2008 cfb -- time to post my week 14 card so far

B.A.R. said:
Well, we have the same card this week.

LOL

May be my only play as well. Some leans, but there seems to be a sticking point in each one.
Click to expand...


Exactly ... and i am already not working as hard this week , and with thanksgiving holiday it is going to be hard to get all these plays ironed out and be prepared for sunday openers next week.

glad you like nevada as well, BAR.

Wish i had played navy .......
 
Nice to have a comfortable win with Navy . NIU was just overrated and I learned my lesson with them vs CMU . They battled back but most importantly lost . Which is part of their profile IMO . Against better teams they compete but dont win - CMU , @ Minny and @ WMU they also didnt pund some teams at hom ethey were nice sized favs vs like BG and Miami Ohio . All inferior to Navy . Navy was the opposite knowing how to win it games it wasnt playing well in.

Basically NIU thanks to beating Kent State and coming back vs CMU was inflated here . Should have been a PKem even with home field and especially playing their 4th game in 20 days vs a rested team with gimmick offense.

Thats over and done with now .......

How about Eastern Michigan +10 ??

One thing a tad unfavorable is EMU beat CMU on the road last season as 14 pt dogs . So clearly a payback spot IMO . Possibly balancing it out though is the fact that EMU has always played well vs CMU past 4 or so times .

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=4>Recent Meetings</TD><TD class=dataheadc colSpan=3>Yard Margins</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="10%">Date</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Away/Home</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Line</TD><TD class=datahl2b>O/U</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="8%">Tot</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="8%">Rus</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="8%">Pas</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/16/07</TD><TD class=datacell>EMICH 48 - CMICH 45</TD><TD class=datacell>EMICH 14</TD><TD class=datacell>O 66</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>-36</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>-17</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>-19</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/23/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CMICH 24 - EMICH 17 x</TD><TD class=datacell>CMICH -4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 45.5</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>-107</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>12</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>-119</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/24/05</TD><TD class=datacell>EMICH 23 - CMICH 20 x</TD><TD class=datacell>EMICH 6.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 58.5</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>113</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>-85</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>198</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/06/04</TD><TD class=datacell>CMICH 58 - EMICH 61 x</TD><TD class=datacell>EMICH 1</TD><TD class=datacell>O 55.5</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>94</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>46</TD><TD class=datacell align=right>48</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

EMU just hung 52 @ temple which is somewhat impressive especially after such a long layoff . I like the fact CMU is 4-2 away with wins by 3,3,1 and 3 pts all the FG wins in conference . Plus coming off the Ball State game you never know how they show. Andy Schimtt of a very good game and CMU pass defense is pretty terrible allowing 8.5 yds per pass atttempt on the road . Granted some real tough opponents but its still bewlo avg now matter how we slice it.

EMU hasnt played at home since 10/18 a 7 pt loss as 4.5 pt dogs to Akron.Which Akron scored with 14 seconds left and got the 2 pt conversion. Which was actually a blocked FG of theirs they recovered and setup for a score.

I know the line is inflated thanks to the perception of CMU who still is not as good as last years version but how different is EMU really ? They wer e4-8 and +14 @ CMU now catching 10 at home .....

The wrench was the firing of EMU's HC on Monday so this is his last game . I would think the team rises and plays one last time for hime but who knows really. EMU hasnt played badly last 6 games losing @ Army and vs Akron in the closing moments . Plus just hung tough at Temple falling by 3 after a late score and failed onsides kick .

CMU lost hopes off winning the conference with Ball State winning today so how do they show at EMU ?? Are they down on themselves already knowing they are assured a bowl ?? CMU suffered more injuries on defense as well losing DL Droscha and DB Agnew who was playing in place of Fraser already ....

I will be on EMU at +10 or so just a matter of how strong ......

Any thoughts ? GL :cheers:






 
SportsNut said:
Any thoughts on the CMU / EMU game ?

Happy Thanksgiving Pags , VK and everyone else ....:cheers:
Click to expand...

I think you have the righ side here, sportsnut.
But I am purely a dog over and a situational handicapper who seems to do pretty well in the MAC. Much too early in the week for me to make decisions, and I don't make any plays until I can get lower juice at the end of the week - but good luck with whatever you play.
Likely I will join you if you go on EMU.
 
kyle- I continually see you leaving winners on the table. Have you kept track of this?
My opinion is that with your knowledge skill in handicapping you should be playing more games.
Happy Holiday.
 
Happy thanksgiving guys .. .... a little burned out right now on football. will try to get to some of this stuff , but no promises.
 
I totally understand kyle...looking forward to actually not watching game tape here in about ten days (as I try to watch all of the bowl games live)...at any rate, clear your head my friend and enjoy your holiday...
 
eliminated some plays.

pitt , ncst , missouri and auburn

pitt +3 -- revenge could be too big a factor and going over my year to date , the big east has been a trouble spot for me.

ncst +1.5 -- on paper , i should probably be betting this but my gut is keeping me away. Just have a bad feeling about the game and i had a similar feeling last week with wake forest and it ended up being my worst bet of the week. Two teams appear to be heading opposite directions though. A little concerned that miami matches up well with a mobile qb in this type of offense , has extra prep time ( shannon needs it ) and more overall speed. Coaching mismatch here in favor o f state though , some bowl motivation as well .... tough to let go and my brain is usually right more times than my gut but staying off.

missouri -13 --line is 16 now. pass.

auburn +14.5 --seems like i get run over every time i step in front of one of these top teams. i have a bad feel for auburn as well this year.


apologize for not responding to posts as normal .... trying to cap , while a bot burned out on cfb ........ so forgive me this one week for being lazy with the thread. I do appreciate you guys who come in and talk football with me and i respect your opinions and your time.

leaves me with possible plays on GT and S carolina ...........
 
GL VK. Only game that I lean is UTEP. Everything else to me is either dead on or been eliminated.Lines are extremely sharp. Its now a coin flip so probably passing and waiting for Bowl games.
 
nawlins51 said:
GL VK. Only game that I lean is UTEP. Everything else to me is either dead on or been eliminated.Lines are extremely sharp. Its now a coin flip so probably passing and waiting for Bowl games.
Click to expand...


Smart thing to do.:shake:
 
Under 50 Pitt starting to look good IMO @ Pitt .....

crap grass surface to slow WVU's speed. Even 28-21 gets it done .....
 
Over Miss and State .....expect the Bulldogs to get 14 here and if Ole Miss is to cover then they need to get 34 or more ...45.5 and 46 total....32 to 38 allowed by Miss state away and the offense has moved the ball at times away but not produced . Ole Miss put up 31 @ LSU and 50 sonething at home before that...

3 Team teaser ??

Under Pitt 60?
EMU +20?
Over 36 Miss or -8 Miss as well????

Like the Miss over regardless
 
While I like WVU line does seem high at -3 would expect a PK . So curious to see how that plays out with revenge. Only side I can take us WVY or pass so passing
 
kyle, I know you are still pissed about the Wake game from last week, but we should have mentioned that Curry didn't play the entire second half for them...just wanted to note that...
 
EMU +10.5
Ohio -1
Under 49 Pitt

Only negative was had Over 47 @ Ole Miss and after 24 1st Q points just not enough and ends 45-0 when Miss fumbles near the 25 of Miss State with around 3 minutes to play...Wish I played that teaser it was as EASY at it looked instead I did a huge 3 team parlay with Ohio , Under @ Pitt and Over Miss State so those 2 points really ruined a fantastic start !! Have Kent +10 pending ...and Nebraska to complete another parlay with Ole Miss and OHio U ....

Thanks for the help guys and Bull ...:shake:
 
eliminated gt and scarolina... just gonna have one play this week.

doing my normal look at how i did vs the line this week wont take long.

nevada is now at -5 so i got 2 points the best of it ...

gl this week.
 
1-0 for the week with the nevada cover. strong leans went 4-2 and talk me off lean was a huge loser. So might have left some money on the table but either a bet qualifies or it does not.

updated through week 13
overall 77-64-2 54.6%
Sides 53-43-2 55.2%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-20 53.5 % <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
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