11/17/08 NBA Monday

[JPicks]

47-36 +9.90 Units
7-8 ML's +1.85 Units

Clippers -2
Spurs/Clips Under 177 -- Going to see if the Spurs under train has one more stop in it. Line is probably moving up, but I won't be around much tomorrow to see where it goes so I'm playing it now. Since TP went down with and injury the Spurs have put up totals of 172, 160, 152, and 178 last night. Two of those 4 opponents (Sac 178 and NYK 172) I'd consider running teams while the other two (HOU 152 and MIL 160) I'd consider the opposite.

Where do the Clippers fall in line? I lean to the latter, but I think they're missing an identity and fall into whatever the other teams wants to do. The Clipps have faced Dallas, SAC, and GSW over their last three games and it looks as if they've found their offense. Looks are deceiving imo. Only Dallas could be considered as an average defense and that'd be giving them the benefit of the doubt with the way things have transpired. Take way the 3 run-n-gun games and an OT game with Denver (pre Billups) and the Clippers have averaged 80 points a game. Off of two dissapointing losses against the Kings and Warriors and I think the Clippers have to go back to focusing on defense as they were exploited in both games.

Previous matchups between the two teams has some ugly defensive battles mixed in and I expect the same here. I'll be surprised if either teams hits the 90 mark.

Likely my only play of the evening unless the Thunder get bet up to a 10 point home dog.

 

[RJ Esq]

Good luck, bro.

 

[SportsNut]

Small 3 game card and NL yet on Utah so only two games to look at .

Pretty hard to find a reason to get off the UNDER train with SA. My main issue would be SA in a tough spot (5th in 7 ) and lowest points LAC allowed all season was 89 . SA was even holding the ball in the 1st H working the shot clock at SAC. Hard to imagine I dont like LAC here BIG . If they cant beat a worn down , tired team , off some brutally close wins then they just may never WIN a game. Road trip after this game so now or never IMO. You had SA win @ SAC as 2 or 2.5 pt dogs which its a tad lower here . Except LAC was laying -7.5 to SAC last week. My how these have changed . After the last few games going to be tough to get LAC interest but think its a great spot ...

Houston also in a crap spot and OKC playing 6th in 9 days as well . Think we see another low scoring game as I would be suprised if Houston was interested in running here . Think the spread is to big but prefer the UND 183 I think......

:cheers:GL

 

[tuck321]

Notice Duncan miss those last 2 free throws. I am guessing Pops did and limits his playing time tomorrow.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks RJ.

SN--Utah just opened at -1.5 and 198. AK, Okur, and Harpring should all play and DWill is being called a game time decision and I expect he'll probably give it another shot. Played the Clipps. I know it's the right side, but it's tough to keep betting on these guys. Think I'm 1-3 betting on them this year. Never even looked at the Rockets game, but did notice that HOU has finally settled in on the defensive side. Thunder defense scares me a bit with that under.

Tuck--First one barely hit front iron. Definitely some tired legs, but it's the Clippers. I thought the last two games were gift wins and they lost both of those. Either way played it on principle.


Clippers -2

 

[Marlo]

good luck J

 

[PokeyFSU]

With ya in LA... However, 177 is awfully low, although warranted... I can't help but think the Clipps are going to try to run tonight early and often, and if they don't, shame on Mike Dunleavy. This is likely as vulnerable as the Spurs will be for quite sometime. We have them on a b2b on the west coast v. 2 beatable teams, despite their injury misfortunes... They have pulled out 2 straight wins late in the 4th, after blowing one in Milwaukee... The Clippers have been at home for well over a week, and need this one badly before they hit the road.

To me, all the angles point to LA. It seems the Spurs could be physically and emotionally drained, and somewhat feeling good about themselves after pulling out those 2 games in Houston and SacTown. Will Pops rest his horse a little more for the homestand, and take his chances on the Clippers falling apart yet again? I think the best play on the board is the Clipps -2. I just cant justify that total to myself either way. The Clippers should dictate the pace, but the Clippers are the Clippers and there is never really anytime when a man should feel comforted with money on them... but this time is as good as any, imo... and I will take my chances.

GL with the total :shake:

 

[broadwayjoe]

bol jpicks. clippers is the only way i'd play this one.

thoughts on the jazz game?

 

[Inspekdah]

On it.

GL

 

[Marlo]

Got a big one the radar for tomorrow.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks Marlo. I'll pop into the discussion thread in a minute as I see a couple of beauties tomorrow myself.

Pokey--Great thoughts man. Agree that 177 is a low #, but it's not as if we haven't seen each of these teams drop well below that # in games already this year. The books have almost caught up with the Spurs totals, but I'm hoping I can sneak one or two more in. And great thoughts.

Broadway--Appreciated. I gotta admit that I'm a bit gun shy of the Clippers but eventually saw enough to pull the trigger. If they lose this one it's going to take something drastic for them to get my money out of my pocket to place a bet on them. I still think they can be a good team but I'm really starting to wonder in Davis and Adelman can coexist. I'll get to the Jazz in a minute as well.

Inspedkah--:shake:

 

[JPicks]

So I'm sure everybody has read the updates on the Jazz or heard them.

Deron is out. Okur is out. AK is in and I'd imagine they have Harpring as well. Collins will get the start at center to play Shaq. Matcups wise this is a tough game for the Jazz. Boozer has to try and defend Amare while Price/Knight will have their hands full with Nash. I believe Barbosa is still out while Barnes returns. Not 100% on those.

I personally don't see a reason to bet this game with so many unknowns on both sides, but if I was forced to I would take the Suns. With Nash, Amare and Shaq all having significant advantages in their matchups it's hard to see them not being at worse competitive in this game. The problem with playing the Suns is this will be the 14th day in a row w/out 2 days off in row. 9 games in 14 days for a squad that has/is playing shorthanded is a tough task. They had 5 guys go over 35 minutes last night vs Detroit with Shaq getting the most rest as he was ejected in the first half. The Jazz are also 16 days into a stretch w/out consecutive days off. 5th game in 7 nights playing extremely shorthanded. Does either team really care to get out and push tempo tonight? Doubt it.

Probably convincing myself to play the under.

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL today JP - hope i dont jinx the Clippers

 

[Marlo]

So I'm sure everybody has read the updates on the Jazz or heard them.

Deron is out. Okur is out. AK is in and I'd imagine they have Harpring as well. Collins will get the start at center to play Shaq. Matcups wise this is a tough game for the Jazz. Boozer has to try and defend Amare while Price/Knight will have their hands full with Nash. I believe Barbosa is still out while Barnes returns. Not 100% on those.

I personally don't see a reason to bet this game with so many unknowns on both sides, but if I was forced to I would take the Suns. With Nash, Amare and Shaq all having significant advantages in their matchups it's hard to see them not being at worse competitive in this game. The problem with playing the Suns is this will be the 14th day in a row w/out 2 days off in row. 9 games in 14 days for a squad that has/is playing shorthanded is a tough task. They had 5 guys go over 35 minutes last night vs Detroit with Shaq getting the most rest as he was ejected in the first half. The Jazz are also 16 days into a stretch w/out consecutive days off. 5th game in 7 nights playing extremely shorthanded. Does either team really care to get out and push tempo tonight? Doubt it.

Probably convincing myself to play the under.

I bet it figuring both Okur and D would be out. I think the Suns have alot less to play for than the Jazz do, especially with the big win vs Detroit yesterday and LA on deck.

 

[broadwayjoe]

i was leanin under myself....like the response, thanks picks

 

[JPicks]

BOL today JP - hope i dont jinx the Clippers

Trust me when I tell you the Clippers don't need any help. They can fully jinx themselves. :cheers:

I bet it figuring both Okur and D would be out. I think the Suns have alot less to play for than the Jazz do, especially with the big win vs Detroit yesterday and LA on deck.

I like that angle. Line moving that way as well. Jazz haven't lost three in a row since early last December.

i was leanin under myself....like the response, thanks picks

Wish I would have grabbed it when I wrote that. Looks like somebody hammered it down two points. Not sure I'll play it now.

 

[Ramathorn02]

I played the Spurs under last night and that should've been an easy over. I have to take the over tonight +176.5

GL

 

[JPicks]

The funny thing about last nights game is that the Spurs shoot 46% from the field, hit 9 3's while shooting 45% and shoot 77% from the line. The Kings shoot 45% from the field, hit 6 3's shooting 40% and hit 84% from the line. And they still only scored 178 points. Imagine if the shooting %'s were down.

 

[Timh]

GL JPicks, fine work you are doing.

 

[SportsNut]

Just pounding LAC today ........maybe some 1st HALF as well .....GL

 

[JPicks]

Jazz 2nd Half PK (-05c)

Jazz shooting 7% worse than PHO and not hitting any of their FT's and still up 3. Getting all the hustle plays. Outrebounding the Suns 22-15. Expect them to open a decent little lead in the 2nd half.

 

[broadwayjoe]

well be glad you didn't play that under...most frustrating game ever. just as the rockets gave the thunder every damn opportunity there was for the cover, this is a big under pace with guys going off in the last 2 minutes of both quarters. two very frustrating losses...and my frustrating browns uggghhhh...going to join you on the clippers i think...might as well get all of the frustration out in one night

 

[JPicks]

Well the Clipps can certainly be frustrating so at least you're prepared.

Funny how good I feel about my thoughts on that Thunder game though. Loved the under, but didn't trust OKC defense and wanted 10 over 8 (which still would have loss). That team is struggling pretty bad right now and might not even be worth playing at anything less than 12 point dogs. They're a great fade if they are up or close at half.

 

[broadwayjoe]

i agree. don't have the exact numbers because i'm paying more attention to these shitty browns, but i think they had 6 points with 4.5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, then in the fourth it took them the 3 minute mark to break double digits...just entirely pathetic in the second half

 

[Ramathorn02]

sheesh, I am getting hosed. Clips need to pick it up.

 

[Retburj13]

nice hit on jizz bud..

typical clip frustration here....really think pop totally mucks this game to a grind now that they lead at HT

 

[JPicks]

sheesh, I am getting hosed. Clips need to pick it up.

didn't watch any of the 1st half but not surprised. i might take okc as a pick on the road against these bums right now

nice hit on jizz bud..

typical clip frustration here....really think pop totally mucks this game to a grind now that they lead at HT

thanks. i'll certainly take a 2-1 night right now knowing that I bet on the a NBDL team.

 

[SportsNut]

Crazy how LAC doesnt win that game getting every break late . I know Mobley hit a big three late but why in a tie game did they not go to Kaman or Thorton. So frustrating losing every close game these days . I almost pulled th etrigger on LAC 4th Q but passed of course LAC wins 3 of the 4 quarters but lose the game . Go figure . Worst is they hit a 3 and lose a 2nd H play as well . Only saving grace Und 87 SA TT managed to sneak in and Kaman +8.5 vs Duncan cashed . Minor plays though....

 

[SportsNut]

Mix in the 1st H memphis -9 to tough beats . Its amazing at this point . Up by 10 with 2 to play and UMass outscores them 2-0 !