2008 cfb -- time to post my week 12 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The mere fact that i know i won't be playing iowa in this game means there might be some value in purdue. After what i saw last week against michigan state , i can't put a penny of my money backing tiller.
who is going to qb ?? painter ? siller ?? a combo of both ???
191 yards of offense against michigan st and most of that came at the end of the game down 21-0.
No interest in that game for me. I won't lay that number in a bad situational spot for iowa but have little intereest in backing purdue , especially since i haven't really seen the game this year where iowa completely forgot to show up.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
I can't believe this line is going down. It falls any more and I might have to buy up some more.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
A good matchup for texas and the best situational spot for them in a month ... have to go all the way back to oklahoma game to find a spot this good.
agree with you.
Tejas dline vs kansas oline is going to be fun for us to watch as texas backers. doubt reesing lasts the game to be honest. This isn't last years version and mangino ruffled some feathers with his whinefests the last few years.
Kansas pass defense struggles when they are able to stop the run ,.... how bad does this get when they can't do that either ?
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Iowa St. maybe?
Would be suprised if this card interests me until later in the week. What a bunch of shit games .
NIU maybe during the week and maybe fade Ball State . Depending on who is at QB fade VaTech. Akron possibly .
The Ville maybe as home pups but pretty down on them.
Maryland
Cuse 1st Half
ND probably a big play on this .
Penn State
Minnesota
Michigan
Vandy
So Miss
Air Force(and Under ??)
South Carolina
Iowa State
Oregon State
ULL probaly a big play on this
UCF
Idaho
USF
ILL
FSU
Troy
SDST 1st Half
ASU
Just 1st glance:36_11_6::cheers:
NIU maybe during the week and maybe fade Ball State . Depending on who is at QB fade VaTech. Akron possibly .
The Ville maybe as home pups but pretty down on them.
Maryland
Cuse 1st Half
ND probably a big play on this .
Penn State
Minnesota
Michigan
Vandy
So Miss
Air Force(and Under ??)
South Carolina
Iowa State
Oregon State
ULL probaly a big play on this
UCF
Idaho
USF
ILL
FSU
Troy
SDST 1st Half
ASU
Just 1st glance:36_11_6::cheers:
Texas looked juicy but their schedule just worries me . They havent had an easy game in quite awhile. It has to rake its toll . Baylor didnt present much of challenge but it was just a go through the motions and man handle outing either . Early on TT was like -1 @ KU and now you hve lay 2 TDs with Texas. Feel like the value has been sucked out of this big time . Anything above -8 just seems way to high IMO. Kansas was only +20 @ Oklahoma and now they are 2 TDs at home . Probably would expect KU to be +17 @ Texas not +14 at home....
I just think they have had such a rough situation its tough for them to play at peak level. Line is just way off IMO. They arent as good as that little run IMO. They caught the breaks vs OU , Missouri is so overrated , Okie State almost came back on them and they lost @ Tech. Before that stretch when they played @ CU they were just -12 and won 38-14 . McCoy had 2 picks @ CU , 1 @ tech and another 2 this week vsBaylor. Troubling IMO especially with the lack of a run game .
just to big a number IMO. Especially since texas can be thrown on . TT crushed Kansas but the Longhorn offense just is not as explosive as Techs or relentless.
:cheers:
KU also has wont @ nebraska since 1968 . They led by 3 late 3rd Q and trailed by 3 with 10 to play . So they were hanging around and I was on Nebraska .
Probably better to play Texas 1st Half as they seem to coast ...
KU just fell apart and Tech poured it on.
Game was 14-14 after the 1st Quarter .
Punt , 79 yd TD drive , 80 Yd Drive
Punt , fumble at midfield on 1st down after picking up 30 yds , next possession 1st and 20 at the KU 20 2:15 before half on 2nd and 4 pick up 3 yds bet get a holding penalty making is 2nd and 17 instead of 3rd and 1
3rd Q was KU running 5 plays as Reesing was picked 3x by the same player !(McBath)
4th Q on 1st and 10 at th KU 40 they get a 15 yd penalty and cant convert the 1st and 25 , score a TD on an 80 yd drive......
So they punted twice all game and just self destructed as Tech reeled off 49 straight pts . 2 punts , 3 Ints , FUmble , and 2 drives killed by penalties that resulted in a punt and TOD plus 3 TD drives of 70-80 yds.....
Game wasnt as bad as the scoreboard ..IMO
O
O-State
Guest
Texas has showed up EVERY game this year with focus and full concentration. You can look at this two ways. That means it's ingrained in this team and unlike Maryland and some of these bipolar psycho's on meds, you can count on Texas every week. Seems to me to be a lot of young guys that are very coachable and don't know any better but to go out and keep give max effort to get better.....and Muschamp and company are riding their asses every week. Just a bunch of young hungry guys that have chemistry on that club. Actually I think senior laden teams can get complacent, old hat for them blowing ppl out.
YOu can also look at this and say Texas is due for a letdown, they've been dominating these weaker foes and psychology they've seen Kansas get handled by some teams Texas has handled.
-----I don't have as much a problem laying this with Texas as I tend to think they will show up. Teams emotionally you can gauge by their resume IMO. Oklahoma shows up every week. A team like Missouri is one that was consistent and then has fallen off but I think the national title vanishing effected them.
Texas also has national championship and style points to gain here. Young team that is anxious and chomping at the bit to suit up and improve every week I think they show up.
----IF so, Texas rolls IMO. This Kansas OL especially is outclassed by a mile and a half. This Kansas team in general is outclassed in talent and Kansas has proven this year they are quite a few notches below last years club.
IMO alot of ppl are saying this.......Look at Bama almost lose, look at Iowa, look at Texas losing, remember last year???? November baby, home and and underdog
This is when shit hits the fan let's take every home dog on the board vs. a top opponent and we'll cash.
YOu can also look at this and say Texas is due for a letdown, they've been dominating these weaker foes and psychology they've seen Kansas get handled by some teams Texas has handled.
-----I don't have as much a problem laying this with Texas as I tend to think they will show up. Teams emotionally you can gauge by their resume IMO. Oklahoma shows up every week. A team like Missouri is one that was consistent and then has fallen off but I think the national title vanishing effected them.
Texas also has national championship and style points to gain here. Young team that is anxious and chomping at the bit to suit up and improve every week I think they show up.
----IF so, Texas rolls IMO. This Kansas OL especially is outclassed by a mile and a half. This Kansas team in general is outclassed in talent and Kansas has proven this year they are quite a few notches below last years club.
IMO alot of ppl are saying this.......Look at Bama almost lose, look at Iowa, look at Texas losing, remember last year???? November baby, home and and underdog
This is when shit hits the fan let's take every home dog on the board vs. a top opponent and we'll cash.
O
O-State
Guest
BTW what Mangino did Last Year was sooooooo impressive. IMO this season does not make that season a fluke. Not a ton of losses from that team and that is what is surprising. Talib, the Left tackle, DT, wr, couple other players missing and that's it. You can tell their are alot of "kansas" quality athletes on this team....just a major difference in talent.
I really think last year's Kansas club was a damn fine team and would be in the discussion with Okie State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas this year. Unfortunately the light schedule has alot of naysayers....beat a fine fine VT team though in the Orange.
Every year there are these under the radar teams that come out of nowhere. Arizona this year. Stoops club lost the majority of their defensive starters to graduation, especially dline as well. Just weird.....chemistry goes a long ways.
Lot of money can be made if you find the under the radar teams and also the Ball State's and Penn State's early in the year before anybody else does.
What I noticed is both Arizona and Kansas got off to humungous margin of victories in non-conference. Like 60, 70-10 type games. Even vs. weak teams non-conference that is very rare.
I really think last year's Kansas club was a damn fine team and would be in the discussion with Okie State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas this year. Unfortunately the light schedule has alot of naysayers....beat a fine fine VT team though in the Orange.
Every year there are these under the radar teams that come out of nowhere. Arizona this year. Stoops club lost the majority of their defensive starters to graduation, especially dline as well. Just weird.....chemistry goes a long ways.
Lot of money can be made if you find the under the radar teams and also the Ball State's and Penn State's early in the year before anybody else does.
What I noticed is both Arizona and Kansas got off to humungous margin of victories in non-conference. Like 60, 70-10 type games. Even vs. weak teams non-conference that is very rare.
For me the line is just to big . Clearly Texas is a much better team but again its about situation and home field IMO. Texas has scored 33 and 38 in true conference road games and 45 in the Big River Shootout . They coasted once they got up comfortably vs Baylor which again was tied late 2nd Q until Griffin threw a pick 6 and the young Baylors unraveled. Texas walked into the game with OU very underrated and they showed alot that day. Still though IMO the Texas offense is not in the same league as Oklahoma's and TTech . Those teams show up every week cause they seriously outclass the opposition every week. Texas just doesnt on offense. OU and TT your basically know will put up 50+ every week while texas is more like 42 a week. So the fact TT scored 63 @ KU is irrevelant because Texas isnt the same type of offense its very good but likely to be in the 38-45 pt range IM0. Texas is 0-3 ATS the spread past 3 as well.
I just see this game being closer to -8 then -14. If Texas is -14 then they would be -23 hosting KU? Which was bigger then the number @ OU which the Sooners despite losing are still much stronger IMO . KU will score IMO and that will make 2 TDs tough IMO.....:cheers:
I just see this game being closer to -8 then -14. If Texas is -14 then they would be -23 hosting KU? Which was bigger then the number @ OU which the Sooners despite losing are still much stronger IMO . KU will score IMO and that will make 2 TDs tough IMO.....:cheers:
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
nebraska let them stay in this game with turnovers.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
23 at home would be about right. This KU team is not good at all. They were completely overrated this year and are still living off of last year's reputation. They're probably about even with Baylor this year which would probably rank them about 45-50 in the country.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
If you watched the game, you should know that Texas was in cruise control that game due to injuries.
I firmly believe that they did not even give Colt the green light to run until the 3Q and then they put Chiles and company in when the game was safe and put away. Colt had a number of plays where he could have scrambled for 5-15 yds but didn't--most likely because the coaches want to keep him healthy for KU and Aggy and he was banged up too after that 4 game stretch.
2 TDs in this game should be low. I see a 20+ win.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Wouldn't go as far as to call them equal to Baylor. They just played you guys equal to Baylor.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The line adjustment is that kansas has been exposed from those two games at oklahoma and home to tech .. as well as at nebraska. The highest quality win for jayhawks is colorado ?? or kansas state ? So while i agree the line appears to have less value for texas the reason is that now the linesmakers realize what kansas really is.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yup ... the fear of losing out to ou in bcs after beating their ass like a drum has to make them want to run it up if possible.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i wouldn't be surprised if ressing doesn't finish the game. Ay ear ago it was reesing and co. .......now it's mostly just reesing.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i look at the schedule and say "finally a great spot for texas".
they did have a tough stretch of games but the home game with baylor let them rest a bit and they have a bye week prior to the tamu game to end the year so i think they should be energized and focused here ... best spot since the oklahoma game ... and i watched every play of the ou game and texas simply outplayed them .. not about catching more breaks. It wasn't as if texas was making td catches off of deflected passes ...... i guess they were +2 in turnovers in that game and had the kickoff return but having watched it , i thought texas looked the better of the two teams that day ... first down edge and yardage edge after a slow start is impressive. They then had terrible spots vs missouri , vs okie st , and at texas tech ( covering the mizz game and not covering the other two ). But despite not playing well almost won at tech anyway.
Takes a lot these days for me to bet on Texas as i am a fan .... and therefore extra careful. Believe it is my first bet on them this year.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
kansas was outplayed even up to the point that they led by 3. Nebraska turnovers kept them in it.
texas has been one of the best SECOND half teams in competitive games. They only coast when they are destroying by more than this spread. Defense int he second half of games for texas has been nothing short of amazing. Very nice halftime adjustments
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Seems like the strangest spot for a letdown all year .... tough stretch of games followed by baylor , followed by a letdown ??
If kansas covers it will be fundamentally and should nto be the result of a lackluster effort from texas.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
loss of talib destroyed the defense .. he covered up a lot of their holes defensively. Said it prior to the year and still believe it is true. vatech would have won the orange bowl with anyone other than frank beamer coaching. worst coached game of my life. i think rj has a link somewhere on this site with a way to watch that game .... terrible. vatech could have ran dive plays the entire game and won.
Not last years team by any stretch
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i get the homefield edge for kansas ... agree there.
But i am not getting the situational aspect you see for the game. Texas rested players vs baylor. The offense has been just fine on the road other than the flat first half vs texas tech. That was their half of flat football at the end of a brutal stretch .. and still they came out and put up 27 second half points on the number one ranked team in the nation right now.
Just disagree in relation to situation. ( poet and don't know it )
The road offense has been just fine. 35-7 lead over colorado in the third quarter. 374 yards 33 points and 27 second half points when faced with a tech offense that held the ball for 36-37 minutes of the game. Production was high given the 23 miutes or so of time of possession and roughly 60-63 plays. Oklahoma was not a true road game but they were productive there as well and i was in attendance when they played utep ( granted utep defense sucks donkey balls dipped in sour milk ).
Look at kansas resume......They have played 3 teams in the top 60 in college football and lost all three. Their wins are fiu , latech , shsu ( without the horn ) , iowa st , colorado , and kansas st ..........
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
guess i should have read everything prior to responding as i go ......
what cubsker said.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i rate them a little higher than baylor. they are also well coached and give great effort most games. Talent disparity is huge though.
more in the #38-#43 range i think
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Exactly ... team was cruising the majority of the game ... hell they deserved a day of rest. The way this team has played i dont see them coming out flat against kansas after a home game to baylor where they took it easy on themselves.
23-27 point win .....16-23 point win if kansas hits the backdoor.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
wow...this must be a crappy card. no leans, and not even a talk-me-off yet. 
with u on texas though, vk. :shake:
with u on texas though, vk. :shake:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
wow...this must be a crappy card. no leans, and not even a talk-me-off yet.
with u on texas though, vk. :shake:
makng a few more plays i am confident on and then will post the others i am looking at into the strong leans and tmo's
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yeah , hate losing weeks .. i like the chances of rebounding with this card and i have a feeling there will be some value with totals this week as well... and hell those have been better for me than sides anyway.
texasfight
Karl Marx sucks balls
A couple things on Texas. The strength of Kansas' defense is found in its 3 linebackers. It really struggles with teams that run a base 4 wide forcing them to go nickel and dime. Tech and Texas run a base 4 wide.
The one thing that worries me about this game is weather. Not the cold, but the wind. They're predicting 20 mile an hour winds.
Texas is a banged up football team right now. They've played the last 3 weeks without their best corner in Chykie Brown, and now they've got injuries on their Dline. Orakpo should be back but now Lamarr Houston is dinged.
Texas better get pressure or Kansas is going to score. Our secondary has been dogshit since Brown has been out. If he would have played against Tech, Texas is still undefeated. I doubt he plays this week.
The one thing that worries me about this game is weather. Not the cold, but the wind. They're predicting 20 mile an hour winds.
Texas is a banged up football team right now. They've played the last 3 weeks without their best corner in Chykie Brown, and now they've got injuries on their Dline. Orakpo should be back but now Lamarr Houston is dinged.
Texas better get pressure or Kansas is going to score. Our secondary has been dogshit since Brown has been out. If he would have played against Tech, Texas is still undefeated. I doubt he plays this week.
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cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
I know, they played us the same as Baylor. That's why I rank them the same as Baylor. I'm not sure I get what you're saying.
Alot to respond so I lump it all into one.
Texas did coast from Baylor I dont think that game had any bearing on anything . Look what OU did @ Baylor MUCH more impressive .
No way in HELL is KU +23 at Texas . Not even close . Oklahoma is still the best team in that conference and while I give Texas the slight nod over TTech the Raider offense is alot better IMO. So Texas is not able to throw the same type beatdowns . They should have been about +17 @ OU and Texas is a good FG cheaper IMO .
As mentioned Texas is extremely banged up and a week's time is not going to do much good for them.
I never said I expect KU to win just the line is inflated . Again for whatever reason Texas offense has some inconsistencies on the road. Whether its a bad 1st Half or just running the clock in the 4th quarter they dont have the no mercy approach of OU and TTech( TT scored 7 straight TDS!) . I still think best case scenario texas scores 45 and I have a feeling its going to be alot lower because the KU offense will do well . I am gonna guess texas gets 35-38 here . Same thing with the texas defense it somehow plays well but always allows pts at the end of the day .
Going to say this game ends 35/38-27-28.
Not in the mood to argue just going on record saying this line is inflated and very confident it is. The problem with Kansas was expectations and I agree with the points made on KU . They have been overvalued all season . They havent won @ NEB in 40 years and open as road chalk explain that ? I understand why they did with the thrashing of KState who is terrible and NEB game @ Oklahoma thats why I played NEB.
Same deal with Texas they look good but when you look at how undervalued they were its understandable that at some point they have to get overvalued . McCoy is banged up and throwing a good amount of INTs of late. The Longhorn defense I think has given up 20+ L5 games or so. Kansas has moved the ball on every team its played . Like I said TT game @ KU was the perfect storm for the Raiders . They came in just like texas vs OU and showed how good they were bit also got every break in that game . Cant expect that to happen again.
As far as situation what I meant is Texas is worn down from that 4 game stretch and 1 game / week isnt going to refresh them . Having to face a talented offense at less then 100% leads me to believe they will not bring an A game( not saying flat but less then perfect) . KU probably disappointed it didnt get the win @ Neb comes home and has a great motivational edge hosting Texas IMO because of what texas has accomplished so far.
What has happened in the past I am firm believer that lines , perception and situation are what helps an outcome occur . So that had to be taken into context. When KU lost it for the most part was unexpected . Now its expected and with a fat line I expect a suprisingly good game from them. Teams like texas have huge edges at home which why there play away has been lackluster because they just are not that type of team . Look at what OU does when it plays a weak team on the road . Texas is only slightily better then Okie State IMO maybe about -4.5 on a neutral field. At Tech in the 2nd Texas had a punt return and what call fluke as they had a 91 yd TD pass . They had only 374 yards of offense and 91 on 1 play . At Colorado they had about 436 yds on 76 plays . Even OU just 438 yds on 70plays an dmost came after Reynolds went down as they accumulated about 150 yds on their last 2 drives of the game .
Kansas is much better then Baylor(take away Griffin and look how terrible they are) , they are better then Nebraska , so they are the next best team in the Big 12 when you get away from the top tier teams after Mizzou who is extremely overrated . Which texas was only -3.5 ta home vs them to show how crazy this conference is. I wouldnt rate Missouri that much higher then Kansas IMO . Look at Texas lines from @ COL to @ TT ...highest ones were -12 @ COL which I would guess KU is about -7 @ COL and after that -11.5 vs Okie State which they didnt cover ....so outside of Baylor this is their 2nd biggest conference line.
On KU +14 and GL to you guys . Thats my story and pretty much one of the few lines I see as really off. :cheers:
Texas did coast from Baylor I dont think that game had any bearing on anything . Look what OU did @ Baylor MUCH more impressive .
No way in HELL is KU +23 at Texas . Not even close . Oklahoma is still the best team in that conference and while I give Texas the slight nod over TTech the Raider offense is alot better IMO. So Texas is not able to throw the same type beatdowns . They should have been about +17 @ OU and Texas is a good FG cheaper IMO .
As mentioned Texas is extremely banged up and a week's time is not going to do much good for them.
I never said I expect KU to win just the line is inflated . Again for whatever reason Texas offense has some inconsistencies on the road. Whether its a bad 1st Half or just running the clock in the 4th quarter they dont have the no mercy approach of OU and TTech( TT scored 7 straight TDS!) . I still think best case scenario texas scores 45 and I have a feeling its going to be alot lower because the KU offense will do well . I am gonna guess texas gets 35-38 here . Same thing with the texas defense it somehow plays well but always allows pts at the end of the day .
Going to say this game ends 35/38-27-28.
Not in the mood to argue just going on record saying this line is inflated and very confident it is. The problem with Kansas was expectations and I agree with the points made on KU . They have been overvalued all season . They havent won @ NEB in 40 years and open as road chalk explain that ? I understand why they did with the thrashing of KState who is terrible and NEB game @ Oklahoma thats why I played NEB.
Same deal with Texas they look good but when you look at how undervalued they were its understandable that at some point they have to get overvalued . McCoy is banged up and throwing a good amount of INTs of late. The Longhorn defense I think has given up 20+ L5 games or so. Kansas has moved the ball on every team its played . Like I said TT game @ KU was the perfect storm for the Raiders . They came in just like texas vs OU and showed how good they were bit also got every break in that game . Cant expect that to happen again.
As far as situation what I meant is Texas is worn down from that 4 game stretch and 1 game / week isnt going to refresh them . Having to face a talented offense at less then 100% leads me to believe they will not bring an A game( not saying flat but less then perfect) . KU probably disappointed it didnt get the win @ Neb comes home and has a great motivational edge hosting Texas IMO because of what texas has accomplished so far.
What has happened in the past I am firm believer that lines , perception and situation are what helps an outcome occur . So that had to be taken into context. When KU lost it for the most part was unexpected . Now its expected and with a fat line I expect a suprisingly good game from them. Teams like texas have huge edges at home which why there play away has been lackluster because they just are not that type of team . Look at what OU does when it plays a weak team on the road . Texas is only slightily better then Okie State IMO maybe about -4.5 on a neutral field. At Tech in the 2nd Texas had a punt return and what call fluke as they had a 91 yd TD pass . They had only 374 yards of offense and 91 on 1 play . At Colorado they had about 436 yds on 76 plays . Even OU just 438 yds on 70plays an dmost came after Reynolds went down as they accumulated about 150 yds on their last 2 drives of the game .
Kansas is much better then Baylor(take away Griffin and look how terrible they are) , they are better then Nebraska , so they are the next best team in the Big 12 when you get away from the top tier teams after Mizzou who is extremely overrated . Which texas was only -3.5 ta home vs them to show how crazy this conference is. I wouldnt rate Missouri that much higher then Kansas IMO . Look at Texas lines from @ COL to @ TT ...highest ones were -12 @ COL which I would guess KU is about -7 @ COL and after that -11.5 vs Okie State which they didnt cover ....so outside of Baylor this is their 2nd biggest conference line.
On KU +14 and GL to you guys . Thats my story and pretty much one of the few lines I see as really off. :cheers:
He claims Jordan Jefferson is not ready to be a full-time starter. Miles did come out at a press conference earlier this week (not post game conf) and say that "maybe I am leaving Lee in there too long when his confidence is obviously shaken." Well, no shit, Sherlock! Boy Genius Les went on to say "when Lee is hitting his targets, he looks great. But sometime his confidence is shaken and he tries to force things." Again, thank you, Captain Obvious! Any QB looks great when he is hitting his targets, but what about the 42 pts he has given the opponents? Hatch would be the clear-cut starter had he not injured his leg vs UGA. Jefferson is young, but we have three more QB recruits on the way next year and this year is not a waste IMO. Preseason I expected LSU to be a 2 or 3 loss team and to win a bowl game. They win out and they get the Cotton Bowl most likely. Hell, a 9-3 season and a Cotton Bowl victory would be great in my book.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
anyone know why the hell the bucks are favored by 10? i had this line at 6.5. o-state, you think the bucks roll here? i have a hard time seeing why they do.
think i'm going to be on illinois, but i'd like to know where you put the line kyle, and some feedback from a few of you guys would be helpful..thanks.
think i'm going to be on illinois, but i'd like to know where you put the line kyle, and some feedback from a few of you guys would be helpful..thanks.
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