2008 cfb -- time to post my week 12 card so far

pags11 said:
kyle,

agree with your analysis of the North Carolina vs. Maryland game...

tunasunday,

the distraction probably won't affect Davis himself or maybe even his coaching staff, but you know the players have to be talking about it in their dorm rooms with eachother so yes it could help us a bit...
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thanks pags. We see the acc games pretty much the same thsi week i think.

in fact if fsu falls any more are you looking at it as a possible addition ??

i agree about the distraction with davis/vols .... really feel it is close to having zero impact .. but whatever impact it does have can only benefit our side of the bet ....


fsu pags ?
 
Books--I think UNC has an excellent back seven, the best in the ACC. Hemby is the only weak link IMO. I consider this team much more talented and coached up than lucky--they have made plays all year.
 
kyle,

just read some reports about a fight on campus that took place in the last twenty-four hours between the football team and a fraternity...up to 3 key contributors for FSU could be suspended...the only other thing that has me concerned about the game is that the total has dropped significantly since opening...I still think that at 6.5 they are worthy of consideration, but I don't recommend making a play until the dust settles regarding these possible suspensions...
 
pags11 said:
kyle,

just read some reports about a fight on campus that took place in the last twenty-four hours between the football team and a fraternity...up to 3 key contributors for FSU could be suspended...the only other thing that has me concerned about the game is that the total has dropped significantly since opening...I still think that at 6.5 they are worthy of consideration, but I don't recommend making a play until the dust settles regarding these possible suspensions...
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ahhh had not read about the frat stuff.

will wait it out and check the line.
 
tunasunday said:
Books--I think UNC has an excellent back seven, the best in the ACC. Hemby is the only weak link IMO. I consider this team much more talented and coached up than lucky--they have made plays all year.
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i consider them both.

unlucky to have lost the virgnia game but very fortunate vs uconn , at miamifl and vs notre dame for instance.

some of that is putting yourself in the position to make the play no doubt but some of those occurrences are lottery ticket winners.
 
vegaskyle said:
i consider them both.

unlucky to have lost the virgnia game but very fortunate vs uconn , at miamifl and vs notre dame for instance.

some of that is putting yourself in the position to make the play no doubt but some of those occurrences are lottery ticket winners.
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Thank you. This is exactly how I viewed the UCONN d-fense from last year. Took advantage of short fields all year. They were lucky at times and just in good position at others. Either way they were able to put points on the board from a field position stand point. I would rather be middle of the pack with total yards and scoring from turnover and good return field position than be the leader in the conference in stats and not be able to points on the board because of having to go on sustained drives.

I am a Nole at heart. I would like to read the report on who was involved in the frat incidence. FSU matches up well with BC, the super aggressive defensive style matches up against the BC offense. My worries will be on the offensive side of the ball for FSU. The line is still young and has taken plays off this year. Ponder has been running for his life all year, and the kid has done a super job in the process. But then again, he has a tendency to float balls over the middle of the field. It killed us against Wake. We have been fortunate not to have a let down like Lee from LSu. The kid just tries to do to much. He cannot allow the game to come to him,b/c he is not have that luxury.
 
NCST:


Pretty mad I layed off this team last week cause I feel like I have a real good read on them and missed a chance to cash a ticket. I thought they were better than Duke and they go out and win by 10 on the road. Wilson makes this offense go and Eugene + Brown is a nice 1-2 combo. Wake's last 2 games on the road also should add some confidence to Wolfpack backers. I think with NCST breaking the 4 game losing streak last week, they have something to build off of and NCST ML is going to be a play for me. They might only be 3-6 SU but are 6-2 ATS and have covered 6 of their last 7...Like it Kyle
 
Florida State has really put up major major pass yards on Boston College the past I don't know how many years.

Even when struggling badly they face BC and go 5 wide and pass like there is no tomorrow.
 
It has been the last 2 years, FSU has covered both games since BC has entered the ACC. The way I see it is they attack the qb. BC's qb likes to run. He would be better served to stay in the pocket and find the TE. TE's have been our crutch going back to the 90's. FSU has knocked out 3 qb's in the last 2 games. Either stay in the pocket and get rushed form the ends that have played lights out over the last few weeks, or move around behind the LOS and throw the ball away is no one is open. He does not need to try to take on a LB. FSU is notorious for hitting late and out of bounds. It kills us every year.
 
understand that I lean to FSU but my concern is that FSU will have a tougher time moving the football against B.C. this week than they did last week vs. Clemson...meaning if they get behind early again I'm not sure they cover this number...I do think Crane will be pressured all day and the B.C. running game will have a tough time getting going, but FSU will have to work to get their points as well...if they do end up covering, I'm seeing like 24-17 or 20-13 type game...
 
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You will probably serve better waitin on this line. I do not like the -6.5,7 either. BC has been playing well lately and if the line moves it will be in FSU backers favor. The same thing happened last week against CLEMSON. The line started at -6 or so and by game time was at 4-4.5 depending on where you take the line. I would not lay the -7.
 
E.T.G. said:
NCST:


Pretty mad I layed off this team last week cause I feel like I have a real good read on them and missed a chance to cash a ticket. I thought they were better than Duke and they go out and win by 10 on the road. Wilson makes this offense go and Eugene + Brown is a nice 1-2 combo. Wake's last 2 games on the road also should add some confidence to Wolfpack backers. I think with NCST breaking the 4 game losing streak last week, they have something to build off of and NCST ML is going to be a play for me. They might only be 3-6 SU but are 6-2 ATS and have covered 6 of their last 7...Like it Kyle
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first bet i locked in..... just need them to win now ..hehe
 
pags11 said:
understand that I lean to FSU but my concern is that FSU will have a tougher time moving the football against B.C. this week than they did last week vs. Clemson...meaning if they get behind early again I'm not sure they cover this number...I do think Krane will be pressured all day and the B.C. running game will have a tough time getting going, but FSU will have to work to get their points as well...if they do end up covering, I'm seeing like 24-17 or 20-13 type game...
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hmmm that is not much room for error.
 
From rj thread ....... this may make me consider getting away ......


Longhorns lose center to knee injury

from Bevo Beat
The Longhorns will be without starting center Chris Hall in Kansas on Saturday because of a knee sprain, the team’s training staff said Wednesday.
Hall, a junior, injured his left knee during practice Tuesday. No timetable has been set for his return, trainer Kenny Boyd said in a statement.

The injury comes at an ironic and unfortunate time for Texas. Just a week ago, coach Mack Brown dismissed reserve center Buck Burnette for posting a racial slur related to the election of Barack Obama on his Facebook page.
David Snow, a true freshman, will get the starting nod in the center of the Texas line. Snow, who benefited from some extra practice time in the spring by enrolling at Texas in January, has played both guard and center this season. He will be backed up at center by starting tight end Greg Smith, who has bounced between the offensive line and tight end during fall practice and the season.
Hall has started at center in every game this season. He was named the team’s most productive offensive linemen three times this year.
 
VK you bet Nebraska last week and vs. Baylor at a line of 10.

Why no interest this week vs. a Kansas State team that is much worse then either Nebraska or Baylor????
 
O-State said:
VK you bet Nebraska last week and vs. Baylor at a line of 10.

Why no interest this week vs. a Kansas State team that is much worse then either Nebraska or Baylor????
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i give nebraska a significant home field advantage , which came into play vs baylor and kansas. this one is at kansas state.

nebraska is only side worth a solid look imo but i am not going to play it.
 
added

sjsu/nevada under 53

Basically have two teams that like to run the ball and are not good at passing vs two defenses that are very adept at stopping the run. tick tock tick tock and scoring drives should most likely be the grind it out type.
 
E.T.G. said:
where u sit on this UK game
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obvious kentucky or pass situation in my opinion. vanderbilt is going the wrong direction and for all my love of B johnson i think he has to take a lot of the blame.

the team was very lucky early in the year when they kept getting timely turnovers and were winning games despite playing average defense and bad offense. reality has set in now and i think johnson ruined momentum when he changed the qb at the first sign of trouble.

The dores have shown me nothing all year to make me think they show up and perform on the road at kentucky. With that said , i dont really want to lay the points with kentuckys offense despite what looked like an improved effort last time out against georgia. Prior to that game they scored 14 , 5, 21 , 17 , and 14 points ... so not a fan of laying this many with a conference opponent given that type of production. And despite my general feeling about the vandy defense catching some good fortune they are holding opponents to 19.3 points per game so it is hard to expect kentucky to just go off on them.

i look for good balance from uk .. maybe 160 in the air and 160 on the ground but not sure i want to lay the points when i expect that little offensive production from them.

i think they cover in a low scoring game but i am staying away.

smallest of leans to kentucky based solely on their defense shutting down a vandy offense that johnson ruined.
 
vegaskyle said:
Notre Dame -3 This is a game where I initially leaned to the home dog , option style ( great underdog style ) navy midshipmen when the lines came out on Sunday. I did like navy’s rush offense vs. the notre dmae rush defense a little bit. But it was also a game that I had not capped to conclusion at the time and avoided betting until such a time as I had. After doing that I came to a clear decision that notre dame is the side. Very rarely will I flip flop from an initial lean to play the other side but let me give my reasoning on this.

Situation --I will break down several factors involved with this situational spot that heavily favors the irish.

--revenge/history combo -- Sometimes I think the revenge angle can get overplayed but I really think it applies in full force here. The first reason is the number of returning players for notre dame who suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in team history to navy in overtime last year. Navy beat notre dame for the first time in 44 years last year. It was a triple overtime game. Granted that game was played in south bend and this game is on the road for the irish but we are looking at a notre dame team head and shoulders above last eyars version and a navy team that I consider a lot less than what they were last year. I just can’t imagine that revenge does not play a role here in favor of the irish. Also looking at recent history in this matchup , notre dame never fails to score on navy in up years or down years. Last years team averaged 15.6 first downs per game and 13.9 points per game vs. teams not named navy. They had 27 first downs and 44 points last year. Granted it went to 3ot but you get the idea. History points to a lot of offensive success for the irish

--off of a shutout -- This is a good notre dame offense. Not great by any stretch but definitely a good one .. And has performed well against the lesser defenses the likes of which navy sports. Navy is the worst defense that this team has faced since the season opener. Other than a game AT Washington. The last two games have been against good , solid defenses of boston college and Pittsburgh. Class relief …… and they are coming off getting shutout at boston college. I love good offenses off of shutouts or terrible performances unless I think it is a coming trend rather than a an anomaly. That definitely applies here. The offense has heard a lot about the mistakes they made last week against their catholic brethren and should be focused to finish off drives here.

Weiss -- hot seat ?? Yeah not really but the rumblings have to make him inspired to get a good week of practice in this week and shake off the demons of being the guy who actually lost to navy

Navy is sneaky bad --I admire a team that finds ways to win and be competitive and navy has done that but lets not kid ourselves …. This team has caught every break this season imaginable. Lets look over their schedule.
*They beat towson --nice job.
*They lose at ball st by 12 … out gained and out first downed by ball st
*They lose at duke by 10 --- out gained and out first downed by duke
*They beat Rutgers by 2 points -- Rutgers had a first down edge and navy had a yardage edge. Terrible gameplan by schiano in this one but with the lead 14-6 just before halftime Rutgers was going into the end zone but fumbled the ball at the navy four yard line and navy escaped. Plus 2 in turnovers for navy. I would bet Rutgers at navy right now at anything under a td. This was also the bad Rutgers team from earlier in the year and not the Rutgers playing quality football right now.
*they beat wake forest by 7 -- they benefited from an uncharacteristic 6 turnovers by wake forest. Despite getting 6 turnovers they were still out first downed in the game. Wake is not what we thought they were when the year started either. Very lucky win in my opinion … as was the Rutgers win … it is a theme that will continue.
*navy beat air force by 6 -- they were out first downed 20-13 and out gained 411 - 244 in the game. They blocked two punts for td. Yeah.

*they lost by 21 to Pittsburgh -- the score wasn’t even that close. Out first downed 22 - 12 and out gained 499 - 251. Pitt passed at will and ran at will on the navy defense and just had the dominant athletes that navy can’t match up with.
*navy beat smu 34-7 -- it wasn’t even that close . Navy held smu to negative yards rushing while rushing for over 400 themselves. Impressive win but a lesser opponent.
*navy beat temple 33-27 in overtime -- temple outplayed navy badly for a majority of this game and recovered a fumble by temple while temple was running out the clock and returned it for a td with 37 seconds left , capping a 20 point fourth quarter for navy. With all the momentum navy won in overtime. Fluke win without question.
Sneaky bad folks.

home field advantage -- not a true home field edge for navy here as the game is played in Baltimore Maryland in the ravens stadium. Now , they will have plenty of navy midshipmen in the stands cheering them on and I am sure enough tickets were sold to make this worthwhile but it is NOT a true home game and that has to be considered here.

Bowl eligibility -- We get a TRIPLE whammy of good situation here in regards to bowl eligibility in this game …. 1. Notre dame is 5-4 . The two remaining games after navy are home to Syracuse and at usc. The irish cannot beat usc . So a loss here would put an incredible amount of pressure on the team to win at home vs. the cuse to become bowl eligible. The irish need this win, 2. Navy is already bowl eligible …… and now for the triple whammy part ,….. 3. Not only is navy bowl eligible but they have already accepted their bowl bid !!! The midshipmen will be playing in the eaglebank bowl to be played at rfk stadium on December the 20<SUP>th</SUP>. In other words , they have literally nothing of consequence to play for at this point. Their future has been decided. Now you have to note two things with navy ….. That they are a service academy and usually give a good effort every single week and also that they are playing notre dame so it’s not like there is no motivation for them …. But when looking at the bowl implications involved in this game it creates a clear edge for notre dame in my opinion.

Alright I think you see why I love the situation for notre dame … hell it’s impossible to NOT like the spot for the irish. So any navy love has to come from a matchup standpoint and there are some things that I believe navy can do offensively vs. the irish which is why I leaned that way initially anyway.

- the weakness of the irish defense is their run stopping. Obviously facing a team that pounds you over and over and over again with the run may present some problems for the irish defense. Navy will get some yards and some points in this game most likely. Surprisingly , navy is averaging just 18 first downs per game though and have not exactly played the greatest defenses in the world. I look for them to make some plays , maybe get 20-23 points in this one.
--the weakness of the navy defense is everything but especially the pass defense. They are one of the worst in the entire nation at defending the pass and face a notre dame team that has lots of speed and skill on the outside. Clausen is coming off a bad game ( mechanics ? Or wet ball ? Or bc defense ? Or clausen being clausen ? ) but I would expect a major rebound here. Notre dame should have more success running here than they have had vs. most of their opponents this year. Again we are looking at a class drop for notre dame. So they will be able to run more effectively than in most games and that should make the passing attack all the better.
Notre dame will have the speed and size edges all over the field and that is just tough for navy to compete with here imo.

Notre dame went into unc and outplayed them .. So it is not a hard leap of faith to think they can go into Baltimore and take down the midshipmen.

Concerns
-sometimes it is hard to tell when a team just ahs a really bad game and when some trouble might be brewing and the irish played a terrible game against bc.
-weather -- not much of a concern because the option attack has some major problems in rainy weather given the number of exchanges they make a game but given what I saw clausen doing with a wet ball ( overthrow after overthrow at boston college ) last week , it has to be a concern.
-coaching
-penalties --navy does not commit them. Least penalized team in cfb

Just hard to not like a possibly underrated notre dame team here to an overrated navy squad. Motivational edges all over the place for notre dame , situational edges all over the place for notre dame , speed edges all over the place for notre dame ,. Am majority of matchup edges schematically ( though there are some edges scheme wise for navy offense vs. notre dame defense ) for notre dame ……. Edge for navy at head coach.

I just had to lay it.
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Fuck VK. I am scratching Navy. Great write up. You talked me off Navy but I won't flip flop on this one.Instead i will pull for yall Irish backers.I didn't even know they excepted a bowl bid.Man I feel stupid. I figured they were still fighting for a bid. Oh well. Too much going on.I feel overwhelmed right now. There is 1 bet I am loving though,San Jose State +15. If you like the under then you have to like the cover. :cheers:
 
VK I just read this some great thoughts I agree with it.

If Navy gets 20-23 which sound about right, isn't the over in play?? I think it is, and the line came out maybe 48? it's 52 now. Time of possession a concern but IMO ND is going to score early and often and Navy actually has big play ability, they can score really quick on a few long runs, as evidence by that comeback 20 some points vs. Temple all in the 4th quarter.

Ok last week's game for ND is giving great value. Antother thing giving good value IMO is Rutgers and Wake games both under 45. Rutgers offense sucked balls back then and as you said Skinner was pretending to be Juice Williams or something thinking about hoes and Rutgers missed scoring chances. I mean every other game has gone over this spread we are seeing except for the SMU game.

ND is going to score my friend. BC, Chestnut Hill, at night, the Eagles turn into superman. I am going to start looking into playing their ass every time I get an espn night game at Chestnut.

This is what I think. ND pretty average team. But when they face below average defenses, they do not have a problem moving it whatsoever. Not a problemo.

And Weissy Weis Wuss, he is going to fake the punt with 30 seconds left up by 20. That's the stuff pompous ass does and his job is on the line you can bank on it.
 
kyle, I really don't know what to make of ND after watching last Saturday's sick effort. I have never been a fan of the Clausens , and was kicking myself for my ND bet. That makes it difficult for me to go back to the well again this week AND I see where you and Pags lock horns on this week's game. That condition never makes me comfortable, so I probably will pass.
FWIW, I do believe I will be playing terps, wolfpack, and the scarlet Knights.
GL
 
bull said:
kyle, I really don't know what to make of ND after watching last Saturday's sick effort. I have never been a fan of the Clausens , and was kicking myself for my ND bet. That makes it difficult for me to go back to the well again this week AND I see where you and Pags lock horns on this week's game. That condition never makes me comfortable, so I probably will pass.
FWIW, I do believe I will be playing terps, wolfpack, and the scarlet Knights.
GL
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Having also bet notre dame last week and considering it my worst bet of last week , i understand where you are coming from. Hard to like Clausen , period. Just have to let the data take me to the right side and i feel it has. But I certainly understand why one would be scared of putting hard earned money on the irsh these days.

yeah locking horns with pags is not a favorable scenario but i found an interesting trend of when i disagree with him this year .... when i disagree and lay off my bet , pags wins his bet and i save money. But when i have actually made the bet that i like , it has come in for me most of the time. So i think maybe i value his opinion so much that i need overwhelming evidence ( based on my capping style ) to be opposite of him and that it has panned out for me in that way. With that said , the guy is a better handicapper than me so i suppose long term it is bad business for me to be opposite. I think i laid out why i have to bet it though and in the end i am stuck having to trust myself in something i have been successful at for a long time. Really one of the best situational spots i have seen all year. pags usually does his writeups on thursday nights so i am interested to read some more of his takes on this game though i have talked to him on the phone about this one so i have an idea where he is coming from and he has reasons. Shit , we can't agree on every game.

glad to see we agree on terps , ncstate and rutgers. i have some concerns about the rutgers game situationally which i will talk about but i am leaning to adding it to the card. Seems like a possibile drbob type play too so i feel a little pressured to decide prior to 245 pacific time.

gl this week bull
 
O-State said:
VK I just read this some great thoughts I agree with it.

If Navy gets 20-23 which sound about right, isn't the over in play?? I think it is, and the line came out maybe 48? it's 52 now. Time of possession a concern but IMO ND is going to score early and often and Navy actually has big play ability, they can score really quick on a few long runs, as evidence by that comeback 20 some points vs. Temple all in the 4th quarter.

Ok last week's game for ND is giving great value. Antother thing giving good value IMO is Rutgers and Wake games both under 45. Rutgers offense sucked balls back then and as you said Skinner was pretending to be Juice Williams or something thinking about hoes and Rutgers missed scoring chances. I mean every other game has gone over this spread we are seeing except for the SMU game.

ND is going to score my friend. BC, Chestnut Hill, at night, the Eagles turn into superman. I am going to start looking into playing their ass every time I get an espn night game at Chestnut.

This is what I think. ND pretty average team. But when they face below average defenses, they do not have a problem moving it whatsoever. Not a problemo.

And Weissy Weis Wuss, he is going to fake the punt with 30 seconds left up by 20. That's the stuff pompous ass does and his job is on the line you can bank on it.
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Well , i will be playing the over and my waiting has cost me some line value. I was reading in my phil steele last night that notre dame has not punted in the last 3 years vs navy............
 
nawlins51 said:
Fuck VK. I am scratching Navy. Great write up. You talked me off Navy but I won't flip flop on this one.Instead i will pull for yall Irish backers.I didn't even know they excepted a bowl bid.Man I feel stupid. I figured they were still fighting for a bid. Oh well. Too much going on.I feel overwhelmed right now. There is 1 bet I am loving though,San Jose State +15. If you like the under then you have to like the cover. :cheers:
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i definitiely lean sjsu in the game because of the matchup but it seems that there offense has regressed as the year has gone on instead of gotten better. just the same , that seems like too many points to give a team who matches up that well defensively with what nevada likes to do. I feel the under is the safer bet but i certainly see where you are coming from with liking sjsu. They tackle well.
 
lets talk about rutgers at south florida a second and why i like the rutgers side.

-rutgers is playing good football right now. Earlier in the year a lack of team chemistry seemed to be hurting them and off the field distractions concerning the stadium issues and the administration seemed to be hurting the coaching staff ( butch davis coached schiano under the table and schiano coached a miserable game at navy ). All that has apparently been put to bed and rutgers is finally playing good offense.

-the defense has been solid all year. giving up 327 yards a game and just 21 points a game. They have had some games where they sort of did the bend but don't break thing but that seems ok against a usf offense that has moved the ball at times but has not been scoring as expected.

-One thing rutgers has done well all year is defend the pass and you have to think that grothe is the guy that usf turns to to try and get things done. Quite frankly , Grothe has regressed year over year and whether you believe the rumors of shadiness about him or whether you believe he has just gotten worse , it is plain to see with the naked eye. The bulls have been throwing for 250 a game at 7.9 per attempt which is one of the better pass attacks in the country... but somehow have just 14 td passes. They struggle near the goalline. if that trend continues it seems like a good matchup for the rutgers bend but dont break defensive style.

-I think if you are going to get to rutgers it is on the ground and usf is averaging a good amount of yards ont he ground but they tend to come from one or two really long runs in a game and not a steady successful attack. In fact , a lot of the usf rushing numbers come from grothe scrambles. Also it has seemed to me that leavitt has often times given up on the run a tad too early.

-despite having an off year in my opinion , i prefer schiano to leavitt.

-i like my chances in a variety of paces. in other words , if this becomes a grind it out type of game , i like having the points here ... if it becomes a shootout , rutgers can throw the football and score. This also means the backdoor is open.

-rutgers is playing good football right now and usf is not. USF continually gets lined with expectations rather than with on the field production so i do think there is inherent line value against this squad right now.

-south florida is one of the most undisciplined teams you will see. they committ a lot of dumb dumb dumb penalties and often at key moments.

-- stylistically the most comparable offense to what south florida likes to do that rutgers has faced is cincinnati who the knights held to just over 300 yards , 15 first downs and 13 points BUT that was also a game where the bearcats were playing Anderson at qb.

Lets talk about the concerns.

-usf is off of a bye week

-the trip to south florida is the toughest conference road trip in the big east.

-major revenge game from last year. i dont know how many recall that game but rutgers faked SEVERAL kicks successfully and benefitted from some incredible officiating to take a narrow win in piscataway when usf was ranked #2 in the country

- i dont trust rutgers. team seems capable of imploding at any time though i think it is a good sign that when they fell behind 14-0 early to syracuse last week that they came back and rolled the orangemen over the rest of the way.

-fg kicking from rutgers is bad. But the usf kicker might be even worse.




Some of the reaons i like this play and some of the reasons i have not played it yet.
 
Yikes VK. Not sure I agree on the assessment/play on the SJSU/Nevada total.

Spartans have put up 30+ on every bad D they've played thus far, so what do you see different in this one?
 
hoopsstar22 said:
Yikes VK. Not sure I agree on the assessment/play on the SJSU/Nevada total.

Spartans have put up 30+ on every bad D they've played thus far, so what do you see different in this one?
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i completely disagree.

If you look over their schedule you will find they have struggled offensively against almost everyone and that even against really bad defenses they failed to reach the thirties offensively but scored defensively , which seems unlikely given nevada style.

give me a minute or two and i will look it up again but i remember it from capping the game out .. hang on.
 
TY.

I haven't looked too in depth, just looking at face scores.

Quick look, aside from 2 D TD's against New Mexico St, all points against Utah State, Idaho, and SD St were offensive.

Those are the defenses I compare Nevada's to.
 
Hawaii was -6 in TOs, so I throw that anomaly of a game out of consideration.

Boise, Stanford, and Nebraska are also out because I consider them much, much better Ds as what Nevada possesses. Whether that's right or wrong, for simplicity sake, its how I approach it.
 
Alright .. first of all ... nevada has a good run defense so i don't put their defense in the low class level of some of the defenses we are going to be talking about and sjsu has shown they simply can't pass for a crap to expose the nevada weaknesses. But here is a look at sjsu offensive production against some really bad defenses.

---30 points , 20 first downs , 401 yards vs idaho who gives up on average 41.9 points , 24.3 first downs and 476.9 yards a game.

---i wouldn't put latech in the bad defense category but they were shutout by latech at home. 6 first downs and 148 total yards of offense last week

---at nmsu they had 31 points , 11 first downs and 201 yards of offense. nmsu gives up 33.7 points , 21.2 first downs and 384 yards per game. They had two interception returns for td's ...so 17 offensive points vs nmsu

---against utah state they had 30 points , 18 first downs , and 401 yards of offense against a team that gives up 443 yards , 36.9 points per game , and 23.3 first downs per game. Againt hey had an interception return for a td or they score just 23 on utah state.

--they did have one big game vs sdsu ( who hasn't ? ) where they put up 35 true offensive points and 476 yards and 22 first downs but even that was mostly davis.


-- at hawaii they benefitted from 6 turnovers and still managed just 11 first downs , 20 points and 237 yards ...

-- 13 vs ucdavis , 12 at nebraska , 10 at stanford , 16 vs boise st

They are banged up is the main reason for their woes.

kyle reed who sucks anyway , loses a lot of what he has to offer ( mobility ) when he has this tailbone injury that he is dealing with. He can't beat anyone consistently with his arm. They lost their best wide receiver earlier int he year in kevin jurovich from complications involving mono. And their best offensive weapon yonus davis will be missing this game this week.

sjsu is one of 15 teams averaging less than 300 yards per game offensively and they have managed to do it while playing some of the worst defenses in the country. 19.7 points per game and 14.7 first downs per game. ouch.

Tomey knows it too and so he will pound the rock and hope that his defense can keep him in the game .. and in this case , i think they can. ..as they give up roughly 3.5 a carry and just 120 a game on the ground. yes , nevada will have some success but not as much as they have found against lesser rush defenses.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
TY.

I haven't looked too in depth, just looking at face scores.

Quick look, aside from 2 D TD's against New Mexico St, all points against Utah State, Idaho, and SD St were offensive.

Those are the defenses I compare Nevada's to.
Click to expand...


i think they had an int return for td against utah st too.

And iw ould even be ok with giving them some credit for that ( all the defensive scores ) if it were not for the fact that nevada rushes the ball as the staple of the offense and is less likely to have that happen to them.
 
also hoops ...... nevada has some problems defensively but its all pass defense.

the rush defense is giving up just 2.56 a carry and 73-74 yards per game.

sjsu doesnt have the horses to exploit the secondary, they are a running team
 
kyle- You DO make a compelling case for ND and I am interested.
It will be enlightening to see what pags has to say about it tonite.
And thanks for reminding me why I like Rutgers.:smiley_acbe:
 
Thanks for sharing your research.

I will meddle over it a little more.

I really think we need to focus on developing a model for totals some how. But that can be an off the record conversation.

Have a great weekend!

:shake:
 
added

notre dame/navy over 52


Waited for pushback on this game but it just kept drifting up and so i couldnt let it get beyond the 52 really with a good conscience.
 
buffalo/akron under 61
purdue/iowa over 43.5

buff/akr -- it's not that i dont think both teams can have some success moving the ball it's just that i think the number is too high. i made it lower and was likely playing and now that it has gone up more ( recent mac overs the cause ? ) , it became obvious that i would be on it. this might keep going up as it has a lot of momentum that way but 61 was the number i was looking for.
 
eliminated south carolina , purdue and florida state from my talk me off leans

south carolina -- frankly i am just done getting my bankroll demolished trying to beat meyer and the gators when the line is ridiculous. Even when i cap the game correctly like hawaii or miami florida i lose as meyer tries hard to cover. And unlike how the gators were playing back then , they are in full stride now. don't get me wrong ... south carolina should cover this game , i just prefer to get in the way of lesser right now.

fsu -- boston college defense scares me enough this week that i dont want to lay the price. i may not be giving enough credit to that eagles defense this year.

purdue - became a tmo after the big line move .. but i cant figure out the line move ,,,,, so staying away. there is obviously something i am missing in regards to this game and i already have a total bet on it. Scared because i bet an over here and the line has moved up 3.5 points with money on the favorite but the total has actually dropped. So the expectation of the money has been that purdue doesnt score. since i dont understand the line move and it appears it involves a negative feeling towards purdue scoring , i dont want to possibly lose two units on this game. on paper it should go over this total though ... and i think 17.5 is too many and i have been about as big a proponent of iowa this year as you could find.
 
^oh please kyle. not unless there is a game-changing miscall on the fumble like there was last year

gl this week; like the adds and i'm on the buff/akron under myself tonight. defense!
 
Seems like the strangest spot for a letdown all year .... tough stretch of games followed by baylor , followed by a letdown ??
Click to expand...

It seems natural to me. What happens on Friday afternoon when people at work start looking forward to the weekend? They slack off. After nine games in nine weeks, including that murderous four-game stretch, Texas could very well be looking forward to their week off.
 
Don't have a lot to add to the thread right now but wanted to my friday look at how well i did beating the numbers. i try to do this every friday because getting good numbers is almost as important if not more important that betting hte right side. i did a good job with the total last night getting a 61 and unless there were some very late 61.5 , i might have gotten the best available on that game but i didnt check. of course overtime and the incredible 4th down conversion rate made a very good bet a loser but that happens when you bet unders .. sometimes they go to overtime. Anyway here is how i did this week vs current bookmaker ( at time of post ) odds. obviously some of this will be different bys aturday morning but this gives me an idea.
BTW , i suggest that everyone who caps football or bets football to do this each week. nice tool for how well you are seeing the market.

ncstate +4 ................................current + 3.5 ...................... differential + 0.50
TEXAS -12.5 .............................current -13.5 ...................... differential +1.00
oregon -3 ................................. current -6 :) ...................... differential +3.00
maryland +3 .............................. current +3 ,......................... differential 0.00
notre dame -3 ............................ current -4 ......................... differential +1.00
ucf +7.5 .................................... current +7 ( key half :) ) ...... differential +0.50
sjsu/nevada under 53 ................... current 51 ...................... differentuial + 1.00
notredame/navy over 52 ................ current 51.5 .................... differential -0.50
buffalo/akron under 61 ...................already a loser .................. i hate the mac
purdue/iowa over 43.5 ................ current 44 ( key half :) ....differntial + 0.50

So outside of the notre dame total which i really screwed up ( think i got about the worst number i could have ) , i think i had a pretty good week of beating the market. What i really like is how i got the best of some key numbers .... +7.5 vs the 7 with ucf , 3 instead of 4 with the irish , 4 instead of 3.5 with the wolfpack , and 43.5 instead of 44 with the iowa total. feel real good about that. Also feel good about the oregon line obviously.

gl gang .... really put a lot into this thread over the last few days but what i really liked this week is that i had some constraints early in the week and you guys talked football in here without me "pushing" the thread along ... great input , great analysis even by those opposite of me this week. One thing that i really like is that we all keep our disagreements about football in here about the games and never make it personal. The thread has become a welcome place for folks to come in and debate and throw capping ideas off of one another without the insults or personal attacks. I attribute this to the number of quality cappers at this site who want to focus on winning money and not on drama and the fact that CTG promotes a no bashing policy that makes sharing our opinions easier. This weeks thread may be my favorite of any that i have had on the site in the last two years and through little of my own effort but through the great input from the member base here. so just wanted to say thanks for making this a good thread this week.

now lets win some money saturday.
 
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