The last days have gone well. I think my patience has paid dividends along with getting somebreaks. Think somewhere around 13-2 and another 3-0 on 2nd H plays for like +44 units. I say that more as caution then say hype.
Over 209 LAL / Boston {6units} : win +6.00
Really at this point its hard to bet LAL until they become cheap. Even as bad as BOS has been note sure laying -8 is cheap playing an ATS road machine. It is Bos 3rd away in 4 nites but tmrw they play #4 away in 5 nites. So that could be a big fade spot IF they won here SU. Boston is now 12-2 ATS past 14 away with both non covers by the HOOK..(12-1 last 13). Credit Doc Rivers for motivating his team to give an effort every nite and for the public to continually HATIN' on Boston and having no faith them.
The Celts have allowed 8 of 11 to score better then 100 pts. The 4 games after Pierce's initial return vs NJ have gone OVER....@ Minny 107-109 , vs Milw 117-97 , @ Sac 104-101 (slow 2nd H) , and PHO 118-108. You can look at when they traved recently to Denver(221 scored) , GSW (210), Memphis (247) , Wash (225), and now Pho (226). The meeting in Bos w/o Pierce when the fans were cheering for Kobe was 111-98.
The Lakers are 15-6 Over last 21 at home. Last 3 at home for LAL 107-106 loss to NYK , 114-108 loss to Cle , and 112-108 loss to Portland. Teams are 117- 224 from the floor alllowed and Port was 43/72! Boston L5 is shooting 52 % from 3 pt rangle but allowing nearly 42%. I would expect both teams to be in the 25 -35 FT attempted range.
What scares me is the great over runs by both and the fact LAL has to realize they must defend to get a win. Since this isnt catching much publicity then I will roll with it heavy....
----Den -3-115 {2units} Loss -2.30 Going with the fade the returning STARS theory Staying away from the Denver / Utah matchup for now . Both Williams and Boozer are listed as game-time decisions and JR mith was a non-factor in the last meeting. Really seem to like DEN here regardless of the Utah stars status. The Nuggets have lost twice to Utah and the last meeting Boozer and Deron had alot to do with that...
----- Memphis +4.5 {4units} Wn +4.00 ML +180 {1unit}+1.80 Over 208 {3units}-3.30:Nothing concrete yet but liking Memphis +4.5 despite being 3-8 ATS in the Barone ERA on the road. Also hard to not like a Mem over especially one that is only 208. Portland hasnt played much defense lately and both teams will send there opponents to the FT line. I think what is helpful is the perception of Port still as a low scoring offense and general bad team which we know is not true. Brando Roy has been key to the offense all season providing Randolph with that 2nd option. Both teams playing 3rd in 4 nites. You have to look at a Port team Over cause every road game has seen MEM allow 111 or better....Blazers should be 106 or 106.5 ...
----- Under 205.5 Wash {5units} Win +5.00 1st H Under 101 {2units} Win +2.00 Under 98.5 Wash team {4units} Win +4.00 Bulls 1st H -4.5 {2units}Win +2.00 & -8 -105 {4units}Win +4.00 :With Chi man did I miss the boat here. At full strength when Was was struggling away they were +6 in CHI and lost....now w/o Jamison this opened 5.5!! Have to believe that was SMART MONEY pushing this line to the point it should be. If they were +6 with AJ then +8 makes sense w/o him. Just not sure I wont to play Chi at -8 would have up to -6.5....so I guess we will see. Chi is Wash worst nightmare now IMO. A team that plays team defense !! You have to think 3rd in 4nites after AS weekend this could be a spot where WASH is fatigued since Butler and Arenas were away this weekend.
Arenas, though, has scored just 30 points on 8-for-27 shooting in two games against Chicago this season.
So after 2 huge efforts what does Agent Zero have left in the tank here?? Do like the UNDER 205.5 here but almsot certainly will be playing the Wiz team Under and possible Bulls team over. Noicini is back in a limited capacity. You have to think the 1st two games took much more out of Wiz then Chi....( so do lean towards Bulls or pass maybe 1st H..??)
Over 204 {2units} & Over 206 Seattle {3units}-5.50
Both teams now healthy are scoring at high clips. Hornets if you havent noticed are 8-0 OVER past 8. Which is not as concerning since the Hornets have built up an UNDER / LOW SCORING Image past few seasons. They have basicaly scored 100+ in 8 straight and allowed it it in 7 of 8. Look @ Seattle away 122 , 118 ,112 , 102 and 103 last 5 allowed away. They scored at least 102 in all of those road games....
All you have to do is take a peak at the stats for SEA. 14-9-2 Over away compared to 17-10-1 Over at home for NO. Side note SEA is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS on 2 days rest which they are here. Both teams allowing 80+ shots recently and geting 25-30 Ft attempts and not defending the three...
---- Despite Minnys 20-6 Over home record I dont like the over here. Think Suns are less then full strength and Minny to inconsistent. With nekither team shooting above 47% recently and FTs not being an option in Suns games I would lean Under here. Not sure of a side but would favor Suns with revenge.....though Char off a big SU loss as home fav....bounce back spot..??
---- Under 87.5 -115 ATL {3units}-3.45 Looks like I missed some nice value with an ATL under vs Houston. I would be interested in team UND 88 for ATL though...Both teams are below 70% from the charity stripe recently but are getting to the line often enough that it is a concern. Both defenses are around 44 and 45 % while the offfenses arte 43 and 41 % from the floor... Upon futher review at 4.5 I dont see enough value in ATL. Its one of those games where I can see them losing by 6 or 7. Chances are they will not win this game SU even with TMac ailing abit.
----Under 105.5 1st H NYK {3units} +3.00:After being highly interested in the NYK / MILW over I have faded. I dont liek the fact Lee and Q dont seem to be 100% here and the line has creeped higher. Of course the over looks attratced butreality is NY scored just 85 pts last game and the Bucks are off an OT game which produced 260 pts...Its hard to notcie but NY is playing some DEF at home keeping most opponenst below 95 pts. Redd is back but the game in MILW saw 65 4th q points ...which skews the pace of the game IMO..Tend to lean towards NYK at home but not concrete...gonna wait to see where this total ends up before I decide at 208 ish its in NO MANS LAND...
---- NJ -3 {2units} +2.00 Have to think NJ has some value. They are slumping some but Vince is playing insane ball now. Kidd is playing again despite the 2-14 shooting. Tough to back SAC where they have to win a road game. You would think NJ is better edefensively then Wash and wont blow a 16 pt lead...
----- Magic +3 {2units}-2.20: At this point I dont see enough reason to back DET as road chalk. They just played flat in Milw in a somewhat similiar home and home situation. They are only 6-6 ATS as road chalk this season. The Magic didnt play as bad as the 22 pt loss indicates IMO. Howard was a beast but there FT shooting stunk (again) . I have to think with Chi on deck and even Miami this game isnt as key for DET as it is ORL. Maybe more of a distraction then anything cause DET still hasnt shown consistency. Expect less FTs taken and slow grind it out game...might dabble with Magic ML... rather take +3 then + 120 /125
---- Sixers +4.5 {2units} ML +180 {1/2unit}-2.70: Being that Char has played Philly well I had eaned that way. Coupled with a huge SU win @ Minny and letdown spot here and with key F/C Okefor ill andless then 100% I would have to pass. Really dont have much interest but would lean towards Philly somewhat....just not liking Okefor seemingly less then 100% and fading Char off SU win as big dog....
----Indy @ Tor was the tighest line on the board IMO.....One oddity is that TOR once they play an UNDER tend to follow it up with an UNDER every time this season with 1 exception that missed by 2 points and was part of a huge OVER run...(7 of 8 ova)...not feeling thsi game much after TOR screwed me vs Cle....would lean Under if anything
Will keep udating this window as I get through the games...BOL
Over 209 LAL / Boston {6units} : win +6.00
Really at this point its hard to bet LAL until they become cheap. Even as bad as BOS has been note sure laying -8 is cheap playing an ATS road machine. It is Bos 3rd away in 4 nites but tmrw they play #4 away in 5 nites. So that could be a big fade spot IF they won here SU. Boston is now 12-2 ATS past 14 away with both non covers by the HOOK..(12-1 last 13). Credit Doc Rivers for motivating his team to give an effort every nite and for the public to continually HATIN' on Boston and having no faith them.
The Celts have allowed 8 of 11 to score better then 100 pts. The 4 games after Pierce's initial return vs NJ have gone OVER....@ Minny 107-109 , vs Milw 117-97 , @ Sac 104-101 (slow 2nd H) , and PHO 118-108. You can look at when they traved recently to Denver(221 scored) , GSW (210), Memphis (247) , Wash (225), and now Pho (226). The meeting in Bos w/o Pierce when the fans were cheering for Kobe was 111-98.
The Lakers are 15-6 Over last 21 at home. Last 3 at home for LAL 107-106 loss to NYK , 114-108 loss to Cle , and 112-108 loss to Portland. Teams are 117- 224 from the floor alllowed and Port was 43/72! Boston L5 is shooting 52 % from 3 pt rangle but allowing nearly 42%. I would expect both teams to be in the 25 -35 FT attempted range.
What scares me is the great over runs by both and the fact LAL has to realize they must defend to get a win. Since this isnt catching much publicity then I will roll with it heavy....
----Den -3-115 {2units} Loss -2.30 Going with the fade the returning STARS theory Staying away from the Denver / Utah matchup for now . Both Williams and Boozer are listed as game-time decisions and JR mith was a non-factor in the last meeting. Really seem to like DEN here regardless of the Utah stars status. The Nuggets have lost twice to Utah and the last meeting Boozer and Deron had alot to do with that...
----- Memphis +4.5 {4units} Wn +4.00 ML +180 {1unit}+1.80 Over 208 {3units}-3.30:Nothing concrete yet but liking Memphis +4.5 despite being 3-8 ATS in the Barone ERA on the road. Also hard to not like a Mem over especially one that is only 208. Portland hasnt played much defense lately and both teams will send there opponents to the FT line. I think what is helpful is the perception of Port still as a low scoring offense and general bad team which we know is not true. Brando Roy has been key to the offense all season providing Randolph with that 2nd option. Both teams playing 3rd in 4 nites. You have to look at a Port team Over cause every road game has seen MEM allow 111 or better....Blazers should be 106 or 106.5 ...
----- Under 205.5 Wash {5units} Win +5.00 1st H Under 101 {2units} Win +2.00 Under 98.5 Wash team {4units} Win +4.00 Bulls 1st H -4.5 {2units}Win +2.00 & -8 -105 {4units}Win +4.00 :With Chi man did I miss the boat here. At full strength when Was was struggling away they were +6 in CHI and lost....now w/o Jamison this opened 5.5!! Have to believe that was SMART MONEY pushing this line to the point it should be. If they were +6 with AJ then +8 makes sense w/o him. Just not sure I wont to play Chi at -8 would have up to -6.5....so I guess we will see. Chi is Wash worst nightmare now IMO. A team that plays team defense !! You have to think 3rd in 4nites after AS weekend this could be a spot where WASH is fatigued since Butler and Arenas were away this weekend.
Arenas, though, has scored just 30 points on 8-for-27 shooting in two games against Chicago this season.
So after 2 huge efforts what does Agent Zero have left in the tank here?? Do like the UNDER 205.5 here but almsot certainly will be playing the Wiz team Under and possible Bulls team over. Noicini is back in a limited capacity. You have to think the 1st two games took much more out of Wiz then Chi....( so do lean towards Bulls or pass maybe 1st H..??)
Over 204 {2units} & Over 206 Seattle {3units}-5.50
Both teams now healthy are scoring at high clips. Hornets if you havent noticed are 8-0 OVER past 8. Which is not as concerning since the Hornets have built up an UNDER / LOW SCORING Image past few seasons. They have basicaly scored 100+ in 8 straight and allowed it it in 7 of 8. Look @ Seattle away 122 , 118 ,112 , 102 and 103 last 5 allowed away. They scored at least 102 in all of those road games....
All you have to do is take a peak at the stats for SEA. 14-9-2 Over away compared to 17-10-1 Over at home for NO. Side note SEA is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS on 2 days rest which they are here. Both teams allowing 80+ shots recently and geting 25-30 Ft attempts and not defending the three...
---- Despite Minnys 20-6 Over home record I dont like the over here. Think Suns are less then full strength and Minny to inconsistent. With nekither team shooting above 47% recently and FTs not being an option in Suns games I would lean Under here. Not sure of a side but would favor Suns with revenge.....though Char off a big SU loss as home fav....bounce back spot..??
---- Under 87.5 -115 ATL {3units}-3.45 Looks like I missed some nice value with an ATL under vs Houston. I would be interested in team UND 88 for ATL though...Both teams are below 70% from the charity stripe recently but are getting to the line often enough that it is a concern. Both defenses are around 44 and 45 % while the offfenses arte 43 and 41 % from the floor... Upon futher review at 4.5 I dont see enough value in ATL. Its one of those games where I can see them losing by 6 or 7. Chances are they will not win this game SU even with TMac ailing abit.
----Under 105.5 1st H NYK {3units} +3.00:After being highly interested in the NYK / MILW over I have faded. I dont liek the fact Lee and Q dont seem to be 100% here and the line has creeped higher. Of course the over looks attratced butreality is NY scored just 85 pts last game and the Bucks are off an OT game which produced 260 pts...Its hard to notcie but NY is playing some DEF at home keeping most opponenst below 95 pts. Redd is back but the game in MILW saw 65 4th q points ...which skews the pace of the game IMO..Tend to lean towards NYK at home but not concrete...gonna wait to see where this total ends up before I decide at 208 ish its in NO MANS LAND...
---- NJ -3 {2units} +2.00 Have to think NJ has some value. They are slumping some but Vince is playing insane ball now. Kidd is playing again despite the 2-14 shooting. Tough to back SAC where they have to win a road game. You would think NJ is better edefensively then Wash and wont blow a 16 pt lead...
----- Magic +3 {2units}-2.20: At this point I dont see enough reason to back DET as road chalk. They just played flat in Milw in a somewhat similiar home and home situation. They are only 6-6 ATS as road chalk this season. The Magic didnt play as bad as the 22 pt loss indicates IMO. Howard was a beast but there FT shooting stunk (again) . I have to think with Chi on deck and even Miami this game isnt as key for DET as it is ORL. Maybe more of a distraction then anything cause DET still hasnt shown consistency. Expect less FTs taken and slow grind it out game...might dabble with Magic ML... rather take +3 then + 120 /125
---- Sixers +4.5 {2units} ML +180 {1/2unit}-2.70: Being that Char has played Philly well I had eaned that way. Coupled with a huge SU win @ Minny and letdown spot here and with key F/C Okefor ill andless then 100% I would have to pass. Really dont have much interest but would lean towards Philly somewhat....just not liking Okefor seemingly less then 100% and fading Char off SU win as big dog....
----Indy @ Tor was the tighest line on the board IMO.....One oddity is that TOR once they play an UNDER tend to follow it up with an UNDER every time this season with 1 exception that missed by 2 points and was part of a huge OVER run...(7 of 8 ova)...not feeling thsi game much after TOR screwed me vs Cle....would lean Under if anything
Will keep udating this window as I get through the games...BOL
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