RetroVK
This claim is disputed
updated through week 13
overall 76-64-2 54.3%
Sides 52-43-2 54.7%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-20 53.5 % <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Had a rough week last week , where i capped several games TERRIBLY. One of my worst weeks from a capping standpoint but almost made it out 4-4 but wake forest was capped so poorly that i couldn't even get lucky there. 3-5 last week. of course both strong leans that i did not play ( ole miss and iowa ) both cash easily.
locked in
Nevada -3
strong leans
navy +3 eliminated 11-25
s carolina +1 eliminated friday
pittsburgh +3 eliminated thanksgiving
missouri -13 eliminated thanksgiving
georgia tech +9 eliminated friday
nc state +1 eliminated thanksgiving
talk me off leans
auburn +14.5 eliminated thanksgiving
Recaps from worst capped to best capped
wake forest -1 loser -- I just ahve to consider this the worst capped game of the week for me. I benefitted from everything imaginable in a football game. two defensive td , and a blocked punt to the opponent 2 yardline for another td. The opposing qb got hurt early in the game for me and the replacement looked pathetic to me from a mastery of the offense standpoint , happy feet standpoint , quality of decision making standpoint and ability to throw standpoint. He still led his team down the field at the end of the game for a winning score. I thought riley skinner was an unlikely candidate for interceptions and he threw a couple key ones including one with under a minute left in the first half that led to a fg and one early in the first half that was taken back for a td. so i was wrong about him. one area that i thought wake had an advantage was fg kicking but i was wrong there too apparently. what makes it worse is i had an alltime great college kicker in swank who i hoped would play but capped as if he would not vs a bc team that has struggled all year with fg kicking. The result was Boston college going 3-3 on fg and wake foret going 0-1. Take away the scores that were created by special teams and defense , wake forest had ZERO scoring drives. boston college had a 14-9 first down edge , and a 234 to 191 yardage edge. To my credit , i did say that wake matched up well defensively but boston college actually moved the ball half decently prior to Crane getting injured. Horrifically capped game. When you lose a bet when the other team loses their starting qb and he is replaced by a guy who looks lost , you get two defensive td and a blocked punt to the opponent 2 yardline and you are laying 1 point .. that is one bad bet folks. Funny thing was that i was a favorite to win the bet with just a few minutes remaining.
Michigan State + 15 loser -- Total domination by penn state. penn state had a 557 - 322 yardage edge in this game and a majority of michigan state offensive production came late when the game was already decided. The key to this game all along was michigan state style mimicking that of iowa and ohio state who gave penn state fits. My error was that the michigan state defense is not only lesser than the two previous mentioned teams but not even in the same class. Game was a lost cause late second quarter when penn state scored two td in a minute and five second span. Have tow onder if ohio state winning earlier in the day cut into the michigan state motivation to start the game as the rose bowl was no longer possible. On paper , the line for this game was simply ridiculous in my opinion but the linesmakers had a better feel for this game than i did and while as the week progressed i wondered if the books were inviting mich st money , i still had to play it. Probably one of my favorite plays when i made the bet but it was poorly capped.
illinois -2 loser -- I don't really have a problem with this bet. On paper illinois was clearly the play. Unfortunately , illinois came out flat for this game and northwestern was far more emotional. It's the hardest part about capping the college game. Sometimes the kids just don't show up. Even so , the illini had equal first downs and just 4 yards less of total yardage than northwestern did. The issue was pass protection as sacks of juice williams led to several punts. Can't ahve the negative plays. I think a normal effort from illinois gets the money. 21-21 first downs. Fitzgerald ( who i am not a huge fan of ) should be given credit for getting the most out of this team and specific to this game for having his kids motivated for a relatively meaningless game for his kids , while zook failed to have his guys motivated for a game they needed for bowl eligibility. Should have been a motivational edge to illini .... but as i said , that is the hardest part of cfb to cap.
Arizona -3 loser -- Another poorly capped game ... i told you i had a bad week. Basically the game was a coinflip as it played out and i was the guy laying the points instead of getting them. I really felt going into the game that arizona would be able to move the ball on the oregon state defense and i was wrong for the most part. Was the victim of curious playcalling by stoops near the goalline and some blown coverages late. But again i benefitted from moveao not playing and an early injury to the pac10 leading rusher rodgers getting a slight separated shoulder early in the game. McCants , who came in for rodgers , is going to be a great back for these guys but had rodgers played i think oregon state wins by even more. I was hurt by a missed extra point which kept arizona ahead by one point and put them in run the clock out mode instead of trying to score mode. That didnt work out for them either as canfield had maybe his best game as a collegiate athlete. oregon state as it was outgained arizona 390-297 while zona out first downed the beavs 19-17. Again , i expected a high scoring game here and it was low scoring so i dont feel like i had a good read on thsi one. My only real regret here is that i was basically asking stoops to not get outcoached by mike riley.....
Louisville + 7 loser -- Hehe these guys killed me again. I really wanted to stay away from them the rest of the year but the matchup and situation seemed perfect with wvu having a huge lookahead to backyard brawl with pittsburgh , a good matchup with ville rush defense , a good matchup with power running game vs wvu rushing defense. Unfortunately , the coaching was so poor in this game that the players could not overcome it. WVU made the big plays and louisville bogged down or turned it over or made coaching errors to destroy themselves. The stats show a cover was in order and a possible push materialized late but fell short. louisville had a 26-16 first down edge. but were outgained 498 - 434 ( again some big plays by pat white ). Not a bad bet.
Georgia tech -2 -120 winner --Georgia tech option attack basically gave the miami florida undisciplined defense fits in this one and that was the basis of the bet , along with GT defensive line advantage. Georgia tech had a 518-388 yardage edge and miami actually had a 20-18 first down edge. But it was more dominant than those stats show. Miami went on a 98 yard drive in the last few minutes of the game when down 41-16. Well capped.
NCST +12 Winner --ncst won 41-10 getting 12 points and while the score is deceiving somewhat the basis of the bet was unc inability to move the ball and score and that did play out as expected. The score is lopsided because unc turned the ball over 6 times. But even without that the heels had just 13 first downs and 203 yards of offense. ncst had 18 FD and 466 yards of offense
Clemson -2.5 winner -- Sometimes i am just very happy when a game goes exactly as i expect it to. The reasoning behind this bet was clemson being able to shut down cedric peerman and try and make verica beat them. peerman had 19 carries for 49 yards at 2.4 a carry. With the lead clemson went ultra-conservative knowing virginia could not move the ball which made the game closer than it should have been but of all of the games this week , this one most appeared what i thought in my brain.
overall 76-64-2 54.3%
Sides 52-43-2 54.7%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-20 53.5 % <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Had a rough week last week , where i capped several games TERRIBLY. One of my worst weeks from a capping standpoint but almost made it out 4-4 but wake forest was capped so poorly that i couldn't even get lucky there. 3-5 last week. of course both strong leans that i did not play ( ole miss and iowa ) both cash easily.
locked in
Nevada -3
strong leans
navy +3 eliminated 11-25
s carolina +1 eliminated friday
pittsburgh +3 eliminated thanksgiving
missouri -13 eliminated thanksgiving
georgia tech +9 eliminated friday
nc state +1 eliminated thanksgiving
talk me off leans
auburn +14.5 eliminated thanksgiving
Recaps from worst capped to best capped
wake forest -1 loser -- I just ahve to consider this the worst capped game of the week for me. I benefitted from everything imaginable in a football game. two defensive td , and a blocked punt to the opponent 2 yardline for another td. The opposing qb got hurt early in the game for me and the replacement looked pathetic to me from a mastery of the offense standpoint , happy feet standpoint , quality of decision making standpoint and ability to throw standpoint. He still led his team down the field at the end of the game for a winning score. I thought riley skinner was an unlikely candidate for interceptions and he threw a couple key ones including one with under a minute left in the first half that led to a fg and one early in the first half that was taken back for a td. so i was wrong about him. one area that i thought wake had an advantage was fg kicking but i was wrong there too apparently. what makes it worse is i had an alltime great college kicker in swank who i hoped would play but capped as if he would not vs a bc team that has struggled all year with fg kicking. The result was Boston college going 3-3 on fg and wake foret going 0-1. Take away the scores that were created by special teams and defense , wake forest had ZERO scoring drives. boston college had a 14-9 first down edge , and a 234 to 191 yardage edge. To my credit , i did say that wake matched up well defensively but boston college actually moved the ball half decently prior to Crane getting injured. Horrifically capped game. When you lose a bet when the other team loses their starting qb and he is replaced by a guy who looks lost , you get two defensive td and a blocked punt to the opponent 2 yardline and you are laying 1 point .. that is one bad bet folks. Funny thing was that i was a favorite to win the bet with just a few minutes remaining.
Michigan State + 15 loser -- Total domination by penn state. penn state had a 557 - 322 yardage edge in this game and a majority of michigan state offensive production came late when the game was already decided. The key to this game all along was michigan state style mimicking that of iowa and ohio state who gave penn state fits. My error was that the michigan state defense is not only lesser than the two previous mentioned teams but not even in the same class. Game was a lost cause late second quarter when penn state scored two td in a minute and five second span. Have tow onder if ohio state winning earlier in the day cut into the michigan state motivation to start the game as the rose bowl was no longer possible. On paper , the line for this game was simply ridiculous in my opinion but the linesmakers had a better feel for this game than i did and while as the week progressed i wondered if the books were inviting mich st money , i still had to play it. Probably one of my favorite plays when i made the bet but it was poorly capped.
illinois -2 loser -- I don't really have a problem with this bet. On paper illinois was clearly the play. Unfortunately , illinois came out flat for this game and northwestern was far more emotional. It's the hardest part about capping the college game. Sometimes the kids just don't show up. Even so , the illini had equal first downs and just 4 yards less of total yardage than northwestern did. The issue was pass protection as sacks of juice williams led to several punts. Can't ahve the negative plays. I think a normal effort from illinois gets the money. 21-21 first downs. Fitzgerald ( who i am not a huge fan of ) should be given credit for getting the most out of this team and specific to this game for having his kids motivated for a relatively meaningless game for his kids , while zook failed to have his guys motivated for a game they needed for bowl eligibility. Should have been a motivational edge to illini .... but as i said , that is the hardest part of cfb to cap.
Arizona -3 loser -- Another poorly capped game ... i told you i had a bad week. Basically the game was a coinflip as it played out and i was the guy laying the points instead of getting them. I really felt going into the game that arizona would be able to move the ball on the oregon state defense and i was wrong for the most part. Was the victim of curious playcalling by stoops near the goalline and some blown coverages late. But again i benefitted from moveao not playing and an early injury to the pac10 leading rusher rodgers getting a slight separated shoulder early in the game. McCants , who came in for rodgers , is going to be a great back for these guys but had rodgers played i think oregon state wins by even more. I was hurt by a missed extra point which kept arizona ahead by one point and put them in run the clock out mode instead of trying to score mode. That didnt work out for them either as canfield had maybe his best game as a collegiate athlete. oregon state as it was outgained arizona 390-297 while zona out first downed the beavs 19-17. Again , i expected a high scoring game here and it was low scoring so i dont feel like i had a good read on thsi one. My only real regret here is that i was basically asking stoops to not get outcoached by mike riley.....
Louisville + 7 loser -- Hehe these guys killed me again. I really wanted to stay away from them the rest of the year but the matchup and situation seemed perfect with wvu having a huge lookahead to backyard brawl with pittsburgh , a good matchup with ville rush defense , a good matchup with power running game vs wvu rushing defense. Unfortunately , the coaching was so poor in this game that the players could not overcome it. WVU made the big plays and louisville bogged down or turned it over or made coaching errors to destroy themselves. The stats show a cover was in order and a possible push materialized late but fell short. louisville had a 26-16 first down edge. but were outgained 498 - 434 ( again some big plays by pat white ). Not a bad bet.
Georgia tech -2 -120 winner --Georgia tech option attack basically gave the miami florida undisciplined defense fits in this one and that was the basis of the bet , along with GT defensive line advantage. Georgia tech had a 518-388 yardage edge and miami actually had a 20-18 first down edge. But it was more dominant than those stats show. Miami went on a 98 yard drive in the last few minutes of the game when down 41-16. Well capped.
NCST +12 Winner --ncst won 41-10 getting 12 points and while the score is deceiving somewhat the basis of the bet was unc inability to move the ball and score and that did play out as expected. The score is lopsided because unc turned the ball over 6 times. But even without that the heels had just 13 first downs and 203 yards of offense. ncst had 18 FD and 466 yards of offense
Clemson -2.5 winner -- Sometimes i am just very happy when a game goes exactly as i expect it to. The reasoning behind this bet was clemson being able to shut down cedric peerman and try and make verica beat them. peerman had 19 carries for 49 yards at 2.4 a carry. With the lead clemson went ultra-conservative knowing virginia could not move the ball which made the game closer than it should have been but of all of the games this week , this one most appeared what i thought in my brain.
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