2008-2009 Bowl Thread

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Bowl Season: 6-5..+.82 units

Every play will be put in here, and throughout thread.

I normally don't play anything early (UTAH), but I did have to grab this line early since it is at a key number and has to jump a lot to get to another key number..if you like the dog.

Play #1---Utah +11 at -110 2.20 units to win 2.00

blurbs on below picks throughout thread

Play #2---Iowa -3 at -125 2.50 units to win 2.00

Play #3---TCU -2.5 at -110 2.20 units to win 2.00---LOSS

Play #4---Navy ML +120...1 unit to win 1.20---LOSS

Play #5---Memphis +11.5 at -110 1.10 units to win 1---LOSS

Play #6---Arizona -3 at -115 1.15 units to win 1---WIN

Play #7---Colorado State ML +108..1 unit to win 1.08---WIN

Play #8---Southern Miss. 2nd half +3 at -110...1.10 units to win 1.00---WIN

Play #9---Hawaii +3 at -120.....0.70 units to win 0.50---LOSS

Play #10---FAU +7 at -102...1.02 units to win 1.00---WIN

Play #11---LAtech ML at -125..1.25 to win 1.00--WIN

Play #12---Northwestern +14 at -120...1.20 units to win 1.00---WIN

Play #13---Oklahoma State +1 at -110...1.10 units to win 1.00---LOSS



GL all.
 
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Small lean your way here. I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion on this game. I'm not high on Utah at all, in fact I am still shocked they ran the table. The deck is stacked against Bama in this one. Complete Lose/Lose situation:

Bama wins: Who gives a fuck, you beat Utah like you were supposed to..

Bama loses: Well, let's just say it would serious hurt the SEC and the gigantic strides Bama made this year

Bama is never a good chalk play but they deserve a look as a dog 90% of the time IMHO. This one should be pretty low scoring where points will be at a premiuim. I'll try and provide as much info on bama's motivation as the game draws closer. GL bro
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm not high on Utah at all
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agreed...me neither. they were very fortunate to escape losses to both tcu and oregon st...not to mention a tarded performance against new mex.

gotta wish u good health here, brotha...as i'll be against you in all likelihood. but the bottom line to this bowl is if Bama will show up to play or not.

if they don't...you'll be sitting pretty, and i'll be losing.
 
Thanks fellas..

Utah definitely has had some close calls all year as has Bama.

Utah is a mirror image of Bama as I said in another thread. I think they have more incentive to be here...Saban will make sure the guys are motivated but these are still 19-22 year old kids..Utah is a step below for them.

Utah has a good secondary, good linebackers who tackle well, a good run game and a QB who has been there before. Also, Sakoda is the best kicker/punter in the country hands down. Just a solid overall team as Bama is..Bama is great no doubt, but 11 is too many imo.
 
Hunt tough loss last week bra....11 will be a key number for me for now on....4 and 11 I think are just as key as 3 and 10..........went big on Bama had BC, Army and then I lost my composure and upped my unit size trying to get back and lost big on Nati.......whatever you lost can't be as bad as me i lost my bankroll and the Bama lost really killed my day and got me shook up

Worst week for me all season and right now I'm depressed, and am currently trying to put the booze down. I feel like Art Schlichter for what I did, I need to step away a bit before I end up in rehab


so don't feel too bad on the loss
 
As far as the matchup I think Utah couldn't of hoped for a better matchup

Two very similar teams and for Utah we can compare it to the TCU game

.......Utah is probably as below Bama as they were to TCU

with some breaks and luck Utah could be in it in the 4th quarter and in that scenario they have come back and found a way to win all season......different team in final 5 minutes of 4th

....But for sure Utah defense is very solid....they can contain BAMA probably as well as anyone has all season

....offensively is another story for Utah unless it's the end of the 4th quarter.

Need to open up the spread and get Brian Johsnon passing early
 
O-State said:
Hunt tough loss last week bra....11 will be a key number for me for now on....4 and 11 I think are just as key as 3 and 10..........went big on Bama had BC, Army and then I lost my composure and upped my unit size trying to get back and lost big on Nati.......whatever you lost can't be as bad as me i lost my bankroll and the Bama lost really killed my day and got me shook up

Worst week for me all season and right now I'm depressed, and am currently trying to put the booze down. I feel like Art Schlichter for what I did, I need to step away a bit before I end up in rehab


so don't feel too bad on the loss
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Thanks man...11 has always been a key number, but If I have a team I believe can win on the ML I don't worry about it as much.

I lost my confidence for 3 hours bro On BAMA, was pissed as all hell...but then I asked myself over and over would I make this bet again? Hell yes I would..and it was looking damn good on the flipping ML with 1 quarter left. Shit happens though, and it is what it is. Florida just happened to have the intangibles and made big plays down the stretch..great teams do that. Nothing to be ashamed of, and there's always more money to lose and be made. You will be OK..your a great capper.
 
I really think this game comes down to special teams as crazy as it sounds..two disciplined teams who have qb's that manage a game...good run games..good defenses..
 
Yanks, I have no idea what will happen with the line but I wanted that 11. I can see Bama winning by 10 lol.
 
I think bama is heads and shoulders superior to utah at almost every position. The problem for bama will be motivation ... one day you are playing in the sec title game , with a chance at a national title and the next game you are playing utah.... just seems like a very difficult game for bama to get up for. Utah defense is underrated but that offense is really pretty putrid against decent competition. Comess down to if you think saban has the kids emotionally ready and puts an emphasis on winning a bcs bowl or whether they just come out flat and go through the motions. I will have to look more closely myselft but wish you luck. Do you see any major edges for utah on the field itself other than sakoda ?
 
Hunt, why do you not feel that Bama just playing Florida gives them an edge. Considering much of the offense run by Utah is left over from the Meyer era. Bama just faced a spread run offense that is certainly much faster than that of Utah. Bama's defense should be used to gap assignments. This could aid them as they already have a week of practice against the same style offense. Utah has not faced a power game to the likes of Bama. Sure they played TCU, but surely you cannot compare the two offensively. The defense, some may argue that TCU is better. It would be a close call for me, giving BAMA a slight edge. I hope this line is bet down off the big number, but can not see it happening.
 
One area I must mention that I feel Bama has the advantage is going to be in the trenches. There are very few teams in the nation that can be a physical on both LOS'. I think Utah will be a bit surprised the first few series of the game, and maybe a bit exhausted as Alabama hurts more players per game than I have ever seen. That's not because they play dirty, the are just nasty in the trenches. All that being said, I think there is some value in +11
 
vegaskyle said:
I. The problem for bama will be motivation ...
Click to expand...
The number is right but the statement above is key in capping this game IMO.. If this were for the National Championship, Bama wins this by 3 TDs easily.. Its not, so the number is set around 10.. If I can get comfortable that bama is in the right frame of mind, I will make a rare chalk play on them around 4 units... Just not sure if I can get comfortable with that though.... This game is a cappers dream because easy arguments can be made on both sides.

GL Hunt and good discussion guys..
 
vegaskyle said:
I think bama is heads and shoulders superior to utah at almost every position. The problem for bama will be motivation ... one day you are playing in the sec title game , with a chance at a national title and the next game you are playing utah.... just seems like a very difficult game for bama to get up for. Utah defense is underrated but that offense is really pretty putrid against decent competition. Comess down to if you think saban has the kids emotionally ready and puts an emphasis on winning a bcs bowl or whether they just come out flat and go through the motions. I will have to look more closely myselft but wish you luck. Do you see any major edges for utah on the field itself other than sakoda ?
Click to expand...


This is basically my initial reaction . In fact its what I think but to a much deeper depth in that I have little doubt in your opinion .

My hope is a YOUNG Bama team who wasnt supposed to be where they were can use that as motivation . A Sloppy effort will really erase all they did in 2008 IMO .

So agree on UTAH's offense really cant see it scoring much . Perfect example is the HOME GAME vs TCU .

I just dont see Utah getting past or even 14 points here . Very solid defense but if Bama can score 20 on Fla they should get 27 or 28 here without much doubt in my mind......Could easily see 27 to 31 then 10-14pts..Guess 28-13.....:shake:

 
tee*dub said:
The number is right but the statement above is key in capping this game IMO.. If this were for the National Championship, Bama wins this by 3 TDs easily.. Its not, so the number is set around 10.. If I can get comfortable that bama is in the right frame of mind, I will make a rare chalk play on them around 4 units... Just not sure if I can get comfortable with that though.... This game is a cappers dream because easy arguments can be made on both sides.

GL Hunt and good discussion guys..
Click to expand...

As per my response to VK clearly agree with you here. :shake:
 
By logically speaking, we are saying that Utah would be a 21 pt dog to FLA. Since Fla just beat BAMA by 11. I have to think that Florida would defeat UTAH by more than 21 pts.
 
booksbestfriend said:
By logically speaking, we are saying that Utah would be a 21 pt dog to FLA. Since Fla just beat BAMA by 11. I have to think that Florida would defeat UTAH by more than 21 pts.
Click to expand...

Urban would do what he does best.. He would tell UF alum to grab the Gators -20.5 and Utah Alum to wait on the line to get to 21.5 and he would make sure he won it by 21.. Keeping his teams, former and present, Alumni happy and with fat wallets
 
Tide High said:
bama will be motivated.
Click to expand...

why? Serious question.

Motivated to play well and win? Or motivated to dominate?

Here's the problem-- in order for them to cover 10 point spread with ease, they need to have the mindset of embarassing Utah.. If this were a regular season game in which "style points" are needed I would play Bama without question.. Style points do you no good now.. I could see Bama just doing enough to win.. Thats my problem.. Bama is 21 points better but betting Bowl games is a very different matter than betting regular season games..

Talk to us Tide.. Why will they be motivated to more than win?
 
tee*dub said:
why? Serious question.

Motivated to play well and win? Or motivated to dominate?

Here's the problem-- in order for them to cover 10 point spread with ease, they need to have the mindset of embarassing Utah.. If this were a regular season game in which "style points" are needed I would play Bama without question.. Style points do you no good now.. I could see Bama just doing enough to win.. Thats my problem.. Bama is 21 points better but betting Bowl games is a very different matter than betting regular season games..

Talk to us Tide.. Why will they be motivated to more than win?
Click to expand...

Tee,

I don't have a ton of time on my hands right now but I'll chime in on the Bama behalf as we get closer. Two main points that I'll ellaborate on later:

1. Saban. honestly, can you name many big games the guy has coached in where he has not shown 100% effort and focus. Thuis, demanding the same from his players?

2. Mixture of Youth and Veteran Players. Bama has some key upperclassmen that have been on the Alabama roller coaster over the past few seasons. They will want to go out and DOMINATE in this football game. I'm sure many players will feel it's a slap in their face to play Utah in the Sugar Bowl after being a few key mistakes away from playing Oklahoma in Miami. I think with the abundance of youth on Bama they will go out and be fighting hard for PT in this game and in the years to come. These young guys know the talent is stacking up behind them as far as recruiting goes and they may feel this is a great opportunity to either live up to their hype and to make sure they will be close to the top of the depth chart come next spring.
 
Crimson hit my main points... Saban and freshmen. these kids have never been to a bowl game. JPW will not care to lose his last game as a football player.

I'm not endorsing playing bama vs the spread, but I see no letdown here. Saban will have these boys fired up.
 
also its extremely hard not to dominate when you run the ball so well. if you get rolling with the run game, its just too much fun for the Oline to keep pounding it. I think the defense will look to show out after getting dominated in the last quarter they played.
 
i will be listening to press conferences by saban as well. i will certainly use that to help cap this game and will keep people filled in. locals should be doing the same for their respective teams to guage practice success and coach motivation tactics and whether or not theyll work
 
ahhh post whore i am!

one thing to look into is playing time for the newboys. i'll be looking into this leading up to the game, but i think we'll see some guys get PT that haven't played much if we get up big. only if we're up big though so it will only be a factor in capping the possibility of a backdoor
 
Love it fellas..keep me up to date please..I will gladly take this off if need be.
 
Bro, no matter what has been said there is no way going from UNDISPUTED #1 to afterthought overnight doesn't cause a Bama hangover.......:shake:

Now, Saban is a master motivator and they do have 3+ weeks to refocus....but every year we see bowl games where the "weaker" team competes and often wins.


Mully :cheers:
 
MrMulligan said:
Bro, no matter what has been said there is no way going from UNDISPUTED #1 to afterthought overnight doesn't cause a Bama hangover.......:shake:

Now, Saban is a master motivator and they do have 3+ weeks to refocus....but every year we see bowl games where the "weaker" team competes and often wins.


Mully :cheers:
Click to expand...

Mully, with no disrespect to you, but I don't think you are accounting for the pride of tide football. This program has been in the dumps for years. If anything, I would think they would want to keep improving on what they have accomplished this year. To completely write of the 08 season because they were beat by your Gator team is ridiculous.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Mully, with no disrespect to you, but I don't think you are accounting for the pride of tide football. This program has been in the dumps for years. If anything, I would think they would want to keep improving on what they have accomplished this year. To completely write of the 08 season because they were beat by your Gator team is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

book, I'm not looking to write off Bama's season or questioning their pride (don't all major programs have pride?)...I think they have a tremendously bright future. My opinion also has nothing to do with them losing to "my Gators", it was one helluva close game......:shake:

The only fact that matters to me is that they've gone from undisputed #1, possible SEC Champs, possible MNC...to afterthought, overnight. Human nature dictates major disappointment and a psychological hangover from these developments.

I am looking for that big fav that underperforms in Bowl play due to their motivation...it happens every year, sometimes multiple times. I believe Bama fits the bill as this possiblility due to the reasons I've given...nothing personal...in fact, I root for all SEC teams in Bowl Play (as long as I'm not wagering against them).

Mully :cheers:
 
MrMulligan said:
book, I'm not looking to write off Bama's season or questioning their pride (don't all major programs have pride?)...I think they have a tremendously bright future. My opinion also has nothing to do with them losing to "my Gators", it was one helluva close game......:shake:

The only fact that matters to me is that they've gone from undisputed #1, possible SEC Champs, possible MNC...to afterthought, overnight. Human nature dictates major disappointment and a psychological hangover from these developments.

I am looking for that big fav that underperforms in Bowl play due to their motivation...it happens every year, sometimes multiple times. I believe Bama fits the bill as this possiblility due to the reasons I've given...nothing personal...in fact, I root for all SEC teams in Bowl Play (as long as I'm not wagering against them).

Mully :cheers:
Click to expand...

I can understand the capping perspective of disappointment. Just do not know if this is going to fit the bill in this particular instance. I can see this being a factor in teams like Maryland, BC, S. Car, and maybe Ball St.

Maryland -was playing for the ACC crown up until the last couple of weeks of the season

BC - lost their starting quarterback, which may have cost them the ACC crown.

So. Car - the only thing that would have made their season somewhat managable would have been beating Clemson.

Ball St.- No asperations of playing for the MNC, but saw an ass whooping from a -15 dog for their conference title.

BAMA on the other hand played well above their expected goals for the year. This can be attributed to great coaching and disciplined play. Realistically, they weren't expected to be playing for the SEC crown. They still have a chance for a big payday and a step closer to their ultimate goals of returning to national prominance. I would love to see your outtake on the above mentioned as I see your theory holding water on each of them. Good luch with all your wagers. :cheers:
 
booksbestfriend said:
I can understand the capping perspective of disappointment. Just do not know if this is going to fit the bill in this particular instance. I can see this being a factor in teams like Maryland, BC, S. Car, and maybe Ball St.

Maryland -was playing for the ACC crown up until the last couple of weeks of the season

BC - lost their starting quarterback, which may have cost them the ACC crown.

So. Car - the only thing that would have made their season somewhat managable would have been beating Clemson.

Ball St.- No asperations of playing for the MNC, but saw an ass whooping from a -15 dog for their conference title.

BAMA on the other hand played well above their expected goals for the year. This can be attributed to great coaching and disciplined play. Realistically, they weren't expected to be playing for the SEC crown. They still have a chance for a big payday and a step closer to their ultimate goals of returning to national prominance. I would love to see your outtake on the above mentioned as I see your theory holding water on each of them. Good luch with all your wagers. :cheers:
Click to expand...

I do like each of your picks (especially MD & BSU)...I also have Fresno, USF, Boise, CMU & USC as possible MOTIVATION Angle play-against teams....GL too, bro :cheers:
 
Great stuff mully and books, I respect your opinions a lot...I'm going to hold onto it for now, but a lot can change in a month eh?
 
No need to be sorry bro...feel free to chime in anytime..that's what it's about.

Okay another play I just couldn't resist...especially if teedub and BAR are on..haven;t checked VK's threa today to see if he is on it as well..yes, I paid extra juice, but in this instance I think it is worth it.

Iowa -3 at -125 2.50 units to win 2.00

I think this is a team on the up and up, and SC is a team on the downswing..I honestly think that team has thrown in the towel after UF...Iowa has a food oline, solid defense and of course Mr. Greene.

South Carolina is one of those emotional teams imo..if theings aren't going their way they get flustered.
 
Absolutely love Northwestern, team always plays hard and can score points...wtf does MIzzou have to play for? will take ML and points closer to gametime.

Also like Tulsa..I think Ball St. is SHOT...think they give a fuck either? nah..I think line is also low for a reason here..

Really want to take UGA over MSU..but UGA being outrushed last couple games concerns me..I don't think the defense is that strong up the middle when you got Kentucky and Gtech and Auburn running on you...any thoughts on these?
 
I haven't looked too closely at this game, anyone considered Navy +3?
Seems like the Wake players are not too enthused about early bowl game:

Wake Forest juggling plans for bowl game
<!-- /HEADLINE --><!-- MAIN PHOTO --><!-- /MAIN PHOTO --><!-- BYLINE -->The Associated Press <!-- /BYLINE --><!-- PUBDATE -->
Published: Tuesday, December 9, 2008 at 5:32 p.m.
Last Modified: Tuesday, December 9, 2008 at 5:32 p.m.
<!-- /PUBDATE -->
It's nothing new these days for Wake Forest to go to a bowl game.

<!-- GRAY BOX ARTICLE CONTENT--><!-- /GRAY BOX ARTICLE CONTENT-->What is new for the Demon Deacons is playing in a bowl game before the holidays.
Having earned a school-record third consecutive postseason invitation, Wake Forest (7-5) will open the 2008 bowl schedule against Navy (8-4) in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in Washington on Dec. 20. Between final exams and holiday preparations, the Demon Deacons are doing plenty of multi-tasking.

"You always hear, you'll be home for Christmas," as an insult, senior middle linebacker Stanley Arnoux said. "This year, actually, we're going to a bowl and we'll still be home for Christmas."
Coach Jim Grobe said Tuesday some players have grumbled about playing so soon.
"Our guys have been used to having some time off," Grobe said. "It's been difficult to rally the guys back together and say, hey, before we can blink, we're going to be teeing it up again."

Fortunately, Wake Forest is familiar with its opponent. The Demon Deacons have played Navy in the last two regular seasons with the Midshipmen winning, 24-17, on Sept. 27 in Winston-Salem.
 
good find mully..If navy can win at wake forest I don't see why they can't again...but then of course you have the revenge angle on the other side..I wonder if there is a list of rematches in bowls in the last 3 or 4 years and what the record was SU?
 
Any Terelle Pryor defenders in this bitch...and while were at it, any Daryl Clark supporters? I love both teams all around but QB really bugs me....When Clark saw any kind of defense he seemed to fold like a tent...and Pryor made some big mistakes against PSU..just a food for thought.
 
HUNTDOG said:
Absolutely love Northwestern, team always plays hard and can score points...wtf does MIzzou have to play for? will take ML and points closer to gametime.
Click to expand...


Exactly!:smiley_acbe: And that Mizzou weak pass d at the very worst gives you the possibility of a backdoor. I already missed the 13.5, and 13 is out there now...gonna hit that now, and later again if the line hits 14...and like you said, maybe a little change on the ML for shits n giggles.
 
JML4481 said:
Exactly!:smiley_acbe: And that Mizzou weak pass d at the very worst gives you the possibility of a backdoor. I already missed the 13.5, and 13 is out there now...gonna hit that now, and later again if the line hits 14...and like you said, maybe a little change on the ML for shits n giggles.
Click to expand...


Right?! I dig it...I think it goes up again.

Adding:

TCU -2.5 at -110... 2.20 units to win 2.00

Just had to pull the trigger...People on this forum know this team like the back of their hands and I respect their takes..also love this tenacious D...Boise gonna have fits.
 
South Carolina is one of those emotional teams imo..if theings aren't going their way they get flustered.

Great point.
 
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