Week 9 Write ups, hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

I found this week to be extremely difficult. Lots of significant dogs, but I could find compelling cases to make on both sides of almost all of these games, so I'm playing fewer games than usual. I'm typically around 15-17 sides. Much fewer this week, though I was close on a few more.

MINNESOTA -6.5
Memphis -23
Maryland +11
UMass +17
Oregon State +13
Utah State -16.5
Ole Miss -3
Tennessee +17.5
Ohio St -13.5 (snuck it in last night)

Write ups to follow...

 

[Br@ssknux]

1. Minnesota -6.5 @ Illinois: I've talked at length before about how in order to stop the run, a team needs D linemen who require two people to block them, or at least some who can win their battles if only assigned 1. As I've mentioned, Illinois doesn't currently have any defensive linemen on their roster who can even win a battle, let alone require a double team. This is especially true with a good running team like Minnesota. David Cobb also runs very hard, so he'll break about 5 tackles per run until somebody escorts him out of bounds or he just gets tired from disposing of unathletic goobers who halfheartedly run into him. Minnesota ranks low in passing numbers, but Mitch Leidner has shown that he can make a nice throw if the situation requires it. Offensively, Illinois under Riley O'Toole is good for about 14 points. If they play Aaron Bailey at QB things could get interesting, but Jerry Kill is unlikely to be too fazed by any strategic stylings of Village Idiot Tim Beckman. Minnesota should win this comfortably if these teams play anything close to their normal performances.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Memphis -23 @ SMU: In 3 home games this year, SMU has lost by 38, 56 and 52 points. In the only game they showed a pulse(at ECU) I was laying 41 against them so take this with a grain of salt, as they seem to wake up only when I'm counting on a lay down from them. having said that, Memphis is a good squad, solid defensively and surprisingly good offensively (except when they run into Ole Miss). They've been knocked around by SMU quite a bit the past couple of years, so revenge will be on their minds. If SMU can only muster 3 points and lose by 38 against Cincinnati's defense, they'll never pass their own 30 against Memphis, a team that beat Cincy 41-14 at paul brown Stadium. The transitive property obviously isn't a sound handicapping tool, but SMU can't stop a soul and can't bust a grape on offense. A good team like Memphis, who should also be properly motivated, shouldn't have any problem covering 23.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Maryland +11 @Wisconsin: I don't think there's any doubt that Wiscsonsin will run all over Maryland, as they seemingly do with everyone, but that doesn't mean that they will cover 11 points here. They are leading the country in yards per rush by a mile but have still managed to cover only 1 of their last 9 games. They ran for 8.5 yards per carry 2 weeks ago and beat Illinois by 10 as a 27 point favorite. They ran for 7.7 ypc the week before that and lost 20-14 as a 7 point favorite against Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the first team I can ever remember who ranks #1 in the country in rushing but dead last in passing. McEvoy and Stave have been equally dreadful throwing the ball. Gary Andersen would be doing his team a favor by running the ball in 100% of their snaps, but that's not going to happen. Maryland has some ballhawks on defense, so there will be danger every time one of those two drops back. Offensively, Maryland has been pretty good, and they've been very resourceful on the road with a 3-0 record. They also employ a running QB in CJ Brown, and the badgers had all kinds of trouble figuring out what to do with Illinois backup Aaron Bailey when he came into the game 2 weeks ago, running for 2 TDs is about 40 seconds to make that one a game at the end. There's also a major special teams advantage for Maryland in this one, as Wisconsin's cover squads have been suspect and Maryland has 4 return scores this year. It actually might behoove us to wait on this one, as I think the line is more likely to climb than fall, but I'm comfortable with 11.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. UMass +17 @Toledo: As I've said many times in the past, in order to cover a big number, you need to be able to stop the other team. Toledo has not been able to do that this year, ranking 100th in yards per play against and 125th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. They're also dead last in passer rating against (128th). UMass has been able to pile up the yardage this year, especially in the passing game, and their defense, though no world beater, has been able to get some stops lately. They'll have their work cut out for them against a solid Toledo offense, but they should be able to put up enough points to stay within the big number.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Oregon State +13 @Stanford: Stanford has never been an offensive juggernaut, even in the days of Andrew Luck, but this year, they are really struggling to score. Their high water mark was 34 points against an atrocious Washington state defense, and they've hovered around 10-20 points against everyone else, including scoring only 10 against an Arizona State defense that previously couldn't get out of it's own way. This week, they face an Oregon State defense that is very solid and on par with other defenses that have shut them down. Defensively, Stanford is as good as they've been in the past, but to cover this number, they'll need to just about pitch a shutout. Sean Mannion doesn't have the receivers he had last year, but he's still a competent QB. I like the Beavers to keep it close.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Utah State -16.5 v UNLV: Back to a fun pastime: Fading the UNLV Runnin Rejects on the road! Utah state is on to their 3rd QB, but he looked good enough last week against Colorado State to be able to be effective against this terrible defense. UNLV is ranked in the 120 range in just about every conceivable category on defense, and Utah State's defense is unlikely to allow anything of consequence to UNLV, as they're ranked 4th(!!) in the country against the run and 24th against the pass. Shouldn't be too much of a sweat for them to handle UNLV's weak suck attack.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Ole Miss -3 (buy) at LSU: Even when LSU was dominant and Ole Miss was Ole Miss, the Rebels have had a good run against the Tigers, knocking them off 3 times in the last 6 years, including an outright upset last year as a 9 point dog. Now they have their best team of a generation while LSU has one of their weakest. The matchup for LSU against this Ole Miss defense is especially bad, as they can't throw the ball, and Ole Miss has picked off 15 passes already this year. In addition to that, LSU's MO is running the ball and Ole Miss will not allow anything in that regard either. Offensively, Ole Miss hasn't run the ball all that well this year, but they probably will this week as LSU is ranked 101st against the run, and has an especially tough time against spread attacks. In the game last year Ole Miss ran for 175 yards between their two running backs, so don't be surprised if they go that route this year. Given the venue, I think LSU will get Ole Miss's best shot, and if that happens, they'll cover 3.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Tennessee +17.5 v Alabama: This spread blew up because of what Alabama did to Texas A&M last week, but I'm tempted to throw that game out, because something strange is going on with Texas A&M. That beating was so severe, and so complete that you almost have to wonder if A&M was on the take, or infected with some sort of virus or something. If we look at the whole body of work, we'll notice that Alabama has scored 14 and 17 points in their SEC road games this year. The 17 against Ole Miss is understandable, given their defensive ability, but Arkansas is nothing close to the level of defense they will face this weekend, and they only managed 14 against them. Tennessee is ranked 16th in total defense, 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficency and 12 in passer rating against, so they have definitely earned their stripes on the defensive side of the ball. In order to cover a big number like this, I'm thinking Bama will either have to pitch a shutout or get multiple non-offensive TDs. That might happen, but I think Tennessee will give them their best effort of the year. The Ole Miss game from last week was much closer than the final score indicated. I think the Vols will give Bama a run for their money this week.


EDIT*********. If Nathan Peterman starts or is scheduled to make any kind of appearance in this game due to Worley's injury, I am officially off this game. If they burn Dobbs redshirt and start him I'd be ok with it. I'm going to try to back out now, but might play it if the line moves up significantly.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Ohio State -13.5 @Penn State: I hemmed and hawed on this one because Penn State is almost never this big of a dog at home, but they have looked so bad on offense the past few weeks that I just couldn't pass this up. Christian Hackenberg has a rep as a future pro, but to me, the only pros he resembles are the likes of Blaine Gabbert and post Chicago Josh McCown. They've averaged 3.9 yards per play in Big Ten play, and other than Michigan, the defenses they've played are not the kind that shuts down a future pro QB. Defensively, their numbers are good, but they gave up long drives all day to Northwestern and even Michigan's weak offense scored on them when they needed to. This Ohio State offense has looked like a bunch of killers the last couple of weeks and dropped 52 points on a pretty competent defense in College Park earlier this year. Anything close to that kind of effort Saturday night will make this an easy cover. I see about a 38-13 type game here, unless Hackenberg and company find some semblance of an offense out of nowhere.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Others considered: I was close to laying 7 with Virginia at home against North Carolina but i just don't trust UVa to cover more than a score. I like the way their passing game looked last week though, and UNC can't stop a soul while UVa has a stout defense....

I would typically like Texas catching 10, but that would involve a wager against Bill Snyder in a conference game, so I'm not willing to do that. Texas has the value from a purely systemic approach though....

I was very close to laying the 13.5 with UCLA at Colorado since I think they will score at will against the Buffs, and they if they didn't turn the ball over they would have covered last week, but I don't trust their defense in a back to back road situation...

Oklahoma State(-1) has the advantage of having he mother of all good situations with West Virginia coming in to Stillwater off a monumental win while they couldn't have played worse at TCU, but the numbers say the 'Eers are significantly better and I need more than a good situation to make a play. I couldn't find any other edges for OK St to hang my hat on, so I couldn't pull the trigger. Don't be surprised if WV turns in their worst performance of the year though....

I thought about Taking 17 with Michigan because their defense has been consistently stout this year, but who would be surprised to see a 34-0 win for Michigan State in this game? Certainly not me.....I can't find a line for BC at Wake Forest. Had I found one, I probably would have been on BC....

The rest of the games seem to be lined pretty adequately to me.....Have a great week.

 

[gps_3]

8. @Tennessee +17.5 v Alabama: This spread blew up because of what Alabama did to Texas A&M last week, but I'm tempted to throw that game out, because something strange is going on with Texas A&M. That beating was so severe, and so complete that you almost have to wonder if A&M was on the take, or infected with some sort of virus or something. If we look at the whole body of work, we'll notice that Alabama has scored 14 and 17 points in their SEC road games this year. The 17 against Ole Miss is understandable, given their defensive ability, but Arkansas is nothing close to the level of defense they will face this weekend, and they only managed 14 against them. Tennessee is ranked 16th in total defense, 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficency and 12 in passer rating against, so they have definitely earned their stripes on the defensive side of the ball. In order to cover a big number like this, I'm thinking Bama will either have to pitch a shutout or get multiple non-offensive TDs. That might happen, but I think Tennessee will give them their best effort of the year. The Ole Miss game from last week was much closer than the final score indicated. I think the Vols will give Bama a run for their money this week.

Good analysis, and I agree with most of it. As a fan, I think/hope that the team turned a corner after the Arkansas game and that last Saturday's game was the product of it, but Alabama's road woes can't be ignored. I do think there's a good chance that UT scores under 10 points, so if Alabama gets to 24, the Vol cover is in jeopardy. And Sims is going to have one of those passes into a defender's chest intercepted at some point this season, I think.

 

[twinkie13]

7. Ole Miss -3 (buy) at LSU: Even when LSU was dominant and Ole Miss was Ole Miss, the Rebels have had a good run against the Tigers, knocking them off 3 times in the last 6 years, including an outright upset last year as a 9 point dog. Now they have their best team of a generation while LSU has one of their weakest. The matchup for LSU against this Ole Miss defense is especially bad, as they can't throw the ball, and Ole Miss has picked off 15 passes already this year. In addition to that, LSU's MO is running the ball and Ole Miss will not allow anything in that regard either. Offensively, Ole Miss hasn't run the ball all that well this year, but they probably will this week as LSU is ranked 101st against the run, and has an especially tough time against spread attacks. In the game last year Ole Miss ran for 175 yards between their two running backs, so don't be surprised if they go that route this year. Given the venue, I think LSU will get Ole Miss's best shot, and if that happens, they'll cover 3.

Great stuff as usual my brother!!

Fandom aside I would agree....the problem I have is the line just screams something to me. Just fishy, which would make me have LSU or nada.

GL this week :cheers3:br@ss!!

 

[gps_3]

I also think Ole Miss will get LSU's best shot this weekend. If that's enough to win or cover, I'm not sure. But moreso than any of the years that were mentioned in the writeup, Ole Miss has LSU's full attention. It's always been a forced rivalry that only the Rebs embraced, but I think this year the students and players know they aren't good enough to look past OM, ranking notwithstanding. Luckily for me, I have to go to a wedding at 6, so I'll miss all 3 primetime SEC games

 

[B.A.R.]

Very enjoyable read...

 

[Dollaz]

I enjoyed it. Wish I could add more but I seem to focus on different games than you every week. I ran across Illini run defense in capping another game this morning and think you talked me into Minny. Minnys pass defense seems fairly solid as well.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Great stuff as usual my brother!!

Fandom aside I would agree....the problem I have is the line just screams something to me. Just fishy, which would make me have LSU or nada.

GL this week :cheers3:br@ss!!

Twink....JMO but books HAVE to give LSU the required respect when lining a home night game. There's always a bit of history and reputation in the lines. Sometimes there's value as a result, sometimes not.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I also think Ole Miss will get LSU's best shot this weekend. If that's enough to win or cover, I'm not sure. But moreso than any of the years that were mentioned in the writeup, Ole Miss has LSU's full attention. It's always been a forced rivalry that only the Rebs embraced, but I think this year the students and players know they aren't good enough to look past OM, ranking notwithstanding. Luckily for me, I have to go to a wedding at 6, so I'll miss all 3 primetime SEC games

I think you're right about that.

By the way...tough break on the wedding. Fall weddings stink for college football fans.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I enjoyed it. Wish I could add more but I seem to focus on different games than you every week. I ran across Illini run defense in capping another game this morning and think you talked me into Minny. Minnys pass defense seems fairly solid as well.

Thanks BAR....


Dollaz, I was really close on taking the 10.5 with ODU. Just a little scared off by that mediocre performance offensively against UTEP last week. If they are going to cover this, and maybe win outright, they are going to have to put the scoreboard on tilt.

As for the Illini, I am dead serious when I say that I think ODU's run defense is probably as good or better than Illinois. I obviously like Minny a lot this week.

 

[gps_3]

I think you're right about that.

By the way...tough break on the wedding. Fall weddings stink for college football fans.

yep. groom is a huge Alabama fan too. Amazing what those women do to us. Luckily my bride refused to have a fall wedding. Not because of football, but the possibility that it could be cold. I'll take it

 

[Dollaz]

Thanks BAR....


Dollaz, I was really close on taking the 10.5 with ODU. Just a little scared off by that mediocre performance offensively against UTEP last week. If they are going to cover this, and maybe win outright, they are going to have to put the scoreboard on tilt.

As for the Illini, I am dead serious when I say that I think ODU's run defense is probably as good or better than Illinois. I obviously like Minny a lot this week.

I wouldn't be too scared off about the offensive performance bc UTEP was able to go on 10+ play drives, ODU was only able to manage 53 plays (for 357 yards). 6.75 yards per play is well above there season total and better than they did vs. NC State, EMU, MT, and Marshall. It started slow with 2 three-and-outs bc UTEP was able to get pressure on the right side. (3 sacks first 6 plays)

Then they kicked the offense in gear running the ball a bit more to mix it up. TD, turnover on downs after 50 yard drive, punt, TD, TD, TD, Punt, Downs, TD

Changes this week offensively is one of the OL will def. be back (can play RG or RT so not sure where he lines up) and the other projected starter on the right side is practicing and could be back. Heinicke said the week off helped him heal a shoulder injury and allowed him to lift weights for the first time this season. Plus, Ray Lawry is the starter now, a much more effective running back

I think they will get their points as long as they don't show rust early with the week off and get behind a team that typically starts fast. I think Western Kentucky may have a worse defense than ODU and is certainly worse than UTEPs defense. Sack numbers look ok, but speaking to some of their fans, they really don't get pressure on the QB (my number 1 concern) and they allow QBs to scramble for a lot of yards.

The week off could be good or bad, but I think in this instance it's good. There are 6-7 guys coming back that have missed at least the last game and some the last few. I've gotten some glowing reviews from practice from writers that are typically pretty honest with their assessments. With the youth at the skill positions, I expect them to have better chemistry as the year moves along.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I wouldn't be too scared off about the offensive performance bc UTEP was able to go on 10+ play drives, ODU was only able to manage 53 plays (for 357 yards). 6.75 yards per play is well above there season total and better than they did vs. NC State, EMU, MT, and Marshall. It started slow with 2 three-and-outs bc UTEP was able to get pressure on the right side. (3 sacks first 6 plays)

Then they kicked the offense in gear running the ball a bit more to mix it up. TD, turnover on downs after 50 yard drive, punt, TD, TD, TD, Punt, Downs, TD

Changes this week offensively is one of the OL will def. be back (can play RG or RT so not sure where he lines up) and the other projected starter on the right side is practicing and could be back. Heinicke said the week off helped him heal a shoulder injury and allowed him to lift weights for the first time this season. Plus, Ray Lawry is the starter now, a much more effective running back

I think they will get their points as long as they don't show rust early with the week off and get behind a team that typically starts fast. I think Western Kentucky may have a worse defense than ODU and is certainly worse than UTEPs defense. Sack numbers look ok, but speaking to some of their fans, they really don't get pressure on the QB (my number 1 concern) and they allow QBs to scramble for a lot of yards.

The week off could be good or bad, but I think in this instance it's good. There are 6-7 guys coming back that have missed at least the last game and some the last few. I've gotten some glowing reviews from practice from writers that are typically pretty honest with their assessments. With the youth at the skill positions, I expect them to have better chemistry as the year moves along.

Well...6.75 ypp is pretty mediocre against UTEP. Even after that game they are still last in the country (128th) in defensive ypp at 7.57, so 4 punts against them and a couple stops on downs is pretty mediocre. WKu might be a better matchup for them defensively because they struggle at getting pressure, but if they punt 4 times and get stopped on downs twice they probably aren't going to cover the 10.5. That was my point for the most part in deciding not to back em. WKU is explosive, especially at home.

I like what you're saying though, especially if the matchup is comfortable because I'm sure their offense will move the ball. Best of luck to the Monarchs.

 

[YoungGun11]

Minnys pass defense seems fairly solid as well.

Did you see last weeks game? I am a Minny guy, just giving you shit. Outside of last week most certainly formiddable, last week was hopefully a rare occurrence.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Did you see last weeks game? I am a Minny guy, just giving you shit. Outside of last week most certainly formiddable, last week was hopefully a rare occurrence.

I think they just got bum rushed in that instance. They probably dared Purdue to best them through the air(and who would blame them, given the body of work Purdue had out there) and Purdue to their credit made them pay for it. That happens sometimes. I think you're correct about it being a rare occurrence.

 

[Dollaz]

Well...6.75 ypp is pretty mediocre against UTEP. Even after that game they are still last in the country (128th) in defensive ypp at 7.57, so 4 punts against them and a couple stops on downs is pretty mediocre. WKu might be a better matchup for them defensively because they struggle at getting pressure, but if they punt 4 times and get stopped on downs twice they probably aren't going to cover the 10.5. That was my point for the most part in deciding not to back em. WKU is explosive, especially at home.

I like what you're saying though, especially if the matchup is comfortable because I'm sure their offense will move the ball. Best of luck to the Monarchs.

No, you are right for the most part. UTEP has played some pretty tough offenses though and that's what I was accounting for.

Agreed, if they get 4-5 stops, it's going to be tough to cover. Thought, in this game, there could be 85 plays each and 14-15 drives.

 

[Dollaz]

Did you see last weeks game? I am a Minny guy, just giving you shit. Outside of last week most certainly formiddable, last week was hopefully a rare occurrence.

What am I missing? 16-26 for 153 yards

 

[RetroVK]

Great stuff as usual. gl ...

btw 2012 and 2011 Army ended the year first in rush offense and last in pass offense.

 

[Element1]

8. @Tennessee +17.5 v Alabama: This spread blew up because of what Alabama did to Texas A&M last week, but I'm tempted to throw that game out, because something strange is going on with Texas A&M. That beating was so severe, and so complete that you almost have to wonder if A&M was on the take, or infected with some sort of virus or something. If we look at the whole body of work, we'll notice that Alabama has scored 14 and 17 points in their SEC road games this year. The 17 against Ole Miss is understandable, given their defensive ability, but Arkansas is nothing close to the level of defense they will face this weekend, and they only managed 14 against them. Tennessee is ranked 16th in total defense, 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficency and 12 in passer rating against, so they have definitely earned their stripes on the defensive side of the ball. In order to cover a big number like this, I'm thinking Bama will either have to pitch a shutout or get multiple non-offensive TDs. That might happen, but I think Tennessee will give them their best effort of the year. The Ole Miss game from last week was much closer than the final score indicated. I think the Vols will give Bama a run for their money this week.

Love the write ups as usually man - does your opinion differ if the Tenn starting QB is going to miss the game due to injury?

BOL this weekend!

 

[Element1]

9. Ohio State -13.5 @Penn State: I hemmed and hawed on this one because Penn State is almost never this big of a dog at home, but they have looked so bad on offense the past few weeks that I just couldn't pass this up. Christian Hackenberg has a rep as a future pro, but to me, the only pros he resembles are the likes of Blaine Gabbert and post Chicago Josh McCown. They've averaged 3.9 yards per play in Big Ten play, and other than Michigan, the defenses they've played are not the kind that shuts down a future pro QB. Defensively, their numbers are good, but they gave up long drives all day to Northwestern and even Michigan's weak offense scored on them when they needed to. This Ohio State offense has looked like a bunch of killers the last couple of weeks and dropped 52 points on a pretty competent defense in College Park earlier this year. Anything close to that kind of effort Saturday night will make this an easy cover. I see about a 38-13 type game here, unless Hackenberg and company find some semblance of an offense out of nowhere.

I believe PSU will be up for this game obviously as it is a night home game - however I do not see how they muster up any kind of offense here. OSU defense has been pretty good this season outside of letting a horrible VT offense score on them (though that was more on their offensive struggles early on). I agree with you in that I see this being a blow out as PSU cannot match OSU score for score here. The only way they stay in this game is with a defensive or special teams score.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Love the write ups as usually man - does your opinion differ if the Tenn starting QB is going to miss the game due to injury?

BOL this weekend!

Yes, definitely, especially if it's Nathan Peterman starting because that kid is not a D-1 quarterback. If that's the case, I can't see Tennessee scoring at all. They still might come close to covering but I'd be off it.

 

[Timh]

Brass BOL today and good write-ups. I'm down on OSU and UMass today and taking a long look at Minnesota. I don't understand why that line is so low.

10/24 03:51 PM PDT

College Football

GAME #165-166

Tennessee U - QB Justin Worley (Shoulder) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Alabama