***Wild Card Weekend Discussion Thread***

Status
Not open for further replies.
2daBank said:
Watson played and lit bama up in 2 national championships. To act as if he will someone stink/fold to the pressure of a wc playoff game is a huge stretch imo.
Click to expand...

Lol have you seen how inexperienced qb‘s often do in the playoffs? That was a freaking college game lmao
 
Mitchell I’ll listen to that. He very inexperienced. Rather insulting to say a guy who played as much big time football as Watson falls in same category as him or many guys who ever made their 1st playoff start for that matter.
 
I’ll tell you it the greatest call ever if Watson doesn’t play at least really well vs this Indy d, if not great. I’d be shocked more than I generally get in nfl If he played poorly. Doesn’t mean luck won’t outduel him but he gonna have too!
 
From WalterFootball:

Home Favorites:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU


Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU


To sum it up:

Home favorites: 4-13 ATS, 7-10 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 13-29-1 ATS, 14-29 SU

Not taking this as gospel, just sharing.
 
Ryno14 said:
This is just QBs making their first playoff starts - rookie or not.
Click to expand...

Seems trendy in the old NFL, certainly not something I could take into account much today. I'd even suffice it to say this feels like it's the most open playoffs in the last 20 years, the teams at the top have glaring weaknesses, which is what I usually look for (the fade angle). Can make a case for fading all 12 teams for significant reasons this year.

I do hate trends as predictors of what happens today, only vaguely find them effective in team sports but to each his own.
 
These are my Initial thoughts.

I’ve looked at 3 different forums and there is not much love for Houston. Can’t really count the dogshit performance Luck had against them week 4 either, he wasn’t right yet. Colts TT over looks juicy, but I always think most coaches are a bit conservative in the first half of WCW. This will be the only game this weekend where I wouldn’t consider a FH under though.

It’s all coming down to Watson. Luck is going to get his. I’d be very surprised if Houston covers and the game goes under. if you think Watson outplays Luck and covers then I’d just parlay the over with Hou.


Philly is a fairly big public doggie as well, which is scary. This number feels like the books took a side here. It feels like one of those game where the bears defense capitalized on turnovers and it’s a comfortable lead at half before becoming a one possession game. However, with Nick as a big dog and Tribby trying to match perception... this game is close barring a big turnover disparity, I don’t care how public it is.
First half unders based on confidence:

1.) Dallas /Sea
2.) Philly/ CHC
3. SD/BAL

At least One of these games goes under in the FH. I’m just gonna increase the Units if I lose the sat night one.

Example: bet 150 sat night. If it wins, stop.
If it loses, bet 315 sun afternoon. If that wins, stop. If it loses, bet 525. Yes I don’t mind risking all that on Philly Chicago. There’s no fkn way all three go over. If colts game goes under first half I probably start with 100 not 150.

Anywy, these sides are just my leans. typically, I go reddit trolling on the team I’m betting against and try to see their side. I’ll be back with final thoughts.
 
GWarner27 said:
great post @Hulu i didn't have any numbers myself and do not want to ask for your secret sauce, but i feel like my point was validated by that

The SEA feeling more HFA playing on an opponent's field since they miss out on their great HFA at home is an interesting point. I feel like it doesn't affect preparation too much besides maybe less time to do it due to travel, while it definitely affects referees and extra crowd noise can make it tougher on the OL/TE with getting off the ball and leads to more penalties/sacks.

With that said, Jerry World is huge and i'm not sure it's as difficult to hear as places like SEA for example, though I've only been there twice and it was for Big XII championship games that had split crowds
Click to expand...
I think HFA really depends on what venue it’s honestly.
Foxboro has a little as well as the Super Dome. (Locker Room & Hotels are bugged, not to mention Room Service Poison, Hookers)
@D-Woww has an strong case for HFA
;)
 
i don't see Watson struggling per se, but he has very little running game to work with and only Hopkins to throw to on the perimeter. That's not a good thing behind a poor OL if he's trying to match scores with Luck, who can shred the HOU secondary.

I may be looking for vengeance for that ridiculous Reich decision in the first game @IND, but IND should have swept the season series here and i believe we are getting a discount to that fact
 
Start with Doug Pederson going 10-2 SU in W15 and beyond.
<Now forget last season's meaningless W17 loss after Eagles secured the #1 playoff seed>
Doug Pederson 10-1 SU career in week 15 and beyond (10-0 SU L10) with the lone loss coming by 1 point at Baltimore (-5) in W15 of 2016.
Jhart2838 said:
Philly is a fairly big public doggie as well, which is scary.
Click to expand...
I don't think this is even true, but even if it is, since when has it mattered whether or not Philly was a public dog in the playoffs.
 
The most I saw on Philly anywhere was 57%. All other places had slight majority of tickets on Chicago
 
According to SI the only thing that isn't basically split is LAC @ 72% tickets

Don't think it much matters in the playoffs, pretty easy to figure out which way it will go come postseason

Guess it's surprising seeing Indy/Hou at 50/50 of tickets (no idea on money) but line has moved appropriately imo
 
I have colts too but looking at all the forums, I know it is a loser already. A lot of very good bettors and a lot of very bad bettors all on the same side. Bad bettor almost always prevails.
 
Jhart2838 said:
These are my Initial thoughts.

I’ve looked at 3 different forums and there is not much love for Houston. Can’t really count the dogshit performance Luck had against them week 4 either, he wasn’t right yet. Colts TT over looks juicy, but I always think most coaches are a bit conservative in the first half of WCW. This will be the only game this weekend where I wouldn’t consider a FH under though.

It’s all coming down to Watson. Luck is going to get his. I’d be very surprised if Houston covers and the game goes under. if you think Watson outplays Luck and covers then I’d just parlay the over with Hou.


Philly is a fairly big public doggie as well, which is scary. This number feels like the books took a side here. It feels like one of those game where the bears defense capitalized on turnovers and it’s a comfortable lead at half before becoming a one possession game. However, with Nick as a big dog and Tribby trying to match perception... this game is close barring a big turnover disparity, I don’t care how public it is.
First half unders based on confidence:

1.) Dallas /Sea
2.) Philly/ CHC
3. SD/BAL

At least One of these games goes under in the FH. I’m just gonna increase the Units if I lose the sat night one.

Example: bet 150 sat night. If it wins, stop.
If it loses, bet 315 sun afternoon. If that wins, stop. If it loses, bet 525. Yes I don’t mind risking all that on Philly Chicago. There’s no fkn way all three go over. If colts game goes under first half I probably start with 100 not 150.

Anywy, these sides are just my leans. typically, I go reddit trolling on the team I’m betting against and try to see their side. I’ll be back with final thoughts.
Click to expand...
Good stuff, thx for posting.
 
KJ said:
it's surprising seeing Indy/Hou at 50/50 of tickets
Click to expand...
I don't think enough has been said about the third meeting of the season between those two teams. Luck has never even done that before. And speaking of rookie quarterbacks in their first playoff game, how about rookie coach Frank Reich? Colts, Chargers, and Bears all feature coaches making their first career playoff appearances.
 
Jhart2838 said:
These are my Initial thoughts.

I’ve looked at 3 different forums and there is not much love for Houston. Can’t really count the dogshit performance Luck had against them week 4 either, he wasn’t right yet. Colts TT over looks juicy, but I always think most coaches are a bit conservative in the first half of WCW. This will be the only game this weekend where I wouldn’t consider a FH under though.

It’s all coming down to Watson. Luck is going to get his. I’d be very surprised if Houston covers and the game goes under. if you think Watson outplays Luck and covers then I’d just parlay the over with Hou.


Philly is a fairly big public doggie as well, which is scary. This number feels like the books took a side here. It feels like one of those game where the bears defense capitalized on turnovers and it’s a comfortable lead at half before becoming a one possession game. However, with Nick as a big dog and Tribby trying to match perception... this game is close barring a big turnover disparity, I don’t care how public it is.
First half unders based on confidence:

1.) Dallas /Sea
2.) Philly/ CHC
3. SD/BAL

At least One of these games goes under in the FH. I’m just gonna increase the Units if I lose the sat night one.

Example: bet 150 sat night. If it wins, stop.
If it loses, bet 315 sun afternoon. If that wins, stop. If it loses, bet 525. Yes I don’t mind risking all that on Philly Chicago. There’s no fkn way all three go over. If colts game goes under first half I probably start with 100 not 150.

Anywy, these sides are just my leans. typically, I go reddit trolling on the team I’m betting against and try to see their side. I’ll be back with final thoughts.
Click to expand...

Great Stuff Jh. GL. :dabs:
 
RetroVK said:
I have colts too but looking at all the forums, I know it is a loser already. A lot of very good bettors and a lot of very bad bettors all on the same side. Bad bettor almost always prevails.
Click to expand...

Already said it, just kinda hoping for an opportunity to go pretty big on em 2h. I know who I trust late for obvious reasons
 
austinhous said:
O'Brien career 33-2 when he carries the lead into halftime. Texans 1H+FG
Click to expand...

We went over this the last time he got punked after scoring first or whatever Austin. To each their own, I don't use trends in team sports but good luck.

I'm already on Indy +2 but if they are behind at HT 2h Indy will likely be my largest wager of the weekend
 
If Luck has a slow first half I say no way he has a slow second.

Not a big fan of that trend Austin. I mean it obviously includes games against garbage teams for god sakes my Jags who couldn‘t score a touchdown to save their lives in there haha and games where the opponent laid a clunker
 
Dude doesn't give up halftime leads. Seems pretty straightforward. What I am saying is that I wouldn't bet on the opposing team coming back from a halftime deficit. That strategy has literally failed 94% of the time. I don't think it's arbitrary at all. Yes I talked about O'Brien's first half scoring before, and that shit didn't work that day when I did say that, but I hit a nerve and I apologize. This is different. I don't think anyone should have gotten alarmed. A better way to say that on my part would have been, "Whomever you think wins, take them 1H and/or double result as well."
 
Last edited:
You didn't hit a nerve. I just think it's less relevant than their record on Saturdays. Again, to each his own.

That's some freak stuff imo that a coach I rate very poorly in many categories randomly is so great at not giving up the lead. He's going against a 4th quarter ninja if so.

Almost makes me blindly want to play against him next 10 times he's up at half, poor offensive division (especially sans Andy last 2 years doesn't hurt) but I refuse to believe it's his scheming/motivation.

Flipped a quarter once and it landed on heads 19 straight and won't lie, I did think it was the coin for a second. Ended up 47/53
 
ScopeY said:
No way would I take the under in ind/hou, if you dont like the over just skip it and move along, The colts are the fastest pace team in the league, houston is in the top 10... both defenses strengths are stopping the run, as most teams funnel passes to beat them... DVOA matchups point to good passing situations as well, houston is 31st worse vs WR1, 18th/20th/23rd vs WR2/WR3/TE respectively, but are #1 against the RB. Colts are kind of similar in terms of strengths/weakness when looking at those metrics
Click to expand...

Then I read this, I will prolly just stay colts ml, no point unless 1st half over hits, then maybe look to 2nd half under idk
 
KJ said:
You didn't hit a nerve. I just think it's less relevant than their record on Saturdays. Again, to each his own. That's some freak stuff imo that a coach I rate very poorly in many categories randomly is so great at not giving up the lead. He's going against a 4th quarter ninja if so. Almost makes me blindly want to play against him next 10 times he's up at half, poor offensive division (especially sans Andy last 2 years doesn't hurt) but I refuse to believe it's his scheming/motivation. Flipped a quarter once and it landed on heads 19 straight and won't lie, I did think it was the coin for a second. Ended up 47/53
Click to expand...
I still haven't bought any tickets yet. You got me leaning your way & fade the Texans ATS (#1 wager on the board). Let me run this by you - Texans have a 9-1 record this season when they've been able to rush 30+ times per game. Colts 7-1 this season when they score first. And when they score first it's always been 7+ points every single time, all eight games. That would also play into my opinion that the team who wins the game also wins 1H. Right now I'm leaning IND 1H+FG and first score IND touchdown. So do you think the Colts make it a point to jump ahead early, try and make HOU abandon the run & play catch up..?
 
austinhous said:
I still haven't bought any tickets yet. You got me leaning your way & fade the Texans ATS (#1 wager on the board). Let me run this by you - Texans have a 9-1 record this season when they've been able to rush 30+ times per game. Colts 7-1 this season when they score first. And when they score first it's always been 7+ points every single time, all eight games. That would also play into my opinion that the team who wins the game also wins 1H. Right now I'm leaning IND 1H+FG and first score IND touchdown. So do you think the Colts make it a point to jump ahead early, try and make HOU abandon the run & play catch up..?
Click to expand...

First Scoring Play Indy TD, +210
 
austinhous said:
I still haven't bought any tickets yet. You got me leaning your way & fade the Texans ATS (#1 wager on the board). Let me run this by you - Texans have a 9-1 record this season when they've been able to rush 30+ times per game. Colts 7-1 this season when they score first. And when they score first it's always been 7+ points every single time, all eight games. That would also play into my opinion that the team who wins the game also wins 1H. Right now I'm leaning IND 1H+FG and first score IND touchdown. So do you think the Colts make it a point to jump ahead early, try and make HOU abandon the run & play catch up..?
Click to expand...

To me, it's hard to know when teams play a 3rd time, division rivals obviously know each other and my guess is it played fairly closely to the vest early on trying not to lose it. I'm not great in breaking down matchups nor predicting tactics to the point you're asking, but let's be honest, teams rushing 30+ per game are generally winning, thus that number. And mobile QB who gets yardage on the ground even when initially attempting a pass play will bump those numbers as well.

Our styles of capping are so different, I'm just not a trend person with the exception of some I could count on one hand among all team sports. My guess is tied or within a FG or so at half and would prefer a 1h under, might play that. I would only go over in the 2h (and again, I'm actually hoping IND are behind at HT for a large 2h play on them) because I've seen the 2 TD+ Luck 4th qtr all to often and that ridiculous comeback against KC a few years ago in the playoffs will never escape my mind. He's looked like that again this season.

Houston probably hoping his arm finally hits the wall but I'm not banking on it.
 
Ryno14 said:
From WalterFootball:

Home Favorites:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU


Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU


To sum it up:

Home favorites: 4-13 ATS, 7-10 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 13-29-1 ATS, 14-29 SU

Not taking this as gospel, just sharing.
Click to expand...
Why isn't R.Wilson on this list? Obviously he has made multiple playoff starts but WalterFootball's data concerns me that Wilson is not listed. Thanks.
 
I'm on Colts and after much reading I'm pretty sure I'm wrong....seems like every time a lot are on one team and a few very good guys are opposite and line moves against me I end up one the wrong team...but most of my cake on Colts is teased up to 7.5 or 8

Like the under in Colts. Both teams will attempt to establish run and leave themselves in long 2nd/3rd down situations. I don't buy the weak secondary poor pass defense theory. They can both stuff the run and that will keep this game under 50 me thinks.

Like Seattle because Dak will have to play lights out to beat them and he rarely does. Once in a while but more often not while Russ plays big in big games and Garrett seems to fuck up every time the pressure is on.

Bet Bears because I love the points with the Eagles. Every time I love something this much I'm wrong.

Balt wins I think. Can't really see any reason to take the Chargers as much as I would like them to win so we don't have to face the Ravens in the divisional round.

So in the order that I like

Sides

Seattle
Balt
Eagles
Colts

Totals

Colts under
Boys over
Balt over
Bears under

Favorite plays in order

Tease Colts/Seattle
Seattle
Colts under

Good luck
 
I was on Hou both matchups this season and feel fortunate to win once. I have been a Colts doubter all season but no longer. Love the QB, love the coach, TY tough to stop...Huge Deshaun fan here ... just don’t think he has enough weapons around him to keep up. If Fuller was healthy I might feel differently.
 
Anybody have stat on how favorites of 6 or more have done ATS in playoff games?

*I guess post 106 provides some of that info
 
C-MAN said:
I was on Hou both matchups this season and feel fortunate to win once. I have been a Colts doubter all season but no longer. Love the QB, love the coach, TY tough to stop...Huge Deshaun fan here ... just don’t think he has enough weapons around him to keep up. If Fuller was healthy I might feel differently.
Click to expand...
I have yet to see Deshaun Watson lose a big game, with his legs and arms plus that defense, I see a 24-21 game
 
My analogy, and it may be a poor one, for the Chargers vs Ravens is akin to 2014 Super Bowl of Seahawks vs Broncos. A great but immobile QB versus a suffocating Defense along with a young mobile QB against a good but not great defense.

I took a +600 future on Ravens to win AFC and I am waiting to hope I get -2.5 but will take the Ravens at -3 if I have to. I actually decided to take the Ravens ML -150 for a fair amount also. Just think their D will win the game. Also we do have the angle of 1:00 pm start for west coast team coming east - not a determinative factor, just what it is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KJ
Well after going on Texans boards, nothing about their reasoning scares me off a colts teaser leg.

Colts +8/ open
Be bck will cowboys write up.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Eric Antrobus
Wild Card Weekend
Replies
4
Views
350
HUNT
HUNT
KJ
KJ Wild Card Weekend
Replies
12
Views
613
KJ
KJ
PappyOSU
Pappy's Picks NFL Divisional Round
Replies
8
Views
753
PappyOSU
PappyOSU
VirginiaCavs
Friday Discussion Thread
Replies
35
Views
326
KJ
KJ
ProV1Colt
NFL Playoffs & Wild Card Predictions 2023
Replies
9
Views
411
Gandolf
Gandolf
Back
Top