2008 cfb - time to post my week 8 card so far

[RetroVK]

Heres the thing, I feel like SC can play with LSU, they've shown time and time again they can hang around with teams when they had less talent and experience than they do now. The talent gap isn't that large anymore but South Carolina also has to go out there and not beat themselves and they have to take advantage of every opportunity and keep the crowd in this game. The place will be very loud as long as they are in the game. At the end of the day when I look at this game as a fan I say, This is still LSU and I give them their deserved respect until shown otherwise.

I think they can win, I don't know if they do win, but I'm not confident enough to bet it as say I am Baylor +17

hehe ...

they played even with uga .... and i think that team is a bit ahead of lsu right now because of the qb position.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks .. so looks like the big money is on s carolina .. that makes me happy.

Yup

 

[RetroVK]

Eliminated all but south carolina from my leans list and i have also decided that i WILL be playing south carolina this week in some capacity. Likely the ml at this point but if the game gets push back , i will take the 3 points.

smiss -- spot may not be great. i have bad feel for cusa right now. lost some liine value.

ucla -- tired of losing to stanford. dont trust ucla offense and it would be a complete gut play and not a capped play. i dont do well on those.

duke -- lost HUGE line value. bias against duke cost me time and there is a humongous difference between +6 and +4 in this game. Convinced of a major talent edge that gives me pause as well. This should probably have made the card but i was wishy washy when the line was good and cant bet it now. could revisit if the line moved back my way.


That is pretty much it for me this week unless some major injury news or weather news creates a play. Adding s carolina sometime in next two days. So have some free time to research for and help anyone who needs it the rest of the week. Feel free to ask for opinion if you want it.

 

[nropp11]

kyle,

you look at the idaho/la tech game? La tech going to a new QB...

asking them to cover 20?

 

[RetroVK]

kyle,

you look at the idaho/la tech game? La tech going to a new QB...

asking them to cover 20?

I looked at this game from the perspective of taking Idaho plus the points. I don't think latech deserves a look at laying that number.


Thoughts on qb switch
As far as the qb switch , I think it is a good move by dooley who i consider an underrated coach. Taylor Bennett has been nothing short of terrible ... bad to the point where he makes it look like rusty Smith is playing well. I think the switch does two important things for the team....... 1.) gives them energy and a change to excited about and 2.) gives thema qb with some mobility to make plays with something other than his arm. Jenkins is more mobile than Bennett and the only qualities that one would expect Bennett to excel in ( leadership and decision making ) have been faults instead of strengths. With that said , you would think that there is a learning curve of sorts here and that things might not be pretty early in the game offensively which not only has immediate ramifications in the game but may lead to giving idaho hope throughout the game ... thereby giving full effort for an entire 60 minutes. Tough for me to evaluate how this plays out for them. Will offense be more vanilla with jenkins in there ? Will idaho tackling problems make jenkins mobility more of a factor ? Will team take to the switch and be more energized or feel as if qb is scapegoated ... or will it be divided locker room etc etc ??

Thoughts on homefield
LATECH is a different team home and away. It is really night and day but they also have not been all that great ATS as a home favorite like you might expect. But you do have to take into consideration that you have two teams that play drastically differently home and away. Idaho has dropped their away games by an average score of 50.5 to 16.5. Those losses include trips to utah state and sdsu ... so the vandals have shown the ability to get blown off the field by crappy teams like latech before. latech at home has only played one fbs opponent but they did defeat an sec school in miss state. In addition to normal road woes this is a particularly tough road trip for WAC teams going down to ruston. Other than road game across the pond to hawaii , this is toughest road spot for idaho this year. This is obviously one of the biggest reasons i decided not to bet idaho.

Thoughts on latech on offense

The reality is that the big line has to be completely based on idahos defensive numbers. latech simply doesnt score points. They are averaging 9.75 points per game vs fbs opponents. Granted they have played a slew of tough defenses with kansas , missst , hawaii and boise st and three of those games were on the road but still. A major class drop in defense faced here and despite their average output , they did manage 22 at home in the one game played at home. And lets face it , idaho is giving up 47 damn points a game. In addition , idaho had one player on defense this year that rated to get any type of conference honors and that was Shiloh Keo but he is now out for the year so that is the only player they couldnt afford to lose on the defensive side of the ball and they did. The one aspect of offense that latech does well is run the ball and that should only improve with the mobile qb. latech rushes for about 160 a game and idaho is getting torched for 230 yards a game and over 6 yards per carry . That is where latech can take advantage of the idaho defense the most. There is no way in hell that i personally would trust an offense with latechs numbers and a new qb to score a ton of points against anyone ( and idaho qualifies as anyone hehe ) enough to lay this many points unless i was completely confident that they could stop the opponent.

Thoughts on idaho on offense

Idaho certainly showed signs last week. The first thing i want to mention is that deonte jackson is finally at decent health. Between either missing full games or having limited availability and carries , the vandals have missed this kids production a lot. But he seemed back to himself last week and enderle performed decently as well. At some point you had to figure that this offense would gel a little given the number of returning starters in the mix. Idaho averages more yard per game offensively than latech does.. but again that has to be taken with a grain of salt when you play defenses like sdsu and utah state. They also average around 19 first downs a game which i find pretty good considering. I think they can move the ball enough here to get a couple of scores and as jackson gets more healthy as the season progresses , i would expect the production to get mroe healthy as well. latech is better defensively than the number show in my opinion. In the one game that i got to see extensive amounts of plays in , they hit hard and moved well to the point of attack. I think their stats are skewed somewhat by two factors ... 1. that they have played some powerful offenses on the road at boise and at kansas and 2. that they get exhausted from being on the field too much. Certainly the offense rates to score more in this game and the defense rates to be fresher but i am not entirely convinced by what my eyes have seen because it was the miss state offense on the road that i was watching them defend. I would expect several scores from idaho here , especially considering that where latech has struggled the most defensively is vs these spread type offenses that also like to run.

Thoughts on Special Teams

I actually like latechs chances of getting a big return or two in the punt return game. Both placekickers are ATROCIOUS but i think this favors the idaho side of the bet as the kicker for latech should see more time on the field. I really like the conley kid punting for idaho but he has to be careful of outkicking coverage here as the latech special teams has guys that can hurt idaho on punt returns.


Thoughts on coaching

Simply put , i prefer dooley

thoughts on mindsets

Depending on expectations the way a team loses can have a different effect ont he teams psyche in my opinion. I think that after the loss at fresno st last week that idaho might be feeling ebtter about themselves where as latech won the opener and hasnt beaten an fbs opponent since. One team is getting their stud rb back into form and the qb is gaining confidence and the other team is amid a qb switch , which is often a really bad sign as to emotional state of a team and/or their lockerroom.

Series notes

Since the two teams have only played 3 times i will just list the results. away team has won every game. Technical trend points to an idaho cover.

2007 in moscow .... idaho 16 latech 28
2006 in ruston ...... idaho 24 latech 14
2005 in moscow .....idaho 38 latech 41

last years game latech had a 438 - 285 yardage edge and a 22-17 fd edge

Final thoughts

I really have a lean to idaho and the points here as i am sure you have gathered by reading the above comments in this post. I just think that when you lay this many points with a team that you need to be confident of one of two things .... Either the favorite is going to score at will or the favorite is going to shut down their opponent. I don't really see either of those scenarios given data available and having seen what i have seen. If Idaho scores 14-17 ... in that scenario i am asking latech to score 35-38 to cover which is possible ... but what if idaho scores 20 ??? But i believe the qb switch will help latech. It is literally impossible for this guy to be a ton worse than taylor bennett at this point. Idaho defense is swiss cheese and this is toughest road trip ( geographically ) yet which makes me dislike supporting them with cash. Cannot emphasize enough how important i think returning home is here for latech. If i had to predict a final score i would go with 37-20 LATECH. There are a lot of motivational factors involved that i have a hard time determining that if you can determine then it might make things clear. Is Idaho going to emotionally be up following the decently played loss at fresno or will they be down following that game , with another tough roadie , while losing their defensive leader ? And , will latech be more inspired by returning home with a new qb at the reigns or will they be deflated at what the season ahs become after promising season opener win vs miss st ? But i dont have confidence in what either team will do and i like to bet with confidence. hope that i helped you out a little as far as providing some different points of view regarding a few things here. i have personally decided that i am not betting washington state or idaho the rest of the year.... if i had not made that decision , i would be strongly considering idaho here. because i made that decision , it did not even appear on my TMO as i am not going to do it. over 6 yards a carry they give up ... ouch.

 

[nropp11]

you are my hero

 

[RetroVK]

Wanted to post a pm that Dmoney sent me in response to a question i asked him concerning western kentucky. WKU is a team that I simply don't know enough about to my own shame but dmoney provided me with some great insight and i thought i would share it with you guys. I think its important for us all to share with each other to make more money ... that is the reason most of us come here to CTG. Thanks again , Dmoney for helping me. here is the pm .....

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by vegaskyle
one of few guys that i know who has any knowledge of western kentucky

have an opinion on what to expect in this weeks game ?
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I actually wanted to bet WKU in this game - figured I'd get +5 or so. It opened at +3.5, and shockingly jetted toward a PK right away.

This is actually a very interesting game. Gun to my head, I take FAU, but its a stay away game for me most likely.

First of all, the HFA for WKU shouldn't be large - they barely drew 16,000 for #25 Ball St. So I'd expect something less here.

In terms of being battle tested, its about equal. FAU has had to travel to Texas, Michigan St., and Minnesota. WKU has played @Indiana, @Alabama, @Kentucky, @Va. Tech, and vs. Ball St.

First let's focus of the WKU defense, which is ahead of most of the other D's in the conference.

They have given up at least 24 points to each D-I foe they faced, but they have been a relatively solid D:

Indiana: 31 points, 450 total yards (keep in mind that about a third of these yards came on 75 and 62-yard TD runs by Lewis), 1 turnover forced.

Eastern Kentucky: 13 points scored, 248 total yards (only 20 rushing), one turnover forced.

Alabama: 41 points, 557 total yards (equal in rushing/passing), 2 turnovers forced.

Murray St.: 9 points, 239 total yards (only 11 rushing), 4 turnovers forced.

Kentucky: 41 points (1 special teams score), 398 yards, 1 turnover forced.

Virginia Tech: 27 points, 293 yards, 1 turnover forced.

Ball St.: 24 points, 355 yards, 1 turnover forced.

So, this basically strikes me as a hard-working defense that ultimately lacks the talent. However, they have forced at least one turnover in every game (impressive given their competition), and they have held Ball St, Va. Tech, Kentucky, and Indiana under 200 yards passing. Every non-I-AA foe has had at least decent success running the ball.

Unfortunately, FAU will be the worst D-I foe they have faced to this point.

On offense, many numbers are deceiving. 87 of WKU's 130 points have come against Eastern Kentucky and Murray St. They have also yet to score more than 13 against a I-A opponent.

QB David Wolke has been the starting QB since the Eastern Kentucky game. On the year, he is 65-120 (54.2%) for 671 yards, 5 TD, and 4 INT. Keep in mind that 254 of these yards came against Murray St., so they are not explosive in the passing game on most occasions. He has been held under 100 yards three times (although only 4 attempts against Kentucky as KJ Black will spell him at times). He has, however, not thrown more than 1 INT in any game.

This offense had been ver predictable and easy to stop until the 2nd half on the Virginia Tech game. That is when WKU threw a wrinkle into this offense to make it more unpredictable.

Two players are the key to this offense: Bobby Rainey and Dexter Taylor. They will run several RBs, but these are the guys that open the holes. It's not unusual for WKU to have five guys get at least 5 carries in a game.

Rainey is the leading rusher on the team despite having only 36 carries on the year. He had only 11 carries prior to the Kentucky game, and then:

@Kentucky: 9 carries, 99 yards
@Va. Tech: 8 carries, 54 yards
vs. Ball St.: 8 carries, 59 yards

Needless to say, he seems to be the big play guy in the running game.

Dexter Taylor is the RB they use in the wildcat formation. If you look at their first five games, you won't see him anywhere: no kick returns, nothing (I think he had 2 rushes for 5 yards total in the first five games).

Then, trailing 27-3 to Va. Tech in the 2nd half, they let Dexter Taylor run the wildcat. It worked. They still lost 27-13, but Taylor ran 14 times for 96 yards.

Here is an excerpt from the game recap:

"Western Kentucky frequently opted to go without a quarterback on the field and instead snapped the ball directly to tailback Dexter Taylor. The Hilltoppers kicked a field goal late in the third quarter to make it 27-6, then recovered an onside kick.
"We took a lot of pride in trying to match one of the best special teams in the country," coach David Elson said. "We executed it well."
The Hilltoppers (2-4) then drove 50 yards, again without a quarterback on the field, before David Wolke came on to throw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Tristan Jones that made it 27-13 with 11:58 left in the game."

They would use this formation with success in the Ball St. game as well. Taylor ran six time for 43 yards and went 2-2 passing for 8 yards. Nothing earth-shattering, but the point was to throw a wrinkle into the offense so that the defense can't always key into the pro-stlye offense that they run.

What really keeps me off FAU here is that WKU could have easily beaten Ball St. outright. Look at WKU's 1st half drives against Ball St. (keep in mind Ball St. was up 7-0 at the half):

at 15:00 of the 1st quarter:

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3>Western Kentucky at 15:00</TD><TD>BALL</TD><TD>WKU</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 20</TD><TD>David Wolke pass complete to Jessie Quinn for 9 yards to the WKent 29.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 1 at WKU 29</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for 15 yards to the WKent 44 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 44</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 40.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 14 at WKU 40</TD><TD>David Wolke pass complete to Jake Gaebler for 14 yards to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 46</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 4 yards to the BalSt 42.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 6 at BALL 42</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for 3 yards to the BalSt 39.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 3 at BALL 39</TD><TD>David Wolke pass complete to Quinterrance Cooper for 8 yards to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 31</TD><TD>Dexter Taylor rush for 2 yards to the BalSt 29.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 8 at BALL 29</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for 2 yards to the BalSt 27.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 6 at BALL 27</TD><TD>Dexter Taylor rush for 12 yards to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 15</TD><TD>Ball St penalty 5 yard offside accepted.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 5 at BALL 10</TD><TD>Dexter Taylor rush for 7 yards, fumbled, recovered by BalSt in the endzone.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

at 8:11 of the 1st quarter:

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3>Western Kentucky at 8:11</TD><TD>BALL</TD><TD>WKU</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 32</TD><TD>Westrn Kentucky penalty 3 yard holding accepted, no play.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 13 at WKU 29</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for 4 yards to the WKent 33.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 9 at WKU 33</TD><TD>David Wolke pass complete to Quinterrance Cooper for 13 yards to the WKent 46 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 46</TD><TD>Stephen Willis rush for 15 yards to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 39</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 10 yards to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 29</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 5 yards to the BalSt 24.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 5 at BALL 24</TD><TD>Tyrell Hayden rush for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 25.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 6 at BALL 25</TD><TD>David Wolke pass incomplete.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 6 at BALL 25</TD><TD>Tanner Siewert 42 yard field goal MISSED.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
at 13:50 in the 2nd quarter:

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3>Western Kentucky at 13:50</TD><TD>BALL</TD><TD>WKU</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 30</TD><TD>David Wolke pass incomplete.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>7</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 10 at WKU 30</TD><TD>David Wolke pass incomplete.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 10 at WKU 30</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 13 yards to the WKent 43 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 43</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 3 yards to the WKent 46.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 7 at WKU 46</TD><TD>David Wolke pass incomplete.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 7 at WKU 46</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 6 yards, fumbled, recovered by WKent at the BalSt 48.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 1 at BALL 48</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for 25 yards, fumbled, recovered by BalSt at the BalSt 21.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

at 8:27 of the 2nd quarter:

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 32</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 14 yards to the WKent 46 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>7</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 46</TD><TD>Marell Booker rush for 1 yard to the WKent 47.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 9 at WKU 47</TD><TD>David Wolke pass incomplete.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 9 at WKU 47</TD><TD>David Wolke pass complete to Jake Gaebler for 12 yards to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at BALL 41</TD><TD>Tyrell Hayden rush for 4 yards to the BalSt 37.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 6 at BALL 37</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 1 yard to the BalSt 36.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 5 at BALL 36</TD><TD>David Wolke rush for 2 yards to the BalSt 34.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>4th and 3 at BALL 34</TD><TD>David Wolke pass incomplete, Westrn Kentucky penalty holding declined.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last possession (running the clock out):

<TABLE class=tablehead id=playTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 17</TD><TD>Tyrell Hayden rush for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 16.</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>7</TD><TD class=bi align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 11 at WKU 16</TD><TD>Dexter Taylor rush for 3 yards to the WKent 19.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>3rd and 8 at WKU 19</TD><TD>Dexter Taylor pass complete to Tyrell Hayden for 11 yards to the WKent 30 for a 1ST down.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>1st and 10 at WKU 30</TD><TD>David Wolke sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the WKent 19.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD noWrap colSpan=2>2nd and 21 at WKU 19</TD><TD>Bobby Rainey rush for 8 yards to the WKent 27.</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD>End of 2nd Quarter</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So, basically I feel that this team has gotten a shot in the arm on offense since the introduction of the wildcat. And, since they finally faced an average defense in Ball St last week (as opposed to the Alabama's, Kentucky's, and Va. Tech's of the world), they moved the ball a little bit. I fear they could do the same thing this week.

As for special teams, Tanner Siewart is the usual punter and kicker. He averages 36.8 ypp. He 7-11 on FGs on the year. He is perfect from inside 40, but 4-8 on 40+ tries (3-6 from 40-49, 1-2 from 50+).

One last thing. This team like to go for it on 4th down often. They have 14 4th down attempts this year (6th most in the country). As you can see from the Ball St. play-by-play, they are apt to go for it at anytime inside enemy territory, and they will avoid 50+ yard FGs unless they feel it is necessary.

Hope this helps. :cheers::shake:

 

[The One]

Bol guys.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Wow...love the card, VK. Think Cal/Zona is the only thing we're opposite on...so now i understand why you asked me about my thoughts on the game...but we have quite a few others in common.

:cheers:

 

[B.A.R.]

Was wondering if D-Money could get more specific.

 

[RetroVK]

Bol guys.

thanks theone and welcome

 

[RetroVK]

Wow...love the card, VK. Think Cal/Zona is the only thing we're opposite on...so now i understand why you asked me about my thoughts on the game...but we have quite a few others in common.

:cheers:

yeah loved your card .... i tend to focus on the differences instead of the similarities ...

if you win this week i win i think..... just dont make it the cal game.

 

[RetroVK]

Was wondering if D-Money could get more specific.

:36_11_6:


yeah for a two sentence pm to him , i got my moneys worth !!! no pun intended.

 

[pags11]

kyle,

I like your card quite a bit...as always you do a great job with your research...GL this weekend brother...

 

[RetroVK]

kyle,

I like your card quite a bit...as always you do a great job with your research...GL this weekend brother...

Great writeups this week from you pags.

You are going to rake it in as usual.

 

[SportsNut]

Okay havent heard a peep about this game :

Cuse @ USF :

To me -24 looks damn cheap .

In 3 meetings Cuse has scored 0 , 10 , 10

Last year Dantley started and had 276 through the air when Cuse netted 291 yds at the Dome. Which the game was USF 41-10 laying -19 and no points were scored after the 3rd Q . Cuse had 1 TD and 50yd FG .

Yards 582 USF 291 Cuse
Rushing 56c 346yds to 17c 15 yds Cuse

USF actually had 16penalties for 144 yds ! Cuse doesnt have Mike williams anyore on offense either .

The Cuse has improved in the past few games but they also had 2 weeks to prepare for WVU and faced them w/o Pat WHite . So WVU just plays that game to escape with a win IMO .

Now USF is off a bye actually 16 days since LOSING at home to Pitt .

Just based on circumstance one would believe that USF brings there A game here and faces a team it has really had success vs .

Even think the over could be attractive ...

Just hard to believe this game is less then 4 TDs . Cuse was +22 @ WVU w/o White and about +24 with White . Think USF is a better team in 2008 .

USF was -29 @ FIU and -14 vs Pitt who was 2 TD favs at Cuse . Cuse was 4 TD home dogs to Penn State as well . They were +13 @ Northwestern and lost 30-10 ......comfortable thinking 35-10 here and no reason why USF doesnt score 40 or so .....

thoughts ?:cheers:

 

[horses]

yeah...i already bet usf -23'; very solid play.

 

[RetroVK]

Okay havent heard a peep about this game :

Cuse @ USF :

To me -24 looks damn cheap .

In 3 meetings Cuse has scored 0 , 10 , 10

Last year Dantley started and had 276 through the air when Cuse netted 291 yds at the Dome. Which the game was USF 41-10 laying -19 and no points were scored after the 3rd Q . Cuse had 1 TD and 50yd FG .

Yards 582 USF 291 Cuse
Rushing 56c 346yds to 17c 15 yds Cuse

USF actually had 16penalties for 144 yds ! Cuse doesnt have Mike williams anyore on offense either .

The Cuse has improved in the past few games but they also had 2 weeks to prepare for WVU and faced them w/o Pat WHite . So WVU just plays that game to escape with a win IMO .

Now USF is off a bye actually 16 days since LOSING at home to Pitt .

Just based on circumstance one would believe that USF brings there A game here and faces a team it has really had success vs .

Even think the over could be attractive ...

Just hard to believe this game is less then 4 TDs . Cuse was +22 @ WVU w/o White and about +24 with White . Think USF is a better team in 2008 .

USF was -29 @ FIU and -14 vs Pitt who was 2 TD favs at Cuse . Cuse was 4 TD home dogs to Penn State as well . They were +13 @ Northwestern and lost 30-10 ......comfortable thinking 35-10 here and no reason why USF doesnt score 40 or so .....

thoughts ?:cheers:

I am sort of rigid when it comes to laying over 3 td this year. Let me get that out of the way. It may mean that I miss a winning bet here or there but i am sticking to my guns that it is going to have to be extraordianry value above and beyond a normal perceived value by me in order to lay it.

With that said , i tend to agree with you on this particular game. I think the line value that you get is a result of cuse playing better of late with quality efforts vs pitt and wvu coupled with usf kind of being a major disappointment outside of the second half vs kansas.

From a spot perspective i like usf here. USF off a thursday night ass whoopin from pittsburgh and a bye week .. so lots of time to prepare and lots of time to get angry. Syracuse was seen crying after the wvu loss and now has to travel down to usf which i think is one of the tougher in conference road trips that you can take in the big east ( also why it is harder for usf to win this conference in my opinion as they have to travel way north way too often ). While the cuse are playing better and harder right now and dantley is doing a better job of leading them this might be a tough loss for the cuse to overcome but then again they are heading into a bye week which should help them to remain focused.

What concerns me for the cuse here is that of all the types of offenses and teams they have faced this year , usf most resembles penn state from a style perspective , followed by northwestern. Northwestern compiled 25 first downs and 484 yards of offense on syracuse and it would have been worse but it took northwestern awhile to get going because it was the first game of the year. penn state had 26 first downs and 560 yards of offense. Guess what .... akron runs a similar style of spread and they had 29 first downs and 478 yards of offense. Syracuse doesnt match up as well with these types of teams. Where they succeeded was vs the teams that tried to power attack them like pitt and wvu. This even dates back to last year where they struggled with the usg spread style and the cincy spread style. you already broke down last years game.

The one thing i would expect again from a negative standpoint towards a usf bet is the penalties again. For one , you see it often off the bye week and for two you have one of the least penalty prone teams in syracuse vs one of the most penalized teams in the country in usf.

You also have the situation where usf defense lines up nicely vs what syracuse likes to do , which is run the ball. usf is giving up just 73 yards a game and 2.4 yards a carry so cuse will struggle. To put it in perspective , syracuse is averaging 7 more rush attempts than pass attempts so far this year .....DESPITE THE SCOREBOARD. So you know what they like to do .. and they cant do it vs usf.

This is a game where spot and style matchups dictate a hard look at usf but as i said , i am not looking to lay the big numbers and while i think this may be a game where cuse lays an emotional egg and usf comes out on fire ... i really havent seen the fire from usf in a game yet.

Would be interested to know if leavitt employs the true hurry up offense that he used in the first quarter of the ncstate game before the rains hit.

i forgot to mention that i think the light has come on for pittsburgh. pitt is under the radar right now when they were a darlong at the start of the year .. amazing what a loss to bgsu and a bad game against buffalo will do to perception even after a team starts playing to potential. my point is ,,,,, the pitt loss is not as bad a loss as some will make it,.

Weather looks great which is a must when laying huge numbers as well.

Definitely lean usf for reasons you mention and the ones i just mentioned. But not my type of bet.

 

[RetroVK]

yeah...i already bet usf -23'; very solid play.

go bulls !

 

[B.A.R.]

locked in

nevada-19
Arizona pick
ohio state -3
maryland ml +105
virginia Tech +3
pittsburgh -3
missst/vols over 35.5
uconn/rutgers over 43.5
purdue/northwestern over 44
miamiohio +10
iowa -3 -120
georgia tech -2

Looking back at your card, really think it sets up nice. have really been leaving totals alone this year since first week or two. That being said, I think the NW-Purdue number is excellent and expect this game to reach the fifties. Read a nice write-up elsewhere on Miami-Oh catching those points and think its the right play.

Think its going to be a big week. Think we are both in same position waiting on Scary number and still capping it. Think thats the only one I'll add for weekend.

Good cappin brah:cheers::shake::shake::shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Looking back at your card, really think it sets up nice. have really been leaving totals alone this year since first week or two. That being said, I think the NW-Purdue number is excellent and expect this game to reach the fifties. Read a nice write-up elsewhere on Miami-Oh catching those points and think its the right play.

Think its going to be a big week. Think we are both in same position waiting on Scary number and still capping it. Think thats the only one I'll add for weekend.

Good cappin brah:cheers::shake::shake::shake:

Absolutely. waiting and waiting on the scary number and it doesnt seem to be moving the right way given what i expected the average joe college bettor to be doing.

Do you think this starts getting pushed back up or are we gonna be stuck with a +110 +115 or +120 ml play ?

Come on with the lsu money already people !!! where was a drbob play on lsu when i needed one ?

i really like that beer mug emoticon cough cough

Really feel like maybe i missed a bet with smiss early in the week so if that went back up i might consider it. Rice just keeps taking money as if no one knows they cant tackle.

i liked GT sunday night but waited for a number and then they fired the coach and i got screwed there .. so getting much the worst of that.

hope we both have big weeks .. you are already having a big year .. i need a big week .....

 

[B.A.R.]

Absolutely. waiting and waiting on the scary number and it doesnt seem to be moving the right way given what i expected the average joe college bettor to be doing.

Do you think this starts getting pushed back up or are we gonna be stuck with a +110 +115 or +120 ml play ?

Come on with the lsu money already people !!! where was a drbob play on lsu when i needed one ?

i really like that beer mug emoticon cough cough

Really feel like maybe i missed a bet with smiss early in the week so if that went back up i might consider it. Rice just keeps taking money as if no one knows they cant tackle.

i liked GT sunday night but waited for a number and then they fired the coach and i got screwed there .. so getting much the worst of that.

hope we both have big weeks .. you are already having a big year .. i need a big week .....

I waited on GT and then it was too late..somewhat..would have still fired but I hate going against a coaching change in any sport in all honesty. Capping the game beforehand the play is clear. Its the little intangibles here that scare me.

I see some LSU money coming in. I am going to be very patient. Obviously if I like a team at +2 or +3 I expect them to win outright. You could well be correct though. Too bad they got ambushed at the swamp last week or our number would be a bit better. Think big money is really pushing in on this game and thats why we cannot get it just yet. May have to wait till late Friday or early Saturday to get down.

Yeah, Bob plays a Fondy style card and cannot include that game??

 

[Dmoney416]

Was wondering if D-Money could get more specific.

I was going to include the heights, weights, and favorite colors of all of the skill position players, but I figured that would be overkill. :tiphat:

 

[broadwayjoe]

amazing thread...

1.) i've never seen an idaho write-up better

2.) i've never seen a western kentucky write-up better (or at all really)

3.) what the hell are you waiting for in scar, vk? you're getting plus money on the ml; that could and very well should soon be gone. just press the place bet button already

 

[YesSir]

good thread kyle....BOL

 

[RetroVK]

I was going to include the heights, weights, and favorite colors of all of the skill position players, but I figured that would be overkill. :tiphat:

Was hoping more for phone numbers of the girlfriends......

 

[RetroVK]

amazing thread...

1.) i've never seen an idaho write-up better

2.) i've never seen a western kentucky write-up better (or at all really)

3.) what the hell are you waiting for in scar, vk? you're getting plus money on the ml; that could and very well should soon be gone. just press the place bet button already

Thanks Joe.

Waiting because i think there is a chance that late bettors like the idea of lsu at under a fg ... and in a low totaled game i think there is a chance the fg comes into play so i would rather have it if i can. If it falls to 1.5 everywhere and i feel like i have no shot at the fg then i will just play the ml. Might not work out for ( and waiting usually doesnt for me ) for the best but i am holding out and praying.

Dont worry , south carolina will be on my card in some way whether that be ml or ATS

 

[RetroVK]

good thread kyle....BOL

:cheers: thanks yessir

 

[B.A.R.]

Was hoping more for phone numbers of the girlfriends......

PM me, I'll get you the info:tiphat:

 

[broadwayjoe]

Thanks Joe.

Waiting because i think there is a chance that late bettors like the idea of lsu at under a fg ... and in a low totaled game i think there is a chance the fg comes into play so i would rather have it if i can. If it falls to 1.5 everywhere and i feel like i have no shot at the fg then i will just play the ml. Might not work out for ( and waiting usually doesnt for me ) for the best but i am holding out and praying.

Dont worry , south carolina will be on my card in some way whether that be ml or ATS

good; because i wanted you to add it for my own selfish reasons of feeling more confident about it since you're on it with me hahahahahaha

it's weird that we're on different pages two straight weeks with the buckeyes...are you going to be around later for a good discussion? or are you going to be drinking like the rest of the free world as i sit and watch the game in front of my computer because i gotta get up so early tomorrow for "voluntary overtime" at my firm. about as voluntary as the OTAs in the nfl haha.

should be an excellent game, but i think mich st can control the trenches enough to win. there is some talk about splitting time between qbs, an awful idea imo, and i'll have some articles and such about that as well...but it has little to do with my play. i have seen a lot of people that feel mich st is overrated....why? what is so bad about them? they're not great, but they don't really have a glaring weakness that is out of control. hopefully we can talk later...

 

[RetroVK]

good; because i wanted you to add it for my own selfish reasons of feeling more confident about it since you're on it with me hahahahahaha

it's weird that we're on different pages two straight weeks with the buckeyes...are you going to be around later for a good discussion? or are you going to be drinking like the rest of the free world as i sit and watch the game in front of my computer because i gotta get up so early tomorrow for "voluntary overtime" at my firm. about as voluntary as the OTAs in the nfl haha.

should be an excellent game, but i think mich st can control the trenches enough to win. there is some talk about splitting time between qbs, an awful idea imo, and i'll have some articles and such about that as well...but it has little to do with my play. i have seen a lot of people that feel mich st is overrated....why? what is so bad about them? they're not great, but they don't really have a glaring weakness that is out of control. hopefully we can talk later...

Actually heard on the radio that defensive players for buckeyes are calling out offensive linemen , saying that they are playing like little girls .. havent looked for an article yet.

I will be around later to talk some football , beer in hand though too .. who says it has to be one or the other ??

i dont think that michst is necessarily overrated ( well i do a little bit ) , i just think this particular line overrates them. When was the last time your boys lost a road conference game ???? Shouldn't this be a game that tosu can actually get up for , for a change ?? Teacher owns ths student so far too ( tressell over dantonio something like 3-0 ? )

michigan state defense is giving up almost a hundred more yards per game than the tosu defense , which is pretty stout againt his year ... really just as stout as last year ... just the offense has been worse so they are defending more plays per game and more blanced attacks as teams arent behind big early like last year.

remember last years game ??? ouch spartans. deceiving score there.

 

[broadwayjoe]

Actually heard on the radio that defensive players for buckeyes are calling out offensive linemen , saying that they are playing like little girls .. havent looked for an article yet.

I will be around later to talk some football , beer in hand though too .. who says it has to be one or the other ??

oh yeah i'll be drinkin too; it's just when i go out and the liquor starts flowin i can't get my ass outta bed at 5am haha

i think this is what you were talking about...

http://www.freep.com/article/20081016/SPORTS07/81016069/1048/sports

near the bottom it said the defense is starting to get pissed, and rightfully so...but i think if the defensive line said that it would be a pot calling the kettle black

dline has struggled to say the least...

http://www.cleveland.com/sports/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/sports/1224145912208501.xml&coll=2

 

[broadwayjoe]

mich state certainly has weaknesses on defense....but i'm not sure if we can exploit them...if purdue's defense can figure us out, why can't mich state? our receivers have just been playing very poorly. they're average as it is, and they've been underachieving. sure beanie will get his 100 yards, but can the bucks keep up with msu? we'll dive into it more in a couple hours here....

 

[RetroVK]

thanks for the links.

yeah that must ahve been wahat they were talking about.

Gonna come out like MEN tis week. .....errrr... i hope.

 

[RetroVK]

Added

S carolina +3 -120

lost my patience. Want to get more work done for next weeks openers. Not sure this is the right play mathematically but i can see this being that fg type of game so what the hell......

That concludes my card for this week.

still ready to discuss any game on the board just about ( a couple sunbelt games i cant help much with ) so if you want a losing opinion just ask me. hehe.

 

[nawlins51]

VK I am scratching Iowa.Dr Bob fucked this play up imo. Thank you Dr.Bob.I swear he comes on CTG and copies his plays from us.Fuck you Dr.Bob - Go get your own plays...lol.

Seriously I am scratching Iowa.I will be on GT more than likely.

 

[RetroVK]

VK I am scratching Iowa.Dr Bob fucked this play up imo. Thank you Dr.Bob.I swear he comes on CTG and copies his plays from us.Fuck you Dr.Bob - Go get your own plays...lol.

Seriously I am scratching Iowa.I will be on GT more than likely.

i recommended it to friends , all the way to -4 so i think its still a value but i understand completely about getting shaky when it involves -3 , -3.5 , -4 ... ket numbers for sure.

yeah i have a couple games this week with some concerns where i just have to let the capping that has worked in the past continue to work and not get scared. GT is one of those and of course i had the s carolina game circled preseason for the great spot and have a few concerns there too.

I CAN SAY WITHOUT QUESTION THAT IF SOUTH CAROLINA LOSES AND DOES NOT COVER THAT IT WAS NOT BECAUSE OF THE SPOT.



Anyway , best of luck nawlins ... and you usually dont need much.

 

[nawlins51]

i recommended it to friends , all the way to -4 so i think its still a value but i understand completely about getting shaky when it involves -3 , -3.5 , -4 ... ket numbers for sure.

yeah i have a couple games this week with some concerns where i just have to let the capping that has worked in the past continue to work and not get scared. GT is one of those and of course i had the s carolina game circled preseason for the great spot and have a few concerns there too.

I CAN SAY WITHOUT QUESTION THAT IF SOUTH CAROLINA LOSES AND DOES NOT COVER THAT IT WAS NOT BECAUSE OF THE SPOT.



Anyway , best of luck nawlins ... and you usually dont need much.

Shit VK I will need it this weekend.I am not having that great feeling. Plus starting tomorrow I am raising my units per bet. Bankroll got bigger and had to adjust with the 5% rule.Anyway that would be a subject in Talkin Shop.

I got Iowa winning by 6 points.When it got to 4 it went out my 3+ window being only 2 from my spread.

I am also thinking of scratching UNC.The line dropped but Tate out scares me a little.My card is starting to look like poo poo...lol.

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff VK. Played pitt as soon at came out this week expected it to move off -3 just not below. Pitt cheaper then Rutgers @ Navy ??

Like the fact its homecoming for USF just every tiny bit of motivation helps especially since we have some some flat USF home crowds .

Seems like the early games have subplots .

Forgot about last year's Maryland choke job @ WF . As well as Northwesterns 4th Q collapse @ Purdue .....

Really looking at Northwestern of the two as the Mich State LOSS was really skewed . You hate to say they were DUE for a LOSS but they were just ripe for one . They had an INT that turned into a Mich State TD later that drive making a 17-7 game with Nwestern knocking on the door before half into a 24-7 game athalf and then NW move dthe ball with ease in teh 3rd Q but settled for 2 FGS and a TD while the Spartans had good field position on both there drives and had about a 1/3 of the yardage and stil had 10 pts .....

:cheers:Not a big fan of chalk either ..

 

[B.A.R.]

Budge....off....2....now...lsu/scary

 

[pags11]

opcorn:...nice work...

 

[RetroVK]

Budge....off....2....now...lsu/scary

 

[RetroVK]

opcorn:...nice work...

ready for tomorrow and whatever it brings. Ahead on my work for next week. see atleast one juicy game already if line comes out near expectancy.

look forward to talking later.

 

[RetroVK]

Good stuff VK. Played pitt as soon at came out this week expected it to move off -3 just not below. Pitt cheaper then Rutgers @ Navy ??

Like the fact its homecoming for USF just every tiny bit of motivation helps especially since we have some some flat USF home crowds .

Seems like the early games have subplots .

Forgot about last year's Maryland choke job @ WF . As well as Northwesterns 4th Q collapse @ Purdue .....

Really looking at Northwestern of the two as the Mich State LOSS was really skewed . You hate to say they were DUE for a LOSS but they were just ripe for one . They had an INT that turned into a Mich State TD later that drive making a 17-7 game with Nwestern knocking on the door before half into a 24-7 game athalf and then NW move dthe ball with ease in teh 3rd Q but settled for 2 FGS and a TD while the Spartans had good field position on both there drives and had about a 1/3 of the yardage and stil had 10 pts .....

:cheers:Not a big fan of chalk either ..

leaned nw too. mich st got ahead so early that a lot of the stats are skewed a bit though. Game at duke was bad bad bad in victory. i know because i bet the bastiges.

gl this week whatever you play senor sportsnut

 

[RetroVK]

Want to thank every single person who participated in my cfb thread this week. one of the better threads i have had this year and i think we helped one another come to the best decisions possible. Even where we may disagree on a game , we put it out there for each other to look at and examine. Great job.

 

[SportsNut]

leaned nw too. mich st got ahead so early that a lot of the stats are skewed a bit though. Game at duke was bad bad bad in victory. i know because i bet the bastiges.

gl this week whatever you play senor sportsnut

Thanks VK , At this rate I may play 85% of the card . I cant find much I dont like ....

Noon leans -
USF (maybe over )
NW and NW 1st H
Maryland +3
ECU and ECU 1st H
RU ML
BGreen
Clemson
WMich ML
Iowa played at -3 -130
Georgia
Neb Over
Akron
A& M 1st H (flat spot for TT I think )

There isnt even much I dont like the rest of the day .....headache !:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks VK , At this rate I may play 85% of the card . I cant find much I dont like ....

Noon leans -
USF (maybe over )
NW and NW 1st H
Maryland +3
ECU and ECU 1st H
RU ML
BGreen
Clemson
WMich ML
Iowa played at -3 -130
Georgia
Neb Over
Akron
A& M 1st H (flat spot for TT I think )

There isnt even much I dont like the rest of the day .....headache !:cheers:

yeah good looking card .. guess i F'ed up on the maryland line ... sort of a bad week for me on value side of things.

Only thing i want to point out is a Texas Tech/ TAMU game is never a flat spot. It's a rivalry game. Also doubt that it's a flat spot after OT game last week. Not saying tamu 1st half is a bad play just dont agree about tech being flat for an aggie game... and just kansas on deck . shrug.

 

[RetroVK]

Should be on texas at this point .. ... .... .. . .. . .. . .. . . . . . . . .

 

[B.A.R.]

Should be on texas at this point .. ... .... .. . .. . .. . .. . . . . . . . .

illow:

Homer

 

[B.A.R.]

Want to thank every single person who participated in my cfb thread this week. one of the better threads i have had this year and i think we helped one another come to the best decisions possible. Even where we may disagree on a game , we put it out there for each other to look at and examine. Great job.

Absolutely. Been great. The month of October is SO tough in my years of capping so special attention is needed. The lines are tight and you get those trap games whether you believe in traps or not. Bottom line, toughest time of year to profit.