Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
We figured last week had some great games lined up, and it didn't disappoint. Ohio State/Oregon was a great game to watch and it delivered with tons of drama, even if neither team has any danger of missing the playoff, regardless of the outcome of that one. LSU and Ole Miss was another great one, which may have eliminated Ole Miss from playoff contention unless they win out, which would be intriguing considering who's left on their schedule. This writeups went 9-6 last week thanks to some nice results late. I'll take it because it brought the season long total back even with a coin flip at 52-52-2. Lots of work left to do, but we've got half a season to do it. On to them week:
Thursday:
1. Boston College +7.5 @Virginia Tech (BOL) : At the beginning of the year, I remarked that I thought Virginia Tech was overvalued coming off their nice year last year because almost all of the positive results were on the backs of some very weak opponents. I was eager to fade them when favored, and it's paid off a couple times this year. VT has had a couple of nice performances the past 2 weeks in a razor thin loss to Miami on the road followed up by a TCB performance at Stanford last week. Now they return home after being off last week to face a BC team that was also off. The last time VT was at home, they lost outright to Rutgers in a game that has not aged well. In that game, the Hokies gave up 422 yards and more than 10 yards per attempt to Athan Kaliakmanis, who since then has shit the bed in consecutive weeks to the tune of 39% completions and just barely over 4 yards per pass attempt. The off week for BC came at a good time because it allowed QB Thomas Castellanos another week to get healthy. He missed their game 2 weeks ago but came back in their loss to Virginia. He was a but shaky in that game, so a week off was probably what the doctor ordered to get healthy. When he plays, Castellanos averages 8.3 yards per attempt vs FBS opponents, which is good for 23rd in the country and gives them a clear advantage over the #62 pass D in VT. Also, BC has been very solid on defense, especially against the run (26th), which is VT's preferred method of attack. VT does not have the explosive type of offense that can run away from a good BC defense, and Castellanos should be able to put enough points on the board to give BC a shot to win in the 4th quarter. I have these two teams rated almost dead even, and I think BC will be looking to right the ship after a very subpar effort 2 weeks ago in Charlottesville. I like Bill O'Brien as a coach and I think he'll have a solid plan for the Eagles here. I have it capped as a stalemate at worst, so I'll definitely take the 7.5.
Thursday:
1. Boston College +7.5 @Virginia Tech (BOL) : At the beginning of the year, I remarked that I thought Virginia Tech was overvalued coming off their nice year last year because almost all of the positive results were on the backs of some very weak opponents. I was eager to fade them when favored, and it's paid off a couple times this year. VT has had a couple of nice performances the past 2 weeks in a razor thin loss to Miami on the road followed up by a TCB performance at Stanford last week. Now they return home after being off last week to face a BC team that was also off. The last time VT was at home, they lost outright to Rutgers in a game that has not aged well. In that game, the Hokies gave up 422 yards and more than 10 yards per attempt to Athan Kaliakmanis, who since then has shit the bed in consecutive weeks to the tune of 39% completions and just barely over 4 yards per pass attempt. The off week for BC came at a good time because it allowed QB Thomas Castellanos another week to get healthy. He missed their game 2 weeks ago but came back in their loss to Virginia. He was a but shaky in that game, so a week off was probably what the doctor ordered to get healthy. When he plays, Castellanos averages 8.3 yards per attempt vs FBS opponents, which is good for 23rd in the country and gives them a clear advantage over the #62 pass D in VT. Also, BC has been very solid on defense, especially against the run (26th), which is VT's preferred method of attack. VT does not have the explosive type of offense that can run away from a good BC defense, and Castellanos should be able to put enough points on the board to give BC a shot to win in the 4th quarter. I have these two teams rated almost dead even, and I think BC will be looking to right the ship after a very subpar effort 2 weeks ago in Charlottesville. I like Bill O'Brien as a coach and I think he'll have a solid plan for the Eagles here. I have it capped as a stalemate at worst, so I'll definitely take the 7.5.
