12.31 Bowls - 1.08 Bowls

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
My '08 bowl season in a NUT shell.....

Wake Forest -2.5 {Level2}
2ndH WF -3 {Level3}
2nd H Over 23 WF {Level1}

Col State +3.5 -120{Level3}
2nd H Col St +0.5 {Level2}
2nd H Over 31 {Level1}
Over 61 Col State {Level2} (forgot to post though before kick mentioned at halftime)

Memphis +11.5 {Level1}
Memphis +11-120 {Level1}
2ndH Memphis +3.5 {Level1}
Under 28 1st H {level1}
Under 57 {Level2}
2nd H Under 28 {Level1}

Zona -2.5-120 {Level3}
1stH Zona -2.5 -105{Level3}
1st H Under 31 {Level1}
3rdQ Zona -0.5 {Level1}
2nd H hedge BYU +0.5 {Level1} Hedge to full game play
(all 12/20 games were in the ingame and some in VKs thread)

1st H So Miss +3 -115 {Level2}
So Miss +4.5 {Level1}
Under 55 {Level2}
Teaser : So Miss and Under {Level1}
2nd H So Miss +3 {Level3}
2nd H Under 28-120 {Level1}
2nd H Parlay SMiss and Und {level1}essentially pays a Level2 play
(all in Kyle's thread)

Notre Dame ML -120{Level3}
Notre Dame ML -110{Level3}
(in Kyle's thread but only listed as POUNDED Notre Dame)

FAU +7.5 -116 avg price for the hook buy {Level3}
1st H FAU +4 +100 {Level1}
2nd H FAU +4.5 {Level1}
2nd H Over 34 {Level1}
2nd H Parlay FAU & over {Level1}

WVU ML -128 avg price {Level3}
Under 48 -120 {level2}
1st Q WVU -0.5 +120 {Level1}
TT under 22.5 UNC {Level1}
1st H under 23.5 {Level1}
2nd H Under 26 UNC {Level2}
2nd H WVU -2.5 {Level1}

Over 50.5 -120 Wisky {Level3}
1st H Over 26 Wisky {Level1}
Wisky 1st H +3.5 {Level2}
2nd H Over 23.5 FSU {Level2}
Wisky 2nd H +1 {Level1}

Teaser : Cal PK , SD +1 , under Cal {Level 2}
1st H Under 24.5 {Level1}
Miami +10.5 -120 {Level1}
4th Q Miami +0.5 {level1}

Northern Ill +3.5 -125 {Level3}
1st Q under 9.5 +100 {Level2}
TT Under 24 LaTech {Level2}
Teasers :
NIU +8.5 & Under 52.5 {Level2}
NIU +8.5 & SD Chargers -1 {Level2}
Under 47.5 -125 {Level1}
1st H Under 23.5 {Level1}
1st H NIU +0.5 {Level2}
2nd Q Under 13.5 {Level1}

2nd H over 28.5 Rutgers {Level2}

Under 67 {Level 3}
Under 26 Northwestern TT{Level2}
3rd Q Missouri -3 -120 {Level1}
Mizzou -13-120 {Level2}
Mizzou -13-130 {Level1}
Teasers : Mizz -14 , Nevada -2.5 and Houston -3.5 {Level2}
2nd Half: Mizzou -9 {Level2}

Nevada ML -135 {Level2 }
Over 60 {Level3}
1st H over 30 {Level1}
TT Over Nevada 31 -120 {Level1}
TT Over Maryland 28 -130 {Level1}
Teaser :{Level1}
Maryland +12.5 , Oregon +11 and Over 51 Maryland
Prop{Level1}
1st Score Maryland +100
2nd H:Nevada -1.5-120 {Level2}
2nd H Over 29 {Level1}

Oregon +1 and PK -110 split {Level3}
1st H Over 37.5 {Level1}
TT Under 39 Okie State {Level1}
2nd H :Oregon -3 {Level3}
2nd H: Over35.5 {Level2}

Western Michigan +3.5 -125 {Level3}
Western +3-125{Level1}
1st H Wester Mich +1 {Level2}
1st H +0.5 {Level1}
1st H Over 37 {Level2}
Teaser :
WMU +8.5 and Oregon +7 {Level1}
WMU +12.5 , Oregon +11 , Over 64 WMU {Level2}
2nd H:Over 32.5 WMU {Level2}
2nd H :WMU -2.5 {Level3}

Red are the losses and Black the wins.

54-33

Pending : Houston -2.5 {Level3}

Level 3 Plays : 14-3 (+34.55 / -9.00)
Level 2 Plays : 15-13 (+18.75 /-19.62)
Level 1 Plays: 25-17 (+13.40 / -9.65)

66.70 -38.27 = +27.43



Going to use this for the 2nd Part of the Bowl Season .:cheers:Starting tmrw though
 
12.31 Leans :

Houston is a play already ...

Rodgers status for Oregon State ?? Strong Under lean regardless

Over Vandy on the fence for a side lean Vandy but 1-6 Last 7 ?

Under Kansas and Minny +9 soft leans

Under LSU and LSU

GLuck . Thoughts trmw :cheers:






 
Kansas Notes:

CB Thornton is OUT and did not travel .

RB Sharp has the FLU , did not practice Monday but acccording to Mangino will not miss the game . Which is nice and all but thats a scare for sure having Sharp with the FLU IMO...

Anyway scratch that under lean now lean Over

 
:hang: LSU and Unders



Come on SN you are better than that.
LSU sucks this year! Ride the ACC train!


Looking forward to your writeups... :shake:
 
Armed Forces Bowl

So why Houston ?

First , clearly they get a chance at redemption vs AF . When they first met it was the distraction of the Hurricane hitting Texas which led them to moving the game @ SMU . This one is at TCU . The game was played early in the morning think 10 AM kick , with hardly any fans (player from AF said it had the feel of a JV HS game) , and in wind and rain(obviously tougher for the pass offense). Air Force had a 24 pt lead near the end of 3rd Q which like so many times this year they rallied from but here fell 3 pts short . Main difference for AF now is with Jefferson at QB they have some sort of a passing game . Key because vs Houston they had ZERO yds passing ! Still they went 5-2 L7 but beat 3 terrible offenses , won by 1 @ UNLV and won vs CSU when the Rams self destructed ...which were followed by getting beatdown by BYU and @ TCU ...funny they play @ TCU again..

Second , the pass defense of AF . They played 12 games and played vs bad offenses and/or backup QBs. SDST , NM , Wyoming , Southern Utah , and Army . So the other 7 games only 1 team had LESS then 28 points and that was CSU in a home game but CSU had 17 points at half before going cold . The pass defense as I mentioned has been soft .

@Dalton 21/27 322yds 2 TDs
@Hall 28/37 354 yds 2 TDs INT
Farris 19/36 251 yds TD 2INTs
@Clayton 19/30 251yds 2 TDs
Johnson 16/23 243yds TD INT
@Keenum 34/57 362 4TDs INT

Allowed 31 ppg , 1783yds in 6 games on 210 attempts (8.5YPA) , 12TDs vs 5 INTs

The 7th game was Navy who we know doesnt throw the ball often (1/2 28yds) .

The CSU game is so misleading . They had a delay of game penalty on a 4th and goal 1yd TD run which took the points off the board and left them to kick a FG just before HALF . So rather the 21-21 at half it was 21-17. Then opening CSU possession after HALF Farris is picked off in the AF red zone ending a drive that could have given them the lead and amassed over 60 yards . The next possession was also a Farris an INT but deep in his territoty setting up a quick AF TD. Next possession 12 plays 50 yds and stopped on downs at the AF 30. Then in the 4th Q they had 1 POSSESSION and it was a punt which AF grinded the last 10 minutes of the clock. So CSU self destructed ..

So outside f the 5 bad teams AF played which they went 5-0 the AF wins were by 1 @ UNLV who had a terrible defense and was banged up , 3 on the neutral field by Houston and the game at home vs CSU which they self destructed ....one could say that Houston lost @ CSU but they never got to go home after the AF game staying in Dallas for a week ...

really how can I weigh wins @ Wyoming 23-3 , @ Army 16-7 , @ NM without Porterie 23-10 , @SDST 35-10 without the starting QB and home vs Southern Utah 41-7...

Seeing AF a second time should help the defense although the youngsters at QB and RB have provided a big play boost it didnt have in the 1st meeting.

Really we have HOUSTON with a solid senior / veteran presence who is making its 4th straight bowl and is 0-3 . To me thats double motivation bewteen the earlier loss and avoiding the embarrasment of being 0-4 in your classes BOWLS . Houston has the 1st year coach as well which a BOWL win is always significant for them but especially since Houston has dropped 8 straight BOWLS since 1980 . AF has some key players who are freshman and this amounts to a road game. Rice kicking WMU in the ass IMO lessens the Houston loss @ Rice to end the year. The Cougars are somewhat unpredictable rarely playing 4 quarters of football so keep that in mind. They do have atendency to start real slow which could mean HALFTIME value or if they start quick so possible middle opp with AF ...

Play : (Level3 =2.5% of roll) so double play here
Houston -2.5 {Level3}
Houston ML -160 {Level3}
Lean OVER and Houston TT Over .

Just think this is a SUPER BOWL type game for Houston and its program looking at everything and playing in state...

Good Luck. Hopefully start the day off well .....:cheers:









 
AtlHawks said:
:hang: LSU and Unders



Come on SN you are better than that.
LSU sucks this year! Ride the ACC train!


Looking forward to your writeups... :shake:
Click to expand...

Like the UNDER for sure but forgot LSU could be starting Jefferson not Hatch. No Hatch no play on LSU especially in ATL ....:shake::cheers:
 
Rogers ain't going to play Nut, either one of them...respectfully disagree on the Houston play...GL tomorrow...
 
I thought Houston had just an unfair season in alot of respects . They play the opener at the endof August and play just 1 home game in all of Sept and Oct . With a new coach as well. When the season is over 2 months old and you have strecth of 6 games in 7 away hard for me to say rest and practice wasnt the best thing possible for these kids...
 
Have Houston as a 4 unit play.. May bump to 6... Right side IMO.. Houston program has lost something like 9 straight Bowls.. Many of those they were simply outclassed.. This one they are not.. Like ND , they break the streak this year... Few additional thoughts over in my thread on this one.. Like it... GL today NUT..... The next two days is it possible the NUT makes 100 plays!!;)
 
Thanks Tide and GL to us .

3rd Long : Hopefully second time is the charm. :cheers:

Thanks TeeDub. Going to read it now . The 1980 factor looms large ...:cheers:GL

Thanks HawaiiGuy ...I hope so ...Good Luck:cheers:
 
Added:
Houston TT Over 34.5 -115 {Level1}

Lean over but its also sort of a hedge because I cant see Houston failing to crack 31+ points here . Maybe AF TT Over is a good hedge as well rather then the game over ...

Not sure I add anything else here because of Houston's slow start tendecies . I know its not saying much but the Houston ML is obviously one of my favorite bowl plays. Now about -175 its sill not that pricey ...:cheers:

 
air force secondary has looked very vulnerable most of the year but especially late in the year from colorado state on. Houston can exploit that.
 
tee*dub said:
simply stated and powerfully important.:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

If that didnt say hopefully this did:

@Dalton 21/27 322yds 2 TDs
@Hall 28/37 354 yds 2 TDs INT
Farris 19/36 251 yds TD 2INTs
@Clayton 19/30 251yds 2 TDs
Johnson 16/23 243yds TD INT
@Keenum 34/57 362 4TDs INT

Allowed 31 ppg , 1783yds in 6 games on 210 attempts (8.5YPA) , 12TDs vs 5 INTs


I got sidetracked scribbling some NBA stuff down ...

Rounded out the Houston game playing ...

Houston ML -175 {Level1x}
Houston -3-130 {1x}
Teaser : Houston +0.5 and 59 {1x}
Bumped the TT for Houston to {Level2} and play AForce TT 30.5 {Level1} as hedge ......both -115

Line skyrocketed I guess at some point ...saw -4 last I looked and went to play the teaser and its -5.5 !

Be back to finish the CFB stuff after I finish and submit by NBA post
 
Armed Forces Bowl @ TCU (Full Play List)

Houston -2.5{Level3}
Houston ML -160 {Level3}
Houston ML -175{Level1}
Houston -3-130 {Level1}

Teaser : Houston +0.5 and 59 {Level1}
TT: Over Houston 34.5 -115 {Level2}
AF Over 30.5 -115{Level1} Really a hedge like it matters !
 
Sun Bowl 2 PM Arizona -

Some concern about Pitt flying West but missing 2 of your 3 best offensive players is rough ...

Pitt hasnt overly impressed me by any stretch but neither has Oregon State's play on the road ...

1st Half Pitt +0.5 -115{Level2}
Pitt +1 {Level2}
Teaser : Pitt +11 , Minny +17.5 and Vandy +14.5{Level2}

Sticking to the format of Level 1 = 0.50 % of bankroll , Level 2 =1.25% and Level 3 = 2.50% for the BOWLS because thats how I started...

Unsure about the total because thinking Oregon state is going to just chuck it all day and has Stroughter still which brings the RU game to mind ...so no lean on the total ....:cheers:
 
Houston started out fast thanks to some help by a sloppy AF team . SInce they failed to punch it from the 1 yd line they seemed to be lost . AF moved the ball well and their offense stalled . They caught 1 break when AF missed a short FG and another when AF attempted a silly long one . Houston rallied but tried 1 play rather then take the FG with no timeouts left and of course get it inside th AF 5 and time runs out ...

Houston and Keenum have been a 2nd H team for sure . Little concerned they lost so much monetum but do start with the ball...

As a hedge to the last 2 small Level 1 plays I made ML -175 and -3-130 took just a Level 1 play at +3 +115 just to get out of some the vig and Over 31.5 Level 1 ...have more then enough still pending ....

Good Luck !:cheers:

 
SportsNut said:
Sun Bowl 2 PM Arizona -

Some concern about Pitt flying West but missing 2 of your 3 best offensive players is rough ...

Pitt hasnt overly impressed me by any stretch but neither has Oregon State's play on the road ...

1st Half Pitt +0.5 -115{Level2}
Pitt +1 {Level2}
Teaser : Pitt +11 , Minny +17.5 and Vandy +14.5{Level2}

Sticking to the format of Level 1 = 0.50 % of bankroll , Level 2 =1.25% and Level 3 = 2.50% for the BOWLS because thats how I started...

Unsure about the total because thinking Oregon state is going to just chuck it all day and has Stroughter still which brings the RU game to mind ...so no lean on the total ....:cheers:
Click to expand...

Added :
Over 50.5 -120 {Level3}

GL:cheers:
 
2 PM Update (posted above )

2nd H +3 +115 AF pure hedge to wash -3-130 play .
2nd H Over 31.5 {Level1}

1st Half Pitt +0.5 -115 {Level2}
Pitt +1 {Level2}
Over 50.5 -120 {Level3}
Teaser -120 : Level2
Pitt +11 , Vandy +14.5 and Minnesota +17.5

-Bought the half because its Pitt so expect a close game . 24-24 is win basically so guarding against 31-20 , 30-21 , and 27-24 or 28-23...

:cheers:GL
 
3:30 Music City Bowl

Vandy bought to +7 -130 {Level3}
Under 42 bought at -130 {Level1}
1st H Vandy +3 {Level2}
1st Q Vandy +0.5 -120 {Level2}
Teaser: Vandy +12 and Under 47 {Level1}

Expecting BC 20-17

Would have played this as 4 probably as well but with the line move cant pass it up . Expect a very simple BC game plan of trying to run theball with the big OL but that hasnt been overly successful at all this season and Vandy has some stud secondary players . Which Davis has had some long pass plays yardage wise but they offense didnt much vs Maryland 21 at home and not much vs VaTech in FLA for the ACC Championship mostly 4th Q yards and the 1 pass play TD .

Vandys offense is poor their is no if's ands or but's with them ...

Big angle for me is this is VANDY's SUPER BOWL and its a hometown venue...for BC this is just another game after losing the ACC Championship and playing its 10 straight bowl with a huge bowl WIN streak as well....I know Davis wants to redeem himself but when Vandy loses its because they self destruct on offense and when they win they force the opposing offense to self destruct......BC is capable of self destructing on offense here ...their losses werent really bad despite losing 6 of 7 except the Duke game...

Good Luck !:cheers:
 
yeah, sn... only play for me with the way money had been placed on this game is with Vandy. The +7 looks awfully good, but im so scared that it's a move that books expect people to make just to pay the -130 juice. At leasts that's the first thing that came to my mind when i saw the 6. I also believe that a BC win is the TOP picked consensus bet on CBS with the survivor bowl. If there is a public fade, this is the epitome of it for this bowl season. GL
 
6 PM Insight Bowl :

Minny +8.5 -120 {Level3}
1st H Minny +5.5 -120 {Level2}

Reading some of the stuff about this game not sure how well Jake Sharp is as he was battling the FLU as of Monday missing practice , KU has a starting CB out and its not a huge dropoff but still probably a small one , reading about Minny trying to run the bowl and play keep away from Kansas who tends to gamble alot and go for 4th downs . Minny has a healthy Decker at WR as well ...think even a TD is to many ..of course +10 would have been great ..always try to buy to 8.5 as with the 2 PT conversion teams will try and make games 8 pts ...

GL:cheers:





 
Trueblue said:
yeah, sn... only play for me with the way money had been placed on this game is with Vandy. The +7 looks awfully good, but im so scared that it's a move that books expect people to make just to pay the -130 juice. At leasts that's the first thing that came to my mind when i saw the 6. I also believe that a BC win is the TOP picked consensus bet on CBS with the survivor bowl. If there is a public fade, this is the epitome of it for this bowl season. GL
Click to expand...


I dont think the -130 vig plays into it though....good amount of bettors are probably not thinking about Vandy to begin with....
 
After fucking up the Pitt total by going against my initial LEAN almost want to get out of the Vandy / BC total even though its small ...:shake:
 
Houston won but they should have scored a bunch more ...fumble on AF 1 and kick a FG on the 1 ....plus the last drive could have resulted in points but you get why they would just take a knee..:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
3:30 Music City Bowl

Vandy bought to +7 -130 {Level3}
Under 42 bought at -130 {Level1}
1st H Vandy +3 {Level2}
1st Q Vandy +0.5 -120 {Level2}
Teaser: Vandy +12 and Under 47 {Level1}

Expecting BC 20-17

Would have played this as 4 probably as well but with the line move cant pass it up . Expect a very simple BC game plan of trying to run theball with the big OL but that hasnt been overly successful at all this season and Vandy has some stud secondary players . Which Davis has had some long pass plays yardage wise but they offense didnt much vs Maryland 21 at home and not much vs VaTech in FLA for the ACC Championship mostly 4th Q yards and the 1 pass play TD .

Vandys offense is poor their is no if's ands or but's with them ...

Big angle for me is this is VANDY's SUPER BOWL and its a hometown venue...for BC this is just another game after losing the ACC Championship and playing its 10 straight bowl with a huge bowl WIN streak as well....I know Davis wants to redeem himself but when Vandy loses its because they self destruct on offense and when they win they force the opposing offense to self destruct......BC is capable of self destructing on offense here ...their losses werent really bad despite losing 6 of 7 except the Duke game...

Good Luck !:cheers:
Click to expand...

Made the 1st H Level 3 .

Full game played ML +200 Level 1 and another Level 1 Play @ +7-130 .

1st Score of Game Prop Vandy {Level1 }:cheers:

 
I knew I was fucked with Pitt when I read the "Blankets" Game discussion. Would love tehchance to play Oregon State 2nd H but not at 10-0....6-0 mayb eand 3-0 definetly getting out of my Pitt Plays ...:shake:
 
BC did a great job at grinding the ball in the 2nd Q owning TOP . Cant have that in the 3rd Quarter otherwise Vandy will be exhausted . The defense of course ..

Hedge :
BC-3 {Level} just have a chance to widdle at my risk ...

Over 19 {Level1} - Not really a middle because I like the chances they get low 20's here and 28 2nd H points and I still win UNDER 42 ...

GL


 
Oregon State wins 3-0 ........LMAO......so happy I told myself that the under will be a sucker bet ....:tiphat:
 
Tito said:
Nut - G tech tonight?
Click to expand...

Not sure really got starting looking at that game...Thinking 1st half UNDER off the top of my head....GT scares me vs an athletic defense with all the turnovers but LSU desire worries me as well .....:shake:

Still looking at the Minnesota and Kansas game
 
SportsNut said:
6 PM Insight Bowl :

Minny +8.5 -120 {Level3}
1st H Minny +5.5 -120 {Level2}

Reading some of the stuff about this game not sure how well Jake Sharp is as he was battling the FLU as of Monday missing practice , KU has a starting CB out and its not a huge dropoff but still probably a small one , reading about Minny trying to run the bowl and play keep away from Kansas who tends to gamble alot and go for 4th downs . Minny has a healthy Decker at WR as well ...think even a TD is to many ..of course +10 would have been great ..always try to buy to 8.5 as with the 2 PT conversion teams will try and make games 8 pts ...

GL:cheers:
Click to expand...

My wireless connection seems to love to freeze near every gametime ...so annoying !

Added:
Under 60-120 {Level1}
1st H Under 29.5 {Level1}
Kansas TT Under 34-115 {Level1}
1st H Minny +6 -120 {Level1}
Minny +10-120 {Level2}
1st Q Minny +3 -115 {Level1}

:cheers:GL


 
3rd & Long said:
You could be me, I had Pitt +2.5 & Under 52.5, with a straight play on Pitt.
Click to expand...

That sucks although Oregon State did piss away 2 chances inside the Pitt 10 . I cant take +2.5 in football I have to buy +3 or +3.5 cant tell you how many times that won be games especially neutral field sites ..

I liked the UNDER and convinced myself it was the most obvious BET of the day .....

Good Luck on the rest hope you get a break or three to make that pain go away:cheers:
 
Tide High said:
gotcha.

rough start to those unders.
Click to expand...

Its done I dont care to be honest ...I fucked up again and bailed on what I thought yesterday ...all about MINNESOTA ...I care if its important to you guys but just saying the least of my worries...:shake:
 
ALL day Plays

Sticking to the format of Level 1 = 0.50 % of bankroll , Level 2 =1.25% and Level 3 = 2.50% for the BOWLS because thats how I started...

1.31 Bowl Plays :

Houston -2.5{Level3}
Houston ML -160 {Level3}
Houston ML -175{Level1}
Houston -3-130 {Level1}
Teaser : Houston +0.5 and 59 {Level1}
TT: Over Houston 34.5 -115 {Level2} Ends on 34 !
AF Over 30.5 -115{Level1}
2ndHalf AF +3 +115 {level1} HEDGE the -3 -130 play to just vig out
2nd H Over 31.5 {Level1}

1st Half Pitt +0.5 -115{Level2}
Pitt +1 {Level2}
Teaser -120 : Pitt +11 , Minny +17.5 and Vandy +14.5{Level2}
Over 50.5 -120 {Level3}
2nd H : Over 23 {Level1}
2nd H : oregon State PK {Level3} PUSH

Vandy bought to +7 -130 {Level3}
Vandy +7 -130 {Level1}
Under 42 bought at -130 {Level1}
1st H Vandy +3 {Level3}
1st Q Vandy +0.5 -120 {Level2}
Teaser: Vandy +12 and Under 47 {Level1}
Vandy ML +200 {Level1]
Prop Vandy 1st to score +110 [Level1}
2nd H BC -3 {level1} Hedge
2nd H Over 19 {Level1}

Minnesota +8.5 -120 {Level3}
Minnesota +10 -120 {Level2}
1st H Minnesota +5.5 -120 {Level2}
1st H Minnesota +6 -120 {level1}
1st Quarter Minny +3 -115 {Level1}
Under 60-120 {Level1}
1st H Under 29.5 {Level1}
TT Under Kansas 34 -115 {Level1}

1st H Under 27 GaTech {Level1}
 
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