Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Well, here's hoping I can come up with a better regular season effort than that horrifying display of sub .500 failure from last year. I don't even want to look that up, so I won't. There was a nice bounce-back in the bowl season, and hopefully the somewhat enlightened guy from that stretch will be around this year. I doubt it, but we'll give it a whirl anyway. We'll start with one that you could probably predict if you've read this thread in the past..
1. Navy +21 v Notre Dame: 21 is pretty much available everywhere at -113 or so, but I got it at the usual -110. Pretty much any time I can get a service academy at a price like this, I'm gonna take it. It's pretty much as simple as that, but there's quite a bit more compelling reasons to take this side that I can throw out there as well. One interesting thing about Navy last year was how good their run defense was. It was really astounding. They finished 6th(!!!!) in yards per carry allowed last year, and that was no fluke as the Middies faced Army, Air Force, Notre Dame, Houston, East Carolina and UCF, all of which ranked in the top 25 or so in either total rushing or yards per carry. 5 of their front 7 from last year return, and that crew held ND to 1.9 yards per carry on 34 attempts. Notre Dame comes into this game having made a massive upgrade at QB with Sam Hartman coming in from Wake. Anyone who has watched college football over the past several years knows that Hartman is a top notch QB, but I'm not sure he's walking into a situation that will give him much help in the passing game. They have very little coming back on offense, and the word is that his favorite targets in practice have been incoming freshmen. Michael Mayer, who at TE was a huge portion of their production, is gone. So is OC Tommy Rees who should be commended for getting what he did out of Drew Pyne last year. Promoted to OC is former TE coach Gerard Parker, who Marcus Freeman clearly saw as a way-down-the-line fallback position after striking out on several other targets. As a result, despite having Hartman and facing a Navy defense that is much more susceptible to the pass, ND is likely going to want to run it as much as possible, and that certainly didn't work last year. On the flip side, there is a new sherriff in town in Annapolis, as Brian Newberry(DC) takes over for long time coach Ken Niumatalolo. I was a huge fan of Coach Ken, but the offense had gotten stale over the past few years, so this move might jump start things. Despite the cut block rule changes, Navy is sticking with a triple option based attack, having hired the OC from Kennesaw(where Newberry came from a few years ago). We'll see how they do, but ND's strength on defense is their secondary, which is kind of irrelevant in this case. I've never been a fan of former HC type retreads like Al Golden as a DC, so there's a chance Navy out-schemes the Irish in this one. Also, all Marcus Freeman has been talking about is injury avoidance in camp, and we've seen evidence that teams that run overly timid training camps struggle out of the gate. Overall, I think there's great value with the Middies here, and I think the only chance ND has to cover a number this big (especially on a complicated neutral site travel scenario) is if they go bonkers in the passing game. For that to happen, someone will have to explode at the WR receiver position, and there's been no evidence, even in fall camp, that they have anyone ready to do that.
1. Navy +21 v Notre Dame: 21 is pretty much available everywhere at -113 or so, but I got it at the usual -110. Pretty much any time I can get a service academy at a price like this, I'm gonna take it. It's pretty much as simple as that, but there's quite a bit more compelling reasons to take this side that I can throw out there as well. One interesting thing about Navy last year was how good their run defense was. It was really astounding. They finished 6th(!!!!) in yards per carry allowed last year, and that was no fluke as the Middies faced Army, Air Force, Notre Dame, Houston, East Carolina and UCF, all of which ranked in the top 25 or so in either total rushing or yards per carry. 5 of their front 7 from last year return, and that crew held ND to 1.9 yards per carry on 34 attempts. Notre Dame comes into this game having made a massive upgrade at QB with Sam Hartman coming in from Wake. Anyone who has watched college football over the past several years knows that Hartman is a top notch QB, but I'm not sure he's walking into a situation that will give him much help in the passing game. They have very little coming back on offense, and the word is that his favorite targets in practice have been incoming freshmen. Michael Mayer, who at TE was a huge portion of their production, is gone. So is OC Tommy Rees who should be commended for getting what he did out of Drew Pyne last year. Promoted to OC is former TE coach Gerard Parker, who Marcus Freeman clearly saw as a way-down-the-line fallback position after striking out on several other targets. As a result, despite having Hartman and facing a Navy defense that is much more susceptible to the pass, ND is likely going to want to run it as much as possible, and that certainly didn't work last year. On the flip side, there is a new sherriff in town in Annapolis, as Brian Newberry(DC) takes over for long time coach Ken Niumatalolo. I was a huge fan of Coach Ken, but the offense had gotten stale over the past few years, so this move might jump start things. Despite the cut block rule changes, Navy is sticking with a triple option based attack, having hired the OC from Kennesaw(where Newberry came from a few years ago). We'll see how they do, but ND's strength on defense is their secondary, which is kind of irrelevant in this case. I've never been a fan of former HC type retreads like Al Golden as a DC, so there's a chance Navy out-schemes the Irish in this one. Also, all Marcus Freeman has been talking about is injury avoidance in camp, and we've seen evidence that teams that run overly timid training camps struggle out of the gate. Overall, I think there's great value with the Middies here, and I think the only chance ND has to cover a number this big (especially on a complicated neutral site travel scenario) is if they go bonkers in the passing game. For that to happen, someone will have to explode at the WR receiver position, and there's been no evidence, even in fall camp, that they have anyone ready to do that.
