2008 cfb -- time to post my week 12 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Will respond to rest later today ...... but wanted to answer this one.
i made it 9.5
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
lol neil
thanks kyle....i'll probably stay away then because i'm obviously way off
thanks kyle....i'll probably stay away then because i'm obviously way off
tunasunday
Pretty much a regular
VK, I am with you on NC State.
I have noticed that a few people that I highly respect (VK, Pags, Vanzack, ETG) have been on the Wolfpack at various times recently with good reason.
At the beginning of the season was a disaster, as QB Wilson struggled with inexperience and injury. The offense sputtered the first few games, creating a tremendous line value for a 4 game homestand in which NC State covered the spread 3 out of 4 games (the South Florida game, the only non-cover, Wilson was out with injury and there was a monsoon that lasted through the 2nd and 3rd quarters). With the return of RB Eugene from injury, the maturity of a group of young receivers, and Russell Wilson's comprehension of the offense, State has moved the ball very well the last few weeks.
It was strange that during the homestand that while the offense finally starting clicking, but the defense drastically regressed. This was mainly due to injury of the best DL, Cash, and the best player on the roster, LB Nate Irving, and the inconsistency of the best DB, Morgan.
Coach O'Brien benched Morgan for the start of the FSU game, and once Morgan returned to action he has played much better--he had an excellent game last week against Duke.
When asked why the defense was having issues getting off the field during October, Coach O'Brien responded, (paraphrased) "Nate Irving single-handedly got us off the field in many instances early in the season and without him out there we have problems." Irving returned last week for the Duke game and was all over the place on the Defense, it seemed he was making or around every tackle.
This team is peaking, they have gained some experience, they are getting healthy, and they are very well coached. Wilson is impressive, this kid makes great decisions with the football and is going to be a fantastic QB if he doesn't give up football for baseball. The defense played much better last week against Duke with Irving's return to the lineup.
One thing to add, for what it is worth: O'Brien is emphasizing being the mythical "State" Champion by beating ECU (done), Duke (done), Wake this week and North Carolina next week. I am not a big fan of motivational ploys, but I do expect to see the Wolfpack focused for their first home game in a month.
When I look at the common opponents, it opens my eyes as to how much value is in this line of NC State plus 4 points at home:
State went to Duke and won by 10; Wake beat Duke in OT at home.
State went to UMD and lost by a FG on the last play of the game; Wake went to UMd and was blown out 26-0.
I have much respect for Grobe as a coach and Wake is experienced with quality playmakers on both sides of the ball. There have been some respected handicappers fading Wake for most of the year, but I haven't had the guts to go against Grobe too often. This team is not the same without Josh Adams running the ball and Sam Swank punting and kicking moonrocket FGs--their return from injury this week is key to Wake's chances. Their status for this week is unknown, as best I can gather.
Against his in-state recruiting rival, Grobe is 4-3 straight up, but 6-1 ATS, including winning SU and ATS the last 3 years when NC State has been down.
I did not see the UVA game last week, but from examining the box score it appears that Wake benefited by forcing UVA to turn the ball over. Neither Swank nor Adams played. I don't think Wake will be able to capitalize on turnovers this week, as Russell Wilson has protected the ball (1 INT in 168 attempts) and the team is not prone to turn the ball over as in years past.
The Wolfpack have covered 6 out of the last 7, and this week I see no need to stop milking this cash cow getting over a FG at home against a relatively equal opponent. Glad to see you, pags and BC on the same side this week--lets cash it.
I have noticed that a few people that I highly respect (VK, Pags, Vanzack, ETG) have been on the Wolfpack at various times recently with good reason.
At the beginning of the season was a disaster, as QB Wilson struggled with inexperience and injury. The offense sputtered the first few games, creating a tremendous line value for a 4 game homestand in which NC State covered the spread 3 out of 4 games (the South Florida game, the only non-cover, Wilson was out with injury and there was a monsoon that lasted through the 2nd and 3rd quarters). With the return of RB Eugene from injury, the maturity of a group of young receivers, and Russell Wilson's comprehension of the offense, State has moved the ball very well the last few weeks.
It was strange that during the homestand that while the offense finally starting clicking, but the defense drastically regressed. This was mainly due to injury of the best DL, Cash, and the best player on the roster, LB Nate Irving, and the inconsistency of the best DB, Morgan.
Coach O'Brien benched Morgan for the start of the FSU game, and once Morgan returned to action he has played much better--he had an excellent game last week against Duke.
When asked why the defense was having issues getting off the field during October, Coach O'Brien responded, (paraphrased) "Nate Irving single-handedly got us off the field in many instances early in the season and without him out there we have problems." Irving returned last week for the Duke game and was all over the place on the Defense, it seemed he was making or around every tackle.
This team is peaking, they have gained some experience, they are getting healthy, and they are very well coached. Wilson is impressive, this kid makes great decisions with the football and is going to be a fantastic QB if he doesn't give up football for baseball. The defense played much better last week against Duke with Irving's return to the lineup.
One thing to add, for what it is worth: O'Brien is emphasizing being the mythical "State" Champion by beating ECU (done), Duke (done), Wake this week and North Carolina next week. I am not a big fan of motivational ploys, but I do expect to see the Wolfpack focused for their first home game in a month.
When I look at the common opponents, it opens my eyes as to how much value is in this line of NC State plus 4 points at home:
State went to Duke and won by 10; Wake beat Duke in OT at home.
State went to UMD and lost by a FG on the last play of the game; Wake went to UMd and was blown out 26-0.
I have much respect for Grobe as a coach and Wake is experienced with quality playmakers on both sides of the ball. There have been some respected handicappers fading Wake for most of the year, but I haven't had the guts to go against Grobe too often. This team is not the same without Josh Adams running the ball and Sam Swank punting and kicking moonrocket FGs--their return from injury this week is key to Wake's chances. Their status for this week is unknown, as best I can gather.
Against his in-state recruiting rival, Grobe is 4-3 straight up, but 6-1 ATS, including winning SU and ATS the last 3 years when NC State has been down.
I did not see the UVA game last week, but from examining the box score it appears that Wake benefited by forcing UVA to turn the ball over. Neither Swank nor Adams played. I don't think Wake will be able to capitalize on turnovers this week, as Russell Wilson has protected the ball (1 INT in 168 attempts) and the team is not prone to turn the ball over as in years past.
The Wolfpack have covered 6 out of the last 7, and this week I see no need to stop milking this cash cow getting over a FG at home against a relatively equal opponent. Glad to see you, pags and BC on the same side this week--lets cash it.
Overreaction IMO. Ohio State cruised vs the Northwestern B team and Ill lost vs WMU. Really thanks to some sky play by Juice. Couple Ints in the 2ndQ believe setup TDs for WMU who didnt do all that much offensively the rest from what I recall. ILL though has dont much to speak of really tradings W and L .
Not sure of any injuries with the Illini just talking of the top of my head . At most I would make Penn State around -6 @ Ill at most -7 and Ohio State comes in a bit softer IMO . Though Ohio State has generally improved the past few games as well so maybe I could see a TD . Ohio State does have payback because ILL beat them @ home but also previous year ILL only lost by 7 at home. ILL defense is pretty solid and Ohio State offense still rather so-so IMO. Less then 800 yards of offense in the blowout road wins about 4 yds per carry from Wells & pryor less then 175 yds passing I believe in both not combined . :cheers:Leaning +10 ....
O
O-State
Guest
Yeah I'm leaning Illini +10 and the Under. Zook is pissed like when they lost to Wisconsin. Lini play good coming off losses.
Just see Pryor being one dimensional TOSU having trouble scoring. Illini can't run and have abandoned it, they struggled to put points up on WMU.
Just see Pryor being one dimensional TOSU having trouble scoring. Illini can't run and have abandoned it, they struggled to put points up on WMU.
Agree on the under was hoping for 45 or better see 47 . Think 23or 24-20 game is reasonable and see no reason why ILL cant beat them SU here . I mean more in having a chance not in likely to do so. Even 17-13 game wouldnt suprise me if both teams play solid defense and the offenses dont turn the ball over . Ill moved the ball at WMU but sucked on 3rd down 1/13(2/4 on 4th ) and had the ball on 26 minutes but have over 400 yards.......:cheers:
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
thanks fellas...i took the 10, fuck it. may be wrong, but northwestern is not as good as illinois imo, and the bucks were -11 there. line is overreaction 2 ways i think...perhaps maybe not to the degree i am thinking, but it's still a lot of points for team that the bucks defense just couldn't stop at all at home last year
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
That's just it...even when things get rough for Texas, they respond and find a way to get back in the game, and at times, run away with it in the 2nd Half.
KU, on the other hand, folds when things get rough. If Nebraska sacked Reesing 5 times last Saturday, I'll be stunned if Texas doesn't better that number.
Not sure how this line can be that far off, especially in KU's favor. Texas' defense has allowed 13 fewer TD's than Kansas on the year, and an average of 50 yards less per game.
And, just look at KU's schedule...they've lost 3 of their last four, and have yet to beat a ranked opponent this year, and the only one they lost by less than 14 to was USF.
IMO, you're giving a potentially .500 team, with a banged up O-Line WAY too much credit. Texas still has hopes of being in the National Title game, and there's no way they take their foot off the gas if/once they get the lead. Reesing is a sneaky little shit, but there's no way he can do it all on his own...not in this one.
At Texas, Kansas might be a 17-20 pt dog...
:shake:
I am not disagreeing with anyone's take on these two teams . My point that doesnt seem to be coming through is Texas hasnt been in this position before and neither really has KU . That position being Texas hasnt played a decent team and laid 2 TDS especially on the road . Look at the other teams they played and they were dogs and small favs or garbage teams( dont say Baylor who 3 TDS plus home pups to Mizzou and OU) . Now they play a team MUCH , MUCH more dangerous then Colorado . Thats the closest game for Texas to this KU team and I think we all agree that KU's offense is loads better . Same deal with KU . KU did lose three of four but TT , @ OU and @ Nebraska . Two of those games they were basically PKems which means they were basically expected to win or it was a true coin flip who would win. The KU game was basically TT coming out party . Sure they won by 40 but KU moved theball and had tons of tunrovers. Now how many saw Tech as a layup that day as a PKem??? Dont think it was anywhere near the amount of people who see Texas as a layup at 2 TDs . Now looking back it seems cray Tech was basically a PK but just as much so how is KU favored @ NEB when they havent won there in 40 years !
Just to get into how far Texas has come . They were +7 vs OU in the Red River Shootout while KU was +19 @ OU . If Texas played @ OU rather then the neutral field they would have been +11 to +13 @OU on that day . Now granted Texas has shown its a legit team and KU showed it was a pretender.
Texas has come a long way but its not 100% healthy and probably peaked at home vs Missouri . Kansas can score plain and simple IMO . To me this is the saturation point for Texas they have failed 3 straight times vs the spread but really late in the game . They will play a game where the spread probably doesnt become much of a concern and I that is probably here IMO . I think this game is just alot mor competitive then expected. No reason why KU cant exchange scores with Texas IMO.
So Kansas was sacked 5 x last week still scored 30 something points on the road and still were down just 3 early 4th quarter . Whats so bad about that ? I am basing my opinion on how both teams have been lined and how they preformed vs the spread . Coupled with texas being banged up ...
I may be wrong but am very confident believing +14 is to many ....:cheers:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
great discussion in my absence guys.
want to lock in some plays and then i will post my strong leans and talk me offs tomorrow.
been caught researching some cbb and nhl the last few nights but i have done extensive work on cfb and have a lot to say this week.
keep the discussion in my thread going until i am able to contribute more , myself.
nut -- you make some good points bud ,,,, i dont see 14 on that game anywhere unless you locked that in already.
texasfight -- give me a phone call, have some longhorn questions for you ,.. thanks bud. always appreciate your vast knowledge of this program.
want to lock in some plays and then i will post my strong leans and talk me offs tomorrow.
been caught researching some cbb and nhl the last few nights but i have done extensive work on cfb and have a lot to say this week.
keep the discussion in my thread going until i am able to contribute more , myself.
nut -- you make some good points bud ,,,, i dont see 14 on that game anywhere unless you locked that in already.
texasfight -- give me a phone call, have some longhorn questions for you ,.. thanks bud. always appreciate your vast knowledge of this program.
I have some +14 -120 and +14.5 -120. Same deal though 13 /13.5 . I wouldnt not bet the game at +13 just prefer to have the key number .
For a shit card I cant recall seeing so many lines so fast in both college and pro foots.
My leans from 48 hours ago--
<TABLE class=tborder id=post1154332 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 1px solid">11-10-2008, 01:39 AM <!-- / status icon and date --></TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 1px solid" align=right> #59 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 0px solid" width=175>SportsNut<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1154332", true); </SCRIPT>
FondyESQ.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: New York
Posts: 14,645
</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_1154332 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid"><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Would be suprised if this card interests me until later in the week. What a bunch of shit games .
NIU (was -3 now -3.5)maybe during the week and maybe fade Ball State . Depending on who is at QB fade VaTech(was -4 now -5). Akron possibly(was -2.5 now -3 ) .
The Ville maybe as home pups but pretty down on them.
Maryland (was +3 heaing to +2.5 now)
Cuse 1st Half (was +10.5 now +9.5)
ND probably a big play on this (was -3 now -4).
Penn State (was -34.5 now -36)
Minnesota (+14 now +13.5)
Michigan (was -3 now -3.5 or -4)
Vandy ( was +4.5 now +4)
So Miss ( was -2 now -3)
Air Force(and Under ??)( finally a break was +4.5 now 5.5)
South Carolina ( was +21.5 now 20.5)
Iowa State
Oregon State
ULL probaly a big play on this
UCF
Idaho
USF
ILL
FSU
Troy
SDST 1st Half
ASU
You get the idea....every line got worse !
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
For a shit card I cant recall seeing so many lines so fast in both college and pro foots.
My leans from 48 hours ago--
<TABLE class=tborder id=post1154332 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 1px solid">11-10-2008, 01:39 AM <!-- / status icon and date --></TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 1px solid" align=right> #59 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #d1d1e1 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d1d1e1 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d1d1e1 0px solid" width=175>SportsNut<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1154332", true); </SCRIPT>
FondyESQ.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: New York
Posts: 14,645
</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_1154332 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d1d1e1 1px solid"><!-- icon and title -->
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Would be suprised if this card interests me until later in the week. What a bunch of shit games .
NIU (was -3 now -3.5)maybe during the week and maybe fade Ball State . Depending on who is at QB fade VaTech(was -4 now -5). Akron possibly(was -2.5 now -3 ) .
The Ville maybe as home pups but pretty down on them.
Maryland (was +3 heaing to +2.5 now)
Cuse 1st Half (was +10.5 now +9.5)
ND probably a big play on this (was -3 now -4).
Penn State (was -34.5 now -36)
Minnesota (+14 now +13.5)
Michigan (was -3 now -3.5 or -4)
Vandy ( was +4.5 now +4)
So Miss ( was -2 now -3)
Air Force(and Under ??)( finally a break was +4.5 now 5.5)
South Carolina ( was +21.5 now 20.5)
Iowa State
Oregon State
ULL probaly a big play on this
UCF
Idaho
USF
ILL
FSU
Troy
SDST 1st Half
ASU
You get the idea....every line got worse !
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Last edited:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
speaking of line moves .... any idea what the iowa move is all about ?? seemed like it should move the other way but maybe i missed an injury or something. possible snow there too.
HAs to be an injury but not sure where. Game was -15 got bumped to -15.5 then straight to -17.5 .
I cant find shit and can only guess Painter was definetly ruled out .
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Good points SN. However, you keep referring to Texas' 38-14 win at CO...the Longhorns were up 38-7, when CO scored a late, meaningless TD. The Longhorns were up 28-0 before the Buffs scored their first TD.
IMO, Texas was such small faves or dogs earlier in the year because the linesmakers weren't aware of what a great team Texas was. Even with their defense being somewhat nicked up, I believe they are better than KU's. In KU's four games this season against any team with an offensive pulse, they've given up the following...
37 @ USF
45 @ OU
63 vs TT
45 @ NEB
KU's weakness is clearly in their secondary, and McCoy & Co. should have no trouble exploiting that. And, McCoy has still only thrown 7 INTs the entire season, compared to Reesing, who's thrown 7 in his last four games alone (when they've played any kind of defense with a pulse). Even with their defense nicked up, I will be shocked if the Longhorns don't get pressure on Reesing, and force a few more INTs.
I'm not doubting KU's ability to score...not at all...but Texas might very well double the number KU puts up. I'm thinking something along the lines of...
Texas 48
Kansas 27
If Texas gets up early, it's over...and that is exactly what I'm expecting. Reesing will be forced to start throwing the rock even more, and when that happens, a few INTs will lead to a short field, and even more scoring opportunities for Texas.
As for the Baylor game, Griffin was squashed by Texas nearly all game long. With his blazing speed, he can break a TD on anybody...and I mean ANYBODY. Reesing is no Griffin. Can he scramble? Sure. Will he break off a 80 yard TD run? Hell no...especially not against Texas. Griffin accounted for more than half of Baylor's rushing yards this week. Against an offense like KU, Texas should have no trouble stuffing the run and making KU one dimensional.
I guess we just see this game quite differently...Texas should be rested after a particularly easy win last week, at home, against Baylor. Just look at the boxscore...they dominated the game from start to finish, both on and scoreboard, and statistically. Yes, KU is a better team, but Baylor has the more explosive player in Griffin, which KU lacks for the most part.
Good health on KU, SN...
:shake:
IMO, Texas was such small faves or dogs earlier in the year because the linesmakers weren't aware of what a great team Texas was. Even with their defense being somewhat nicked up, I believe they are better than KU's. In KU's four games this season against any team with an offensive pulse, they've given up the following...
37 @ USF
45 @ OU
63 vs TT
45 @ NEB
KU's weakness is clearly in their secondary, and McCoy & Co. should have no trouble exploiting that. And, McCoy has still only thrown 7 INTs the entire season, compared to Reesing, who's thrown 7 in his last four games alone (when they've played any kind of defense with a pulse). Even with their defense nicked up, I will be shocked if the Longhorns don't get pressure on Reesing, and force a few more INTs.
I'm not doubting KU's ability to score...not at all...but Texas might very well double the number KU puts up. I'm thinking something along the lines of...
Texas 48
Kansas 27
If Texas gets up early, it's over...and that is exactly what I'm expecting. Reesing will be forced to start throwing the rock even more, and when that happens, a few INTs will lead to a short field, and even more scoring opportunities for Texas.
As for the Baylor game, Griffin was squashed by Texas nearly all game long. With his blazing speed, he can break a TD on anybody...and I mean ANYBODY. Reesing is no Griffin. Can he scramble? Sure. Will he break off a 80 yard TD run? Hell no...especially not against Texas. Griffin accounted for more than half of Baylor's rushing yards this week. Against an offense like KU, Texas should have no trouble stuffing the run and making KU one dimensional.
I guess we just see this game quite differently...Texas should be rested after a particularly easy win last week, at home, against Baylor. Just look at the boxscore...they dominated the game from start to finish, both on and scoreboard, and statistically. Yes, KU is a better team, but Baylor has the more explosive player in Griffin, which KU lacks for the most part.
Good health on KU, SN...
:shake:
G
Gyno
Guest
G
Gyno
Guest
Kyle?
Only 2 bets this week?
Only 2 bets this week?
O
O-State
Guest
This Texas defense is loads better than anything Kansas has seen all year. This Oline of Mangino is really a weak unit. Spikes freshman LT he's out of Ohio so I know about him and the kid is raw and not ready. We saw vs. an overrated USF the Kansas Oline really get dismantled but the kid that just balls like a pick up game of basketball Reesing made plays for them. Reesing is able to just scramble a bit to find some receivers. Todd also never threw a pick like hardly ever until this year. Duress and doing everything himself has caused Reesing to throw 2 picks a game on average here recently. These receivers for Kansas are stiff’s and really not playmakers and have trouble getting separation one on one. The former qb Meir is now a receiver. Outside of Briscoe Montey Criscoe there is nobody…..Mid major athletes on this team. Everything for KU happens after the pocket collapses and Reesing balls. This is truly a one man show. And KU can forget about the run against Texas.
…..KU has only been 40 points or higher twice this season…all season. 40 on Florida International and 52 against Kansas State, so considering those quality of defenses disregard those numbers IMO. Kansas has been in the 30 point range 6 times this season. Sam Houston State, Iowa State, Colorado, and even Nebraska, those opponents a lot of teams score 30 on them. So……..the most quality defenses KU has faced, they put 21 on Texas Tech and 31 on Oklahoma, with one TD on OU being in final minute of garbage time.
So what I am getting at is this Kansas offense is overrated IMO. Not in Missouri, TT, Oklahoma, or Texas’s offense class. Kansas has no big play ability. Kansas struggles to put points up, as in it’s not a smooth easy thing to do. Reesing is shorthanded with just no firepower and he guts it out and it’s like painful to watch him effort to put these points up…..they can score but it is a chore.
Now Texas Defense triumps Oklahoma and TT. Texas Dline rush defense and specifically pass rush is probably best nationally. For Reesing and that Oline I just can’t fathom the difficulty.
…….Kansas struggles to put 30 up here. Absolutely they do. Oklahoma State couldn’t on this Texas D and Oklahoma and Missouri did but not by much….31 for Mizzou and 35 for Oklahoma. SportsNut has Kansas in 38-45 point range, I don’t see it. The pass rush is so huge in this game and Kansas doesn’t have TT Oline.
----Assume KU does get 34 points. Can Texas get 48??? Yes, IMO. Mack if he sees Kansas scoring will keep the dogs rolling. This Kansas defense is piss poor, the only competent offenses the faced… USF, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Nebraska, very good offenses I admit however, but they put up 37, 45, 63, and 45 points for Nebraska. Texas might not be in Oklahoma or Texas Tech class but they are better than Nebraska and USF offensively. The Kansas pass defense is 116. #116 in the country and total defense 92.
…….Texas can run the ball and burn the clock keep the KU offense off the field…these are different classes in both trenches and at every position quite frankly.
The Colorado game is the closest game to this one for Texas. Let me say Colorado played Kansas pretty evenly at Kansas and when Texas went into Colorado…..that was a tougher test than on paper. Colorado had been waiting on that game for years since they are in different divisions…..kind of like UTEP was amped to have Texas coming to town and played beyond capability. At that time Colorado felt they were a good football team and were playing better than they are now due to having some confidence.
VK, I pointed out the possibility of Texas being focused because it is a point SportsNut brought up and is relevant…..Texas has not had a letdown all year. Are they do? This is a young team, have they started to see blow these weaker teams out no problems and tape is showing Kansas is losing to teams Texas has beaten. I explained I didn’t think that would be the case as Texas's consistency is something I look upon in good light.
Favorites you have to look at emotion. If it is there, for the above reasons mentioned, I believe Texas cruises to an easy victory.
…..KU has only been 40 points or higher twice this season…all season. 40 on Florida International and 52 against Kansas State, so considering those quality of defenses disregard those numbers IMO. Kansas has been in the 30 point range 6 times this season. Sam Houston State, Iowa State, Colorado, and even Nebraska, those opponents a lot of teams score 30 on them. So……..the most quality defenses KU has faced, they put 21 on Texas Tech and 31 on Oklahoma, with one TD on OU being in final minute of garbage time.
So what I am getting at is this Kansas offense is overrated IMO. Not in Missouri, TT, Oklahoma, or Texas’s offense class. Kansas has no big play ability. Kansas struggles to put points up, as in it’s not a smooth easy thing to do. Reesing is shorthanded with just no firepower and he guts it out and it’s like painful to watch him effort to put these points up…..they can score but it is a chore.
Now Texas Defense triumps Oklahoma and TT. Texas Dline rush defense and specifically pass rush is probably best nationally. For Reesing and that Oline I just can’t fathom the difficulty.
…….Kansas struggles to put 30 up here. Absolutely they do. Oklahoma State couldn’t on this Texas D and Oklahoma and Missouri did but not by much….31 for Mizzou and 35 for Oklahoma. SportsNut has Kansas in 38-45 point range, I don’t see it. The pass rush is so huge in this game and Kansas doesn’t have TT Oline.
----Assume KU does get 34 points. Can Texas get 48??? Yes, IMO. Mack if he sees Kansas scoring will keep the dogs rolling. This Kansas defense is piss poor, the only competent offenses the faced… USF, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Nebraska, very good offenses I admit however, but they put up 37, 45, 63, and 45 points for Nebraska. Texas might not be in Oklahoma or Texas Tech class but they are better than Nebraska and USF offensively. The Kansas pass defense is 116. #116 in the country and total defense 92.
…….Texas can run the ball and burn the clock keep the KU offense off the field…these are different classes in both trenches and at every position quite frankly.
The Colorado game is the closest game to this one for Texas. Let me say Colorado played Kansas pretty evenly at Kansas and when Texas went into Colorado…..that was a tougher test than on paper. Colorado had been waiting on that game for years since they are in different divisions…..kind of like UTEP was amped to have Texas coming to town and played beyond capability. At that time Colorado felt they were a good football team and were playing better than they are now due to having some confidence.
VK, I pointed out the possibility of Texas being focused because it is a point SportsNut brought up and is relevant…..Texas has not had a letdown all year. Are they do? This is a young team, have they started to see blow these weaker teams out no problems and tape is showing Kansas is losing to teams Texas has beaten. I explained I didn’t think that would be the case as Texas's consistency is something I look upon in good light.
Favorites you have to look at emotion. If it is there, for the above reasons mentioned, I believe Texas cruises to an easy victory.
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
:cheers:
I not referring to the CU game as much as the opponent . The conference has really two tiers with 2 teams stuck in the middle Nebraska and Kansas . Colorado on down are bad teams while Missouri up is the elite of the conference. My points are bot about CU its about KU being similiar type strength opponent but is much better really thanks to the offense .
I agree on Texas and thats my point they had value because they were under the radar.
Your points about KU make sense but you have 3 road games and the other vs 1 of the top 2 offenses in the country . Look at what Bradford did vs texas defense 28/39 387 5 tds 2int and that was a neutral site game. Imagine he had the short fields that Tech did. McCoys INT have also been lately think 5 in the last 5 games so its the same deal as he competition improved so did the INTs.
Griffin is all by himself on Baylor much easier to stop one guy especially when you can take away 1/2 his game by stopping his running game. Kansas has solid players on offense while Griffin is a one man show. Plus again they were home and its just not the same IMO.
We all have our opinions if I am right I wont be suprised to see Texas ever lead by more then 10 pts . I see -8.5 as more realistic for this game as I could live with making KU +16 at Texas ......just playing the number but wont be suprised ro see a 2004 flashback. I just think everyone forgets that KU played @ OU who is better then Texas IMO and held their own as I believe they kept it around 3 TDs all game mostly trailing by less. In fact the game was 31-24 late 3rd Quarter . It was 24-17 at half as well. So what better test then @ Oklahoma for this KU team ?? The had 491 yds @ OU and while they gave up a ton I think at home os clearly better and Texas is not OUs offense.
GL = If I am wrong so be it but really think this line is off
I not referring to the CU game as much as the opponent . The conference has really two tiers with 2 teams stuck in the middle Nebraska and Kansas . Colorado on down are bad teams while Missouri up is the elite of the conference. My points are bot about CU its about KU being similiar type strength opponent but is much better really thanks to the offense .
I agree on Texas and thats my point they had value because they were under the radar.
Your points about KU make sense but you have 3 road games and the other vs 1 of the top 2 offenses in the country . Look at what Bradford did vs texas defense 28/39 387 5 tds 2int and that was a neutral site game. Imagine he had the short fields that Tech did. McCoys INT have also been lately think 5 in the last 5 games so its the same deal as he competition improved so did the INTs.
Griffin is all by himself on Baylor much easier to stop one guy especially when you can take away 1/2 his game by stopping his running game. Kansas has solid players on offense while Griffin is a one man show. Plus again they were home and its just not the same IMO.
We all have our opinions if I am right I wont be suprised to see Texas ever lead by more then 10 pts . I see -8.5 as more realistic for this game as I could live with making KU +16 at Texas ......just playing the number but wont be suprised ro see a 2004 flashback. I just think everyone forgets that KU played @ OU who is better then Texas IMO and held their own as I believe they kept it around 3 TDs all game mostly trailing by less. In fact the game was 31-24 late 3rd Quarter . It was 24-17 at half as well. So what better test then @ Oklahoma for this KU team ?? The had 491 yds @ OU and while they gave up a ton I think at home os clearly better and Texas is not OUs offense.
GL = If I am wrong so be it but really think this line is off
I would not agree Texas DEF is loads better then OU or Tech's. Especially not comparing OU's defense at home to Texas on the road. No way is Texas defense going to better on the road the OU's at home.
Kansas offense I dont ever think I put in the upper tier category but people better start realizing Texas offense is nowhere near OU or TT . Look at the past 6 games texas scored 45+ once the above do that in a half. Texas did shit on offense @ TT gaining a bout 375 yds and 90 on 1 play . KU had 490 @ OU. Whats the excuse for the Oklahoma except for 1 brief moment OU at home lead by 7-14 points the ENTIRE GAME . Call the last TD garbage so they scored 24 @ OU which I think can easily translate to 27-28 home maybe even 31 . Again when has texas scored more then 45 ? They wont have the perfect storm game that Tech enjoyed. If you look at theOU game they had an INT inside the OU 10 and settled for a FG inside the 10. At home those might be TDs rather then 3 total points so until late in the game KU had no problem on offense.
You guys dont ever seem to seperate home and away games . You knock the weaker team for how it played somewhere on the road and pat the better team on the back for a good game at home. Its pretty simply when has Texas scored more then 45 pts on the road ?? They havent yet . They are not effecient enough . TT and OU rarely waste a chance to score when they have it.
I agree that CU didnt play that poorly @ KU but also remember that KU still covered the 2 TD spread. No one mentioned CU was o-3 in 1st H FGs vs texas and twie has the ball in the red zone and came away with zip. Differnt game 21-9 at half then 21-0...actually would have been 14-9 as the 3rd TD didnt come until after 3rd missed FG..
I think Kansas has already faced the 2 premier offenses in the country and the Texas offense is nothing to get overly worried about. Not sold on texas kicking Fgs beyond 40yds as they have missed 3 past 2 weeks which no one has mentioned either . The only offense they limited was Okie States whose offense is probably the weakest of the top conference teams IMO.
Lets see what happens ...:cheers:
O
O-State
Guest
Nut agree to disagree.
Texas is Texas is 9<SUP>th</SUP> in total defense. Oklahoma is 51 in total defense. TT is 57<SUP>th</SUP> in Total defense. Oklahoma allowed 480 pass yards to Kansas State and have been awful in that regard most of the year.
Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field, and they did it decisively enough to leave no doubt IMO. Your not going to find anyone else on this board that believes Oklahoma is better than Texas. The Texas lines dominated, 161-48 rush difference and unlike past years it was reversed, Texas Oline protected and Texas Dline pressured Bradford.
Texas offense is probably not on Oklahoma or Texas Tech levels. But they aren’t far behind so to say they are nowhere near I disagree. All 3 are top 10 nationally in the country in offense. And if you account for strength of schedule Texas is even closer to Tech and maybe even with Oklahoma because Texas can name the score on Washington, A&M, Kansas State, Nebraska as well. Texas has not played TAMU, KSU, Nebraska in conference, they have played @ Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech. Texas put nearly identical points up on Baylor as OU.
What was the OU-Kansas line, 21? If 3 points for home field that means Texas is favored by 17 at home, which IMO is short since Texas beat Oklahoma. So I see good line value here.
Nut @ UTEP @ Colorado @ TT I think is more difficult than @ Washington, @ Baylor, @ Kansas State, and @ TAMU. Same for Tech who played @ Nevada, @ KSU, @ TAMU. I don’t think you realize how much better UTEP and Colorado played then their normal self, it was their game of century, look at the UCF game last year. If racking up over 45 means so much means that much whatever. Just give me the superior defense all day.
Really though all this who’s offense is better is irreverent. Texas, TT, OU are all top 10 nationally. Nebraska’s offense is 14<SUP>th</SUP> nationally and put 45 up at home on Kansas as OU did. Once you reach a certain level offensively or fall within a range of say 1-25 as a top offense as example, the difference of points put up isn’t much when going against a weak defense. Your going to move the ball.
The one thing I will say is this. In regards to pressure, OU is 3<SUP>rd</SUP> in sacks, tied with Texas. Still think Texas is better at pass rush but Kansas has seen top pass rush before. I think Texas’s weakness is secondary as is Oklahoma’s but the schedule is so important here, Texas has seen Missouri, TT, Okie State passing. OU hasn't and Kansas was one of their bigget tests while for Texas it's a dropoff.
----There is a good chance this is a borderline cover the whole way. Meaning it’s something like 27-13 at halftime, and then just kind of teeters the whole game within a possession of the line. Texas might go up by 3 or 4 TD’s but Kansas stands the chance late of backdooring.
But Texas should be in control of the game and more than often covers due to the large large disparity in talent here. I lean to put Texas as a play but could see it as a strong opinion. Seems line is begging for Texas money, ala LW Minney, and yet the line is not moving -and you know ppl are pounding Texas……weird. If I say Texas is better than Oklahoma but then add in Kansas had Okl away and now get Texas at home, then that 14 point differential that occurred is right on the money. A big factor is Kansas had 134 on the ground vs. Oklahoma, I don’t know if they will get that this go around.
Mangino certainly hates Texas after 4 years ago they had um beat and attributed a bad call to the fact that it's "Texas" and we are "Kansas" that's why the ref called it. Just feel Texas defense and schedule overcomes a bit of the home field difference.
:shake:
tunasunday
Pretty much a regular
Apparently Tennessee paid little or no attention to Butch Davis' remarks last week regarding its coaching vacancy.
According to sources close to the UT football program, the North Carolina football coach’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, was contacted this weekend by Tennessee representatives to discuss Davis as a possible replacement to Phillip Fulmer, who was fired last week after 17 years on the job.
Davis told the media last week that he wasn’t interested in the job and that he plans on staying at UNC. But there are conditions that Carolina must meet to ensure Davis’ tenure in Chapel Hill is a long one.
According to a source close to Davis and UNC, the coach wants a more lucrative contract and guaranteed dates for the starts and completions of each phase in Kenan Stadium’s renovation. --Andrew Jones for Tennessee Scout.com
Pags--such distractions can't hurt UMd's chances this weekend.
According to sources close to the UT football program, the North Carolina football coach’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, was contacted this weekend by Tennessee representatives to discuss Davis as a possible replacement to Phillip Fulmer, who was fired last week after 17 years on the job.
Davis told the media last week that he wasn’t interested in the job and that he plans on staying at UNC. But there are conditions that Carolina must meet to ensure Davis’ tenure in Chapel Hill is a long one.
According to a source close to Davis and UNC, the coach wants a more lucrative contract and guaranteed dates for the starts and completions of each phase in Kenan Stadium’s renovation. --Andrew Jones for Tennessee Scout.com
Pags--such distractions can't hurt UMd's chances this weekend.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
posted the following played games to post #1
oregon -3
maryland +3
notre dame -3
ucf +7.5
will start going through the thread and responding. Given the amazing feedback we ahv ein regards to the texas at kansas game i will likely not be spending much time on that game the rest of the week. i htink both sides of the game have been articulated well and i think you know where i stand on it. also want to thank everyone for keeping the debate unheated and on point. sportsnut keeps it classy and i am glad others do as well.
will start responding to some things and then i will give my thoughts on a few of these plays. have a really nice writeup on notre dame this week.
oregon -3
maryland +3
notre dame -3
ucf +7.5
will start going through the thread and responding. Given the amazing feedback we ahv ein regards to the texas at kansas game i will likely not be spending much time on that game the rest of the week. i htink both sides of the game have been articulated well and i think you know where i stand on it. also want to thank everyone for keeping the debate unheated and on point. sportsnut keeps it classy and i am glad others do as well.
will start responding to some things and then i will give my thoughts on a few of these plays. have a really nice writeup on notre dame this week.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
added my strong leans and talk me off leans.
eliminated two of the talk me offs today but included them since they existed.
byu -- basically eliminated out of respect for some differing opinions and the reasoning those differing opinions provided me. still leaned byu a tad after that but not nearly as much as heading into my sunday roundtable talks. Then the line moved heavily taking in lots of byu money so i lost value as well. usually when i disagree with the group i discuss football with sunday , they are right and i am wrong .. atleast when i lay off. when i actually play opposite i dont do bad at all. So i think i am doing a good job of analyzing information from thsoe discussions.
washington - Was a game heavy on my radar when lvsc released it at +10 but the books corrected it and what i really wanted never materialized. this line tells me that washington is probably a good play as they are enticing ucla money to the table. i need the line though.
eliminated two of the talk me offs today but included them since they existed.
byu -- basically eliminated out of respect for some differing opinions and the reasoning those differing opinions provided me. still leaned byu a tad after that but not nearly as much as heading into my sunday roundtable talks. Then the line moved heavily taking in lots of byu money so i lost value as well. usually when i disagree with the group i discuss football with sunday , they are right and i am wrong .. atleast when i lay off. when i actually play opposite i dont do bad at all. So i think i am doing a good job of analyzing information from thsoe discussions.
washington - Was a game heavy on my radar when lvsc released it at +10 but the books corrected it and what i really wanted never materialized. this line tells me that washington is probably a good play as they are enticing ucla money to the table. i need the line though.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
in regards to a game where iowa has not shown up..... i dont consider that they didnt show up .. just a big rivalry game .... i guess they played poorly but i dont think it was from being flat. point taken though.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yeah tunasunday said a lot about this game and i think he is spot on.
one team regressed year over year and the other is improving every week....buying into obrien.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think lee is getting deserved criticism but i also think he gets class relief this week and a much better working running game. kid is young and will get better and better. expecting him to be as good as their recent seniors is a bit much to ask.
dr kyle needs to lay on a couch and get some heavy pscyche work done from a licensed professional.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Spectacular post .. do NOT be a stranger to my threads sir.
pags and BC are good company no doubt.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Maryland +3 -- This is a game where I really feel I am getting phenomenal value. And it makes me pose several questions that I think prove that it is value. What would this line be at unc ? The line of unc -3 at Maryland makes me think it’s roughly a 10 point spread at unc. Wow. That can’t be right. And what would the line be if tate was playing ?? Yates ?? This line implies a td road favorite to a good home team in Maryland and a 2 td favorite at home with those two guys against maryland. I don’t see it. So right off the bat I feel like I have significant line value.
So lets look at these two clubs and when I do I see two very similar teams and since they have played similar schedules in my opinion the stats will show the way.
Maryland averages roughly 4.6 yards per carry and 147 yards rushing per game.
North Carolina defense gives up an average of roughly 3.8 yards per carry at 137 a game.
North carolina averages roughly 3.7 yards per carry and 132 yards rushing per game
Maryland defense gives up an average of roughly 4.0 yards per carry and 152 yards per game.
So I see similar expected success rates for both teams in this game. The production of the running games should be somewhat of a wash,
Maryland averages 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 204 yards per game through the air
North Carolina defense gives up 5.9 per pass attempt and 212 yards per game through the air
North carolina averages 7.9 per pass attempt and 196 yards per game though the air
Maryland defense gives up an average of 6.5 per pass attempt and 217 yards per game through the air.
So again … I think I see similar average success rates from each teams passing game against similar competition.
I like both coaches and while I think davis doesn’t get enough credit for his game day coaching because he is regarded so highly as a recruiter , I do think you have to give friedgen an edge in preparation during the week and game day coaching. I don’t think any distractions concerning davis and the Tennessee job opening come into play here one way or the other.. So slightest of edges to the terps in coaching for this game imo. The terps did have two extra days of rest and preparation coming into this game.
The thing to note about the stats and averages listed above is that Maryland has played significantly better at home than on the road and the same holds true for north carolina. Terps are at home here.
Definitive value in Maryland side of this game imo in regards to the line and find it highly unlikely that they get blown out at home. Definitely going to be in the scenario of having a chance in the fourth quarter to win this game.
Similar teams but with similar home/road dichotomy in performance and I get the home team and a fg … I’ll take it.
So lets look at these two clubs and when I do I see two very similar teams and since they have played similar schedules in my opinion the stats will show the way.
Maryland averages roughly 4.6 yards per carry and 147 yards rushing per game.
North Carolina defense gives up an average of roughly 3.8 yards per carry at 137 a game.
North carolina averages roughly 3.7 yards per carry and 132 yards rushing per game
Maryland defense gives up an average of roughly 4.0 yards per carry and 152 yards per game.
So I see similar expected success rates for both teams in this game. The production of the running games should be somewhat of a wash,
Maryland averages 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 204 yards per game through the air
North Carolina defense gives up 5.9 per pass attempt and 212 yards per game through the air
North carolina averages 7.9 per pass attempt and 196 yards per game though the air
Maryland defense gives up an average of 6.5 per pass attempt and 217 yards per game through the air.
So again … I think I see similar average success rates from each teams passing game against similar competition.
I like both coaches and while I think davis doesn’t get enough credit for his game day coaching because he is regarded so highly as a recruiter , I do think you have to give friedgen an edge in preparation during the week and game day coaching. I don’t think any distractions concerning davis and the Tennessee job opening come into play here one way or the other.. So slightest of edges to the terps in coaching for this game imo. The terps did have two extra days of rest and preparation coming into this game.
The thing to note about the stats and averages listed above is that Maryland has played significantly better at home than on the road and the same holds true for north carolina. Terps are at home here.
Definitive value in Maryland side of this game imo in regards to the line and find it highly unlikely that they get blown out at home. Definitely going to be in the scenario of having a chance in the fourth quarter to win this game.
Similar teams but with similar home/road dichotomy in performance and I get the home team and a fg … I’ll take it.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
As I tend to agree that the numbers for both offense and defense measure to be the same. What might give NC value are the hidden yards. Returns (both punt and kick) Turnover Ratio (return yards per INT). NC has really benefited this year from forcing errors by their opposition. I find it hard to cap, this type of informaion. NC has played this year very similar to UCONN from last year. That is how I have read them at least.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ucf +7.5 -- Not always easy to put money behind bad football teams but atleast they are playing a bad football team. Tehre are a few things I really like about this game.
I really feel that ucf has one of the best defenses in the entire cusa. In fact only Tulsa allows less yards per game on the ground than ucf and that has a lot to do with teams passing trying to keep up with that Tulsa offense. Ucf gives up just 3.32 yards per carry and 123 yards per game on the ground. Very significant in my opinion because of what marshall has as weapons offensively. The herd average 4.16 yards per carry and 144 yards per game on the ground. No way they have that kind of success vs. ucf as marshall has played some less than stellar rush defenses at times this year. Marshall has to rely on the run because qb mark Cann struggles with both decision making and accuracy. So I can see some interception possibilities for the ucf defense if marshall has to operate behind the chains more than their average game this year. Marshall simply struggles to score , averaging 20.8 per game and that gets a lot worse if you remove fcs Illinois st where they put up 35. Ucf is giving up 26.6 per game but have played tough games all year long facing miami florida , south florida , Tulsa , boston college … even their conference games to date have been against some of the better cusa offenses in utep , Tulsa and southern miss. Si would certainly expect ucf to keep marshall well out of the thirties and more likely in the low twenties… and a decent shot at keeping them under 20. Obviously the concern is with the anemic offensive output from ucf and there is not much reason to think they go off on marshall here either. Reports concerning the plancher death in the offseason were released this week and I look for the the team and oleary to play inspired ball this week. I look for a competitive game thoughout and would not be shocked at all to see a straight up win.
Key will be ucf holding marhsall to fg attempts where they have struggled converting all year.
Tight low scoring game makes me want the 7.5
Hold my nose and back a bad team.
I really feel that ucf has one of the best defenses in the entire cusa. In fact only Tulsa allows less yards per game on the ground than ucf and that has a lot to do with teams passing trying to keep up with that Tulsa offense. Ucf gives up just 3.32 yards per carry and 123 yards per game on the ground. Very significant in my opinion because of what marshall has as weapons offensively. The herd average 4.16 yards per carry and 144 yards per game on the ground. No way they have that kind of success vs. ucf as marshall has played some less than stellar rush defenses at times this year. Marshall has to rely on the run because qb mark Cann struggles with both decision making and accuracy. So I can see some interception possibilities for the ucf defense if marshall has to operate behind the chains more than their average game this year. Marshall simply struggles to score , averaging 20.8 per game and that gets a lot worse if you remove fcs Illinois st where they put up 35. Ucf is giving up 26.6 per game but have played tough games all year long facing miami florida , south florida , Tulsa , boston college … even their conference games to date have been against some of the better cusa offenses in utep , Tulsa and southern miss. Si would certainly expect ucf to keep marshall well out of the thirties and more likely in the low twenties… and a decent shot at keeping them under 20. Obviously the concern is with the anemic offensive output from ucf and there is not much reason to think they go off on marshall here either. Reports concerning the plancher death in the offseason were released this week and I look for the the team and oleary to play inspired ball this week. I look for a competitive game thoughout and would not be shocked at all to see a straight up win.
Key will be ucf holding marhsall to fg attempts where they have struggled converting all year.
Tight low scoring game makes me want the 7.5
Hold my nose and back a bad team.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
hmmm i dont think i would go that far .. uconn last year was one of the luckiest seasons in the history of college football. north carolina is actually a quality club.
yes unc has benefitted from turnovers ( brilliant gameplan vs rutgers by davis ) and some blocked kicks as well. I agree they do have an advantage in the return game part of special teams but maryland has one of the better punters in the nation and unc not so much.... so that might be mitigated as long as he doesnt outkick the coverage. trading punts will be scary from the big play perspective ... but without the big play the terps should win a punt trade.
Also offensively i like heyward-bey as a big play guy over anything that unc brings with tate gone.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Notre Dame -3 This is a game where I initially leaned to the home dog , option style ( great underdog style ) navy midshipmen when the lines came out on Sunday. I did like navy’s rush offense vs. the notre dmae rush defense a little bit. But it was also a game that I had not capped to conclusion at the time and avoided betting until such a time as I had. After doing that I came to a clear decision that notre dame is the side. Very rarely will I flip flop from an initial lean to play the other side but let me give my reasoning on this.
Situation --I will break down several factors involved with this situational spot that heavily favors the irish.
--revenge/history combo -- Sometimes I think the revenge angle can get overplayed but I really think it applies in full force here. The first reason is the number of returning players for notre dame who suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in team history to navy in overtime last year. Navy beat notre dame for the first time in 44 years last year. It was a triple overtime game. Granted that game was played in south bend and this game is on the road for the irish but we are looking at a notre dame team head and shoulders above last eyars version and a navy team that I consider a lot less than what they were last year. I just can’t imagine that revenge does not play a role here in favor of the irish. Also looking at recent history in this matchup , notre dame never fails to score on navy in up years or down years. Last years team averaged 15.6 first downs per game and 13.9 points per game vs. teams not named navy. They had 27 first downs and 44 points last year. Granted it went to 3ot but you get the idea. History points to a lot of offensive success for the irish
--off of a shutout -- This is a good notre dame offense. Not great by any stretch but definitely a good one .. And has performed well against the lesser defenses the likes of which navy sports. Navy is the worst defense that this team has faced since the season opener. Other than a game AT Washington. The last two games have been against good , solid defenses of boston college and Pittsburgh. Class relief …… and they are coming off getting shutout at boston college. I love good offenses off of shutouts or terrible performances unless I think it is a coming trend rather than a an anomaly. That definitely applies here. The offense has heard a lot about the mistakes they made last week against their catholic brethren and should be focused to finish off drives here.
Weiss -- hot seat ?? Yeah not really but the rumblings have to make him inspired to get a good week of practice in this week and shake off the demons of being the guy who actually lost to navy
Navy is sneaky bad --I admire a team that finds ways to win and be competitive and navy has done that but lets not kid ourselves …. This team has caught every break this season imaginable. Lets look over their schedule.
*They beat towson --nice job.
*They lose at ball st by 12 … out gained and out first downed by ball st
*They lose at duke by 10 --- out gained and out first downed by duke
*They beat Rutgers by 2 points -- Rutgers had a first down edge and navy had a yardage edge. Terrible gameplan by schiano in this one but with the lead 14-6 just before halftime Rutgers was going into the end zone but fumbled the ball at the navy four yard line and navy escaped. Plus 2 in turnovers for navy. I would bet Rutgers at navy right now at anything under a td. This was also the bad Rutgers team from earlier in the year and not the Rutgers playing quality football right now.
*they beat wake forest by 7 -- they benefited from an uncharacteristic 6 turnovers by wake forest. Despite getting 6 turnovers they were still out first downed in the game. Wake is not what we thought they were when the year started either. Very lucky win in my opinion … as was the Rutgers win … it is a theme that will continue.
*navy beat air force by 6 -- they were out first downed 20-13 and out gained 411 - 244 in the game. They blocked two punts for td. Yeah.
*they lost by 21 to Pittsburgh -- the score wasn’t even that close. Out first downed 22 - 12 and out gained 499 - 251. Pitt passed at will and ran at will on the navy defense and just had the dominant athletes that navy can’t match up with.
*navy beat smu 34-7 -- it wasn’t even that close . Navy held smu to negative yards rushing while rushing for over 400 themselves. Impressive win but a lesser opponent.
*navy beat temple 33-27 in overtime -- temple outplayed navy badly for a majority of this game and recovered a fumble by temple while temple was running out the clock and returned it for a td with 37 seconds left , capping a 20 point fourth quarter for navy. With all the momentum navy won in overtime. Fluke win without question.
Sneaky bad folks.
home field advantage -- not a true home field edge for navy here as the game is played in Baltimore Maryland in the ravens stadium. Now , they will have plenty of navy midshipmen in the stands cheering them on and I am sure enough tickets were sold to make this worthwhile but it is NOT a true home game and that has to be considered here.
Bowl eligibility -- We get a TRIPLE whammy of good situation here in regards to bowl eligibility in this game …. 1. Notre dame is 5-4 . The two remaining games after navy are home to Syracuse and at usc. The irish cannot beat usc . So a loss here would put an incredible amount of pressure on the team to win at home vs. the cuse to become bowl eligible. The irish need this win, 2. Navy is already bowl eligible …… and now for the triple whammy part ,….. 3. Not only is navy bowl eligible but they have already accepted their bowl bid !!! The midshipmen will be playing in the eaglebank bowl to be played at rfk stadium on December the 20<SUP>th</SUP>. In other words , they have literally nothing of consequence to play for at this point. Their future has been decided. Now you have to note two things with navy ….. That they are a service academy and usually give a good effort every single week and also that they are playing notre dame so it’s not like there is no motivation for them …. But when looking at the bowl implications involved in this game it creates a clear edge for notre dame in my opinion.
Alright I think you see why I love the situation for notre dame … hell it’s impossible to NOT like the spot for the irish. So any navy love has to come from a matchup standpoint and there are some things that I believe navy can do offensively vs. the irish which is why I leaned that way initially anyway.
- the weakness of the irish defense is their run stopping. Obviously facing a team that pounds you over and over and over again with the run may present some problems for the irish defense. Navy will get some yards and some points in this game most likely. Surprisingly , navy is averaging just 18 first downs per game though and have not exactly played the greatest defenses in the world. I look for them to make some plays , maybe get 20-23 points in this one.
--the weakness of the navy defense is everything but especially the pass defense. They are one of the worst in the entire nation at defending the pass and face a notre dame team that has lots of speed and skill on the outside. Clausen is coming off a bad game ( mechanics ? Or wet ball ? Or bc defense ? Or clausen being clausen ? ) but I would expect a major rebound here. Notre dame should have more success running here than they have had vs. most of their opponents this year. Again we are looking at a class drop for notre dame. So they will be able to run more effectively than in most games and that should make the passing attack all the better.
Notre dame will have the speed and size edges all over the field and that is just tough for navy to compete with here imo.
Notre dame went into unc and outplayed them .. So it is not a hard leap of faith to think they can go into Baltimore and take down the midshipmen.
Concerns
-sometimes it is hard to tell when a team just ahs a really bad game and when some trouble might be brewing and the irish played a terrible game against bc.
-weather -- not much of a concern because the option attack has some major problems in rainy weather given the number of exchanges they make a game but given what I saw clausen doing with a wet ball ( overthrow after overthrow at boston college ) last week , it has to be a concern.
-coaching
-penalties --navy does not commit them. Least penalized team in cfb
Just hard to not like a possibly underrated notre dame team here to an overrated navy squad. Motivational edges all over the place for notre dame , situational edges all over the place for notre dame , speed edges all over the place for notre dame ,. Am majority of matchup edges schematically ( though there are some edges scheme wise for navy offense vs. notre dame defense ) for notre dame ……. Edge for navy at head coach.
I just had to lay it.
Situation --I will break down several factors involved with this situational spot that heavily favors the irish.
--revenge/history combo -- Sometimes I think the revenge angle can get overplayed but I really think it applies in full force here. The first reason is the number of returning players for notre dame who suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in team history to navy in overtime last year. Navy beat notre dame for the first time in 44 years last year. It was a triple overtime game. Granted that game was played in south bend and this game is on the road for the irish but we are looking at a notre dame team head and shoulders above last eyars version and a navy team that I consider a lot less than what they were last year. I just can’t imagine that revenge does not play a role here in favor of the irish. Also looking at recent history in this matchup , notre dame never fails to score on navy in up years or down years. Last years team averaged 15.6 first downs per game and 13.9 points per game vs. teams not named navy. They had 27 first downs and 44 points last year. Granted it went to 3ot but you get the idea. History points to a lot of offensive success for the irish
--off of a shutout -- This is a good notre dame offense. Not great by any stretch but definitely a good one .. And has performed well against the lesser defenses the likes of which navy sports. Navy is the worst defense that this team has faced since the season opener. Other than a game AT Washington. The last two games have been against good , solid defenses of boston college and Pittsburgh. Class relief …… and they are coming off getting shutout at boston college. I love good offenses off of shutouts or terrible performances unless I think it is a coming trend rather than a an anomaly. That definitely applies here. The offense has heard a lot about the mistakes they made last week against their catholic brethren and should be focused to finish off drives here.
Weiss -- hot seat ?? Yeah not really but the rumblings have to make him inspired to get a good week of practice in this week and shake off the demons of being the guy who actually lost to navy
Navy is sneaky bad --I admire a team that finds ways to win and be competitive and navy has done that but lets not kid ourselves …. This team has caught every break this season imaginable. Lets look over their schedule.
*They beat towson --nice job.
*They lose at ball st by 12 … out gained and out first downed by ball st
*They lose at duke by 10 --- out gained and out first downed by duke
*They beat Rutgers by 2 points -- Rutgers had a first down edge and navy had a yardage edge. Terrible gameplan by schiano in this one but with the lead 14-6 just before halftime Rutgers was going into the end zone but fumbled the ball at the navy four yard line and navy escaped. Plus 2 in turnovers for navy. I would bet Rutgers at navy right now at anything under a td. This was also the bad Rutgers team from earlier in the year and not the Rutgers playing quality football right now.
*they beat wake forest by 7 -- they benefited from an uncharacteristic 6 turnovers by wake forest. Despite getting 6 turnovers they were still out first downed in the game. Wake is not what we thought they were when the year started either. Very lucky win in my opinion … as was the Rutgers win … it is a theme that will continue.
*navy beat air force by 6 -- they were out first downed 20-13 and out gained 411 - 244 in the game. They blocked two punts for td. Yeah.
*they lost by 21 to Pittsburgh -- the score wasn’t even that close. Out first downed 22 - 12 and out gained 499 - 251. Pitt passed at will and ran at will on the navy defense and just had the dominant athletes that navy can’t match up with.
*navy beat smu 34-7 -- it wasn’t even that close . Navy held smu to negative yards rushing while rushing for over 400 themselves. Impressive win but a lesser opponent.
*navy beat temple 33-27 in overtime -- temple outplayed navy badly for a majority of this game and recovered a fumble by temple while temple was running out the clock and returned it for a td with 37 seconds left , capping a 20 point fourth quarter for navy. With all the momentum navy won in overtime. Fluke win without question.
Sneaky bad folks.
home field advantage -- not a true home field edge for navy here as the game is played in Baltimore Maryland in the ravens stadium. Now , they will have plenty of navy midshipmen in the stands cheering them on and I am sure enough tickets were sold to make this worthwhile but it is NOT a true home game and that has to be considered here.
Bowl eligibility -- We get a TRIPLE whammy of good situation here in regards to bowl eligibility in this game …. 1. Notre dame is 5-4 . The two remaining games after navy are home to Syracuse and at usc. The irish cannot beat usc . So a loss here would put an incredible amount of pressure on the team to win at home vs. the cuse to become bowl eligible. The irish need this win, 2. Navy is already bowl eligible …… and now for the triple whammy part ,….. 3. Not only is navy bowl eligible but they have already accepted their bowl bid !!! The midshipmen will be playing in the eaglebank bowl to be played at rfk stadium on December the 20<SUP>th</SUP>. In other words , they have literally nothing of consequence to play for at this point. Their future has been decided. Now you have to note two things with navy ….. That they are a service academy and usually give a good effort every single week and also that they are playing notre dame so it’s not like there is no motivation for them …. But when looking at the bowl implications involved in this game it creates a clear edge for notre dame in my opinion.
Alright I think you see why I love the situation for notre dame … hell it’s impossible to NOT like the spot for the irish. So any navy love has to come from a matchup standpoint and there are some things that I believe navy can do offensively vs. the irish which is why I leaned that way initially anyway.
- the weakness of the irish defense is their run stopping. Obviously facing a team that pounds you over and over and over again with the run may present some problems for the irish defense. Navy will get some yards and some points in this game most likely. Surprisingly , navy is averaging just 18 first downs per game though and have not exactly played the greatest defenses in the world. I look for them to make some plays , maybe get 20-23 points in this one.
--the weakness of the navy defense is everything but especially the pass defense. They are one of the worst in the entire nation at defending the pass and face a notre dame team that has lots of speed and skill on the outside. Clausen is coming off a bad game ( mechanics ? Or wet ball ? Or bc defense ? Or clausen being clausen ? ) but I would expect a major rebound here. Notre dame should have more success running here than they have had vs. most of their opponents this year. Again we are looking at a class drop for notre dame. So they will be able to run more effectively than in most games and that should make the passing attack all the better.
Notre dame will have the speed and size edges all over the field and that is just tough for navy to compete with here imo.
Notre dame went into unc and outplayed them .. So it is not a hard leap of faith to think they can go into Baltimore and take down the midshipmen.
Concerns
-sometimes it is hard to tell when a team just ahs a really bad game and when some trouble might be brewing and the irish played a terrible game against bc.
-weather -- not much of a concern because the option attack has some major problems in rainy weather given the number of exchanges they make a game but given what I saw clausen doing with a wet ball ( overthrow after overthrow at boston college ) last week , it has to be a concern.
-coaching
-penalties --navy does not commit them. Least penalized team in cfb
Just hard to not like a possibly underrated notre dame team here to an overrated navy squad. Motivational edges all over the place for notre dame , situational edges all over the place for notre dame , speed edges all over the place for notre dame ,. Am majority of matchup edges schematically ( though there are some edges scheme wise for navy offense vs. notre dame defense ) for notre dame ……. Edge for navy at head coach.
I just had to lay it.
tunasunday
Pretty much a regular
Dead on assessment of UNC. I follow this team closely--line them up against a QB with the propensity to turn the ball over, like Crane for BC or Claussen for ND, and this team will jump all over bad QB reads for turnovers.
I had a detailed post last week in Vanzack's UNC/GT thread, but as you say Books the box score does not do this team justice. They have been out first-downed by 25% or so this year, yet they are 7-2 and quite possibly could, arguably should, be 9-0. Their special teams return units and coverage units are excellent and they make the big play consistently on both sides of the ball.
Carolina has one weak link in their back seven--#23 Hemby at corner. Usually Free Safety Deunta Williams has to roll coverage to Hemby's side because he can't handle a good receiver one-on-one or in his zone. If Fridge can somehow keep Williams in the middle of the field (deep posts to Heyward-Bey?) and get Hemby in isolation, Maryland will find plenty of success.
My read on this game with Maryland is much like my read on the Notre Dame/Navy game that Kyle and Pags have debated in RJ's thread--
if Turner protects the ball, UMd will prevail. I feel the same about Claussen against the Naval Academy, I just have less faith in Claussen than I do Turner.
tunasunday
Pretty much a regular
VK--for my money Hakeem Nicks is a better receiver than Tate. I haven't seen him contained all year, with or without Tate on the other side.
The problem is Shoop gets too cute in his play calling and forgets to get Hicks the ball.
The problem is Shoop gets too cute in his play calling and forgets to get Hicks the ball.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
While i am a huge believer in nicks too ... tate was a special special player.
my concern with the loss of tate isn't really a knock on the other receivers for the heels ... it is merely in assessing the line value in the game. Take away the number 1 qb and number 1 offensive weapon ( clearly tate was focal point of the offense ) and they are still laying 3 on the road to a quality conference opponent. Wasn't a knock in nicks at all. kid can definitely play.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
My sole purpose is to say that NC's offense has not had to sustain 80 and 90 yard drives. They have benefited from bad play of their opposition. You may call it lucky. I call it good coaching (being in the right spot at the right time). NC may not have a great defensive backfield, but neither does VT. Aside the bubble screen for TD, Heyward-Bey was kept at bay. He is an exceptionable talent, and it is a shame that MD does not have more playmakers like him.
You are probably correct in the fact that if Turner plays mistake free, MD will prevail. But no team has been able to play error free against NC this year.
If I could predict turnovers, I would be a rich man as well. If only.
Expect 2 INTs and 1 pick six each time LSU starts Jarrett Lee
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
trying to get thoughts out there on each play i made
texas --use the whole thread as a writeup lol .. use sportsnut posts as my concerns.
ncstate -- use tuna post as a writeup , not going to add much more
nd -- made it
maryland --made it
ucf -- made it
that leaves oregon which i will give reasoning on later in the week
totals later in the day with blurbs.
texas --use the whole thread as a writeup lol .. use sportsnut posts as my concerns.
ncstate -- use tuna post as a writeup , not going to add much more
nd -- made it
maryland --made it
ucf -- made it
that leaves oregon which i will give reasoning on later in the week
totals later in the day with blurbs.
kyle,
agree with your analysis of the North Carolina vs. Maryland game...
tunasunday,
the distraction probably won't affect Davis himself or maybe even his coaching staff, but you know the players have to be talking about it in their dorm rooms with eachother so yes it could help us a bit...
agree with your analysis of the North Carolina vs. Maryland game...
tunasunday,
the distraction probably won't affect Davis himself or maybe even his coaching staff, but you know the players have to be talking about it in their dorm rooms with eachother so yes it could help us a bit...
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