***Wild Card Weekend Discussion Thread***

Status
Not open for further replies.
I'm on em at +2, just potentially will be for more at HT all I was saying

Ravens needed it and it showed on defense but once they got the lead/game in control it seemed rather bland to me. I also just like the Ravens anyway, put a future on them to win it all. But to the point of play calling, not sure how much prep work Chargers can take out of that game for Lamar. I'm sure it will help some but to me he's just a different game in town. Also if he goes down Flacco doesn't bother me a bit.
 
the read offense is really hard to plan for besides the scheme (which doesn't matter nearly as much against Jackson's athleticism) and i'm sure there will be some other wrinkles that Harbaugh & co may have potentially saved for this game.

Though with the season on the line and potentially his employment, not sure that it actually makes sense to have saved anything whatsoever
 
I've only heard that it's likely up to Harbaugh to sign an extension and several teams may not hire a coach til they know if he does, it seems bizarre they were talking about potentially firing him then this morning the Ravens just hope he'll stay?
 
GWarner27 said:
Pete at least makes the playoffs each year

Separate from that comment, im very surprised to see so much DAL and LAC love in this thread
Click to expand...

Pretty tough to make a case for chargers when we just saw this game in la where it was important to both teams and balty pretty much physically dominated them. Maybe Lynn can make adjustments, he is a good defensive coach but there not a lot he can do about his team being blown off the LOS imo.

already made my case for dallas, certainly wouldn’t shock me if they lost but I have to go w the much stronger rush defense in a game with 2 teams who rely heavily on the run game to make offenses go. I will say i think Seattle has a better chance of scoring without ability to run cause Wilson is the man but I think they will have to while I believe Zeke will have a good game on the ground. The under is pretty appealing to me, maybe more than a side.
 
2daBank said:
Pretty tough to make a case for chargers when we just saw this game in la where it was important to both teams and balty pretty much physically dominated them. Maybe Lynn can make adjustments, he is a good defensive coach but there not a lot he can do about his team being blown off the LOS imo.

already made my case for dallas, certainly wouldn’t shock me if they lost but I have to go w the much stronger rush defense in a game with 2 teams who rely heavily on the run game to make offenses go. I will say i think Seattle has a better chance of scoring without ability to run cause Wilson is the man but I think they will have to while I believe Zeke will have a good game on the ground. The under is pretty appealing to me, maybe more than a side.
Click to expand...

haven't thought too much about SEA yet, but definitely think Wilson is the perfect QB for the DAL passrush because he's so elusive and will certainly put up points. I have little faith in Dak, though the dump it to Zeke offense has made him look very good recently. Cooper has made that offense more threatening, but i'm not sure he's the all-pro some of his stats since the trade have shown

Carroll's comments about trying to run the clock and not lose games worries me a bit, especially now that we've got the top 33% of teams left. I don't think DAL is a very good team, though, so SEA can get through this one (and the line tumbling tells me i'm not the only person).

Nobody liked my HCA question, but i'm not sure Cowboys Stadium has ever been worth that much
 
GWarner27 said:
also surprised that people like Anthony Lynn so much here. Maybe i'm losing my mind, but he's part of the reason (main?) that LAC has not been much better in recent years
Click to expand...

Terrible in game, good on every other day appears to be the consensus. Coaching a team that never plays a home game is very difficult, gotta give him that much.
 
i don't consider NFL HFA to be that valuable, but 12-4 all road games is the most impressive thing on the LAC resume
 
Looking back at the first Dallas-Seattle game:

- The venue changes (+ for DAL)
- Seattle was +3 in turnovers (+ for DAL to avoid duplicating, Dallas had 3 TOs only twice all year, Seattle caused 3 TOs only once the last nine weeks)
- Seattle was 7-16 on 3rd down (above season and last 3 game averages), Dallas was 3-13 (below season and last 3 game averages) (+ for DAL on reversion to mean)
- Seattle was without Doug Baldwin, Dallas didn't have Amari Cooper (push)

Game was basically lost in a killer 17-3 2nd quarter, where Seattle went 64 yards, 3-3 on 3rd downs, Cowboys responded with a 48 yard FG drive, Seattle hit a 52 yard bomb to Lockett, Dallas went 3 and out, Seattle got an 18 yard punt return by Lockett, then went 29 yards for a half ending FG.

Cowboys tried to rally in the 2nd half with four 50+ yard drives, but only came away with 10 points as Zeke fumbled and Dak threw a pick to Earl Thomas (out), BOTH in the redzone.

Based on the above I would expect the rematch to be much more competitive. It's still a tough match up for the Boys as they've had their biggest struggles against mobile QBs and tend to get cross eyed at times with misdirection offenses.

Actually like the OVER a good bit. Both teams have offensive styles that exploit the other teams weaknesses on D, and with Lockett and Cooper on the field there should be some big play opportunities. Lockett and Austin also add special teams explosiveness.
 
Almost assured is defenses will dominate in Dallas.

Both teams are very run heavy. Clock ticks.

Psssing games are ok. Nothing special.

Seattle defense playing well. Dallas is solid.

I could see a tight defensive affair here.

2 risk adverse coaches in Garret and Carrol and identity is defensive for both teams.
 
Seattle big zone team, play it more than almost any other team. That's where Dak has NOT had much success at all in his career and Cooper has not had a good game against it in D. All the more reason for Zeke to pound away.
 
detroit187 said:
Seattle big zone team, play it more than almost any other team. That's where Dak has NOT had much success at all in his career and Cooper has not had a good game against it in D. All the more reason for Zeke to pound away.
Click to expand...

I think the only other major zone team that Dallas faced was Indy... they got shut out by Indy
 
GWarner27 said:
Nobody liked my HCA question, but i'm not sure Cowboys Stadium has ever been worth that much
Click to expand...

FWIW I think HFA is a bit overrated these days and is getting weaker as time goes on. The reasons for this probably deserve their own thread but my math puts average HFA across the league presently at about 2.65 so I use 2.5 as a baseline and adjust individual teams from there.

I have Dallas' HFA as a slightly below average 2 pts. Until this season they have been really mediocre at Jerryworld. Then this year they have been great at home as others have mentioned. What to make of that? Is it an anomaly or has something changed? Time will tell but until I know, I am going with the former. I still don't think they have a strong HFA.

Of course theres another side to the equation as well. I have Seattle as the best HFA in the league (surprise surprise) at 4 pts so leaving home is, for them, more significant than other teams. So that may up the HFA for Dallas in this particular matchup.

I jumped on the +3 at open just because I felt it was the wrong number. My numbers make this a pk to -1 for Dallas
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I think the only other major zone team that Dallas faced was Indy... they got shut out by Indy
Click to expand...

struggled, but the shutout was aided by a blocked FG + failure inside the 3 on 4th & GL and then chasing points instead of kicking FGs.

Certainly wasn't a good game and the zone may have been a reason for that, but DAL was in position to score a fair amount
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I think the only other major zone team that Dallas faced was Indy... they got shut out by Indy
Click to expand...
I'll try to get some more info on Dak vs the Zone soon. Though if SEA can't stop the run or score it won't matter. Probably more relevant for prop bets or fantasy stuff tbh. And perhaps under.
 
Just remember this.....Cooper not with Dallas first time...the game vs Giants was great practice to get TE involved.....I think Dallas has huge upside offensively....D has been suspect but I think they will contain Wilson.....Dallas 34-18
 
great post @Hulu i didn't have any numbers myself and do not want to ask for your secret sauce, but i feel like my point was validated by that

The SEA feeling more HFA playing on an opponent's field since they miss out on their great HFA at home is an interesting point. I feel like it doesn't affect preparation too much besides maybe less time to do it due to travel, while it definitely affects referees and extra crowd noise can make it tougher on the OL/TE with getting off the ball and leads to more penalties/sacks.

With that said, Jerry World is huge and i'm not sure it's as difficult to hear as places like SEA for example, though I've only been there twice and it was for Big XII championship games that had split crowds
 
I like Colts Texans under. Watson first ever playoff game. Colts D much improved. Texans D is awesome, will keep Indy one-dimensional
 
Assume Bears/Eagles under will be popular, if the field conditions are already being made an issue it should be in their heads all week if anything. Be something if Foles goes into Soldier Field and lights that defense up.
 
Indy/Texans O/U keeps going up. May be good to wait closer to kick-off if you wanna play the under?!
 
No way would I take the under in ind/hou, if you dont like the over just skip it and move along, The colts are the fastest pace team in the league, houston is in the top 10... both defenses strengths are stopping the run, as most teams funnel passes to beat them... DVOA matchups point to good passing situations as well, houston is 31st worse vs WR1, 18th/20th/23rd vs WR2/WR3/TE respectively, but are #1 against the RB. Colts are kind of similar in terms of strengths/weakness when looking at those metrics
 
Maybe I’m under the Foles spell, but the PHI defense won the title last season. Their weakness this year has been the secondary, which seems to be improving and is anyone confident Trubisky can take advantage of that?

He’s a huge reason i don’t think i can resist the now 6.5 I’m seeing.

I am unsure why @D-Woww feels an atrocious Foles game coming, though it may be CHI being awesome on that side, but he’s gotta understand that being a game manager can win him yet another so i don’t see him taking too many chances to potentially turn the ball over if the other side isn’t scoring a ton. That would translate to under, which i can support.

To me, this game will be decided by what points Nagy is able to scheme CHI into, and how long will that last before adjustments are made? I remember the opener followed this script and it wasn’t enough to beat GB when Kizer was handing the ball to Mack. Phi is a live dog here who can win this game with even an average Foles performance. As soon as i see 7, I’m grabbing it. Think it should be closer to 3
 
Let’s not forget Dallas was in a horrible spot vs Indy so would throw that game out of your analysis. I’m liking Indy, Dal, Balt and leaning Phi.
 
I get that Colts Hou looks like easy over on paper and i’d bet that in reg season but I think its not the same in the playoffs
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I like Colts Texans under. Watson first ever playoff game. Colts D much improved. Texans D is awesome, will keep Indy one-dimensional
Click to expand...

Pass D stinks, all the way through. Covering WRs or TE's they stink. I won a fantasy title because Ertz was playing them week 16. It was comical how they tried to cover him. Foles went bananas. Luck has gone bananas on them as has TY. Ebron scored on them both games.
 
detroit187 said:
Pass D stinks, all the way through. Covering WRs or TE's they stink. I won a fantasy title because Ertz was playing them week 16. It was comical how they tried to cover him. Foles went bananas. Luck has gone bananas on them as has TY. Ebron scored on them both games.
Click to expand...
Yep. Texans run defense is elite but the back seven is mediocre and slow (no surprise Hilton torched Hou in both matchups this season)
 
Yes but Luck wont hit the over by himself. Watson first ever playoff game I don‘t think he‘ll help much
Concerning the Eagles game, Houston has been awful away all season
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Yes but Luck wont hit the over by himself. Watson first ever playoff game I don‘t think he‘ll help much
Concerning the Eagles game, Houston has been awful away all season
Click to expand...

Watson played and lit bama up in 2 national championships. To act as if he will someone stink/fold to the pressure of a wc playoff game is a huge stretch imo.
 
GWarner27 said:
i don't think there's a chance DAL gets to 34 unless pigs are flying
Click to expand...
It's all up to Dak! Guys are open every play! Gallup, Beasley and Jarwin have come along way since week 3...Cooper huge addition. Seattle D will be trying to stop Zeke which opens for big plays. Can Dallas score Tds in red zone is only concern.
 
ScopeY said:
No way would I take the under in ind/hou, if you dont like the over just skip it and move along, The colts are the fastest pace team in the league, houston is in the top 10... both defenses strengths are stopping the run, as most teams funnel passes to beat them... DVOA matchups point to good passing situations as well, houston is 31st worse vs WR1, 18th/20th/23rd vs WR2/WR3/TE respectively, but are #1 against the RB. Colts are kind of similar in terms of strengths/weakness when looking at those metrics
Click to expand...

completely agree, I may get in on the over actually. these teams know the qb is the star and in a game like this they are going to put the ball in the qbs hands, throw throw throw, and not be worried about establishing a run game or taking time off the clock
 
just an fyi, it seems like a lot of people in this thread are implying that HFA is not significant, I do want to point out one thing; there has not been a team in the super bowl who won a playoff road game since the ravens/niners super bowl
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

KJ
KJ Wild Card Weekend
Replies
12
Views
596
KJ
KJ
Eric Antrobus
Wild Card Weekend
Replies
4
Views
346
HUNT
HUNT
PappyOSU
Pappy's Picks NFL Divisional Round
Replies
8
Views
745
PappyOSU
PappyOSU
ProV1Colt
NFL Playoffs & Wild Card Predictions 2023
Replies
9
Views
402
Gandolf
Gandolf
bones
Bet the Board Podcast Wild Card Weekend
Replies
1
Views
232
bones
bones
Back
Top