RetroVK
This claim is disputed
updated through week 11
overall 67-55-2 54.9%
Sides 43-38-2 53.1%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-16 58.9 % <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Getting started early and i am ahead of schedule in my capping already.
ok i went 4-5 last week which was disappointing but i feel it was a normal type week for me. i think i had 5 bets capped really well and 4 bets not so much which is about what i do each week. however , instead of benefitting from a bad beat and going 6-3 , i suffered one instead and finished 4-5. it happerns. All in all not unhappy other than maybe the notre dame bet.
Alright lets recap last weeks card from worst capped to best capped
Notre dame +3 --loser-- I have lots of problems with this bet in retrospect but first lets go over the game. Notre Dame was flat. Boston College had WAY more emotion for this one than the irish did. Game took a really bad turn when clausen missed an open receiver and the result was an interception return for td. The final score of this puppy was 17-0 and could have been worse if not for a couple of missed fg by the eagles kicker. BTW the fg kicking for this team is nothing short of awful and should be considered before making a bet on BC. This is a game where the yardage stats are going to be a tad deceiving. Notre Dame had a 16-13 fd edge and a 292 - 242 yardage edge. However , the irish committed 5 turnovers , had a punt blocked and failed twice on fourth down in BC territory includinga 4<SUP>th</SUP> and 1. But boston college just played very conservatively on offense in the second half with a big manageable lead. ND never had a goal to go set of downs in this game. Clausen cannot throw a wet ball which really hurt. Here is a game where I knew in advance that notre dame would struggle to run the ball but where I thought they could pass with success. And they had open guys all over the place but clausen couldn’t hit them/ He was overthrowing almost everything. Maybe the wet ball , maybe clausen. I HATE betting teams that I know will struggle to run and in retrospect wish I had not made this bet. A sunny day , instead of a wet one would have helped though. To add to the misery of this play I got the worst number I ever saw available on the game. Nice work by me… not.
Marshall/ecu over 44 --loser--really was hurt by costly drive killing penalties in the first quarter including one that took away a td run on first and goal and penalized ecu 15 yards . Marshall ahd a ten yard holding penalty on goal to go and that resulted in a missed fg. I suppose this game could have turned out much differently but I did not get the production from the offenses that I was expecting. A late marshall td and missed fg by ecu took the game into overtime tied at 16 … and giving this old dog some hope. But strangely marshall threw three straight times in overtime and then missed the long fg attempt. Ecu connected and the bid for the ever rare lucky win was over. 580 yards and 36 first downs is not what I want when I bet an over.
Colorado st +10 --loser -- hehe well a large part of the bet was my belief that csu could move the ball on air force and they did ….unfortunately they had NO answer for the air force attack which was running on all cylinders in this one. Complete domination by air force offense. Each team had 19 first downs and air force had a 101 yard advantage so that was not too bad with the +10 but csu gave up a ton of big plays in this game. Also missed a bunch of opportunites that would have made this far more interesting. Fairchild went for it on fourth and goal at the one at the end of the first half and the csu back ran it in but the qb snapped the ball a half second too late and they were penalized for delay of game. Csu kicked the fg and it was 21-17 at the half. Csu was then driving to start the third quarter when farris threw an ugly interception. Air force quickly capitalized with a td and then farris threw another interception which resulted in an air force td and csu lost all their heart after that. It went from what looked like was going to be a third quarter lead to being down 35-17. Thought I would share this with you because I thought it was amazing ……..WITH 12:18 LEFT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AIR FORCE HAD THE BALL FIRST AND 10 AT THEIR OWN 27 YARDLINE AND PROCEEDED TO RUN OUT THE GAME CLOCK. This Calhoun guy can coach by the way .. The play calling was incredible.
Florida state -6 -- winner --fsu overcame a bad start to win and cover this game. Each team had 22 first downs and fsu had roughly a hundred more yards of offense. I benefited from an interception return for a td that completely changed the outlook of the game. This bet was under the assumption that fsu could stop the bread and butter run attack of Clemson and then let Clemson ineptitude throwing take over … I got half of that equation right as they held Clemson to 2.1 yards per carry ( some sacks distort that in their favor some ) but they had all kinds of success throwing on the fsu defense. Had you told me prior to the game that Clemson would put up 27 , there is no way that I make this bet. Give fsu credit for playing hard for a complete 60 minutes and this team is finally starting to live up to expectations
Iowa +8 , under 43.5 winner/loser -- well I have been saying for weeks that I thought iowa would beat pennst straight up but never did make a money line play on them. Game was a tale of two halves as pennst controlled the first half but iowa made defensive adjustments and controlled penn st in the second half. The lions benefited from some second half turnovers but otherwise struggled. A late interception thrown by pennst gave iowa one last drive to win the game and they made several key conversions along the way and won. I don’t even feel bad about my total bet here though I would not make the bet again. Basically lost the total because of the part of the field that the turnovers occurred. I have to admit I love this iowa football team and they continue to do their part at making me money. Pennst had a 24 -19 fd edge and a 289-272 yardage edge and given the freebies that iowa gave them , they should have won the game. But the bet was clearly a good one.
Nebraska +3 -120 winner -- Was in doubt for most of the game. There was an incredible play in this game by reesing. It seems there is an incredible play by that kid every week. He got absolutely nailed ona play outside the pocket but somehow not only stayed on his feet but threw a td pass on the play after the defense understandably thought the kid was going down. I know it is going to be hard to believe ….but I lost the turnover battle AGAIN. My turnover ratio this year is sickly. Nebraska had a 24-22 fd edge and a 495 - 422 edge in total yards. This was a game I did not get to see and I have yet to go through the play by play for an accurate accounting of what happened. But the bet looks good on its face at this point. Would be interested to hear from anyone who watched this game.
Purdue/mich st under 53 winner -- never in doubt despite Tiller being an idiot more times than I can count and having it blow up in his face. He went for it on fourth and 1 at around his own 30 yard line in the first quarter down 7-0 when he was getting no push from the o-line. He also threw the ball with under thirty seconds in the first half in his own end down 7-0 and it was intercepted and returned for a score with a few ticks left on the game clock. Moron. Purdue defense did a good job containing ringer for the most part as they were able to load up to stop it due to the weather conditions. Hoyer was therefore limited in what he could do. Purdue offense was completely shutdown all day long as their lone score came in the last minute of the game to avoid the shutout. 28 combined first downs and under 500 total yards of offense in a game lined 53. Yummy .. Nice to have an easy one.
Tcu -1 loser somehow -- not much to say here. If you read everything I had to say concerning that game in last weeks thread and last weeks tcu at Utah thread then you know why I feel this game was capped well. Everything that happened in the game fell right into place except for the score. Tcu could easily have won this by 3 td or more. Don’t really want to open up a bad beat wound so I will leave it at that. I think other than my eastern Michigan +22 game , this one was my best capped game of the year.
Wanted to point out another reason i feel ok about my 3-3 finish on sides this week .....In my six bets on sides vs the spread i lost the turnover battle 5-16 ...so -11 turnovers over the 6 games.
locked in
ncstate +4
TEXAS -12.5
oregon -3
maryland +3
notre dame -3
ucf +7.5
sjsu/nevada under 53
notredame/navy over 52
buffalo/akron under 61
purdue/iowa over 43.5
strong leans
rutgers +7.5
lsu -18
talk me off leans
south carolina +21.5 eliminated thur
purdue +17.5 eliminated thur
fsu -6.5 eliminated thur
washington +7 eliminated wed
byu -5.5 eliminated wed
overall 67-55-2 54.9%
Sides 43-38-2 53.1%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-16 58.9 % <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
Getting started early and i am ahead of schedule in my capping already.
ok i went 4-5 last week which was disappointing but i feel it was a normal type week for me. i think i had 5 bets capped really well and 4 bets not so much which is about what i do each week. however , instead of benefitting from a bad beat and going 6-3 , i suffered one instead and finished 4-5. it happerns. All in all not unhappy other than maybe the notre dame bet.
Alright lets recap last weeks card from worst capped to best capped
Notre dame +3 --loser-- I have lots of problems with this bet in retrospect but first lets go over the game. Notre Dame was flat. Boston College had WAY more emotion for this one than the irish did. Game took a really bad turn when clausen missed an open receiver and the result was an interception return for td. The final score of this puppy was 17-0 and could have been worse if not for a couple of missed fg by the eagles kicker. BTW the fg kicking for this team is nothing short of awful and should be considered before making a bet on BC. This is a game where the yardage stats are going to be a tad deceiving. Notre Dame had a 16-13 fd edge and a 292 - 242 yardage edge. However , the irish committed 5 turnovers , had a punt blocked and failed twice on fourth down in BC territory includinga 4<SUP>th</SUP> and 1. But boston college just played very conservatively on offense in the second half with a big manageable lead. ND never had a goal to go set of downs in this game. Clausen cannot throw a wet ball which really hurt. Here is a game where I knew in advance that notre dame would struggle to run the ball but where I thought they could pass with success. And they had open guys all over the place but clausen couldn’t hit them/ He was overthrowing almost everything. Maybe the wet ball , maybe clausen. I HATE betting teams that I know will struggle to run and in retrospect wish I had not made this bet. A sunny day , instead of a wet one would have helped though. To add to the misery of this play I got the worst number I ever saw available on the game. Nice work by me… not.
Marshall/ecu over 44 --loser--really was hurt by costly drive killing penalties in the first quarter including one that took away a td run on first and goal and penalized ecu 15 yards . Marshall ahd a ten yard holding penalty on goal to go and that resulted in a missed fg. I suppose this game could have turned out much differently but I did not get the production from the offenses that I was expecting. A late marshall td and missed fg by ecu took the game into overtime tied at 16 … and giving this old dog some hope. But strangely marshall threw three straight times in overtime and then missed the long fg attempt. Ecu connected and the bid for the ever rare lucky win was over. 580 yards and 36 first downs is not what I want when I bet an over.
Colorado st +10 --loser -- hehe well a large part of the bet was my belief that csu could move the ball on air force and they did ….unfortunately they had NO answer for the air force attack which was running on all cylinders in this one. Complete domination by air force offense. Each team had 19 first downs and air force had a 101 yard advantage so that was not too bad with the +10 but csu gave up a ton of big plays in this game. Also missed a bunch of opportunites that would have made this far more interesting. Fairchild went for it on fourth and goal at the one at the end of the first half and the csu back ran it in but the qb snapped the ball a half second too late and they were penalized for delay of game. Csu kicked the fg and it was 21-17 at the half. Csu was then driving to start the third quarter when farris threw an ugly interception. Air force quickly capitalized with a td and then farris threw another interception which resulted in an air force td and csu lost all their heart after that. It went from what looked like was going to be a third quarter lead to being down 35-17. Thought I would share this with you because I thought it was amazing ……..WITH 12:18 LEFT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AIR FORCE HAD THE BALL FIRST AND 10 AT THEIR OWN 27 YARDLINE AND PROCEEDED TO RUN OUT THE GAME CLOCK. This Calhoun guy can coach by the way .. The play calling was incredible.
Florida state -6 -- winner --fsu overcame a bad start to win and cover this game. Each team had 22 first downs and fsu had roughly a hundred more yards of offense. I benefited from an interception return for a td that completely changed the outlook of the game. This bet was under the assumption that fsu could stop the bread and butter run attack of Clemson and then let Clemson ineptitude throwing take over … I got half of that equation right as they held Clemson to 2.1 yards per carry ( some sacks distort that in their favor some ) but they had all kinds of success throwing on the fsu defense. Had you told me prior to the game that Clemson would put up 27 , there is no way that I make this bet. Give fsu credit for playing hard for a complete 60 minutes and this team is finally starting to live up to expectations
Iowa +8 , under 43.5 winner/loser -- well I have been saying for weeks that I thought iowa would beat pennst straight up but never did make a money line play on them. Game was a tale of two halves as pennst controlled the first half but iowa made defensive adjustments and controlled penn st in the second half. The lions benefited from some second half turnovers but otherwise struggled. A late interception thrown by pennst gave iowa one last drive to win the game and they made several key conversions along the way and won. I don’t even feel bad about my total bet here though I would not make the bet again. Basically lost the total because of the part of the field that the turnovers occurred. I have to admit I love this iowa football team and they continue to do their part at making me money. Pennst had a 24 -19 fd edge and a 289-272 yardage edge and given the freebies that iowa gave them , they should have won the game. But the bet was clearly a good one.
Nebraska +3 -120 winner -- Was in doubt for most of the game. There was an incredible play in this game by reesing. It seems there is an incredible play by that kid every week. He got absolutely nailed ona play outside the pocket but somehow not only stayed on his feet but threw a td pass on the play after the defense understandably thought the kid was going down. I know it is going to be hard to believe ….but I lost the turnover battle AGAIN. My turnover ratio this year is sickly. Nebraska had a 24-22 fd edge and a 495 - 422 edge in total yards. This was a game I did not get to see and I have yet to go through the play by play for an accurate accounting of what happened. But the bet looks good on its face at this point. Would be interested to hear from anyone who watched this game.
Purdue/mich st under 53 winner -- never in doubt despite Tiller being an idiot more times than I can count and having it blow up in his face. He went for it on fourth and 1 at around his own 30 yard line in the first quarter down 7-0 when he was getting no push from the o-line. He also threw the ball with under thirty seconds in the first half in his own end down 7-0 and it was intercepted and returned for a score with a few ticks left on the game clock. Moron. Purdue defense did a good job containing ringer for the most part as they were able to load up to stop it due to the weather conditions. Hoyer was therefore limited in what he could do. Purdue offense was completely shutdown all day long as their lone score came in the last minute of the game to avoid the shutout. 28 combined first downs and under 500 total yards of offense in a game lined 53. Yummy .. Nice to have an easy one.
Tcu -1 loser somehow -- not much to say here. If you read everything I had to say concerning that game in last weeks thread and last weeks tcu at Utah thread then you know why I feel this game was capped well. Everything that happened in the game fell right into place except for the score. Tcu could easily have won this by 3 td or more. Don’t really want to open up a bad beat wound so I will leave it at that. I think other than my eastern Michigan +22 game , this one was my best capped game of the year.
Wanted to point out another reason i feel ok about my 3-3 finish on sides this week .....In my six bets on sides vs the spread i lost the turnover battle 5-16 ...so -11 turnovers over the 6 games.
locked in
ncstate +4
TEXAS -12.5
oregon -3
maryland +3
notre dame -3
ucf +7.5
sjsu/nevada under 53
notredame/navy over 52
buffalo/akron under 61
purdue/iowa over 43.5
strong leans
rutgers +7.5
lsu -18
talk me off leans
south carolina +21.5 eliminated thur
purdue +17.5 eliminated thur
fsu -6.5 eliminated thur
washington +7 eliminated wed
byu -5.5 eliminated wed
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) that it might have been a bad spot is all. Would be surprised now if we saw too many great efforts out of this club this year. On a side note , i think this particular game bodes well for the michigan program because a lot of teams with michigans storied history would have shut down the season already ( see auburn and tennessee ) but Richrod still had the guys playing hard. I am telling you ... once he gets his types of players in there for his system , michigan will be back.
