wasn't easy rooting for them either. 2 more grease fires....

A meeting probably isn't a bad idea. The only thing is...... this time of year it would be hard to decide which meeting and vice to attempt to fix first.

 

[ebemiss]

I'm not sure what is going on with Terrance Broadway. But BOL and thanks for this info.

I'm not sure what's going on with him either. The game just fits a couple things I look for and I show enough line value at +17 to take a shot.

My number:

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->

LA Lafayette

24.01

Boise State

37.35

61.37

13.34

-13.34

09/20/2014

(Home)

<tbody>
</tbody>

You'll see the 2 box scores, that I ran through my program, from (Boise and LA Lafayette below and they are a bit misleading based on the results from last week) Boise was awful and ULL wasn't as bad as the final score.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> [TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Boise State​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-17.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

3.11​

[/TD]
[TD]

59​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Connecticut​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

17.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-3.11​

[/TD]
[TD]

59​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Boise State​

[/TD]
[TD]

40.34​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

3.11​

[/TD]
[TD]

292.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

18.61​

[/TD]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]
[TD]

FADE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Connecticut​

[/TD]
[TD]

40.34​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

3.11​

[/TD]
[TD]

290.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.72​

[/TD]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]
[TD]

PLAY​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 716"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 180"]

Team​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 91"]

ATS​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 151"]

Act. yds vs act. spread​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 157"]

Game should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 100"]

Win Margin​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 140"]

Yds/TO spread conv.​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]

Game tot​

[/TD]
[TD="width: 72"]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

LA-Lafayette​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lost ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Better than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

41.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.26​

[/TD]
[TD]

71​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

14Ole Miss​

[/TD]
[TD]

Won ATS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Worse than predicted​

[/TD]
[TD]

Lower Scoring​

[/TD]
[TD]

-41.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

-21.26​

[/TD]
[TD]

71​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

Yppt. Total​

[/TD]
[TD]

W/L Projection​

[/TD]
[TD]

Margin​

[/TD]
[TD]

Actual Yds​

[/TD]
[TD]

Score should've been..​

[/TD]
[TD]

TO​

[/TD]
[TD]

Next Week​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[TD]

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

LA-Lafayette​

[/TD]
[TD]

62.86​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have lost by​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.26​

[/TD]
[TD]

322.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

20.80​

[/TD]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]
[TD]

PLAY​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

14Ole Miss​

[/TD]
[TD]

62.86​

[/TD]
[TD]

Should have won by​

[/TD]
[TD]

21.26​

[/TD]
[TD]

554.00​

[/TD]
[TD]

42.06​

[/TD]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]
[TD]

FADE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[ebemiss]

add

355 Rutgers +6.5

 

[RaiderVap]

You ever give your plays 'Stars' let say? As in...In The NBA, after crunching numbers (Over/Unders What I Do) If My O/U number is 4 or 5 point diff, I'd give that a 2 star game, I can take it or leave it. If my number is at least 7 point diff, it's a play for sure. So, for your college football plays, do u think your UNLV play is stronger than say Auburn, or same, or different?! Thanks. And Good Luck This Weekend!


:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Ebe, I really enjoy this thread and cheer for you. One thing you might want to make sure you consider to add to your capping mechanism is injuries. I noticed you added Rutgers. I don't know if that is a good play or not .. but I do know that a mathematical approach to looking at the Navy boxscore from last week is flawed without accounting for injury. Reynolds did not play in that game and returns this week against Rutgers. Being the best Navy QB since Roger, he is going to make a difference for them.

Good luck !

 

[ebemiss]

You ever give your plays 'Stars' let say? As in...In The NBA, after crunching numbers (Over/Unders What I Do) If My O/U number is 4 or 5 point diff, I'd give that a 2 star game, I can take it or leave it. If my number is at least 7 point diff, it's a play for sure. So, for your college football plays, do u think your UNLV play is stronger than say Auburn, or same, or different?! Thanks. And Good Luck This Weekend

Most of the time I will play the games for 1 unit. In this thread I've only had 1 two unit play out of 13 total plays. (Syracuse last week)

I've found that playing most of the games a flat unit has actually helped my handicapping. Meaning it has to be extreme line value, or added information that I've found, to distinguish it above the others. For me trying to decide which game is more important, when I arrive at the picks in similar ways, is difficult. I just figure if I make 3 plays and go 2-1 but lose a 3 "star/unit" bet........I lose money! I went 2-1 and lost money. Doesn't make sense to me.

So a 2 unit play is max and I'll rarely have them.

 

[ebemiss]

Ebe, I really enjoy this thread and cheer for you. One thing you might want to make sure you consider to add to your capping mechanism is injuries. I noticed you added Rutgers. I don't know if that is a good play or not .. but I do know that a mathematical approach to looking at the Navy boxscore from last week is flawed without accounting for injury. Reynolds did not play in that game and returns this week against Rutgers. Being the best Navy QB since Roger, he is going to make a difference for them.

Good luck !

The box scores are based on stats from the week before. They factor in the players that played. I account for injuries separately in my handicapping process.

The box score numbers I post and the power rankings I create are just a starting point for me. After that I'll dig into game stories, articles, and the injury report before making a decision on a pick.

My play on Rutgers/Navy is more of an opinion on Rutgers than against Navy. When considering everything I still think there's too much value in the line.

Good luck this weekend.

 

[ebemiss]

Record through 9/19

11-3 (+8.70)

Plays pending that have already been posted in this thread earlier in the week.

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> 393 UL Lafayette +17
319 Idaho +14
352 South Alabama +3
359 UNLV +22
331 North Carolina +3
355 Rutgers +6.5

9/20 additional plays

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <woNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->
321 Central Michigan +3.5
381 No Illinois +13.5

FCS vs FCS

603 Weber State +9.5

 

[ebemiss]

add

407 Southern Illinois +3

 

[RetroVK]

The box scores are based on stats from the week before. They factor in the players that played. I account for injuries separately in my handicapping process.

The box score numbers I post and the power rankings I create are just a starting point for me. After that I'll dig into game stories, articles, and the injury report before making a decision on a pick.

My play on Rutgers/Navy is more of an opinion on Rutgers than against Navy. When considering everything I still think there's too much value in the line.

Good luck this weekend.

Ah ok. Good. Have a great week and see you at the meeting.