***Wild Card Weekend Discussion Thread***

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aplous said:
I bet Dallas -2.5. Lean Baltimore. Kind of surprised to see Houston only -2.5 I would’ve guessed 3.5.
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Love dallas. They match up so perfectly here. Among the best rush defenses in yards allowed and ypc. Zeke facing a Seattle defense at bottom of league in ypc allowed.

That Houston/colts game tough, 3rd time seeing each other always is. Gotta give edge to Indy cause i think they have the much better coach., seems like a game w potential for lot of points. My 1st reaction is teasing Indy to +8.5 seems about a solid a play you can make.
 
I like bears to win but man they laying a pretty big number. As much I love this bears team I don’t like giving many points w them.
 
I like to take my time but at first glance I’ll most likely be on Ind, Balt, Dallas and Chicago.

Why not take Chicago now and if Foles can’t go you’ve got a gift line. He plays you can buy it back.

I was on Indy a few weeks back in the same spot. Hoping to get 3.

Balt is going to win. As a KC guy id much much rather see the Colts even though they are everyone’s darlings right now (mostly earned)
 
Sucks it 2 fewer points than last time but it gonna be colder weather and think Lynn getting another crack at ravens offense can only make it tougher for them to move ball., give me the under 42 all day everyday in balty! Screw a side. Prob also take a charger +8.5 /under 48 teaser. Even tho balty prob does win, think it be 1 score.

Like the under in big D as well as Dallas.

Indy/over teaser seems like money.

I hope bears get bet down to where the ml cheap cause love them to win.
 
2daBank said:
Love dallas. They match up so perfectly here. Among the best rush defenses in yards allowed and ypc. Zeke facing a Seattle defense at bottom of league in ypc allowed.

That Houston/colts game tough, 3rd time seeing each other always is. Gotta give edge to Indy cause i think they have the much better coach., seems like a game w potential for lot of points. My 1st reaction is teasing Indy to +8.5 seems about a solid a play you can make.
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What about the coaching mismatch in Seattle/Dallas?
 
Was an Interesting business decision by Chicago yesterday - they could have had the Vikings next weekend at home and effectively chose to play the Eagles. Will be some fodder for Pederson.
 
Colts the better football team

Gonna take fluky stuff to reach 44 in Dallas

The 10am / cross country / hot team stuff is all window dressing. The Chargers are better and have seen this Baltimore offense already which is a big equalizer given the unique nature of what Baltimore is doing.

Waiting for Chicago weather - Bears TT Under looks good to me, don’t think they get to 24.
 
The Chargers also played their worst game of the season by far. They absolutely killed themselves with penalties every time they started to get something going. All that being said it was a one possession game with a couple mins left in the game until the Ravens scored a defensive TD. A major advantage goes to SD defense here, I would have to believe that seeing the gadget running plays for the second time would only help. I do not think the Chargers could possibly play a worse game than they did a couple weeks back and yet they were still in position to win that game late.
 
As a Chiefs fan, based on how KC matches up, I am rooting in this order: Colts, Chargers, Ravens.... Ravens just a bad matchup and Chiefs were very fortunate to escape with a win that game. I wouldn't mind watching Baltimore run up and down the field on the Pats though. It is what it is.. Whatever the matchup is, teams need to be ready.

I do not think though that the Chargers (probably the most talented team) played their worst game that day. They played 6 bad to awful games this year. Ranking them one by one would be difficult. One never knows which version is going to show up. Hence my hesitancy to praise Anthony Lynn the way others do .
 
raems said:
Colts the better football team

Gonna take fluky stuff to reach 44 in Dallas

The 10am / cross country / hot team stuff is all window dressing. The Chargers are better and have seen this Baltimore offense already which is a big equalizer given the unique nature of what Baltimore is doing.

Waiting for Chicago weather - Bears TT Under looks good to me, don’t think they get to 24.
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Agree, would think a team that has seen Balt new offense would benefit them.
 
survive&advance said:
What about the coaching mismatch in Seattle/Dallas?
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I mean I guess it could matter but I think the matchup so good for them and both teams being so much better at home than on road I think that outweighs the coaching. Plus I’ve seen Pete make some pretty horrible decisions himself over the years.. Dallas run game vs Seattle bad run d and Seattle run gm vs boys very good run d is what I think decides this one.
 
No offense but Carroll single handedly cost his team a super bowl and he kept reggie bush on the sideline on the biggest play of the year in the national championship game (some might consider leaving the heisman winner off the field with a yard to go ponderous given he could be a decoy while their better rb carried for the yard)) I realize the Cowboys coach is awful but let us not get carried away here with the Seahawks coaching edge.
 
2daBank said:
I mean I guess it could matter but I think the matchup so good for them and both teams being so much better at home than on road I think that outweighs the coaching. Plus I’ve seen Pete make some pretty horrible decisions himself over the years.. Dallas run game vs Seattle bad run d and Seattle run gm vs boys very good run d is what I think decides this one.
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Pete at least makes the playoffs each year

Separate from that comment, im very surprised to see so much DAL and LAC love in this thread
 
RetroVK said:
No offense but Carroll single handedly cost his team a super bowl and he kept reggie bush on the sideline on the biggest play of the year in the national championship game (some might consider leaving the heisman winner off the field with a yard to go ponderous given he could be a decoy while their better rb carried for the yard)) I realize the Cowboys coach is awful but let us not get carried away here with the Seahawks coaching edge.
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Holding that play against him from 13 years ago is a stretch to me at this point, obviously i am a Horn but i thought LenDale was the right guy at that moment and 1) Pete’s a defensive guy 2) the offenses were not as advanced in those days with all the misdirection so they’re either going i-formation with LenDale at FB to give him the ball or doing what they did
 
How much are we giving for HCA?

I’m not a huge believer in 3 points during the regular season besides guessing what Vegas will throw at us before the market corrects them, but i think the playoffs it’s a bit more valuable and with the way flags come out this year i think that’s something that should be given weight to as well.

Passing offenses hurt TOP with incompletions, but the illegal contact penalties and PI bailouts don’t come from run heavy offenses like BAL. I’m sure we’ll see plenty of flags as we have all year and they should favor the home teams a bit more than road teams if i have any clue about ref HFA
 
For all the love, LAC falls behind a lot of teams and has to fight their way back in games. Like in the first meeting, BAL won’t let you them do that so you’re banking on a slow-starting team to get out of the blocks quickly and that seems risky...

I like that we’re below 3, but still not in love with laying points when the QB struggles to hit open receivers
 
kdog said:
Pete has Russell Wilson. With a lesser quarterback he'd be watching on TV with the rest of us.
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you could say that about just about any coach though. BB in CLE was fired with no qb now a genius. The list goes on.
 
LAC bandwagon may have been from the summer and they were definitely affected by Melvin Gordon's injury, but what impressive stuff have they actually done this season besides the comebacks?

And the comebacks were against awful defenses. I think their most impressive win was @SEA and they nearly blew a big lead when Wilson could have tied it if he made a good throw as time expired. I like LAC and Rivers as an underdog, but I just don't see this team like the rest of everyone does
 
Another thing to keep in mind this weekend is that QBs making their first playoff start traditionally are not good bets. So this would apply this weekend to Watson, Jackson, and Trubisky.
 
D-Woww said:
lots of really good games that could go either way. Great for viewing, not great for wagering. My initial instinct is that the way to play this slate is to hold off and wait for some good in-game lines
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Love your Eagles. So much more experience at qb and a very underrated d
 
GWarner27 said:
LAC bandwagon may have been from the summer and they were definitely affected by Melvin Gordon's injury, but what impressive stuff have they actually done this season besides the comebacks?

And the comebacks were against awful defenses. I think their most impressive win was @SEA and they nearly blew a big lead when Wilson could have tied it if he made a good throw as time expired. I like LAC and Rivers as an underdog, but I just don't see this team like the rest of everyone does
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They’ve won in Seattle, KC and Pittsburgh, and won 12 games with a +99 point differential. They’re a great team that just happens to be in the same division as the 1 seed.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Love your Eagles. So much more experience at qb and a very underrated d
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its weird to say this without anything to back it up, but weve had foles here for parts of like 6 seasons, and hes played a ton, I kind of have a feel for how he is going to play based on the spot and this just feels like a spot where he is going to get crushed and throw a few picks. I agree its a lot of points to lay with the bears who are inexperienced and young, but I definitely could see their defense completely dominating the eagles. Really hope I am wrong, but I wont be getting involved
 
No offense D-Wow but ive kind of noticed you often seem like a team pessimist kind of fan, opposite of a homer. Its really hard to cap your own team I think unless you‘re going off of some key trend or match-up angle that you have knowledge of, so no blame
 
Ryno14 said:
Another thing to keep in mind this weekend is that QBs making their first playoff start traditionally are not good bets. So this would apply this weekend to Watson, Jackson, and Trubisky.
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what about RBs who happen to have QB jersey numbers and take the direct snap
 
raems said:
They’ve won in Seattle, KC and Pittsburgh, and won 12 games with a +99 point differential. They’re a great team that just happens to be in the same division as the 1 seed.
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SEA i'll give ya and the other were comeback wins vs awful defenses while KC blasted them at home. I probably should do this for BAL as well to be fair, but based on the LAC schedule:

KC blowout loss
@BUF handled
@LAR loss
SF tight win
OAK win
@CLE dominated but Kitchens was very new
TEN barely won
SEA led throughout and most impressive win
@OAK win
DEN could not hold a lead and lost on last second FG
ARI blowout vs worst team in NFL
PIT huge comeback win aided by missed false starts
CIN tight victory against team starting Driskel with no healthy weapons
@KC comeback win vs awful defense
BAL trailed throughout which i think is very meaningful
@DEN ugly win

So they split against the 1-seed in their same division and were very close to 0-2, the rest of the division is a disaster and they lost one at home. SEA is the lone impressive win to me honestly that they led throughout, beat the following other QBs:

Allen in his 2nd start/Beathard/Carr 2x/Mayfield in 3rd start/injured Mariota/Keenum 1-1/Rosen/Big Ben/Driskel/Mahomes 1-1

So that's three rookies, two backups and one guy with nerve damage in his throwing arm. It's a little different asking them to hang around instead of cover the spread, but i was mystified at the +4 that was out there when they played in LA and do not think anything less than a FG would be enough for me to consider LAC

PS- the Ingram/Bosa passrush is nowhere near as effective against the option offense BAL is utilizing, Gordon again banged up and i'm truly trying to not be overly negative about a good team in what seems to be an average NFL
 
aplous said:
I'm the ultimate pessimist for my teams
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Its ok i can be a bit of both myself so i think its important that people reading our posts know that they might trust our opinions too much because we do know our own teams the best. Shoutout to Bank tho if i recall hes very reasonable about our Cards
 
Baltimore my fave, Rivers has to prove it to me in the playoffs as I like their team but like the Ravens better, Harbaugh coaching went pretty vanilla for a reason in that game at Stubhub (both teams did) so I don't expect it to play out the same, think Ravens might light up Chargers defense this go round. Not sure about weather yet.

Seahawks I like a bunch as well, playing so well down the stretch, running, playmaking QB, revamped playmaking on defense...seems like a low scoring game on paper, much prefer Russ to Dak in one possession.

Colts I'm on but will much prefer to wait out the 2h line, especially if behind. Luck just seems like that guy when it comes to the 4th quarter.

No clue Eagles/Bears, tend to lean Bears but line seems about right to me.
 
vanilla? BAL needed that one and the following to make the playoffs so i don't agree with that. The rest I do besides a lean to PHI, also wonder if you potentially miss all value when IND leads at halftime and then you need them to win by a certain amount to cover your 2H bet when the SU win would be enough at +2
 
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