Week of August 28th thru September 1st Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Football is back boys. You can fel the excitement and energy throughout the college football forum. You guys have been doing a wonderful job so far. It't been great reading and I know everyone really has enjoyed it. Hopefully we can all get off to great starts and have a enjoyful season. If its anything like last years regular season excitement wise its going to be a great fall.

Recapping last year. It was odd one to say he least. Had some weird swings and some bitter losses. At the same point though it ended up being a decent year after a great bowl run. As always, the thing to do this season is to try and improve. I have a gameplan and I hope it works to increase profibility over the course of the season.

Basically how I work. I don't have a set system or anything. I'll play 1-5 units on a game. Have always been more successful in NBA and CFB by varying my units. Just a few thing. It's hard for many people to do. It's just whatever works for you in the long run. Two years ago, couldn't lose on big plays. Last year, it was a little harder. Thats where selectivity comes into play and getting the number you want. I won't play for action either. If I only have only three plays and they all fire at noon on a Saturday, so be it. Yeah, it's nice to have money on the late slate but in the long run it's costing you money.

One thing I really believe in is preparing for the next slate. As each week winds down I am already looking at the next week. This helps in a few ways; first, your ready to hit those opening lines Sunday night. Second, you may notice something about the following week that helps you for the current week. You'll see us start a thread for the next week during the current week. Very important imo.

Heres what I locked in just a bit ago. I wanted to post them now for accuracy purposes. I will give a few quick comments and even more as the next few weeks progress.

Stanford +4 -110 3 units
Wyoming -10 -110 2 units
Texas -23.5 -110 2 units
Wake Forest -13 -110
Missouri -8 -110 2 units
Ole Miss -9 -110


I am looking at three other plays as well. I will behitting the gators team total hova when it gets released. I still really like the Michigan-Utah under. I also have a lean on Western Michigan still. I def. want above 14 though and will wait it out as I continue to research that game.

Stanford ML is a possibility down the line as well. I was suprised that the line hadn't moved much since the LVSC openers were released. I am sorry, home dog on a Thursday night against a team that lost to much. Jeebus, an entire front seven and your back. More on this later. Not going to bore you about Wyoming. We all know the story here. I'll get into the Missouri game in more detail tonight as well as the others...

Lets start the season strong. Four weeks fellas:cheers:
 
looks solid so far still capping games, haevn't been around much i have ben training for my first bodybuilding show and I'm 6 weeks out from it so it will take a little longer for me to get my plays out for week 1 BOL this season BAR I like a few of those myself
 
Whoa, our cards are very similar. I am already on Texas and Wyoming. I love Stanford as well. I lean Wake and Ole Miss but just haven't decided yet. The only one I'm scared of is Mizzou. I just can't get a good read on Illinois this year
 
It's official now .... CFB is here.

like the looks of your card. I also sort of like Wake forest at baylor. From a matchup perspective and from a power rating perspective it fits the bill. Should i be scared of Wake as a big favorite though ?
 
I'll be around later to discuss more, gotta shower and roll...but...

I honestly don't get too worried about chalk in September, or more specifically in non-conference. Come October, chalk scuuurs me..lol. I'll validate some points later but this Baylor team should get efficiently picked apart by Wake. I know some worry about "playing to cpmpetition" but I think a porous defense combined with a very solid QB on the other side should lead to ball control and a mismatch. Baylor will improve as the year goes so know is the time to go against them.
 
B.A.R. said:
Stanford +4 -110 3 units
Wyoming -10 -110 2 units
Texas -23.5 -110 2 units
Wake Forest -13 -110
Missouri -8 -110 2 units
Ole Miss -9 -110
Click to expand...

Stanford ML does look tempting, but Wyoming is on my trap radar.

Fundamentally, it seems as though Mizzou should cover this spread. Vegas has made this game two points higher than last yr to compensate for the loss of Mendenhall, retention of Chase Daniel, and other factors.

I think that Memphis/Ole Miss line might drop more. You have a rivalry game with people undervaluing Ole Miss this season. I might have to bite on Ole Miss as a TD fave, if it gets there.

Glad pigskin is around the corner. GL to buddy.
 
Stanford +4 -110 3 units
Wyoming -10 -110 2 units
Texas -23.5 -110 2 units
Wake Forest -13 -110
Missouri -8 -110 2 units
Ole Miss -9 -110


(Originally Posted by B.A.R: (*)I am looking at three other plays as well. *Ohio State Over USC. *Ohio State over Ytown and *Ohio State BIG over Michigan. I just love* OSU baby!!! :23_11_59: I will be hitting the gators team total hova when it gets released. I still really like the Michigan-Utah under. I also have a lean on Western Michigan still. I def. want above 14 though and will wait it out as I continue to research that game.

Stanford ML is a possibility down the line as well. I was suprised that the line hadn't moved much since the LVSC openers were released. I am sorry, home dog on a Thursday night against a team that lost to much. Jeebus, an entire front seven and your back. More on this later. Not going to bore you about Wyoming. We all know the story here. I'll get into the Missouri game in more detail tonight as well as the others...

Lets start the season strong. Four weeks fellas:cheers:[/QUOTE]

GL BAR on the Buckeyes...Nice to see you come out of the closet...:36_11_6: ( Just a little humor BAR) :shake::smiley_acbe:

(*) = I Lied.
 
I think UF team total is going to be my biggest play of the week, I've felt that way for quite some time and with it being a 6:30am game for Hawaii, its going to be ugly. I hope it is under 50, but I doubt it will end up being there. You got some solid sides. I'm on Wyoming and do not like the opposite sides of any of your games. GL and get your ass around for some discussions
 
G-Man said:
Buy the point or point and a half now and have it your way. Nothing wrong with laying a little extra juice guys..:shake:
Click to expand...


Yeah that is why i am wondering about the 7.5. hardly even worth buying it there but it makes it interesting. would never buy a full point.
 
Honestly guys, I don't think so. We'll see though. You never know, Bob could move that thing a fw points or someone else as well. Time will tell.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Stanford ML does look tempting, but Wyoming is on my trap radar.
Click to expand...


I can certainly see how one would think that with Wyoming showing up on everybody's radar in the preseason, but I really don't see how the Cowboys shouldn't be favored by 13 in this one. Simply based on personnel in/out compared to last years line this one is off. Nevermind what happened last year or the fact the game is in Laramie, but I certainly understand where the WYO love at this point could bother someone.
 
BAR my man... nice to see you have your plays up. Similar to what I am looking at...which I'll post here in the next couple of days.Stanford play being the largest of the week? Interesting for sure... I like them ML small for a bit but just worry about taking a pretty bad team in an opener. I know O ST lost a boatload but Stanford had one of the worst running attacks last year if I remember correctly. O ST would never be a play for me though.Wyoming looks solid and should hit. Line holding firm around 10 is a bit weird in my opinion. Hopefully I get my plays in by that time.Texas is a season opening beast and with a 40+ point win they should catch the eyes of the pollsters. FAU has never faired well against superior competition and I have faded them accordingly for years. Texas sleepwalked in LY's opener and that's why the number IMO is under 28.
 
JPicks said:
I can certainly see how one would think that with Wyoming showing up on everybody's radar in the preseason, but I really don't see how the Cowboys shouldn't be favored by 13 in this one. Simply based on personnel in/out compared to last years line this one is off. Nevermind what happened last year or the fact the game is in Laramie, but I certainly understand where the WYO love at this point could bother someone.
Click to expand...

Even the heavily bet on teams win now and then, JPicks. Thanks for the response. I can see why everyone loves WYO, I guess I am just looking for a reason why Vegas didn't know to make it higher than -9 for equal action. I might back the Cowboys before kickoff, but I want to see where this line goes even if it means me missing out on an acceptable spread to bet.
 
Stanford game is very solid and should win and cover if they dont lose the turnover outcome in the game.

:shake:
 
Copying this from another thread. My early UM/Utah thoughts and UM news

Alright, sorry for that delay. Wanted to do some reading and get caught up on the last few days of practice.

I think this is going to be a very interesting game in all honesty. I won't have a play on the side as it is not worth playing the sides in a Michigan game just yet. There are too many unknown variables. I will most likely be making a play on the under in this game provided the number is where I hope it is.

So far, this has been a drastically different camp for this school. Lloyd had the same "set schedule" so to speak for fall camp each year. He rarely talked to media during that and the players also spoke little. Rich Rod has been very open so far after each practice and its great for us cappers because we get a better take on what is going on so far. Practice is sooo much more uptempo. Everything is fast paced. As some defensive guys have said, the amount of sets implememted are amazing. Mind you, this is with only about half the playbook implemeted.

Lets talk quarterbacks. Now, bjorks said there is no oone that fits the system. Thats true and not true. Threet and Sheridan both have some qualities that fit it. True freshman Feagin has many more but he won't be ready to be a FT starter this year. I know many Blue fans would love to see him pull a Henne and start right away but I that is just dreaming in my estimation. I can see him though in a few packages to set a change of pace. Lets also remember, people get to fixated on what sort of QB Rich Rod has to have. Shaun King, Woody Dantzler and Rasheed Marshall all come to mind that have played in his systems as a HC and coordinator. So, I expect some growing pains early with whoever starts. Both have progressed though quickly in camp and look more comfortable in the offense than they did in the spring game.

The big question mark is the offensive line. Long a staple of Big Blue, this could be the weakest one we have had in some time. Rich Rod's offense excels with a great offensive line. Look at the one WVU had last year. Look how they blew OU off the ball. That's what worries me more than a QB or anything else. RR has admitted as much. Basially they have been quite sporadic so far in camp.

The defense is what is going to keep this team in just about any game until 11/22. After he 0-2 start last year this defense quickly emerged to very solid. I think it will be the 2nd best UM defense this decade(other being 2006). I like the make-up of them. They are much faster and I think they will be more agressive.

Now, lets relate this to the game on August 30th:

You have two pretty good offenses. Utah has an excellent QB obviously if he is right. I expect Michigan to come out with a few trick plays and whatnot to open things up. I wouldn't expect any less from RR. Blue will have growing pains but I think have a real shot to win this game. Like I said, no bet for me. If you like Michigan, it could drop more. The LVSC opener was 7 and I think it was like 4.5 offshores last week and is at 3 last time I looked. As I said, I like the under and hopefully can get a sexy number.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Shaw's hit, Threet's pass mark latest Michigan practice

Posted by [URL="http://blog.mlive.com/jim_carty/about.html"]Jim Carty | The Ann Arbor News[/URL] August 12, 2008 17:18PM

Categories: Columns, Wolverines Football
Two moments marked the beginning of Tuesday's University of Michigan football practice, one good, one not so good, both tying in nicely with coach Rich Rodriguez's comments earlier in the day.
The good came during what Rodriguez and his staff call the M-drill.
Three pairs of players, one offensive and one defensive in each pair, are placed inside a gradually narrowing cone. While the rest of the team surrounds the drill and shouts for one side or the other, a running back starts in the narrow end of the cone and tries to make his way around the battling pairs to the open end of the cone.
The close quarters mean few backs get through.
Michael Shaw's turn came a few minutes into the drill.
The freshman from Ohio sprinted past the first defensive player, then cut back around the second. If that had been all he did, it would have still been an impressive display of speed and shiftiness, but highly touted freshman corner Boubacar Cissoko was still between Shaw and the end of the cone.
Shaw hinted at a move and then simply squared up and pancaked Cissoko. Rolled right over him. With authority.
"Ohhhhhhh!" went the team.
"Wow," whispered a reporter.
Earlier in the day Rodriguez had admitted a handful of freshman had already caught his eye, including Shaw and fellow tailback Sam McGuffie.
"McGuffie and Shaw are two guys that will not be redshirted - they'll play," the coach said. "They've done enough to convince us that they can contribute as freshmen, and I think as much mentally as physically. The biggest drawback for a freshman coming in is, can they mentally handle the schemes and the pace, all the things that go on with it? Those two have shown that they can.
"They're both fast, explosive players, who I think are good with the spread system. We're excited about it. As much as anything, I like the way they practice. Freshmen come in and sometimes you have to teach them the intensity of practice. These guys were obviously well coached in high school. They were prepared well when they got here."
McGuffie's YouTube highlights have made the Texan the most anticipated Michigan running back since Mike Hart - and watching practice, it's easy to imagine McGuffie living up to the hype. All the speed and elusiveness seems to have translated to the college level.
But Shaw has a lot of the qualities and more smack when he hits you.
If the two continue to produce, Michigan could be stacked with talent at running back now and in the future.
Quarterback is another matter, a point underscored by both the coach and the practice.
Tuesday morning, Rodriguez seemed to rule freshman Justin Feagin out of the competition. "He's got a long way to go mentally," the coach said, "because he's got so much to learn."
Former walk-on Nick Sheridan and Georgia Tech transfer Steven Threet remained very close, he said, adding that both would play if the season started today (then semi-grumbling that he didn't really like the hypothetical).
Come practice time, though, it didn't look all that close.
Sheridan played with efficiency and a swagger, smoothly running through his drills, delivering almost all his short- and medium-range passes with accuracy and zip.
Threet wasn't bad, he just wasn't good, and certainly didn't seem as steady as Sheridan. In one red zone passing drill, his pass drilled into the ground just in front of a receiver cutting back to the middle of the field.
"I pray to God you never throw the ball like that in a game," offensive line coach Greg Frey snapped.
"If you're in the game," offensive coordinator Calvin McGee added.
If indeed.
Can Sheridan, the undersized local kid from Saline, the former Michigan assistant's son, really win this quarterback job?
Can Shaw and McGuffie keep it up?
These and plenty of other questions continue to make this the most intriguing August in years around here.
And as Rodriguez stressed a few hours earlier, there are 18 more days of practice before Michigan opens its season against the University of Utah, and a lot of things can happen in 18 days, for better or for worse.
 
So who is it going to be , BAR ? ...sheridan or threet and what advantages does one hold over the other ?
 
vegaskyle said:
So who is it going to be , BAR ? ...sheridan or threet and what advantages does one hold over the other ?
Click to expand...

My gut insticnt at this point is Sheridan. Plenty of time though. RR has said he wants to go into the season with two QB's who can be ready as starters. In all honesty I expect that we'll see both plenty in early September. Back to the question though. I would say Sheridan gets the nod. He is more athletic in the system. His intermediate throws have been very nice. He just won't be stretching the field much. Threet has a tendancy in spring and fall camp to throw too many picks and so far has been erratic. He has the better arm but hasn't been as consistent.
 
Good luck this year B.A.R.

No opinions on many of these, but against you on Mizzou and Ole Miss....good health on those.
 
Now we're fucked.

Yeah, what a shock you two would post the same play only a couple hours apart.
 
I like 6 out of 7 BAR. And the one i dont like is my favorite team so i hope the horns cover too. I amprobably going to go the teaser route on the memphis and ole miss games though.

If you get the time and have the inclination , do you think you could give teh fresno/rutgers game a once over ?
 
When will the totals come out? I am in Vegas starting tomorrow. Will they be up before I leave at the butt crack of dawn on Sunday? Any sportsbooks better than others? I won't have time to watch anything, just placing bets more than likely.

To the thread - nice picks BAR. After hearing the local Longhorn honk from Orangebloods on the radio today, I am even more convinced Texas will lay the wood to FAU and more than make up for last year's Arkie State game.

The simple fact that Briles is in his first year at BU makes the WF pick a good one without even looking at the two teams.

I might actually stay awake on the plane ride and read my Steele.
 
LMAO

Kyle, just finally saw your PM from other day...

this week has gotten busier and busier...from having tov help out fondy look alike and other stuff...

I will be home about 9 your time morrow and catch up on that queastion and this thread...

pretty frustarted...so geeked about aseason and so busy...argh...

waiting for UM-Utah total should be released morrow.
 
Turner is money as a DD dog. Too bad its just 8.5/9.

Who the hell is turner?<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
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