Week 8 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

We figured last week had some great games lined up, and it didn't disappoint. Ohio State/Oregon was a great game to watch and it delivered with tons of drama, even if neither team has any danger of missing the playoff, regardless of the outcome of that one. LSU and Ole Miss was another great one, which may have eliminated Ole Miss from playoff contention unless they win out, which would be intriguing considering who's left on their schedule. This writeups went 9-6 last week thanks to some nice results late. I'll take it because it brought the season long total back even with a coin flip at 52-52-2. Lots of work left to do, but we've got half a season to do it. On to them week:

Boston College +7.5 LOSS
Indiana -6.5 WIN
UConn ML LOSS
Rutgers -4.5 LOSS
Army -17 PUSH
Virginia +21 WIN
South Carolina +1 WIN
Northwestern +8.5 LOSS
Charlotte +16 LOSS
Toledo +3 WIN
Michigan -4 LOSS
Maryland +7.5 WIN
Arkansas +2.5 LOSS
Texas +5 LOSS
West Virginia +3 LOSS
Kentucky -1.5 LOSS

5-10-1



Thursday:

1. Boston College +7.5 @Virginia Tech (BOL) : At the beginning of the year, I remarked that I thought Virginia Tech was overvalued coming off their nice year last year because almost all of the positive results were on the backs of some very weak opponents. I was eager to fade them when favored, and it's paid off a couple times this year. VT has had a couple of nice performances the past 2 weeks in a razor thin loss to Miami on the road followed up by a TCB performance at Stanford last week. Now they return home after being off last week to face a BC team that was also off. The last time VT was at home, they lost outright to Rutgers in a game that has not aged well. In that game, the Hokies gave up 422 yards and more than 10 yards per attempt to Athan Kaliakmanis, who since then has shit the bed in consecutive weeks to the tune of 39% completions and just barely over 4 yards per pass attempt. The off week for BC came at a good time because it allowed QB Thomas Castellanos another week to get healthy. He missed their game 2 weeks ago but came back in their loss to Virginia. He was a but shaky in that game, so a week off was probably what the doctor ordered to get healthy. When he plays, Castellanos averages 8.3 yards per attempt vs FBS opponents, which is good for 23rd in the country and gives them a clear advantage over the #62 pass D in VT. Also, BC has been very solid on defense, especially against the run (26th), which is VT's preferred method of attack. VT does not have the explosive type of offense that can run away from a good BC defense, and Castellanos should be able to put enough points on the board to give BC a shot to win in the 4th quarter. I have these two teams rated almost dead even, and I think BC will be looking to right the ship after a very subpar effort 2 weeks ago in Charlottesville. I like Bill O'Brien as a coach and I think he'll have a solid plan for the Eagles here. I have it capped as a stalemate at worst, so I'll definitely take the 7.5.

BC tried to make a hellacious comeback but the defense was much too pansy-like. Weak, frail, slow, dumb. They had it all. I do like the way VT looked though.

 

[C-MAN]

Yeah, like this one too. GL

 

[B.A.R.]

Think this is the right side!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I kind of wish someone would have told me that Castellanos was gonna come out wearing oven mitts and the BC defense was only playing 8 guys on defense and they're all weakling 7th graders.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @Indiana -6.5 v Nebraska (BR) : Indiana has not played a challenging schedule, but they've done they only thing they can do, which is handle the teams that have been put in front of them. It seems as though most people think Nebraska is the first test the Hoosiers have faced, and they're probably right as none of the Hoosiers first 6 opponents have a winning record. The toughest test was probably Maryland, who can at least boast wins over UConn and Virginia. Like everyone else on their schedule, the Hoosiers severely outgained the Terps by more than 100 yards, and still won going away coughing up a -4 turnover ratio. They rank highly in every category that I review, they are clearly well-coached, and they will be very motivated to play what will be viewed as heir Super Bowl thus far. I don't think Nebraska is worthy of that kind of emotion. Offensively, they haven't been able to run the ball at all, and I don't see them having success against the #13 run defense that completely shut down what had been a solid running game at Maryland with Roman Hemby. Dylan Raiola has been a very fun watch at QB for the Huskers, but he's been prone to bad plays when pressured, and I think Indiana will provide that, making Raiola uncomfortable and turnover prone. Nebraska's defense has been good, but Illinois moved it on them without much problem, and I think Indiana's offense with Rourke and a better running game can take advantage of this Nebraska defense which almost certainly will play worse on the road. I think Indiana is a legitimately good team, and I am skeptical that the Nebraska team we'll be seeing is a bit of a fraud. I should also mention that this is a special teams mismatch. Scott Frost's aura has still not been completely washed away yet by Matt Rhule, and the biggest evidence of that is on special terams where they are still missing field goals and losing hidden yards in the punting game.

WOW what a demolition. That was likely the last chance at value with Indiana, but how high can the books make them? Probably not high enough against Washington who I have no interest in backing as a dog in the Eastern time zone.

 

[B.A.R.]

2. @Indiana -6.5 v Nebraska (BR) : Indiana has not played a challenging schedule, but they've done they only thing they can do, which is handle the teams that have been put in front of them. It seems as though most people think Nebraska is the first test the Hoosiers have faced, and they're probably right as none of the Hoosiers first 6 opponents have a winning record. The toughest test was probably Maryland, who can at least boast wins over UConn and Virginia. Like everyone else on their schedule, the Hoosiers severely outgained the Terps by more than 100 yards, and still won going away coughing up a -4 turnover ratio. They rank highly in every category that I review, they are clearly well-coached, and they will be very motivated to play what will be viewed as heir Super Bowl thus far. I don't think Nebraska is worthy of that kind of emotion. Offensively, they haven't been able to run the ball at all, and I don't see them having success against the #13 run defense that completely shut down what had been a solid running game at Maryland with Roman Hemby. Dylan Raiola has been a very fun watch at QB for the Huskers, but he's been prone to bad plays when pressured, and I think Indiana will provide that, making Raiola uncomfortable and turnover prone. Nebraska's defense has been good, but Illinois moved it on them without much problem, and I think Indiana's offense with Rourke and a better running game can take advantage of this Nebraska defense which almost certainly will play worse on the road. I think Indiana is a legitimately good team, and I am skeptical that the Nebraska team we'll be seeing is a bit of a fraud.

Game of the week in conference -- excited to watch this one!

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @UConn ML(-120) v Wake Forest: This is a bit of a strange scheduling quirk as Wake travels to UConn in the middle of the conference season. It represents a big game for UConn, as they don't get many chances to play Power 4 teams at home. Also, I think there is renewed emphasis on getting this football program rolling for UConn because it's clear that they want to get into a bigger conference. They were begging to get in the Big 12, and their basketball program makes them worthy for consideration, but they got stiff-armed by the Big 12 presidents because the perception of the football program is so bad. This is a big game for them, and I like how this matches up for them, especially since they've had 2 weeks to prepare for it. UConn hasn't fared well in their first two shots against Duke and Maryland, but I think this Wake defense is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping their offense. Wake has played some good offenses, but they've given up 400+ yards to every FBS team they've played, including NC State who has had all kinds of problems, and a similar offense to UConn in La La, who put up 41 on them and beat them outright in Winston Salem. UConn has a solid running game with 3 guys who average 5 yards a carry and they have two Big Ten transfers who were starters at their previous schools at receiver in Skyler Bell(Wisconsin) and TJ Sheffield(Purdue). I'm not sure who will be starting at QB (either Fagnano or Evers), but both have been fine and I think either can be successful here. I'm also not sure of the spot for Wake, and he fact that UConn is favored here I think says something. UConn has had some very impressive games(albeit against weak opponents) but they've been dominating efforts, and I think coming off a less than impressive win their last time out(they burned me against Temple) will make it likely that we get a good effort here.

At no point was UConn actually in danger of accomplishing anything in this game. Wake should not have worried for one milisecond.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Game of the week in conference -- excited to watch this one!

Agree! It's gonna tell us a lot about both teams...especially IU.

 

[2daBank]

Agree! It's gonna tell us a lot about both teams...especially IU.

I’m really leaning to corn with the points, hate being against you but at least one of us win!

 

[MikeU]

2. @Indiana -6.5 v Nebraska (BR) : Indiana has not played a challenging schedule, but they've done they only thing they can do, which is handle the teams that have been put in front of them. It seems as though most people think Nebraska is the first test the Hoosiers have faced, and they're probably right as none of the Hoosiers first 6 opponents have a winning record. The toughest test was probably Maryland, who can at least boast wins over UConn and Virginia. Like everyone else on their schedule, the Hoosiers severely outgained the Terps by more than 100 yards, and still won going away coughing up a -4 turnover ratio. They rank highly in every category that I review, they are clearly well-coached, and they will be very motivated to play what will be viewed as heir Super Bowl thus far. I don't think Nebraska is worthy of that kind of emotion. Offensively, they haven't been able to run the ball at all, and I don't see them having success against the #13 run defense that completely shut down what had been a solid running game at Maryland with Roman Hemby. Dylan Raiola has been a very fun watch at QB for the Huskers, but he's been prone to bad plays when pressured, and I think Indiana will provide that, making Raiola uncomfortable and turnover prone. Nebraska's defense has been good, but Illinois moved it on them without much problem, and I think Indiana's offense with Rourke and a better running game can take advantage of this Nebraska defense which almost certainly will play worse on the road. I think Indiana is a legitimately good team, and I am skeptical that the Nebraska team we'll be seeing is a bit of a fraud. I should also mention that this is a special teams mismatch. Scott Frost's aura has still not been completely washed away yet by Matt Rhule, and the biggest evidence of that is on special terams where they are still missing field goals and losing hidden yards in the punting game.

I like this and still think book makers aren’t giving Indiana they respect they deserve. I think they win by DD

 

[Br@ssknux]

I’m really leaning to corn with the points, hate being against you but at least one of us win!

I can see that, especially because Ruhle has been a good as a dog and Nebraska was pretty good in the role even when Frost was there.

 

[2daBank]

I can see that, especially because Ruhle has been a good as a dog and Nebraska was pretty good in the role even when Frost was there.

Just not sure on Hoosiers yet, this really the 1st real defense they facing. Should be interesting: won’t be a big play for me but think I’ll have little something on dog. If I lose it does always make me feel slightly better knowing someone I like/respect cashed (very slightly, lol).

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Rutgers -4.5 v UCLA (BR) : This is a good spot to go back to Rutgers in my opinion, although, wow, that was painful to watch last week. Let's think about this from UCLA's perspective though. They are coming off a brutal loss at home against Minnesota last week in which they snatched defeat from the jaws of voctory...one of the few chances they will likely have to get a Big Ten win, and now they have to fly all the back across the country for the third time in 5 weeks and play this Rutgers team that just got humiliated last week. The Bruins covered 3 in a row before last week, but all of those were as massive underdogs where all they had to do was rope a dope and get the clock to run out to get the cover against teams that only needed to throw their C game at them, and it seemed like that's all Oregon, Penn State and LSU were willing to use since they had bigger games on the horizon. That is not the case here. Rutgers needs this game desperately to snap a 2 game skid, and UCLA is only getting a handful of points as they jet across the country. Even the good teams from the west coast have had issues with doing this, so it's certainly not going to make things easy for the Bruins. The way to hurt Rutgers is to run on them but UCLA is not willing or able to do it. Their yards per carry numbers rank 130th out of 134 FBS teams, plus, the never run it anyway as Bienemy throws is almost 59% of the time, 13th most in the country. Rutgers strength on defense is their pass coverage, so Schaino and company are set up to see improvement on that side of the ball. This should also be a coaching mismatch, especially coming off that game last week, and Rutgers remains a good home favorite, 9-4 in the role since 2021. They're due.

And..Rutgers is still due. 300 yards in the first half and 478 for the game. Suffice it to say UCLA felt like the on deck batter feels when he takes the donut off the bat. They did whatever they wanted on offense. Sciano has some explaining to do. That's a couple of brutally embarassing efforts back to back on your home field

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Army -17 v ECU (BOL): I came into this week looking to fade the 2 juggernaut service academies, but after looking at this one closely, I'm laying it with Army. There's no doubt that we're buying Army at their peak here, but i am having a hard time seeing how ECU is going to do much of anything positive on either side of the ball. It's true that Army has racked up dominant numbers on a weak schedule of teams(Sagarin pegs it at 156th, so a lot of FCS teams have played tougher schedules), but they boast numbers that good teams have against schedules like that, and nobody has come within 17 points of them. Are they stepping up in class now with ECU? No, not really. ECU is 3-3 against Norfolk State, Old Dominion, Appy State, Liberty, UTSA and Charlotte. The latter 4 of that group all outgained the Pirates by 83 yards and Charlotte pummelled them 55-24 their last time out. If we're going to point out that Army is 6-0 against the 156th ranked schedule, we should also point out that ECU is 3-3 against the 127th ranked schedule per Sagarin. Also, in that last game, Charlotte ran for 311 yards and their top 2 tailbacks carried it 25 times for 259 yards. Now they have to face the Army offense that is ranked 2nd in the country in yards per carry? Last week ECU QB Jake Garcia got benched after going 6-8 for 111 yards but threw another crushing interception, his 12th of the year. That was enough apparently for Mike Houston who then went to Michigan State castoff Katin Houser who labored through 11/28, 84 yards performance for the rest of the game, but Houston never went back to Garcia despite that ineptitude. So Houston has to choose between one QB who clearly stinks or another who's a turnover machine. Not great options. I think Army keeps it going here on the Hudson.

Tragic backdoor after ECU converted on 4th and goal from the 10 and then hit on the 2PC. Unfortunately, the Cadets didn't care so much about ECU scoring at will in the 4th quarter. What a scramble by ECU and that stiff Katin Houser to get the money.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Virginia +21 @Clemson (BR) : Clemson has been very good since their opening week loss to Georgia, and frankly they've hardly even been challenged by anyone. This seems like a game that they might be able to be caught napping a little bit. It's an early start, under the radar and nobody is putting them on upset watch. It's probably with good reason because I don't see much chance of Virginia actually pulling off the upset, but stranger things have happened. Defensively, Clemson has just been ok, especially against the run as they rank only 89th in yards per carry against. Offensively, Cade Klubnik has been better for Clemson, but they have been really killing people on the ground with Phil Mafah. That's actually the strength of the Virginia defense, so if they can force Clemson into some third downs, they've got a good shot of getting off the field. QB Collandrea is a playmaker for Virginia and can do it as a dual threat. Since getting their footing about halfway through last year, Virginia has been very good in this role, and they're 6-0-1 in their last 7 on the road including an outright win and 3 very competitive games as a 20+ point underdog, having beaten Drake Maye and UNC as a 23 point dog, and covered easily against Louisville and Miami in the same spread neighborhood. This spot is in their wheelhouse and I think they have a shot to catch Clemson looking forward to their off week. Tony Elliott is also one of Dabo's former guys, so I doubt they'll be looking to rub it in.

These teams just kept scoring in the 4th quarter. Looked bad but Muskett came in and got couple late ones to save the cover. Clemson looks like they are capable of scoring pretty much whenever they want at this point. Virginia's defense isn't bad, and they were at Clemson's mercy. 11/17 on 3rd/4th down, balanced. They are good. Dabo letting Riley do his thing maybe?

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. South Carolina +1 @Oklahoma (BR) : This line keeps coming down as if everyone already knows the result. The more I look at this, I agree with the move. Both of these defenses should have no issues with the opposing offense, so much so, that someone who had a clue about playing totals would have to hesitate on the under because of the spectre of defensive TDs on both sides. In opinion however, South Carolina is much more equipped to have some success on offense than Oklahoma is. The Sooners have cracked 300 yards in a game only twice, one of which was a 388 yard explosion against mighty Temple. They sit at 4-2, but 3 of those wins could easily have been losses, so they're due. South Carolina on the other hand has had a couple of tough losses against a much tougher schedule, and that includes a 3 point loss to LSU and a 2 point loss on the road last week at Alabama. Oklahoma's offense reminds me of a worse version of Kentucky's which was ran off the field and overwhelmed by this South Carolina defense. OU cannot run the ball, and at last check, most if not all of OU's receivers remain on the shelf, so Michael Hawkins will have to fend for himself against one of the best front 7s in college football. LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecocks will have a hard time with the Sooners as well, but at least they showed some ability to throw it last week in Tuscaloosa, and Oklahoma's one defect on defense is that they are 87th in yards per attempt against and rank only 59th in their coverage grade per PFF. I like Gamecocks to win this one.

This was over before it started. I mentioned the spectre of defensive TDs? There were two of them in the 1st quarter for SC. SC gained 3.9 yards per play and ended up with 35 points. Of course, Oklahoma was only 3.5 per play, Back to Jackson Arnold for the Sooners? Does it matter?

 

[2daBank]

6. Virginia +21 @Clemson (BR) : Clemson has been very good since their opening week loss to Georgia, and frankly they've hardly even been challenged by anyone. This seems like a game that they might be able to be caught napping a little bit. It's an early start, under the radar and nobody is putting them on upset watch. It's probably with good reason because I don't see much chance of Virginia actually pulling off the upset, but stranger things have happened. Defensively, Clemson has just been ok, especially against the run as they rank only 89th in yards per carry against. Offensively, Cade Klubnik has been better for Clemson, but they have been really killing people on the ground with Phil Mafah. That's actually the strength of the Virginia defense, so if they can force Clemson into some third downs, they've got a good shot of getting off the field. QB Collandrea is a playmaker for Virginia and can do it as a dual threat. Since getting their footing about halfway through last year, Virginia has been very good in this role, and they're 6-0-1 in their last 7 on the road including an outright win and 3 very competitive games as a 20+ point underdog, having beaten Drake Maye and UNC as a 23 point dog, and covered easily against Louisville and Miami in the same spread neighborhood. This spot is in their wheelhouse and I think they have a shot to catch Clemson looking forward to their off week. Tony Elliott is also one of Dabo's former guys, so I doubt they'll be looking to rub it in.

Love klubnick passing prop over but I agree w this, actually need uva to stay within this number for Klubnick to cash!

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Northwestern +8.5 v Wisconsin (BR) : If Wisconsin gets me here I am going to lay off fading them, but I think they are due to come back to earth after a couple of weeks of out of body experiences for Braedyn Locke, who I am still not convinced is a good college QB. This week the Badgers will be facing a much better run defense in the Carts who rank 11th against the run on a per rush basis and play sound defense overall. Last year Northwestern went into Madison and completely flummoxed them, and now the Badgers have to play in Evanston(last game at the makeshift lakefront stadium that has been a big hit), where they've lost 6 of the last 8 times they've visited every one of those as a favorite. Defensively, Wisconsin's numbers have been skewed the last two weeks by a couple of weak offenses in Rutgers and pre-Ryan Browne Purdue, so I think Northwestern might have some success now that Jack Lausch has gotten comfortable. He didn't throw it much last week in their easy wn at Maryland but he hit for over 10 yards per attempt. Evanston has been a tough place for the Badgers in the past, so I'll take the TD+ here with the Cats.

Maybe I need to start showing some respect for the Badgers. When you play on Northwestern, you don't expect bone headedness, but that's what we got when Laucsh faded back into his own end zone with 40 seconds left in the half down 7. Fumble, gift TD right before the half for Wisconsin, game over. 209 total yards for the Cats though on 2-14 on 3rd down. Maybe Fickell starting to put it together. Home against Penn State next week. We'll see. I'll probably defect to the Badgers and get my head caved in.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ryan Brown's running strategy this week seems to be "stunned mouse in a dixie cup". Quite a departure from last week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Charlotte +16 @Navy (BOL) : I mentioned that I was looking to fade the service academy juggernauts this week. Army I couldn't justify(quite the opposite), but I can make a case for Charlotte in this one. There's no doubt that Navy has been great on offense, but unlike Army, they are not as reliable on defense. They're 5-0, and they had a nice win against Memphis, but other than that, they've beaten Temple, a UAB team that has very clearly quit and the worst Air Force team in your or my lifetime. By the way, in that Memphis game the Mids gave up 652 yards, which is 300 yards higher than the Tigers average output. The 49ers have won two in a row since going to DeShawn Purdie at QB, and last time out they exploded for 517 yards and 311 rushing against an allegedly good ECU defense(10th overall defensive grade via PFF). They might also get Max Browne back(Florida transfer), so they have a couple of viable options back there. I don't think Navy will be able to shut them down. Navy is 2-6 in their last 8 as a home favorite, and they have Notre Dame looming next week. I think this might be a spot where Navy has to work to get the win.

Idiotic

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Toledo +3 @Northern Illinois (BOL) : I was on Northern and faded Toledo last week, now I'm going the other way and taking Toledo over NIU this week. NIU is like two different teams depending on the situation. When they are dogged on the road, they cover at a high clip, but as a home favorite, they are 3-11 ATS since 2021. Things don't happen all that differently in these games, but the Huskies just find a way to lose, or at least fail to pull away from inferior teams. In this case, however, in addition to the cosmic hurdle they have as a home favorite, I think you can make a pretty good fundamental case for Toledo as well. They are wildly inconsistent, and showed the shitty side of that last week, especially on defense. This is also usually evident with QB Tucker Gleason, who has had stinkers as well as dynamite games this year. Last week he was bad. Bad enough in fact to get benched for backup John Allen Richter who came in and threw for 200+ in limited duty and a couple scores, but the Toledo defense couldn't get a stop. Toledo has been a dog only 6 times since '21 and they've covered 5 of them, including covering 3 of 4 on the road. NIU has a great defense, 5th in the country in yards per play in fact, but their offense is not good. QB Ethan Hampton left the game with an injury last week and his status in unknown. Their MO on offense regardless of who is in there is to run the ball, but Toledo stops the run well, and plays solid defense overall, ranking 12th against the run and 25th overall in yards per play against. The combination of this being a low scoring game with NIU's issues covering at home have me on Toledo, especially considering how well they fare in the road underdog role.

This didn't take any intellect, only observational skills.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Michigan -4 @Illinois (BOL) : You'll have to bear with me as an Illini fan and alum here because there's some institutional reasons for this play in addition to the fundamental matchup issues the Illini are likely to see here. The line is moving fast too, but i'd play it up to about 6 or 7. This is a big game for Illinois because it's the 100th anniversary to the day of the original dedication of Memorial Stadium in 1924. In that game, Red Grange had one of of not the most famous performances in college football history against Michigan when he scored ran for 4 TDs, threw for 2 and picked off 2 passes in a 39-14 win. For context, there were teams that went 3 years without scoring 6 TDs back then, and Michigan gave up something like 20 points in their previous 20 games and this maniac scored 4 TDs in a half. Anyway, it's a big deal and Illinois fans, happy so far with a 5-1 record, are due to have a crushing defeat, and this one looks like it will fit the bill. Almost all of Illinois success this year has been due to their passing game with Luke Altmyer and their two very good receivers and some playmaking DBs in the secondary. They have not been good on either line, and that's being kind. Michigan will have a mammoth edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Illinois cannot run the ball between the tackles at all, and their best ball carrier Kaeden Feagin looks like he might be out for the year. Defensively, they have been poor against the run, and that's all Michigan wants to do. I'm sure everyone saw that this defense gave up almost 400 yards and 46 points in the 2ND HALF to Purdue last week. Illinois could not stop them, regardless of what Purdue did. I certainly think that performance was a bit of an outlier, but the potential to have a game like that was always there. The Illinois OL is also struggling with pass protection, and Michigan has one of the best pass rushes in the country, which will likely make Altmyer find himself in a lot of uncomfortable spots that could lead to the turnovers he's avoided thus far this year. If the Illini can pull this off, it could propel them to a truly remarkable season because other than next week at Oregon, the remainder of the schedule looks manageable. I think the far more likely scenario(and one that has been repeated for the past 40 years of Illinois football existence) is that they drop this one, move to 5-2 with Michigan avoiding falling to 4-3 and proceed with a decent year, which is what their numbers say they've played to anyway. Michigan also had a week off to incorporate Jack Tuttle into the offense. He stinks, but they probably will only need him to hand off and make a couple underneath throws to whoever suits up at tight end for them to get what they'll need offensively. I hope I'm wrong, but I see this as a 24-13 type game.

Well, I was happily wrong. I thought Michigan would dominate the trenches. Rushing yards IL 187-114. Sacks: IL 5-1. The fact that Michigan thought their savior was going to be a 7th year college QB who previously was never good enough to get on the field is pretty astounding. Illinois only had 267 yards(which was held down by Michigan's constant holding of Illinois receivers) but they were in Michigan territory the whole game. Good job by Bielema in the field position game, including a well executed and timed fake punt that ended up getting them points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @Maryland +7.5(-115) v USC(BOL) : This is a terrible spot fr USC, who finds themselves now 3-3 after a tough loss to Penn State in a game they outplayed the Nittany Lions for long stretches. Now they make their third sizable road trip, the first two of which resulted in shit performances to the Eastern time zone to play a Maryland team that is coming off it's worst performance of the year in a blowout loss at home to Northwestern. USC has been dreadful on the road, and Riley has failed to cover 5 in a row as a road favorite including the 2 he blew outright earlier this year. USC is also banged up on defense up front. After losing Bear Alexander when he quit the team, they now are without Eric Gentry and Anthony Lucas, who was all over the field in the Penn State game and was probably the best defender the Trojans had this year. Maryland looked terrible last week, but I've been impressed with QB Billy Edwards. According to PFF he's made 19 big time throws which is 2nd most in the country to only 6 turnover worthy plays. he has two very solid receivers in Tai Felton and Kaden Prather, so i think they'll be able to move the ball. They've also been good against the run, which surprisingly has been USC's calling card on offense. Perhaps Miller Moss can get the downfield passing game going, but he's been mostly sticking to the short stuff lately, so we'll see if that changes. If not, I think more than a TD is going to be hard to manage for the trojans here in such a tough spot.

Really good game from Billy Edwards here and the Terps needed every bit of it. Lost the turnover battle, had 3 SOD and went 2/13 on 3rd down but still found a way to win. Not sure where this leaves USC. The Big Ten travel issue is definitely a major detriment to these road teams.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Arkansas +2.5 v LSU(BR) : So far this year, Sam Pittman has done a good job righting the ship, and he's back in a role that suits him, which is an underdog of any kind. He's 21-9 as a dog since he got to Arkansas in 2020, and he's been great against ranked opponents as well. It's a really bad spot for LSU, who is coming off a scintillating win at home last Saturday night against Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Arkansas had the week off to prepare for them and the two coordinators at Arkansas (Petrino and Williams) either have or are gaining a reputation of being very good game planners. LSU's defense remains shaky, and they gave up 33 points to South Carolina's offense, which is a poor man's version of what Arkansas does. I'm a bit concerned about the LSU pass rush, but Taylen Green is someone who can escape the rush. Pittman has been coy about Green's availability since he came out of their last game against Tennessee, but a couple podcasts have confirmed that Green is ready to go. The last 4 times these two teams have played the games have come down to the wire, so if you can get 3 in this one(I couldn't find one under -125), chances are it will matter if Arkansas doesn't pull off the outright. The Hogs are 4-1-1 in the last 6 ATS in this rivalry, and this spot is about as good as it gets. I'll take the points here with the Hogs.

This was 100% a feel play because my numbers were screaming for LSU, more proof that I have zero feel right now, Very surprised Arkansas could not run the ball at all and after Jackson got hurt, they abandoned it. 3/0 on turnovers didn't help either. When you're strictly a Taylen Green chucks it offense, you're in trouble and so are your backers.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. @Texas -5 v Georgia (BOL) : I know there are a lot of people that would look at his line and take the points with Georgia on principle. I would too if there was evidence that this Georgia team resembles Georgia teams of the past few years, but the results and data say they don't. We are now in the 8th week of the season. The best teams in the country differentiate themselves from everyone else by showing up at the top of various national counting stats. For example, Texas is 10th in yards per play on offense, 1st in yards per play allowed on defense. They're in the top 10 on both sides of the ball on 3rd down. They're 1st in yards per pass attempt against. This is also the case for teams like Ohio State, Miami, Oregon, etc. Not Georgia. I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago when they failed to cover a 23 point spread against Auburn and it was true prior to them beating Mississippi State, one of the worst SEC teams of the past 5-7 years at least, by 10. Here are some of Georgia's rankings: They're 65th in yards per carry on offense. They're 76th on 3rd down offense. They rank 67th in overall yards per play against on defense. They're 74th in yards per pass attempt against. They're 86th in sack rate. This is a mediocre statistical team. Now having said that, I don't actually think they are mediocre, but I see why they are a 5 point dog at Texas, and I think Texas is going to cover that. It's very rare that a team has an edge in all 10 categories I compare teams against each other unit by unit, but Texas swept the categories for this game. That hardly ever happens this late in the season, and when it does, the 10-0 team is usually a 20+ point favorite. With that being the case, 5 doesn't seem like a lot, even though our perception would tell us that Georgia getting 5 should be an auto play. It's true that Texas has played some questionable offenses, but the difference in schedules should not result in this big of a stats discrepancy this deep into the season.

Kudos to Georgia. Another example of no feel. Georgia had to have this game and from Texas's perspective, it was a nice game to win. Based on the numbers I was going to be on Texas regardless, but obviously Georgia put together a great performance, winning on the road despite Beck having some horrible moments.

 

[Br@ssknux]

15. @West Virginia +3 v Kansas State (BR) : Last week the Mountaineers had a chance to make a splash in a home dog situation, but they ran into a bit of a buzzsaw in Iowa State. They get another chance this week in hosting a ranked Kansas State squad, and I don't think they'll blow two in a row. West Virginia's major issue is their pass defense, but throwing the ball is not Avery Johnson and Kansas State's MO on offense. They want to run it, which is what WVU defends much better. On the flip side, Kansas State is very similar on defense, good against the run but struggles against the pass. West Virginia also likes to run it, but Garrett Greene has grown into a pretty good passer, and the 'eers are a competent passing offense, which is good because K State is ranked 104th against the pass. K State is also coming off a tough late night game last week and has to go right back on the road again this week. They're favored again, and even after a pretty good performance last week, they are 2-6-2 ATS as a road favorite in their last 10. WVU is balanced on offense and will be looking to make amends for last week's blown chance. I think both teams will see a departure from what they did last week in this one.

Everything I said positively about WV needs to be re-thought because none of it was evident. Greene got hurt, but they were going nowhere with him anyway. K State was giving up passing yards to everyone coming in and they stuffed WV in all areas. 2 total stinkbombs in a row for the Mountaineers. Another game where I completely misjudged the effort.

 

[Br@ssknux]

16. Kentucky -1.5 @Florida (BOL) : Bad timing for Florida here as Kentucky comes to town off an embarrassing performance, getting beat outright at home as a 2TD favorite last week by Vanderbilt. The last time that happened, the Cats were run off the field at home by South Carolina, then responded by losing by a point to Georgia and then beating previously unbeaten Ole Miss on their home field in consecutive weeks. Now they move in to play Florida who will be without Graham Mertz, giving them the opportunity to unleash that elite front 7 on Freshman DJ Lagway. In addition, although Florida has gotten better on defense, I still am not sold on their coverage, so Brock Vandagriff should have a solid comfort level as he's surveying the field. Also, Mark Stoops has absolutely owned Florida over the past several years, having covered 7 straight meetings, including outright wins the last 3 years, two as a TD underdog. I think Lagway is going to have major problems with this defense, and I think Kentucky bounces back from the unpleasantness of last weekend.

I don't even want to try to explain how DJ Lagway and the Gator offense had 8 yards per play against that Kentucky defense coming off a loss. He averaged 18 yards per pass attempt!!! No idea on that one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

That's it for now. Might add one or two more. Will decide tomorrow AM. I'll also throw in some thoughts on the ones I thought about but laid off.

 

[M.W.]

6. Virginia +21 @Clemson (BR) : Clemson has been very good since their opening week loss to Georgia, and frankly they've hardly even been challenged by anyone. This seems like a game that they might be able to be caught napping a little bit. It's an early start, under the radar and nobody is putting them on upset watch. It's probably with good reason because I don't see much chance of Virginia actually pulling off the upset, but stranger things have happened. Defensively, Clemson has just been ok, especially against the run as they rank only 89th in yards per carry against. Offensively, Cade Klubnik has been better for Clemson, but they have been really killing people on the ground with Phil Mafah. That's actually the strength of the Virginia defense, so if they can force Clemson into some third downs, they've got a good shot of getting off the field. QB Collandrea is a playmaker for Virginia and can do it as a dual threat. Since getting their footing about halfway through last year, Virginia has been very good in this role, and they're 6-0-1 in their last 7 on the road including an outright win and 3 very competitive games as a 20+ point underdog, having beaten Drake Maye and UNC as a 23 point dog, and covered easily against Louisville and Miami in the same spread neighborhood. This spot is in their wheelhouse and I think they have a shot to catch Clemson looking forward to their off week. Tony Elliott is also one of Dabo's former guys, so I doubt they'll be looking to rub it in.

Clemson under Dabo is rarely caught napping against a team it didn't play the year before, as in 17-1 ATS by an average of 14 points when favored by 6.5 to 47 points after game 5 of the season under Dabo.

Also, from game 7 on, teams tend to do well at home after a blowout win on the road. The most profitable angles involve additional parameters, but the last time Clemson was in the strongest of the bunch, Clemson was off a 63-3 win at Wake and then came home to beat Louisville 77-16. This week Clemson fits in the best of these angles, along with Tulane and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Mizzou.

UVA is 6-0 ATS as a conference road dog under Elliott, but all those games were instances in which UVA was helped by a severe downgrading of its power rating (they covered by 77.5, but the lines were 92.5 points more favorable than in the prior meetings). In each of those 6 ATS wins, the Hoos were getting from 10 to 22 more points than in the last matchup. In this one, they're getting 8 points fewer.

Looking forward to the off week is a legitimate concern. In weeks 7-9 under Dabo, Clemson is 0-5 ATS before an open date. Also, the under is 12-0 if Clemson goes into an open date (at any time of the season) off a win of 15+.

 

[M.W.]

3. @UConn ML(-120) v Wake Forest: This is a bit of a strange scheduling quirk as Wake travels to UConn in the middle of the conference season. It represents a big game for UConn, as they don't get many chances to play Power 4 teams at home. Also, I think there is renewed emphasis on getting this football program rolling for UConn because it's clear that they want to get into a bigger conference. They were begging to get in the Big 12, and their basketball program makes them worthy for consideration, but they got stiff-armed by the Big 12 presidents because the perception of the football program is so bad. This is a big game for them, and I like how this matches up for them, especially since they've had 2 weeks to prepare for it. UConn hasn't fared well in their first two shots against Duke and Maryland, but I think this Wake defense is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping their offense. Wake has played some good offenses, but they've given up 400+ yards to every FBS team they've played, including NC State who has had all kinds of problems, and a similar offense to UConn in La La, who put up 41 on them and beat them outright in Winston Salem. UConn has a solid running game with 3 guys who average 5 yards a carry and they have two Big Ten transfers who were starters at their previous schools at receiver in Skyler Bell(Wisconsin) and TJ Sheffield(Purdue). I'm not sure who will be starting at QB (either Fagnano or Evers), but both have been fine and I think either can be successful here. I'm also not sure of the spot for Wake, and he fact that UConn is favored here I think says something. UConn has had some very impressive games(albeit against weak opponents) but they've been dominating efforts, and I think coming off a less than impressive win their last time out(they burned me against Temple) will make it likely that we get a good effort here.

Your comments about UConn's motivations are interesting and something I hadn't taken into account, but in my experience this is the kind of game Wake wins. At Wake, against teams with winning records, Clawson is 15-0 ATS on the road after a home game if the home game was not a blowout win for Wake (22+) and the last meeting between Wake and this week's opponent was not a blowout win for Wake (22+). I have a big bet on Wake, as well as Clemson. We'll see how it goes.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Your comments about UConn's motivations are interesting and something I hadn't taken into account, but in my experience this is the kind of game Wake wins. At Wake, against teams with winning records, Clawson is 15-0 ATS on the road after a home game if the home game was not a blowout win for Wake (22+) and the last meeting between Wake and this week's opponent was not a blowout win for Wake (22+). I have a big bet on Wake, as well as Clemson. We'll see how it goes.

Well, my history when challenged by you is not good. I would rather we were on the same side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Clemson under Dabo is rarely caught napping against a team it didn't play the year before, as in 17-1 ATS by an average of 14 points when favored by 6.5 to 47 points after game 5 of the season under Dabo.

Also, from game 7 on, teams tend to do well at home after a blowout win on the road. The most profitable angles involve additional parameters, but the last time Clemson was in the strongest of the bunch, Clemson was off a 63-3 win at Wake and then came home to beat Louisville 77-16. This week Clemson fits in the best of these angles, along with Tulane and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Mizzou.

UVA is 6-0 ATS as a conference road dog under Elliott, but all those games were instances in which UVA was helped by a severe downgrading of its power rating (they covered by 77.5, but the lines were 92.5 points more favorable than in the prior meetings). In each of those 6 ATS wins, the Hoos were getting from 10 to 22 more points than in the last matchup. In this one, they're getting 8 points fewer.

Looking forward to the off week is a legitimate concern. In weeks 7-9 under Dabo, Clemson is 0-5 ATS before an open date. Also, the under is 12-0 if Clemson goes into an open date (at any time of the season) off a win of 15+.

Can you clarify that last sentence? In what game is the under 12-0? The last one before the open date? Does that mean if Clemson wins the last game before the open date, that game is also12-0 to the under, or is the 15+ the game before the game that goes into the open date? Hope that makes sense.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

11. Michigan -4 @Illinois (BOL) : You'll have to bear with me as an Illini fan and alum here because there's some institutional reasons for this play in addition to the fundamental matchup issues the Illini are likely to see here. The line is moving fast too, but i'd play it up to about 6 or 7. This is a big game for Illinois because it's the 100th anniversary to the day of the original dedication of Memorial Stadium in 1924. In that game, Red Grange had one of of not the most famous performances in college football history against Michigan when he scored ran for 4 TDs, threw for 2 and picked off 2 passes in a 39-14 win. For context, there were teams that went 3 years without scoring 6 TDs back then, and Michigan gave up something like 20 points in their previous 20 games and this maniac scored 4 TDs in a half. Anyway, it's a big deal and Illinois fans, happy so far with a 5-1 record, are due to have a crushing defeat, and this one looks like it will fit the bill. Almost all of Illinois success this year has been due to their passing game with Luke Altmyer and their two very good receivers and some playmaking DBs in the secondary. They have not been good on either line, and that's being kind. Michigan will have a mammoth edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Illinois cannot run the ball between the tackles at all, and their best ball carrier Kaeden Feagin looks like he might be out for the year. Defensively, they have been poor against the run, and that's all Michigan wants to do. I'm sure everyone saw that this defense gave up almost 400 yards and 46 points in the 2ND HALF to Purdue last week. Illinois could not stop them, regardless of what Purdue did. I certainly think that performance was a bit of an outlier, but the potential to have a game like that was always there. The Illinois OL is also struggling with pass protection, and Michigan has one of the best pass rushes in the country, which will likely make Altmyer find himself in a lot of uncomfortable spots that could lead to the turnovers he's avoided thus far this year. If the Illini can pull this off, it could propel them to a truly remarkable season because other than next week at Oregon, the remainder of the schedule looks manageable. I think the far more likely scenario(and one that has been repeated for the past 40 years of Illinois football existence) is that they drop this one, move to 5-2 with Michigan avoiding falling to 4-3 and proceed with a decent year, which is what their numbers say they've played to anyway. Michigan also had a week off to incorporate Jack Tuttle into the offense. He stinks, but they probably will only need him to hand off and make a couple underneath throws to whoever suits up at tight end for them to get what they'll need offensively. I hope I'm wrong, but I see this as a 24-13 type game.

This is good reinforcement for my instinctive feeling that Michigan covers this game. While you make good analytical points (mismatches up front, etc.), my opinion is based more on a "feel" that we see a businesslike Michigan performance, where they control things in a somewhat boring game, and Illinois merely provides some competent opposition. My base case would be something like 24-13.

 

[M.W.]

Well, my history when challenged by you is not good. I would rather we were on the same side.

Clemson has been lethargic with a terrible giveaway. You may be right on this one. We shall see.

I fell better about Wake, but that’s far from over.

 

[M.W.]

Can you clarify that last sentence? In what game is the under 12-0? The last one before the open date? Does that mean if Clemson wins the last game before the open date, that game is also12-0 to the under, or is the 15+ the game before the game that goes into the open date? Hope that makes sense.

The game before the open date. Like the one at halftime right now.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Wow, another bad week. I really just have no feel for this right now. Teams that I think will have good efforts are just shitting the bed. 5-10-1 by my count. This is officially fade material. Need to get back at it tomorrow and see what next week brings. I'll add comments here in a bit.

 

[Br@ssknux]

One other thing about this week. I'm not what I would call a trends player, but I pay attention to extremes in certain roles, like Home favorite, home dog, road favorite, road dog. Every week I compile a list of teams that are either 67% or better or 33% or worse in that role. This week, if you played those teams in those roles, you would have been 7-16.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Wow, another bad week. I really just have no feel for this right now. Teams that I think will have good efforts are just shitting the bed. 5-10-1 by my count. This is officially fade material. Need to get back at it tomorrow and see what next week brings. I'll add comments here in a bit.

Temporary only. Your writeups and analyses are always essential reads. Thanks for your contributions to this site.

 

[B.A.R.]

Temporary only. Your writeups and analyses are always essential reads. Thanks for your contributions to this site.

This.

The first season with a playoff is showing us some different things in my opinion.

 

[BiffTFinancial]

One other thing about this week. I'm not what I would call a trends player, but I pay attention to extremes in certain roles, like Home favorite, home dog, road favorite, road dog. Every week I compile a list of teams that are either 67% or better or 33% or worse in that role. This week, if you played those teams in those roles, you would have been 7-16.

This is a great point and observation. It was a weird week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Temporary only. Your writeups and analyses are always essential reads. Thanks for your contributions to this site.

Much appreciated Frank an Biff and BAR as always. Let's see what we can come up with this week.

 

[FadeTheHype]

Wow, another bad week. I really just have no feel for this right now. Teams that I think will have good efforts are just shitting the bed. 5-10-1 by my count. This is officially fade material. Need to get back at it tomorrow and see what next week brings. I'll add comments here in a bit.

Hang in there. The public has been reaping benefits all season until last week. Keep on playing Indiana though, they are for real.