2008 cfb - time to post my week 8 card so far

[RetroVK]

Had a rough week finishing 7-7 , getting juiced out. Seven games worth of juice though is pretty rough. Feel like I actually broke even in the luck category or better this past week , for a change, which feels good too. On to this week, where i like the card a little bit but as of now have only locked in a few plays. recaps later in the week from last weeks games.

updated through week 7
overall 41-36-2
Sides 25-27-2
moneyline dogs 0-1
totals 16-8

locked in

nevada-19
Arizona pick
ohio state -3
maryland ml +105
virginia Tech +3
pittsburgh -3
missst/vols over 35.5
uconn/rutgers over 43.5
purdue/northwestern over 44
miamiohio +10
iowa -3 -120
georgia tech -2
south carolina +3 -120



strong leans
maryland +1 added to plays 10-13-08
florida atlantic pick eliminated 10-15-08
maimi ohio +9.5 added to plays 10-15-08
virginia tech +2 added to plays 10-13-08
georgia tech +2 added to plays 10-15-08
south carolina +3 added to plays 10-17-08
byu -2 eliminated 10-14-08


talk me off leans

uconn +1 eliminated 10-15-08
iowa -3.5 added to plays 10-15-08
northwestern -3.5 eliminated 10-15-08
central mich -3 eliminated 10-14-08
s miss +3.5 eliminated 10-15-08
usc -1 million eliminated 10-14-08
pitt -3 added 10-14-08
kentucky -10 eliminated 10-14-08
ucla -2.5 eliminated 10-15-08
duke +6 eliminated 10-15-08
iowa st +6 eliminated 10-14-08
georgia --- eliminated 10-14-08
northern illinois -7 eliminated 10-14-08

 

[JPicks]

I thought that Nevada line looked a little weak. What would you play that up to? 21?

 

[pags11]

appreciate your efforts my friend...

 

[buckeyeburritos]

like osu kyle, wouldn't lay more than 3 on em though. I just don't see them losing to msu.

 

[RetroVK]

I thought that Nevada line looked a little weak. What would you play that up to? 21?

yup up to 21.

now in theory it would be good even beyond that but i am doing my best not to lay more than 3 td in a game so for me it would be 21.

As far as fundamentals coupled with situational handicapping ... this is one of the best bets i think i will make all year unless there is an injury i dont know about.

The price tag of 19 is still steep and has its pitfalls but i love this play. have a lot to add later in the week but i can safely recommend this , knowing win or lose that it met almost all major criteria i use to handicap.

 

[RetroVK]

appreciate your efforts my friend...

right back at ya buddy.

Enjoy our football roundtables each week:smiley_acbe:

 

[RetroVK]

like osu kyle, wouldn't lay more than 3 on em though. I just don't see them losing to msu.

Similar thinking. I think msu is one of those teams that is kind of sneaking by. I just don't think hoyer can do enough against this defense to win the game. MSU offense as a whole is weaker than last year and tosu returns just about everyone on defense that dominated these guys in the shoe.

just asking them to win........ they were hovering between pick and -3 at northwestern last week and now we expect them to win this game ???

 

[JPicks]

I know you're not betting it, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on the TCU/BYU showdown if you have a minute in the next couple of days.

 

[RetroVK]

I know you're not betting it, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on the TCU/BYU showdown if you have a minute in the next couple of days.

its not on my list but i am likely betting byu. it is excluded from strong leans in error.

 

[RetroVK]

I think BYU matches up well with TCU who i expect to be a trendy play. TCU stops the run ,,, HARD ... but BYU doesn't need to run to succeed. TCU secondary has looked pretty vulnerable at times ) oklahoma , csu --receivers cant catch-- and i look for Hall to take advantage. TCU thursday night woes are well documented and Dalton is probably playing but how healthy is he ?? Jackson is a trainwreck so if Dalton has problems its game over. It is also a game where i prefer to have the team that can throw when they get behind because both teams stop the run.

So in a game where both defenses stuff the run to under 3 yards per carry , i think it comes down to pass defense and i think that gives BYU several advantages.

BYU averages over 160 more yards through the air a game than TCU and average 8.5 per pass attempt vs 5.9 per attempt from tcu. And they attempt roughly 10 more passes per game.

I think their pasing defenses are roughly the same, though i think tcu has had the advantage all year of keeping teams behind the chains with their run stopping.

So the way i see it you have two teams who will struggle to run but only one team that is comfortable throwing as the staple of the offense. Advantage BYU. I also like my chances to come from behind a lot better with byu than tcu.

I play tcu in the spots where they can shut down the opposing teams rush game when that is the opposing teams primary offense. Not the case with the cougars.

likely bet on byu while most will prolly like the sexy tcu pick.

added byu to strong leans where it belongs.

 

[Dmoney416]

Hmmm....we are in disagreement about an awful lot this week. That doesn't happen too often.

BOL this week VK. I think I like the Nevada bet, just wary about the defense.

 

[RetroVK]

Hmmm....we are in disagreement about an awful lot this week. That doesn't happen too often.

BOL this week VK. I think I like the Nevada bet, just wary about the defense.

You should not be concerned about the defense in this game dmoney. All of nevadas defensive woes are pass defense related and utah st cant complete a pass.

 

[JPicks]

Agree with your BYU assessment. I almost think that they've been waiting for a challenge and have been looking forward to this game to make a statement. I did notice that early on wagerline BYU is getting picked at 3 to 1 so I'm not sure who's going to be the sexy pick this week. As far as Dalton goes I read that he could have played two weeks ago vs. SDSU in an emergency and was shocked he didn't play last week. He's pretty much the key to this game IMO.

 

[Dmoney416]

You should not be concerned about the defense in this game dmoney. All of nevadas defensive woes are pass defense related and utah st cant complete a pass.

I worry either way - USU could put some drives together from time to time (hell, look at Idaho at Fresno on Saturday). Not that I trust them too actually do it consistently, but they could get some points.

I think Nevada's pass d woes are overblown, and I think their rush defense is still basically an unknown even at this point in the season. Playing Texas Tech, Missouri, NMSU, and UNLV will do that to you.

Utah St.'s rush D hasn't been bad either. They were gashed by Utah and Oregon, but they have been just fine against teams that were more their speed.

Just playing the contrarian.

 

[RetroVK]

Really quick recaps from last week .. i made 14 plays so forgive me for being brief.

As usual from worst capped to best capped


louisville WINNER -- wow , how lucky can a guy get ?? memphis had 182 more yards and 14 more first downs than the ville and i was laying 6.5 ... damn. benefited from kickoff return for td , fumble return for td , block fg for td , sod around the ville ten yard line , and one really bad spot at the end of the game. terrible capped but ill take it.

lsu +4 LOSER -- as the week wore on i felt less and less comfortable about this pick. Sure enough florida dominated lsu , making them look like little girls in the trenches where i expected the tigers to have a big edge. florida had first down and yardage edges and the box score does not do the domination justice. Never had a chance in this game. also had a bad number which made me mad.

Arizona -6 LOSER -- can twin a bet involving these guys which sucks since i already bet them this week. Stanford overcame 3 turnovers and still outgained zona by 102 yards and five first downs. Shocking game where i guess i did not take the spot into enough consideration ... neither did arizona. stanford played the better game and won by a point. had a chance for the push at the end but couldnt keep stanford out of the endzone with their backup qb in the game. ouch.

TCU loser -- yup.

utahst/sjsu over LOSER -- first 8 possessions of the game were 3 and outs. After that it went like expected for the most part. landed 37 ... slow start was death. wrong side as utah st is unable to pass the ball at all if they have no run attack. sjsu stuffed the run and exposed the aggies.

miamioh +11.5/over Winner/Loser -- capped the side well but the total never looked good. NI had a slight yardage edge and they each had 16 fd. Miami drove deep in the last minutes but failed on four straight plays near the niu endzone. a td there and maybe i can get a late fg for 20-20 overtime and win the total ... no such luck as redhawks fail late and niu takes knees. Side never trailed the number.

kansasst/tamu under 63.5 LOSER -- got a great number int he game as it got steamed down and was looking like a win as it sat on 46 with under 5 minutes to go. They then scored four touchdowns after that. Hard to cry about it though when the two teams combined for 55 first downs and almost 1000 yards of offense. So the way it lost hurt a little but it was probably lucky to be in that spot to begin with.

FAU +4.5 LOSER -- hehe needed 4.5 to play this game and i got it right before kickoff .. unfortunately. Don't want to rehash this game but fau worked really hard to lose this game. really hard.

bowling gree pick WINNER -- tough to say this was capped great as i needed a storming rally to win but by games end bgsu did have mroe yards and more first downs. still had to score 23 in the fourth to do it ... maybe this should be up higher on the poorly capped list. Like the louisville game i feel lucky to have cashed.

ucf/miamifl under WINNER --the two teams combined for 294 yards .. yeah combined .... just 22 first downs combined ... yeah combined. BAH thsi should be my best capped game of the week.

michst/nw over WINNER --756 yards and 45 first downs combined. gAme flew over the total midway through the the third quarter. as close to a no sweat over as you could want.

notre dame + 7.5 WINNER -- irish were the better team and should have won straight up but unc had an int return for td and caught some other breaks along the way to win the game. UNC has that team of destiny feel about them right now. nd had 150 more yards of offense and 6 more first downs. brutal loss for nd ml backers but i took the points.

uiowa -5 WINNER -- final score 45-9 and it could have been worse.

alright got that chore out of the way.....

also to update the two futures bets from my first "time to post" thread of the year in cfb.....

cincy won again and now sits at 5-1 ... have over 6.5 wins 2-5 gets the money ... cant beat that. yes cincy plays thirteen games.

purdue sits at 2-4 , have under 6.5 wins so purdue has to go 5-1 for me to not cash that ... i like my chances there too.

gl this week gang.

 

[RetroVK]

Agree with your BYU assessment. I almost think that they've been waiting for a challenge and have been looking forward to this game to make a statement. I did notice that early on wagerline BYU is getting picked at 3 to 1 so I'm not sure who's going to be the sexy pick this week. As far as Dalton goes I read that he could have played two weeks ago vs. SDSU in an emergency and was shocked he didn't play last week. He's pretty much the key to this game IMO.

yup agree with most of this .. when openers hti they bet byu up to -3 immediately before money came in on tcu at that number , knocking it back down.

If jackson is the qb byu wins ... the line means that dalton is playing..... otherwise i cant imagine that the books line the game like that.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread so far.

Really needed to read that BYU stuff from you guys.

Locked in Nevada and Arizona as far as the ones you played...and some others as well.

 

[RetroVK]

I worry either way - USU could put some drives together from time to time (hell, look at Idaho at Fresno on Saturday). Not that I trust them too actually do it consistently, but they could get some points.

I think Nevada's pass d woes are overblown, and I think their rush defense is still basically an unknown even at this point in the season. Playing Texas Tech, Missouri, NMSU, and UNLV will do that to you.

Utah St.'s rush D hasn't been bad either. They were gashed by Utah and Oregon, but they have been just fine against teams that were more their speed.

Just playing the contrarian.

i dunno about that. ....mizz averages roughly 5.8 a carry , unlv 4.17 a carry , texas tech 5.6 a carry , and nmsu 3.88 per carry ( possibly not updated to reflect saturday action ) ..... and nevada is yeilding just 2.39 a carry while playing all of those teams. So i think you have to give it credence. And nevada has the best run attack utah state will see all year. Throw in the spot of utah state having to travel for third consecutive week and nevada coming in angry off a home loss as a huge favorite ( no lookahead ) and you have a problem. Nevada can be had through the air .. utah st just cant do it that way. this is covered by halftime in my estimation and with nevada running attack and utah st lack of passing attack (( i wonder how much the nevada secondary is looking forward to this after seeing holbrook and company , harrell and crabtree , daniel and maclin , as well as clayton and wolfe )) , i think it builds on itself.

They might need to build an extra woodshed for this one ....

 

[RetroVK]

Great thread so far.

Really needed to read that BYU stuff from you guys.

Locked in Nevada and Arizona as far as the ones you played...and some others as well.

sweet nice to have some agreement lol.

no ohio state ?????

i'm on fire in big ten for a few years running now ....

i dont like betting against patterson but i just like the matchup ... still away fav on a thrusday .... ugh ... that has cost me money.

 

[B.A.R.]

No play on that OSU-MSU game yet.

Line came out right around where I thought it would/should.

I actually lean MSU though a bit.

 

[RetroVK]

No play on that OSU-MSU game yet.

Line came out right around where I thought it would/should.

I actually lean MSU though a bit.

hmmm why ??

You think ringer and hoyer have a bigger day than wells and pryor ?

say it isnt so !!!

 

[SportsNut]

strong leans
maryland +1
florida atlantic pick
maimi ohio +9.5
virginia tech +2
georgia tech +2
south carolina +3
byu -2

At 1st glance -

Hard to get excited with WF as road chalk especially after it closed as a hone dog in an ACC game . Maryland's loss doesnt look so bad now that UVA smoked ECU as well . Have to like the home dog here IMO ...

FAU ? Are we back to them again ? Kinda torn because WKU outplayed Ball State in the 1st H but trailed 7-0 and then it caught up to them in the 2nd H. Think WKU has a fairly solid defense especially for a mid major. Not sure FAU can fix its issues ....tough one ....I think I want to like WKU but cant say w/o research

The VT game has payback written all over it except so many key players now gone . VT definetly made improvements with Taylor as QB but the offense still doesnt scare me. Think with similiar strength defenses have to lean BC at home under a FG ...

GT = the anti Clemson play . Probably just wait to see what the QB switch does . I know some people had me looking @ GT strong but Clemson defense is fairly solid and GT offense on the road has struggled . Dont like either and if Clemson had any pulse would take them but GT defense in fairness has been sick....how bout the over in Punts ??

Not sure how SoCar can get a similiar number as Auburn vs LSU . Have to think SC or pass .....

Dont like BYU at all . Not impressed by them at all. They have a small ball offense led by Hall and the running game doesnt scare anyone . Think Dalton plays and TCU used CSU to get him back 100% IMO. A very good defense like TCU will thrive facing an offense like this IMO . Last year game @ BYU was a TD spread and think of the teams TCU improved would guess TCU -3 is the more coorect number . Cant see how BYU is graded as better @ TCU worst case equal IMO....Bottomline is the BYU schedule is awful N.Iowa , UCLA who has no offense Kevin Craft ?? , Wyoming who has less then no offense , and NM who is playing a backup QB (s) . Which NM had a TD called back which would have cut it to 14-10 and wound up with zip after a 4th down incompletion . Then BYU scored to make it 21-3 and iced it . On the road almost lost @ Washington who is not very good see what Oklahoma did to them and TCU loss @ Oklahoma doesnt look so bad . Then Utah State ? The offense struggled that game .....TCU beats them I think ....:cheers:

talk me off leans

uconn +1-- well Rutgers does suck and has shown time and time again the offense is inept .

iowa -3.5-- Wisky looks like toast but hate the hook ...

northwestern -3.5--Purdue 's offense is a mess but this might be a tad high because I recall Nwestern struggling to cover -10s vs MAC teams at home but could be wrong ...although Purdue may have as well with CMU ..

central mich -3-- Not sure but CMU unimpressive all year and WMU better then expected IMO...what wins out ?

s miss +3.5 - they looked terrible vs Boise but Rice as chalk ?

usc -1 million...dont think I like USC here with @ Zona on deck . Wash State is terrible but USC offense hasnt really exploded since UVA and that was the opener . Though losing another QB is interesting ...Just seems that USC is content to coast . What kills Utah State is SPEED . Cal killed them with that , Baylor and Oregon had mobile Qbs , and porr QB play that usally leads to field positon for its opponents . Think @ Oregon State something like 5 drives started in WSU territoy and another 5 better then Ore ST 40. Not hard to understand why teams hang 60 on them looking at that . Probably a 1st H play if I ever saw one ....

pitt -3 - Actually relaly like Pitt its time for the clock to strike midnight for Navy . How is pitt cheaper then "Butgers" ?? Cause they stole a couple ?

kentucky -10 - I was wrong about ARkansas last week thought they would hand to the game and cover to Auburn . Oh wait they did and stil won anyhow . Top notch defense makes this interesting . WOuld lean Kentucky as well

ucla -2.5- I think Stanford is really improving week to week and had them +7 at home . I think they are better on a neutral field as well . So looking at Stanford here ....

duke +6 - tough one lean Duke at the moment just fading Miami as chalk ..

iowa st +6 - Nebraska needs a win gets it here but do they cover ? Think they may ...

georgia --- i know i am not betting it but i think they crush .....then why arent you ???? vandy so overrated. They wont crack 10 pts .....Bulldawgs :cheers:

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[B.A.R.]

The VT game has payback written all over it except so many key players now gone . VT definetly made improvements with Taylor as QB but the offense still doesnt scare me. Think with similiar strength defenses have to lean BC at home under a FG ...

They already got it in ACC championship game last year

 

[RetroVK]

Added niu to my talk me offs.

see BARs thread for some reasoning. Just think it lines up situationally ( after reading his thread .. kind of missed this spot which is bad but i am still looking at a bunch this week as i had an eye problem saturday night and fell behind capping ) and the niu defense has been incredible lately. Toledo too busy partying with the ladies to worry about a little trip to dekalb. The full 7 means the books want toledo money in my estimation as well.

 

[RetroVK]

Hard to get excited with WF as road chalk especially after it closed as a hone dog in an ACC game . Maryland's loss doesnt look so bad now that UVA smoked ECU as well . Have to like the home dog here IMO ...

yup. Wake has been bad ,,, and is swank healhty now ?? Friedgen off a big loss and a bye week seems good to me as well. I like this team when you count them out and dislike them when they are given credit.

FAU ? Are we back to them again ? Kinda torn because WKU outplayed Ball State in the 1st H but trailed 7-0 and then it caught up to them in the 2nd H. Think WKU has a fairly solid defense especially for a mid major. Not sure FAU can fix its issues ....tough one ....I think I want to like WKU but cant say w/o research


well what concerns me here is that other people are in agreement with you ... that is to say the line moved form fau -3 open , ,,,, to pick pretty fast. Sunbelt games rarely move that fast at open ... maybe i should be done watching balls bounce off their helmets by now ??? just know this line is huge a few weeks ago and now just asking fau to win ..... they may have shown difference is warranted though. need to look more into w kentucky .. i know dmoney was following them a little and interested in anyone who knows jack about these guys.

The VT game has payback written all over it except so many key players now gone . VT definetly made improvements with Taylor as QB but the offense still doesnt scare me. Think with similiar strength defenses have to lean BC at home under a FG ...

i just think that VT can grind it out better and the qb can move the chains with his feet some. Feel good aobut chances of BC qb makign some errors vs this defense as i dont see how eagles get seperation on the outside. major speed edges for VT all over the field and no matt ryan to bail them out with pinpoint passing. very live dog in my opinion. would not be shocked at all by BC win at home but i like the value with what i think is the better team.

GT = the anti Clemson play . Probably just wait to see what the QB switch does . I know some people had me looking @ GT strong but Clemson defense is fairly solid and GT offense on the road has struggled . Dont like either and if Clemson had any pulse would take them but GT defense in fairness has been sick....how bout the over in Punts ??

GT rested qb for this one as he and dwyer were geting worn out. I dont believe for a second that qb was the problem for this clemson team. The offensive line gets zero push and they look like matadors screaming "ole" on passing downs. Spiller if he plays will not be 100 percent which takes the big play aspect out of the offense with the outside run and will make them too depenedent on davis between the tackles. Tough sledding vs that GT defensive line. Clemson has shown some weakness vs the run at times and wake moved it on them well. This has to be one of the biggest coaching mismatches you could ever want and johnsons team will come out and smack you in the mouth ... and it seems like clemson folds up every time that happens ... does benching harper send a bad message to the team ?? lockerroom divided ?? will fans actually boo them ?? A lot point to GT in my opinion.

Not sure how SoCar can get a similiar number as Auburn vs LSU . Have to think SC or

pass .....

Someone i respect referred to this as a situational handicappes wet dream. Think even with a few concerns i may just have to hold my nose and bet it. TERRIBLE spot for lsu.

Dont like BYU at all . Not impressed by them at all. They have a small ball offense led by Hall and the running game doesnt scare anyone . Think Dalton plays and TCU used CSU to get him back 100% IMO. A very good defense like TCU will thrive facing an offense like this IMO . Last year game @ BYU was a TD spread and think of the teams TCU improved would guess TCU -3 is the more coorect number . Cant see how BYU is graded as better @ TCU worst case equal IMO....Bottomline is the BYU schedule is awful N.Iowa , UCLA who has no offense Kevin Craft ?? , Wyoming who has less then no offense , and NM who is playing a backup QB (s) . Which NM had a TD called back which would have cut it to 14-10 and wound up with zip after a 4th down incompletion . Then BYU scored to make it 21-3 and iced it . On the road almost lost @ Washington who is not very good see what Oklahoma did to them and TCU loss @ Oklahoma doesnt look so bad . Then Utah State ? The offense struggled that game .....TCU beats them I think ....

I can understand that... tcu is more bttle tested .. no doubt. This is more of a matchup angle but believe me , i dont like the prospect of betting against patterson. With two running games i see being stymied it comes down to qb play i think .. and i like the better qb in a better passing system to get it done. Dalton has improved a lot but i think a mistake by him is more probable. Also think byu makes the most big plays offensively in this one. Not a conspiracy theorist but i also think the mwc wouldnt shed any tears if byu at utah pitted to undefeateds....

uconn +1-- well Rutgers does suck and has shown time and time again the offense is inept .

they want us to bet uconn. how can rutgers be favored ? something wrong with that team and i think it starts with talent. Some off the field issues and some chemistry issues too. i never win a bet when uconn plays in the game but that has rarely been from betting on them.....

iowa -3.5-- Wisky looks like toast but hate the hook ...

just throwing this out there ... but there is a chance that wiscy hust sucks ..... really dont trust them on the road and if stanzi can avoid big mistake , i see no reason why iowa cant win this. overrated vs underrated ... ill take underrated.

northwestern -3.5--Purdue 's offense is a mess but this might be a tad high because I recall Nwestern struggling to cover -10s vs MAC teams at home but could be wrong ...although Purdue may have as well with CMU ..

This is actually the game where the hook concerns me. wont play this at anything over 3 and really after talking this game out , dont think i play it at all. Fitzegerald is a moron , bacher looks like he has regressed and while sutton is good ... he is a bit overrated in my opinion and rarely feel confident he will finish the game for me. purdue has been tough on defense given offensive woes but i dont think purdue can exploit the northwestern run defense the way michigan state could. talk me off......

central mich -3-- Not sure but CMU unimpressive all year and WMU better then expected IMO...what wins out ?

not sure of lefevour health at thsi point either. wmich is a better football team slightly i think. just think the schedule leading up to this game lined up better for cmich and like how they matchup with wmich. probably avoiding. hope the game is on tv somewhere though .. think its a dandy.

s miss +3.5 - they looked terrible vs Boise but Rice as chalk ?

Very close to being a strong lean. Just cant get over this fascination people have with rice. THEIR DEFENSE SUCKS. Smiss should be hungry here and gets class relief.

usc -1 million...dont think I like USC here with @ Zona on deck . Wash State is terrible but USC offense hasnt really exploded since UVA and that was the opener . Though losing another QB is interesting ...Just seems that USC is content to coast . What kills Utah State is SPEED . Cal killed them with that , Baylor and Oregon had mobile Qbs , and porr QB play that usally leads to field positon for its opponents . Think @ Oregon State something like 5 drives started in WSU territoy and another 5 better then Ore ST 40. Not hard to understand why teams hang 60 on them looking at that . Probably a 1st H play if I ever saw one ....


This was more of a joke than a TMO .. i know i wont lay this much ,.... but hell .. wazzu is bad .. if i felt like losing by 40 every week i might go check my eligibility and try to walk on up there. usc can name the score.

pitt -3 - Actually relaly like Pitt its time for the clock to strike midnight for Navy . How is pitt cheaper then "Butgers" ?? Cause they stole a couple ?

leaned this way heavy coming into the day ... suaded slightly from it and will revisit in a couple of days. Navy has been pretty lucky with rutgers turnovers , wake turnovers and the blocked punts vs air force. pitt defensive line matches up decent plus they ahve experience vs option attack. might be important game for wanny after his terrible decision to go for two point conversion vs navy a year ago. maybe pitt starting to live up to expectation ?

kentucky -10 - I was wrong about ARkansas last week thought they would hand to the game and cover to Auburn . Oh wait they did and stil won anyhow . Top notch defense makes this interesting . WOuld lean Kentucky as well

first game i circled this morning. That was when i thought it would come out under a td. i think they effectively priced me out as i just cant trust the kentucky offense enough to lay this. hoped for more line value with arkansas win and kentucky loss. no such luck

ucla -2.5- I think Stanford is really improving week to week and had them +7 at home . I think they are better on a neutral field as well . So looking at Stanford here ....


i admit on paper that stanford looks like the side .. this is more of a gut feeling and personal knowledge of ucla different quality of play at home. probably wont play it but i do think ucla is the side.... my capping is better than my feelings though. likely a no play.

duke +6 - tough one lean Duke at the moment just fading Miami as chalk ..

every time i think they are a value they cover .. but i never had money on them .. just have a mental block about betting on duke. Big miami florida capper thinks duke has shot at su win ... sirwinzalot likes , gyne likes , pags likes .. you like ... lots of quality opinions like duke and i see why .. just not sure i can get beyond my bias here. maimi fl defense looked good yesterday though .. cutcliffe is an underrated coach though and duke is off a bye and i have a feeling they ahve a better than average crowd. hmmm

iowa st +6 - Nebraska needs a win gets it here but do they cover ? Think they may ...

cyclones are one of those jekyll hyde teams hoe and away ... draining loss for huskers on back to back road trip. Arnaud improving each week and nebraska defense cant be trusted as road chalk. do i want to trust iowa st though ?

georgia --- i know i am not betting it but i think they crush .....then why arent you ???? vandy so overrated. They wont crack 10 pts .....Bulldawgs

if it keeps falling it may hit a point where i bet it.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Nevada and Arizona look sexy

 

[Dmoney416]

i dunno about that. ....mizz averages roughly 5.8 a carry , unlv 4.17 a carry , texas tech 5.6 a carry , and nmsu 3.88 per carry ( possibly not updated to reflect saturday action ) ..... and nevada is yeilding just 2.39 a carry while playing all of those teams. So i think you have to give it credence. And nevada has the best run attack utah state will see all year. Throw in the spot of utah state having to travel for third consecutive week and nevada coming in angry off a home loss as a huge favorite ( no lookahead ) and you have a problem. Nevada can be had through the air .. utah st just cant do it that way. this is covered by halftime in my estimation and with nevada running attack and utah st lack of passing attack (( i wonder how much the nevada secondary is looking forward to this after seeing holbrook and company , harrell and crabtree , daniel and maclin , as well as clayton and wolfe )) , i think it builds on itself.

They might need to build an extra woodshed for this one ....

That may be the averages, but they simply don't run all that much:

Texas Tech game: 46 passes, 22 runs, 5.4 yards per carry

Missouri: 36 passes, 29 runs, 4.6 yards per carry (many of Missouri's runs were by back-ups due to the blowout. De'Vion Moore had 10 carries for 26 yards. 26 of his 28 carries on the year have come against Nevada (69-17), SEMO (52-3), and Nebraska (52-17). He didn't play in their close games against Illinois and Ok. St. So, Nevada not facing their best here)

UNLV: 38 passes, 23 runs, 2.3 yards per carry (I'll give you this one)

NMSU: 47 passes, 36 runs, 2.9 yards per carry (skewed both ways: Colston had 24 carries for 118 yards, but had a 59 yarder. On the other end, Holbrrok had 5 carries for -24.)


I just think they can be beat on the ground if you commit to it. Their season numbers are quite skewed by the Grambling St. game. Again, just playing contrarian.

 

[RetroVK]

Nevada and Arizona look sexy

Nothing is ever easy though nevada is one of my favorites of the year...

 

[RetroVK]

That may be the averages, but they simply don't run all that much:

Texas Tech game: 46 passes, 22 runs, 5.4 yards per carry

Missouri: 36 passes, 29 runs, 4.6 yards per carry (many of Missouri's runs were by back-ups due to the blowout. De'Vion Moore had 10 carries for 26 yards. 26 of his 28 carries on the year have come against Nevada (69-17), SEMO (52-3), and Nebraska (52-17). He didn't play in their close games against Illinois and Ok. St. So, Nevada not facing their best here)

UNLV: 38 passes, 23 runs, 2.3 yards per carry (I'll give you this one)

NMSU: 47 passes, 36 runs, 2.9 yards per carry (skewed both ways: Colston had 24 carries for 118 yards, but had a 59 yarder. On the other end, Holbrrok had 5 carries for -24.)


I just think they can be beat on the ground if you commit to it. Their season numbers are quite skewed by the Grambling St. game. Again, just playing contrarian.

I did not get to see the nmsu game or texas tech game.... but i was impressed by defensive line play in the unlv game and thought it was the only part of the team that showed up in missouri. I also watched the aggies some this past weekend and they are clueless offensively. The qb had happy feet and the blocking up front is what has led to this problem. Now they were playing in heavy wind at sjsu but they couldnt complete a pass. This is major class relief for the defense ... missouri and texas tech are in the top five in total offense and nmsu is somewhere in the top 30. Even unlv poses more problems for them than utah state. So while i see your point about grambling state ( still think the run defense has been impressive ) skewing them downward quite a bit , I also think the defensive stats are skewed from facing a bunch of powerhouses offensively. Not sure there has been a team in the nation that has faced that many good offenses to this point in the year.

We have also not discussed the overwhelming advantage that nevada has running the ball. Should just slice through utah state , especially late when utah state gets exhausted. utah state is giving up 4.67 a carry although they have faced tough competition. The offense that they faced that most resembles nevada was oregon who racked up 688 yards in the game and 7.7 yards per carry. So they dont match up well with the run spread.

Looking at common opponent unlv you see significant differences as well.

Small correction to earlier post its actually second consecutive road game .... the previous game to sjsu was home to byu. so many cougar fans there that i forgot it was a home game.

One thing i like about nevada in this spot is that when they get the lead and just run the ball that it builds on itself. Utah state rates to get exhausted.

Takes a lot for me to lay big numbers ... but when a game lines up like this one you have to fire at the books.

 

[Dmoney416]

I did not get to see the nmsu game or texas tech game.... but i was impressed by defensive line play in the unlv game and thought it was the only part of the team that showed up in missouri. I also watched the aggies some this past weekend and they are clueless offensively. The qb had happy feet and the blocking up front is what has led to this problem. Now they were playing in heavy wind at sjsu but they couldnt complete a pass. This is major class relief for the defense ... missouri and texas tech are in the top five in total offense and nmsu is somewhere in the top 30. Even unlv poses more problems for them than utah state. So while i see your point about grambling state ( still think the run defense has been impressive ) skewing them downward quite a bit , I also think the defensive stats are skewed from facing a bunch of powerhouses offensively. Not sure there has been a team in the nation that has faced that many good offenses to this point in the year.

We have also not discussed the overwhelming advantage that nevada has running the ball. Should just slice through utah state , especially late when utah state gets exhausted. utah state is giving up 4.67 a carry although they have faced tough competition. The offense that they faced that most resembles nevada was oregon who racked up 688 yards in the game and 7.7 yards per carry. So they dont match up well with the run spread.

Looking at common opponent unlv you see significant differences as well.

Small correction to earlier post its actually second consecutive road game .... the previous game to sjsu was home to byu. so many cougar fans there that i forgot it was a home game.

One thing i like about nevada in this spot is that when they get the lead and just run the ball that it builds on itself. Utah state rates to get exhausted.

Takes a lot for me to lay big numbers ... but when a game lines up like this one you have to fire at the books.

When you say QB, are you referring to Borel or Setser?

I agree that their passing defense numbers are going to be skewed by these powerhouse offense. Despite some of their rushing numbers, I don't really consider them powerhouse rushing teams.

No arguments here concerning Nevada's rushing attack vs. Utah St. defense.

I just fear that Utah St. puts up 24 or so here.

 

[RetroVK]

When you say QB, are you referring to Borel or Setser?

I agree that their passing defense numbers are going to be skewed by these powerhouse offense. Despite some of their rushing numbers, I don't really consider them powerhouse rushing teams.

No arguments here concerning Nevada's rushing attack vs. Utah St. defense.

I just fear that Utah St. puts up 24 or so here.

I was referring to Borel. He runs their offense better although setzer throws a better ball. You hae a problem no matter who they play for utah state. Borel is their best rushing option but couldn't hit the broadside of a barn unless it had the number 53 written on it. With Setzer you get better accuracy and better reads of coverage ( plus more patience as borel takes off quickly when first read is covered. ) but you lose all of your playmaking ability in the run game as well as the mobility to avoid sacks from their matador oline play on passing dowbs. A lot of Setzer decent looking pass numbers have come after they are down 30 or more , he simply doesnt do it when they need it. So its a catch twenty two for them ... play Borel and have no chance in the pass game or play setzer and have no chance in the run game. Team is trying to build future around Borel so expect him to play the most snaps.

There is no doubt that nmsu , mizz , unlv and tech are passing teams ... so yeah ... they are not great rushing teams .. but they are certainly better at it than utah state when they want to.

utah state 13 yards rushing from rb position vs utah
utah state 47 yards rushing from rb position vs unlv
utah state 71 yards rushing from rb position vs oregon
utah state 261 yards rushing from rb position vs idaho haha
utah state 94 yards rushing from rb position vs byu
utah state 41 yards rushing from rb position vs sjsu

They cant not play borel ..... setzer has negative total yards rushing for the year as he cant do the qb rushing and he cant avoid the sacks. Pick your poison with the QB position , imo.

Also , speaking of skewed stats ... almost half of utah states rushing numbers came vs idaho .... in their other five games they average about 85 yards per game and have yet to have a 100 yard rushing rb in any game outside of idaho.

I just fear that Utah St. puts up 24 or so here.

I don't think 24 from utah state is enough for aggies backers to cover ...........

 

[RetroVK]

ADDED

Maryland moneyline +105 ( cris )
Virginia Tech +3 ( cris )

 

[E.T.G.]

Likely going to be against you with Cal

 

[RetroVK]

Likely going to be against you with Cal

looks like CAL is starting the lesser of the two QB's this week , Best has a bad arm injury that could lead to fumbles in whatever amount of time he plays , and CAL is atrocious team ATS on the road in recent years. Granted you have a big coaching edge here and probably overall talent edge.

I like backing Arizona in the 7pm pacific home games when it matters and when they are NOT expected to crush. Bad big home favorite but a good home dog and at pick-to-minus/plus one , i think this qualifies more as a home dog situation. 5-1-1 in that role recently.

Going to be crazy in tucson.

Good health on that one.

 

[E.T.G.]

looks like CAL is starting the lesser of the two QB's this week , Best has a bad arm injury that could lead to fumbles in whatever amount of time he plays , and CAL is atrocious team ATS on the road in recent years. Granted you have a big coaching edge here and probably overall talent edge.

I like backing Arizona in the 7pm pacific home games when it matters and when they are NOT expected to crush. Bad big home favorite but a good home dog and at pick-to-minus/plus one , i think this qualifies more as a home dog situation. 5-1-1 in that role recently.

Going to be crazy in tucson.

Good health on that one.

Coaching advantage, yes. I like Cal coming off a bye too, they faced this same situation last yr and routed Zona. As far as what I've read about Best, here is probably going to play. Sure the fumbles could be a worry, might not too. Vereen is still a threat as well so they have 2 good backs. They face a defense that was toasted by the run last week (286yds). They've rebounded nicely from the Maryland debacle and ever since the 4th quarter of the Maryland game they have been playing good football. I feel like they have a lot of momentum coming off the bye. Who has Zona played this year?

Idaho, Toledo, New Mexico, UCLA, Washington, Stanford.

Versus

Mich St, Wazzu, Maryland, Colo St, ASU

I will wait to see how much this line goes up but I like Cal ML

 

[RetroVK]

I think CAL is overrated. And I also do not think they are playing well at all right now. They got slapped hard by maryland. And since then , here are the boxscores vs two bad football teams.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>7-19</TD><TD>6-11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>351</TD><TD>348</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>226</TD><TD>159</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>18-36</TD><TD>15-26</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>6.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>189</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>2.7</TD><TD>6.3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-30</TD><TD>4-25</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>36:03</TD><TD>23:57</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>4-16</TD><TD>2-10</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>236</TD><TD>277</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>165</TD><TD>198</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>20-35</TD><TD>17-28</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>4.7</TD><TD>7.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>71</TD><TD>79</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>2.2</TD><TD>2.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>7-45</TD><TD>4-33</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>30:37</TD><TD>29:23</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Why are they playing better ???

 

[nawlins51]

Good thread fellas. Always good info here.Good job VK bringing everyone together.

VK,going against you on a couple. I love BC in this one along with Western Michigan.I will look over my info again but just can't find a reason to take VT or CMU that I like.

GL buddy.Solid as always.

 

[E.T.G.]

Cal has gotten healthy in the bye, they have momentum. In those 2 games above, they were successful stopping the run. The secondary held Carpenter down. I wish Zona had won so I could of gotten more value. I think Zona may be a play against a huge line versus USC at home next week off a loss but not this week.

 

[RetroVK]

Heh .. guess i am the contrarian this week.

Don't think BC has what it takes to move the chains vs VT.

I also dont think BC has played anyone outside of GT who they lost to. NCST , kentst , rhode island , and ucf are a combined 3-14 against fbs competition. This is a major step up in competition level. VT is much more battle tested with games at ecu , at nebraska and at unc. Team seems to have rallied behind Tyrod taylor who gets better each week.

looking at a game that is likely to be lined high thirties , maybe low forties ?? and that makes every point valuable as well.

Also in a tight game like this i like to think i have a special teams edge with VT and Beamer even if that has dropped off significantly the last year.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Now I've got to start thinking about at what point I sell a little of my GT +4 bet back.

I got down pretty heavy on it, but with today's revelations, I don't know what kind of fire I'm messing with.

 

[RetroVK]

Now I've got to start thinking about at what point I sell a little of my GT +4 bet back.

I got down pretty heavy on it, but with today's revelations, I don't know what kind of fire I'm messing with.

if you dont like your ticket , iwill buy it from you at cost


have a nice middle bet if it is gt -3 or more ....

 

[hoopsstar22]

I still think GT rolls.

But getting a 9000lb Mouse off your back sure does have to feel good. Davis might actually get the ball.

 

[O-State]

Some Maryland-Wake thoughts, I capped it and it was a no play.
----I really like the Va Tech pick Kyle.

MARYLAND
DELAWARE----271-121 rushing, 126-128 pass, 2-2 TO’s, Steffy 2 picks
MID TEN ST-----146-118 rush, 211-284 pass, 1-3 TO’s, Turner 3 picks
CALIFORNIA-----141-38 rush, 156-423 pass, 2-1 TO’s, Turner 0 picks
EASTERN MICH--231-171 rush, 255-282 pass, 3-2 TO’s, Turner 2 picks
CLEMSON---------123-221 rush, 172-151 pass, 3-0 TO’s, Turner 0 picks
VIRGINIA----------79-201 rush, 223-226 pass, 0-2 TO’s, Turner 1 pick

WAKE FOREST
BAYLOR ---156-94 rushing, 220-156 pass, 5-2 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 2
OLE MISS----81-107 rush, 253-267 pass, 3-1 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 2
FSU-----------59-102 rush, 217-118 pass, 7-2 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 5
NAVY--------43-192 rush, 270-51 pass, 2-6 TO’s, Skinner 4 picks, int’d 0
CLEMSON---156-21 rush, 186-177 pass, 1-0 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 1


The body of work says Maryland is the better running team here. Grobe on the bye week was very disappointed in the run and put some work in it. They ended up with 156 on Clemson, 33 more yards than Maryland had on Tigers. Run D, edge Deacons. Held Clemson to 21 yards while Maryland allowed 221, also allowed 171 to EMU, 201 to Virginia, over 100 for Delaware and Mid Ten. WF also faced same great rush teams, Baylor, Ole Miss, FSU, Navy, Clemson. Pass offense, the numbers are pretty similar here, although I’d put more trust in senior Skinner. Pass D, edge Wake Forest. Wake maybe best in country. Maryland has yielded 284 to Mid Ten, 423 to Cal, 282 EMU, 226 to Virginia. Also when capping any Wake game, look at opposing qb’s pick percentage. Steffy started the first game and then Turner came in for Mid Ten and has thrown 6 int’s. Wake has intercepted the ball from opponents 10 times and only played 5 games this year. Opposite of the spectrum, look at Skinner, 0 picks every game except for Navy where he had 4, amazing.
--I initially leaned Maryland slightly but stats say Wake here. Situationally maybe Maryland has the edge coming off bye, a loss, returning home, but both teams will be ready. Terps have some good talent, but I think this is a really really solid Wake team here, and the body of work says Wake has the better defense and a more proficient quarterback. Honesty though, I could see either team winning this game.

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

if you dont like your ticket , iwill buy it from you at cost


have a nice middle bet if it is gt -3 or more ....

Ive had this game circled for quite some time and current events only make it stronger imo. Come second half they are going to want no part of this GT machine and will be looking for a place to lay down and all the nonsense gives them their cover.Gutless and heartless teams dont like being cut/ blocked for 4 qtrs, this one gets ugly. Time to take the rubber band off the bankroll.

 

[nropp11]

central mich -3

i've been keeping my eye on this one for weeks and there are some rumors floating around about 6 football players who raided a frat house and beat the sh*t out of someone and then were arrested this past saturday night/sunday morning

not sure who the fball players were

also, dan lefaveour has a mild ankle sprain that occured in practice last week and he re-aggravated it in the temple game and was held out for pre-cautionary reasons

i like CMU, but the injury, the distractions, and the momentum that western michigan can carry over from last week's miracle pretty much has this game as a scratch off for me at the moment.

GL

 

[RetroVK]

Mainetenance.... eliminated usc , byu , georgia and central michigan as possible plays

usc - really was never seriously considering laying this kind of number

georgia -- liked it but got priced out , was expecting a lower line , kept considering and just decided to let it go.

cmich -- actually after looking into some details started to lean the other way. started looking more like a coin flip bet. not enough value.

byu -- i decided i cant lay midweek road chalk ( pick ? ) in a conference game against a team that is more battle tested , stuffs the run and is well coached. Has to be a better spot for my money. So despite liking some matchup aspects i think i will watch this one as a mwc fan and just take note of how much superior the level of play is in this conference compared to the pac10 , bigeast , and acc. Have said all year that i am a believer in tcu .......

 

[RetroVK]

I still think GT rolls.

But getting a 9000lb Mouse off your back sure does have to feel good. Davis might actually get the ball.

hard for me to bet when it has mioved a full td. still might though.

 

[RetroVK]

Some Maryland-Wake thoughts, I capped it and it was a no play.
----I really like the Va Tech pick Kyle.

MARYLAND
DELAWARE----271-121 rushing, 126-128 pass, 2-2 TO’s, Steffy 2 picks
MID TEN ST-----146-118 rush, 211-284 pass, 1-3 TO’s, Turner 3 picks
CALIFORNIA-----141-38 rush, 156-423 pass, 2-1 TO’s, Turner 0 picks
EASTERN MICH--231-171 rush, 255-282 pass, 3-2 TO’s, Turner 2 picks
CLEMSON---------123-221 rush, 172-151 pass, 3-0 TO’s, Turner 0 picks
VIRGINIA----------79-201 rush, 223-226 pass, 0-2 TO’s, Turner 1 pick

WAKE FOREST
BAYLOR ---156-94 rushing, 220-156 pass, 5-2 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 2
OLE MISS----81-107 rush, 253-267 pass, 3-1 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 2
FSU-----------59-102 rush, 217-118 pass, 7-2 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 5
NAVY--------43-192 rush, 270-51 pass, 2-6 TO’s, Skinner 4 picks, int’d 0
CLEMSON---156-21 rush, 186-177 pass, 1-0 TO’s, Skinner 0 picks, int’d 1


The body of work says Maryland is the better running team here. Grobe on the bye week was very disappointed in the run and put some work in it. They ended up with 156 on Clemson, 33 more yards than Maryland had on Tigers. Run D, edge Deacons. Held Clemson to 21 yards while Maryland allowed 221, also allowed 171 to EMU, 201 to Virginia, over 100 for Delaware and Mid Ten. WF also faced same great rush teams, Baylor, Ole Miss, FSU, Navy, Clemson. Pass offense, the numbers are pretty similar here, although I’d put more trust in senior Skinner. Pass D, edge Wake Forest. Wake maybe best in country. Maryland has yielded 284 to Mid Ten, 423 to Cal, 282 EMU, 226 to Virginia. Also when capping any Wake game, look at opposing qb’s pick percentage. Steffy started the first game and then Turner came in for Mid Ten and has thrown 6 int’s. Wake has intercepted the ball from opponents 10 times and only played 5 games this year. Opposite of the spectrum, look at Skinner, 0 picks every game except for Navy where he had 4, amazing.
--I initially leaned Maryland slightly but stats say Wake here. Situationally maybe Maryland has the edge coming off bye, a loss, returning home, but both teams will be ready. Terps have some good talent, but I think this is a really really solid Wake team here, and the body of work says Wake has the better defense and a more proficient quarterback. Honesty though, I could see either team winning this game.

I think if you break things down home and away it looks a bit different. good points though. this line makes wake forest a pretty big favorite if they were at home .. i dont think so. we'll see.

 

[RetroVK]

Ive had this game circled for quite some time and current events only make it stronger imo. Come second half they are going to want no part of this GT machine and will be looking for a place to lay down and all the nonsense gives them their cover.Gutless and heartless teams dont like being cut/ blocked for 4 qtrs, this one gets ugly. Time to take the rubber band off the bankroll.

yeah physical teams make clemson quit.

 

[RetroVK]

i've been keeping my eye on this one for weeks and there are some rumors floating around about 6 football players who raided a frat house and beat the sh*t out of someone and then were arrested this past saturday night/sunday morning

not sure who the fball players were

also, dan lefaveour has a mild ankle sprain that occured in practice last week and he re-aggravated it in the temple game and was held out for pre-cautionary reasons

i like CMU, but the injury, the distractions, and the momentum that western michigan can carry over from last week's miracle pretty much has this game as a scratch off for me at the moment.

GL

i eliminated as well today. i really have an interest in watching this game for some reason. hope it is on tv this week. i really havent seen much of either team so that makes me scared a bit of betting it as well. There are actually a few things pointing to wmich here after further analysis.

i'm with you ...scratched it out.