2008 cfb - time to post my week 8 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
definitely getting there isn't it ?
i never win a bet involving that team for or against. Call me supersticious ....
line is moving out of control.....
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Someone just piss punched Clemson.....
Pinny juice just dropped from -116 to -105 on GaT -2.5
5Dimes just dropped to -2.
Pinny juice just dropped from -116 to -105 on GaT -2.5
5Dimes just dropped to -2.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
going to be a struggle for me to bet .. from +4 to -2 or more is a huge loss of value.....
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
What a bunch of head fakes out there....
I just tried to buy more -2, and they informed me the line changed back to -2.5, just that fast.
Pinny dropped to GaT -2.5 -103, and is now back up at -107....
All in the last 5 min.
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Agree on 110% of what you said here. :shake:
sirwinzalot
The wisdom of Towlie
Kyle,
Good luck this week! I really like those bottom two totals. I think Tennessee might cover that over by themselves.
Good luck this week! I really like those bottom two totals. I think Tennessee might cover that over by themselves.
G
Gyno
Guest
Its been great working with you Kyle.. GL this week, I think it will be a good one.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
How do you piss punch someone or something? Sounds cool
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Not sure what is causing this move other than opinion.
I notice some good cappers on the other side of this game. Upon review I havent found anything to change my opinion.
Stanford loss is fresh in peoples minds , the maryland loss is not. That is all that I can figure. You also have people who are tired of drinking the Arizona koolaid every year at the start of the season. Have to admit myself that they are a hard team to believe in given past seasons underachieving.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I guess you have figured out by now how much i respect your opinion sirwinzalot. So great to know you like those totals bets.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yup great working with you as well, Gyne.
We will have a great week !!! and if not we will make it back at a later date heheh.
We have the long run on our side either way.
Appreciate all your thoughts every sunday and am glad to get the chance to bump ideas off one another.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am in love with Minka Kelly , if you know of who I speak.
Grats on beating midland.
You guys should crush lubbock by 40 friday.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
As you know , Iowa has been a talk me off lean all week. Only I find that i am being talked onto it instead !!!
Which is what this forum is all about to me .. sharing info and insight , evaluating what others share and making the best possible decision. BAR sent me over the top on this play , TEE loves it , Sirwinzalot endorses it , pags kind of likes it , cruz kind of likes it , i see it on mags list , etc etc and visit their threads to see some thoughts on this game .... there are a few on the other side like signal and dmoney but i got enough confirmation and insight to go ahead and play this in the morning,,,, so iowa will be a play.
Which is what this forum is all about to me .. sharing info and insight , evaluating what others share and making the best possible decision. BAR sent me over the top on this play , TEE loves it , Sirwinzalot endorses it , pags kind of likes it , cruz kind of likes it , i see it on mags list , etc etc and visit their threads to see some thoughts on this game .... there are a few on the other side like signal and dmoney but i got enough confirmation and insight to go ahead and play this in the morning,,,, so iowa will be a play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Also eliminated a few more games
NIU -7 -- basically a late addition to TMO and i am just not confident enough in the niu qb situation to lay the number and too much of the bet is situational for me which loses a lot if the main qb isn't there ( is he ? ) ... too much uncertainty for my money and throw in my disdain for MAC favorites of this size and i knocked it off.
kentucky -- basically this was a game i had circled prior to line release and really liked the spot for them but the line was just too sharp and i dont want to lay this many points with an offense as anemic as kentucky
iowa st +6 -- really not much of an excuse in eliminating this play ... ihave a bad feeling about it for some reason. situationally it looks awesome with clones returning home after the baylor beatdown and nebraska demorlized after ot loss to tech after playing so well. Iowa st is one of those teams that is jekyll and hyde depending on whether they are home and away and nebraska defense is less than inspiring when laying road chalk ... why am i eliminating this again ?? oh yeah ... just have a gut feeling on this game that makes me not want to bet it ... just kind of stinks and i cant get the box score below out of my head either ...
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>6-15</TD><TD>3-11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>3-3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>257</TD><TD>435</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>176</TD><TD>288</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>21-41</TD><TD>22-26</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>4.3</TD><TD>11.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>147</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>50</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>2.9</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>10-70</TD><TD>7-39</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>24:20</TD><TD>35:40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
6 really really bad quarters in a row from iowa state .
NIU -7 -- basically a late addition to TMO and i am just not confident enough in the niu qb situation to lay the number and too much of the bet is situational for me which loses a lot if the main qb isn't there ( is he ? ) ... too much uncertainty for my money and throw in my disdain for MAC favorites of this size and i knocked it off.
kentucky -- basically this was a game i had circled prior to line release and really liked the spot for them but the line was just too sharp and i dont want to lay this many points with an offense as anemic as kentucky
iowa st +6 -- really not much of an excuse in eliminating this play ... ihave a bad feeling about it for some reason. situationally it looks awesome with clones returning home after the baylor beatdown and nebraska demorlized after ot loss to tech after playing so well. Iowa st is one of those teams that is jekyll and hyde depending on whether they are home and away and nebraska defense is less than inspiring when laying road chalk ... why am i eliminating this again ?? oh yeah ... just have a gut feeling on this game that makes me not want to bet it ... just kind of stinks and i cant get the box score below out of my head either ...
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
</TD><TD>6-15</TD><TD>3-11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>3-3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>257</TD><TD>435</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>176</TD><TD>288</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>21-41</TD><TD>22-26</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>4.3</TD><TD>11.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>81</TD><TD>147</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>50</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>2.9</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>10-70</TD><TD>7-39</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>24:20</TD><TD>35:40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
6 really really bad quarters in a row from iowa state .
nawlins51
I bet Basketball
VK I am taking NIU off my list also along with WMU.
Please talk me off taking FSU Thursday. I am loving it but -10 on the road makes me frickin nervous the more I think about it.I also thought of this.Tell me what you think of this parlay Thursday night.
FSU ML + TCU ML
FSU ML + BYU ML
I will play them both at 2 units a piece. I come out on top going 1-1 but FSU must win.I know they can win but I am still nervous.Give it to me buddy.
Please talk me off taking FSU Thursday. I am loving it but -10 on the road makes me frickin nervous the more I think about it.I also thought of this.Tell me what you think of this parlay Thursday night.
FSU ML + TCU ML
FSU ML + BYU ML
I will play them both at 2 units a piece. I come out on top going 1-1 but FSU must win.I know they can win but I am still nervous.Give it to me buddy.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
preaching to the choir brutha ....
BAR told me that he got a tip from Scooter McDougle that NIU was the play ......
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I'm not a fan of those types of parlays but i do think that FSU wins.
When i saw the fsu line i immediately thought ncstate was going to get a strong look from me and i still dont think fsu -10 on the road should be given much consideration. with that said , after evaluating some matchups i just decided it is a no play.
i will give you some factors pointing to both sides and you can weigh them how you wish ... some of these stats might be a week behind ...
pro ncstate side
-Have an extremely quality coach in Tom O'brien up against a walking lobotomy in bobby bowden
-midweek double digit home dog
-As road chalk outside of durham the seminoles are 2-6 since 2005. You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find fsu laying DD road chalk vs a team not named duke.
-last six games fsu vs ncstate ... bolded ncstate home games
2007 fsu 27 ncstate 10
2006 fsu 20 ncstate 24
2005 fsu 15 ncstate 20
2004 fsu 17 ncstate 10
2003 fsu 50 ncstate 44 double ot
2002 fsu 17 ncstate 7
-Again , excluding duke games .. prior to last game at miami .. you have to go back to 2003 to find a true road game where they scored 30 plus. A huge stat when considering laying DD
-- fsu has an amazingly bad 13 turnovers in the 3 games they have played vs fbs opponents. ncst has forced 15 turnovers in 6 games.
-- offensively ncst is a whole lot better with russell wilson at the helm
-- team is really banged up has had off week to heal up
pro florida state side
--FSU is just about leading the nation in yard sper play allowed and ncstate is a trainwreck at yards per play
--fsu rungame matches up extremely favorably to ncst defense
--ncst has had qb protection issues and FSU averages 3 sacks per game
--combination of ncst inability to convert third downs ( one of nations worst at under 30% ) coupled with FSU power run game could lead to tired defense in second half
--speed edges all over the field for fsu
--ponder appears to be improving each game
--ncst is still banged up, terrible depth issues
--fsu currently in top 30 in both total offense and total defense whereas ncst is in bottom 15 in total offense and total defense.
--motivation , as fsu has more to play for at this point
:36_11_6:
nawlins51
I bet Basketball
Yeah I am not a fan either of those parlays.VK, thanks for posting this info.I do appreciate it. I decided not to play it.Might hop on board TCU with yall.Plus TCU falls under my against the public theory..lol.Shit Teedub have you seen that shit card in the NFL. My goodness it sucks. Best lean I got is the Bears.
Thanks bro. I hate eating that much chalk on the road unless I am really confident.Maybe the numbers I compiled on FSU are misleading.Don't know but sure won't play.:cheers:
nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
only thing i worry about here is the QB situation as well, but this is kill's QB who he recruited who he brought in for the purpose of his system, something he was very good at SIU for.
otherwise, this is about as situational as one could get for northern
-toledo in letdown mode
-toledo in disarray after bar fight or whatever the hell happened
-northern 9-1 on homecoming's last ten out
-toledo won this game 70-21 last year, they were up 42-7 and proceeded to score 21 in the 3Q still. Kill brought it up 8 times in the weekly presser and wasn't even the coach here last year.
i hate chalk, but this is probably one spot that i can't pass up
gl.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
Interesting card this weekend VK; not sure what I will be on, but already have taken Nevada and I don't see a way that I won't be on Pitt either. Keeping an eye on who will be Navy's starting QB while at the same time not wanting the spread to slip to 3'...
Not sure I'll play Berkeley, but that is clearly the one game I disagree with you. Stoops is 4-15 SU in the month of October. He is one of those coaches whose teams actually get worse as the season progresses...last weekend was the beginning of that...again. Love Cal off the bye w/Best returning against that weak front 7. The only advantage I see for 'Zona is the passing game and HFA...maybe it'll be enough.
Good luck.
Not sure I'll play Berkeley, but that is clearly the one game I disagree with you. Stoops is 4-15 SU in the month of October. He is one of those coaches whose teams actually get worse as the season progresses...last weekend was the beginning of that...again. Love Cal off the bye w/Best returning against that weak front 7. The only advantage I see for 'Zona is the passing game and HFA...maybe it'll be enough.
Good luck.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yup situationally there is little doubt this is a play. You even add some angles above that i hadnt considered to the situation.
Game is off my radar for the moment but if you get good info on the qb situation send me a pm or post it in here please.
thanks nropp
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Sort of the game of concern for me right now, If Best is at full health it makes a big difference as far as how much i like zona. A lot of good cappers around here like the CAL side and i understand why. Stoops and Arizona give wildcat backers all the reasons in the world to be skeptical of them.
Need an energized defensive effort and Tuitama to last the whole game to win and i am counting on both... oh and i need longhsore to not get hurt ROFLMAO.... as i think riley is better at this point and poses mroe problems for Zona defense.
It is a game where you have two teams that are similar in that they play WAY better at home than they do on the road ... and Zona is the home team for an evening start time .. love the licquored up fans !!
Trust me i wont be shocked if cal wins in the least.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Added
iowa -3 -120
georgia tech -2
miami ohio +10
Decided to go ahead and bite the bullet on georgia tech. In my estimationthe coaching change only helps here and i can forgive this as a loss a lot easier than had i laid off and gt won. Hard taking thsi much the worst of it on a game i liked prior the coach firing that led to the line move but since i still think its a good bet i went ahead with it. Ironically it reminds me of GT at notre dame last year where i just laid off when i lost so much value and they trounced. Survive the first quarter emotion , smack clemson in the face and win the game. paul johnson never has excuses but clemson always seems to and have an easy one to fall back on here. the other two game swere alway going to be plays and just decided to go ahead and play them ... for every few small money bets coming in on wiscy there seems to be money holding this off the -3 -110.... so just bought it although i suppose there is a chance the late money comes in on wiscy and a late 3 might appear. really looking like i am almost done for this week with just a few plays left to consider.
iowa -3 -120
georgia tech -2
miami ohio +10
Decided to go ahead and bite the bullet on georgia tech. In my estimationthe coaching change only helps here and i can forgive this as a loss a lot easier than had i laid off and gt won. Hard taking thsi much the worst of it on a game i liked prior the coach firing that led to the line move but since i still think its a good bet i went ahead with it. Ironically it reminds me of GT at notre dame last year where i just laid off when i lost so much value and they trounced. Survive the first quarter emotion , smack clemson in the face and win the game. paul johnson never has excuses but clemson always seems to and have an easy one to fall back on here. the other two game swere alway going to be plays and just decided to go ahead and play them ... for every few small money bets coming in on wiscy there seems to be money holding this off the -3 -110.... so just bought it although i suppose there is a chance the late money comes in on wiscy and a late 3 might appear. really looking like i am almost done for this week with just a few plays left to consider.
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
Kyle's card alost as big as mine :36_11_6:
I have made more of my own picks this week and let's hope we have a winner together.
Liking Zona, tOSU, Maryland,VPI, Pitt, Miami O, Iowa.
I have check marks beside FAU and So Carolina. ( in your vernacular, these are called "talk me offs" .
Likely bet Rutgers wins ATS again vs UConn
No opinion So Miss and UCLa.
On Dook.
GT is probably a pass game for me. Tooo much uncertainty. Old coach and old OC gonzo. Clemson could come up with some things to surprise GT. Death Valley tough place to play bla bla bla.
GL- As you can see, if you win - I win.:cheers:
I have made more of my own picks this week and let's hope we have a winner together.
Liking Zona, tOSU, Maryland,VPI, Pitt, Miami O, Iowa.
I have check marks beside FAU and So Carolina. ( in your vernacular, these are called "talk me offs" .
Likely bet Rutgers wins ATS again vs UConn
No opinion So Miss and UCLa.
On Dook.
GT is probably a pass game for me. Tooo much uncertainty. Old coach and old OC gonzo. Clemson could come up with some things to surprise GT. Death Valley tough place to play bla bla bla.
GL- As you can see, if you win - I win.:cheers:
Heh! That's me on TCU. I wanted to find reasons to not bet BYU, and I have been given a plethora of reasons to bet TCU by JP, tee, and others.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
thanks for stopping by .... suffice it to say ,,, i hope you win.
Considered passing on GT too ... wanted a 3 , then wanted to do a ml and now stuck with this number. one coach fired , the other is paul johnson. that should be enough.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Several at this point.
1. lost line value
2. concerned with turnover problems
3. concerned with offensive line of s carolina in a game after defensive line of lsu got humiliated. south carolina giving up about as many sacks as anyone in nation
4. south carolina lack of a rushing game. 109 yards a game and just 3.14 a carry.
Still likely on s carolina .. might end up being a ml play.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
1) I felt the line was short, wanted 4-4.5 and never got it and I don't understand why. I say the spread to a couple of my friends who watch CFB and they say "haha LSU wins by 14" but yet this line is dropping so I'm holding out hope that it rises back up other wise your better off with the ML or nothing.
2) Have only won the turnover battle in 1 game, very reasonable concern.
3) I would say handicap the game knowing they will probably be giving up 3 sacks, its happened all year. I don't think it changes anything really except if the sack results in a turnover or out of FG range or something like that.. Here is the thing with sacks being a stat, if you sack the QB 3 times in the game but didn't get much pressure on him the other times he drops back, the QB and the passing game are still going to be effective. But, if you pressure the QB every play and disrupt his feel, his timing, his vision, but don't get him, you are still altering the play. LSU has 9 sacks on the year, but I'm sure they got in the QB's face a whole bunch. Same thing with SC, the front 4 doesn't have a ton of sacks but they get pressure. South Carolina has faced OM and UK DL in b2b weeks, I will say LSU is better than both but SC had time to throw on both of them and there were open WR's but the QB has to actually hit them. They also gave Smelley time to throw against UGA DL so yes, they've given up a lot of sacks but as I explained above it can be a little misleading.
4) This running problem gets blamed on the OL by a lot of fans and people who don't watch the games but the RB's are more to blame than the OL. They are slow to the hole and lack cutback ability. Look for a Freshmen (Eric Baker) who has played just a little bit this year to get some time because he is quick with good vision and cutback ability but he is small back. Garcia might pick up some yards with his feet to add to the rushing total but I don't see them doing anything special at all.
I think in order to get any value you back, prob have to wait until Saturday
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Appreciate the expert response , ETG.
Yeah , i was hoping the name LSU would bring in money.
Would be very curious to see the sportsinsight numbers on this game. The line move is more than a point here....... when a game goes from 3.5 to 2.5 that is a significant move ... books hate crossing the 3.
Are you saying that Mike Davis gets a lot less carries this week ?? And are they considering the smaller , quicker back for a long term solution or just because of what they saw last week in the lsu/florida game ?
only bets i make on saturdays are halftimes .. i like to be locked in friday before bed. hehe.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
I wouldn't mind seeing the SI numbers either, I am just surprised its dropped, really expected it to go up.
Mike Davis is the starter, he will get his chances in the game to run the ball but they will look to mix in Baker and see what he can do. They think he has the most upside of everyone but he came in from prep school so he has only been here since the spring and he is just getting down the offense. He has played a little bit, made a nice catch against UGA before he got leveled, play some against UAB but I think starting versus LSU he will start seeing more action... I just think the RB's prob won't total over 75.
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e142454 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e2e2e2" onclick="testHit('e142454', event)"><TD id=score width=50>
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>381 LSU
382 South Carolina
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>11012
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>70%
30%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>27%
73%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
first number is AST and 2nd is ML
8:00P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>381 LSU
382 South Carolina
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>11012
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>70%
30%
</TD><TD id=mlpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>27%
73%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
first number is AST and 2nd is ML
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Heres the thing, I feel like SC can play with LSU, they've shown time and time again they can hang around with teams when they had less talent and experience than they do now. The talent gap isn't that large anymore but South Carolina also has to go out there and not beat themselves and they have to take advantage of every opportunity and keep the crowd in this game. The place will be very loud as long as they are in the game. At the end of the day when I look at this game as a fan I say, This is still LSU and I give them their deserved respect until shown otherwise.
I think they can win, I don't know if they do win, but I'm not confident enough to bet it as say I am Baylor +17
I think they can win, I don't know if they do win, but I'm not confident enough to bet it as say I am Baylor +17
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Went ahead and eliminated uconn , northwestern and FAU as possible plays.
uconn -- see the game thread about that game .. some good posts in there , including one from sportsnut that i found compelling. Just not confident enough that rutgers has thrown it in to lay chalk on the road with a young qb and questionable talent.
northwestern-- After revisiting the game i adjusted my original line and find no value in the books line anymore. simply does not cut the mustard.
FAU -- too much uncertainty for me. When one program seems to play with heart every week and the other team doesn't , i am in no hurry to play the heartless guys. RZ efficiency continues to be a problem for FAU and the QB has regressed about as much as a qb possibly cna year over year. WK performances vs some tough competition was eye opening. BLEH ... dont feel like putting my money on it .. despite the power rating differences.
uconn -- see the game thread about that game .. some good posts in there , including one from sportsnut that i found compelling. Just not confident enough that rutgers has thrown it in to lay chalk on the road with a young qb and questionable talent.
northwestern-- After revisiting the game i adjusted my original line and find no value in the books line anymore. simply does not cut the mustard.
FAU -- too much uncertainty for me. When one program seems to play with heart every week and the other team doesn't , i am in no hurry to play the heartless guys. RZ efficiency continues to be a problem for FAU and the QB has regressed about as much as a qb possibly cna year over year. WK performances vs some tough competition was eye opening. BLEH ... dont feel like putting my money on it .. despite the power rating differences.
