12.31 Bowls - 1.08 Bowls

Holy shit ! I saw 17-7 couple minutes before halftime and dinner was served . COme back down 31-7 at half ?? WTF? Guessed I missed an opportunity possibly ...oh well...shit happens its the Holidays ...

Last one for the day in addition to what I have already..weather looks okay some wind ...

Cincy ML -140 {Level3}
Cincy -2-120{Level2}

Cincy +3.5 and Over 35 {Level2} Teaser

Over TT Cincy 22.5 {Level2}

1st Half Cincy -0.5 {Level2} & -0.5 -120 {Level1}

Over 40 -130 {Level3}

Vatech +8.5 and Over 35 {Level1} Teaser

ECU +7 , Bama +1 and VaTech +12.5 {Level2} Teaser

Bama +1 , Cincy +7.5 and Over 31 {Level2} teaser






-Feel that VaTech has a home field edge here to a degree . They have some banged up defensive players but much like BC who couldnt beat Vandy they just dint play many tough offenses or teams in general. They have a solid win @ Nebraska as TD dogs and that it ...@ UNC they QB was injured and the Heels blew a big lead and not much else ..3 pt win vs GT at home...the offense has shown improvement and think they can get at least 17 while Cincy should be able to do some damage with the spread and VT pass defense not that solid statisically ...

Cincy has the edge in Punting and FG kicking which could loom large especially in some wind...

They hung tough in every game though ...some close wins and closes losses...

Just love the intangibles of Cincy as I am sure so many here do as well ...

Solid day till the Penn State game...lets get back on track !:cheers:

GL








 
SportsNut said:
happy to see Georgia won and covered ...I so regret not pounding the over was fearful that Georgia could hang 40 on them .. which is why I loved that 2 team teaser as it gave me some breathing room...dont regret the 2nd H hedge for 1/2 the play because risk was plentiful....but if you notice every HEDGE I make LOSES....seriously..

Rose Bowl Plays :
Under 55 Penn State , Over 31.5 Cincy and Cincy +7.5 Teaser {Level3}
Under 45.5 -120 {Level3}
1st Half Penn State +6 {Level2} & +5.5 -115{Level1}
1st Q Penn State +3 {Level2}
1st team to score Prop Penn State +140{Level1}
3rd Quarter Under 10-115 {Level2}
4th Quarter USC -1 {Level1}
1st H Under 23 -120 {Level1} & Under 23-130 {Level1}
Team Total Under 27.5 -115 USC {Level2}

Teaser :
Penn State +15.5 and Under 51 {Level3}

Already have Penn State +10-130 {level2 ) listed ...

Might add more be right back:cheers:GL
Click to expand...

Had Penn State +10.5 -120 for another Level 2 play , Under 23-130 1st Half for another Level1 Play and under 45.5 -130 for another Level2 play...one last teaser Penn State +20 , Under 54.5 USC and Cincy +7.5 ...Level2 ..

Shit game for me !
 
The more I read about this game the more I want to play Cincy and trust that their will be points scored.

VaTech has a few injuries on defense to some key players .

Now what should impress me about VT ?

They lost a close game @ ECU doesnt weigh much with me but Pickney 19/23 211yds TD does..Was it GT losing by 3 pts and -3 in turnovers but +140 on offense and that was home..+140 in yards that is . Winning by 3 @ UNC they trailed 17-3 at one point in the 3rd Q and starting QB was Yates who was injured started 11/18 181 yds TD , I'll say nioce win @ NEb but a solid fundamental team like VT obviously presents a challenge for Neb who was laos breaking in a new coach. NEB trailed alot but Ganz 17/26 278 yds 2 TD int.

You get the picture .....

bump the TT to Level 3 , add Cincy ML -140 {Level3) ...just see CIncy as consistent and the better team playing a huge game for the loaded with seniors ....:shake:

Hawaii was a vacation and I like how Cincy's coach means business with the whole PDiddy situation....

BOL all....

 
7 away or neutral games for VTech ..

Lost neutral vs ECU but beat BC without Crane

Lost away @ Miami , @ FSU and @ BC.

Won @ Neb was solid

Win @ UNC was gift wrapped doesnt happen IMO if Yates doesnt get hurt ...they were getting owned for 2.5 quarters......

So 1 good game away ??
 
Good Luck fellas ! JP , Cubsker , JML...

Stepped out on this after the Penn State game but guess I am showing a pattern of really fucking be way OFF in 1 game everyday ...otherwise I am essential 1 pt in the Iowa game from hitting all 6 sides and totals up to the Rose Bowl....

7-0 CINCY...Pike 3/4 66 yds ...hope it continues:shake::cheers:
 
1.01.09 Play List(L1 0.50% , L2 1.25% , L3 2.50%)

Iowa ML -165 {Level3}
Over 41.5 -120{Level2}
Team Total Over Iowa 23 -115{Level1}
Under 57 Clemson{Level2} & Under 56-120 Clemson {Level1}
1st H Under 28 Clemson {Level2}
1st Q Nebraska +0.5 -160{Level1}
Georgia -9{Level2} and -9.5 {Level2} which makes it a Level 3 play
Under 57 Georgia {Level1}
1st Q -0.5 Georgia -145 {Level1}

Penn State +10.5 -120 and +10 -130 (combined for Level3 play)
Under 45.5 -120 {Level3}
Under 45.5 -130 {Level2}
1st Half Penn State +6 {Level2} & +5.5 -115{Level1}
1st Q Penn State +3 {Level2}
1st team to score Prop Penn State +140{Level1}
3rd Quarter Under 10-115 {Level2}
4th Quarter USC -1 {Level1}
1st H Under 23 -150 {Level2}
Team Total Under 27.5 -115 USC {Level2}
Note: had 3 seperate Level 1 plays on the 1st H under which was 1.5% risking 1.85 so posted it as 1.25% at -150 to risk the 1.85%... just to keep the Levels straight

Teasers :
Penn State +15.5 and Under 51 {Level3}
Under 55 Penn State , Over 31.5 Cincy and Cincy +7.5 {Level3}
Penn State +20 , Under 54.5 USC and Cincy +7.5 {Level2}

Still Pending:
Cincy ML -130 {Level3} , ML -140 {Level3} , -2-120 {Level2} and ML -140{Level3}
Over 41.5 -120 {Level2}
Over 40-130 {Level3}
TT Over Cincy 22.5 {Level3}
1st H CIncy -0.5 -117{Level2} -had 2 L1 play so just added enough to get it to L2

Teasers :
Georgia -2.5 and Under 62.5 {Level3}
Georgia +1 , Penn State +19 , and Cincy +7.5{Level3} and {Level2}= 3.75% of roll
Under 63 and Neb +7.5 {Level1}
Vatech +8.5 and Over 35 {Level1}
ECU +7 , Bama +1 and VaTech +12.5 {Level2}
Bama +1 , Cincy +7.5 and Over 31 {Level2}
Cincy +3.5 and Over 31 {Level2}

2nd Half Hedges :
Clemson +1 {Level1}-was a hedge on my teaser but not a good one value wise
Mich State +7 -120 {Level2}

Good Luck ...cliffs note available upon request ..:cheers:
 
Well down 10-7 at half the bearcats missed a FG from 44 yds which I think they had hit like 13 straight but more importantly Cincy tried to run it on 3rd and 1 at the 24 and lost 3 yards pushing the attempt back . Then 1st goal at the VT 8 yd line they dont run it and have an incompletion then INT ....so they stalled 2 drives somewhat IMO to poor playcalling . If I am CIncy I am throwing the ball 80% of the time only running to setup the pass and not when its short yardage ..like Pike drop back and if he has to tuck it and run so be it ..VaTech also missed a FG which wasnt suprising given their issues ...Cincy kicker had rebounded since being benched earlier in the season.......

2nd H ?
Over 20.5 -120 {Level3} -
The ball is being moved on both sides they scored 17 and lost out on at least 9 points probably 13 in the 1st H ....
CIncy -1.5 +100 {Level2}

Expected that VaTech would win a half and was hoping it was by a FG , 4 pt sor a TIE ...so sticking to my guns just a tad better execution from Cincy ...

:cheers:
 
i hear yah, cant see VT stopping pike and friends...at least 10 forgone points in the 1h for the bearcats
 
:cheers:

CIncy 6 possessions :

-TD
-Punt went 3 and out but dont understand running it on 3rd and 4 , bad call IMO
-FG Miss try to run it on 3rd and 1 and lose couple yards from the 21,22yd line
-Punt stuck with a 10 yd penalty on1st and 38 stalled this possession
-Punt , get the ball at the VT 45 and pass 3 times , again WTF ? here is where you should take a chance and run the ball with good field position as it could be 4 down territory ...again hate the playcalling
-INT throws an INT on 2nd goal from the 8 of VaTech......

Lots of missed opps and questionable play calling .....TD drive ran on both 1st downs and passed on the others ...

Pike 12/21 197 yds TD and costly INT ....use what works IMO...

 
Trueblue said:
i hear yah, cant see VT stopping pike and friends...at least 10 forgone points in the 1h for the bearcats
Click to expand...

All about execution with CIncy in the 2nd H ...

1 TD in 6 possessions , 1 missed FG but also a stalled drive because of failure to convert 3rd and long 2 yards , Punt because they ran on 3rd and 4 deep in their territory , Punt because they had a holding penalty on 1st down atthe Cincy 38 they couldnt overcome getting 14 of the 20yards only , throw 3 straight passes when they start on the VaTech 45 which leads to a punt and then get picked inside the VT 8 yd line !

Good Luck True !:cheers:
 
Thats 2 straight possessions the CIncy defense failed to contain Taylor on 3rd down. Hate to see that opp wasted ...

Anway POUNDING OLE MISS tmrw +4.5 and higher hopefully and the ML small.....:cheers:Some thoughts in JP's thread ...:shake:
 
giggity said:
Well the defense didn't start out executing...
Click to expand...

I'll take the FG though . Once the convert 3rd and 10 backed up its like automatic points in football . Wish I could do a statisical study on how many times when a team converts a long 3rd down backed up they score it would be astonishing to some the connection ...anyway...

:shake:
 
Well take a beating because I had no idea how terrible the Cincy game plan was going to be here. 1st goal at the 4 again we throw twice and then get 3 yards on 3rd down and that was after getting 5 yds on 1st down and throwing twice the set of downs before they converted to get to 1st and . Whoever is responsible just no commonsense ! I dont mind losing but have a fucking clue on when to run and when to throw . Is it not obvious you are not going to pickup short yardage conversions vs VaTech? Is it not obvious then when you are possible in 4 down territory if you pickup 5 yds on 1st down its not a a bad idea to run it again on 2nd when yoy havent done it all night !

3 Ints for Pike and 17 points on the sideline at least maybe 21 if they had a clue on the 1st 3rd and 1 / or 2 situation where they lost yards ......

...frustrated
 
Cincy doesnt deserve to WIN but any stretch but put a team in the same situations they had and it should 28-13 rather down 20-7 ....even the idiot Beamer didnt go for 2 to make it 14 ....
 
CapTwo said:
pike should not be allowed to throw on the run

this guy forces more balls then favre. unreal
Click to expand...

I am just erasing this from my mind . Cincy plays a sound , fundamental game they beat VaTech . VaTech did exactly what I am sure most of expected and simply didnt beat themselves and grabbed the momentum right before half when after Pike throws a pick when they should be running the ball inisde the 10 , Taylor scrambles on 3rd down and gets into FG range . I just hate stupidity its my pet peave ...

Anyway Brian Kelly lost my respect . :shake:

 
horrible game by Cincy...from playcalling to execution

grabbed Tech at HT so good way to end it

GL tomm mike
 
SportsNut said:
I am just erasing this from my mind . Cincy plays a sound , fundamental game they beat VaTech . VaTech did exactly what I am sure most of expected and simply didnt beat themselves and grabbed the momentum right before half when after Pike throws a pick when they should be running the ball inisde the 10 , Taylor scrambles on 3rd down and gets into FG range . I just hate stupidity its my pet peave ...

Anyway Brian Kelly lost my respect . :shake:
Click to expand...


:shake:

Yep. they threw all 3 fucking times inside the ten on that possession, did not run it once. playcalling was absurd.
 
Friday Plays :

Hopefully I get this straight and dont make anymore foolish decisions.

1st Quarter Ole Miss +0.5 -115(160)
1st Half Ole Miss +3 -115(200)
Full Game Ole Miss +4.5(400)
Full Game ML Ole Miss +165 (40)
Over 30.5 Ole Miss Team Total -115(80)
Under 35 Texas Tech Team Total -115(Lean only )

Getting tired of typing how and what I play . So very simple terms : I bet in increments of 40 and up to 400 . Basically 1 to 10 scale and leave it at that ....its still the same deal essentially in terms of % bankroll . Its 0.4 to 4.0% ..

The Lines and Amounts are NOT locked in . I expect Ole Miss to go higher so trying to get better but will be watching closely and wont let these numbers slip away.

looking at 1 teaser with Ole Miss , probably Kentucky but ECU is interesting as would be over 31 , Bama PK and Utah+19.5 also interesting...just one ....

The only part that is subject to change size wise would be the 1st Q and 1st Half plays

Good Luck ...sorry for the shitfest ...
Good Luck .
 
Last edited:
1st Quarter Ole Miss +0.5 -115(160)
1st Half Ole Miss +3 -115(200)
Full Game Ole Miss +4.5(400)
Full Game ML Ole Miss +165 (40)
Over 30.5 Ole Miss Team Total -115(80)
Under 35 Texas Tech Team Total -115(Lean)
Over 65 -120 Ole Miss (80) may just be a middle

Getting tired of typing how and what I play . So very simple terms : I bet in increments of 40 and up to 400 . Basically 1 to 10 scale and leave it at that ....its still the same deal essentially in terms of % bankroll . Its 0.4 to 4.0% ..the bold amounts mean th eplay is locked IN..

The Lines and Amounts are NOT all locked in . I expect Ole Miss to go higher so trying to get better but will be watching closely and wont let these numbers slip away..

Texas Tech has failed last 3 Bowl Games as favs to UVA , Minny , Bama (SU loss laying -3) , plus Cal (were +11)and Navy they lost all 5 1st Quarters ..

0-0 vs Navy
14-7 vs Cal
7-3 vs Bama
14-0 vs Minny
9-7 vs UVA
Scores after 1 Quarter we can see the TT offense starting slow , last 3 years they did not cover the chalk and last 3 years they also lost vs the 1st H spread...

Still they have experience and Ole Miss 1st Bowl ..but besides the win @ FLA the 2nd H @ Bama so telling in my eyes . DOwn 24-3 look at how the offense responded cutting i 24-10 on the opening posession and putting the prssure on Bama from then on ...44 plasy 266yds ...17 pts , a fumble , and 2 turnover on downs all inside the Bama 45...one iside the Bama 25..

Snead in 5 away games 11 TDs and 4 Ints @ WF , @ FLA , @ BAMA , @ Arkansas (Nutt's old school) and @ LSU ....

ECU vs Kentucky at 5 PM:

Defense , Defense , Defense ..?? I know ECU won C-USA but FG favs for Kentucky ? They had 7 turnovers off Tulsa ! Okay Cobb is out so what ? Hartline started the 1st 8 games anyway .. Each team avgs less then 300 yards of offense on the road and Kentucky is more like 250 but they did have a tough travel slate......Neither scored much away more excusable for SEC Kentucky although @ So Miss @ UCF tough defenses but only 17 @ UAB and less then 250 yards in the title game ?

Under 41 , 1st Q Under , 1st H Under and maybe Kentucky +3.5 ???

Ole Miss Notes : Really think the las 3 games were near flawless despite competion being soft ...

Ole Miss 59, Louisiana-Monroe 0—The Rebels played possibly their most complete game of the season, rushing for 350 yards and holding Louisiana-Monroe to just 131 yards of offense. The win makes Mississippi bowl-eligible for the first time since 2003-04.

Ole Miss 31, LSU 13—The Rebels made a strong case for the Cotton Bowl, whipping No. 18 LSU in Baton Rouge for their fourth straight win. Jevan Snead played a mistake-free game, throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns, and the Rebels held the Tigers to 215 total yards. Ole Miss had four sacks and stuffed LSU’s vaunted ground game.

Ole Miss 45, Mississippi State 0—The Rebels racked up an incredible 11 sacks, three by defensive end Greg Hardy and two by tackle Peria Jerry, and ended the tenure of Bulldogs coach Sylvester Croom. It was 31-0 at halftime. Mississippi State advanced past midfield only twice. Rebels quarterback Jevan Snead threw for 213 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception.

Notes, Quotes


Scouting The Offense: The Rebels achieved tremendous balance this season in putting up nearly 31 points per game. They rank third in rushing, fourth in passing, in the SEC. Sophomore QB Jevan Snead has matured into an efficient leader who doesn’t try to force things, and coach Houston Nutt is adept at using all his weapons, such as speedy WR Dexter McCluster and WR Shay Hodge. RB Cordera Eason came on strong the last month of the season.

Scouting The Defense: The Rebels give up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. This unit ranks fourth in the SEC, giving up 17.8 points per game, and is the most improved defense in the conference. It all starts with DT Peria Jerry, who has won SEC defensive honors four times this year. S Jamarca Sanford leads an underrated secondary.

Matchup To Watch: It will be interesting to see how Texas Tech’s high-powered offense fares against a quality SEC defense. The Red Raiders average 44.5 points per game. Ole Miss is allowing just 17.75 points per game.
Another key matchup will be Texas Tech’s offensive line with its extra-wide splits against Ole Miss’ pass rush specialist Greg Hardy. The Red Raiders are fifth-best in the nation in sacks allowed. If the Rebels can’t find ways to get to Harrell, Ole Miss better be ready to score some points if it wants to keep up on the scoreboard.

Quote To Note: “Under Houston Nutt’s leadership, the Ole Miss football program is returning to a position of national prominence. The quality of his assistant coaches and his ability to motivate are essential tools to having a successful program. Over the next few years, we expect to see significant results from the foundation which has been built this year.”—Ole Miss athletics director Pete Boone, who gave Rebels coach Houston Nutt an extension soon after Nutt was linked to the Auburn coaching search.


Strategy And Personnel


WHY YOU SHOULD WATCH THE AT&T COTTON BOWL: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss, Dallas, Jan. 2—Contrasting styles will collide when the Rebels face Ole Miss in one of the better bowl matchups. Led by the prolific quarterback-receiver combination of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the Red Raiders can put up points in bunches. But Ole Miss has a talented defense that slowed down Florida’s powerful offense.

Players To Watch:

LT Michael Oher—The senior is one of three finalists for the Outland Trophy and has been named an All-American by the American Football Coaches Association. He anchors an offensive line that helped the Rebels average 183.4 rushing yards per game. His 46 starts rank third in the SEC among active players.

QB Jevan Snead—The sophomore transfer from Texas might be the biggest reason for the Rebels’ offensive turnaround. He ranks third in the SEC with 206 passing yards per game, and has thrown 23 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Snead excels at buying time to throw downfield, and he’s done a much better job lately of avoiding interceptions.

DT Peria Jerry—The senior won SEC defensive honors four times. He leads the SEC in tackles for losses with 17 and is tied for fifth in the SEC with six sacks. He’s the captain and unquestioned leader of a unit that allows just 85 rushing yards per game.

WR Shay Hodge—The Ole Miss offense doesn’t have a single go-to guy, but Hodge has emerged as QB Jevan Snead’s favorite target. The junior has 42 catches for 676 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging a hefty 16.1 yards per grab.

Ole Miss miffed at the underdog label
http://www.sunherald.com/sports/story/1042491.html

http://www.sunherald.com/237/story/1041947.html

http://www.sunherald.com/237/story/1037456.html

http://www.sunherald.com/237/story/1042700.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...tories/010209dnspocottongameday.2cb1eac5.html
some TT stuff from dallas paper







 
GL today Nut. Always have respected your writeups/opinions dating back to the Co**rs days....
 
Cotton Bowl :

Think we all agree the Cotton Bowl got a great matchup for the last one ever before moving to the new Dallas Cowboys billion dollar home . Yanks arent the only BIG spenders !

My main concern is the experience factor here in terms of playing in a BOWL. Obviously none of the Ole Miss kids have played in one and Texas Tech has made it an annual event . However what should keep it just another game is the SEC schedule Ole Miss plays and having a veteran coach . I know Nutt's Bowl record is not flaterring and believe last year he didnt coach the Hogs in their blowout loss but as he said it's not like We were playing the Sister's of the Poor in those games . Which Texas Tech has been favored last 3 Bowls/seasons and despite being 2-1 is 0-3 ATS with all 3 games decided by a FG . Also Tech was only 6-6 ATS despite being 11-1

As I mentioned the past 5 YEARS there seems to be alot of credence to the slow start theory for Texas Tech due to the layoff . They are 0-4-1 SU Last 5 1st Quarters starting with a 0-0 TIE after 1Quarter vs Navy and never scored more then a TD . They are 0-5 ATS in that span. With the DATA posted a few windows back ...

Obvious keys Ole Miss pass rush vs the Tech OL which gets a ton of mention for the LOW total of sacks allowed . Few mention that they allowed 8 sacks late in the year as the competition improved 3 vs Texas , 2 @ OU , 3 vs Baylor. Point is while its very good the reputation is based largely on playing inferior talent with simply bigger OL. Which getting back to the point is needed to slow and frustrate Harrel and aide the secondary . For Ole Miss ball control offense is clearly key to keep TT offense on the sidelines but also to stay away from the early season turnovers . Which Nutt has said Sneed has learned he doesnt have to do it all himself which is probably illustrated by their low point vs Vandy with 7 turnovers and 4 INTs for Sneed. Love Sneed' s road splits and Ole Miss road SOS .

I hope the game is advertised for all of us to enjoy like Boise State and OU few years back.

Bottomline is Ole Miss is so under the radar thats it hard to peg a value for this team especially with the early inconsistent play. One thing is when you look at what appears to their bad games its clearly about turnovers ...My feeling is Ole Miss is very close rated to Alabama somewhere around 4 pts worse . While IMO Texas Tech is still much weaker then Texas (at least a TD )and OU ( at least 10 pts worse on a neutral field hypothetically)..

Baylor did well vs the TT defense and granted hangover is a clear possibility but they punted ONCE. When they were up 28-21 near the end of the 3rd on a drive they still had 33 yards accumulated on , then an INT in the 4th Q and TOD...

The Texas Tech offense has struggled in their terms on grass and on the road or vs solid defenses . They were losing @ TExas A&M 23-20 at half but won 23-2 in the 2nd H which I didnt mention. Only led 14-9 @ Half vs nevada with a TD on a punt return .. which Nevada missed a FG , settled for FGs twice inside the TT 10 and had a turnover near the TT 10 yd line...oh TT missed a FG just before half..

They had that 3 game stretch starting with @KU and ending vs Okie State where they gained attentioned. The KU game was 14-14 after 1 quarter then Kansas just fell to pieces including 3 2nd Q INTs by Reesing playing the worst game of his career. TT poured it on like they do when they have a wounded opponent and scored 49 straight but something 28 of 35 at one point minust the 1st and last TT TD was started in Kansas territory . So give TT momentum and put the ball on KU 4 of 5 possessions and what would one expect to happen ? Texas they were outplayed in the 2nd H and Crabtree made a great play to win it . They played home again after that and steamrolled Okie State as -3 pt favs but just to show you how soft that number is a week after OU smoked TT as 7 pt favs they were -10 pt favs @ Okie State and covered...remember @ Okie State not hosting..

I made this game Texas Tech -1.5 but even a PKem not sure I would see value in texas tech . Think the line should be anywhere from PK to -2 for Tech not where it opened or stands ....

I do not believe Texas Tech is unmotivated or flat by any stretch . Having a ton of seniors playing their last game including Harrel and probably Soph Crabtree should be huge . I just think if Ole Miss avoids costly mistakes ( like uhm Cincy !) they are the better team .....

Played:
1st Quarter Ole Miss +0.5 -115 (200)
1st Half Ole Miss +3 -115 (240)
Full Game Ole Miss +4.5 (400)
Full Game ML Ole Miss +165 (40)

Over 30.5 Ole Miss Team Total -115 (80)
Under 35 Texas Tech Team Total -115 (Lean)
Over 65 -120 Ole Miss (80) may just be a middle attempt
Ole Miss +14.5 , Bama +0.5 and Under 52 Kentucky(Teaser -120)(120)
Ole Miss +14.5 , Bama +1.5 and Under 52 Kentucky(Teaser -120) (80)
Utah +19.5 , Under 55.5 Bama ,Ole Miss +14.5 (80)
Bama +0.5 , Under 55.5 Bama, Ole Miss +14.5 (40)

The 1st Teaser is the same just played some more when it hit 8.5 ..so all the above is locked in now

So very simple terms : I bet in increments of 40 and up to 400 . Basically 1 to 10 scale and leave it at that ....its still the same deal essentially in terms of % bankroll as previously posted (0.5% to 2.5% in 50 buck intervals). Its 0.4 to 4.0% ..the bold amounts mean the play is locked IN.

Leans:
On the fence but leaning Kentucky +3.5 but like the fact ECU knows how to win . However CUSA team as FG favs vs a very good and hopefully now healthy Kentucky defense is why I lean ...
Under 42 + Kentucky and ECU..
Under 45.5 Bama -Thinking 23-17 game
Utah +10 ++ (but now down to 8.5 and +9) - Like Bama to win but they just have not been great as chalk and I could see Saban be more then happy by winning by 4-7 pts and not taking any late chances ..perhaps 4th Q under ...Utah has played well since the TCU win but vs BYU they thrived in the 4th Q and thanks to 5 Impressive picks against Hall but were gashed on the ground allowing over 200 yards..something even TCU did well against them and those were home but granted they get a break with Bama losing stud OL . Rodgers had 25c 102 yds as well for Oregon State . At Michigan while it was the opener alot setting for FGs which I am hoping for each side...

Good Luck :cheers:
 
Against you early, SN, but you knew that.

How about you win all your plays except the full game one. Then we could both be happy.

Happy New Year.

=)
 
GL today SN...with you on the Rebs. Have been great ATS as Dogs this year and surprised that Sneed's homecoming has been largely under the radar:

The Jan. 2 Cotton Bowl game between Texas Tech and Mississippi means Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Sneed gets to come home.

A prep All-American at Stephenville High School, Snead played the 2006 season as a backup to Colt McCoy at Texas. In limited duty that season, Snead completed 26-of-49 passes for 371 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.

Snead, however, transferred to Ole Miss in January of 2007, then sat out the '07 season because of the NCAA transfer rule. This year Snead completed 166-of-298 passes for 2,470 yards, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while guiding the 20th-ranked Rebels to an 8-4 record.

Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt knows how much playing in the Cotton Bowl means to Snead. Thus, when Nutt told his team Sunday which bowl game they would be playing in, his eyes were trained squarely on Snead.

"I looked at him first when we made the announcement and he almost jumped out of his chair,'' Nutt said. "He's a pretty cool guy, but I could tell inside he was ready to do flips he was so excited.

"That was the one (bowl) game that he wanted and I'm glad he gets to go back there. He has a lot of family there.''
 
Joe Public said:
Against you early, SN, but you knew that.

How about you win all your plays except the full game one. Then we could both be happy.

Happy New Year.

=)
Click to expand...

Thanks JP and Hapy New Year as well. Well if I am going to lose the full game it would be nice to at least win the 1st H , 1st Q and have a chance to middle ...so could live with that scenario as opposed to being 0-3 ...lol...thinking about playing TT 4th Quarter :shake:
 
HereWeGo said:
GL today SN...with you on the Rebs. Have been great ATS as Dogs this year and surprised that Sneed's homecoming has been largely under the radar:

The Jan. 2 Cotton Bowl game between Texas Tech and Mississippi means Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Sneed gets to come home.

A prep All-American at Stephenville High School, Snead played the 2006 season as a backup to Colt McCoy at Texas. In limited duty that season, Snead completed 26-of-49 passes for 371 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.

Snead, however, transferred to Ole Miss in January of 2007, then sat out the '07 season because of the NCAA transfer rule. This year Snead completed 166-of-298 passes for 2,470 yards, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while guiding the 20th-ranked Rebels to an 8-4 record.

Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt knows how much playing in the Cotton Bowl means to Snead. Thus, when Nutt told his team Sunday which bowl game they would be playing in, his eyes were trained squarely on Snead.

"I looked at him first when we made the announcement and he almost jumped out of his chair,'' Nutt said. "He's a pretty cool guy, but I could tell inside he was ready to do flips he was so excited.

"That was the one (bowl) game that he wanted and I'm glad he gets to go back there. He has a lot of family there.''
Click to expand...

Relatively no mention that Sneed went to Texas and transferred anywhere . As slow as TT has started one scare point is clearly Sneed being nervous early or putting pressure on himself and forcing plays...

Glad to read CKR say his office needs Ole Miss as well as it means he has written a ton of TT tickets and the line dropping doesnt hurt..
:cheers:
 
Thanks for the Ole Miss write-up

Glad I waited on the 1st half, almost took it last night at +2.5 (-105) but waited and got +3 (-115)!

Lets get this early game
 
NUT,

Question is does the young QB press to much in front of his own family?
 
Capt. Slap said:
Thanks for the Ole Miss write-up

Glad I waited on the 1st half, almost took it last night at +2.5 (-105) but waited and got +3 (-115)!

Lets get this early game
Click to expand...

Sounds good Cap would love to quickly erase the last 2 mistakes yesterday !!

Every book moves line so differently and alot when lines drop dont even bother to do much more then adjust the vig . Saw a bunch of books just hold the 3 and other offer -2.5 with -120ish vig...Its actually good to learn the tendencies of how a book will move something that dawned on me after years of line hawking .

:cheers:
 
ontime23 said:
NUT,

Question is does the young QB press to much in front of his own family?
Click to expand...

I wish I could anwser that. Certainly could happen but he isnt a true Soph either so he should be close to 21 and hopefully a tad mature at this point . I am thinking the games @ Wake Forest , @ FLA , @ Bama , @ LSU are pretty big tests and outside of bama the offense never started slow .

Probably will know relatively quickly . The quicker something good happens and he can relax the quicker it becomes just another game . I would assume the problem would arise if the offense struggled and was off the field quickly in the 1st possession or two then it could manifest into pressure.....

Hoping not and thinking the SEC slate has prepared him. The easiest game they played of 5 away was @ Arkansas who was down this year but also Nutt's former school . Had to be some pressure felt that one as well ..WF , FLA , BAma , LSU some of the best defensive talent one could see and think his road splits were something like 11 TDs to 4 INTs...an INT per game until none @ LSU his last and at least 2 TDs per except 1 @ Bama...

:cheers:GL
 
Played:
1st Quarter Ole Miss +0.5 -115 (200)
1st Half Ole Miss +3 -115 (240)
Full Game Ole Miss +4.5 (400)
Full Game ML Ole Miss +165 (40)

Over 30.5 Ole Miss Team Total -115 (80)
Under 35.5 Texas Tech Team Total -115 (40)
Over 65 -120 Ole Miss (80)using a TEASER as my middle: Ole Miss +10/72.5UND
Ole Miss +14.5 , Bama +0.5 and Under 52 Kentucky(Teaser -120)(120)
Ole Miss +14.5 , Bama +1.5 and Under 52 Kentucky(Teaser -120) (80)
Utah +19.5 , Under 55.5 Bama ,Ole Miss +14.5 (80)
Bama +0.5 , Under 55.5 Bama, Ole Miss +14.5 (40)

The 1st Teaser is the same just played some more when it hit 8.5 ..so all the above is locked in now

So very simple terms : I bet in increments of 40 and up to 400 . Basically 1 to 10 scale and leave it at that ....its still the same deal essentially in terms of % bankroll as previously posted (0.5% to 2.5% in 50 buck intervals). Its 0.4 to 4.0% ..the bold amounts mean the play is locked IN.

Leans:
On the fence but leaning Kentucky +3.5 but like the fact ECU knows how to win . However CUSA team as FG favs vs a very good and hopefully now healthy Kentucky defense is why I lean ...
Under 42 + Kentucky and ECU..
Under 45.5 Bama -Thinking 23-17 game
Utah +10 ++ (but now down to 8.5 and +9) - Like Bama to win but they just have not been great as chalk and I could see Saban be more then happy by winning by 4-7 pts and not taking any late chances ..perhaps 4th Q under ...Utah has played well since the TCU win but vs BYU they thrived in the 4th Q and thanks to 5 Impressive picks against Hall but were gashed on the ground allowing over 200 yards..something even TCU did well against them and those were home but granted they get a break with Bama losing stud OL . Rodgers had 25c 102 yds as well for Oregon State . At Michigan while it was the opener alot setting for FGs which I am hoping for each side...

Good Luck :cheers:

All set now. Hedged the total with a teaser wish I had +10.5 though 96 for 80bux . Played the TT team total UND 35.5 ...:shake: <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
2nd Half Cotton Bowl :

Ole Miss +3 -120 (280)
Under 34.5 -110 (40)
Parlay +3 -120 / Under 34.5 (40)

- As I said experience was a big concern and Ole Miss turnovers especially since TTech thrives on short fields . Well just when I started to think Ole Miss was going to win my 1st Q play they fumble on 1st and 10 at the TT 35 . Which of course is a momentum flip and which of course TT fairly quickly scored a TD. Then the Rebels get the ball back start moving it to about midfield and PICK 6. Unmost unbelievable to be honest .

Anyway Ole Miss keep their heads and got a TD the next possession and since then have played well . Just 1 TD drive IMO for the TT offense and it was a fight to get those yards and points ...

Ole Miss ran more plays thanks to the 2 turnovers but also accumulated double the yards....

Staying the course ...Lean Under but not sure I play it ...GL:cheers:
 
Last edited:
SportsNut said:
2nd Half Cotton Bowl :

Ole Miss +3 -120 (240)

- As I said experience was a big concern and Ole Miss turnovers especially since TTech thrives on short fields . Well just when I started to think Ole Miss was going to win my 1st Q play they fumble on 1st and 10 at the TT 35 . Which of course is a momentum flip and which of course TT fairly quickly scored a TD. Then the Rebels get the ball back start moving it to about midfield and PICK 6. Unmost unbelievable to be honest .

Anyway Ole Miss keep their heads and got a TD the next possession and since then have played well . Just 1 TD drive IMO for the TT offense and it was a fight to get those yards and points ...

Ole Miss ran more plays thanks to the 2 turnovers but also accumulated double the yards....

Staying the course ...Lean Under but not sure I play it ...GL:cheers:
Click to expand...

I only have +1.5...love your thinking here
 
HereWeGo said:
We barely got that 1H Nut....let's get the full game now
Click to expand...

Yeah that was to close. I basically expected at best a FG and didnt expect anything to be honest and the Graham goes and turns on the motor....

More then happy with the 1st Half so far . Take away the Gift wrapped 14 TT recieved and this is at least 28-7 ...Ole Miss creating momentum and thats something TT until the last play has not done on offense ...Ole Miss 5/8 on 3rd down and 2/2 on 4th . Snead making some big plays in 3rd and longs ...:shake:

GL

 
Streakin said:
I only have +1.5...love your thinking here
Click to expand...

Its really all the same . Anything with a ++spread is essentially betting Miss to win ..I have +3 what does that mean ? I win if Miss loses by 1 pt and you dont .lol...hope its not that close late ...insignificant obviously which is why books use the lower line..get more vig ...I know you know all that but just saying in case anyone pondered the difference ..clearly not much bewteen 1.5 and 3 ..given a choice we all take the +3 but wouldnt change my amount...

Good Luck to us Streakin..:cheers:

Bodog has -4 +115/ -135 ...so plus money for a -180 ML favorite ?
 
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