2008 cfb - time to post my week 8 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
illow:
Homer
Well the line has dropped a ton into the area that makes mizzou a huge favorite if they were at home and i dont see that. Why can okie state get to daniel and longhorns cant at home ??
place will be crazy as its first home game at number 1 since the eighties.
doubt they can not get up for this game ... so spot isnt a concern .. sually win after ou anyway.
they can run and play keep away the way okie st did.
I think probably a difference in the way I use the term. Texas Tech comes off a performance where they were outplayed but managed to win in OT . Now they travel . That to me is never a good spot just like a team who blew a lead at home and has to travel. I didnt mean from an emotional level. I dint mean to imply they wouldnt be up to play just sort of the makings of a mini slump IMO ...:cheers:
I leaned TT at first till I looked at what type games each was coming off . A&M can move the ball and possibly limit the TT possessions . Who knows . I am gonna wind up with at least 40 plays and dont love anything yet ...:cheers:
Alright, lets agree to disagree....
for discussion purposes...
Using the the 6 point swing...we have Mizzou as -2 at home..not a huge fav...
Valid point I will not try and deny. No doubt in my mind if they played at noon last wek(or 11 am for you Central timezone guys) and Texas played late they win outright...they had Saturday night on their minds...no doubt in my mind..still close game but they win.
Yes they do. And who have they played? Generally garbage or half ass teams. Not this year.
Discuss:shake::shake::shake:
I expected more Kyle..LOL
I was in a discussing mood tonight..lol..jk
Line was 7...look back to lst week when guys like RJ and others thought this was a tossup line(PK) depending on who said what...
Texas was great last week...I won...happy...old boy going out at LB was huge(sorry I forget names after some crown). That opened up a lot in the 2nd half...big time...I man big time...if he stays in..its a lot closer and maybe some of that BS officiating comes into play in all honesty...
In Vanzacks words...to term...overlay...
if hyou wanted Mizou this week all year..last week worked out perfect...Texas won in great fashion and the Tigers got upset...line got adjusted huge whether its right or not...the opening line makes Texas favored in Mizzou...
Last week..no Horns homer would touch the Tejas +7 it seemed...scurred..it was all of us outsiders that did...Now this is UT 2005 all over again outta owhere...
Do I like this team? Yes. Thats why I went on them pretty big last week.
At the line of 4..which is what you are discussing..imo its a no play either way..in all honesty...
big value at 7...some value at 3 with Texas..but in thi situiation....I don;t think so..
This site is trolled with UT guys..and its great...but bottom line is...7 days ago...if anyone saw Mizzou plus 4..bingo..play it...and if they saw the early 7...monster play...
Well, lets go to line theory.
Like I said, the experts here at CTG had this line much lower...so obviously we have sharp guys here..as has been proven..so the "vegas" sharps lowered it a bit..and Bobs minions did as well.
FWIW - Think -4 is more accurate . I dont really use 3 pts as implied HFA only with medicore teams . Most times it closer to about a -4 or -4.5 pt edge but its mythical anyway its just from looking at teams who play a home and home tend to see 4 more universal in foots and baskets ....
I would probably make Missouri -1.5 on a neutral field so thought Texas -3 , -3.5 or -4 was correct ( really -3 but for arguements sake say that range) . Played a small amount at +7.5 -130 . I think if Texas wins it by 1-4 pts .
Lot of upsets last week so guess more stronger moves this week on maybe what was adjusted ..
Have a couple of nice tickets with favorable lines .....BOL
I would probably make Missouri -1.5 on a neutral field so thought Texas -3 , -3.5 or -4 was correct ( really -3 but for arguements sake say that range) . Played a small amount at +7.5 -130 . I think if Texas wins it by 1-4 pts .
Lot of upsets last week so guess more stronger moves this week on maybe what was adjusted ..
Have a couple of nice tickets with favorable lines .....BOL
nawlins51
I bet Basketball
Nut your a solid capper but why Clemson.I played GT.This Clemson team is a mess. Its Anarchy overthere. BAR talked about trap games. I agree with him on this. Maybe they set the line low to make Sharps think Clemson.Then maybe they set it low to bait GT backers.So aside that what do you see in Clemson.Everything I looked at is going to GT.GT is the square play but it did open with GT as a dog. Early bets drove it to a fave. I am just curious for your lean on Clemson.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
1896 guys ... that was the last year they won in austin.
i heard that texas usually watches tape on mondays but they were in there on sunday night as a team watching mizzou tape.
Texas is rotating nfl talent in on that dl that is keeping them fresh all game .. a lot of texas success defensively in second halves this year is adjustments but a lot of it is having fresh talented bodies in the second halves.
Traditional handicapping says that if you get the better rushing team on offense and the better rushing defense that you have a distinct advantage in small lined games. I realize that it matters less as much as tigers throw but still. Only TCU is holding opponents to less yards per carry than texas at this point.
longhorns are 52-4 su over last 56 home games.
Who is the great team that missouri has beaten over this nice little stretch they have been on the last year and a half ??
I understand the betting at the 7 , and i am not betting texas at the 4 or anything ... and i understand that even if texas is ahead a bit late that mizz has a good backdoor type team. And i understand that after texas beat ou that mizz looked ahead and it hurt them for the okie lite game. I understand that Daniel has something to prove in regards to recruitment. I realize that Texas has been a better team when not given credit than when in a position of accolades. But let me ask this .. what would the line be if mizz had won and texas lost ?? tigers a favorite in austin ?? no way.
also when i said huge favorite before i guess i exxagerated a tad but i would make the swing from home field to home field a lot more than just 6 points.
also .. who has mizz played ?? okie st at home was a loss and illinois isn't quite what most expected before the season started.
Someone want to tell me the last time that missouri had a TRUE road game and beat a ranked opponent ??
i just dont see why of all the games on the board that this one stands out for a 3-4 point move.
guess i am a homer.
i heard that texas usually watches tape on mondays but they were in there on sunday night as a team watching mizzou tape.
Texas is rotating nfl talent in on that dl that is keeping them fresh all game .. a lot of texas success defensively in second halves this year is adjustments but a lot of it is having fresh talented bodies in the second halves.
Traditional handicapping says that if you get the better rushing team on offense and the better rushing defense that you have a distinct advantage in small lined games. I realize that it matters less as much as tigers throw but still. Only TCU is holding opponents to less yards per carry than texas at this point.
longhorns are 52-4 su over last 56 home games.
Who is the great team that missouri has beaten over this nice little stretch they have been on the last year and a half ??
I understand the betting at the 7 , and i am not betting texas at the 4 or anything ... and i understand that even if texas is ahead a bit late that mizz has a good backdoor type team. And i understand that after texas beat ou that mizz looked ahead and it hurt them for the okie lite game. I understand that Daniel has something to prove in regards to recruitment. I realize that Texas has been a better team when not given credit than when in a position of accolades. But let me ask this .. what would the line be if mizz had won and texas lost ?? tigers a favorite in austin ?? no way.
also when i said huge favorite before i guess i exxagerated a tad but i would make the swing from home field to home field a lot more than just 6 points.
also .. who has mizz played ?? okie st at home was a loss and illinois isn't quite what most expected before the season started.
Someone want to tell me the last time that missouri had a TRUE road game and beat a ranked opponent ??
i just dont see why of all the games on the board that this one stands out for a 3-4 point move.
guess i am a homer.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i guess ...
There is a chance i am looking through burnt orange sunglasses on this one.
Interesting card, VK.. with ya on zona and potentially a few more. GL today
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Can I just thank all you guys for a fantastic thread.
I learn so much off you gents.
Brilliant stuff,I hope you get the rewards your work deserves.
I learn so much off you gents.
Brilliant stuff,I hope you get the rewards your work deserves.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
San Jose St. ML?
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
^if the number's right that will be sjsu will be my biggest play in college this year
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
dont' think you're being a homer at all...this line makes zero sense. should be 12. i don't wanna hear missouri was looking ahead...bullshit...they got their asses kicked and ok st set a blueprint on how to get after daniels. texas might have 700 yards of offense. i expect this game to be a blowout...gladly laid the 4...regardless of the outcome it's a jokeline. guess missouri is a bit of a public darling, but i don't even think texas is as good as most people do and i still love them here. we'll see
I think the Clemson defense has performed well and showed well @ Wake minus the 1st Quarter. The offense just has to do something to take pressure off them as time and time again it was like Clemson and I mean @ WF the defense needed to hold , needed to hold , needed to not allow points . That will ware down a defense just as much .
I dont like backing CLemson with the coaching change but the more I read about the situation the more it seems like a collective sigh of relief. Thinking that the players will step up and continue to play hard both Maryland and WF losses were because the offense didnt seal the game .
I think the line move is pure adjustment after the Bowden firing . Not sure about GT on offense both teams with injuries tokey offensive players and a sloppy effort vs GWebb is excusable on some level but that was very bad and you wonder does that give Clemson a huge edge in the 1st H ? New era at Clemson so could be a very positive and crazy attitude early vs a team who was in a fog last week and now travels .
I dont think people needed a reason to fade Clemson as most were lining up to make GT a play .
If I play Clemson (or 1st H , 1st Q) just a play on the low end of my scale. Not something I would convince someone on just something I feel like taking stab at .
Alot of GTs road games were TD dogs to teams like Clemson good defenses and so-so offenses . So from +6 , 7 , +8 to +1 , PK , -2 etc alot of value is lost and not impressed with GTs play they caught both Duke and Miss State in good spots but also were relatively cheap vs those teams . Here we are looking at GTech being somewhere bewteen -10 and -13 pts favs IMO based on the current -2.5(say -11/--1.5 for arguements sake ...bigger then Miss State and close to what Duke was
:cheers:
Might be best to stay away alot of ?????here both ways IMO :cheers:
Its an interesting game logic wise . I agree Missouri looked exposed vs Okie State but does the fact they played a near perfect game @ Nebraska weigh into it ? Everyone was so down on TCU because of ther egame @ CSU but no one factored in that they played anear flawless game the week before vs SDST . Some times things just happen which cant be controlled . Not a letdown but its hard to duplicate near perfect efforts . Most pitchers struggle after perfect games , no hitters or even near no hitters . Just the way it works that next time there is a dropoof in production .
I only mention that cause I wonder if thats what happened to Missouri . Along with making to much of the game vs Texas and Okie State . Daniels calling opposing QBs and such . Just play the game and dont pay attention to the other stuff ...
Also Texas was a TD dogs and few expected them to beat OU which was on a neutral field . How neutral doesnt really matter but its not the same as beating OU at home . Texas rallied and still think Texas is 4-7 pts worse then a healthy OU team on a neutral field which would put them at 8 to 11 pt dogs @ OU....
Interesting game to see who is real . I have soem +7.5 -125 (may have said -130 earlier ) and probably just ride it out thinking I had Texas about -3 in this game .......but Texas could be better then percieved impressive was there win @ CU because of how they won it ........
BOL today !:cheers:
Also great work VK and everyone involved. Basically no reason for me to start a discussion thread when you guys have it all covered would only be clutter . Thats why I leave it you gents why a fuck up a good thing .....Ilike just commenting here and there . :cheers:GL
O
O-State
Guest
:cheers:
Good to see the effort paying off for ya, nice day
Good to see the effort paying off for ya, nice day
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Grind4mine-- we definitely had the officials on our side in the arizona game. they almost looked like part of the team. nice cash for us.
manchesteruk -- agree , we had a great thread this week in here and a great week of discussion in the whole forum. Lets be honest , withough patting ourselves on the back too much , that this is the best site for cfb handicapping DISCUSSION on the entre internet. The group of members we have here don't just tell us what they have bet but why they have bet. Big difference in my opinion.
dmoney - sjsu definitely deserves a look this week. not the game i was referring to though.
broadwayjoe-- should have pulled out the burnt orange dollar bills and bet this. very impressive game from texas. they are combining passion with execution. Hope they are not peaking too soon
sportsnut - first thanks for talking me off of the uconn +1 bet that i was considering earlier in the week. i never would have gotten 2.5 as it would hae been locked in earlier than the late line move. i would have lost. also grats on the tamu first half bet you were discussing making if you made it. hope you had a good week and hope you stop in and visit my thread next week. really provide a lot of information and angles for all of us to look at.
o-state -- thanks bud. took awhile but finally had a big week.
manchesteruk -- agree , we had a great thread this week in here and a great week of discussion in the whole forum. Lets be honest , withough patting ourselves on the back too much , that this is the best site for cfb handicapping DISCUSSION on the entre internet. The group of members we have here don't just tell us what they have bet but why they have bet. Big difference in my opinion.
dmoney - sjsu definitely deserves a look this week. not the game i was referring to though.
broadwayjoe-- should have pulled out the burnt orange dollar bills and bet this. very impressive game from texas. they are combining passion with execution. Hope they are not peaking too soon
sportsnut - first thanks for talking me off of the uconn +1 bet that i was considering earlier in the week. i never would have gotten 2.5 as it would hae been locked in earlier than the late line move. i would have lost. also grats on the tamu first half bet you were discussing making if you made it. hope you had a good week and hope you stop in and visit my thread next week. really provide a lot of information and angles for all of us to look at.
o-state -- thanks bud. took awhile but finally had a big week.
TroyStacks
18" Pythons
great job bro way to go we all seemed to do well this week thats great!
Great job VK . Happy the effort paid off and really dont think any of yours were close. Will do in the future and I did play A&M 1st H and game . I hate the big cards I always wind up giving away so much . Pitt was my favorite play of the week and my testicles shrunk when it started bouncing off 3 . Had it but that was a pounder I thought ....
Hope you did well to Pags ! BOL fellas ...
Hope you did well to Pags ! BOL fellas ...
