Weeks 0 and 1

[Yanks27Sox9]

Two weeks and counting down...
How's it going around here, guys? I'll probably have to bail again once the fall baseball season gets going in a month, but for now life isn't too busy. Will try to keep posting as much as I can, either way. Still have a lot of work to do with Saturday's games for week one, but here's how I'm leaning with the rest of the dates/games.


8/27 week zero:
Nevada @ NMST = lean NMST and the under (really like both at the moment)
Nebraska @ NW = lean Nebraska and the under (new OC, and not sure what to make of the game being in Ireland)
UConn @ Utah St = too many points, Aggies going to Bama next, but not sure I can stomach backing UConn
Wyoming @ Illinois = lean Illy
Charlotte @ FAU = lean FAU and the over
NT @ UTEP = a true coin flip game, but leaning UTEP (even though they're going to Oklahoma the next week)
Vandy @ Hawaii = not touching this shitfest yet, but still kinda leaning Vandy

9/1 week one:
WVU @ Pitt = lean Pitt (and I've already played it)
CMU @ Okie Lite = line is spot on, but like points here (total or TT over)
Ball St @ Tenny = no opinion yet, but can I stomach Ball St? (not much different thoughts as with UConn, in that it's too many points)
Penn St @ Purdue = another coin flip. want to find a way to back Purdue, but still lean PSU (and their defense)
LT @ Mizzou = will most likely be taking a flyer on LT here
NMST @ Minny = not opinion until we see the week zero game for NMST

9/2 week one:
VT @ ODU = lean ODU here (and I've already played it)
WMU @ MSU = lean MSU here (and I've already played it)
Temple @ Duke = slight lean to Duke, but not touching the ACC/AAC bottom feeder match up
Illinois @ Indiana = lean Indiana a bit, but need to see week zero for illy
TCU @ Colorado = lean TCU and their TT over

9/3 week one:
(coming soon)

9/4 week one:
FSU @ LSU = lean under, and maybe FSU, but another coin flip game

9/5 week one:
Clemson @ GT = lean Clemson and their TT over (and I've already played the side)



:tiphat:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

So those are my thoughts on everything except for saturday 9/3. Have a few games that I've already played (as I noted above). Way early, but I'll adjust as necessary.


Pittsburgh (-7) @ -105 for 1
Better running game, they should control the trenches on both sides of the ball, and just a better/stronger defense. Lets see this d line get to work! Anyhow, if the spread comes down I will hit it again. Wanted to be sure to get it at a TD though for now.

Old Dominion (+7.5) for 1/2
Wanted to get something on this game at more than a TD, as I think it could come down to 6 or 6.5 at some point. Down year for the Hokies, especially with having to rebuild their offense. Monarchs should have a good season, led by a decent SBC offense.

Michigan St (-19) for 1
This line was up to 20 elsewhere, so played it early at another shop in case we see a 21 somewhere down the road. The Spartan DL and LB should contain the WMU run, so should have no problem controlling things and pulling away in this one.

Clemson (-21) @ -120 for 1
Another one I played too early, but the line should only rise. If for some reason it comes below 21, I'll definitely hit it again. Clemson will just absolutely own the trenches here, and it's just wildly lopsided when comparing these defenses. Not sure how GT can or will move the ball.

 

[horses]

Backyard Brawl featuring 2 former USC quarterbacks. Welcome to college football, 2022. Don't sleep on the WVA front...I think both OL will struggle.

The ODU OC just resigned a couple of days ago; no idea what this means. Maybe addition by subtraction? Who knows.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Backyard Brawl featuring 2 former USC quarterbacks. Welcome to college football, 2022. Don't sleep on the WVA front...I think both OL will struggle.

The ODU OC just resigned a couple of days ago; no idea what this means. Maybe addition by subtraction? Who knows.

How weird...
Hired in January, leaves a couple weeks before the season. No idea what to make of that either. Rahne is an old OC, and Reihner called plays in their bowl game, so "who knows" is right. Would be interested to learn the story behind this though.


"Backyard Brawl featuring 2 former USC quarterbacks. Welcome to college football, 2022." - Perfectly said.

You're probably right. WVU has solid lines on both sides. They're just not to/at Pitt's level. But yes, Pitt's OL could have some issues of their own in this one too.

 

[B.A.R.]

Oh snap, there he is.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

For the moment at least ;-)


Some additional thoughts on 0/1...

I'm 100% off that Vandy/Hawaii "lean." Line is down to 6.5 pts, just begging us to back Vandy on the islands. Both teams are crap, tons of unknowns, weird ass game, so definitely not going to touch this one. Other fish in the sea.

BYU @ USF...

Still working on the 9/3 games, and everything is telling me to back the Mormons on the road. Even all the PR #s I use have this around 15 to 16 pts. That said, my gut is really telling me to keep looking at USF. BYU has Baylor on deck, and Oregon in the hole, so thinking their focus will be off just enough in the heat/humidity of Florida. Anyone have any thoughts on this game?

Added my thoughts from another thread: BYU has a helluva solid team, and just about everything I use points to them covering the number. That said, they have huge games against Baylor and Oregon the next two weeks...so my gut keeps telling me to look more at USF. Mid 90s in Tampa with 60%+ humidity on a late August Saturday...4pm game (corrected), so at least two quarters will be steamy AF on the Mormons. South Florida returns a lot of both sides of the ball. Sure, they're outclassed by BYU on paper, but situationally BYU has gotta be looking ahead a bit...wanting to come out of this game with a W of course, but also healthy and ready for the next two games. Last year they covered the spread at BYU. Will they do it again this year at home? I'm thinking it looks promising...


Still lots of work left to do. Fwiw, I'll definitely be adding these teams in the near future, but waiting/hoping for better numbers:

LA Tech (looking for +20)
James Madison (looking for less than a TD)
Boise St (looking for +4)
Cincy (looking for +7.5)

Arkansas might be a little too much for Cincinnati, but I've still got this as a close game that could go either way. Will of course take it at a flat 7, but hoping for a bit better.

Boise is the better team in this game. Sure, give the Beavs their home field advantage...but I'll still back the Broncos at +3 or better.

James Madison will absolutely be as fired up as possible to kick off their 1st FBS season, but 7 or more (even at home) might be a tough ask.

LA Tech has already been mentioned in another thread. As much of a play against Mizzou giving that many points as anything else.


Anyhow, just some additional mid week thoughts for now. :tiphat:

 

[carolinablue]

For the moment at least ;-)


Some additional thoughts on 0/1...

I'm 100% off that Vandy/Hawaii "lean." Line is down to 6.5 pts, just begging us to back Vandy on the islands. Both teams are crap, tons of unknowns, weird ass game, so definitely not going to touch this one. Other fish in the sea.

BYU @ USF...

Still working on the 9/3 games, and everything is telling me to back the Mormons on the road. Even all the PR #s I use have this around 15 to 16 pts. That said, my gut is really telling me to keep looking at USF. BYU has Baylor on deck, and Oregon in the hole, so thinking their focus will be off just enough in the heat/humidity of Florida. Anyone have any thoughts on this game?

Added my thoughts from another thread: BYU has a helluva solid team, and just about everything I use points to them covering the number. That said, they have huge games against Baylor and Oregon the next two weeks...so my gut keeps telling me to look more at USF. Mid 90s in Tampa with 60%+ humidity on Saturday...1pm game, so all 4 quarters will be steamy AF on the Mormons. South Florida returns a lot of both sides of the ball. Sure, they're outclassed by BYU on paper, but situationally BYU has gotta be looking ahead a bit...wanting to come out of this game with a W of course, but also healthy and ready for the next two games. Last year they covered the spread at BYU. Will they do it again this year at home? I'm thinking it looks promising...


Still lots of work left to do. Fwiw, I'll definitely be adding these teams in the near future, but waiting/hoping for better numbers:

LA Tech (looking for +20)
James Madison (looking for less than a TD)
Boise St (looking for +4)
Cincy (looking for +7.5)

Arkansas might be a little too much for Cincinnati, but I've still got this as a close game that could go either way. Will of course take it at a flat 7, but hoping for a bit better.

Boise is the better team in this game. Sure, give the Beavs their home field advantage...but I'll still back the Broncos at +3 or better.

James Madison will absolutely be as fired up as possible to kick off their 1st FBS season, but 7 or more (even at home) might be a tough ask.

LA Tech has already been mentioned in another thread. As much of a play against Mizzou giving that many points as anything else.


Anyhow, just some additional mid week thoughts for now. :tiphat:

Great stuff, appreciate you taking the time to post. Cincy is on my radar screen as I am hoping to get 7.5 at 125 or less, but not sure it will happen. Also have BYU on my list but not excited about the 11.5-12 line on the road, but think they should/could win by 20+. Boise is another as BM has 4 117 and I would probably take that once I get my account funded in a few days. Actually leaning MTSU rather than JMU, especially if I can get 8 or more by game time, as I see that one as a FG game either way. Got nothing on La Tech as that line seems about right to me and I have no feel for it at all.

Actually like MSU more than Mizzou in terms of 20pt favs. Last but not least, I initially thought about Vandy and am still tempted now that 6.5 is out there, but I think I am just gonna play the over in that one and hope for a fun fireworks type game, because I will be mad at myself if I take Vandy on the road and they win something like 35-34 on a blocked xp or something.

Again, thanks for the post, can't wait for the season to get underway!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Great stuff, appreciate you taking the time to post. Cincy is on my radar screen as I am hoping to get 7.5 at 125 or less, but not sure it will happen. Also have BYU on my list but not excited about the 11.5-12 line on the road, but think they should/could win by 20+. Boise is another as BM has 4 117 and I would probably take that once I get my account funded in a few days. Actually leaning MTSU rather than JMU, especially if I can get 8 or more by game time, as I see that one as a FG game either way. Got nothing on La Tech as that line seems about right to me and I have no feel for it at all.

Actually like MSU more than Mizzou in terms of 20pt favs. Last but not least, I initially thought about Vandy and am still tempted now that 6.5 is out there, but I think I am just gonna play the over in that one and hope for a fun fireworks type game, because I will be mad at myself if I take Vandy on the road and they win something like 35-34 on a blocked xp or something.

Again, thanks for the post, can't wait for the season to get underway!

Thanks, CB. Me too!!!

Yep, same thoughts with Cincy...waiting/hoping for a better line. Same story with Boise...although I almost played it today. Just don't want to see it move the other way, which wouldn't be a surprise.

Yeah, BYU should win by 14 to 17 pts imo...at least how i'm capping it on paper. Still love the situational angle for USF though. In the other thread where it came up, the author made a great point about playing that game in progress. Short of some big line movement, that's probably what I'll end up doing...finding the best time to back USF if it materializes.

I'll definitely be playing La Tech small at some point. Memphis/Messy line is just too tight, so I ended up teasing it for fun.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

One week away!!! :bouncing:

Almost hit Boise St today, but would still love that 3.5 to become a 4, so held off (for now). Still don't know what to make of the game in Ireland. Lean more to the under than to Nebby now, but we'll see. Actually might end up only having one play this first Saturday, as the Nevada/NMST under has already gotten away from me by falling 3 pts this week.


New Mexico St (+10) @ -114 for 1/2
This one's been talked about in another thread. Nevada lost a ton from last year, and have a few angles going against them. Conversely, some solid trends for Kill in what should be a much, much lower scoring game than they had last year. I know it's NMST, but is this Nevada team really gonna win by more than 10 points on the road? Gotta have at least one play for the opening Saturday of games, so this home dog is it.

Ohio St (-6.5)
NCST (-1)
Mississippi St (-6.5)
1 to win .935
I also screwed around and added this teaser...a state school teaser...partly to get my OCD mind off of these games and focused onto others. Think I've been reading too much Steele lately, as he loves all 3 of these teams. Anyhow, obviously love them too...talked about one of them (Messy) in another thread...and just thought the lines were pretty much spot on for these three games...so impatient me (with too much time to look at the games right now) went and made the 3 lines/games more palatable. If nothing else, it'll keep me from laying 16 to 17 on Miss St over Memphis...or laying 10+ pts on the road with NCST @ ECU.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

A couple more plays for week one. Too many leans and likes, so still working through it all. Having so much time to keep analyzing things is both a good and bad thing, I think.


Boise St (+3.5) for 1
Felt this line was moving away from me. Mentioned a few posts ago that I was hoping for a +4, but 2 of my 3 spots has the 3' juiced now. Could so easily see this going to 3 at any point this week, so played it today. Bottom line though, I've got Boise as the better/more complete team here...as I think most of us do...so even though it's in Corvallis, catching a FG+ is icing on the cake. The Beavs are no pushover though.

Miami,OH/Kentucky over 51.5 for 1
Much prefer unders to overs early, but whether Rodriguez is suspended or not doesn't really matter. Both defenses are going to have problems against the pass, and the Wildcats will run well too. Have this right at the spread (20-21), with Kentucky scoring 42-45 points and Miami putting up 21-24 of their own. May be wrong, maybe too generous towards the Redhawks, but I've got this well over the number so added it.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Some more leans for now too...

Add the under to that Cincy/Arkansas game
BG/UCLA under
USC TT over
UNC/Appy St under
Troy/Ole Miss under
Louisville (line is moving away from me though)

USF will be an in progess play
Lean Utah too, but will most likely just watch that one. Helluva game though.
FSU (but will wait on that one)

More to come.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Updated card as of tonight.

Week 0:
New Mexico St (+10) @ -114 for 1/2

Week 1:
Pittsburgh (-7) @ -105 for 1

Old Dominion (+7.5) for 1/2
Michigan St (-19) for 1

Boise St (+3.5) for 1
Miami,OH/Kentucky over 51.5 for 1

Ohio St (-6.5) NCST (-1) Mississippi St (-6.5) for 1 to win .935

Clemson (-21) @ -120 for 1

:tiphat:

 

[2daBank]

Debating how I want to mess w clemson, kinda like idea of tech team total under assuming 13.5 is right, don’t see them moving the ball on tigers d but kinda want to see DJ look better before laying 3 tds w them, they might not need to throw a pass to cover this tho!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

well, glad i added Boise St sunday night. woke up monday morning to see 2.5s everywhere, but it's since come back to 3 (and juiced at that). good to finally start seeing some line movement though with some of the week one games again. Cincy fell instead of rose, unfortunately...but JMU fell too, if I still want it. still working on so much of the week one card, so trying to remain somewhat patient.


Talked a bunch about the BYU @ USF game already. Think BYU is clearly the better team, and should cover this easily on paper...but with it being the first game, in uncomfortable heat, and with both Baylor and Oregon lined up for the next two weeks...I'm really liking USF situationally, and will most likely play this game/side in progress. Only bring it up again, because I have another very similar game that I love. Louisville @ Syracuse.

Cuse is solid, and should be better than LY...but they've just got a brutal schedule the 2nd half of their season. Anyways, not selling them short...just really like Louisville's offense, and believe they will cover this spread fairly easily. The 4 points is an appropriate line...I'm just much higher on the Cardinals overall. That said, it's a conference road game to kick off the season...and like BYU, Louisville has two huge games on deck for the following two weeks...a short week with a trip to UCF, then FSU at home the following week. That's 2 big conference games the first 3 weeks of Sept, and 2 tough games to look forward to directly after Cuse. So situationally, even though it's not the exact same scenario as BYU/USF (and I obviously like opposing sides in the two contests), this game in Syracuse could turn into something more difficult than I initially expect. Bottom line, I want to take Louisville and lay the 4 points in this one...but I'm most likely going to wait and play this game/side in progress as well, once I can get a better feel of how things get started/etc.

Hopefully with both of these I'll be able to find some solid/better value in game. At least that's the plan as of now. The ACC is gonna be a dogfight this season. Excellent conference.

 

[Hulu]

Old Dom is on my radar as well. I'd love to hear your thoughts on them when you have a moment.

 

[2daBank]

I have mixed feelings on the ville/cuse game also, at this point I almost think I’ve waited and missed ville best number might see them get bet up further and talk myself into taking points w cuse! I really don’t know! Lol.

I agree with you ville offense should be really good, I used to like Satterfiekd but I’ve kinda soured on him some. Last year there were several games ville should have won and gave them away in the 4th qrtr! Ended up losing 4 games by 6 points or less, We often see teams like that have massive improvements in their win total the following year but I also worry that cuse very physical run game with that rb and qb who a load himself to bring down they could really wear ville down as the game goes on! I think run defense was a real problem for ville last year and I see some the same potential problems w them this year as they look like a front 7 that prob be better getting after the qb than stuffing the run! Which leads me back to thinking cuse could wear this defense down.

If I can get +4.5 on cuse I’d be very tempted, at same time I think there a case to play ville 1st half as they had a propensity to jump out on teams wit that explosive offense! Maybe it be better to play ville 1st half then if that cashes should be able to get a even better number on cuse in 2nd half if I like the way things are looking, namely cuse having success with time consuming run heavy drives! Fatigue early in the year gotta be a factor so it just a matter if cuse qb can be good enough on 3rc downs so they can continue shoving the run game down ville smallish dline throat!!

As fun it is to have conf games right out the gates I really wish teams got a tune up before jumping right into the conf season! As you referenced Ville has a couple Big games for them right after this one with a trip to ucf then fsu coming to ville in a game both teams really need to win!

 

[2daBank]

Another thing to the point of thinking cuse could wear ville down they brought in a new OC that likes to go fast. The oline is a pretty big road grading type, they really could lean on ville and wear them down late IF the qb can make plays on 3rd down to keep drives moving. Cuse d has been pretty good getting pressure so Cunningham will have to have his Willie beaman invisible juice flowing! Lol. He certainly capable of that and he can torch ya for some monster plays with his legs or cannon throwing it deep to one those speedsters on outside! Really could see this being a game that ville hits big plays for scores but cuse has 10-15 play drives which why I lean ville 1st half but cuse late.

Ville kicked the shit out of cuse 41-3 last year so maybe I’m putting way too much thought into this!! Lmfao

 

[2daBank]

I think both offensive lines are gonna have the edge In that ville/cuse game. Total of 58, I don’t really like to play bunch of overs in the early weeks but sure feels like could very take 30+ to win this game!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I'll come back to those later tonight, guys. Jumping on to add two more plays. 1H lines came out at BM for week zero, and I couldn't resist a small play on one of my leans in that Ireland game. Still lean toward the Cornhuskers, fwiw, even at -13 which seems crazy...but the 1H under was worth a small play.


Nebraska/Northwestern 1H under 26 for 1/2
This game's under has been talked about in a couple other threads. Wasn't sure what to make of a game in Ireland, but the first half was enough to get me off the fence. Let these teams feel each other out, getting used to the field/atmosphere/etc, and run the ball. Looks like rain on Friday in Dublin, so hopefully it's still a bit sloppy. Either way, the game looks like a solid under (as discussed elsewhere), but hoping the 1H takes away any late shenanigans from screwing things up.

SDST (-5.5) for 1
The line came down, and fell below 6 at BoL, so I couldn't resist adding it. First off, a line of 6-7 is appropriate (per PR #s) imo. Zona is improved from last year (how could they not be lol), and the Aztecs won't win as many games as LY. That said, I'll briefly get into the reasons why I really like this play/side. SDST is opening up their new stadium. No way they lose this game, situationally. Both teams have new QBs, and both offenses should be improved. The Aztec defense is very, very good though, and I don't see Zona doing much against them. My one concern for SDST is their o-Line, but conversely there are only 2 Pac-12 defenses that I'd rate worse overall than Zona (Wazzou and Colorado). I know Fisch is working to turn this program around, but they haven't won a road opener since '17, and haven't won a road game since Colorado in early '19. Also 11-26 ATS as a road dog the last 10 years. Bottom line they're a 2.5 win team TY, with an ass kicking from Messy St looking at them in their hm opener the following week. On the other side, SDST wins their home openers...typically against weak competition...but like I said, a brand spankin new stadium (on campus, i think). If that's not motivation, after Carson, I don't know what is. Have always liked Hoke...and more importantly, I really like their new QB (and the backup)...and despite the o-line concern, they have good RBs and solid depth. The Mountain West will be a tough conference, with some very solid defenses, but SDST could still be in the mix. Anyhow, here are some of the SP+ numbers that I think show much more of a discrepancy between these teams than the PR #s typically will show. Zona is at 2.7 wins, with a -10.5 SP+ (offense at 19.2 and defense at 29.7). SDST is at 8.0 wins, with a 3.3 SP+ (offense at 23.2 and defense at 19.9). I get that Zona is an improved team though, looking/trending up (from the absolute depths lol), and that SDST will come no where close to the 12-2 record of LY. That said, to sum all that up...better QB, better running game, and vastly superior defense opening up a new stadium to begin their season. That's why I'm on board.

 

[2daBank]

I heard who went to sdst to play qb for them but forget who it is?!? Lol. I like Hoke to a extent, like for unders and to play against him when I’m getting bunch of points cause their offenses leave a lot to be desired!! This isn’t exactly a big number to cover so not saying that about this game, just sdst in general as they play such good d and so many slobberknocker low scoring games!

Oh shit. Is their qb gonna be former hokie Burmeister? I got mixed feelings bout him but probably is a upgrade over last year! They beat zona down at zona last year! Their defense looks to be strong as always! Has zona offense improved enough to score a lot more than the 14 they put up at home with only 230 yards in this game? They managed 8 1st downs vs sdst last year! Averaged only 2.1 ypc and were sacked 4x! While a sdst offense I wasn’t a big fan of went for 454, 271 on the ground!! Safe to say this was total domination!

There is a lot to like about what Fisch is doing here, top 25 recruiting class is shocking! Sounds like he hit the portal hard and I thought at times they showed some heart last year. All that said I agree with you it prob gonna take more time and they facing a program that well established and never been shy bout knocking off pac-12 teams! Think I might join you on this one!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I heard who went to sdst to play qb for them but forget who it is?!? Lol. I like Hoke to a extent, like for unders and to play against him when I’m getting bunch of points cause their offenses leave a lot to be desired!! This isn’t exactly a big number to cover so not saying that about this game, just sdst in general as they play such good d and so many slobberknocker low scoring games!

Oh shit. Is their qb gonna be former hokie Burmeister? I got mixed feelings bout him but probably is a upgrade over last year! They beat zona down at zona last year! Their defense looks to be strong as always! Has zona offense improved enough to score a lot more than the 14 they put up at home with only 230 yards in this game? They managed 8 1st downs vs sdst last year! Averaged only 2.1 ypc and were sacked 4x! While a sdst offense I wasn’t a big fan of went for 454, 271 on the ground!! Safe to say this was total domination!

There is a lot to like about what Fisch is doing here, top 25 recruiting class is shocking! Sounds like he hit the portal hard and I thought at times they showed some heart last year. All that said I agree with you it prob gonna take more time and they facing a program that well established and never been shy bout knocking off pac-12 teams! Think I might join you on this one!

yup, you've got it. i didn't even mention last year's game, as Zona was preparing to hit rock bottom later in the season, but that was an ass kicking. Aztec defense should be just as good, they'll be more balanced on offense too (Burmeister, Haskell, and Crum the QB depth).
De Laura at QB an upgrade for Zona, and they did have success with the portal, but it's not enough. I've got them at 3 wins this season. Baby steps...

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I think both offensive lines are gonna have the edge In that ville/cuse game. Total of 58, I don’t really like to play bunch of overs in the early weeks but sure feels like could very take 30+ to win this game!

Another thing to the point of thinking cuse could wear ville down they brought in a new OC that likes to go fast. The oline is a pretty big road grading type, they really could lean on ville and wear them down late IF the qb can make plays on 3rd down to keep drives moving. Cuse d has been pretty good getting pressure so Cunningham will have to have his Willie beaman invisible juice flowing! Lol. He certainly capable of that and he can torch ya for some monster plays with his legs or cannon throwing it deep to one those speedsters on outside! Really could see this being a game that ville hits big plays for scores but cuse has 10-15 play drives which why I lean ville 1st half but cuse late.

Ville kicked the shit out of cuse 41-3 last year so maybe I’m putting way too much thought into this!! Lmfao

I have mixed feelings on the ville/cuse game also, at this point I almost think I’ve waited and missed ville best number might see them get bet up further and talk myself into taking points w cuse! I really don’t know! Lol.

I agree with you ville offense should be really good, I used to like Satterfiekd but I’ve kinda soured on him some. Last year there were several games ville should have won and gave them away in the 4th qrtr! Ended up losing 4 games by 6 points or less, We often see teams like that have massive improvements in their win total the following year but I also worry that cuse very physical run game with that rb and qb who a load himself to bring down they could really wear ville down as the game goes on! I think run defense was a real problem for ville last year and I see some the same potential problems w them this year as they look like a front 7 that prob be better getting after the qb than stuffing the run! Which leads me back to thinking cuse could wear this defense down.

If I can get +4.5 on cuse I’d be very tempted, at same time I think there a case to play ville 1st half as they had a propensity to jump out on teams wit that explosive offense! Maybe it be better to play ville 1st half then if that cashes should be able to get a even better number on cuse in 2nd half if I like the way things are looking, namely cuse having success with time consuming run heavy drives! Fatigue early in the year gotta be a factor so it just a matter if cuse qb can be good enough on 3rc downs so they can continue shoving the run game down ville smallish dline throat!!

As fun it is to have conf games right out the gates I really wish teams got a tune up before jumping right into the conf season! As you referenced Ville has a couple Big games for them right after this one with a trip to ucf then fsu coming to ville in a game both teams really need to win!

Like i said, I think Cuse is pretty good (returns a lot) and by no means am I selling them short. I like the over too, btw...but really like Ville to win here. If I play this one, i think it'll be in progress though...unless that line comes back to a flat 3 pts.

Ville has absolutely destroyed them the L2 years, and is 8-2 ATS L10 in the series. I like Ville because I believe their offense will absolutely torch the Syracuse defense, even though it's just the first game. Don't like the Cuse d-line or their secondary.
Syracuse should be better on offense, and not be so one dimensional with the run. And yes, I somewhat agree about Louisville's defense...but that said, they also added from the portal and I believe their d-line will be better than we think/predict. Secondary isn't bad either.
Ville held Cuse to 184 yards LY (138 & 46). Ole Miss, Wake, Virginia, and Kentucky carved them up. I don't remember their injury history, and not looking it up, but the defense wasn't too bad in conference looking it over.

You're right about what the Syracuse game plan will be. That's gotta be their hope. I'm just not sold that'll work. I'm higher in Ville's defense, and Cuse won't be able to stop them on the other side of the ball.

On a separate topic, Cuse is definitely a better squad than last year. That said, they may only end up a 4 win team...5 at most. Very tough conference, and their schedule is just brutal over the 2nd half of the season.

 

[2daBank]

yup, you've got it. i didn't even mention last year's game, as Zona was preparing to hit rock bottom later in the season, but that was an ass kicking. Aztec defense should be just as good, they'll be more balanced on offense too (Burmeister, Haskell, and Crum the QB depth).
De Laura at QB an upgrade for Zona, and they did have success with the portal, but it's not enough. I've got them at 3 wins this season. Baby steps...

Even tho I have some doubts bout burmiester I do think he a upgrade plus he pretty athletic and should help add to what usually a strong rushing attack. I forget who it was I played against tech last year and He scared me to death continually making plays w his legs on key 3rd/4th downs till coming up just short on a goal line stand!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Debating how I want to mess w clemson, kinda like idea of tech team total under assuming 13.5 is right, don’t see them moving the ball on tigers d but kinda want to see DJ look better before laying 3 tds w them, they might not need to throw a pass to cover this tho!

I don't think you can go wrong any way you decide to slice it. Don't see how GT will be able to move the ball against Clemson. And yeah, the Tigers have some things to get on track offensively...but you couldn't ask for a better defense (in conference) to do it against (unless it's Duke).

 

[2daBank]

I think I’m leaning more toward the under 50 than nmst w the points but certainly don’t disagree w fading Nevada.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Old Dom is on my radar as well. I'd love to hear your thoughts on them when you have a moment.

This one is as much of a play against the rebuilding VT offense as anything else. They lost their QB, top RB, two top WRs, and there's not much depth on the o-line. First year coach, doesn't look like he has a good d-line either. Just don't see VT doing much offensively this game.
Old Dom returns a ton, and should have a solid offense. Better than LY on defense too. 3rd year for Rahne, and you gotta be impressed by how they ended their season...1-6, then won their L5 games to get to a bowl. Can't really carry that momentum into a new year, but definitely moving in the right direction. 3-1 ATS as a home dog LY too. We'll see how the portal helped out their defense/secondary though, as they are ok in the front seven.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Updated card as of tonight.


Week 0:
New Mexico St (+10) @ -114 for 1/2
Nebraska/Northwestern 1H under 26 for 1/2

Week 1:
Pittsburgh (-7) @ -105 for 1

Old Dominion (+7.5) for 1/2
Michigan St (-19) for 1

Boise St (+3.5) for 1
Miami Ohio/Kentucky over 51.5 for 1
SDST (-5.5) for 1

Ohio St (-6.5) NCST (-1) Mississippi St (-6.5) for 1 to win .935

Clemson (-21) @ -120 for 1


:tiphat:

 

[2daBank]

This a bummer. I just turned on replay of the cuse spring game but Shrader not playing, obviously don’t make sense to play him if he gonna just run around (since teams don’t tackle the qb in these!) but you would think they want him to go out there and actually throw the ball! Not a good look, lol.

 

[Hulu]

This one is as much of a play against the rebuilding VT offense as anything else. They lost their QB, top RB, two top WRs, and there's not much depth on the o-line. First year coach, doesn't look like he has a good d-line either. Just don't see VT doing much offensively this game.
Old Dom returns a ton, and should have a solid offense. Better than LY on defense too. 3rd year for Rahne, and you gotta be impressed by how they ended their season...1-6, then won their L5 games to get to a bowl. Can't really carry that momentum into a new year, but definitely moving in the right direction. 3-1 ATS as a home dog LY too. We'll see how the portal helped out their defense/secondary though, as they are ok in the front seven.

Pretty much my thinking on VT as well. They are going to be a shell this year. I was considering their RSW under but the number moved too fast for me.

 

[UTSUX]

BOL this Week.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Alright, just a bit over 12 hours until the season begins!!! :bouncing:

Was thinking about some week zero additions, but thankfully had the willpower to lay off. So just the two lil action plays for me.

Never did get to the list of leans for next Saturday, so for shits & giggles here they are...


9/3 week one:
Troy @ Ole Miss = solid line, slightest of leans to Troy, lean under
Utah @ Florida = helluva game, and lean Utah (will probably tease it)
BYU @ USF = more than enough said about this one in posts above, and might play in progress
Louisville @ Cuse = really like Ville, as stated in posts above, and might play in progress
Notre Dame @ Ohio St = teased tOSU, lean under, but might be forced to play ND @ 17 pts or more
Buffalo @ Maryland = lean Terps, or maybe a TT
Colly St @ Michigan = too many points, so the slightest of leans for a back door
UNC @ Appy St = lean under, but missed that boat
Rutgers @ BC = lean BC, but line would need to drop
MTSU @ JMU = still lean James Madison, as stated above (situational, not PR related)
Army @ Coastal = tough game, but lean Army
Miami Oh @ Kentucky = spread is tight, but already played the over
Georgia St @ S Carolina = lean Georgia St at 2 TDs or more
SMU @ N Texas = lean over, maybe SMU, but need to see week zero
FAU @ Ohio = need to see FAU in week zero, but lean Ohio at hm
NCST @ ECU = lean NCST, and already teased them
Tulsa @ Wyoming = need to see week zero, but leaning Tulsa
Rice @ USC = lil lean to Rice (Stanford on deck), but like over/pts or SC TT over
BG @ UCLA = lil lean to BG and moreso the under
Boise @ Oregon St = already played Boise, better team, and should be a pick em at Beavs
Kent St @ Washington = line is tight, but lean UW, and looking at options (TT/tease)
Zona @ SDST = already played SDST and big post above about it
Texas St @ Nevada = lean Texas St, but need to see week zero
Oregon @ Georgia = lean Ducks at 17/18 or more, and might tease
Liberty @ So Miss = lean So Miss a bit
Utah St @ Alabama = no opinion
UTEP @ Oklahoma = same, but watching utep in week zero to confirm
Memphis @ Miss St = lean Messy after LY close call, and already teased them
ULM @ Texas = no interest in SBC bottom feeder, or TX with Bama on deck
Cincy @ Arkansas = lean Cincy (and under) but want 7 or more (Cincy lost a lot of O, but Hogs not solid on D)
Houston @ UTSA = lean UTSA a bit
Mass @ Tulane = too many points, but want no part of UMass
WKU @ Hawaii = need to see Bows this weekend, but lean WKU

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Now a brief look forward to some of week two's big games!!! I'm never going to have this kind of time again during the season, as kid's baseball and other things take me away, but while I do...

- Very interested in Bama @ Texas. Statement game, not a believer in any Texas hype, and will take anything under 14 points immediately...unless something in week one shows me that I'm off in my preseason analysis.
- SJST @ Aubbie. Could be a look ahead to the Penn St rematch. If I see a +24 or better though, I'll take a shot.
- Tenny @ Pitt. Revenge spot, as Vol turnovers cost them LY. Would love to catch 4 or more.
- Tucky @ Florida. Depends on week one, of course. Kentucky has the ATS #s lately, but there's revenge on table. Could the Gators be a slight hm dog? I'll be on them if so, or if basically a pick em.
- Ville @ UCF. Also depends on week one, but leaning towards UCF at home if less than a FG.
- Baylor @ BYU. Looking at the Mormons, and hoping for less than a FG.
- ASU @ Okie Lite. Lean Cowboys at anything below a TD.
- USC @ Stanford. Stanford has the ATS #s lately, but lean USC. Their 1st test, which they must meet. Will take them at anything below a TD.
- Oregon St @ Fresno. lean Fresno St at less than a FG.

Also...
- NIU, if a road dog at Tulsa
- Wisky, if less than two TDs hosting Wazzou

I haven't run the numbers, so not sure where the lines on those games will be yet. Just spitballing with what I'd like to see whenever they're available. And of course, week one action can alter some of the initial thoughts above.

 

[tru]

:cheers6:
Hope all has been well mr wet bandit

:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers6:
Hope all has been well mr wet bandit

:shake:

I'm sure Tru has unc -41 tonight

 

[tru]

I'm sure Tru has unc -41 tonight

:tiphat: Haha

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

:cheers6:
Hope all has been well mr wet bandit

:shake:

hehehe, made me smile. how've you been, man?

good to see you're still around. all is good on my end, except getting older. still feel like i'm in my late 20s/early 30s, but the body feels my age lol.
how about you?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

well the action plays for week zero didn't turn out, for various reasons, but just glad football is back. also glad i'm not a cornhusker fan. ;-) seriously though, great reminder that coaching matters (especially boneheaded decisions). turnovers matter too, lol. (i'm looking at you, nmst aggies.) forgot how much i hate having to pull for teams playing such ugly ass football.

anyhow, will be at Angel Stadium tomorrow night to watch my Yanks play some ugly ass baseball. go figure (rolls eyes in disgust). was looking at all the line movement today, and very disappointed I didn't take Cincy at +7 last week. that one's gotten away from me now. however, i did add a couple more week one plays today as one of my shops finally moved LaTech to +20.


Louisiana Tech (+20) for 1/2
Like I said above, LA Tech has already been mentioned in another thread. As much of a play against Mizzou giving that many points as anything else.

Utah (+3)
BYU (-6)
1 to win 1
I call this my Mormons in suits riding on bicycles in the sweltering heat of Florida on a Saturday teaser. And yes, I will still be looking to find a spot/opportunity in-game to back USF if anything materializes (the situational angle I've mentioned once or twice). Anyhow, both these teams will win their games so I teased them.


Might have to tease Notre Dame and Oregon too if these lines continue to climb, and I'll call that one my Rodney Dangerfield teaser (no respect). :tiphat:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Updated card as of Sunday night.


Week 0:
New Mexico St (+10) @ -114 for 1/2 L
Nebraska/Northwestern 1H under 26 for 1/2 L


Week 1:
Pittsburgh (-7) @ -105 for 1
LA Tech (+20) for 1/2

Old Dominion (+7.5) for 1/2
Michigan St (-19) for 1

Boise St (+3.5) for 1
Miami Ohio/Kentucky over 51.5 for 1
SDST (-5.5) for 1

Ohio St (-6.5) / NCST (-1) / Mississippi St (-6.5) for 1 to win .935
Utah (+3) / BYU (-6) for 1 to win 1

Clemson (-21) @ -120 for 1

 

[Ryno14]

Would love Clemson/GT thoughts (unless you already discussed and I just missed it)

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Would love Clemson/GT thoughts (unless you already discussed and I just missed it)

no worries. this is what i wrote with the play, but there were also posts in another thread i think. just don't remember which one.
"Clemson will just absolutely own the trenches here, and it's just wildly lopsided when comparing these defenses. Not sure how GT can or will move the ball."

Seriously, I don't see how GT moves the ball against this defense. There's a very legitimate chance they get blanked, barring any turnovers, at least until garbage time late in the game. (Maybe it was BAR, but someone posted they were looking at the GT TT under on the forum...and that goes along with my thinking.) GT is just not a good team right now/this year, on either side of the ball. I do have concerns about the Tiger offense, in general, but they're facing the worst defense in the ACC (unless you want to flip a coin and give that title to Duke). Bottom line, if Clemson wanted to simply hand the ball off to any of their backs and run the ball down their throat 98% of the plays, can you see this GT d-line or LBs being able to stop them? Imo, the only thing that keeps Clemson from covering with ease would be themselves...bunch of mistakes on offense. In that unlikely scenario, in that there are play calling mistakes or QB mistakes, I'd go with whoever posted that GT TT under as the play. As long as the line is 27 or less, I think both of the plays (against GT) are equally great fwiw.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Might have to tease Notre Dame and Oregon too if these lines continue to climb, and I'll call that one my Rodney Dangerfield teaser (no respect). :tiphat:

This was kind of a joke, but I'm now taking something like this seriously...especially if I can find a 3rd team to add to the mix, and take both ND and Oregon up to 4 TDs. Worth a better look...

That Kentucky over sure jumped up at some point over the last day or two. Happy to see that. As I patiently wait for the lines to move later this week, hopefully in my favor, here are the main plays that I'm still waiting on making.


- Louisville: will take that at 4, or play it live, but would love this to come down to a FG.
- James Madison: it's dropped to 5.5, so hoping for the drop to continue.
- Cincinnati: it dropped to 6, and is back to 6.5, and hoping to see +7 again.
- Houston/UTSA over 61.5
- USF: will only play this live, if more value presents itself in progress.
- FSU: consistently sitting around a FG, so really no rush while I hope to see 3.5 or 4.

Might be a couple team totals as well (like UW and USC), and possibly even a BG/UCLA under. Just about everything was talked about at some point above in this thread, but fwiw these are the games that are still pending for me.


Lastly, it's gonna be hot as freakin hell here in LA this weekend. Triple digits, and miserable. (It's the one time of year where I just hate SoCal weather.) Rice comes from a hot ass area too, so shouldn't effect them any more than it effects the Trojans. Wonder if the same can be said about Bowling Green. Don't know, but trying to figure out if (or how) this crazy heat will effect the Bruin game.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

luckiest push ever with Pitt on thurs nite, but glad the games turned around on friday. so many of these can go either way. just a matter of a few plays one way or the other. anyhow, the action plays are just that...having fun while accumulating information...but damn, i really overrated/valued Pitt's lines and defense while underrating WVU. like i said though, was very fortunate to push that one. even MSU and Old Dom were fortunate outcomes tonight.

back to tomorrow though, as i jumped back on with some more for the weekend. everything i've added tonight is from the post above.

Both Louisville and USF I'll be playing live. There's no value now with either spread, so I will pick my spots tomorrow...and try my best to post them.


James Madison (-5) @ -105 for 1/2
Houston/UTSA over 61.5 @ -112 for 1/2
Cincinnati (+7) @ -125 for 1
FSU (+3.5) @ -115 for 1


Will still be looking at a couple team totals tomorrow as well. Other than that, just kicking myself tonight for not pulling the trigger on TCU -6.5 for 2H. Moved to that game after the Old Dom upset, felt like they'd get their shit together after the break, but hesitated due to the time of possession discrepancy in the 1st. Anyhow, it was a stupid mistake, which I hopefully won't repeat tomorrow.

Enjoy the games. A handful of really sweet match ups this first real Saturday of the season. :tiphat:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Updated card as of late Friday night.


Week 0:
New Mexico St (+10) @ -114 for 1/2 L
Nebraska/Northwestern 1H under 26 for 1/2 L


Week 1:
Pittsburgh (-7) @ -105 for 1 T
LA Tech (+20) for 1/2 L

Old Dominion (+7.5) for 1/2 W
Michigan St (-19) for 1 W

Boise St (+3.5) for 1
Miami Ohio/Kentucky over 51.5 for 1
SDST (-5.5) for 1
James Madison (-5) @ -105 for 1/2
Houston/UTSA over 61.5 @ -112 for 1/2
Cincinnati (+7) @ -125 for 1

Ohio St (-6.5) / NCST (-1) / Mississippi St (-6.5) for 1 to win .935
Utah (+3) / BYU (-6) for 1 to win 1

FSU (+3.5) @ -115 for 1
Clemson (-21) @ -120 for 1

 

[B.A.R.]

Looks solid Yanks

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

not a good beginning to the day. USC TT a bit too high, so will look for opportunities in progress. adding a tail though...

Ohio St TT over 38 (-120) for 1

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

if only cincy could kick a FG.
ncst was so f'n lucky. horrible play calling at the goal line, not once but twice.
sdst was 100% the wrong side. but even w/ all that was going on, one dumb hold caused a 14 pt swing before the half. shoulda/coulda been 17-17, which would have made it so much easier for me to get TF off that game live.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

a few great, exciting games...but today was tough on me. was way off on a handful of games/teams. portals are one thing, learning about these teams in week one is another...but damn, some of the teams I backed didn't even show up or were just plain gawd awful/dominated/overwhelmed. gotta get back to work, and adjust.

good that i never added Ville or USF live, bad that i decided against adding those UW and USC TTs. so what i left un-played was a wash. the mormon teaser was effectively cancelled, as i only got my wager back. the other teaser was a win, but reduced to only a half unit thanks to ncst pissing themselves. leaves me at 5-7-3 down 3.17 heading into the last two games. shouldn't have added that buckeye TT, but that's the least of my worries. gotta start with getting a better GD handle on the pac-12 at the very least.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

FSU shoulda kicked that damn FG, and taken the gift points. Bad coaching decision, even after they missed the other FG attempt. LSU has to make some adjustments to get their QB some more time, and their WRs involved in the game...and I think they will.

live at the half: LSU (pk) @ +115 for 1/2

not totally a hedge, even though it partially is, but hoping for both. should be an excellent, hard fought 2nd half. think LSU will do much better the 2nd half, but still pulling for FSU to cover my original 3.5 pts.

had FSU kicked that FG to go up a TD, was really hoping to catch LSU at +4.5 or so live. That woulda been a great opportunity.

 

[tru]

hehehe, made me smile. how've you been, man?

good to see you're still around. all is good on my end, except getting older. still feel like i'm in my late 20s/early 30s, but the body feels my age lol.
how about you?

Can’t complain at all, all good my way. It’s a good thing to keep gettin older, haha much better than tha other option GL this season