Workday Charity Open 2020

DaddyMcIlhon

DaddyMcIlhon

Pretty much a regular
Stronger field than last week. Doucheboy taking the week off.. thank God. I’m sure they’ll still find a way to talk about him every 5 seconds though. I see some value down the board this week. Last week there weren’t enough big names up top to drive prices down.

Great discussion in here last week. Let’s keep it going. Odds below:

Justin Thomas +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1300
Jon Rahm +1300
Brooks Koepka +1700
Hideki Matsuyama +1700
Xander Schauffele +1700
Rickie Fowler +2500
Viktor Hovland +2600
Justin Rose +2600
Patrick Reed +3000
Collin Morikawa +3500
Gary Woodland +3500
Sungjae Im +4150
Matt Kuchar +4500
Adam Hadwin +5000
Marc Leishman +5000
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Jordan Spieth +5000
Bubba Watson +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5500
Byeong Hun An +7000
Jason Day +7000
Billy Horschel +7000
Jason Kokrak +7000
Kevin Streelman +7000
Matthew Wolff +7000
Louis Oosthuizen +7500
Scottie Scheffler +7500
Harold Varner III +7500
Cameron Champ +8500
Corey Conners +8500
Phil Mickelson +8500
Bud Cauley +10000
Joel Dahmen +10000
Shane Lowry +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Jhonattan Vegas +10000
Keegan Bradley +11000
Jim Furyk +11000
Branden Grace +11000
Lanto Griffin +11000
Emiliano Grillo +11000
Russell Henley +11000
Max Homa +11000
Mark Hubbard +11000
Zach Johnson +11000
Chris Kirk +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Rory Sabbatini +11000
Brandt Snedeker +11000
Scott Stallings +11000
Kyle Stanley +11000
Ryan Armour +13000
Joseph Bramlett +13000
Luke List +13000
Maverick McNealy +13000
Sebastian Munoz +13000
Ryan Palmer +13000
Brendan Steele +13000
Matt Wallace +13000
Jason Dufner +17500
Dylan Frittelli +17500
Brice Garnett +17500
Tom Hoge +17500
Charles Howell III +17500
Mackenzie Hughes +17500
Matt Jones +17500
Troy Merritt +17500
Matthew NeSmith +17500
Henrik Norlander +17500
Carlos Ortiz +17500
 
Super preliminary, but from a DK side, Cam Champ is #1 in SG Off the Tee, and #5 in birdie or better %, I haven't even looked at the course yet, but dechambeau was 1/4 last week (albeit a much better 1/4, as well as better in other categories), but he should be cheap enough and has scoring potential, which is much more preferred (5 birders/5 bogeys is much better than 10 pars).

Same comments about Scheffler, he was priced higher than usual last week, and he shot 7 over on thursday, and then 7 under on friday.... he's #7/#4 on the categories mentioned above, and assuming his price has came down since he missed the cut (and hopefully that means his ownership does too.

Wish I just hit the lock button last week on DeChambeau, was so damn obvious too.
 
Thanks for starting this thread. Looking forward to discussion on this one. Saw there are a ton of matchups being offered this week so should be a lot to dig into.
 
Two early bets placed:

Gary Woodland - $50 to win $2000 at 40-1.
Marc Leishman - $50 to win $2000 at 40-1.

These are two guys with good course history and are great ball strikers. Leishman #1 SG Approach. Putting is going to be a bit demphasized this week, so that helps both of these guys who don’t always putt well. I think these guys are just as likely to win as Rose, Matsu .. who everyone will be on due to course history and showing “some” recent form.
 
Top 10 tee to green since restart
  1. Viktor Hovland
  2. Henrik Norlander
  3. Justin Rose
  4. Joaquin Niemann
  5. Harold Varner
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Cameron Champ
  8. Corey Conners
  9. Bubba Watson
  10. Kevin Streelman
 
HV3 -120 over Dahmen
Leishman -150 over Poulter
Hadwin -137 over Horschel
Cantlay +110 over JT
 
Found this article talking about the differences between this week and next - you have to scroll past the rankings where they talk about the tournament.

www.pgatour.com

Power Rankings: Workday Charity Open

Opportunity is a by-product of properly managing adversity. The Workday Charity Open is evidence.
www.pgatour.com
 
Added Rose $50 to win $1250 at 25-1. Maybe a bit of a sucker bet but I liked the number. I think with the rough down it’ll help him because he tends to spray a bit lately. I honestly dont see a long shot winning this week so I prefer to play closer to the top of the board without laying too much. Probably done for the week minus 4 or 5 DK teams and some featured group matchups.
 
I removed anyone under "2 points" unless they were top 10 tee to green - those are bolded (rose/streelman/norlander missed it)

SGApp - Bogey Avoidance - SG ArTG - Greens in Reg - SG Putting (looking for bent/poa) - Scrambling - SG OffTT - Birdie or Better %

1594132260612.png
 
ScopeY said:
I removed anyone under "2 points" unless they were top 10 tee to green - those are bolded (rose/streelman/norlander missed it)

SGApp - Bogey Avoidance - SG ArTG - Greens in Reg - SG Putting (looking for bent/poa) - Scrambling - SG OffTT - Birdie or Better %

View attachment 49151
Click to expand...

Was looking at Conners. He has played well since the break and he sets up well here imo. Good info thanks.
 
So I’m going to continue playing Round 1 matchups for the featured groups. I ended up up small thanks to Todd hitting at 2-1 over Bubba and Day last week. Here are two I’m already on. Still looking at the others:

Woodland +245 over Rahm (+130), Hovland (+175).
Cantlay +120 over Spieth (+180), Mickelson (+250).

I see the Cantlay bet as kind of a hedge on the Woodland long shot (if you can call it that). Spieth and Phil have huge blowup potential and Cantlay could easily run away with it. The others:

Thomas (+125), Brooks (+160), and Day (+275).
Fowler (+145), Reed (+155), and Wolff (+240).

Lean Brooks but not sure yet. Thomas played like shit last time out and I’m not sure Brooks is not closer to even with JT in terms of likelihood to win the day. Will obviously be fading Day, and he has a terrible record at this course despite having a house not far from the grounds.

Totally unsure on the other one. Fowler and Reed are both so erratic. Although I have a gut feeling Reed shows up for this one. Nothing to base it off of. He’s one of few guys who can play like shit for weeks and then just win.
 
Yeah, cantlay is my favorite favorite of those posted.... then thomas. I know fowler had a good showing last week, but I need to see it more, reed is definitely the safer play
 
aplous said:
Agree that looks tasty.

Rahm is a tough call for me this week. Really has not looked good since the restart.
Click to expand...

I’d love to fade Rahm full tournament but all I’m being offered is +110 with X and I don’t love X this week. I may follow Daddy M with Woodland first round
 
First round lines finally up

Took Cantlay +120 over Spieth and Phil
Dahmen +145 over Kirk and Hadley
Bubba +115 over Landry and Holmes

Swear after last week that I wasn't going to play Bubba again, but here I am. We'll see if he can get his irons going this week. Dahmen is a great ball striker and in good form and think Kirk comes back down to Earth this week. And I will take +120 here with Cantlay against Spieth and Phil every time.

Some juicy matchups

JT -0.5 stroke -160 vs Day
Cantlay -0.5 stroke -150 vs Phil
Rickie -152 vs Wolff (tie no bet)

Want to fade Day and Phil and will pay to see it - also, liked how Rickie played last week and good history here and think it'll be tough for Wolff to get up here after last week, at least for the first round - we shall see. Think Rickie/Reed is a complete toss-up so just going the matchup.
 
Leishman Top Australian Player +160 over Day, Matt Jones, Cameron Davis, Cameron Percy, and Baddeley
 
Geez. DK ended up releasing some full tournament matchups I really like this evening so played more than I’ve wanted but added

Niemann -120 vs Spieth
Dahmen -110 vs Louis O
Cantlay -125 vs Deki
Streelman -150 vs Sabs

They finally offered some Rahm fades with JT and Cantlay but I have enough and talked myself into being scared of Rahm finally putting a tournament together again
 
I decided to fade Jason Day in the full tournament matchups. He's currently -4. One of my matchups against him is Bubba. Oops. Guess there's still time for Day to get the sniffles and WD
 
Really want dahmen to have a respectable final 7 holes... I played the 20 max entry $3 tourney on DK, but I entered a couple in the milly maker, and he's the only one over par :(
 
ScopeY said:
Really want dahmen to have a respectable final 7 holes... I played the 20 max entry $3 tourney on DK, but I entered a couple in the milly maker, and he's the only one over par :(
Click to expand...

Yeah uh I dunno what happened to him. Really surprising to me. He's close to being in MC range. Needs a couple to birds to finish off the day and have a huge day tomorrow, but he looks awful.
 
I'm starting to think Phil hates me more than I hate him. Dude is killing me - first Bryson and now today!
 
aplous said:
Hovland, Mori, Neimann, Cantlay probably my top plays this week so look for 1-2 of them to miss the cut.
Click to expand...
That one looks good to me. I have Hovland and Cantlay myself, but in a diferenet type of bet. Need to beat Niemann. No action against Mori.
good luck
 
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