12/16/08 Tuesday NBA

[JPicks]

122-94 (56.5%) +18.25 Units

4-5 yesterday down 1.60 units although it felt worse than that. Had the Cats/Hawks and Jazz/Celtics games figured out perfect and forgot to play the Jazz 1st half. Unfortunately those two games and the Kings were the only thing I got right all day. Really struggling with totals at the moment so I'll be a bit more cautious with them in the coming days.

Lakers -13 -- Lakers 1-9 L10 laying DD's and the Knicks have covered 6 in a row including 5 on the road. So why jump off of both bandwagons? Bit of a gut play I suppose, but this is the Knicks 5th road game in 8 days with the last one being a return home for the head coach and a reunion for many of the players. Lakers meanwhile are getting ready to hit the road themselves for 4 games before coming home and playing the C's on Christmas day. Tempted by the Knicks TT under, but I'll just ride the big spread. Thinking 110-85 kind of game.

Kings/Blazers Over 198.5 -- Haven't looked at it a ton but I've like what I have seen so far. Will follow SportsNut and Tuck on this one.

Rockets/Nuggets Under 200

Bulls -2.5

Likely playing Memphis, Hou/Den under, and the Thunder.

 

[broadwayjoe]

gl jpicks...i like tailin you coming off a day where you didnt profit so i will do so here although the thunder makes me nervous...

 

[JPicks]

gl jpicks...i like tailin you coming off a day where you didnt profit so i will do so here although the thunder makes me nervous...

25 winning days this year versus 20 losing days. Doing a decent job at minimizing big losses and maximizing big days.

8 times I lost one day in a row
4 times I lost two days in a row
1 time I lost three days in a row and boy was it brutal. 4-19 or something or other

So I guess you have me capped pretty good.

The Thunder play should make you nervous. Betting bad teams always makes me nervous, but in the end they tend to cover as much as the great teams in the league. Biggest worry is that they are 3-4 as a 4.5 dog or less (including favs). Much better at covering big DD road spreads. Need to look at it some more before I pull the trigger.

 

[Mo]

Thunder is a good pick. I like them today AND the bobcats.

 

[JPicks]

Rockets/Nuggets Under 200

 

[JPicks]

Thunder is a good pick. I like them today AND the bobcats.

Thanks bukii. Still thinking about them.

 

[B.A.R.]

Sell me on that Under. I understand now the number but didn't get it at first and really believe under is right play.

Also on that Lakers game, D'Antoni and the Lakers are not the best of buds either.

 

[JPicks]

Sell me on that Under. I understand now the number but didn't get it at first and really believe under is right play.

Also on that Lakers game, D'Antoni and the Lakers are not the best of buds either.

Rockets as 5 point favs at home or less:

ATL 190.5 listed total 176 points scored
SAS 178.5 listed total 187 points scored
DAL 190 listed total 182 points scored
NOH 181 listed total 173 points scored
BOS 177.5 listed total 202 points scored


So they are 3-2 to the under with the two games listed in the 170's that have gone over. Only the Boston game games over todays total by 2 points.

Denver is 5-7 O/U away and Houston is 4-6 O/u at home. Nuggets are also 3-6 to the under on the road with Billups and the three overs were against the Cavs, Minny, and the Clipps. Only the Cavs game scares me in that group but you have to realize that Cleveland shot 57% in that game while the Nuggets shot 48%. Seems Billups is bringing his ability to control the temp on the road to the Nuggets offense which is slowing their pace. Saw it multiple times last night as he'd calm everybody down and crawl the ball up the court whenever the Mavs went on a run. Years past the Nuggets would try and shoot their way back into the game and ignore momentum. Not the case with the new floor general.

So on one side you have Houston who reverts to their defensive identity when faced with equal competition and on the other side you have Denver who is in no hurry to run on the road against formidable foes. If they couldn't reach 200 in Denver, with both teams combining to hit 21-43 from 3pt range, I don't see any reason why they get any closer with the switch in venues.

 

[B.A.R.]

Seems Billups is bringing his ability to control the temp on the road to the Nuggets offense which is slowing their pace.

That was my biggest factor in all honesty. Seen it for years obviously


This tidbit is real nice though

with both teams combining to hit 21-43 from 3pt range,

 

[JPicks]

I'm sure you have with him in Detroit. I'm sure scouts see it way more than it's given credit for in all honesty. They don't call the PG the QB for nothing and the great ones have that 6th sense. You won't find a backup PG in the league who is great at it either which makes watching 2nd units PAINFUL some times.

 

[Marlo]

good luck J

 

[Timh]

GL JP.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks guys.


Bulls -2.5 -- Can't ignore SportsNut's w/up on that one. And it's not like road teams are having problems covering spreads these days.

Only thing left I'm considering is the Rockets 1st half.

 

[Ca$He]

Good Health with your Bulls. I'm on Cha, but leaning lakeshow as well.

 

[broadwayjoe]

25 winning days this year versus 20 losing days. Doing a decent job at minimizing big losses and maximizing big days.

8 times I lost one day in a row
4 times I lost two days in a row
1 time I lost three days in a row and boy was it brutal. 4-19 or something or other

So I guess you have me capped pretty good.

The Thunder play should make you nervous. Betting bad teams always makes me nervous, but in the end they tend to cover as much as the great teams in the league. Biggest worry is that they are 3-4 as a 4.5 dog or less (including favs). Much better at covering big DD road spreads. Need to look at it some more before I pull the trigger.

well at least i can cap something right hahaha. don't think i can stomach the road bulls, but i'm jumpin on the under in that one despite the over evening up for the cats.

on the rest with ya and took the rockets and grizzlies as well. you still considering the thunder?

 

[JPicks]

No on the Thunder. Had a bunch of success playing them as DD dogs and I think I'll just stick with that. I will be playing them two games from now when they are hosting your Cavs though.

 

[broadwayjoe]

so will i jpicks..ats and ml. on sunday right after a big win at denver before coming home probably 2-0 on the road trip and facing houston at home ...spotted that fucker as soon as we slaughtered them relentlessly.

what is your feel on that cats under? you've had success on their totals, was wondering which way you leaned...

 

[JPicks]

Not sure man. The new players combined with Wallace out makes it tough to play their totals. I've tended to like their overs when he is out because he is far and away their best defender.


Back to the Cleveland game, do you remember Gibson shooting that 3 with time left on the shot clock up 32? Some unpleasant looks were exchanged after that shot. I'm sure the Thunder haven't forgot about it. Could be a real tough spot for Cleveland.

 

[JPicks]

Tuck pointed this out and I'm throwing the stats out there. Good trend, no great trend:

Rockets off of a SU loss with their next game @home (opponent, 1st quarter, 1st half)

This Season

NOH, W5, W12 (2 point game favs)
SAN, W13, W7 (3 point game favs)
ATL, W11, W8 (5 point game favs)

Last Season
LAC W18, W16 (14 point game favs)
SAC W2, W4 Didn't cover (11 point game favs)
GSW W15, W14 (2.5 point gave favs)
SAN L1, W7 Cover HT line only (1 point game favs)

Not going back any farther as I think the stats speak for themselves.

Rockets -1.5 1st half

I'd like to play both the quarter and half, but I don't want that much on the line against a streaking Denver team. This game also falls under BC's thread about Home Rest vs B2B's which is historically a 66.6 % ATS winner and 5-3 this year.

 

[RetroVK]

keep killing it JP

 

[Tide High]

against u on none, wear it out.