11/30/08 Sunday NBA

[JPicks]

76-58 (57%) +13.00 Units
9-12 ML's -1.65 Units
3-5 yesterday -2.50 units

Blazers/Pistons Under 186.5 -- Think the line is low at 4, but also think we're in a weird transition into a the crappy month of December where everything tightens up and results are a bit more unpredictable. I do love Portland's defense as of late and think they really bring it for the first game of their road trip. They've struggled a bit with up and down teams (pho, GSW, SAC) but otherwise have done a good job of late on the defensive end. Day game off a long flight doesn't hurt things either.

Leans: Almost 100% sure I'll be playing both quarter bets.

Houston 1st quarter --
Lakers 3rd quarter -- They've won the last 6 by a 7.7 margin with all of them being 6 points or more except for a 1 point win against Denver. 12, 8, 7, 1, 7, and 11.
Nets +9 -- Smallest of the leans.

 

[reNew Orleans]

bol tonight JP - no BS today. i hope

 

[Mo]

GOOD LUCK BRO

 

[RetroVK]

gl jeff

 

[Retburj13]

:cheers:

time to re-charge

 

[tuck321]

Should also look at Utah at home in the third quarter and almost automatic fades of Boston on the road in the fourth. The problem for me today is I believe you should balance dogs and favorites just as overs and unders and can find no fav that seems to make much sense today. This dog to fav imbalance has to narrow just find it hard to do today.
gl

 

[ddk997]

GL tonight bro

 

[JPicks]

Thanks fellas.

tuck--Agree with Utah in the third quarter, but I think the Lakers are a bit stronger as it seems they've gotten bored already and are playing with teams. Unfortunately now that they are finally hitting the road (11 of 15 have been in Staples center) that may change. Interested to take a look at the Boston angle as I haven't noticed it before. As to the over/unders and favs/dogs I could take the Sixers and the over, but it would only be to follow the books lead and not fight it. Line doesn't make much sense to me the way the Sixers have been playing, but I'm learning not to fight those battles. Other than that I don't see a favorite or an over worth playing either hence the reason I headed to quarter bets.

 

[rob0317]

Nice hit with the under!!!!!!!! Didn't think we would hit it there for a while but the last 6 minutes worked out real well

 

[Inspekdah]

Houston 1Q looks saucy

 

[JPicks]

Thanks Robo. Didn't watch any of the game but glad to see it wasn't closer as it probably would have gone over.

Inspekdah-- It sure does.

Houston L4 1st Quarters (red are road games)

SAN W by 13
Indy W by 7
Miami W by 9
Orlando W by 8

Rockets' 1st quarters on b2b's:
Orlando W by 8 --Changed Venues
Hornets W by 5 --Changed Venues (after playing the Spurs)
Clippers W by 7 --Changed Venues
Mavs L by 1 --Changed Venues

So they're playing great in the 1st quarter's recently and have not had a problem getting out of the gates on b2b's regardless if they play at home and then head to the road on the b2b. Nor do they have a letdown after playing the Spurs as they went to New Orleans and dominated the 1st quarter. Only 1st quarter they lost on a b2b was after their opening night game where they went to Dallas the following night.

As for Denver 1st quarters on a b2b: (home in red)

NOH Lost by 10 --Changed Venues
SAN Won by 1 -- Changed Venues
BOS Lost by 9--Changed Venues
LAL Lost by 2--Changed Venues

Some tough opponents to play on the back end of b2b's so far this year. At worst I'd expect the Rockets to be tied at the end of the first or possibly down 1. Love getting a point and a half in this spot.

Rockets +1.5 (-15c) 1st Quarter

 

[JPicks]

And for whatever reason Bookmaker hasn't released the 3rd quarter lines.

 

[reNew Orleans]

3Q lines out now

 

[JPicks]

3Q lines out now

Appreciate the heads up.

Lakers -3.5 (-15c)

Lakers at home this year own a 26.2 to 20.7 advantage in the 3rd quarter. They have outscored their opponents 29.8 to 22.8 over the L5 in the 3rd and 26.0 to 20.5 over the course of the year.

Expect Toronto to come out with some passion in the first half for their first game of the roadie much like Portland did. Lakers haven't gotten hurt by falling behind all year so I doubt they really care if they have to rally in the 2nd half and probably enjoy it a bit for the challenge of it.